Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

printable version

Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

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2007 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/7/08

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 LSU 12-2 +33.7% +15.1% 5 +17.6% 3 +1.1% 36 261.2 3 0.282 1
2 Ohio State 11-2 +33.4% +12.2% 10 +19.9% 1 +1.3% 29 277.6 1 0.202 8
3 USC 11-2 +33.1% +11.1% 15 +19.6% 2 +2.4% 14 262.4 2 0.261 3
4 West Virginia 11-2 +32.7% +13.7% 6 +16.2% 4 +2.8% 10 259.8 4 0.262 2
5 Florida 9-4 +29.5% +23.6% 1 +2.2% 50 +3.7% 2 249.3 5 0.231 5
6 Oregon 9-4 +27.8% +15.4% 3 +11.8% 15 +0.6% 47 244.0 10 0.256 4
7 Oklahoma 11-3 +27.3% +10.4% 16 +14.1% 11 +2.8% 8 247.9 7 0.208 7
8 Virginia Tech 11-3 +25.1% +4.8% 38 +16.1% 5 +4.2% 1 247.1 8 0.186 12
9 Missouri 12-2 +23.8% +15.4% 4 +8.3% 22 +0.1% 62 248.6 6 0.190 10
10 Georgia 11-2 +23.8% +9.7% 17 +11.7% 16 +2.4% 13 231.0 22 0.222 6
11 South Florida 9-4 +22.9% +6.7% 27 +15.6% 7 +0.6% 49 239.2 12 0.194 9
12 Kansas 12-1 +22.0% +6.3% 31 +14.5% 9 +1.2% 33 245.1 9 0.152 20
13 Clemson 9-4 +21.9% +6.5% 29 +13.6% 12 +1.7% 24 239.6 11 0.187 11
14 Cincinnati 10-3 +21.0% +7.1% 26 +11.3% 17 +2.7% 11 232.3 19 0.183 13
15 BYU 11-2 +21.0% +11.8% 12 +8.7% 20 +0.4% 55 238.7 13 0.177 14
16 Auburn 9-4 +20.8% +5.9% 33 +14.2% 10 +0.8% 43 233.7 17 0.177 14
17 Tennessee 10-4 +18.3% +12.1% 11 +5.4% 36 +0.8% 42 227.0 24 0.157 18
18 Texas 10-3 +17.8% +9.6% 18 +6.3% 32 +1.9% 20 236.0 15 0.126 26
19 Boston College 11-3 +16.5% +11.5% 14 +7.1% 29 -2.2% 105 231.1 20 0.156 19
20 Arizona State 10-3 +16.2% +7.1% 25 +8.2% 23 +0.9% 40 220.0 35 0.159 17
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
21 Kentucky 8-5 +15.8% +11.8% 13 +4.5% 44 -0.5% 76 225.3 25 0.128 25
22 Illinois 9-4 +15.4% +8.5% 21 +6.6% 31 +0.4% 57 234.5 16 0.116 28
23 Arkansas 8-5 +15.4% +8.0% 23 +7.5% 27 -0.2% 70 221.6 32 0.147 21
24 UCLA 6-7 +14.7% -3.1% 76 +14.6% 8 +3.2% 5 222.4 31 0.141 22
25 California 7-6 +14.2% +8.9% 20 +5.4% 35 -0.1% 69 221.3 33 0.138 24
26 Texas Tech 9-4 +14.0% +13.2% 7 +0.0% 57 +0.8% 44 233.5 18 0.100 32
27 Oregon State 9-4 +13.7% -0.9% 56 +15.8% 6 -1.1% 86 225.0 27 0.161 16
28 Michigan 9-4 +13.7% +0.7% 53 +12.7% 13 +0.3% 58 225.0 26 0.141 22
