Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2008 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/8/09

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency), explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

NOTE: Because special teams ratings are integrated into Offensive and Defensive S&P+, and because Special Teams has its own ratings within FEI, creating Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams F/+ ratings has become difficult since the most recent S&P+ redesign. For now, there will therefore be no unit ratings presented -- only overall F/+ ratings.

F/+ Rk Team Rec F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Florida 13-1 73.8% 30.6 2 0.337 1
2 Oklahoma 12-2 70.2% 30.9 1 0.309 3
3 Texas 12-1 67.4% 27.8 4 0.310 2
4 USC 12-1 65.2% 28.3 3 0.289 4
5 Penn State 11-2 54.6% 22.9 5 0.250 5
6 TCU 11-2 44.2% 19.1 8 0.198 9
7 Alabama 12-2 44.2% 19.8 7 0.191 10
8 Ohio State 10-3 43.4% 20.7 6 0.180 12
9 Boise State 12-1 39.8% 16.4 9 0.189 11
10 Utah 13-0 37.4% 13.2 15 0.217 7
11 Ole Miss 9-4 36.9% 13.2 16 0.211 8
12 Texas Tech 11-2 35.4% 12.1 19 0.217 6
13 Iowa 9-4 33.8% 14.1 13 0.160 13
14 Pittsburgh 9-4 32.5% 13.8 14 0.152 14
15 Missouri 10-4 32.0% 15.6 10 0.129 17
16 Oregon 10-3 31.3% 14.5 12 0.134 16
17 Oregon State 9-4 30.1% 15.4 11 0.116 22
18 Oklahoma State 9-4 28.0% 12.4 18 0.126 18
19 Georgia 10-3 25.3% 10.9 21 0.119 20
20 North Carolina 8-5 23.2% 7.7 30 0.144 15
21 California 9-4 21.5% 10.2 22 0.092 28
22 Cincinnati 11-3 19.6% 8.8 26 0.091 30
23 Wake Forest 8-5 19.0% 8.4 28 0.090 31
24 LSU 8-5 19.0% 9.9 24 0.074 33
25 Virginia Tech 10-4 18.6% 6.1 34 0.118 21
F/+ Rk Team Rec F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
26 Georgia Tech 8-4 18.3% 8.8 25 0.079 32
27 Rutgers 9-4 18.1% 6.6 32 0.105 24
28 Kansas 8-5 16.9% 11.9 20 0.038 45
29 Arizona 8-5 16.9% 5.6 38 0.107 23
30 Boston College 9-5 16.7% 6.1 35 0.097 26
31 West Virginia 9-4 16.6% 5.7 37 0.101 25
32 Michigan State 9-4 16.4% 10.1 23 0.050 42
33 Nebraska 9-4 15.5% 12.7 17 0.021 54
34 South Florida 8-5 15.1% 6.8 31 0.073 34
35 Florida State 9-4 14.4% 3.0 50 0.121 19
36 South Carolina 7-6 13.6% 8.4 27 0.041 44
37 Clemson 7-6 12.6% 5.3 39 0.067 36
38 Southern Miss 7-6 12.5% 5.3 40 0.067 37
39 Tulsa 11-2 12.4% 3.4 48 0.093 27
40 Illinois 5-7 11.2% 7.9 29 0.026 52
41 Connecticut 8-5 10.6% 3.4 47 0.073 35
42 Ball State 12-2 10.5% 2.0 54 0.092 29
43 BYU 10-3 10.1% 4.2 43 0.058 41
44 Wisconsin 7-6 7.9% 6.3 33 0.013 58
45 East Carolina 9-5 6.7% 1.5 58 0.059 39
46 Houston 8-5 6.3% 1.2 62 0.059 40
47 Miami 7-6 6.2% 4.0 44 0.023 53
48 Vanderbilt 7-6 5.7% 3.2 49 0.029 51
49 Rice 10-3 5.5% 2.8 52 0.031 49
50 Tennessee 5-7 5.3% 5.8 36 -0.006 62
F/+ Rk Team Rec F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
51 Northwestern 9-4 4.2% 2.8 53 0.019 55
52 Troy 8-5 4.0% 1.3 61 0.035 46
53 Stanford 5-7 4.0% 3.9 45 0.004 59
54 Navy 8-5 3.8% -1.1 69 0.063 38
55 N.C. State 6-7 3.6% 1.4 60 0.029 50
