Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 10/18/14

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
1 Ole Miss 7-0 37.6% 1 0 12.6% 19 22.2% 4 2.7% 22
2 Oklahoma 5-2 32.2% 4 2 18.7% 3 9.0% 29 4.6% 9
3 Alabama 6-1 31.8% 10 7 14.2% 14 19.7% 6 -2.2% 98
4 TCU 5-1 31.2% 5 1 13.6% 17 14.1% 12 3.6% 15
5 Auburn 5-1 29.3% 3 -2 15.5% 7 11.6% 18 2.3% 25
6 Mississippi State 6-0 29.3% 2 -4 11.8% 21 17.1% 7 0.3% 61
7 Oregon 6-1 29.2% 6 -1 20.3% 2 9.8% 25 -0.8% 77
8 Ohio State 5-1 28.4% 16 8 14.3% 12 9.5% 26 4.7% 8
9 Georgia 6-1 27.9% 9 0 16.4% 6 7.0% 33 4.5% 10
10 Florida State 7-0 26.9% 14 4 15.0% 10 11.1% 22 0.9% 48
11 Clemson 5-2 26.0% 11 0 8.0% 27 19.8% 5 -1.8% 96
12 UCLA 5-2 23.5% 15 3 17.5% 4 5.7% 44 0.3% 63
13 Arizona State 5-1 23.1% 27 14 15.5% 8 6.6% 39 1.1% 43
14 Baylor 6-1 23.0% 7 -7 9.2% 26 13.0% 15 0.7% 52
15 Louisville 6-2 22.4% 12 -3 -1.1% 67 22.7% 2 0.8% 50
16 Marshall 7-0 22.0% 20 4 9.4% 25 9.4% 27 3.1% 18
17 Nebraska 6-1 21.7% 22 5 7.1% 33 11.1% 21 3.5% 16
18 Michigan State 6-1 21.6% 19 1 7.3% 32 13.6% 13 0.6% 56
19 Notre Dame 6-1 20.8% 13 -6 7.8% 29 11.2% 20 1.8% 28
20 Virginia Tech 4-3 20.4% 18 -2 -5.2% 87 22.8% 1 2.7% 21
21 USC 5-2 20.2% 17 -4 14.4% 11 6.7% 37 -0.9% 80
22 West Virginia 5-2 20.2% 50 28 13.0% 18 6.9% 36 0.2% 65
23 Kansas State 5-1 19.6% 29 6 6.4% 36 12.3% 16 0.9% 47
24 Duke 6-1 19.2% 31 7 1.0% 59 13.4% 14 4.8% 6
25 Georgia Tech 5-2 17.9% 21 -4 24.6% 1 -10.1% 98 3.4% 17
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
26 Miami 4-3 17.8% 25 -1 13.7% 16 4.2% 47 0.0% 70
27 LSU 6-2 17.1% 35 8 4.6% 42 7.4% 31 5.1% 4
28 Stanford 4-3 16.8% 8 -20 -4.3% 81 22.3% 3 -1.2% 85
29 Arizona 5-1 16.8% 26 -3 11.6% 23 5.8% 43 -0.6% 74
30 Virginia 4-3 16.5% 23 -7 4.0% 46 12.0% 17 0.4% 60
31 Utah 5-1 16.2% 28 -3 -5.0% 84 14.4% 11 6.8% 1
32 Boston College 4-3 16.2% 33 1 5.6% 39 11.1% 23 -0.5% 73
33 Pittsburgh 4-3 16.1% 38 5 13.7% 15 0.8% 64 1.5% 34
34 BYU 4-3 14.5% 34 0 11.7% 22 -0.9% 71 3.7% 14
35 Maryland 5-2 14.2% 46 11 1.5% 55 7.1% 32 5.6% 2
36 Missouri 5-2 13.7% 48 12 -7.3% 98 16.2% 8 4.7% 7
37 Colorado State 6-1 13.6% 37 0 9.7% 24 1.0% 63 2.9% 19
38 Tennessee 3-4 12.7% 32 -6 -2.7% 74 14.7% 10 0.8% 51
39 Minnesota 6-1 11.3% 39 0 -0.1% 63 7.5% 30 3.8% 13
40 East Carolina 5-1 10.7% 45 5 14.2% 13 0.0% 70 -3.6% 114
41 South Carolina 4-3 9.3% 42 1 16.8% 5 -6.8% 89 -0.7% 76
42 Penn State 4-2 8.5% 40 -2 -5.1% 86 15.8% 9 -2.2% 99
43 California 4-3 8.1% 41 -2 4.8% 41 1.4% 58 1.9% 26
44 Oklahoma State 5-2 8.0% 30 -14 -0.6% 65 3.2% 53 5.4% 3
