Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

printable version

Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

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2012 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/7/13

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Alabama 13-1 +50.6% +21.1% 2 +27.8% 1 +1.7% 28 312.3 1 0.324 1
2 Oregon 12-1 +38.3% +15.9% 5 +20.3% 4 +2.2% 18 270.5 2 0.319 2
3 Texas A&M 11-2 +35.1% +23.1% 1 +13.0% 15 -1.0% 89 263.6 3 0.295 3
4 Florida 11-2 +34.2% +6.5% 32 +23.6% 2 +4.1% 3 258.5 5 0.259 5
5 Florida State 12-2 +29.5% +8.4% 23 +19.5% 5 +1.6% 31 263.4 4 0.195 13
6 Georgia 12-2 +29.1% +16.1% 4 +12.6% 18 +0.4% 53 254.6 6 0.227 8
7 Notre Dame 12-1 +27.4% +13.9% 9 +14.6% 13 -1.1% 90 253.3 7 0.215 10
8 Oklahoma 10-3 +27.0% +15.0% 6 +10.6% 23 +1.4% 34 246.3 9 0.243 6
9 Kansas State 11-2 +26.9% +9.4% 19 +12.9% 16 +4.6% 1 232.5 24 0.279 4
10 LSU 10-3 +25.9% +5.0% 41 +18.2% 6 +2.8% 9 246.0 10 0.199 12
11 Stanford 12-2 +25.6% +6.0% 36 +17.1% 8 +2.5% 12 238.0 18 0.234 7
12 Oklahoma State 8-5 +25.3% +12.8% 12 +10.0% 24 +2.5% 10 241.3 15 0.185 14
13 South Carolina 11-2 +23.7% +7.2% 29 +17.3% 7 -0.8% 86 242.2 12 0.215 11
14 Ohio State 12-0 +22.9% +12.4% 13 +11.3% 20 -0.7% 82 234.3 23 0.216 9
15 Michigan State 7-6 +20.7% -0.7% 61 +20.8% 3 +0.6% 50 241.3 16 0.142 23
16 Wisconsin 8-6 +20.4% +7.4% 28 +13.3% 14 -0.3% 72 237.3 20 0.183 15
17 Utah State 11-2 +20.1% +3.3% 48 +15.5% 9 +1.3% 38 247.2 8 0.139 24
18 Oregon State 9-4 +20.0% +10.1% 17 +9.6% 25 +0.3% 54 234.3 22 0.182 16
19 Nebraska 10-4 +19.9% +14.2% 8 +7.7% 30 -2.0% 103 240.6 17 0.147 19
20 Michigan 8-5 +19.3% +10.2% 16 +8.6% 28 +0.6% 49 237.7 19 0.133 26
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
21 Boise State 11-2 +18.4% +5.1% 40 +12.8% 17 +0.4% 52 242.0 13 0.121 32
22 Clemson 11-2 +18.4% +14.4% 7 +2.2% 51 +1.8% 26 235.9 21 0.135 25
23 BYU 8-5 +17.5% +2.6% 52 +15.2% 10 -0.2% 71 244.5 11 0.125 29
24 Texas 9-4 +15.6% +9.5% 18 +4.5% 40 +1.6% 30 220.6 36 0.173 17
25 Penn State 8-4 +15.0% +3.8% 47 +12.5% 19 -1.4% 94 230.9 25 0.121 31
26 Cincinnati 10-3 +14.4% +6.2% 35 +8.2% 29 +0.0% 60 213.4 49 0.146 20
27 USC 7-6 +14.2% +6.4% 33 +6.0% 33 +1.8% 23 227.2 28 0.122 30
28 Louisville 11-2 +13.7% +13.8% 10 +2.9% 48 -3.0% 115 219.2 39 0.126 28
29 Northwestern 10-3 +12.9% +5.8% 37 +3.4% 46 +3.7% 4 215.1 46 0.143 21
