Help with KUBIAK and Premium

KUBIAK UPDATE
7/22: Adds 2007 red zone target and carry data, solves error in IDP formula for top three linebackers
7/21: Changes DAL RB
Adjusts for Taylor and Shockey trades
7/19: JAC WR, CLE WR
Download here.

Get notified when new Outsider Ramblings are posted:


||

Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
  • You've never been closer to a poker game than today, however, deciding where to play became a problem. Look at all online poker sites, enjoy the best selection of online poker and get the best poker bonus.
Play texas holdem poker on Launchpoker.com


Baseball Prospectus Basketball Prospectus

DEFENSIVE LINES 2006

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 1/2/2007

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

  • Losses: 120% value
  • 0-4 Yards: 100% value
  • 5-10 Yards: 50% value
  • 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, and situation, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (in 2005, 4.08). Defensive line stats (more accurately, defensive front seven stats) represent the performance of offensive lines against each defense, adjusted for the quality of offensive opponents.  These stats are explained further here.

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

  • RB Yards: Yards per carry by running backs against this defense, according to standard NFL numbers.
  • 10+ Yards: Percentage of rushing yards against this team more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.  Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat. Teams are ranked from smallest number of 10+ Yards (#1) to largest number of 10+ Yards (#32).
  • Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.  This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks. Teams are ranked from lowest power success percentage allowed (#1) to highest power success percentage allowed (#32).
  • Stuffed: Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down.  Ranked from most stuffs (#1) to fewest stuffs (#32).

NFL averages for each stat given in red.

Why are these rankings different from the team defense DVOA ratings for rushing? Among other reasons, they don't include quarterbacks or fumbles, long runs are truncated, and a different set of adjustments is used, attempting to isolate line play rather than total team defense.

A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in 10+ Yards has a strong defensive line but its linebackers and secondary have difficulty in pursuit and tackling. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in 10+ Yards generally allows runners to get past the defensive line but the linebackers and secondary are good at pursuit and tackling. A low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards with a high ranking in 10+ Yards is often an indicator of a 3-4 defensive scheme, though there are exceptions.

Stats in blue represent pass rush.  Teams are ranked according to adjusted sack rate, which gives sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance.  Pass rush stats are explained further here. Our sack totals may differ slightly from official NFL totals depending on the league's retroactive statistical adjustments.

