Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 10/25/14

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
1 Ole Miss 7-1 35.5% 1 0 10.1% 22 23.5% 2 1.9% 25
2 Auburn 6-1 35.0% 5 3 19.4% 3 14.9% 10 0.7% 50
3 Alabama 7-1 34.1% 3 0 17.2% 5 18.5% 6 -1.5% 96
4 Mississippi State 7-0 32.2% 6 2 14.6% 9 16.4% 8 1.3% 37
5 Oregon 7-1 31.5% 7 2 20.4% 2 9.3% 28 1.8% 26
6 Oklahoma 5-2 31.1% 2 -4 18.0% 4 9.3% 27 3.9% 8
7 TCU 6-1 28.7% 4 -3 11.4% 16 13.8% 12 3.5% 10
8 Ohio State 6-1 27.7% 8 0 14.5% 10 9.2% 29 4.0% 7
9 Clemson 6-2 27.0% 11 2 5.6% 43 22.7% 4 -1.2% 91
10 Michigan State 7-1 26.9% 18 8 9.4% 26 17.8% 7 -0.3% 75
11 Florida State 7-0 26.6% 10 -1 15.8% 8 10.0% 25 0.7% 44
12 LSU 7-2 26.3% 27 15 9.7% 23 13.5% 14 3.0% 14
13 Nebraska 7-1 26.0% 17 4 8.9% 28 13.7% 13 3.3% 12
14 Georgia 6-1 25.2% 9 -5 14.3% 11 7.0% 39 3.8% 9
15 Louisville 6-2 24.7% 15 0 -0.3% 63 24.2% 1 0.7% 46
16 Miami 5-3 23.8% 26 10 16.8% 6 6.9% 40 0.1% 68
17 Kansas State 6-1 22.2% 23 6 8.0% 33 12.8% 15 1.4% 30
18 Arizona State 6-1 21.9% 13 -5 13.0% 14 7.5% 35 1.4% 31
19 Notre Dame 6-1 21.5% 19 0 8.4% 31 11.6% 20 1.5% 29
20 Baylor 6-1 21.3% 14 -6 8.7% 29 12.0% 19 0.6% 52
21 Stanford 5-3 21.0% 28 7 -1.0% 64 22.9% 3 -0.8% 84
22 Marshall 8-0 20.3% 16 -6 8.4% 32 10.2% 24 1.7% 27
23 USC 5-3 20.2% 21 -2 13.2% 13 6.9% 41 0.0% 69
24 UCLA 6-2 19.8% 12 -12 13.6% 12 5.7% 43 0.5% 59
25 West Virginia 6-2 18.8% 22 -3 10.9% 18 7.4% 36 0.5% 60
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
26 Georgia Tech 6-2 18.8% 25 -1 22.6% 1 -6.0% 87 2.1% 20
27 Arizona 6-1 18.3% 29 2 10.3% 20 6.7% 42 1.3% 36
28 Duke 6-1 17.4% 24 -4 1.3% 57 12.0% 18 4.0% 5
29 Wisconsin 5-2 16.5% 49 20 6.2% 40 12.1% 17 -1.8% 101
30 Virginia Tech 4-4 14.9% 20 -10 -7.8% 100 20.4% 5 2.3% 17
31 Boise State 6-2 14.9% 45 14 5.4% 45 10.5% 23 -1.0% 86
32 Utah 6-1 14.6% 31 -1 -4.5% 79 14.8% 11 4.3% 3
33 Boston College 5-3 13.8% 32 -1 6.4% 39 8.6% 31 -1.2% 89
34 Colorado State 7-1 12.9% 37 3 9.6% 24 0.7% 59 2.6% 15
35 Arkansas 4-4 12.6% 50 15 7.7% 34 7.8% 33 -2.9% 119
36 Virginia 4-4 11.6% 30 -6 2.5% 52 9.6% 26 -0.5% 76
37 Tennessee 3-5 9.8% 38 1 -1.7% 69 10.8% 22 0.7% 49
38 Pittsburgh 4-4 9.5% 33 -5 8.5% 30 -0.2% 64 1.1% 38
39 Missouri 6-2 8.7% 36 -3 -7.5% 96 12.7% 16 3.5% 11
40 Penn State 4-3 8.4% 42 2 -5.6% 83 16.2% 9 -2.2% 106
41 BYU 4-4 8.2% 34 -7 9.2% 27 -3.0% 75 2.0% 22
42 Minnesota 6-2 8.0% 39 -3 -2.4% 73 8.2% 32 2.2% 18
43 Maryland 5-3 5.5% 35 -8 -2.3% 72 3.4% 50 4.3% 2
44 Oklahoma State 5-3 5.5% 44 0 -1.5% 68 3.0% 52 4.0% 6
