Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2010 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/10/11

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Boise State 12-1 +39.3% +12.9% 9 +25.9% 1 +0.4% 56 305.6 1 0.213 11
2 Alabama 10-3 +37.5% +18.9% 2 +15.6% 5 +2.9% 5 272.9 2 0.281 3
3 Auburn 14-0 +36.5% +24.9% 1 +11.3% 13 +0.3% 60 259.4 6 0.348 1
4 Ohio State 12-1 +33.9% +12.4% 13 +20.2% 2 +1.3% 36 271.8 3 0.234 8
5 TCU 13-0 +33.3% +12.9% 11 +17.8% 3 +2.6% 13 269.2 4 0.229 10
6 Stanford 12-1 +33.2% +17.5% 3 +14.4% 7 +1.3% 37 263.9 5 0.302 2
7 Arkansas 10-3 +28.5% +17.4% 4 +10.4% 19 +0.7% 47 250.5 7 0.245 7
8 Oklahoma 12-2 +28.4% +12.9% 10 +13.9% 9 +1.6% 27 249.7 8 0.231 9
9 Oregon 12-1 +26.5% +9.7% 16 +15.5% 6 +1.3% 34 248.9 9 0.267 4
10 Virginia Tech 11-3 +25.3% +13.7% 7 +7.9% 25 +3.7% 1 241.7 13 0.249 5
11 Oklahoma State 11-2 +24.8% +11.5% 15 +10.5% 18 +2.9% 7 246.3 10 0.184 17
12 Wisconsin 11-2 +24.6% +15.6% 5 +7.3% 29 +1.6% 25 244.3 11 0.211 12
13 Missouri 10-3 +23.3% +9.2% 17 +13.2% 10 +0.9% 43 241.3 14 0.190 14
14 South Carolina 9-5 +21.9% +12.7% 12 +9.7% 22 -0.5% 75 242.4 12 0.185 16
15 LSU 11-2 +21.0% +6.4% 25 +11.2% 15 +3.4% 3 233.3 21 0.247 6
16 Nebraska 10-4 +20.3% +3.5% 40 +14.0% 8 +2.8% 8 234.3 18 0.179 19
17 West Virginia 9-4 +19.9% +2.9% 45 +17.6% 4 -0.7% 82 239.1 15 0.190 14
18 Florida State 10-4 +19.0% +12.1% 14 +4.4% 37 +2.5% 15 232.3 22 0.182 18
19 Texas A&M 9-4 +18.8% +5.7% 33 +12.9% 11 +0.2% 62 236.9 17 0.120 28
20 Notre Dame 8-5 +18.8% +5.2% 37 +11.0% 16 +2.6% 12 238.0 16 0.140 23
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
21 Iowa 8-5 +17.7% +7.7% 22 +9.2% 23 +0.8% 46 231.4 23 0.161 21
22 N.C. State 9-4 +17.2% +5.8% 32 +10.8% 17 +0.5% 54 227.0 29 0.209 13
23 Miami 7-6 +16.8% +5.1% 38 +11.6% 12 +0.1% 68 231.3 24 0.143 22
24 Pittsburgh 8-5 +15.5% +7.8% 21 +7.4% 28 +0.3% 57 231.1 25 0.168 20
25 Michigan State 11-2 +14.8% +7.2% 24 +6.4% 35 +1.2% 40 230.2 27 0.082 39
26 Clemson 6-7 +13.8% +1.2% 52 +11.2% 14 +1.4% 33 218.9 36 0.130 24
27 Nevada 13-1 +12.7% +13.4% 8 -0.9% 58 +0.2% 65 230.4 26 0.107 29
28 Utah 10-3 +11.6% +2.8% 46 +6.7% 32 +2.1% 21 234.0 19 0.052 47
29 Georgia 6-7 +11.6% +6.2% 26 +2.7% 40 +2.7% 11 227.3 28 0.096 34
