Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2009 FEI College Football Projections

Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 offers projections for the six BCS conferences and a handful of independents and other FBS (Division I-A) teams. For those who want more projections, the table below gives the FEI projections for all 120 FBS teams in 2009, together rather than separated by conference.


FEI 2009 Projections
Rank Team FEI SOS SOS
Rank
Off FEI Off FEI
Rank
Def FEI Def FEI
Rank
Mean Wins Mean
Conf Wins
1 Florida .340 .196 23 .674 4 -.868 1 11.1 7.3
2 USC .250 .257 40 .716 2 -.420 16 10.3 7.9
3 Texas .245 .349 59 .774 1 -.513 8 10.6 6.8
4 Virginia Tech .226 .210 27 .161 31 -.427 13 9.7 6.3
5 Oklahoma .219 .251 39 .545 6 -.450 10 9.9 6.5
6 Georgia .211 .061 1 .676 3 -.247 33 8.4 5.2
7 LSU .208 .089 9 .380 13 -.335 20 9.0 5.1
8 Ohio State .195 .236 35 .185 25 -.526 7 9.5 6.3
9 Georgia Tech .182 .133 11 .409 11 -.251 31 8.4 5.3
10 Clemson .178 .201 25 .070 47 -.643 2 8.7 5.2
11 Auburn .176 .164 16 -.001 62 -.572 5 8.7 5.2
12 West Virginia .172 .400 72 .148 35 -.425 15 9.6 5.6
13 Alabama .167 .183 18 .109 40 -.470 9 8.7 5.4
14 Boston College .166 .192 20 .076 44 -.594 3 8.5 5.1
15 California .154 .293 49 .059 51 -.553 6 9.0 6.5
16 Florida State .148 .068 3 .313 16 -.179 36 7.1 4.6
17 Notre Dame .139 .219 32 .270 21 -.310 24 8.3 n/a
18 Miami .138 .122 10 .179 27 -.087 51 7.3 4.5
19 Penn State .136 .361 62 .445 9 -.106 48 9.1 5.3
20 Michigan .121 .282 48 .302 18 -.294 26 8.3 5.0
Rank Team FEI SOS SOS
Rank
Off FEI Off FEI
Rank
Def FEI Def FEI
Rank
Mean Wins Mean
Conf Wins
21 Arkansas .116 .074 5 .420 10 -.316 23 7.1 3.5
22 Iowa .116 .295 50 -.028 65 -.447 11 8.1 4.7
23 Tennessee .113 .088 8 .002 61 -.572 4 7.1 3.7
24 Oklahoma State .100 .185 19 .634 5 .194 83 7.6 4.7
25 Texas Tech .098 .261 41 .470 7 -.341 19 8.1 4.5
26 Wake Forest .096 .196 24 -.064 72 -.270 28 7.0 3.8
27 Oregon .095 .236 34 .285 20 -.164 37 7.1 5.3
28 Vanderbilt .090 .082 6 -.037 67 -.370 17 6.8 3.7
29 Rutgers .087 .472 78 .183 26 -.025 57 8.8 4.3
30 Pittsburgh .087 .360 60 .063 49 -.143 40 7.8 4.3
31 Michigan State .085 .332 56 .016 57 -.183 35 7.5 4.4
32 Utah .083 .599 94 -.102 78 -.288 27 9.4 6.4
33 Wisconsin .079 .341 58 -.293 106 -.029 54 7.6 4.2
34 South Carolina .069 .072 4 -.156 83 -.443 12 5.7 3.0
35 North Carolina .068 .167 17 -.181 90 -.214 34 6.4 3.2
36 BYU .066 .381 66 .230 22 -.021 58 8.5 6.2
