Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 9/27/14

NOTE: Full F/+ rankings, complete with special teams ratings, will be available seven weeks into the season.

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Alabama 4-0 25.1% 1 0 254.7 1 0.263 4
2 Oregon 4-0 24.4% 3 1 245.7 8 0.311 1
3 Stanford 3-1 24.0% 7 4 252.0 4 0.256 6
4 Oklahoma 4-0 24.0% 4 0 253.2 3 0.246 7
5 Ole Miss 4-0 22.9% 8 3 253.9 2 0.214 11
6 Florida State 4-0 22.6% 2 -4 241.3 10 0.297 2
7 Mississippi State 4-0 22.0% 10 3 251.8 5 0.208 12
8 Auburn 4-0 21.9% 9 1 242.7 9 0.271 3
9 Baylor 4-0 21.3% 6 -3 251.4 6 0.193 16
10 LSU 4-1 20.4% 11 1 247.1 7 0.202 13
11 Texas A&M 5-0 19.4% 5 -6 235.6 14 0.259 5
12 USC 3-1 16.2% 20 8 227.5 23 0.240 8
13 Michigan State 3-1 16.1% 12 -1 238.0 13 0.160 23
14 Louisville 4-1 15.8% 13 -1 239.5 11 0.144 29
15 UCLA 4-0 15.8% 22 7 226.5 24 0.237 9
16 Georgia 3-1 15.0% 14 -2 228.8 19 0.200 14
17 Ohio State 3-1 14.4% 17 0 228.4 20 0.188 17
18 TCU 3-0 14.3% 18 0 229.2 17 0.179 20
19 Wisconsin 3-1 13.6% 15 -4 227.7 22 0.174 22
20 Notre Dame 4-0 13.6% 16 -4 224.7 27 0.194 15
21 West Virginia 2-2 13.5% 43 22 238.8 12 0.092 41
22 Clemson 2-2 13.4% 24 2 226.3 25 0.179 19
23 Virginia Tech 3-2 12.9% 27 4 229.4 15 0.144 28
24 Arkansas 3-2 12.4% 34 10 229.2 16 0.133 31
25 Oklahoma State 3-1 12.3% 19 -6 223.3 30 0.174 21
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
26 South Carolina 3-2 11.7% 23 -3 225.5 26 0.143 30
27 BYU 4-0 11.5% 28 1 219.0 33 0.183 18
28 Kansas State 3-1 11.4% 29 1 223.3 29 0.151 26
29 Missouri 4-1 11.3% 26 -3 213.8 42 0.216 10
30 Nebraska 5-0 11.1% 31 1 221.5 32 0.155 25
31 Miami 3-2 11.0% 36 5 229.2 18 0.098 37
32 Marshall 4-0 10.1% 38 6 224.6 28 0.109 34
33 Maryland 4-1 7.9% 46 13 212.0 45 0.144 27
34 Boise State 3-2 7.4% 35 1 227.8 21 0.019 68
35 East Carolina 3-1 7.3% 40 5 215.1 39 0.108 35
36 Minnesota 4-1 7.2% 63 27 222.2 31 0.055 52
37 Florida 2-1 7.2% 49 12 217.2 37 0.090 42
38 Utah 3-1 7.1% 21 -17 207.5 54 0.158 24
39 Penn State 4-1 6.9% 33 -6 217.3 36 0.081 44
40 Washington State 2-3 6.8% 59 19 214.2 41 0.103 36
41 Georgia Tech 4-0 6.7% 42 1 210.5 47 0.127 32
42 Arizona 4-0 6.1% 41 -1 208.7 51 0.125 33
43 Rutgers 4-1 5.8% 52 9 211.4 46 0.098 38
44 Pittsburgh 3-2 5.4% 30 -14 216.4 38 0.052 54
45 Virginia 3-2 5.4% 50 5 212.3 44 0.080 46
46 Washington 4-1 4.8% 47 1 208.6 52 0.094 39
47 Tennessee 2-2 4.8% 62 15 218.3 34 0.022 65
48 N.C. State 4-1 4.8% 48 0 212.7 43 0.062 50
49 Michigan 2-3 4.6% 32 -17 218.0 35 0.019 67
50 Navy 2-3 4.5% 53 3 215.0 40 0.039 57
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
51 Boston College 3-2 3.3% 51 0 205.9 55 0.075 47
52 California 3-1 3.2% 56 4 208.5 53 0.054 53
53 Northwestern 2-2 3.2% 68 15 204.6 58 0.082 43
54 Texas 2-2 3.1% 54 0 209.5 50 0.044 55
55 Oregon State 3-1 3.1% 37 -18 202.8 63 0.092 40
56 Memphis 2-2 2.9% 70 14 210.5 48 0.032 63
57 Arizona State 3-1 2.9% 25 -32 210.4 49 0.032 61
58 Iowa 4-1 2.9% 44 -14 203.6 62 0.081 45
59 Duke 4-1 2.0% 45 -14 202.0 67 0.072 48
60 Central Florida 1-2 1.6% 55 -5 201.1 69 0.068 49
61 Cincinnati 2-1 1.3% 57 -4 204.7 57 0.034 60
62 Iowa State 1-3 1.2% 66 4 204.2 59 0.037 59
63 UTSA 1-3 0.4% 60 -3 201.8 68 0.032 62
64 Indiana 2-2 0.4% 39 -25 202.2 66 0.029 64
65 Northern Illinois 2-1 0.1% 69 4 204.1 60 0.008 72
