Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 12/6/14

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
1 Alabama 12-1 38.4% 1 0 19.8% 3 19.7% 2 -1.1% 91
2 Ohio State 12-1 36.5% 3 1 18.8% 4 15.4% 7 2.3% 20
3 Oregon 12-1 35.6% 2 -1 19.9% 2 12.6% 13 3.1% 12
4 Ole Miss 9-3 29.3% 5 1 9.2% 21 18.8% 3 1.3% 39
5 TCU 11-1 28.7% 4 -1 9.6% 20 15.9% 6 3.3% 10
6 Mississippi State 10-2 27.8% 6 0 12.2% 14 14.8% 9 0.8% 48
7 Georgia 9-3 27.6% 7 0 14.4% 8 10.0% 22 3.2% 11
8 Florida State 13-0 27.5% 8 0 16.3% 6 10.2% 20 1.0% 43
9 Baylor 11-1 27.0% 11 2 13.7% 11 11.7% 16 1.6% 33
10 Georgia Tech 10-3 25.8% 12 2 22.8% 1 0.9% 58 2.2% 23
11 Michigan State 10-2 23.6% 15 4 11.1% 15 9.7% 24 2.8% 14
12 Auburn 8-4 23.5% 9 -3 18.0% 5 6.1% 38 -0.6% 79
13 Oklahoma 8-4 22.3% 10 -3 13.8% 10 6.3% 36 2.2% 24
14 Clemson 9-3 21.1% 17 3 -0.1% 58 23.4% 1 -2.2% 107
15 Marshall 12-1 20.8% 19 4 8.2% 27 10.5% 17 2.1% 25
16 Louisville 9-3 19.9% 16 0 4.8% 42 16.1% 5 -0.9% 88
17 Wisconsin 10-3 19.8% 13 -4 10.0% 18 10.5% 18 -0.7% 80
18 LSU 8-4 19.4% 14 -4 3.0% 48 14.0% 11 2.4% 19
19 UCLA 9-3 18.8% 20 1 15.0% 7 3.0% 49 0.8% 49
20 Arkansas 6-6 18.6% 21 1 8.9% 23 10.3% 19 -0.7% 81
21 Kansas State 9-3 17.5% 18 -3 10.5% 16 2.1% 51 4.9% 4
22 USC 8-4 16.9% 22 0 7.9% 28 8.0% 28 1.0% 44
23 Stanford 7-5 16.9% 27 4 2.7% 50 15.0% 8 -0.9% 86
24 Miami 6-6 16.2% 24 0 10.1% 17 7.0% 34 -0.9% 87
25 Boise State 11-2 15.9% 26 1 7.3% 31 9.1% 26 -0.4% 74
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
26 Arizona State 9-3 15.7% 23 -3 6.6% 35 7.9% 29 1.2% 41
27 Nebraska 9-3 15.1% 25 -2 6.0% 39 5.4% 41 3.7% 7
28 Duke 9-3 13.7% 29 1 3.1% 47 4.5% 44 6.1% 1
29 Boston College 7-5 13.7% 32 3 9.2% 22 4.4% 45 0.1% 65
30 Colorado State 10-2 13.5% 33 3 9.9% 19 1.3% 57 2.2% 22
31 Missouri 10-3 13.2% 31 0 2.1% 52 10.1% 21 0.9% 45
32 Virginia Tech 6-6 12.7% 35 3 -5.4% 91 18.1% 4 0.0% 67
33 Arizona 10-3 12.7% 28 -5 6.9% 33 6.2% 37 -0.5% 75
34 West Virginia 7-5 12.6% 30 -4 2.8% 49 9.4% 25 0.3% 59
35 Minnesota 8-4 12.1% 36 1 3.8% 44 5.0% 42 3.3% 9
36 Notre Dame 7-5 11.0% 34 -2 7.2% 32 2.9% 50 0.9% 46
37 Virginia 5-7 10.7% 38 1 -1.4% 66 11.9% 15 0.2% 63
38 Utah 8-4 10.2% 37 -1 -3.4% 76 8.8% 27 4.8% 5
39 Pittsburgh 6-6 9.8% 40 1 12.9% 13 -3.4% 73 0.3% 60
40 Memphis 9-3 9.3% 41 1 -2.2% 71 5.6% 40 5.9% 2
41 Florida 6-5 9.3% 39 -2 -5.9% 97 12.9% 12 2.2% 21
42 BYU 8-4 8.3% 43 1 6.5% 36 0.6% 59 1.1% 42
43 Tennessee 6-6 7.5% 42 -1 -2.0% 69 7.6% 31 2.0% 27
44 Air Force 9-3 6.4% 45 1 -3.8% 79 7.4% 32 2.8% 13
45 Maryland 7-5 6.3% 44 -1 1.6% 54 0.2% 61 4.5% 6
