Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 10/11/14

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
1 Ole Miss 6-0 36.2% 1 0 13.4% 13 20.8% 3 1.9% 33
2 Mississippi State 6-0 33.3% 2 0 14.1% 10 18.9% 5 0.3% 58
3 Auburn 5-1 29.7% 5 2 16.8% 6 10.9% 21 2.0% 32
4 Oklahoma 5-1 29.6% 3 -1 12.2% 16 11.2% 18 6.1% 3
5 TCU 4-1 28.9% 7 2 13.5% 12 11.1% 20 4.4% 7
6 Oregon 5-1 28.8% 6 0 17.6% 4 10.5% 22 0.7% 53
7 Baylor 6-0 26.6% 9 2 11.4% 18 16.1% 9 -0.8% 80
8 Stanford 4-2 26.0% 8 0 0.0% 63 23.7% 2 2.2% 25
9 Georgia 5-1 25.7% 21 12 16.3% 7 5.5% 43 3.9% 11
10 Alabama 5-1 25.4% 4 -6 11.0% 22 17.6% 8 -3.2% 111
11 Clemson 4-2 24.2% 20 9 7.1% 34 17.7% 7 -0.6% 77
12 Louisville 5-2 24.1% 17 5 -0.2% 66 23.9% 1 0.3% 59
13 Notre Dame 6-0 23.2% 11 -2 7.8% 32 13.7% 13 1.7% 36
14 Florida State 6-0 23.0% 12 -2 13.8% 11 8.8% 30 0.4% 57
15 UCLA 4-2 22.7% 10 -5 20.2% 1 3.1% 53 -0.7% 78
16 Ohio State 4-1 21.1% 13 -3 10.6% 24 6.9% 36 3.7% 13
17 USC 4-2 20.3% 22 5 14.2% 8 6.7% 37 -0.6% 75
18 Virginia Tech 4-2 20.2% 18 0 -2.3% 76 20.1% 4 2.3% 21
19 Michigan State 5-1 20.1% 14 -5 9.0% 27 9.7% 27 1.4% 40
20 Marshall 6-0 19.9% 15 -5 7.8% 31 10.0% 25 2.2% 28
21 Georgia Tech 5-1 19.0% 26 5 18.8% 2 -3.9% 80 4.1% 10
22 Nebraska 5-1 18.9% 25 3 3.9% 43 11.6% 16 3.4% 15
23 Virginia 4-2 18.0% 40 17 3.6% 47 13.5% 14 0.9% 52
24 Rutgers 5-1 16.8% 38 14 6.0% 36 8.0% 33 2.9% 17
25 Miami 4-3 16.4% 41 16 14.1% 9 2.3% 55 0.0% 64
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
26 Arizona 5-1 16.2% 19 -7 11.2% 19 5.5% 45 -0.5% 74
27 Arizona State 4-1 16.0% 34 7 12.4% 15 6.3% 40 -2.6% 102
28 Utah 4-1 16.0% 27 -1 -6.2% 93 15.0% 11 7.2% 1
29 Kansas State 4-1 15.3% 31 2 1.8% 56 13.4% 15 0.1% 62
30 Oklahoma State 5-1 14.8% 39 9 1.0% 57 8.2% 31 5.6% 4
31 Duke 5-1 14.4% 62 31 -1.7% 72 11.2% 19 4.9% 6
32 Tennessee 3-3 14.4% 48 16 -1.6% 71 14.3% 12 1.6% 37
33 Boston College 4-2 14.1% 49 16 5.6% 40 10.0% 24 -1.5% 89
34 BYU 4-2 14.0% 46 12 8.9% 28 -0.1% 63 5.2% 5
35 LSU 5-2 13.7% 23 -12 4.0% 42 7.4% 35 2.3% 23
36 Texas A&M 5-2 13.1% 16 -20 11.1% 20 1.0% 59 1.1% 47
37 Colorado State 5-1 12.7% 51 14 11.0% 23 -0.5% 67 2.2% 27
38 Pittsburgh 3-3 12.6% 37 -1 11.8% 17 -1.4% 70 2.2% 26
39 Minnesota 5-1 12.5% 42 3 -1.3% 70 10.1% 23 3.7% 12
40 Penn State 4-2 12.1% 29 -11 -3.8% 83 17.8% 6 -1.9% 93
41 California 4-2 12.0% 24 -17 8.6% 29 1.0% 58 2.4% 20
42 South Carolina 3-3 11.5% 32 -10 18.2% 3 -6.1% 89 -0.6% 76
43 Arkansas 3-3 9.8% 30 -13 7.4% 33 5.5% 46 -3.2% 109
44 Florida 3-2 9.1% 50 6 2.4% 52 2.5% 54 4.2% 9