66 Colorado State 3-1 0.0% 71 5 202.5 65 0.019 69
67 Texas Tech 2-2 -0.5% 58 -9 203.8 61 -0.003 73
68 Syracuse 2-2 -0.5% 64 -4 197.6 75 0.042 56
69 Western Kentucky 2-2 -1.2% 74 5 198.0 73 0.022 66
70 North Carolina 2-2 -1.4% 61 -9 198.1 72 0.016 71
71 Nevada 3-1 -1.6% 72 1 191.5 91 0.058 51
72 Toledo 3-2 -2.4% 65 -7 197.9 74 -0.007 74
73 Georgia Southern 3-2 -2.4% 79 6 200.9 70 -0.029 75
74 Temple 3-1 -3.2% 80 6 191.8 88 0.017 70
75 Houston 2-2 -3.2% 67 -8 188.5 97 0.039 58
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
76 Kentucky 3-1 -3.3% 73 -3 204.7 56 -0.080 82
77 Illinois 3-2 -4.4% 75 -2 202.7 64 -0.092 85
78 Air Force 3-1 -4.9% 92 14 197.1 77 -0.065 77
79 Akron 2-2 -5.1% 108 29 200.8 71 -0.096 88
80 Louisiana Tech 2-3 -6.0% 76 -4 197.2 76 -0.093 87
81 Colorado 2-3 -6.3% 83 2 193.7 83 -0.074 80
82 Western Michigan 2-2 -6.9% 81 -1 194.1 82 -0.092 86
83 Utah State 2-2 -7.1% 77 -6 190.4 92 -0.070 78
84 Middle Tennessee 3-2 -7.5% 100 16 191.6 90 -0.090 84
85 San Diego State 2-2 -7.6% 78 -7 188.7 95 -0.071 79
86 Arkansas State 2-2 -8.1% 89 3 192.8 85 -0.114 89
87 South Alabama 2-2 -8.2% 101 14 196.1 79 -0.139 97
88 San Jose State 1-3 -8.5% 91 3 196.2 78 -0.148 101
89 Hawaii 1-3 -9.4% 84 -5 183.4 108 -0.078 81
90 Rice 1-3 -9.6% 99 9 192.5 86 -0.147 100
91 Purdue 2-3 -9.6% 93 2 191.7 89 -0.142 98
92 UAB 2-2 -9.7% 85 -7 192.0 87 -0.146 99
93 Florida Atlantic 2-3 -9.9% 104 11 194.8 81 -0.171 108
94 Wake Forest 1-3 -10.6% 103 9 181.0 113 -0.089 83
95 Kansas 2-2 -10.6% 90 -5 186.4 99 -0.128 93
96 Ball State 1-3 -10.8% 88 -8 176.4 118 -0.061 76
97 Bowling Green 3-2 -10.9% 82 -15 183.9 105 -0.118 90
98 Vanderbilt 1-4 -11.2% 102 4 193.6 84 -0.196 112
99 Army 1-3 -11.4% 97 -2 184.7 103 -0.137 95
100 Central Michigan 2-3 -11.5% 94 -6 186.8 98 -0.153 104
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Tulane 1-4 -11.5% 87 -14 186.1 101 -0.150 103
102 Florida International 2-3 -11.6% 116 14 183.9 104 -0.136 94
103 Fresno State 2-3 -11.7% 98 -5 188.6 96 -0.172 109
104 Miami (Ohio) 0-5 -12.2% 113 9 180.1 115 -0.123 92
105 Buffalo 3-2 -12.2% 96 -9 186.0 102 -0.166 106
106 Texas State 2-2 -12.4% 107 1 181.6 111 -0.138 96
107 Wyoming 3-2 -12.4% 111 4 196.1 80 -0.244 120
108 Connecticut 1-4 -12.7% 86 -22 178.2 116 -0.122 91
109 Tulsa 1-3 -12.8% 106 -3 183.7 107 -0.164 105
110 South Florida 2-3 -13.3% 109 -1 183.8 106 -0.177 110
111 UTEP 2-2 -13.8% 95 -16 186.2 100 -0.206 113
112 Old Dominion 3-2 -14.0% 119 7 180.1 114 -0.168 107
113 UL-Lafayette 1-3 -14.2% 114 1 189.9 93 -0.244 121
114 Ohio 3-2 -14.5% 115 1 189.0 94 -0.244 119
115 New Mexico 1-3 -15.4% 105 -10 182.1 110 -0.218 117
116 UL-Monroe 3-1 -16.2% 110 -6 182.5 109 -0.239 118
117 North Texas 2-2 -16.8% 112 -5 168.0 127 -0.150 102
118 Massachusetts 0-5 -17.2% 122 4 175.6 119 -0.213 115
119 UNLV 1-4 -17.2% 117 -2 172.6 123 -0.193 111
120 Kent State 0-4 -17.2% 118 -2 174.4 120 -0.207 114
121 Idaho 0-4 -18.1% 120 -1 172.3 124 -0.214 116
122 SMU 0-4 -18.4% 121 -1 181.5 112 -0.286 125
123 Georgia State 1-3 -19.5% 125 2 172.8 122 -0.251 122
124 Southern Miss 2-3 -19.7% 123 -1 173.0 121 -0.258 123
125 Troy 0-5 -20.2% 127 2 177.0 117 -0.298 128
126 New Mexico State 2-3 -20.5% 126 0 171.5 125 -0.267 124
127 Appalachian State 1-3 -22.2% 124 -3 169.4 126 -0.294 126
128 Eastern Michigan 1-3 -24.4% 128 0 161.9 128 -0.295 127