Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

FEI COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS 2014

Preseason Projections

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Nearly 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Game efficiency is a function of the starting field position and outcome of non-garbage possessions. Opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose.

Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an "elite team" (two standard deviations above average) would win every game on the given team's schedule. SOS listed here includes all regular season games scheduled.

Mean Wins (FBS MW) represent the average total games a team with the given FEI rating should expect to win against its complete schedule of FBS opponents.

Preseason projections are a function of Program FEI ratings, previous-year FEI and garbage time data, previous-year turnover-neutral, special teams-neutral, and field position-neutral FEI, returning starters, recruiting success, and quarterback reliance. As the season progresses and actual 2014 data is collected, the weight given to projected data will be reduced each week until Week 7, at which point it will be eliminated from the rankings entirely. Offensive and defensive FEI ratings will also debut in Week 7.

Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
1 Alabama 0-0 .279 .229 46 9.6
2 Oregon 0-0 .279 .166 30 9.3
3 Florida State 0-0 .271 .317 61 9.8
4 Stanford 0-0 .253 .074 6 8.4
5 Oklahoma 0-0 .238 .299 55 10.3
6 South Carolina 0-0 .217 .198 33 8.7
7 LSU 0-0 .212 .135 21 8.2
8 Auburn 0-0 .198 .063 2 7.2
9 Michigan State 0-0 .189 .220 40 8.6
10 UCLA 0-0 .185 .114 13 8.3
11 USC 0-0 .176 .130 19 8.4
12 Georgia 0-0 .174 .218 37 8.0
13 Ohio State 0-0 .171 .359 66 9.5
14 Oklahoma State 0-0 .169 .106 12 7.3
15 Arizona State 0-0 .164 .137 23 7.1
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
16 Missouri 0-0 .158 .213 35 7.6
17 Kansas State 0-0 .154 .157 27 7.1
18 Texas A&M 0-0 .152 .073 4 6.6
19 Baylor 0-0 .151 .218 38 7.6
20 Notre Dame 0-0 .143 .096 10 7.4
21 Wisconsin 0-0 .142 .369 72 8.3
22 Washington 0-0 .136 .127 17 7.8
23 Clemson 0-0 .133 .161 28 7.1
24 Central Florida 0-0 .131 .403 74 8.1
25 Iowa 0-0 .128 .560 98 8.3
26 Oregon State 0-0 .124 .117 15 6.6
27 Louisville 0-0 .123 .282 52 7.6
28 Boise State 0-0 .123 .624 105 9.8
29 Michigan 0-0 .122 .224 44 8.1
30 Mississippi 0-0 .122 .137 24 6.4
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
31 BYU 0-0 .120 .367 70 7.8
32 Houston 0-0 .115 .546 96 8.5
33 Texas 0-0 .115 .146 26 6.8
34 Florida 0-0 .111 .068 3 5.9
35 Virginia Tech 0-0 .110 .368 71 7.7
36 Mississippi State 0-0 .108 .127 18 6.6
37 Arizona 0-0 .101 .126 16 7.1
38 North Carolina 0-0 .091 .315 59 6.5
39 TCU 0-0 .085 .233 47 5.9
40 Nebraska 0-0 .085 .269 51 6.9
41 Utah 0-0 .081 .062 1 4.5
42 Texas Tech 0-0 .078 .190 32 5.8
43 Georgia Tech 0-0 .066 .299 54 6.0
44 Miami 0-0 .066 .226 45 5.4
45 Northwestern 0-0 .063 .328 62 6.0
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
46 Duke 0-0 .059 .496 90 7.1
47 Pittsburgh 0-0 .053 .480 87 6.3
48 Penn State 0-0 .046 .329 63 6.7
49 Cincinnati 0-0 .044 .449 83 7.5
