Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 11/22/14

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
1 Alabama 10-1 35.7% 1 0 18.1% 4 19.0% 2 -1.4% 97
2 Oregon 10-1 33.2% 2 0 21.0% 2 9.0% 27 3.2% 11
3 Ohio State 10-1 32.2% 3 0 16.9% 6 13.5% 11 1.7% 27
4 Mississippi State 10-1 31.0% 5 1 13.0% 12 17.0% 6 1.0% 49
5 TCU 9-1 30.4% 6 1 12.5% 14 15.0% 8 2.8% 14
6 Georgia 9-2 30.3% 8 2 16.5% 7 9.4% 23 4.4% 6
7 Florida State 11-0 28.9% 10 3 17.2% 5 10.3% 20 1.3% 36
8 Auburn 8-3 28.4% 7 -1 20.4% 3 9.1% 26 -1.1% 90
9 Ole Miss 8-3 28.0% 4 -5 7.9% 27 18.8% 4 1.3% 37
10 Baylor 9-1 27.9% 9 -1 12.8% 13 13.7% 10 1.4% 34
11 Oklahoma 8-3 26.5% 12 1 15.3% 9 7.3% 35 3.8% 10
12 Georgia Tech 9-2 24.6% 14 2 21.7% 1 0.3% 61 2.6% 17
13 Wisconsin 9-2 24.0% 13 0 10.4% 19 13.3% 13 0.3% 63
14 LSU 7-4 23.7% 15 1 5.7% 41 15.3% 7 2.7% 16
15 UCLA 9-2 22.8% 17 2 14.9% 10 7.4% 33 0.5% 55
16 Louisville 8-3 22.2% 16 0 6.1% 37 17.2% 5 -1.2% 91
17 Miami 6-5 21.0% 11 -6 12.2% 15 9.7% 22 -0.9% 88
18 Michigan State 9-2 20.4% 22 4 10.6% 18 8.1% 30 1.8% 26
19 Marshall 11-0 20.0% 18 -1 7.3% 31 11.1% 17 1.6% 29
20 Clemson 8-3 20.0% 20 0 0.3% 55 21.3% 1 -1.6% 102
21 Kansas State 8-2 19.5% 26 5 7.5% 29 7.8% 31 4.2% 8
22 Arkansas 6-5 19.4% 30 8 9.6% 22 11.2% 16 -1.4% 94
23 Arizona State 9-2 19.0% 19 -4 8.4% 25 9.4% 24 1.3% 39
24 Notre Dame 7-4 18.8% 24 0 10.3% 20 7.2% 36 1.3% 35
25 Nebraska 8-3 17.0% 23 -2 7.2% 33 5.4% 44 4.4% 7
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
26 Duke 8-3 16.3% 25 -1 4.1% 47 7.2% 37 5.1% 4
27 USC 7-4 15.6% 21 -6 7.3% 30 7.4% 34 0.9% 50
28 West Virginia 6-5 15.1% 28 0 5.7% 42 9.2% 25 0.2% 66
29 Arizona 9-2 14.2% 32 3 7.7% 28 6.0% 42 0.4% 58
30 Colorado State 10-1 14.2% 31 1 9.8% 21 1.1% 56 3.2% 12
31 Minnesota 8-3 13.9% 35 4 4.4% 46 7.0% 38 2.5% 19
32 Virginia Tech 5-6 13.8% 27 -5 -6.0% 93 18.8% 3 1.0% 48
33 Missouri 9-2 12.7% 37 4 -1.0% 62 12.2% 15 1.5% 31
34 Boise State 9-2 12.5% 36 2 5.2% 43 7.7% 32 -0.4% 77
35 Virginia 5-6 12.5% 40 5 -0.1% 58 12.9% 14 -0.3% 71
36 Stanford 6-5 12.0% 33 -3 -0.6% 60 13.4% 12 -0.8% 83
37 Boston College 6-5 11.7% 34 -3 8.8% 23 3.3% 50 -0.3% 74
38 Utah 7-4 11.5% 29 -9 -3.4% 74 10.1% 21 4.8% 5
39 Tennessee 5-6 9.4% 38 -1 -0.4% 59 8.6% 29 1.2% 40
40 Memphis 8-3 8.9% 39 -1 -2.3% 71 4.9% 45 6.3% 1
41 Florida 6-4 8.2% 42 1 -4.4% 80 11.0% 18 1.6% 30
42 BYU 7-4 7.7% 41 -1 6.6% 35 0.0% 62 1.1% 45
43 Maryland 7-4 7.6% 46 3 0.1% 56 2.4% 52 5.2% 3
44 Western Michigan 8-3 6.9% 49 5 4.6% 45 1.8% 55 0.5% 57
45 Pittsburgh 5-6 6.6% 48 3 11.4% 16 -4.5% 82 -0.3% 75