29 Penn State 9-4 +13.4% +5.2% 36 +7.3% 28 +1.0% 37 237.5 14 0.069 41
30 Utah 9-4 +12.7% -2.5% 71 +12.2% 14 +3.0% 6 223.8 30 0.095 33
31 Rutgers 8-5 +11.2% +7.4% 24 +4.7% 43 -0.9% 80 231.1 21 0.062 45
32 Connecticut 9-4 +10.7% +1.0% 50 +8.0% 26 +1.7% 23 217.0 37 0.078 39
33 Arizona 5-7 +10.2% +3.7% 43 +5.2% 38 +1.3% 32 213.2 43 0.117 27
34 Alabama 7-6 +10.2% +1.6% 48 +7.0% 30 +1.6% 25 210.6 48 0.116 28
35 Central Florida 10-4 +9.8% -1.4% 60 +9.1% 19 +2.0% 17 220.7 34 0.061 46
36 Boise State 10-3 +9.6% +4.2% 40 +2.2% 51 +3.3% 4 227.7 23 0.054 48
37 South Carolina 6-6 +9.5% +2.9% 44 +6.1% 34 +0.5% 54 215.9 40 0.109 30
38 Louisville 6-6 +9.0% +15.5% 2 -5.0% 82 -1.5% 93 216.9 38 0.063 43
39 Michigan State 7-6 +8.4% +5.7% 34 +1.7% 53 +1.0% 38 218.8 36 0.090 35
40 Wisconsin 9-4 +8.1% +6.2% 32 0.0% 58 +1.9% 19 216.3 39 0.080 38
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
41 Hawaii 12-1 +8.0% +6.7% 28 +2.6% 49 -1.3% 91 223.9 29 0.023 55
42 Oklahoma State 7-6 +7.9% +12.6% 9 -3.7% 74 -1.0% 83 225.0 28 0.047 50
43 TCU 8-5 +6.9% -3.2% 78 +8.2% 24 +2.0% 18 212.2 45 0.054 48
44 Virginia 9-4 +6.7% +2.3% 46 +5.1% 40 -0.7% 77 208.3 55 0.101 31
45 Wake Forest 9-4 +6.5% -2.3% 69 +6.2% 33 +2.6% 12 205.5 59 0.091 34
46 Florida State 7-6 +5.9% -0.6% 55 +5.2% 37 +1.3% 31 210.1 49 0.084 36
47 Maryland 6-7 +5.5% +2.5% 45 +1.7% 54 +1.3% 30 207.6 57 0.069 41
48 Mississippi State 8-5 +4.9% -3.4% 79 +8.0% 25 +0.2% 60 202.4 64 0.084 36
49 Troy 8-4 +4.8% -2.2% 68 +4.9% 41 +2.2% 16 209.3 52 0.017 57
50 Washington 4-9 +4.7% +6.4% 30 -1.7% 64 +0.1% 65 208.4 54 0.074 40
51 Georgia Tech 7-6 +4.5% +4.3% 39 -2.0% 65 +2.3% 15 208.8 53 0.063 43
52 Pittsburgh 5-7 +4.4% -5.0% 86 +9.7% 18 -0.4% 72 205.1 60 0.055 47
53 Fresno State 9-4 +3.5% +4.0% 41 -3.9% 75 +3.3% 3 209.6 51 0.018 56
54 Air Force 9-4 +2.7% +8.2% 22 -4.7% 80 -0.8% 78 212.4 44 0.046 51
55 New Mexico 9-4 +2.5% -7.1% 93 +8.5% 21 +1.2% 34 212.0 46 -0.013 59
56 Tulsa 10-4 +2.4% +9.3% 19 -4.9% 81 -2.0% 103 215.2 41 0.024 54
57 Colorado 6-7 +0.8% -3.6% 81 +3.9% 45 +0.5% 51 202.1 65 0.029 52
58 Purdue 8-5 +0.5% -2.0% 66 +2.1% 52 +0.4% 56 210.7 47 -0.015 61
59 Kansas State 5-7 -0.2% +1.1% 49 -4.1% 77 +2.8% 9 207.6 56 -0.049 71
60 Texas A&M 7-6 -1.7% +0.2% 54 -2.2% 66 +0.3% 59 214.4 42 -0.035 67
