Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/12/15

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Rk Team Record F/+ Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Ohio State 14-1 42.9% 21.0% 2 19.6% 2 2.4% 22 280.8 1 0.308 2
2 Alabama 12-2 37.6% 19.5% 4 19.0% 3 -0.9% 88 272.8 2 0.303 3
3 Oregon 13-2 36.2% 20.2% 3 13.3% 11 2.8% 17 257.6 3 0.330 1
4 TCU 12-1 31.1% 10.0% 16 17.3% 6 3.9% 8 246.5 9 0.252 6
5 Georgia 10-3 31.0% 15.6% 7 11.6% 14 3.7% 9 243.0 11 0.275 5
6 Georgia Tech 11-3 27.4% 23.4% 1 2.2% 49 1.8% 31 231.8 20 0.281 4
7 Ole Miss 9-4 25.8% 7.5% 30 17.9% 4 0.5% 59 247.9 5 0.199 11
8 Baylor 11-2 25.3% 14.5% 8 9.7% 22 1.1% 44 247.6 6 0.202 10
9 Clemson 10-3 24.3% 1.2% 54 25.2% 1 -2.1% 103 247.1 7 0.197 14
10 Florida State 13-1 24.2% 15.8% 6 7.7% 29 0.7% 50 234.5 18 0.227 7
11 Michigan State 11-2 24.2% 12.1% 12 9.4% 23 2.8% 18 246.9 8 0.188 15
12 Mississippi State 10-3 24.0% 11.6% 13 11.4% 15 0.9% 47 244.5 10 0.186 17
13 Auburn 8-5 23.5% 18.3% 5 5.6% 37 -0.4% 76 237.4 13 0.198 12
14 Marshall 13-1 23.1% 8.1% 27 11.8% 12 3.1% 10 255.6 4 0.119 30
15 UCLA 10-3 19.8% 14.5% 9 4.4% 42 1.0% 45 225.7 22 0.220 8
16 LSU 8-5 19.7% 5.1% 40 11.7% 13 2.9% 13 233.0 19 0.128 27
17 Oklahoma 8-5 19.2% 11.6% 14 5.3% 39 2.3% 23 236.9 14 0.117 32
18 Wisconsin 11-3 19.1% 9.3% 18 10.7% 18 -0.8% 86 240.2 12 0.138 24
19 Arkansas 7-6 19.0% 9.0% 22 10.8% 17 -0.8% 87 234.6 17 0.167 21
20 Stanford 8-5 18.9% 4.1% 44 15.4% 7 -0.6% 79 234.9 16 0.183 18
21 USC 9-4 18.0% 8.4% 24 8.7% 25 1.0% 46 224.2 23 0.215 9
22 Louisville 9-4 17.4% 3.8% 45 14.7% 8 -1.2% 91 231.2 21 0.159 22
23 Arizona State 10-3 16.5% 7.1% 32 8.0% 28 1.4% 38 215.7 35 0.197 13
24 Boise State 12-2 15.8% 7.6% 29 8.7% 26 -0.4% 75 235.0 15 0.119 31
25 Kansas State 9-4 15.5% 9.0% 21 1.4% 51 5.1% 4 218.2 30 0.131 25
Rk Team Record F/+ Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
26 Missouri 11-3 15.4% 3.3% 48 10.6% 19 1.5% 35 219.4 26 0.171 20
27 Nebraska 9-4 13.9% 5.3% 38 4.2% 43 4.4% 6 215.8 33 0.125 29
28 Duke 9-4 13.3% 3.4% 47 3.1% 47 6.8% 1 198.2 67 0.130 26
29 Utah 9-4 13.2% -1.4% 67 9.9% 21 4.7% 5 206.5 55 0.187 16
30 Miami-FL 6-7 13.1% 7.3% 31 7.2% 32 -1.4% 92 222.3 24 0.103 37
31 Virginia Tech 7-6 12.9% -5.6% 91 17.5% 5 1.1% 42 218.9 28 0.141 23
32 Boston College 7-6 12.8% 8.6% 23 3.0% 48 1.1% 41 217.4 31 0.126 28