RUN BLOCKING PASS PROTECTION
TEAM Adj. Line
Yards 		 RB
Yards		 Power
Success		 Power
Rank		 10+
Yards		 10+
Rank		 Stuffed Stuffed
Rank		 TEAM Sack
Rank		 Sacks Adj.
Sack Rate
1 MIN 2.76 2.95 47% 1 23% 29 35% 1 BAL 1 60 8.4%
2 BAL 3.42 3.26 56% 7 14% 9 21% 24 SD 2 61 8.0%
3 JAC 3.65 3.52 69% 25 15% 12 26% 7 MIA 3 47 7.9%
4 CHI 3.85 4.21 63% 15 22% 28 30% 2 PHI 4 40 7.7%
5 NYG 3.86 3.75 70% 26 17% 19 26% 8 BUF 5 40 7.5%
6 MIA 3.87 3.55 66% 16 11% 2 23% 18 NO 6 38 7.5%
7 PIT 3.92 3.31 63% 13 10% 1 27% 5 CAR 7 41 7.4%
8 NE 3.99 3.91 68% 21 17% 20 23% 21 ATL 8 38 7.1%
9 CAR 4.03 3.97 48% 2 16% 17 29% 3 NE 9 44 7.1%
10 SEA 4.03 4.73 69% 23 29% 32 26% 6 GB 10 46 7.0%
11 OAK 4.11 4.06 61% 11 16% 16 24% 14 SEA 11 41 7.0%
12 ATL 4.14 3.84 57% 8 12% 4 23% 19 DAL 12 34 6.5%
13 SD 4.20 4.05 78% 31 15% 11 24% 16 OAK 13 34 6.4%
14 TB 4.21 3.92 74% 28 15% 14 24% 13 JAC 14 35 6.2%
15 KC 4.23 4.15 63% 14 17% 22 28% 4 PIT 15 39 6.2%
16 CIN 4.24 4.03 56% 6 16% 18 25% 12 NYG 16 32 5.9%
RUN BLOCKING PASS PROTECTION
TEAM Adj. Line
Yards 		 RB
Yards		 Power
Success		 Power
Rank		 10+
Yards		 10+
Rank		 Stuffed Stuffed
Rank		 TEAM Sack
Rank		 Sacks Adj.
Sack Rate
17 NO 4.25 4.59 48% 3 23% 31 26% 10 CIN 17 35 5.8%
18 ARI 4.31 4.23 66% 17 17% 21 26% 9 STL 18 34 5.7%
19 HOU 4.36 4.32 77% 30 15% 13 19% 32 ARI 19 38 5.6%
20 DAL 4.37 3.81 60% 10 11% 3 26% 11 DET 20 30 5.6%
21 PHI 4.41 4.28 53% 4 13% 6 23% 17 CHI 21 40 5.5%
22 DEN 4.42 4.18 76% 29 13% 5 24% 15 NYJ 22 35 5.4%
23 GB 4.49 4.16 54% 5 14% 7 21% 29 SF 23 34 5.4%
24 DET 4.50 4.23 71% 27 16% 15 21% 27 HOU 24 28 5.2%
25 TEN 4.57 4.47 69% 24 18% 25 21% 26 IND 25 25 5.2%
26 SF 4.65 4.33 67% 18 15% 10 21% 25 DEN 26 36 5.1%
27 CLE 4.71 4.73 58% 9 20% 26 23% 20 CLE 27 28 5.0%
28 STL 4.73 4.94 67% 19 21% 27 19% 31 KC 28 32 4.9%
29 BUF 4.76 4.83 69% 22 18% 24 19% 30 TEN 29 27 4.8%
30 WAS 4.77 4.71 62% 12 18% 23 21% 23 TB 30 25 4.7%
31 IND 4.80 5.37 81% 32 23% 30 22% 22 MIN 31 30 4.6%
32 NYJ 4.99 4.65 67% 20 14% 8 21% 28 WAS 32 20 4.3%
x NFL x 4.19 64% x 17% x 24% x NFL x 36 6.2%

This second table lists each team's Adjusted Line Yards in each direction listed in official NFL play-by-play, along with rank among the 32 teams. Only five directions are listed because research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard. It's early in the season, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. These runs are from the perspective of the OFFENSE, so a run listed as LEFT TACKLE is actually at the RIGHT defensive end.

    LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
  TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
1 MIN 2.08 3 2.56 1 2.95 1 2.84 3 3.09 7
2 BAL 3.10 4 3.04 3 3.78 2 3.50 7 1.99 1
3 JAC 3.12 5 3.11 4 3.99 6 2.90 4 4.14 18
4 CHI 4.09 16 3.53 7 3.99 5 4.18 17 3.08 6
5 NYG 3.56 10 3.00 2 4.25 16 2.82 1 4.84 27
6 MIA 3.68 12 4.46 16 4.03 9 3.24 5 3.07 5
7 PIT 1.99 2 4.77 21 3.94 4 4.11 15 4.68 25
8 NE 3.30 7 4.31 15 4.15 12 2.84 2 4.03 16
9 CAR 3.55 9 4.68 19 4.02 8 4.53 21 3.50 10
10 SEA 3.81 13 4.76 20 4.17 13 3.38 6 2.91 2
11 OAK 3.94 15 3.38 5 4.14 11 4.63 23 4.58 24
12 ATL 5.07 28 3.54 8 4.21 15 3.60 10 4.97 29
13 SD 4.51 20 4.16 11 4.30 17 4.32 18 3.05 4
14 TB 3.62 11 3.45 6 4.47 19 5.02 29 3.87 13
15 KC 4.43 19 4.17 12 3.92 3 4.77 27 5.01 30
16 CIN 3.41 8 4.54 17 4.68 27 3.57 9 3.45 9
    LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
  TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
17 NO 4.52 21 4.90 25 4.20 14 3.51 8 4.03 15
18 ARI 3.30 6 4.56 18 4.76 28 4.39 19 4.23 19
19 HOU 5.45 32 4.10 9 4.00 7 5.20 30 4.35 21
20 DAL 5.42 31 4.22 13 4.11 10 4.87 28 3.97 14
21 PHI 4.18 17 5.28 29 4.60 21 4.75 25 3.02 3
22 DEN 5.06 27 4.84 24 4.38 18 3.93 12 3.74 12
23 GB 4.56 22 4.83 23 4.68 26 3.70 11 4.26 20
24 DET 3.88 14 5.59 32 4.60 22 4.05 14 4.47 22
25 TEN 5.01 26 4.22 14 4.51 20 4.05 13 5.19 31
26 SF 4.23 18 4.13 10 4.80 29 4.73 24 4.93 28
27 CLE 5.00 25 4.95 27 4.62 25 4.54 22 5.49 32
28 STL 4.97 24 4.78 22 4.89 31 4.48 20 3.60 11
29 BUF 5.28 30 5.11 28 4.83 30 4.15 16 4.13 17
30 WAS 4.57 23 5.42 31 4.61 24 4.76 26 4.70 26
31 IND 1.86 1 4.94 26 4.99 32 5.71 32 3.24 8
32 NYJ 5.12 29 5.30 30 4.61 23 5.67 31 4.54 23
x NFL 4.16 x 4.40 x 4.34 x 4.21 x 4.04 x

The third table lists how often each team runs in each direction. These runs are from the perspective of the OFFENSE, so a run listed as LEFT TACKLE is actually at the RIGHT defensive end. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to carries listed without direction.

Team RB Carries LEFT
END		 LEFT
TACKLE		 MID/
GUARD		 RIGHT
TACKLE		 RIGHT
END
1 MIN 305 15% 10% 51% 12% 10%
2 BAL 318 7% 13% 54% 17% 7%
3 SD 342 12% 19% 50% 12% 8%
4 NE 354 7% 10% 68% 8% 6%
5 NO 354 13% 17% 46% 14% 10%
6 JAC 357 14% 10% 52% 13% 11%
7 PIT 357 7% 15% 55% 15% 6%
8 CHI 365 9% 21% 42% 18% 10%
9 DAL 367 9% 14% 38% 20% 19%
10 GB 384 20% 17% 39% 15% 9%
11 CIN 386 10% 15% 50% 15% 10%
12 CAR 387 15% 13% 48% 12% 12%
13 HOU 391 16% 8% 56% 10% 9%
14 NYG 395 12% 14% 51% 13% 10%
15 SEA 396 8% 18% 50% 14% 9%
16 ARI 403 16% 18% 36% 15% 13%
Team RB Carries LEFT
END		 LEFT
TACKLE		 MID/
GUARD		 RIGHT
TACKLE		 RIGHT
END
17 KC 403 15% 8% 53% 12% 10%
18 ATL 404 13% 19% 40% 17% 10%
19 DEN 408 14% 10% 56% 14% 6%
20 BUF 410 7% 16% 58% 11% 8%
21 MIA 413 12% 14% 57% 7% 10%
22 NYJ 416 11% 19% 46% 19% 6%
23 DET 424 16% 15% 33% 18% 18%
24 SF 429 12% 15% 51% 11% 10%
25 TB 429 10% 17% 54% 11% 8%
26 PHI 430 17% 12% 44% 12% 13%
27 WAS 434 12% 15% 43% 14% 14%
28 STL 438 13% 24% 42% 14% 7%
29 TEN 444 14% 8% 47% 18% 13%
30 CLE 451 8% 17% 55% 17% 4%
31 IND 463 4% 14% 61% 12% 9%
32 OAK 477 11% 13% 55% 15% 5%
x NFL x 12% 15% 49% 14% 10%