37 Southern Mississippi .065 .599 93 .161 30 .050 64 8.4 5.8
38 Kansas .065 .246 38 .395 12 -.014 59 7.2 4.1
39 Boise State .065 .680 111 -.075 73 -.257 29 10.7 7.1
40 Missouri .063 .392 69 .315 15 .043 63 8.0 4.6
Rank Team FEI SOS SOS
Rank
Off FEI Off FEI
Rank
Def FEI Def FEI
Rank
Mean Wins Mean
Conf Wins
41 UCLA .063 .238 36 -.010 64 -.427 14 6.6 4.6
42 Minnesota .059 .265 43 .088 42 -.113 44 6.6 3.8
43 Arizona .057 .241 37 .150 34 -.133 41 6.6 4.5
44 North Carolina State .055 .163 15 .164 29 .056 65 6.0 3.1
45 Arizona State .054 .194 21 -.038 68 -.304 25 6.5 4.5
46 Mississippi .052 .210 28 .045 53 -.253 30 6.4 2.9
47 South Florida .051 .315 53 -.064 71 -.108 46 7.1 3.6
48 TCU .051 .500 81 -.076 74 -.335 21 8.5 5.9
49 Louisville .043 .376 64 .059 50 -.154 39 6.8 3.5
50 Oregon State .043 .273 45 .157 32 .101 73 6.7 4.2
51 Virginia .041 .145 13 -.048 69 -.118 43 5.4 2.8
52 Tulsa .038 .452 76 .291 19 .138 78 8.0 5.6
53 East Carolina .036 .330 55 -.203 92 -.249 32 7.0 5.3
54 Maryland .024 .140 12 .045 54 .022 62 4.9 2.7
55 Connecticut .023 .340 57 -.221 97 -.334 22 6.2 3.1
56 Navy .015 .392 68 .121 39 .259 90 8.4 n/a
57 Fresno State .012 .689 112 .138 36 .128 76 9.0 6.4
58 Purdue .009 .274 46 -.229 100 -.363 18 5.1 3.2
59 Stanford .008 .195 22 .192 24 .084 68 4.8 3.5
60 Northwestern .001 .440 75 .017 56 -.111 45 6.5 3.2
Rank Team FEI SOS SOS
Rank
Off FEI Off FEI
Rank
Def FEI Def FEI
Rank
Mean Wins Mean
Conf Wins
61 Texas A&M -.004 .217 31 .456 8 .263 91 5.4 3.0
62 Nebraska -.006 .266 44 .225 23 .084 69 5.9 3.3
63 Cincinnati -.007 .403 73 -.125 82 .143 80 5.8 2.6
64 Kentucky -.013 .085 7 -.186 91 -.026 56 4.7 1.8
65 Kansas State -.015 .379 65 .153 33 .090 70 6.1 3.1
66 UAB -.021 .648 105 .177 28 .375 104 6.6 4.4
67 Central Florida -.023 .362 63 -.489 114 -.163 38 6.4 4.4
68 Colorado -.024 .274 47 .024 55 -.128 42 5.0 2.8
69 Washington -.033 .150 14 .101 41 -.041 53 3.9 2.7
70 Houston -.033 .563 87 .308 17 .464 112 6.5 4.4
71 Marshall -.033 .361 61 -.210 94 -.074 52 6.0 4.2
72 Central Michigan -.038 .519 83 .075 45 .364 101 6.9 5.3
73 Baylor -.040 .203 26 .318 14 .270 92 4.4 2.1
74 Air Force -.041 .592 92 -.208 93 -.026 55 6.7 4.4
75 UTEP -.046 .431 74 .125 38 .669 119 6.3 4.4
76 Illinois -.046 .298 51 .055 52 .109 74 4.1 2.1
77 Indiana -.061 .299 52 .063 48 .121 75 4.3 1.8
78 Mississippi State -.063 .067 2 -.117 80 -.092 50 3.2 1.2
79 Iowa State -.065 .504 82 .131 37 .345 98 5.0 2.5