45 Boise State 5-2 7.9% 47 2 3.5% 48 7.0% 35 -2.5% 101
46 Iowa 5-2 6.7% 52 6 -2.6% 73 10.8% 24 -1.4% 88
47 Memphis 3-3 6.2% 55 8 -2.0% 70 3.5% 51 4.8% 5
48 Rutgers 5-2 6.2% 24 -24 6.0% 38 -1.7% 73 1.9% 27
49 Wisconsin 4-2 5.9% 51 2 2.2% 53 6.4% 41 -2.7% 103
50 Arkansas 3-4 5.7% 43 -7 5.1% 40 5.0% 45 -4.4% 119
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
51 Central Florida 4-2 5.0% 60 9 -0.2% 64 4.0% 50 1.1% 41
52 Nevada 4-3 4.4% 63 11 4.6% 43 -1.7% 72 1.5% 36
53 Utah State 4-3 3.8% 61 8 -4.1% 79 11.6% 19 -3.6% 115
54 Air Force 5-2 3.3% 57 3 -5.5% 88 6.5% 40 2.3% 24
55 Michigan 3-4 3.0% 53 -2 -2.5% 72 6.4% 42 -1.0% 82
56 Oregon State 4-2 1.6% 62 6 0.2% 62 1.4% 59 0.0% 67
57 Northwestern 3-4 1.3% 54 -3 1.2% 57 3.2% 52 -3.1% 112
58 Florida 3-3 1.0% 44 -14 -3.6% 77 4.1% 49 0.5% 59
59 Texas A&M 5-3 0.8% 36 -23 6.9% 34 -6.2% 87 0.2% 66
60 N.C. State 4-4 0.4% 71 11 4.1% 44 -4.4% 80 0.7% 53
61 Washington State 2-5 0.0% 58 -3 15.0% 9 -7.1% 90 -7.9% 126
62 Washington 5-2 -0.1% 49 -13 -4.0% 78 2.6% 55 1.4% 38
63 Texas 3-4 -0.1% 66 3 -4.8% 83 9.0% 28 -4.3% 118
64 Georgia Southern 5-2 -0.4% 67 3 3.7% 47 -4.1% 78 -0.1% 71
65 Navy 3-4 -0.4% 56 -9 8.0% 28 -5.4% 83 -3.1% 111
66 Iowa State 2-5 -0.5% 64 -2 6.2% 37 -7.6% 93 0.8% 49
67 Purdue 3-5 -1.2% 70 3 2.2% 54 -4.9% 82 1.5% 33
68 North Carolina 3-4 -1.3% 79 11 7.7% 31 -6.1% 86 -2.8% 107
69 Arkansas State 4-2 -1.6% 69 0 1.1% 58 0.2% 69 -2.9% 108
70 UTSA 2-5 -2.7% 73 3 -7.1% 97 1.6% 57 2.9% 20
71 Texas Tech 3-4 -3.1% 74 3 6.9% 35 -11.1% 105 1.2% 40
72 UAB 4-3 -3.7% 65 -7 -3.2% 76 -2.1% 75 1.6% 32
73 Toledo 4-3 -4.0% 78 5 12.0% 20 -16.3% 122 0.3% 62
74 Western Michigan 4-3 -4.0% 75 1 -1.4% 68 1.3% 60 -3.9% 117
75 Akron 4-3 -5.1% 77 2 -10.1% 109 0.8% 66 4.2% 12
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
76 Kentucky 5-2 -5.3% 59 -17 -5.7% 89 2.0% 56 -1.5% 93
77 Houston 4-3 -5.6% 84 7 -11.1% 111 7.0% 34 -1.5% 94
78 Louisiana Tech 4-3 -5.8% 82 4 -7.6% 100 2.7% 54 -0.9% 79
79 Syracuse 3-4 -6.3% 80 1 -0.7% 66 -4.5% 81 -1.1% 83
80 Colorado 2-5 -7.0% 68 -12 2.3% 51 -7.9% 94 -1.4% 89
81 Middle Tennessee 5-3 -7.2% 83 2 -5.8% 91 -2.9% 77 1.5% 35
82 Florida International 3-5 -7.7% 76 -6 -11.8% 115 6.7% 38 -2.6% 102
83 Indiana 3-4 -7.7% 85 2 4.1% 45 -13.5% 116 1.7% 31
84 Western Kentucky 2-4 -8.1% 72 -12 7.8% 30 -13.0% 110 -2.8% 106
85 Cincinnati 3-3 -8.7% 88 3 1.5% 56 -10.7% 103 0.5% 58
86 San Diego State 4-3 -9.8% 90 4 -6.9% 94 -4.3% 79 1.3% 39
87 New Mexico 2-5 -10.7% 92 5 0.9% 60 -10.3% 100 -1.2% 86
88 Central Michigan 4-4 -10.9% 93 5 -6.0% 92 -2.1% 74 -2.7% 104
