Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 9/13/14

NOTE: Full F/+ rankings, complete with special teams ratings, will be available seven weeks into the season.

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Florida State 2-0 32.7% 1 0 270.4 1 0.307 2
2 Oregon 3-0 28.5% 2 0 254.4 3 0.314 1
3 Alabama 3-0 27.4% 3 0 263.4 2 0.231 8
4 Stanford 2-1 22.4% 5 1 242.3 8 0.253 4
5 Oklahoma 3-0 22.0% 4 -1 244.9 4 0.226 10
6 Ole Miss 3-0 21.6% 16 10 242.1 9 0.235 7
7 Auburn 2-0 21.5% 7 0 244.2 5 0.218 12
8 Michigan State 1-1 20.8% 11 3 243.1 7 0.210 14
9 Texas A&M 3-0 20.8% 8 -1 240.7 10 0.224 11
10 LSU 3-0 20.2% 9 -1 235.1 14 0.247 5
11 Baylor 3-0 19.3% 13 2 243.8 6 0.171 24
12 Missouri 3-0 19.1% 15 3 230.0 18 0.255 3
13 Georgia 1-1 18.7% 6 -7 232.4 16 0.229 9
14 Oklahoma State 2-1 18.5% 22 8 239.7 12 0.180 19
15 Notre Dame 3-0 17.2% 12 -3 229.4 19 0.215 13
16 Louisville 2-1 17.1% 14 -2 236.4 13 0.167 25
17 Mississippi State 3-0 16.8% 26 9 239.9 11 0.139 31
18 Ohio State 2-1 16.1% 17 -1 230.5 17 0.184 17
19 South Carolina 2-1 16.0% 18 -1 226.9 20 0.203 15
20 USC 2-1 15.5% 10 -10 219.1 32 0.243 6
21 Clemson 1-1 13.9% 23 2 224.1 23 0.174 22
22 Arizona State 3-0 13.1% 20 -2 224.6 21 0.151 28
23 Wisconsin 1-1 13.0% 21 -2 220.1 29 0.179 20
24 BYU 3-0 12.7% 24 0 218.3 35 0.183 18
25 TCU 2-0 12.7% 36 11 233.8 15 0.083 45
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
26 Kansas State 2-0 12.5% 33 7 218.7 34 0.176 21
27 Nebraska 3-0 12.3% 39 12 221.5 25 0.154 27
28 Oregon State 2-0 11.9% 41 13 218.9 33 0.161 26
29 Virginia Tech 2-1 11.9% 19 -10 213.8 40 0.193 16
30 UCLA 3-0 11.7% 25 -5 216.5 37 0.172 23
31 Miami 2-1 11.3% 30 -1 224.6 22 0.111 36
32 Pittsburgh 3-0 10.3% 29 -3 217.6 36 0.133 32
33 Arizona 3-0 10.2% 32 -1 219.4 31 0.119 35
34 Washington 3-0 9.7% 37 3 213.5 42 0.145 29
35 Michigan 2-1 9.6% 27 -8 222.6 24 0.083 44
36 Penn State 3-0 9.3% 34 -2 220.8 27 0.090 41
37 Florida 2-0 9.2% 31 -6 220.2 28 0.091 39
38 Boise State 2-1 9.2% 43 5 221.1 26 0.085 43
39 Iowa 2-1 8.9% 35 -4 213.6 41 0.125 34
40 North Carolina 2-0 8.8% 40 0 210.3 46 0.145 30
41 Utah 2-0 8.6% 38 -3 212.4 45 0.127 33
42 Georgia Tech 3-0 7.5% 42 0 215.1 39 0.085 42
43 Duke 3-0 7.5% 44 1 212.9 44 0.098 37
44 Arkansas 2-1 7.4% 48 4 219.9 30 0.050 53
45 Indiana 1-1 6.4% 53 8 216.5 38 0.051 52
46 Marshall 3-0 5.3% 54 8 213.1 43 0.046 56
47 Central Florida 0-2 4.5% 28 -19 209.8 47 0.050 54
48 Cincinnati 1-0 4.5% 46 -2 202.3 59 0.098 38
49 East Carolina 2-1 4.4% 59 10 204.4 54 0.083 46
50 Texas 1-2 3.5% 47 -3 209.8 48 0.026 63
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
51 Boston College 2-1 3.1% 68 17 202.3 60 0.067 49
52 Northern Illinois 2-0 3.1% 49 -3 198.6 66 0.090 40
53 Virginia 2-1 2.9% 61 8 200.4 63 0.074 47
54 West Virginia 2-1 2.7% 55 1 204.1 55 0.044 57
55 Maryland 2-1 2.6% 52 -3 204.8 51 0.037 58
56 N.C. State 3-0 2.5% 76 20 205.9 50 0.028 62
57 Navy 2-1 2.5% 57 0 200.6 62 0.062 51
58 Syracuse 2-0 2.4% 72 14 200.4 64 0.063 50
59 UTSA 1-2 2.1% 51 -8 203.8 56 0.032 60
60 Texas Tech 2-1 1.5% 45 -15 209.6 49 -0.017 70
61 Northwestern 0-2 1.5% 62 1 201.9 61 0.031 61
62 California 2-0 0.9% 70 8 204.5 52 0.001 66
63 Rutgers 2-1 0.5% 60 -3 198.2 67 0.033 59
64 Tennessee 2-1 0.4% 56 -8 204.5 53 -0.010 69
65 Bowling Green 2-1 0.1% 64 -1 202.4 58 -0.005 68
