RSS Feed
PDF NOW HALF PRICE
JUST $6.00!
PDF version now over 50% off at $6.00.
Printed version now on sale for $22.95.
ALSO AVAILABLE
Click here to buy PDF version
.Click here to buy print version.
2009 FEI College Football Projections
Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 offers projections for the six BCS conferences and a handful of independents and other FBS (Division I-A) teams. For those who want more projections, the table below gives the FEI projections for all 120 FBS teams in 2009, together rather than separated by conference.
| FEI 2009 Projections | ||||||||||
| Rank | Team | FEI | SOS | SOS Rank |
Off FEI | Off FEI Rank |
Def FEI | Def FEI Rank |
Mean Wins | Mean Conf Wins |
| 1 | Florida | .340 | .196 | 23 | .674 | 4 | -.868 | 1 | 11.1 | 7.3 |
| 2 | USC | .250 | .257 | 40 | .716 | 2 | -.420 | 16 | 10.3 | 7.9 |
| 3 | Texas | .245 | .349 | 59 | .774 | 1 | -.513 | 8 | 10.6 | 6.8 |
| 4 | Virginia Tech | .226 | .210 | 27 | .161 | 31 | -.427 | 13 | 9.7 | 6.3 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | .219 | .251 | 39 | .545 | 6 | -.450 | 10 | 9.9 | 6.5 |
| 6 | Georgia | .211 | .061 | 1 | .676 | 3 | -.247 | 33 | 8.4 | 5.2 |
| 7 | LSU | .208 | .089 | 9 | .380 | 13 | -.335 | 20 | 9.0 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Ohio State | .195 | .236 | 35 | .185 | 25 | -.526 | 7 | 9.5 | 6.3 |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | .182 | .133 | 11 | .409 | 11 | -.251 | 31 | 8.4 | 5.3 |
| 10 | Clemson | .178 | .201 | 25 | .070 | 47 | -.643 | 2 | 8.7 | 5.2 |
| 11 | Auburn | .176 | .164 | 16 | -.001 | 62 | -.572 | 5 | 8.7 | 5.2 |
| 12 | West Virginia | .172 | .400 | 72 | .148 | 35 | -.425 | 15 | 9.6 | 5.6 |
| 13 | Alabama | .167 | .183 | 18 | .109 | 40 | -.470 | 9 | 8.7 | 5.4 |
| 14 | Boston College | .166 | .192 | 20 | .076 | 44 | -.594 | 3 | 8.5 | 5.1 |
| 15 | California | .154 | .293 | 49 | .059 | 51 | -.553 | 6 | 9.0 | 6.5 |
| 16 | Florida State | .148 | .068 | 3 | .313 | 16 | -.179 | 36 | 7.1 | 4.6 |
| 17 | Notre Dame | .139 | .219 | 32 | .270 | 21 | -.310 | 24 | 8.3 | n/a |
| 18 | Miami | .138 | .122 | 10 | .179 | 27 | -.087 | 51 | 7.3 | 4.5 |
| 19 | Penn State | .136 | .361 | 62 | .445 | 9 | -.106 | 48 | 9.1 | 5.3 |
| 20 | Michigan | .121 | .282 | 48 | .302 | 18 | -.294 | 26 | 8.3 | 5.0 |
| Rank | Team | FEI | SOS | SOS Rank |
Off FEI | Off FEI Rank |
Def FEI | Def FEI Rank |
Mean Wins | Mean Conf Wins |
| 21 | Arkansas | .116 | .074 | 5 | .420 | 10 | -.316 | 23 | 7.1 | 3.5 |
| 22 | Iowa | .116 | .295 | 50 | -.028 | 65 | -.447 | 11 | 8.1 | 4.7 |
| 23 | Tennessee | .113 | .088 | 8 | .002 | 61 | -.572 | 4 | 7.1 | 3.7 |
| 24 | Oklahoma State | .100 | .185 | 19 | .634 | 5 | .194 | 83 | 7.6 | 4.7 |
| 25 | Texas Tech | .098 | .261 | 41 | .470 | 7 | -.341 | 19 | 8.1 | 4.5 |
| 26 | Wake Forest | .096 | .196 | 24 | -.064 | 72 | -.270 | 28 | 7.0 | 3.8 |
| 27 | Oregon | .095 | .236 | 34 | .285 | 20 | -.164 | 37 | 7.1 | 5.3 |
| 28 | Vanderbilt | .090 | .082 | 6 | -.037 | 67 | -.370 | 17 | 6.8 | 3.7 |
| 29 | Rutgers | .087 | .472 | 78 | .183 | 26 | -.025 | 57 | 8.8 | 4.3 |