33 Arizona 10-4 12.5% 6.6% 34 6.1% 36 -0.1% 69 212.1 43 0.182 19
34 Tennessee 7-6 11.8% 0.7% 57 8.3% 27 2.8% 15 219.4 27 0.108 34
35 Memphis 10-3 10.9% -1.9% 71 6.7% 34 6.1% 2 213.8 37 0.092 40
36 Notre Dame 8-5 10.9% 9.1% 20 1.3% 53 0.5% 58 214.5 36 0.096 38
37 Florida 7-5 10.7% -5.2% 86 13.7% 10 2.2% 24 213.1 41 0.109 33
38 Minnesota 8-5 10.1% 3.2% 49 4.0% 45 3.0% 12 211.1 45 0.095 39
39 West Virginia 7-6 9.3% 1.6% 52 7.3% 31 0.4% 60 220.9 25 0.076 44
40 Virginia 5-7 9.2% -1.9% 70 10.9% 16 0.2% 63 206.0 57 0.107 35
41 Colorado State 10-3 9.0% 8.2% 26 -1.2% 63 2.0% 27 213.8 38 0.078 43
42 Pittsburgh 6-7 8.3% 13.3% 11 -5.5% 89 0.4% 61 213.6 40 0.089 41
43 Air Force 10-3 7.7% -2.2% 72 7.0% 33 2.9% 14 210.1 48 0.051 47
44 BYU 8-5 7.1% 5.1% 39 0.8% 59 1.3% 40 210.1 47 0.056 45
45 Texas A&M 8-5 6.4% 9.1% 19 -4.4% 81 1.7% 33 212.3 42 0.043 48
46 NC State 8-5 6.2% 6.6% 33 -2.0% 68 1.6% 34 211.7 44 0.018 55
47 South Carolina 7-6 6.1% 13.9% 10 -9.3% 108 1.5% 37 207.7 54 0.104 36
48 Cincinnati 9-4 5.8% 8.2% 25 -4.2% 80 1.9% 30 210.4 46 0.001 61
49 Louisiana Tech 9-5 4.8% -4.3% 81 9.0% 24 0.1% 65 218.6 29 0.033 50
50 Penn State 7-6 4.8% -6.2% 96 14.3% 9 -3.3% 116 217.2 32 0.051 46
Rk Team Record F/+ Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
51 Western Michigan 8-5 3.8% 2.4% 50 1.2% 55 0.2% 64 208.9 52 0.016 58
52 Navy 8-5 3.4% 10.1% 15 -3.5% 75 -3.1% 113 213.6 39 0.026 52
53 Washington 8-6 3.2% -5.6% 92 6.3% 35 2.5% 21 194.8 73 0.079 42
54 Maryland 7-6 3.2% 0.5% 59 -1.4% 66 4.2% 7 199.4 64 -0.017 65
55 Central Florida 9-4 2.4% -2.4% 75 5.1% 40 -0.3% 74 203.5 58 0.025 53
56 Michigan 5-7 2.0% -3.0% 76 5.0% 41 0.0% 67 206.3 56 -0.019 67
57 East Carolina 8-5 2.0% 5.8% 37 -0.8% 62 -3.1% 112 208.0 53 0.038 49
58 Utah State 10-4 1.9% -4.2% 79 7.7% 30 -1.6% 94 209.6 50 0.009 60
59 California 5-7 0.7% 6.5% 35 -5.5% 91 -0.3% 72 200.0 63 0.026 51
60 Texas 6-7 0.6% -6.3% 99 10.2% 20 -3.3% 114 215.8 34 -0.034 73
61 Georgia Southern 9-3 0.5% 4.5% 43 -3.4% 74 -0.6% 80 210.1 49 -0.026 70
62 Toledo 9-4 0.3% 6.4% 36 -6.7% 99 0.6% 55 203.3 59 -0.021 68
63 Rutgers 8-5 -1.4% 0.9% 55 -2.4% 70 0.1% 66 202.0 60 -0.055 77
64 Western Kentucky 8-5 -1.5% 9.7% 17 -8.2% 103 -3.1% 111 209.5 51 -0.011 63
65 San Diego State 7-6 -1.5% -6.1% 95 1.9% 50 2.7% 19 198.8 65 -0.025 69
66 Iowa 7-6 -1.8% -0.6% 63 1.0% 57 -2.3% 104 193.7 74 0.023 54