46 Navy 5-5 5.9% 45 -1 13.5% 11 -6.2% 92 -1.3% 93
47 Texas A&M 7-4 5.6% 50 3 8.6% 24 -5.2% 84 2.1% 23
48 South Carolina 6-5 5.3% 52 4 15.9% 8 -11.5% 112 0.9% 51
49 Penn State 6-5 5.2% 43 -6 -7.2% 101 14.4% 9 -2.0% 104
50 Iowa 7-4 4.2% 54 4 1.5% 52 3.5% 49 -0.8% 86
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
51 Utah State 9-3 4.2% 51 0 -4.6% 83 8.9% 28 -0.1% 69
52 Air Force 8-3 4.1% 44 -8 -4.6% 84 6.3% 40 2.4% 21
53 East Carolina 7-3 3.7% 57 4 7.3% 32 -0.7% 64 -2.8% 112
54 Cincinnati 7-3 3.7% 60 6 6.0% 39 -5.5% 86 3.2% 13
55 Texas 6-5 3.3% 53 -2 -4.4% 81 10.6% 19 -3.0% 114
56 California 5-6 2.2% 47 -9 6.0% 38 -4.2% 78 0.3% 62
57 Central Florida 7-3 2.0% 59 2 -1.4% 66 3.9% 48 -0.5% 79
58 North Carolina 6-5 1.9% 67 9 10.7% 17 -6.7% 95 -2.1% 106
59 Michigan 5-6 1.8% 55 -4 -4.9% 85 6.4% 39 0.3% 59
60 Washington 7-5 1.7% 62 2 -5.4% 88 4.6% 46 2.5% 20
61 Georgia Southern 8-3 1.6% 61 0 4.9% 44 -3.0% 72 -0.2% 70
62 Louisiana Tech 7-4 0.9% 58 -4 -6.1% 94 6.3% 41 0.7% 54
63 Northwestern 5-6 0.4% 64 1 -1.8% 69 5.9% 43 -3.7% 118
64 N.C. State 6-5 -0.9% 66 2 3.0% 50 -5.7% 88 1.8% 25
65 Nevada 6-5 -1.1% 56 -9 2.4% 51 -4.6% 83 1.1% 42
66 Toledo 7-4 -2.4% 68 2 6.4% 36 -8.7% 99 -0.1% 68
67 Temple 5-5 -2.9% 71 4 -9.0% 108 3.9% 47 2.2% 22
68 Oregon State 5-6 -3.2% 65 -3 1.2% 54 -4.1% 77 -0.3% 72
69 Purdue 3-8 -4.6% 69 0 -3.3% 73 -0.5% 63 -0.8% 85
70 Rutgers 6-5 -4.7% 63 -7 -1.4% 67 -2.8% 71 -0.6% 80
71 Arkansas State 6-5 -4.9% 70 -1 -0.8% 61 -3.5% 75 -0.6% 81
72 Oklahoma State 5-6 -5.8% 76 4 -4.2% 78 -4.5% 81 2.8% 15
73 UAB 5-6 -5.9% 87 14 -5.7% 91 -5.9% 91 5.7% 2
74 Syracuse 3-8 -6.3% 72 -2 -8.0% 104 3.1% 51 -1.4% 98
75 San Diego State 6-5 -6.8% 80 5 -6.5% 98 -1.3% 66 1.0% 47
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
76 Western Kentucky 6-5 -6.9% 82 6 5.7% 40 -9.7% 105 -2.9% 113
77 Houston 6-4 -7.1% 75 -2 -5.5% 90 0.6% 59 -2.2% 108
78 Central Michigan 7-5 -7.4% 77 -1 -1.9% 70 -2.1% 68 -3.4% 117
79 Colorado 2-9 -8.1% 73 -6 -1.3% 65 -5.9% 90 -0.9% 87
80 Illinois 5-6 -8.3% 89 9 -3.2% 72 -6.4% 93 1.3% 38
81 Kentucky 5-6 -8.3% 79 -2 -1.8% 68 -3.7% 76 -2.8% 110
82 Texas Tech 4-7 -8.6% 78 -4 3.7% 48 -11.6% 116 -0.7% 82
83 Washington State 3-8 -8.7% 74 -9 7.2% 34 -7.3% 98 -8.6% 127
84 Middle Tennessee 6-5 -8.9% 83 -1 -5.8% 92 -3.4% 74 0.3% 60
85 Northern Illinois 8-2 -9.1% 85 0 -1.0% 63 -9.6% 103 1.5% 33
86 Wake Forest 2-8 -9.4% 90 4 -15.7% 125 2.2% 53 4.1% 9
87 Indiana 3-8 -10.0% 88 1 -4.3% 79 -5.3% 85 -0.5% 78
88 Iowa State 2-8 -10.4% 86 -2 1.4% 53 -11.5% 114 -0.3% 73