| 30 | Pittsburgh | .087 | .360 | 60 | .063 | 49 | -.143 | 40 | 7.8 | 4.3 |
| 31 | Michigan State | .085 | .332 | 56 | .016 | 57 | -.183 | 35 | 7.5 | 4.4 |
| 32 | Utah | .083 | .599 | 94 | -.102 | 78 | -.288 | 27 | 9.4 | 6.4 |
| 33 | Wisconsin | .079 | .341 | 58 | -.293 | 106 | -.029 | 54 | 7.6 | 4.2 |
| 34 | South Carolina | .069 | .072 | 4 | -.156 | 83 | -.443 | 12 | 5.7 | 3.0 |
| 35 | North Carolina | .068 | .167 | 17 | -.181 | 90 | -.214 | 34 | 6.4 | 3.2 |
| 36 | BYU | .066 | .381 | 66 | .230 | 22 | -.021 | 58 | 8.5 | 6.2 |
| 37 | Southern Mississippi | .065 | .599 | 93 | .161 | 30 | .050 | 64 | 8.4 | 5.8 |
| 38 | Kansas | .065 | .246 | 38 | .395 | 12 | -.014 | 59 | 7.2 | 4.1 |
| 39 | Boise State | .065 | .680 | 111 | -.075 | 73 | -.257 | 29 | 10.7 | 7.1 |
| 40 | Missouri | .063 | .392 | 69 | .315 | 15 | .043 | 63 | 8.0 | 4.6 |
| Rank | Team | FEI | SOS | SOS Rank |
Off FEI | Off FEI Rank |
Def FEI | Def FEI Rank |
Mean Wins | Mean Conf Wins |
| 41 | UCLA | .063 | .238 | 36 | -.010 | 64 | -.427 | 14 | 6.6 | 4.6 |
| 42 | Minnesota | .059 | .265 | 43 | .088 | 42 | -.113 | 44 | 6.6 | 3.8 |
| 43 | Arizona | .057 | .241 | 37 | .150 | 34 | -.133 | 41 | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| 44 | North Carolina State | .055 | .163 | 15 | .164 | 29 | .056 | 65 | 6.0 | 3.1 |
| 45 | Arizona State | .054 | .194 | 21 | -.038 | 68 | -.304 | 25 | 6.5 | 4.5 |
| 46 | Mississippi | .052 | .210 | 28 | .045 | 53 | -.253 | 30 | 6.4 | 2.9 |
| 47 | South Florida | .051 | .315 | 53 | -.064 | 71 | -.108 | 46 | 7.1 | 3.6 |
| 48 | TCU | .051 | .500 | 81 | -.076 | 74 | -.335 | 21 | 8.5 | 5.9 |
| 49 | Louisville | .043 | .376 | 64 | .059 | 50 | -.154 | 39 | 6.8 | 3.5 |
| 50 | Oregon State | .043 | .273 | 45 | .157 | 32 | .101 | 73 | 6.7 | 4.2 |
| 51 | Virginia | .041 | .145 | 13 | -.048 | 69 | -.118 | 43 | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| 52 | Tulsa | .038 | .452 | 76 | .291 | 19 | .138 | 78 | 8.0 | 5.6 |
| 53 | East Carolina | .036 | .330 | 55 | -.203 | 92 | -.249 | 32 | 7.0 | 5.3 |
| 54 | Maryland | .024 | .140 | 12 | .045 | 54 | .022 | 62 | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| 55 | Connecticut | .023 | .340 | 57 | -.221 | 97 | -.334 | 22 | 6.2 | 3.1 |
| 56 | Navy | .015 | .392 | 68 | .121 | 39 | .259 | 90 | 8.4 | n/a |
| 57 | Fresno State | .012 | .689 | 112 | .138 | 36 | .128 | 76 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| 58 | Purdue | .009 | .274 | 46 | -.229 | 100 | -.363 | 18 | 5.1 | 3.2 |
| 59 | Stanford | .008 | .195 | 22 | .192 | 24 | .084 | 68 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| 60 | Northwestern | .001 | .440 | 75 | .017 | 56 | -.111 | 45 | 6.5 | 3.2 |
| Rank | Team | FEI | SOS | SOS Rank |
Off FEI | Off FEI Rank |
Def FEI | Def FEI Rank |
Mean Wins | Mean Conf Wins |
| 61 | Texas A&M | -.004 | .217 | 31 | .456 | 8 | .263 | 91 | 5.4 | 3.0 |
| 62 | Nebraska | -.006 | .266 | 44 | .225 | 23 | .084 | 69 | 5.9 | 3.3 |
| 63 | Cincinnati | -.007 | .403 | 73 | -.125 | 82 | .143 | 80 | 5.8 | 2.6 |