80 Toledo -.071 .572 90 -.052 70 .204 85 6.1 4.6
Rank Team FEI SOS SOS
Rank
Off FEI Off FEI
Rank
Def FEI Def FEI
Rank
Mean Wins Mean
Conf Wins
81 Middle Tennessee -.073 .603 95 -.083 76 .340 97 7.0 5.6
82 Troy -.077 .262 42 -.170 86 .338 96 6.5 5.5
83 Bowling Green -.081 .696 114 -.169 85 .378 105 5.6 4.4
84 Northern Illinois -.082 .736 117 -.255 101 .193 82 6.7 4.3
85 Ball State -.085 .635 100 -.262 103 .130 77 6.8 4.3
86 Nevada -.091 .568 89 .071 46 .406 109 6.4 4.8
87 Duke -.098 .222 33 -.531 116 .022 61 3.8 1.0
88 Akron -.098 .693 113 .006 60 .559 117 6.2 4.2
89 New Mexico -.099 .528 84 -.435 111 -.108 47 4.7 3.3
90 Memphis -.100 .538 86 -.117 81 .251 89 4.0 2.2
91 Wyoming -.100 .395 70 -.475 113 .099 72 5.3 3.3
92 Ohio -.110 .703 115 -.500 115 .070 66 6.0 4.0
93 Syracuse -.111 .326 54 -.219 96 .184 81 3.0 1.1
94 Rice -.112 .483 80 .006 59 .443 111 3.3 2.7
95 SMU -.112 .662 108 -.160 84 .287 93 4.7 2.8
96 Kent State -.114 .614 97 -.003 63 .403 108 5.9 4.2
97 Miami (OH) -.121 .719 116 -.267 104 .418 110 4.7 2.8
98 Washington State -.123 .214 29 -.096 77 .081 67 2.3 1.2
99 Louisiana Lafayette -.125 .566 88 .009 58 .540 116 6.1 4.5
100 Eastern Michigan -.130 .587 91 -.080 75 .232 87 4.2 3.3
Rank Team FEI SOS SOS
Rank
Off FEI Off FEI
Rank
Def FEI Def FEI
Rank
Mean Wins Mean
Conf Wins
101 Western Michigan -.140 .639 101 -.177 87 .094 71 4.7 3.2
102 Louisiana Monroe -.141 .474 79 -.257 102 .370 102 5.6 4.2
103 Temple -.142 .675 110 -.564 118 .197 84 5.1 3.4
104 Colorado State -.143 .646 102 -.035 66 .371 103 4.9 2.5
105 Louisiana Tech -.143 .385 67 -.360 107 .323 94 5.1 3.9
106 Hawaii -.145 .653 106 -.180 89 .359 100 6.1 3.9
107 Army -.149 .648 104 -.551 117 -.003 60 4.7 n/a
108 Buffalo -.157 .738 119 -.363 108 .468 113 4.5 3.0
109 Arkansas State -.158 .673 109 -.567 119 .142 79 5.2 3.8
110 UNLV -.165 .618 99 .086 43 .564 118 4.0 2.1
111 Tulane -.170 .455 77 -.229 99 .386 106 3.3 1.7
112 San Jose State -.172 .398 71 -.688 120 -.106 49 4.6 3.4
113 Florida International -.175 .215 30 -.391 109 .403 107 3.8 3.5
114 San Diego State -.177 .606 96 -.180 88 .477 114 4.5 1.9
115 Utah State -.184 .615 98 -.212 95 .335 95 4.4 3.2
116 Florida Atlantic -.199 .739 120 -.423 110 .349 99 3.6 3.0
117 Western Kentucky -.202 .662 107 -.106 79 .229 86 3.1 2.9
118 North Texas -.205 .647 103 -.224 98 .525 115 3.8 2.9
119 New Mexico State -.259 .534 85 -.456 112 .243 88 3.5 1.9
120 Idaho -.289 .737 118 -.271 105 .700 120 2.1 1.5