50 Northern Illinois 0-0 .044 .725 119 8.4
51 West Virginia 0-0 .041 .103 11 3.9
52 Washington State 0-0 .034 .090 9 3.9
53 Navy 0-0 .031 .532 95 7.4
54 Maryland 0-0 .028 .248 48 4.3
55 Indiana 0-0 .024 .187 31 4.6
56 Vanderbilt 0-0 .016 .220 39 5.3
57 Toledo 0-0 .010 .582 100 6.8
58 Bowling Green 0-0 .007 .597 103 7.5
59 Marshall 0-0 .004 .847 128 8.9
60 Syracuse 0-0 -.001 .291 53 4.4
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
61 Rutgers 0-0 -.002 .206 34 3.6
62 Utah State 0-0 -.004 .515 92 7.7
63 Iowa State 0-0 -.006 .163 29 3.2
64 East Carolina 0-0 -.010 .317 60 4.8
65 Minnesota 0-0 -.012 .267 50 4.5
66 Arkansas 0-0 -.012 .080 7 2.6
67 Fresno State 0-0 -.013 .363 67 5.9
68 Virginia 0-0 -.015 .136 22 3.1
69 Nevada 0-0 -.016 .496 91 5.7
70 Connecticut 0-0 -.022 .607 104 5.2
71 Temple 0-0 -.024 .425 78 4.5
72 Louisiana Lafayette 0-0 -.027 .522 94 7.5
73 North Carolina State 0-0 -.030 .257 49 4.8
74 Boston College 0-0 -.034 .216 36 4.2
75 Tennessee 0-0 -.040 .073 5 2.7
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
76 Tulsa 0-0 -.043 .367 69 5.5
77 South Florida 0-0 -.051 .471 86 3.9
78 UTSA 0-0 -.052 .436 81 6.5
79 Kentucky 0-0 -.056 .141 25 3.0
80 San Diego State 0-0 -.060 .415 77 5.4
81 California 0-0 -.061 .089 8 1.8
82 Memphis 0-0 -.062 .365 68 4.0
83 Ball State 0-0 -.066 .593 102 5.2
84 Colorado State 0-0 -.074 .642 109 5.5
85 SMU 0-0 -.074 .337 64 3.3
86 Illinois 0-0 -.075 .223 43 3.4
87 South Alabama 0-0 -.078 .460 85 6.5
88 North Texas 0-0 -.080 .632 107 5.7
89 Western Kentucky 0-0 -.082 .736 122 6.2
90 Central Michigan 0-0 -.085 .729 120 5.9
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
91 Rice 0-0 -.089 .434 79 5.7
92 Tulane 0-0 -.090 .410 76 2.8
93 San Jose State 0-0 -.091 .458 84 4.0
94 Arkansas State 0-0 -.093 .730 121 6.0
95 Kent State 0-0 -.096 .486 89 5.6
96 Army 0-0 -.102 .435 80 4.0
97 Middle Tennessee 0-0 -.102 .720 118 5.2
98 Wake Forest 0-0 -.104 .222 41 2.7
99 Florida Atlantic 0-0 -.105 .304 57 5.0
100 Kansas 0-0 -.106 .132 20 1.6
101 Buffalo 0-0 -.106 .715 117 5.3
102 Colorado 0-0 -.110 .116 14 2.6
103 Louisiana Tech 0-0 -.112 .302 56 4.4
104 Purdue 0-0 -.115 .343 65 2.3
105 Hawaii 0-0 -.121 .659 110 3.9
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
106 Western Michigan 0-0 -.142 .639 108 4.0
107 UNLV 0-0 -.142 .409 75 3.1
108 Wyoming 0-0 -.142 .223 42 3.2
109 Louisiana Monroe 0-0 -.143 .374 73 5.3
110 Air Force 0-0 -.146 .737 123 3.7
111 Southern Mississippi 0-0 -.148 .307 58 3.8
112 Florida International 0-0 -.149 .766 124 3.3
113 Akron 0-0 -.158 .685 116 4.1
114 Ohio 0-0 -.161 .794 126 3.7
115 UTEP 0-0 -.168 .583 101 4.3
116 Troy 0-0 -.175 .567 99 4.5
117 UAB 0-0 -.179 .666 112 3.1
118 Texas State 0-0 -.180 .837 127 4.0
119 Idaho 0-0 -.182 .673 114 4.8
120 New Mexico 0-0 -.186 .625 106 3.2
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
121 Old Dominion 0-0 -.193 .787 125 3.2
122 Georgia State 0-0 -.202 .486 88 3.7
123 Appalachian State 0-0 -.212 .665 111 3.0
124 Georgia Southern 0-0 -.219 .681 115 3.4
125 Miami (OH) 0-0 -.230 .548 97 2.4
126 Eastern Michigan 0-0 -.245 .442 82 1.9
127 Massachusetts 0-0 -.250 .672 113 2.2
128 New Mexico State 0-0 -.291 .520 93 2.2