45 California 4-4 5.4% 43 -2 6.5% 38 -0.4% 66 -0.7% 80
46 East Carolina 6-1 5.2% 40 -6 11.0% 17 -3.3% 77 -2.6% 115
47 Memphis 4-3 4.5% 47 0 -1.8% 71 2.1% 56 4.2% 4
48 Northwestern 3-4 3.8% 57 9 1.9% 53 4.5% 48 -2.6% 117
49 Iowa 5-2 3.7% 46 -3 -4.2% 78 9.0% 30 -1.2% 90
50 Georgia Southern 6-2 3.6% 64 14 5.8% 42 -2.7% 71 0.4% 63
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
51 Air Force 5-2 3.2% 54 3 -6.4% 89 7.6% 34 2.0% 24
52 South Carolina 4-4 2.7% 41 -11 16.5% 7 -14.8% 119 1.0% 40
53 N.C. State 4-4 2.2% 60 7 5.1% 46 -3.5% 79 0.6% 53
54 Rutgers 5-3 1.7% 48 -6 3.7% 48 -2.4% 70 0.4% 62
55 Navy 4-4 1.6% 65 10 10.1% 21 -6.8% 90 -1.7% 99
56 Florida 3-3 1.5% 58 2 -4.6% 81 5.6% 44 0.4% 61
57 Central Florida 5-2 1.5% 51 -6 -1.4% 67 4.4% 49 -1.5% 97
58 Utah State 5-3 1.5% 53 -5 -7.7% 99 11.3% 21 -2.2% 107
59 North Carolina 4-4 1.3% 68 9 9.6% 25 -6.2% 89 -2.1% 104
60 Michigan 3-5 1.3% 55 -5 -3.4% 75 4.7% 46 -0.1% 71
61 Nevada 5-3 1.2% 52 -9 3.4% 49 -3.0% 74 0.8% 42
62 Texas A&M 5-3 0.8% 59 -3 5.9% 41 -5.2% 84 0.2% 65
63 Washington 5-3 0.4% 62 -1 -6.8% 94 7.1% 38 0.1% 67
64 Purdue 3-5 -0.1% 67 3 3.3% 51 -4.6% 81 1.3% 34
65 Oregon State 4-3 -1.8% 56 -9 -0.2% 62 -0.9% 68 -0.8% 83
66 Iowa State 2-5 -2.4% 66 0 5.5% 44 -8.6% 96 0.7% 45
67 Texas 3-5 -2.6% 63 -4 -6.3% 86 7.4% 37 -3.7% 121
68 Texas Tech 3-5 -2.7% 71 3 7.2% 35 -10.6% 100 0.7% 47
69 Western Michigan 5-3 -2.9% 74 5 -1.2% 65 0.6% 60 -2.3% 110
70 Washington State 2-6 -2.9% 61 -9 12.5% 15 -7.9% 94 -7.5% 126
71 Arkansas State 4-3 -3.8% 69 -2 1.0% 58 -2.9% 73 -1.9% 102
72 Kentucky 5-3 -3.9% 76 4 -3.4% 76 1.8% 57 -2.3% 112
73 Louisiana Tech 5-3 -4.3% 78 5 -6.6% 92 2.5% 54 -0.2% 73
74 Toledo 5-3 -4.4% 73 -1 10.8% 19 -15.2% 120 0.0% 70
75 Colorado 2-6 -4.8% 80 5 1.4% 55 -5.7% 85 -0.6% 78
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
76 Syracuse 3-5 -4.9% 79 3 -3.0% 74 -1.3% 69 -0.6% 79
77 Western Kentucky 3-4 -6.9% 84 7 6.5% 37 -12.7% 111 -0.7% 81
78 Houston 4-3 -7.1% 77 -1 -10.5% 109 4.6% 47 -1.3% 93
79 Cincinnati 4-3 -7.3% 85 6 1.4% 56 -9.4% 98 0.6% 55
80 Illinois 4-4 -7.5% 90 10 0.5% 61 -8.6% 95 0.6% 54
81 Middle Tennessee 5-3 -8.5% 81 0 -6.4% 90 -3.4% 78 1.3% 35
82 Indiana 3-4 -8.9% 83 1 3.3% 50 -13.6% 113 1.4% 32
83 UTSA 2-6 -9.0% 70 -13 -12.2% 115 1.2% 58 2.0% 23
84 Akron 4-4 -9.2% 75 -9 -10.7% 111 -0.6% 67 2.1% 21
85 Central Michigan 5-4 -9.3% 88 3 -6.8% 95 -0.1% 63 -2.4% 114
86 UAB 4-4 -9.6% 72 -14 -5.8% 84 -6.9% 91 3.1% 13
87 San Diego State 4-3 -9.8% 86 -1 -6.7% 93 -4.2% 80 1.1% 39
88 Florida International 3-5 -10.5% 82 -6 -13.2% 117 5.0% 45 -2.2% 108