46 Cincinnati 9-3 5.6% 54 8 8.4% 25 -5.4% 88 2.6% 17
47 Western Michigan 8-4 5.5% 47 0 3.4% 46 2.0% 52 0.2% 64
48 Louisiana Tech 8-5 5.4% 55 7 -5.0% 88 9.8% 23 0.6% 56
49 N.C. State 7-5 5.2% 49 0 5.8% 40 -2.2% 70 1.7% 31
50 Navy 6-5 5.1% 46 -4 13.5% 12 -7.1% 99 -1.3% 93
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
51 Washington 8-5 5.0% 51 0 -5.4% 92 7.7% 30 2.7% 15
52 Central Florida 9-3 3.9% 57 5 -1.9% 68 6.3% 35 -0.5% 76
53 Texas A&M 7-5 3.8% 48 -5 7.5% 30 -5.4% 90 1.7% 32
54 Penn State 6-6 3.6% 50 -4 -7.9% 104 14.2% 10 -2.7% 112
55 Iowa 7-5 3.4% 53 -2 0.7% 56 4.1% 47 -1.4% 95
56 South Carolina 6-6 3.0% 52 -4 14.2% 9 -12.5% 117 1.3% 38
57 Texas 6-6 3.0% 56 -1 -5.7% 94 11.9% 14 -3.3% 117
58 East Carolina 8-4 2.7% 62 4 6.3% 37 -0.5% 63 -3.1% 114
59 Utah State 9-4 1.8% 60 1 -4.2% 81 7.2% 33 -1.2% 92
60 Michigan 5-7 1.6% 58 -2 -3.1% 72 4.7% 43 0.0% 68
61 California 5-7 0.8% 59 -2 6.7% 34 -5.6% 91 -0.2% 71
62 Georgia Southern 9-3 0.4% 61 -1 4.5% 43 -3.6% 74 -0.6% 78
63 Toledo 8-4 -0.6% 64 1 6.1% 38 -7.3% 100 0.6% 54
64 Nevada 7-5 -1.8% 63 -1 1.8% 53 -4.9% 84 1.4% 37
65 Western Kentucky 7-5 -2.3% 71 6 8.7% 24 -7.7% 102 -3.3% 118
66 San Diego State 7-5 -2.5% 70 4 -4.8% 86 0.6% 60 1.7% 30
67 Temple 6-6 -2.7% 66 -1 -10.7% 112 6.0% 39 1.9% 28
68 Oklahoma State 6-6 -2.8% 75 7 -3.4% 77 -2.8% 71 3.3% 8
69 UAB 6-6 -3.1% 72 3 -4.3% 82 -4.3% 79 5.5% 3
70 Northwestern 5-7 -3.3% 65 -5 -4.9% 87 4.2% 46 -2.6% 111
71 Oregon State 5-7 -3.8% 69 -2 1.4% 55 -5.0% 87 -0.1% 69
72 Northern Illinois 11-2 -3.8% 76 4 -0.3% 61 -5.0% 85 1.5% 35
73 Rutgers 7-5 -4.4% 67 -6 -0.3% 60 -4.2% 78 0.1% 66
74 North Carolina 6-6 -4.5% 73 -1 7.7% 29 -9.9% 108 -2.4% 110
75 Arkansas State 7-5 -5.2% 68 -7 -0.5% 62 -4.3% 80 -0.3% 72
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
76 Texas Tech 4-8 -5.4% 77 1 5.2% 41 -9.9% 109 -0.7% 84
77 Central Michigan 7-5 -6.0% 78 1 -0.8% 63 -1.9% 67 -3.3% 119
78 Illinois 6-6 -6.6% 79 1 -1.8% 67 -5.4% 89 0.5% 57
79 Houston 7-5 -7.1% 80 1 -3.2% 74 -2.1% 69 -1.8% 101
80 Purdue 3-9 -7.4% 74 -6 -5.8% 95 -1.1% 65 -0.4% 73
81 Colorado 2-10 -7.8% 81 0 -0.1% 59 -6.9% 97 -0.8% 85
82 Syracuse 3-9 -8.2% 82 0 -9.4% 108 3.4% 48 -2.2% 105
83 Kentucky 5-7 -8.9% 83 0 -2.1% 70 -4.6% 81 -2.2% 108
84 Middle Tennessee 6-6 -9.0% 84 0 -4.7% 84 -4.8% 83 0.5% 58
85 Indiana 4-8 -9.5% 85 0 -5.3% 89 -3.3% 72 -0.9% 89
86 UL-Lafayette 8-4 -9.8% 88 2 0.2% 57 -10.8% 111 0.8% 47
87 Wake Forest 2-9 -10.4% 86 -1 -14.3% 123 1.5% 55 2.5% 18
88 New Mexico 4-8 -11.5% 90 2 2.5% 51 -13.3% 121 -0.7% 83