45 East Carolina 5-1 9.0% 44 -1 12.6% 14 -0.5% 66 -3.2% 110
46 Maryland 4-2 8.2% 53 7 -3.7% 81 5.3% 48 6.5% 2
47 Boise State 4-2 8.1% 28 -19 2.3% 54 7.9% 34 -2.2% 96
48 Missouri 4-2 8.1% 33 -15 -8.5% 104 15.9% 10 0.7% 55
49 Washington 5-1 8.0% 58 9 -2.1% 75 9.5% 28 0.6% 56
50 West Virginia 4-2 7.5% 35 -15 9.1% 26 -1.6% 74 0.1% 61
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
51 Wisconsin 4-2 6.4% 43 -8 2.2% 55 6.6% 38 -2.4% 97
52 Iowa 5-1 5.2% 54 2 -3.8% 84 11.5% 17 -2.4% 98
53 Michigan 3-4 4.9% 55 2 0.2% 61 5.6% 42 -0.8% 82
54 Northwestern 3-3 4.9% 45 -9 2.3% 53 5.2% 49 -2.6% 100
55 Memphis 3-3 4.4% 47 -8 -3.3% 80 3.5% 51 4.2% 8
56 Navy 3-4 3.8% 52 -4 11.0% 21 -4.5% 83 -2.7% 104
57 Air Force 4-2 3.6% 59 2 -4.9% 90 6.4% 39 2.1% 30
58 Washington State 2-5 3.2% 36 -22 16.9% 5 -6.7% 94 -7.0% 126
59 Kentucky 5-1 3.0% 60 1 -2.9% 79 3.4% 52 2.6% 19
60 Central Florida 3-2 2.3% 64 4 2.8% 51 -0.4% 65 -0.1% 65
61 Utah State 4-2 2.0% 69 8 -1.9% 73 8.1% 32 -4.2% 119
62 Oregon State 4-1 1.9% 57 -5 3.9% 45 -1.6% 73 -0.3% 70
63 Nevada 3-3 1.2% 56 -7 3.5% 48 -2.1% 75 -0.2% 69
64 Iowa State 2-4 0.7% 72 8 6.4% 35 -6.7% 93 1.0% 49
65 UAB 4-2 0.3% 81 16 0.4% 60 -1.5% 71 1.4% 41
66 Texas 2-4 -1.0% 61 -5 -4.3% 87 8.8% 29 -5.5% 124
67 Georgia Southern 5-2 -1.7% 65 -2 3.4% 50 -5.0% 87 -0.1% 66
68 Colorado 2-4 -1.8% 67 -1 3.9% 44 -4.1% 81 -1.6% 91
69 Arkansas State 4-2 -2.1% 86 17 -0.1% 64 0.6% 61 -2.5% 99
70 Purdue 3-4 -2.2% 84 14 0.1% 62 -3.7% 78 1.4% 39
71 N.C. State 4-3 -2.6% 66 -5 0.8% 59 -4.7% 85 1.2% 45
72 Western Kentucky 2-3 -3.2% 63 -9 8.2% 30 -7.6% 95 -3.8% 115
73 UTSA 2-4 -3.6% 77 4 -5.2% 91 -1.2% 68 2.8% 18
74 Texas Tech 2-4 -3.9% 82 8 6.0% 37 -10.5% 101 0.7% 54
75 Western Michigan 3-3 -3.9% 75 0 -0.6% 69 1.3% 56 -4.6% 123
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
76 Florida International 3-4 -5.0% 88 12 -13.2% 114 9.8% 26 -1.5% 90
77 Akron 4-2 -5.2% 78 1 -5.8% 92 -1.6% 72 2.3% 24
78 Toledo 4-3 -5.3% 73 -5 10.5% 25 -16.1% 120 0.3% 60
79 North Carolina 2-4 -6.4% 79 0 5.7% 38 -9.1% 97 -2.9% 108
80 Syracuse 2-4 -6.8% 70 -10 -2.8% 78 -3.6% 77 -0.4% 72
81 Hawaii 2-4 -6.8% 91 10 -13.2% 115 4.1% 50 2.3% 22
82 Louisiana Tech 3-3 -7.9% 74 -8 -7.5% 100 -0.3% 64 -0.2% 68
83 Middle Tennessee 4-3 -8.4% 90 7 -4.8% 89 -5.0% 86 1.4% 42
84 Houston 3-3 -8.4% 87 3 -13.7% 116 6.2% 41 -0.9% 83
85 Indiana 3-3 -8.6% 68 -17 5.4% 41 -15.3% 118 1.3% 43
86 Illinois 3-4 -8.7% 85 -1 0.9% 58 -10.6% 102 1.0% 48
87 Wake Forest 1-4 -10.4% 97 10 -19.4% 125 5.5% 44 3.4% 14
88 Cincinnati 2-3 -10.4% 80 -8 3.4% 49 -13.1% 115 -0.7% 79