30 Baylor 8-5 +12.5% +19.6% 3 -5.1% 79 -2.0% 102 221.8 33 0.172 18
31 TCU 7-6 +12.3% -2.6% 70 +14.6% 12 +0.3% 55 222.1 32 0.142 22
32 San Jose State 11-2 +12.1% +7.4% 26 +4.0% 44 +0.8% 47 229.6 26 0.087 38
33 Northern Illinois 12-2 +11.9% +5.3% 38 +4.6% 39 +2.0% 19 223.6 31 0.092 36
34 Fresno State 9-4 +11.6% +0.8% 58 +11.2% 21 -0.5% 80 242.0 14 0.043 54
35 UCLA 9-5 +11.2% +5.2% 39 +6.3% 32 -0.3% 73 217.3 41 0.116 33
36 Central Florida 10-4 +10.6% +4.2% 45 +4.2% 42 +2.2% 16 219.4 38 0.093 35
37 Syracuse 8-5 +10.2% +9.0% 21 +2.1% 52 -0.8% 87 212.2 51 0.132 27
38 Arizona 8-5 +9.8% +13.1% 11 -1.9% 68 -1.3% 93 220.9 35 0.070 41
39 Rutgers 9-4 +9.6% -5.4% 84 +15.1% 11 -0.1% 67 215.3 45 0.100 34
40 Ole Miss 7-6 +9.6% +6.3% 34 +5.8% 34 -2.5% 111 229.2 27 0.068 42
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
41 Arizona State 8-5 +9.0% +2.7% 51 +6.5% 31 -0.1% 66 221.3 34 0.090 37
42 Tulsa 11-3 +8.7% +0.1% 59 +8.9% 27 -0.3% 75 219.4 37 0.080 40
43 Virginia Tech 7-6 +7.6% -3.2% 75 +10.8% 22 0.0% 62 216.3 43 0.048 49
44 San Diego State 9-4 +7.5% +1.2% 56 +5.2% 36 +1.1% 41 217.4 40 0.052 48
45 Texas Tech 8-5 +6.9% +7.9% 25 -1.1% 64 +0.1% 58 214.5 48 0.058 45
46 North Carolina 8-4 +6.8% +9.4% 20 -3.5% 74 +0.9% 44 211.2 52 0.053 47
47 West Virginia 7-6 +6.6% +11.0% 15 -2.4% 69 -2.1% 105 217.2 42 0.046 52
48 Kent State 11-3 +6.2% -2.4% 68 +4.2% 43 +4.3% 2 209.5 55 0.046 53
49 Georgia Tech 7-7 +6.1% +8.6% 22 +0.1% 58 -2.6% 112 225.2 29 0.047 50
50 Vanderbilt 9-4 +6.1% -2.5% 69 +5.2% 35 +3.4% 6 209.4 56 0.065 43
51 Pittsburgh 6-7 +6.0% +1.8% 54 +3.7% 45 +0.5% 51 206.8 58 0.065 44
52 Louisiana Tech 9-3 +5.4% +11.9% 14 -9.6% 100 +3.1% 7 216.1 44 0.054 46
53 Arkansas State 10-3 +5.1% +8.3% 24 +0.7% 56 -4.0% 120 224.7 30 0.046 51
54 Toledo 9-4 +2.3% +1.3% 55 -0.8% 62 +1.8% 25 201.2 65 0.020 56
55 Iowa State 6-7 +2.2% -2.0% 65 +3.0% 47 +1.2% 40 202.4 63 0.082 39
56 Washington 7-6 +1.8% -1.3% 63 +4.8% 37 -1.7% 98 206.2 59 0.029 55
57 Tennessee 5-7 +0.8% +7.4% 27 -6.4% 85 -0.1% 65 212.3 50 0.001 61
58 Missouri 5-7 +0.7% -5.7% 85 +4.4% 41 +1.9% 20 208.8 57 0.012 57
59 UL-Lafayette 9-4 +0.4% +4.9% 44 -4.6% 78 +0.2% 56 210.3 54 -0.052 75
60 Arkansas 4-8 +0.4% +4.9% 43 -2.7% 72 -1.7% 97 215.0 47 -0.032 67
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
61 Connecticut 5-7 0.0% -10.1% 107 +9.2% 26 +0.9% 45 199.8 68 -0.017 64