89 Rice 7-4 -11.3% 92 3 -0.1% 57 -9.8% 106 -1.4% 96
90 UL-Lafayette 7-4 -11.5% 81 -9 -1.3% 64 -11.4% 111 1.2% 41
91 New Mexico 3-8 -12.1% 84 -7 3.5% 49 -14.2% 123 -1.3% 92
92 Ball State 4-7 -12.9% 101 9 -8.5% 106 -6.5% 94 2.1% 24
93 Texas State 6-5 -13.4% 102 9 -7.5% 103 -6.9% 96 1.1% 43
94 Akron 5-6 -13.6% 103 9 -13.8% 121 -1.3% 67 1.5% 32
95 UTEP 6-5 -14.0% 94 -1 -8.4% 105 -4.2% 79 -1.4% 95
96 South Alabama 6-5 -14.3% 99 3 -15.3% 124 1.0% 57 0.1% 67
97 Florida International 4-8 -15.1% 98 1 -15.1% 123 0.9% 58 -1.0% 89
98 UTSA 3-8 -15.2% 91 -7 -16.7% 126 -1.1% 65 2.5% 18
99 Bowling Green 7-4 -15.3% 107 8 -6.4% 97 -9.1% 101 0.2% 64
100 Hawaii 4-8 -15.3% 96 -4 -11.3% 113 -5.7% 89 1.7% 28
Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change Off. F/+ Rk Def. F/+ Rk ST F/+ Rk
101 Kansas 3-8 -16.3% 93 -8 -12.8% 116 1.9% 54 -5.3% 121
102 Florida Atlantic 3-8 -16.5% 106 4 -6.2% 95 -10.4% 109 0.2% 65
103 Connecticut 2-8 -16.6% 95 -8 -13.6% 119 -3.3% 73 0.3% 61
104 San Jose State 3-8 -16.7% 97 -7 -7.2% 102 -2.6% 70 -6.9% 124
105 UL-Monroe 4-7 -16.8% 111 6 -13.8% 122 -2.2% 69 -0.8% 84
106 Tulane 3-8 -16.9% 100 -6 -9.1% 109 0.4% 60 -8.2% 126
107 Idaho 1-9 -17.5% 112 5 -3.7% 77 -14.9% 125 1.0% 46
108 Old Dominion 5-6 -17.6% 109 1 8.2% 26 -20.7% 128 -5.2% 120
109 Miami (Ohio) 2-9 -18.1% 110 1 -4.6% 82 -13.2% 119 -0.4% 76
110 Fresno State 5-6 -18.5% 114 4 -9.4% 110 -10.2% 108 1.1% 44
111 Massachusetts 3-8 -18.7% 105 -6 -3.5% 75 -11.8% 117 -3.4% 116
112 Vanderbilt 3-8 -18.8% 108 -4 -13.7% 120 -5.6% 87 0.5% 56
113 Kent State 1-9 -19.2% 113 0 -13.2% 118 -4.4% 80 -1.6% 101
114 Southern Miss 3-8 -19.9% 115 1 -9.7% 111 -8.7% 100 -1.5% 100
115 Buffalo 4-6 -20.3% 116 1 -5.5% 89 -11.5% 115 -3.3% 115
116 Ohio 5-6 -20.4% 118 2 -10.4% 112 -7.2% 97 -2.8% 111
117 Army 4-7 -20.6% 117 0 -3.6% 76 -14.9% 124 -2.1% 107
118 Wyoming 4-7 -21.2% 104 -14 -4.9% 87 -10.0% 107 -6.3% 123
119 Tulsa 2-9 -21.9% 119 0 -6.3% 96 -14.2% 122 -1.4% 99
120 North Texas 4-7 -22.7% 123 3 -13.0% 117 -10.4% 110 0.7% 53
121 UNLV 2-10 -22.8% 121 0 -7.0% 99 -16.6% 126 0.8% 52
122 South Florida 4-7 -23.4% 120 -2 -12.0% 114 -9.3% 102 -2.1% 105
123 Appalachian State 6-5 -23.7% 122 -1 -4.9% 86 -9.7% 104 -9.1% 128
124 New Mexico State 2-9 -27.2% 124 0 -8.7% 107 -11.5% 113 -6.9% 125
125 Troy 3-8 -27.4% 125 0 -12.1% 115 -13.6% 121 -1.7% 103
126 Georgia State 1-10 -28.5% 126 0 -7.0% 100 -18.7% 127 -2.8% 109
127 SMU 0-10 -35.4% 127 0 -19.6% 128 -11.8% 118 -3.9% 119
128 Eastern Michigan 2-9 -37.8% 128 0 -19.0% 127 -13.3% 120 -5.5% 122