66 Washington State 1-2 -0.1% 65 -1 197.4 68 0.025 64
67 Iowa State 1-2 -0.2% 77 10 190.5 80 0.068 48
68 Houston 1-2 -0.3% 50 -18 192.7 78 0.049 55
69 Toledo 1-2 -0.7% 58 -11 199.0 65 -0.001 67
70 Minnesota 2-1 -0.9% 63 -7 203.8 57 -0.036 76
71 Nevada 2-1 -1.3% 69 -2 194.0 73 0.019 65
72 Western Kentucky 1-2 -2.3% 75 3 196.2 71 -0.019 71
73 Kentucky 2-1 -2.9% 66 -7 197.1 70 -0.037 77
74 Colorado State 2-1 -3.4% 84 10 194.9 72 -0.035 75
75 Illinois 2-1 -4.0% 67 -8 197.1 69 -0.063 80
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
76 San Diego State 1-1 -4.6% 73 -3 188.7 82 -0.024 73
77 Ball State 1-2 -5.7% 74 -3 186.1 88 -0.031 74
78 Memphis 1-1 -5.8% 78 0 187.0 84 -0.041 78
79 Temple 1-1 -6.0% 81 2 183.4 95 -0.022 72
80 Utah State 2-1 -6.4% 71 -9 192.7 77 -0.091 83
81 South Alabama 1-1 -7.1% 79 -2 190.7 79 -0.093 84
82 Louisiana Tech 2-1 -7.2% 91 9 186.1 89 -0.067 81
83 Connecticut 1-2 -7.9% 85 2 183.1 96 -0.063 79
84 Hawaii 1-2 -8.0% 87 3 184.1 93 -0.071 82
85 San Jose State 1-1 -8.1% 88 3 193.3 75 -0.135 92
86 Western Michigan 1-1 -8.3% 110 24 186.5 86 -0.094 86
87 Middle Tennessee 2-1 -8.8% 99 12 187.0 85 -0.109 87
88 Colorado 1-2 -9.1% 111 23 183.6 94 -0.093 85
89 Tulane 1-2 -9.5% 94 5 184.6 91 -0.110 88
90 Rice 0-2 -9.7% 98 8 190.1 81 -0.150 100
91 Vanderbilt 1-2 -10.3% 90 -1 193.4 74 -0.184 110
92 Akron 1-1 -10.5% 105 13 182.8 97 -0.121 89
93 Fresno State 0-3 -10.5% 82 -11 188.0 83 -0.155 102
94 Arkansas State 1-2 -10.7% 80 -14 185.4 90 -0.143 95
95 Purdue 1-2 -11.0% 112 17 184.5 92 -0.143 96
96 Central Michigan 2-1 -11.2% 89 -7 180.8 100 -0.126 91
97 Florida Atlantic 1-2 -11.3% 119 22 193.0 76 -0.206 115
98 Georgia Southern 1-2 -12.1% 116 18 180.7 101 -0.143 97
99 UAB 2-1 -12.1% 104 5 180.4 102 -0.142 94
100 Kansas 1-1 -13.0% 95 -5 180.2 103 -0.161 104
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Tulsa 1-2 -13.0% 83 -18 182.7 98 -0.178 109
102 Air Force 2-1 -13.1% 106 4 178.7 105 -0.153 101
103 Wake Forest 0-2 -13.4% 96 -7 172.8 118 -0.123 90
104 South Florida 1-2 -13.6% 86 -18 177.6 107 -0.160 103
105 Buffalo 1-2 -13.8% 100 -5 173.3 117 -0.136 93
106 UL-Lafayette 1-2 -14.0% 93 -13 186.3 87 -0.224 121
107 North Texas 1-2 -14.2% 92 -15 173.9 112 -0.149 98
108 Army 1-1 -14.3% 101 -7 173.7 115 -0.150 99
109 UTEP 2-1 -14.5% 114 5 175.1 111 -0.163 106
110 SMU 0-2 -14.9% 109 -1 173.9 113 -0.164 107
111 UNLV 1-2 -15.1% 113 2 173.5 116 -0.168 108
112 New Mexico 0-2 -15.6% 115 3 177.0 110 -0.201 113
113 UL-Monroe 2-1 -15.7% 108 -5 177.1 109 -0.204 114
114 Kent State 0-3 -15.8% 102 -12 173.8 114 -0.185 111
115 Wyoming 2-1 -16.0% 107 -8 181.2 99 -0.237 123
116 Ohio 1-2 -16.1% 103 -13 179.1 104 -0.225 122
117 Texas State 1-1 -16.2% 97 -20 178.4 106 -0.224 120
118 Florida International 1-2 -17.8% 117 -1 162.9 122 -0.161 105
119 Troy 0-3 -17.8% 120 1 177.4 108 -0.255 124
120 Southern Miss 1-2 -18.5% 122 2 169.3 119 -0.219 118
121 Idaho 0-2 -19.3% 118 -3 167.0 120 -0.222 119
122 Massachusetts 0-3 -19.7% 125 3 163.5 121 -0.207 116
123 Miami (Ohio) 0-3 -20.7% 123 0 156.8 128 -0.187 112
124 Old Dominion 2-1 -20.7% 121 -3 161.4 124 -0.218 117
125 Georgia State 1-2 -23.0% 124 -1 162.3 123 -0.276 125
126 Eastern Michigan 1-2 -24.9% 127 1 158.4 127 -0.293 126
127 Appalachian State 1-1 -25.0% 128 1 159.0 126 -0.301 127
128 New Mexico State 2-1 -25.1% 126 -2 160.8 125 -0.316 128