30 Mississippi State 9-4 +10.9% -1.0% 68 +10.4% 20 +1.5% 30 215.3 40 0.123 27
31 San Diego State 9-4 +10.8% +9.2% 18 +2.5% 43 -0.8% 85 219.5 34 0.080 40
32 Illinois 7-6 +10.4% +1.4% 51 +8.9% 24 +0.1% 66 222.1 33 0.090 35
33 Central Florida 11-3 +10.3% +1.1% 53 +6.5% 34 +2.7% 10 224.2 31 0.084 38
34 Florida 8-5 +9.8% +0.8% 55 +7.3% 30 +1.7% 24 217.0 39 0.087 36
35 Northern Illinois 11-3 +9.7% +7.8% 20 +0.2% 53 +1.6% 26 223.0 32 0.074 41
36 Maryland 9-4 +8.9% +0.5% 61 +7.8% 26 +0.6% 50 213.7 42 0.130 24
37 USC 8-5 +8.6% +6.0% 27 +0.3% 52 +2.2% 19 217.0 38 0.124 26
38 Arizona 7-6 +7.4% +5.9% 30 +3.2% 39 -1.8% 96 224.2 30 0.056 44
39 North Carolina 8-5 +7.0% +3.4% 41 +6.6% 33 -3.0% 110 214.0 41 0.102 31
40 South Florida 8-5 +6.9% -2.0% 71 +7.5% 27 +1.5% 32 206.5 55 0.107 29
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
41 Arizona State 6-6 +6.1% +1.7% 50 +4.5% 36 -0.1% 69 218.2 37 0.086 37
42 Louisville 7-6 +5.7% +2.3% 48 +1.5% 45 +1.9% 23 213.0 45 0.102 31
43 Hawaii 10-4 +5.2% +6.0% 28 +0.8% 51 -1.6% 95 233.6 20 -0.015 61
44 Air Force 9-4 +4.9% +3.3% 44 +1.0% 47 +0.6% 48 209.2 49 0.065 42
45 Southern Miss 8-5 +3.5% +0.8% 56 -0.2% 54 +2.9% 6 206.8 53 0.018 51
46 Oregon State 5-7 +3.4% +3.4% 43 -1.6% 60 +1.6% 29 219.4 35 0.053 45
47 Michigan 7-6 +3.0% +15.1% 6 -9.1% 104 -3.0% 111 213.6 43 0.005 55
48 Penn State 7-6 +2.5% -1.6% 70 +1.7% 44 +2.4% 16 210.1 48 0.004 56
49 Boston College 7-6 +2.4% -8.1% 96 +10.3% 21 +0.2% 64 206.7 54 0.040 50
50 Troy 8-5 +2.3% +3.4% 42 -1.9% 63 +0.8% 44 203.3 63 -0.017 64
51 Navy 9-4 +2.1% +8.6% 19 -3.5% 76 -2.9% 107 204.4 61 0.102 31
52 Cincinnati 4-8 +2.0% +5.5% 35 -3.2% 73 -0.3% 72 209.2 50 0.007 54
53 Tulsa 10-3 +1.8% +3.9% 39 -4.5% 81 +2.4% 18 207.7 52 0.013 53
54 Kentucky 6-7 +1.7% +5.5% 36 -4.0% 77 +0.3% 59 205.2 60 0.053 45
55 Kansas State 7-6 +0.7% +5.9% 31 -7.9% 100 +2.7% 9 200.6 68 0.046 48
56 Texas Tech 8-5 +0.7% +2.6% 47 -0.6% 57 -1.3% 91 206.2 57 -0.020 65
57 Tennessee 6-7 +0.7% +1.0% 54 +0.9% 49 -1.1% 87 208.4 51 -0.013 59
58 BYU 7-6 +0.4% -4.9% 83 +4.0% 38 +1.3% 35 213.0 44 -0.021 66
59 Florida International 7-6 +0.4% +0.5% 63 -0.4% 55 +0.3% 58 198.9 71 0.003 57
60 Ole Miss 4-8 +0.0% +0.1% 64 -0.6% 56 +0.5% 55 201.3 66 -0.015 61
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