89 Wake Forest 1-6 -10.6% 91 2 -17.5% 126 2.4% 55 4.5% 1
90 South Alabama 5-2 -10.6% 93 3 -14.0% 120 2.8% 53 0.5% 58
91 Northern Illinois 5-2 -10.9% 92 1 4.6% 47 -15.7% 122 0.2% 64
92 New Mexico 2-5 -11.1% 87 -5 1.7% 54 -11.7% 108 -1.1% 88
93 Hawaii 2-6 -12.0% 89 -4 -13.3% 118 -0.2% 65 1.6% 28
94 UL-Lafayette 4-3 -12.0% 103 9 -1.7% 70 -11.1% 103 0.8% 43
95 UTEP 4-3 -13.3% 110 15 -6.1% 85 -5.0% 82 -2.1% 105
96 Temple 4-3 -13.5% 95 -1 -9.6% 107 -6.1% 88 2.2% 19
97 Old Dominion 3-5 -14.1% 105 8 6.7% 36 -16.8% 124 -3.9% 122
98 Florida Atlantic 3-5 -14.5% 94 -4 -5.2% 82 -10.7% 101 1.3% 33
99 Fresno State 3-5 -14.8% 97 -2 -7.5% 97 -5.8% 86 -1.4% 95
100 San Jose State 3-4 -15.1% 96 -4 -7.8% 101 -3.2% 76 -4.0% 123
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
101 Connecticut 1-6 -15.2% 104 3 -15.9% 123 0.2% 61 0.6% 57
102 Ball State 3-5 -15.5% 99 -3 -6.3% 88 -11.6% 107 2.4% 16
103 Rice 4-3 -15.5% 101 -2 0.8% 60 -14.7% 117 -1.6% 98
104 Tulane 2-5 -15.9% 100 -4 -8.3% 103 0.0% 62 -7.6% 127
105 Kansas 2-5 -16.4% 102 -3 -13.6% 119 3.4% 51 -6.2% 125
106 Miami (Ohio) 2-7 -16.9% 98 -8 -6.3% 87 -9.5% 99 -1.0% 87
107 Massachusetts 2-7 -18.0% 107 0 -1.3% 66 -14.1% 114 -2.6% 116
108 Bowling Green 5-3 -20.1% 111 3 -9.4% 106 -11.5% 106 0.8% 41
109 Idaho 1-6 -20.6% 112 3 -3.9% 77 -17.2% 127 0.6% 56
110 Kent State 1-7 -20.6% 114 4 -14.4% 121 -5.2% 83 -1.0% 85
111 South Florida 3-5 -20.9% 109 -2 -11.7% 114 -8.9% 97 -0.2% 74
112 Wyoming 3-5 -20.9% 108 -4 -6.4% 91 -11.4% 104 -3.1% 120
113 Georgia State 1-7 -21.4% 106 -7 1.0% 59 -20.2% 128 -2.2% 109
114 Buffalo 3-5 -21.8% 116 2 -4.5% 80 -15.2% 121 -2.1% 103
115 Vanderbilt 2-6 -22.1% 115 0 -15.2% 122 -7.5% 92 0.7% 48
116 Tulsa 1-6 -22.4% 113 -3 -7.5% 98 -14.1% 115 -0.7% 82
117 UL-Monroe 3-4 -22.7% 118 1 -17.3% 125 -2.8% 72 -2.7% 118
118 Southern Miss 3-5 -23.4% 119 1 -10.6% 110 -12.6% 110 -0.1% 72
119 New Mexico State 2-6 -23.4% 117 -2 -8.6% 104 -12.4% 109 -2.3% 113
120 Texas State 4-3 -23.5% 122 2 -11.1% 113 -11.0% 102 -1.4% 94
121 Ohio 4-5 -24.5% 120 -1 -10.8% 112 -11.4% 105 -2.3% 111
122 Army 2-5 -24.6% 121 -1 -8.7% 105 -14.8% 118 -1.2% 92
123 UNLV 2-6 -25.1% 123 0 -8.2% 102 -17.0% 125 0.1% 66
124 North Texas 2-6 -29.0% 124 0 -16.3% 124 -13.3% 112 0.6% 51
125 Troy 1-7 -31.3% 125 0 -12.7% 116 -16.8% 123 -1.7% 100
126 Eastern Michigan 2-6 -31.5% 126 0 -19.7% 127 -7.5% 93 -4.3% 124
127 Appalachian State 2-5 -35.4% 127 0 -9.7% 108 -17.1% 126 -8.6% 128
128 SMU 0-7 -38.5% 128 0 -23.3% 128 -14.7% 116 -0.6% 77