62 Mississippi State 8-5 -0.1% -2.9% 72 +1.3% 54 +1.5% 32 210.4 53 -0.012 62
63 N.C. State 7-6 -0.2% -3.0% 74 +2.9% 49 -0.1% 64 204.1 62 0.009 59
64 Ball State 9-4 -0.5% +3.2% 49 -7.4% 87 +3.6% 5 204.7 61 -0.033 68
65 Miami 7-5 -1.3% +4.0% 46 -7.5% 88 +2.2% 17 205.7 60 0.004 60
66 Utah 5-7 -3.8% -6.1% 89 +0.7% 57 +1.7% 27 193.4 78 0.011 58
67 Bowling Green 8-5 -4.2% -7.1% 100 +4.6% 38 -1.6% 95 202.3 64 -0.041 72
68 Ohio 9-4 -4.5% -2.3% 67 -3.6% 75 +1.3% 35 191.9 80 -0.034 70
69 Western Kentucky 7-6 -4.7% -4.1% 78 -0.3% 61 -0.2% 70 198.9 71 -0.030 66
70 SMU 7-6 -4.7% -6.8% 96 +0.8% 55 +1.2% 39 200.5 67 -0.056 76
71 Nevada 7-6 -5.3% +7.1% 30 -12.5% 111 +0.1% 59 199.4 69 -0.024 65
72 Iowa 4-8 -6.0% -6.5% 94 -0.9% 63 +1.5% 33 188.8 86 -0.013 63
73 South Florida 3-9 -6.2% -1.6% 64 -3.3% 73 -1.3% 92 197.0 75 -0.047 73
74 Indiana 4-8 -6.5% +4.9% 42 -12.2% 110 +0.9% 46 189.0 85 -0.036 71
75 UL-Monroe 8-5 -6.6% +1.1% 57 -7.3% 86 -0.4% 78 193.4 79 -0.033 69
76 Purdue 6-7 -6.9% -6.4% 92 -0.2% 60 -0.3% 74 197.4 74 -0.106 89
77 California 3-9 -7.0% -4.9% 81 -1.7% 67 -0.3% 76 201.0 66 -0.066 79
78 Troy 5-7 -7.4% +1.8% 53 -8.7% 93 -0.6% 81 197.5 73 -0.063 77
79 Minnesota 6-7 -7.5% -6.4% 93 -0.1% 59 -1.0% 88 191.8 81 -0.051 74
80 Houston 5-7 -8.2% -5.1% 83 -1.3% 66 -1.7% 96 199.1 70 -0.093 84
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
81 Duke 6-7 -8.3% +3.0% 50 -13.2% 116 +1.9% 22 190.3 82 -0.100 87
82 Marshall 5-7 -8.7% +6.9% 31 -13.3% 117 -2.3% 110 198.1 72 -0.106 90
83 Virginia 4-8 -8.8% -6.1% 88 +2.0% 53 -4.8% 123 195.1 76 -0.065 78
84 Temple 4-7 -10.0% -3.4% 76 -9.0% 96 +2.4% 13 183.7 92 -0.091 83
85 Western Michigan 4-8 -10.2% -2.1% 66 -5.8% 82 -2.2% 107 187.8 87 -0.086 82
86 Maryland 4-8 -10.9% -13.2% 116 +2.3% 50 0.0% 61 180.4 101 -0.079 81
87 Rice 7-6 -10.9% -5.8% 86 -7.7% 89 +2.5% 11 189.2 84 -0.074 80
88 Boston College 2-10 -11.1% -6.8% 97 -5.5% 81 +1.3% 36 183.7 93 -0.099 86
89 Florida International 3-9 -11.7% -7.0% 99 -2.4% 70 -2.2% 107 189.9 83 -0.097 85
90 East Carolina 8-5 -11.8% -3.4% 77 -8.4% 91 -0.1% 63 194.9 77 -0.160 107
91 UAB 3-9 -15.0% -6.6% 95 -9.7% 101 +1.3% 37 183.3 95 -0.165 113
92 Buffalo 4-8 -15.3% -10.2% 108 -1.2% 65 -3.9% 119 186.1 89 -0.114 91
93 UTEP 3-9 -15.6% -8.7% 106 -8.7% 94 +1.8% 24 177.8 105 -0.105 88
94 Memphis 4-8 -15.7% -12.6% 115 -5.3% 80 +2.3% 15 176.6 108 -0.125 95