89 Temple 4-1 -12.2% 71 -18 -4.4% 88 -6.2% 90 -1.7% 92
90 San Diego State 3-3 -12.6% 93 3 -11.2% 111 -4.4% 82 3.0% 16
91 Rice 3-3 -12.7% 92 1 5.7% 39 -16.4% 122 -2.0% 95
92 New Mexico 2-4 -13.8% 96 4 -0.3% 67 -12.0% 110 -1.5% 88
93 Central Michigan 4-3 -13.9% 94 1 -4.3% 86 -6.2% 91 -3.4% 112
94 South Alabama 3-2 -13.9% 83 -11 -14.7% 120 1.2% 57 -0.4% 73
95 Miami (Ohio) 1-6 -14.8% 103 8 -9.6% 108 -3.9% 79 -1.2% 87
96 Northern Illinois 3-2 -15.7% 76 -20 -3.7% 82 -11.9% 109 -0.1% 67
97 San Jose State 2-3 -16.3% 89 -8 -12.0% 113 0.3% 62 -4.6% 122
98 Old Dominion 3-4 -16.7% 115 17 3.7% 46 -16.5% 123 -3.9% 116
99 Kansas 2-4 -16.9% 105 6 -15.5% 121 5.4% 47 -6.9% 125
100 Florida Atlantic 2-4 -17.5% 104 4 -6.9% 97 -12.8% 112 2.2% 29
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
101 Ball State 1-5 -17.9% 102 1 -6.7% 94 -13.0% 114 1.8% 34
102 Connecticut 1-5 -17.9% 106 4 -19.7% 126 0.8% 60 1.0% 50
103 Tulane 2-4 -18.2% 95 -8 -4.1% 85 -4.6% 84 -9.4% 127
104 Massachusetts 1-6 -18.9% 112 8 -1.9% 74 -14.1% 116 -2.9% 107
105 Tulsa 1-5 -19.7% 116 11 -7.8% 102 -11.6% 106 -0.3% 71
106 Texas State 3-2 -19.9% 110 4 -9.1% 105 -8.1% 96 -2.8% 105
107 Wyoming 3-3 -20.4% 107 0 -7.6% 101 -9.1% 98 -3.6% 114
108 Georgia State 1-5 -20.6% 113 5 -0.6% 68 -18.9% 124 -1.1% 85
109 Fresno State 3-4 -20.9% 101 -8 -10.2% 110 -6.6% 92 -4.1% 118
110 UL-Lafayette 2-3 -21.1% 108 -2 -6.8% 95 -16.1% 121 1.8% 35
111 Vanderbilt 2-5 -21.2% 98 -13 -16.8% 122 -5.9% 88 1.5% 38
112 UTEP 3-3 -21.7% 117 5 -8.0% 103 -9.6% 100 -4.0% 117
113 Idaho 0-6 -22.0% 120 7 -2.5% 77 -19.5% 125 0.0% 63
114 Army 2-4 -22.0% 99 -15 -9.7% 109 -11.2% 105 -1.1% 86
115 Buffalo 3-4 -22.5% 100 -15 -0.1% 65 -19.7% 126 -2.6% 101
116 UL-Monroe 3-3 -23.0% 123 7 -17.4% 123 -1.4% 69 -4.2% 120
117 South Florida 2-4 -23.3% 119 2 -9.6% 107 -11.7% 108 -2.0% 94
118 Bowling Green 5-2 -23.5% 109 -9 -11.7% 112 -13.0% 113 1.3% 44
119 New Mexico State 2-5 -24.0% 118 -1 -7.0% 98 -14.3% 117 -2.8% 106
120 Southern Miss 2-4 -25.5% 122 2 -13.7% 117 -10.8% 103 -1.0% 84
121 Kent State 0-6 -26.2% 114 -7 -14.3% 119 -9.2% 99 -2.7% 103
122 Troy 1-5 -26.5% 126 4 -7.3% 99 -15.6% 119 -3.6% 113
123 Ohio 3-4 -27.2% 111 -12 -14.2% 118 -12.2% 111 -0.8% 81
124 North Texas 2-4 -28.4% 124 0 -18.7% 124 -10.8% 104 1.1% 46
125 UNLV 2-5 -28.6% 121 -4 -6.8% 96 -22.7% 128 0.9% 51
126 Eastern Michigan 2-4 -31.1% 128 2 -23.8% 128 -2.8% 76 -4.5% 121
127 SMU 0-5 -32.3% 125 -2 -22.7% 127 -11.7% 107 2.1% 31
128 Appalachian State 1-5 -39.4% 127 -1 -9.4% 106 -20.5% 127 -9.5% 128