61 SMU 7-7 -0.1% +0.5% 62 +2.6% 41 -3.2% 114 211.4 46 -0.029 68
62 Houston 5-7 -0.6% +5.6% 34 -5.5% 87 -0.6% 79 203.1 64 -0.049 74
63 Connecticut 8-5 -1.4% -4.6% 81 +0.8% 50 +2.4% 17 197.7 73 0.044 49
64 Georgia Tech 6-7 -1.8% +2.0% 49 -3.0% 70 -0.7% 83 200.6 67 0.018 51
65 Texas 5-7 -1.9% -8.6% 100 +6.9% 31 -0.3% 71 205.5 59 -0.038 72
66 East Carolina 6-7 -2.2% +7.6% 23 -11.9% 108 +2.1% 22 202.1 65 -0.052 75
67 Syracuse 8-5 -2.4% -3.8% 77 +2.6% 42 -1.2% 89 199.2 69 0.060 43
68 Western Michigan 6-6 -2.5% -2.5% 72 -3.2% 72 +3.3% 4 197.6 74 -0.026 67
69 Arkansas State 4-8 -2.6% +0.8% 58 -2.2% 65 -1.2% 90 192.0 78 -0.014 60
70 Washington 7-6 -3.0% +0.8% 57 -3.2% 71 -0.6% 78 206.4 56 -0.004 58
71 Baylor 7-6 -3.7% +6.0% 29 -7.4% 97 -2.3% 100 210.3 47 -0.048 73
72 Colorado 5-7 -4.7% +0.1% 65 -3.3% 74 -1.5% 92 199.0 70 -0.077 79
73 Northwestern 7-6 -6.4% +0.0% 66 -7.9% 101 +1.5% 31 187.9 87 -0.035 71
74 Fresno State 8-5 -6.5% -3.2% 75 -4.1% 78 +0.8% 45 204.1 62 -0.100 86
75 Temple 8-4 -7.0% -3.4% 76 -3.4% 75 -0.2% 70 198.3 72 -0.031 70
76 Army 7-6 -7.5% -3.0% 74 -5.8% 88 +1.3% 39 190.2 79 -0.015 61
77 California 5-7 -8.0% -8.4% 99 +1.0% 48 -0.5% 77 206.0 58 -0.088 83
78 Duke 3-9 -8.3% -3.8% 78 -6.6% 90 +2.2% 20 190.1 81 -0.063 77
79 UCLA 4-8 -8.3% -7.5% 95 -2.4% 66 +1.6% 28 194.4 76 -0.078 80
80 Ohio 8-5 -8.4% -2.8% 73 -6.7% 91 +1.1% 41 192.4 77 -0.128 94
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
81 Virginia 4-8 -8.6% -1.0% 67 -7.3% 96 -0.3% 73 187.1 88 -0.078 80
82 UAB 4-8 -9.4% -1.5% 69 -4.4% 80 -3.6% 116 189.4 83 -0.089 84
83 Louisiana Tech 5-7 -9.9% -4.9% 82 -8.5% 103 +3.6% 2 190.1 80 -0.112 91
84 Rutgers 4-8 -10.2% -8.7% 103 -2.1% 64 +0.5% 52 179.8 95 -0.030 69
85 Iowa State 5-7 -10.3% -5.6% 87 -5.2% 86 +0.6% 51 188.7 84 -0.087 82
86 Indiana 5-7 -10.3% +0.6% 60 -7.8% 99 -3.2% 113 188.7 85 -0.105 89
87 Minnesota 3-9 -10.4% +0.7% 59 -7.2% 95 -3.8% 117 188.4 86 -0.054 76
88 Purdue 4-8 -10.9% -12.2% 108 +1.1% 46 +0.2% 63 186.1 90 -0.102 87
89 Middle Tennessee 6-7 -11.1% -9.0% 104 -2.7% 67 +0.6% 48 177.9 99 -0.107 90
90 Toledo 8-5 -11.8% -4.3% 79 -4.6% 82 -2.8% 106 196.4 75 -0.126 93
91 North Texas 3-9 -12.2% -4.6% 80 -7.1% 94 -0.5% 76 179.7 96 -0.091 85
