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Basketball Prospectus

Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Baseball Prospectus

DEFENSIVE LINES 2007

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 12/31/2007

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

  • Losses: 120% value
  • 0-4 Yards: 100% value
  • 5-10 Yards: 50% value
  • 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, and situation, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (current baseline: 4.08). Defensive line stats (more accurately, defensive front seven stats) represent the performance of offensive lines against each defense, adjusted for the quality of offensive opponents. These stats are explained further here.

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

  • RB Yards: Yards per carry by running backs against this defense, according to standard NFL numbers.
  • 10+ Yards: Percentage of rushing yards against this team more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat. Teams are ranked from smallest number of 10+ Yards (#1) to largest number of 10+ Yards (#32).
  • Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks. Teams are ranked from lowest power success percentage allowed (#1) to highest power success percentage allowed (#32).
  • Stuffed: Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down. Ranked from most stuffs (#1) to fewest stuffs (#32).

NFL averages for each stat given in red.

Why are these rankings different from the team defense DVOA ratings for rushing? Among other reasons, they don't include quarterbacks or fumbles, long runs are truncated, and a different set of adjustments is used, attempting to isolate line play rather than total team defense.

A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in 10+ Yards has a strong defensive line but its linebackers and secondary have difficulty in pursuit and tackling. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in 10+ Yards generally allows runners to get past the defensive line but the linebackers and secondary are good at pursuit and tackling. A low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards with a high ranking in 10+ Yards is often an indicator of a 3-4 defensive scheme, though there are exceptions.

Stats in blue represent pass rush. Teams are ranked according to adjusted sack rate, which gives sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance. Pass rush stats are explained further here. Our sack totals may differ slightly from official NFL totals depending on the league's retroactive statistical adjustments.

RUN BLOCKING PASS PROTECTION
TEAM Adj. Line
Yards 		 RB
Yards		 Power
Success		 Power
Rank		 10+
Yards		 10+
Rank		 Stuffed Stuffed
Rank		 TEAM Sack
Rank		 Sacks Adj.
Sack Rate
1 BAL 3.35 3.03 56% 8 12% 6 31% 2 NYG 1 53 8.8%
2 MIN 3.39 3.28 54% 6 12% 5 31% 1 NE 2 47 8.4%
3 NYG 3.83 4.01 63% 17 20% 23 28% 6 KC 3 37 7.9%
4 SEA 3.83 4.11 60% 13 24% 30 29% 5 DAL 4 46 7.8%
5 PIT 3.91 3.84 55% 7 16% 13 25% 12 CHI 5 41 7.6%
6 TEN 3.91 4.11 78% 31 18% 21 27% 10 PHI 6 37 7.4%
7 CHI 3.93 4.55 57% 10 28% 32 29% 3 SEA 7 45 7.3%
8 DAL 3.93 4.01 67% 21 19% 22 28% 7 MIA 8 30 7.3%
9 ARI 3.97 3.86 78% 32 16% 15 25% 15 TEN 9 40 7.2%
10 CAR 3.99 3.85 53% 3 16% 14 25% 14 JAC 10 37 7.2%
11 PHI 4.00 3.89 59% 11 18% 20 27% 9 PIT 11 36 7.2%
12 IND 4.01 3.80 71% 26 11% 4 24% 16 SD 12 42 7.0%
13 KC 4.03 4.56 60% 14 22% 28 27% 8 TB 13 33 7.0%
14 SF 4.09 3.87 70% 25 14% 8 23% 17 BAL 14 32 6.9%
15 NO 4.15 3.97 62% 16 15% 11 22% 24 NYJ 15 29 6.6%
16 BUF 4.16 4.59 50% 2 21% 25 26% 11 DET 16 37 6.2%
RUN BLOCKING PASS PROTECTION
TEAM Adj. Line
Yards 		 RB
Yards		 Power
Success		 Power
Rank		 10+
Yards		 10+
Rank		 Stuffed Stuffed
Rank		 TEAM Sack
Rank		 Sacks Adj.
Sack Rate
17 WAS 4.19 3.67 65% 20 8% 1 23% 20 STL 17 31 6.2%
18 GB 4.19 4.04 65% 18 15% 10 22% 22 IND 18 28 6.1%
19 NE 4.20 4.40 68% 23 17% 17 21% 26 DEN 19 33 6.1%
20 CIN 4.21 4.49 54% 5 23% 29 22% 25 ARI 20 37 6.0%
21 STL 4.22 4.34 54% 4 21% 24 29% 4 ATL 21 25 6.0%
22 TB 4.28 3.88 73% 28 11% 3 20% 29 GB 22 36 6.0%
23 DET 4.34 4.60 67% 22 21% 26 22% 23 HOU 23 31 6.0%
24 JAC 4.35 4.20 57% 9 14% 7 25% 13 OAK 24 27 5.8%
25 HOU 4.36 4.33 76% 29 17% 18 19% 30 SF 25 31 5.8%
26 OAK 4.42 5.06 72% 27 25% 31 23% 19 WAS 26 33 5.7%
27 DEN 4.42 4.69 59% 12 21% 27 23% 18 NO 27 32 5.6%
28 ATL 4.47 4.40 62% 15 16% 16 21% 27 MIN 28 38 5.5%
29 SD 4.49 4.25 65% 19 16% 12 19% 31 CLE 29 28 4.8%
30 CLE 4.53 4.40 48% 1 15% 9 22% 21 CAR 30 23 4.8%
31 MIA 4.57 4.58 70% 24 18% 19 20% 28 BUF 31 26 4.7%
32 NYJ 4.88 4.32 78% 30 9% 2 16% 32 CIN 32 22 3.8%
x NFL x 4.17 63% x 18% x 24% x NFL x 34 6.4%

This second table lists each team's Adjusted Line Yards in each direction listed in official NFL play-by-play, along with rank among the 32 teams. Only five directions are listed because research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard. It's early in the season, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. These runs are from the perspective of the OFFENSE, so a run listed as LEFT TACKLE is actually at the RIGHT defensive end.

    LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
  TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
1 BAL 2.76 3 2.86 1 3.55 2 3.44 3 2.47 2
2 MIN 2.80 4 4.19 17 2.89 1 4.17 18 4.51 24
3 NYG 2.97 6 4.62 22 3.72 3 3.46 4 4.45 22
4 SEA 4.33 20 3.79 10 3.88 4 3.98 15 2.66 3
5 PIT 5.72 32 3.68 8 4.15 14 3.39 2 2.34 1
6 TEN 3.37 8 4.29 18 4.01 11 2.95 1 4.46 23
7 CHI 4.80 25 3.40 2 3.93 8 3.96 14 3.93 12
8 DAL 2.95 5 3.78 9 4.09 13 4.06 16 4.14 16
9 ARI 3.62 9 3.45 3 3.89 5 5.13 30 3.82 10
10 CAR 2.40 2 4.11 12 4.21 18 3.53 5 4.81 27
11 PHI 3.82 13 3.59 6 4.22 19 3.93 13 4.05 15
12 IND 3.83 14 3.52 4 4.16 15 4.77 26 3.28 7
13 KC 3.65 11 3.53 5 3.95 9 3.92 12 5.18 31
14 SF 3.67 12 4.00 11 4.41 26 4.13 17 3.08 6
15 NO 5.29 29 4.18 16 3.96 10 3.60 6 4.73 26
16 BUF 1.50 1 4.11 13 4.19 17 4.40 21 5.75 32
    LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
  TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
17 WAS 4.36 21 4.80 26 3.90 6 4.38 20 4.14 17
18 GB 4.83 26 4.74 25 3.92 7 4.69 25 2.86 5
19 NE 4.28 19 4.11 14 4.26 20 4.84 27 2.72 4
20 CIN 3.26 7 4.87 27 4.03 12 5.00 29 4.30 18
21 STL 3.62 10 4.14 15 4.35 23 3.88 9 5.16 30
22 TB 4.16 18 3.65 7 4.58 31 4.68 24 3.34 8
23 DET 4.08 16 4.43 20 5.09 32 4.25 19 3.73 9
24 JAC 3.99 15 4.43 19 4.46 28 4.85 28 4.01 13
25 HOU 4.51 24 4.73 23 4.40 25 3.66 7 4.33 19
26 OAK 4.47 23 5.07 28 4.43 27 3.91 10 4.39 21
27 DEN 4.44 22 4.46 21 4.19 16 5.27 32 4.02 14
28 ATL 5.03 27 4.74 24 4.47 29 3.91 11 4.69 25
29 SD 5.40 30 6.03 32 4.30 22 3.81 8 3.83 11
30 CLE 4.16 17 5.13 29 4.39 24 4.46 22 4.81 28
31 MIA 5.54 31 5.33 30 4.26 21 4.62 23 4.35 20
32 NYJ 5.12 28 5.40 31 4.52 30 5.25 31 4.94 29
x NFL 4.03 x 4.32 x 4.16 x 4.22 x 4.09 x

The third table lists how often each team runs in each direction. These runs are from the perspective of the OFFENSE, so a run listed as LEFT TACKLE is actually at the RIGHT defensive end. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to carries listed without direction.

Team RB Carries LEFT
END		 LEFT
TACKLE		 MID/
GUARD		 RIGHT
TACKLE		 RIGHT
END
1 PIT 320 4% 13% 63% 13% 8%
2 NE 324 13% 12% 57% 11% 7%
3 TEN 331 8% 11% 60% 12% 10%
4 WAS 332 20% 13% 43% 14% 11%
5 JAC 333 16% 7% 55% 7% 14%
6 MIN 334 16% 13% 47% 11% 13%
7 DAL 337 9% 17% 48% 19% 7%
8 NO 356 9% 16% 49% 13% 13%
9 NYG 358 13% 18% 44% 14% 11%
10 PHI 358 17% 14% 41% 14% 13%
11 ARI 359 10% 17% 52% 14% 6%
12 SEA 374 9% 19% 48% 17% 7%
13 HOU 376 11% 9% 59% 10% 11%
14 SD 386 10% 12% 50% 16% 12%
15 DET 388 21% 16% 30% 14% 19%
16 IND 397 12% 12% 53% 12% 12%
Team RB Carries LEFT
END		 LEFT
TACKLE		 MID/
GUARD		 RIGHT
TACKLE		 RIGHT
END
17 CIN 399 10% 15% 54% 13% 8%
18 GB 399 17% 17% 40% 15% 12%
19 STL 403 12% 16% 48% 16% 7%
20 BAL 405 7% 10% 66% 11% 5%
21 BUF 407 5% 13% 62% 14% 6%
22 CHI 412 12% 17% 40% 17% 13%
23 TB 412 7% 9% 57% 13% 14%
24 CAR 416 10% 19% 46% 14% 12%
25 CLE 418 7% 16% 52% 19% 6%
26 KC 424 18% 13% 40% 13% 15%
27 DEN 425 11% 24% 40% 15% 11%
28 OAK 428 14% 11% 53% 11% 11%
29 ATL 434 10% 13% 48% 16% 12%
30 SF 450 10% 18% 51% 13% 8%
31 NYJ 473 7% 21% 49% 14% 8%
32 MIA 480 7% 13% 51% 20% 9%
x NFL x 11% 15% 50% 14% 10%