| 64 | Kentucky | -.013 | .085 | 7 | -.186 | 91 | -.026 | 56 | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 65 | Kansas State | -.015 | .379 | 65 | .153 | 33 | .090 | 70 | 6.1 | 3.1 |
| 66 | UAB | -.021 | .648 | 105 | .177 | 28 | .375 | 104 | 6.6 | 4.4 |
| 67 | Central Florida | -.023 | .362 | 63 | -.489 | 114 | -.163 | 38 | 6.4 | 4.4 |
| 68 | Colorado | -.024 | .274 | 47 | .024 | 55 | -.128 | 42 | 5.0 | 2.8 |
| 69 | Washington | -.033 | .150 | 14 | .101 | 41 | -.041 | 53 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| 70 | Houston | -.033 | .563 | 87 | .308 | 17 | .464 | 112 | 6.5 | 4.4 |
| 71 | Marshall | -.033 | .361 | 61 | -.210 | 94 | -.074 | 52 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
| 72 | Central Michigan | -.038 | .519 | 83 | .075 | 45 | .364 | 101 | 6.9 | 5.3 |
| 73 | Baylor | -.040 | .203 | 26 | .318 | 14 | .270 | 92 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 74 | Air Force | -.041 | .592 | 92 | -.208 | 93 | -.026 | 55 | 6.7 | 4.4 |
| 75 | UTEP | -.046 | .431 | 74 | .125 | 38 | .669 | 119 | 6.3 | 4.4 |
| 76 | Illinois | -.046 | .298 | 51 | .055 | 52 | .109 | 74 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 77 | Indiana | -.061 | .299 | 52 | .063 | 48 | .121 | 75 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 78 | Mississippi State | -.063 | .067 | 2 | -.117 | 80 | -.092 | 50 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 79 | Iowa State | -.065 | .504 | 82 | .131 | 37 | .345 | 98 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 80 | Toledo | -.071 | .572 | 90 | -.052 | 70 | .204 | 85 | 6.1 | 4.6 |
| Rank | Team | FEI | SOS | SOS Rank |
Off FEI | Off FEI Rank |
Def FEI | Def FEI Rank |
Mean Wins | Mean Conf Wins |
| 81 | Middle Tennessee | -.073 | .603 | 95 | -.083 | 76 | .340 | 97 | 7.0 | 5.6 |
| 82 | Troy | -.077 | .262 | 42 | -.170 | 86 | .338 | 96 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| 83 | Bowling Green | -.081 | .696 | 114 | -.169 | 85 | .378 | 105 | 5.6 | 4.4 |
| 84 | Northern Illinois | -.082 | .736 | 117 | -.255 | 101 | .193 | 82 | 6.7 | 4.3 |
| 85 | Ball State | -.085 | .635 | 100 | -.262 | 103 | .130 | 77 | 6.8 | 4.3 |
| 86 | Nevada | -.091 | .568 | 89 | .071 | 46 | .406 | 109 | 6.4 | 4.8 |
| 87 | Duke | -.098 | .222 | 33 | -.531 | 116 | .022 | 61 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| 88 | Akron | -.098 | .693 | 113 | .006 | 60 | .559 | 117 | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| 89 | New Mexico | -.099 | .528 | 84 | -.435 | 111 | -.108 | 47 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| 90 | Memphis | -.100 | .538 | 86 | -.117 | 81 | .251 | 89 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| 91 | Wyoming | -.100 | .395 | 70 | -.475 | 113 | .099 | 72 | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| 92 | Ohio | -.110 | .703 | 115 | -.500 | 115 | .070 | 66 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| 93 | Syracuse | -.111 | .326 | 54 | -.219 | 96 | .184 | 81 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 94 | Rice | -.112 | .483 | 80 | .006 | 59 | .443 | 111 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| 95 | SMU | -.112 | .662 | 108 | -.160 | 84 | .287 | 93 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| 96 | Kent State | -.114 | .614 | 97 | -.003 | 63 | .403 | 108 | 5.9 | 4.2 |