95 Central Michigan 7-6 -15.7% -2.9% 73 -12.1% 109 -0.7% 84 181.1 100 -0.143 100
96 Middle Tennessee 9-3 -16.0% -6.3% 90 -12.7% 114 +3.0% 8 185.0 90 -0.119 92
97 Navy 8-5 -16.5% -5.9% 87 -11.6% 107 +1.0% 43 187.1 88 -0.153 103
98 Washington State 3-9 -16.6% -10.6% 109 -3.9% 76 -2.1% 106 180.0 102 -0.134 97
99 Texas State 4-8 -16.8% -4.5% 80 -14.6% 119 +2.3% 14 183.6 94 -0.154 104
100 Wyoming 4-8 -17.1% -1.0% 62 -12.5% 112 -3.6% 118 182.7 97 -0.122 94
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Air Force 6-7 -17.4% -5.0% 82 -9.6% 99 -2.8% 114 182.9 96 -0.128 96
102 Miami (Ohio) 4-8 -17.6% -2.9% 71 -12.7% 115 -2.0% 104 181.6 99 -0.163 112
103 UNLV 2-11 -17.7% -7.7% 101 -9.4% 98 -0.7% 83 177.0 106 -0.156 106
104 Kansas 1-11 -18.0% -7.8% 103 -6.0% 84 -4.2% 121 179.6 103 -0.121 93
105 Auburn 3-9 -18.6% -11.5% 111 -9.0% 95 +1.9% 21 184.7 91 -0.192 116
106 Army 2-10 -18.8% -0.5% 60 -17.6% 124 -0.8% 85 177.0 107 -0.161 108
107 Wake Forest 5-7 -19.1% -11.7% 113 -4.2% 77 -3.2% 117 174.9 110 -0.152 102
108 Illinois 2-10 -19.3% -14.2% 117 -2.5% 71 -2.6% 113 174.3 111 -0.162 110
109 Akron 1-11 -20.3% -6.4% 91 -10.7% 105 -3.2% 116 171.1 118 -0.137 98
110 Eastern Michigan 2-10 -20.6% -8.2% 105 -10.2% 103 -2.2% 109 171.3 117 -0.150 101
111 Tulane 2-10 -20.7% -11.6% 112 -9.8% 102 +0.7% 48 173.3 113 -0.197 117
112 Kentucky 2-10 -21.0% -7.9% 104 -12.6% 113 -0.4% 77 182.2 98 -0.163 111
113 North Texas 4-8 -21.5% -7.8% 102 -11.9% 108 -1.9% 101 172.9 114 -0.139 99
114 New Mexico 4-9 -21.7% -4.5% 79 -16.1% 121 -1.1% 91 178.2 104 -0.162 109
115 Florida Atlantic 3-9 -21.8% -11.0% 110 -10.6% 104 -0.2% 69 173.7 112 -0.170 114
116 UTSA 6-4 -22.6% -6.9% 98 -15.8% 120 +0.2% 57 172.0 115 -0.212 118
117 Southern Miss 0-12 -23.4% -12.3% 114 -9.3% 97 -1.9% 100 171.8 116 -0.181 115
118 South Alabama 2-11 -24.3% -16.7% 122 -5.8% 83 -1.8% 99 161.4 121 -0.156 105
119 Colorado State 4-8 -24.7% -14.9% 120 -10.8% 106 +1.0% 42 175.3 109 -0.258 121
120 Idaho 1-11 -25.4% -16.5% 121 -8.7% 92 -0.2% 68 165.4 119 -0.227 119
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
121 Hawaii 3-9 -25.4% -19.2% 124 -7.9% 90 +1.7% 29 163.5 120 -0.239 120
122 Massachusetts 1-11 -33.6% -18.8% 123 -14.4% 118 -0.4% 79 147.6 124 -0.271 123
123 New Mexico State 1-11 -35.6% -14.5% 118 -16.1% 122 -5.0% 124 156.0 122 -0.287 124
124 Colorado 1-11 -36.0% -14.6% 119 -16.7% 123 -4.6% 122 153.6 123 -0.261 122