67 Oklahoma State 7-6 -2.2% -2.3% 73 -3.0% 71 3.1% 11 196.6 70 -0.046 75
68 Temple 6-6 -2.6% -10.1% 110 5.4% 38 2.1% 26 194.9 72 -0.019 66
69 UAB 6-6 -2.6% -4.4% 82 -4.1% 79 6.0% 3 193.0 76 -0.057 78
70 Oregon State 5-7 -3.5% 1.4% 53 -4.7% 83 -0.1% 70 192.1 79 -0.009 62
71 Nevada 7-6 -3.9% -0.9% 65 -4.9% 86 1.9% 29 190.6 82 0.017 56
72 Northwestern 5-7 -4.2% -5.4% 88 4.0% 44 -2.8% 110 189.6 85 0.017 57
73 Northern Illinois 11-3 -5.0% 0.0% 60 -5.6% 92 0.7% 53 198.3 66 -0.058 79
74 Arkansas State 7-6 -5.1% 0.6% 58 -5.5% 90 -0.3% 73 197.7 68 -0.068 84
75 Illinois 6-7 -5.9% -1.4% 66 -5.3% 88 0.7% 51 192.9 77 -0.062 81
Rk Team Record F/+ Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
76 Texas Tech 4-8 -6.0% 4.7% 42 -9.9% 110 -0.8% 84 193.3 75 -0.082 87
77 Central Michigan 7-6 -6.0% 0.7% 56 -3.0% 73 -3.7% 119 201.6 61 -0.064 82
78 Houston 8-5 -6.1% -2.3% 74 -2.2% 69 -1.6% 96 188.6 87 0.010 59
79 UL-Lafayette 9-4 -7.5% -0.5% 62 -7.7% 102 0.6% 54 200.0 62 -0.107 93
80 Colorado 2-10 -7.7% -0.4% 61 -6.5% 96 -0.8% 85 188.4 88 -0.046 74
81 Purdue 3-9 -8.0% -6.4% 100 -1.2% 64 -0.5% 77 185.2 94 -0.061 80
82 Kentucky 5-7 -8.3% -1.9% 69 -4.0% 77 -2.4% 107 196.8 69 -0.049 76
83 North Carolina 6-7 -8.3% 4.8% 41 -10.4% 112 -2.8% 109 189.3 86 -0.030 71
84 Syracuse 3-9 -8.6% -9.7% 108 3.4% 46 -2.4% 105 187.2 90 -0.033 72
85 Middle Tennessee 6-6 -8.8% -4.6% 83 -4.7% 85 0.5% 56 191.8 80 -0.104 92
86 Indiana 4-8 -9.3% -5.3% 87 -3.0% 72 -1.0% 89 190.8 81 -0.065 83
87 Wake Forest 3-9 -10.1% -13.9% 124 1.2% 56 2.7% 20 174.4 114 -0.080 86
88 Texas State 7-5 -11.1% -7.0% 101 -6.3% 95 2.1% 25 187.2 89 -0.126 94
89 New Mexico 4-8 -11.7% 2.2% 51 -13.1% 122 -0.8% 83 186.2 93 -0.130 97
90 Washington State 3-9 -11.7% 3.6% 46 -6.3% 94 -9.0% 127 195.0 71 -0.017 64
91 South Alabama 6-7 -12.1% -12.8% 118 0.8% 58 -0.1% 68 190.4 83 -0.139 101
92 Rice 8-5 -12.2% -0.7% 64 -9.9% 111 -1.6% 93 189.7 84 -0.129 96
93 Ball State 5-7 -12.4% -7.2% 103 -7.0% 100 1.7% 32 177.7 106 -0.077 85
94 Iowa State 2-10 -12.4% -1.5% 68 -11.2% 117 0.3% 62 174.9 111 -0.093 88
95 UTEP 7-6 -12.7% -7.3% 104 -3.5% 76 -1.9% 100 187.2 91 -0.155 109
96 Florida Atlantic 3-9 -14.1% -6.2% 97 -8.6% 104 0.8% 48 181.4 97 -0.135 99
97 Akron 5-7 -14.1% -13.2% 122 -1.8% 67 0.8% 49 180.1 100 -0.134 98
98 UTSA 4-8 -14.6% -15.1% 126 -1.4% 65 2.0% 28 179.3 102 -0.143 104