89 Hawaii 2-5 -11.4% 81 -8 -14.6% 120 0.7% 67 2.5% 23
90 Illinois 3-4 -11.4% 86 -4 -2.1% 71 -10.4% 102 1.1% 42
91 Wake Forest 1-5 -11.5% 87 -4 -20.1% 126 4.1% 48 4.4% 11
92 Northern Illinois 4-2 -12.4% 96 4 2.2% 52 -15.2% 119 0.6% 57
93 South Alabama 4-2 -13.3% 94 1 -15.3% 121 1.3% 61 0.7% 54
94 Florida Atlantic 3-4 -14.5% 100 6 -5.8% 90 -10.2% 99 1.4% 37
95 Temple 4-2 -14.6% 89 -6 -6.3% 93 -7.6% 92 -0.7% 75
96 San Jose State 3-3 -15.1% 97 1 -11.1% 112 1.2% 62 -5.3% 124
97 Fresno State 3-5 -16.0% 109 12 -8.2% 104 -6.1% 85 -1.7% 95
98 Miami (Ohio) 1-7 -16.3% 95 -3 -5.1% 85 -9.9% 97 -1.3% 87
99 Ball State 2-5 -16.8% 101 2 -7.1% 96 -11.4% 106 1.7% 30
100 Tulane 2-5 -16.8% 103 3 -8.1% 103 0.2% 68 -8.9% 127
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
101 Rice 3-3 -17.0% 91 -10 2.3% 50 -17.0% 125 -2.3% 100
102 Kansas 2-5 -17.1% 99 -3 -14.0% 119 4.2% 46 -7.3% 125
103 UL-Lafayette 3-3 -17.4% 110 7 -4.3% 82 -13.0% 111 0.0% 69
104 Connecticut 1-5 -17.6% 102 -2 -19.5% 125 0.8% 65 1.1% 44
105 Old Dominion 3-4 -17.6% 98 -7 2.9% 49 -16.1% 121 -4.4% 120
106 Georgia State 1-6 -18.1% 108 2 0.4% 61 -17.0% 124 -1.5% 92
107 Massachusetts 2-6 -18.9% 104 -3 -1.9% 69 -14.0% 117 -3.1% 110
108 Wyoming 3-4 -20.4% 107 -1 -7.8% 102 -9.3% 96 -3.3% 113
109 South Florida 3-4 -20.9% 117 8 -9.6% 106 -10.4% 101 -0.9% 81
110 UTEP 3-3 -21.1% 112 2 -7.3% 99 -9.2% 95 -4.6% 121
111 Bowling Green 5-3 -21.3% 118 7 -10.4% 110 -11.9% 108 1.0% 46
112 Idaho 1-6 -21.4% 113 1 -4.2% 80 -17.8% 126 0.7% 55
113 Tulsa 1-6 -21.9% 105 -8 -7.6% 101 -13.4% 115 -0.9% 78
114 Kent State 1-6 -21.9% 121 7 -13.4% 117 -7.4% 91 -1.1% 84
115 Vanderbilt 2-5 -22.1% 111 -4 -17.6% 124 -6.3% 88 1.7% 29
116 Buffalo 3-4 -23.6% 115 -1 -2.7% 75 -17.9% 127 -3.0% 109
117 New Mexico State 2-6 -23.9% 119 2 -8.5% 105 -12.6% 109 -2.8% 105
118 UL-Monroe 3-3 -24.7% 116 -2 -17.4% 123 -2.5% 76 -4.8% 123
119 Southern Miss 3-4 -25.0% 120 1 -11.7% 114 -13.2% 112 0.0% 68
120 Ohio 4-4 -25.3% 123 3 -12.3% 116 -11.5% 107 -1.5% 91
121 Army 2-5 -25.5% 114 -7 -9.8% 107 -14.3% 118 -1.4% 90
122 Texas State 3-3 -26.1% 106 -16 -13.6% 118 -10.7% 104 -1.8% 97
123 UNLV 2-5 -26.4% 125 2 -7.1% 95 -20.3% 128 1.0% 45
124 North Texas 2-5 -28.4% 124 0 -15.3% 122 -13.4% 114 0.3% 64
125 Troy 1-6 -31.0% 122 -3 -11.4% 113 -15.8% 120 -3.8% 116
126 Eastern Michigan 2-5 -32.7% 126 0 -22.3% 127 -5.8% 84 -4.6% 122
127 Appalachian State 2-5 -36.9% 128 1 -9.9% 108 -16.9% 123 -10.1% 128
128 SMU 0-6 -38.0% 127 -1 -24.6% 128 -13.3% 113 -0.1% 72