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
61 Washington State 5-7 -2.0% +4.9% 37 -3.7% 72 -3.2% 110 202.0 66 -0.018 62
62 North Carolina 4-8 -2.4% -3.9% 84 +1.4% 55 +0.1% 64 195.1 72 -0.002 58
63 Navy 8-5 -2.8% +12.6% 8 -15.5% 117 +0.1% 61 198.6 68 -0.014 60
64 N.C. State 5-7 -3.1% -4.6% 85 +0.9% 56 +0.6% 49 194.7 74 -0.040 70
65 Southern Miss 7-6 -3.3% -3.2% 77 -1.0% 62 +0.9% 39 204.0 61 -0.018 62
66 Stanford 4-8 -3.4% -2.7% 73 -0.7% 59 +0.0% 67 187.5 87 0.027 53
67 East Carolina 8-5 -3.4% -1.5% 62 -0.9% 60 -1.1% 84 209.9 50 -0.038 69
68 Miami 5-7 -3.5% -6.7% 92 +5.2% 39 -1.9% 100 195.8 70 -0.019 64
69 Indiana 7-6 -4.0% -1.5% 61 -3.4% 71 +0.8% 41 203.8 62 -0.036 68
70 Iowa 6-6 -4.2% -8.7% 101 +4.9% 42 -0.4% 75 195.0 73 -0.023 65
71 Vanderbilt 5-7 -4.2% -5.1% 87 +3.3% 46 -2.4% 107 192.9 77 -0.028 66
72 Nebraska 5-7 -4.3% +5.4% 35 -11.2% 102 +1.5% 27 207.3 58 -0.097 86
73 Houston 8-5 -5.7% -2.8% 74 -0.9% 61 -2.0% 101 202.7 63 -0.060 73
74 Florida Atlantic 8-5 -6.6% -3.8% 83 -1.2% 63 -1.6% 95 195.4 71 -0.074 77
75 Colorado State 3-9 -8.7% -1.8% 65 -6.5% 87 -0.4% 74 190.8 82 -0.079 78
76 Ball State 7-6 -8.9% -2.4% 70 -7.3% 89 +0.7% 46 191.0 79 -0.049 71
77 Ole Miss 3-9 -8.9% -2.7% 72 -2.6% 69 -3.6% 112 193.0 76 -0.065 75
78 Marshall 3-9 -9.2% +0.8% 51 -10.1% 98 +0.0% 66 190.9 81 -0.073 76
79 Wyoming 5-7 -9.4% -9.8% 103 +2.7% 48 -2.3% 106 194.0 75 -0.095 85
80 Nevada 6-7 -9.7% +1.8% 47 -7.8% 93 -3.7% 113 200.2 67 -0.122 89
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
81 UTEP 4-8 -9.8% +0.7% 52 -12.4% 107 +1.8% 21 190.4 83 -0.084 81
82 Western Michigan 5-7 -10.3% -7.8% 97 -2.4% 67 -0.1% 68 191.8 78 -0.093 84
83 Central Michigan 8-6 -11.1% +4.0% 42 -13.9% 113 -1.2% 88 196.6 69 -0.091 83
84 Northwestern 6-6 -11.4% -2.1% 67 -7.4% 90 -1.9% 99 190.9 80 -0.079 78
85 Middle Tennessee 5-7 -11.5% -5.3% 88 -5.2% 84 -1.0% 82 184.7 90 -0.109 87
86 Arkansas State 5-7 -11.6% -7.3% 94 -3.1% 70 -1.1% 87 187.5 86 -0.119 88
87 Notre Dame 3-9 -13.9% -13.8% 116 +2.8% 47 -2.9% 109 180.0 100 -0.064 74
88 Minnesota 1-11 -14.0% -0.9% 57 -12.8% 109 -0.4% 73 183.1 91 -0.088 82
89 UL-Monroe 6-6 -14.4% -5.9% 91 -7.6% 92 -0.8% 79 185.9 88 -0.128 92
90 UNLV 2-10 -14.4% -8.1% 99 -4.6% 79 -1.7% 96 180.5 98 -0.123 90