89 Washington State 3-9 -11.5% 89 0 3.7% 45 -6.8% 96 -8.4% 127
90 Texas State 7-5 -11.7% 92 2 -7.3% 103 -6.4% 94 2.0% 26
91 Iowa State 2-10 -11.8% 87 -4 -0.8% 64 -11.3% 113 0.3% 61
92 Ball State 5-7 -12.2% 91 -1 -6.8% 100 -7.0% 98 1.6% 34
93 South Alabama 6-6 -12.3% 93 0 -14.3% 124 1.9% 53 0.2% 62
94 UTEP 7-5 -12.5% 96 2 -6.8% 99 -3.7% 75 -2.1% 103
95 Rice 7-5 -13.8% 94 -1 -0.8% 65 -11.7% 115 -1.3% 94
96 Akron 5-6 -14.4% 95 -1 -13.2% 119 -1.9% 68 0.7% 51
97 Florida Atlantic 3-9 -14.5% 97 0 -6.2% 98 -9.0% 105 0.7% 50
98 Florida International 4-8 -15.0% 98 0 -15.6% 125 1.6% 54 -1.0% 90
99 UL-Monroe 4-8 -15.1% 101 2 -13.6% 121 -0.8% 64 -0.7% 82
100 UTSA 4-8 -15.3% 99 -1 -15.6% 126 -1.5% 66 1.8% 29
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
101 Fresno State 6-7 -15.9% 108 7 -7.9% 105 -8.6% 103 0.6% 53
102 Buffalo 5-6 -16.1% 107 5 -3.3% 75 -9.6% 107 -3.2% 116
103 Hawaii 4-9 -16.1% 102 -1 -11.5% 114 -6.1% 93 1.4% 36
104 Bowling Green 7-6 -16.7% 100 -4 -7.2% 102 -10.1% 110 0.6% 55
105 Tulane 3-9 -17.0% 103 -2 -10.7% 111 1.4% 56 -7.8% 126
106 Old Dominion 6-6 -17.2% 110 4 8.2% 26 -19.2% 128 -6.1% 122
107 Kansas 3-9 -17.4% 105 -2 -12.0% 117 0.2% 62 -5.6% 121
108 Kent State 1-9 -18.3% 114 6 -11.7% 115 -5.0% 86 -1.6% 99
109 Miami (Ohio) 2-10 -18.3% 113 4 -5.4% 90 -11.4% 114 -1.5% 97
110 Idaho 1-10 -18.3% 106 -4 -4.8% 85 -16.2% 126 2.6% 16
111 Vanderbilt 3-9 -18.4% 109 -2 -13.5% 120 -4.7% 82 -0.2% 70
112 Ohio 6-6 -18.8% 112 0 -11.3% 113 -6.0% 92 -1.5% 96
113 Connecticut 2-10 -19.1% 104 -9 -13.7% 122 -3.7% 76 -1.7% 100
114 Army 4-7 -19.2% 115 1 -3.7% 78 -13.4% 122 -2.1% 104
115 Massachusetts 3-9 -19.8% 116 1 -4.1% 80 -12.5% 116 -3.2% 115
116 Appalachian State 7-5 -19.9% 120 4 -3.2% 73 -6.8% 95 -9.9% 128
117 Tulsa 2-10 -20.1% 117 0 -5.7% 93 -13.9% 123 -0.5% 77
118 San Jose State 3-9 -20.3% 111 -7 -9.3% 107 -4.0% 77 -7.0% 124
119 Wyoming 4-8 -20.7% 118 -1 -4.6% 83 -8.8% 104 -7.3% 125
120 UNLV 2-11 -22.2% 122 2 -7.0% 101 -15.8% 125 0.6% 52
121 Southern Miss 3-9 -22.2% 119 -2 -10.5% 110 -9.4% 106 -2.3% 109
122 South Florida 4-8 -22.7% 121 -1 -13.0% 118 -7.5% 101 -2.2% 106
123 North Texas 4-8 -23.4% 123 0 -11.8% 116 -12.8% 118 1.2% 40
124 Troy 3-9 -26.6% 126 2 -10.4% 109 -14.6% 124 -1.6% 98
125 Georgia State 1-11 -26.9% 125 0 -5.8% 96 -18.0% 127 -3.1% 113
126 New Mexico State 2-10 -27.7% 124 -2 -8.2% 106 -12.8% 119 -6.8% 123
127 SMU 1-11 -32.0% 127 0 -19.2% 128 -10.9% 112 -1.9% 102
128 Eastern Michigan 2-10 -36.8% 128 0 -18.7% 127 -13.0% 120 -5.1% 120