| 97 | Miami (OH) | -.121 | .719 | 116 | -.267 | 104 | .418 | 110 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| 98 | Washington State | -.123 | .214 | 29 | -.096 | 77 | .081 | 67 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 99 | Louisiana Lafayette | -.125 | .566 | 88 | .009 | 58 | .540 | 116 | 6.1 | 4.5 |
| 100 | Eastern Michigan | -.130 | .587 | 91 | -.080 | 75 | .232 | 87 | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| Rank | Team | FEI | SOS | SOS Rank |
Off FEI | Off FEI Rank |
Def FEI | Def FEI Rank |
Mean Wins | Mean Conf Wins |
| 101 | Western Michigan | -.140 | .639 | 101 | -.177 | 87 | .094 | 71 | 4.7 | 3.2 |
| 102 | Louisiana Monroe | -.141 | .474 | 79 | -.257 | 102 | .370 | 102 | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| 103 | Temple | -.142 | .675 | 110 | -.564 | 118 | .197 | 84 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| 104 | Colorado State | -.143 | .646 | 102 | -.035 | 66 | .371 | 103 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 105 | Louisiana Tech | -.143 | .385 | 67 | -.360 | 107 | .323 | 94 | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| 106 | Hawaii | -.145 | .653 | 106 | -.180 | 89 | .359 | 100 | 6.1 | 3.9 |
| 107 | Army | -.149 | .648 | 104 | -.551 | 117 | -.003 | 60 | 4.7 | n/a |
| 108 | Buffalo | -.157 | .738 | 119 | -.363 | 108 | .468 | 113 | 4.5 | 3.0 |
| 109 | Arkansas State | -.158 | .673 | 109 | -.567 | 119 | .142 | 79 | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| 110 | UNLV | -.165 | .618 | 99 | .086 | 43 | .564 | 118 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
| 111 | Tulane | -.170 | .455 | 77 | -.229 | 99 | .386 | 106 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 112 | San Jose State | -.172 | .398 | 71 | -.688 | 120 | -.106 | 49 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| 113 | Florida International | -.175 | .215 | 30 | -.391 | 109 | .403 | 107 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| 114 | San Diego State | -.177 | .606 | 96 | -.180 | 88 | .477 | 114 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| 115 | Utah State | -.184 | .615 | 98 | -.212 | 95 | .335 | 95 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| 116 | Florida Atlantic | -.199 | .739 | 120 | -.423 | 110 | .349 | 99 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| 117 | Western Kentucky | -.202 | .662 | 107 | -.106 | 79 | .229 | 86 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| 118 | North Texas | -.205 | .647 | 103 | -.224 | 98 | .525 | 115 | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| 119 | New Mexico State | -.259 | .534 | 85 | -.456 | 112 | .243 | 88 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 120 | Idaho | -.289 | .737 | 118 | -.271 | 105 | .700 | 120 | 2.1 | 1.5 |