99 UL-Monroe 4-8 -14.6% -13.1% 121 -0.7% 61 -0.8% 82 182.2 96 -0.139 102
100 Florida International 4-8 -14.8% -15.0% 125 1.3% 54 -1.1% 90 178.7 103 -0.097 91
Rk Team Record F/+ Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Bowling Green 8-5 -16.2% -6.3% 98 -10.4% 113 0.5% 57 178.6 104 -0.156 112
102 Hawaii 4-9 -16.5% -11.4% 115 -6.6% 97 1.5% 36 166.7 121 -0.096 89
103 Buffalo 5-6 -16.5% -3.6% 78 -9.4% 109 -3.5% 118 181.1 98 -0.136 100
104 Army 4-8 -17.2% -5.5% 90 -11.0% 116 -0.7% 81 174.3 115 -0.159 114
105 Old Dominion 6-6 -17.2% 7.6% 28 -18.2% 128 -6.6% 122 186.7 92 -0.167 116
106 Fresno State 6-8 -17.3% -9.6% 107 -8.7% 106 1.1% 43 174.6 112 -0.127 95
107 Tulane 3-9 -17.4% -10.3% 112 1.3% 52 -8.4% 126 183.0 95 -0.097 90
108 Idaho 1-10 -17.6% -4.9% 84 -15.5% 125 2.8% 16 173.5 116 -0.184 119
109 Vanderbilt 3-9 -17.7% -12.9% 120 -4.6% 82 -0.2% 71 175.8 110 -0.190 121
110 Kent State 2-9 -18.0% -11.3% 114 -5.0% 87 -1.8% 99 174.6 113 -0.156 110
111 Miami-OH 2-10 -18.1% -5.4% 89 -11.0% 115 -1.7% 97 177.5 107 -0.150 107
112 Kansas 3-9 -18.1% -12.2% 117 0.1% 60 -6.1% 121 179.9 101 -0.140 103
113 Ohio 6-6 -18.6% -11.2% 113 -5.8% 93 -1.6% 95 180.6 99 -0.172 117
114 Connecticut 2-10 -19.3% -13.4% 123 -4.0% 78 -1.9% 101 170.6 118 -0.150 106
115 Massachusetts 3-9 -19.8% -4.2% 80 -12.1% 118 -3.5% 117 176.6 109 -0.160 115
116 Tulsa 2-10 -20.2% -6.0% 94 -13.7% 123 -0.6% 78 165.5 123 -0.147 105
117 Appalachian State 7-5 -20.4% -3.2% 77 -6.6% 98 -10.7% 128 192.8 78 -0.156 111
118 San Jose State 3-9 -21.2% -9.0% 106 -4.7% 84 -7.5% 124 178.3 105 -0.155 108
119 Wyoming 4-8 -21.5% -5.0% 85 -8.7% 105 -7.9% 125 177.1 108 -0.176 118
120 Southern Miss 3-9 -21.8% -10.3% 111 -9.0% 107 -2.5% 108 173.2 117 -0.190 122
121 UNLV 2-11 -22.1% -7.2% 102 -15.6% 126 0.7% 52 161.8 126 -0.156 113
122 South Florida 4-8 -22.7% -12.9% 119 -7.5% 101 -2.4% 106 167.4 120 -0.186 120
123 North Texas 4-8 -23.1% -11.7% 116 -12.6% 120 1.3% 39 163.2 125 -0.220 124
124 Troy 3-9 -25.8% -10.0% 109 -14.0% 124 -1.7% 98 168.9 119 -0.256 126
125 Georgia State 1-11 -26.4% -6.0% 93 -17.2% 127 -3.3% 115 163.6 124 -0.263 127
126 New Mexico State 2-10 -27.9% -8.1% 105 -12.5% 119 -7.3% 123 165.9 122 -0.213 123
127 SMU 1-11 -31.4% -18.6% 128 -10.7% 114 -2.0% 102 152.6 127 -0.255 125
128 Eastern Michigan 2-10 -36.7% -18.4% 127 -12.8% 121 -5.5% 120 150.1 128 -0.321 128