91 Ohio 6-6 -14.8% -8.3% 100 -8.3% 96 +1.8% 22 183.1 92 -0.140 96
92 Bowling Green 8-5 -15.4% -3.6% 82 -11.5% 104 -0.3% 71 190.0 84 -0.155 101
93 Louisiana Tech 5-7 -15.5% -11.8% 110 -2.5% 68 -1.2% 89 189.3 85 -0.164 103
94 SMU 1-11 -15.5% -3.6% 80 -12.5% 108 +0.5% 52 185.2 89 -0.138 94
95 Iowa State 3-9 -15.6% -7.6% 95 -5.2% 83 -2.8% 108 181.2 96 -0.128 92
96 Toledo 5-7 -15.9% -1.2% 58 -15.2% 116 +0.5% 53 182.1 94 -0.195 112
97 Memphis 7-6 -17.0% -1.8% 63 -11.8% 105 -3.4% 111 180.5 97 -0.152 99
98 San Diego State 4-8 -17.3% -1.8% 64 -17.0% 119 +1.5% 26 176.1 108 -0.138 94
99 Tulane 4-8 -18.7% -9.3% 102 -7.4% 91 -2.0% 102 177.4 104 -0.124 91
100 Miami (Ohio) 6-7 -18.9% -13.0% 113 -4.2% 78 -1.7% 97 180.1 99 -0.151 98
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Duke 1-11 -18.9% -8.1% 98 -5.6% 86 -5.2% 117 170.4 111 -0.081 80
102 New Mexico State 4-9 -19.5% -2.8% 75 -10.4% 100 -6.3% 119 182.3 93 -0.190 110
103 UL-Lafayette 3-9 -19.6% -1.2% 59 -14.6% 115 -3.7% 115 178.6 101 -0.160 102
104 San Jose State 5-7 -20.1% -11.9% 112 -6.6% 88 -1.6% 94 178.4 103 -0.214 119
105 Kent State 3-9 -20.2% -10.4% 106 -7.9% 94 -1.8% 98 181.6 95 -0.170 105
106 Akron 4-8 -20.3% -11.6% 108 -9.5% 97 +0.8% 45 178.5 102 -0.187 109
107 Rice 3-9 -20.5% -5.5% 89 -14.0% 114 -0.9% 81 176.0 109 -0.166 104
108 Eastern Michigan 4-8 -20.9% -5.8% 90 -13.1% 110 -2.1% 104 168.8 114 -0.152 99
109 Idaho 1-11 -21.5% -13.1% 114 -11.3% 103 +2.9% 7 165.1 116 -0.194 111
110 Syracuse 2-10 -21.6% -10.2% 105 -10.2% 99 -1.1% 85 171.5 110 -0.186 108
111 Army 3-9 -22.0% -18.0% 118 -4.1% 76 +0.1% 63 163.7 117 -0.149 97
112 Temple 4-8 -22.3% -14.9% 117 -3.7% 73 -3.7% 114 177.2 105 -0.206 118
113 Baylor 3-9 -22.6% -11.8% 111 -5.4% 85 -5.4% 118 177.0 106 -0.182 107
114 Buffalo 5-7 -23.0% -10.7% 107 -13.4% 111 +1.1% 35 176.6 107 -0.197 113
115 UAB 2-10 -24.2% -9.9% 104 -15.7% 118 +1.5% 28 165.3 115 -0.199 115
116 North Texas 2-10 -24.3% -7.7% 96 -12.1% 106 -4.5% 116 169.1 112 -0.181 106
117 Utah State 2-10 -24.9% -11.7% 109 -13.8% 112 +0.6% 47 162.4 118 -0.205 117
118 Northern Illinois 2-10 -25.2% -13.3% 115 -10.6% 101 -1.4% 92 168.8 113 -0.199 115
119 Florida International 1-11 -27.7% -18.3% 119 -8.2% 95 -1.2% 90 158.0 119 -0.198 114