56 Air Force 8-5 2.3% 1.7 57 0.014 57
57 Virginia 5-7 2.2% 3.9 46 -0.013 64
58 Buffalo 8-6 2.1% -1.0 68 0.045 43
59 Bowling Green 6-6 2.0% -0.2 66 0.034 47
60 Notre Dame 7-6 1.7% -0.2 65 0.031 48
61 Maryland 8-5 1.0% 2.9 51 -0.012 63
62 Baylor 4-8 -0.5% 4.3 42 -0.043 75
63 Arkansas 4-8 -0.9% 4.8 41 -0.053 80
64 Nevada 7-6 -1.3% 1.5 59 -0.017 66
65 Auburn 4-8 -1.5% -1.6 71 0.017 56
66 Purdue 4-8 -2.0% 1.8 56 -0.028 67
67 Minnesota 7-6 -2.5% 1.9 55 -0.033 69
68 Michigan 3-9 -4.5% 0.7 63 -0.038 72
69 New Mexico 4-8 -6.8% 0.5 64 -0.057 81
70 Kentucky 7-6 -7.3% -1.1 70 -0.042 74
71 Temple 5-7 -7.6% -3.6 77 -0.015 65
72 Northern Illinois 6-7 -8.6% -5.7 87 -0.003 60
73 Central Michigan 8-5 -9.1% -5.8 89 -0.005 61
74 Marshall 4-8 -9.4% -3.5 76 -0.033 70
75 UTEP 5-7 -9.5% -2.7 72 -0.044 76
F/+ Rk Team Rec F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
76 Duke 4-8 -9.8% -3.2 75 -0.040 73
77 Arizona State 5-7 -10.8% -4.4 81 -0.035 71
78 Western Michigan 9-4 -11.2% -5.0 84 -0.033 68
79 Fresno State 6-7 -11.6% -4.3 80 -0.044 77
80 Colorado State 7-6 -12.1% -3.0 74 -0.064 84
81 UCLA 4-8 -12.9% -0.7 67 -0.105 93
82 Akron 5-7 -14.1% -6.2 93 -0.046 78
83 Memphis 6-7 -16.0% -7.3 96 -0.052 79
84 Colorado 5-7 -17.3% -4.6 83 -0.095 89
85 Louisville 5-7 -18.1% -5.3 85 -0.092 88
86 Hawaii 7-7 -18.1% -3.0 73 -0.129 100
87 Central Florida 4-8 -18.4% -8.3 100 -0.062 83
88 Kansas State 5-7 -18.5% -5.9 90 -0.089 87
89 UL-Lafayette 6-6 -18.7% -6.4 94 -0.085 85
90 UNLV 5-7 -19.1% -5.3 86 -0.102 92
91 Florida Atlantic 7-6 -19.4% -5.9 91 -0.097 91
92 Ohio 4-8 -20.2% -10.5 106 -0.059 82
93 Utah State 3-9 -20.7% -3.8 78 -0.145 104
94 Syracuse 3-9 -20.9% -5.8 88 -0.114 98
95 Mississippi State 4-8 -22.6% -7.1 95 -0.113 97
96 Louisiana Tech 8-5 -22.7% -8.6 101 -0.096 90
97 Texas A&M 4-8 -22.8% -4.0 79 -0.173 112
98 Indiana 3-9 -23.3% -4.4 82 -0.168 111
99 Florida International 5-7 -24.0% -6.0 92 -0.145 105
100 Arkansas State 6-6 -24.0% -10.6 107 -0.088 86
F/+ Rk Team Rec F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Wyoming 4-8 -27.5% -7.8 97 -0.155 108
102 Middle Tennessee 5-7 -27.8% -12.0 109 -0.108 95
103 Kent State 4-8 -28.0% -12.3 110 -0.107 94
104 San Jose State 6-6 -28.0% -11.8 108 -0.111 96
105 Toledo 3-9 -29.0% -9.2 103 -0.149 106
106 Iowa State 2-10 -29.8% -9.0 102 -0.160 110
107 SMU 1-11 -30.5% -9.8 104 -0.156 109
108 UAB 4-8 -31.4% -12.6 111 -0.132 101
109 Washington 0-12 -33.5% -8.1 98 -0.243 117
110 Army 3-9 -34.4% -15.4 112 -0.133 102
111 Tulane 2-10 -34.8% -9.9 105 -0.206 115
112 Washington State 2-11 -35.3% -8.3 99 -0.295 119
113 UL-Monroe 4-8 -35.7% -19.5 117 -0.123 99
114 Eastern Michigan 3-9 -35.8% -16.3 114 -0.138 103
115 Miami (Ohio) 2-10 -39.1% -18.2 115 -0.151 107
116 San Diego State 3-9 -44.2% -15.8 113 -0.212 116
117 New Mexico State 3-9 -44.4% -18.8 116 -0.185 114
118 Western Kentucky 2-10 -44.7% -21.1 119 -0.176 113
119 North Texas 1-11 -59.7% -20.1 118 -0.322 120
120 Idaho 2-10 -63.0% -24.5 120 -0.285 118