92 UL-Monroe 5-7 -12.9% -8.4% 98 -1.4% 59 -3.1% 112 176.5 101 -0.128 94
93 Idaho 6-7 -13.1% -5.3% 85 -7.0% 92 -0.7% 81 187.0 89 -0.155 102
94 Central Michigan 3-9 -13.1% -5.9% 89 -4.7% 83 -2.4% 102 183.3 92 -0.069 78
95 Florida Atlantic 4-8 -13.6% -8.6% 102 -4.3% 79 -0.8% 84 174.6 104 -0.148 99
96 UL-Lafayette 3-9 -14.8% -6.4% 92 -5.1% 85 -3.3% 115 174.4 105 -0.136 97
97 Miami (Ohio) 10-4 -15.5% -9.4% 106 -4.9% 84 -1.2% 88 189.6 82 -0.159 103
98 UTEP 6-7 -15.9% -5.3% 84 -13.1% 115 +2.5% 14 174.2 106 -0.153 101
99 Western Kentucky 2-10 -16.2% -6.4% 91 -7.1% 93 -2.7% 104 171.6 108 -0.102 87
100 Utah State 4-8 -16.2% -5.7% 88 -8.5% 102 -2.0% 98 184.8 91 -0.174 107
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Vanderbilt 2-10 -16.3% -13.8% 114 -2.7% 68 +0.2% 61 174.9 103 -0.144 98
102 Marshall 5-7 -16.4% -11.7% 107 -1.7% 61 -3.0% 109 183.0 93 -0.164 106
103 Wake Forest 3-9 -17.3% -8.3% 97 -7.5% 98 -1.5% 93 178.6 97 -0.161 105
104 Rice 4-8 -17.4% -6.1% 90 -12.3% 112 +1.0% 42 177.6 100 -0.205 112
105 Kent State 5-7 -17.7% -13.6% 113 -1.8% 62 -2.3% 101 181.0 94 -0.124 92
106 Tulane 4-8 -18.4% -6.5% 94 -5.8% 89 -6.0% 120 178.1 98 -0.151 100
107 Washington State 2-10 -20.1% -6.4% 93 -14.9% 118 +1.3% 38 171.8 107 -0.129 96
108 Wyoming 3-9 -22.0% -8.6% 101 -12.8% 113 -0.7% 80 176.2 102 -0.204 111
109 Bowling Green 2-10 -23.0% -13.6% 112 -9.5% 105 +0.1% 67 161.1 114 -0.159 103
110 Buffalo 2-10 -23.4% -19.0% 120 -2.9% 69 -1.6% 94 166.6 112 -0.188 108
111 Kansas 3-9 -23.5% -12.8% 111 -9.7% 106 -1.0% 86 160.6 116 -0.197 110
112 Ball State 4-8 -23.6% -12.2% 109 -11.9% 109 +0.5% 53 162.2 113 -0.194 109
113 San Jose State 1-12 -24.0% -9.3% 105 -11.7% 107 -3.0% 108 170.5 110 -0.208 113
114 Colorado State 3-9 -28.0% -12.8% 110 -13.3% 116 -1.9% 97 171.1 109 -0.291 119
115 Eastern Michigan 2-10 -28.5% -5.6% 86 -18.5% 120 -4.4% 119 169.5 111 -0.239 114
116 UNLV 2-11 -28.6% -14.6% 115 -13.6% 117 -0.3% 74 160.8 115 -0.287 116
117 Akron 1-11 -30.3% -16.0% 116 -12.1% 110 -2.2% 99 155.8 118 -0.241 115
118 Memphis 1-11 -32.5% -16.7% 117 -13.1% 114 -2.7% 103 156.9 117 -0.290 118
119 New Mexico 1-11 -33.9% -17.6% 118 -12.2% 111 -4.1% 118 152.7 119 -0.289 117
120 New Mexico State 2-10 -36.3% -17.9% 119 -15.6% 119 -2.7% 105 152.0 120 -0.305 120