Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

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2011 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/9/12

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Alabama 12-1 +53.9% +17.2% 5 +37.1% 1 -0.4% 72 333.0 1 0.306 3
2 LSU 13-1 +46.8% +16.0% 8 +27.8% 2 +3.1% 6 297.5 2 0.318 1
3 Oklahoma State 12-1 +37.9% +17.2% 4 +18.2% 4 +2.5% 7 266.2 4 0.311 2
4 Oregon 12-2 +33.8% +16.6% 7 +16.2% 12 +1.0% 39 264.6 5 0.232 6
5 Boise State 12-1 +33.0% +12.7% 14 +16.2% 11 +4.1% 1 272.0 3 0.213 8
6 Wisconsin 11-3 +29.3% +26.1% 1 +2.2% 52 +1.0% 40 255.6 6 0.235 5
7 Stanford 11-2 +28.5% +17.0% 6 +11.5% 17 -0.1% 63 252.8 8 0.214 7
8 Oklahoma 10-3 +27.7% +10.2% 20 +16.6% 7 +0.9% 43 252.9 7 0.240 4
9 Michigan 11-2 +26.4% +15.1% 9 +10.7% 18 +0.6% 50 246.9 11 0.202 9
10 Florida State 9-4 +24.2% +1.8% 50 +18.4% 3 +3.9% 2 246.8 12 0.180 12
11 Michigan State 11-3 +23.8% +4.1% 40 +17.9% 5 +1.8% 19 245.3 13 0.187 11
12 USC 10-2 +23.7% +14.1% 12 +8.1% 25 +1.5% 23 239.8 15 0.193 10
13 Notre Dame 8-5 +23.5% +8.8% 22 +14.2% 14 +0.5% 53 248.8 10 0.171 15
14 Georgia 10-4 +22.8% +6.8% 28 +16.5% 10 -0.5% 76 251.2 9 0.152 19
15 Texas A&M 7-6 +21.0% +11.0% 19 +9.4% 22 +0.6% 48 241.3 14 0.170 16
16 Arkansas 11-2 +19.9% +14.1% 11 +3.5% 45 +2.2% 9 234.6 18 0.176 14
17 Houston 13-1 +17.8% +18.4% 3 0.0% 60 -0.6% 78 237.9 16 0.141 22
18 TCU 11-2 +17.6% +11.2% 17 +4.9% 41 +1.5% 22 233.7 19 0.143 21
19 West Virginia 10-3 +16.2% +14.4% 10 +2.9% 48 -1.2% 83 224.4 29 0.170 17
20 South Carolina 11-2 +15.8% +4.8% 36 +14.4% 13 -3.4% 112 235.5 17 0.178 13
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
21 Texas 8-5 +14.7% -3.9% 81 +16.7% 6 +2.0% 15 226.8 27 0.114 28
22 Missouri 8-5 +14.5% +8.5% 24 +5.6% 34 +0.4% 56 223.4 30 0.150 20
23 Cincinnati 10-3 +14.1% +7.6% 25 +4.7% 42 +1.8% 18 215.8 42 0.134 23
24 Virginia Tech 11-3 +14.0% +4.8% 38 +9.5% 21 -0.2% 68 229.5 23 0.117 27
25 Temple 9-4 +13.7% +3.0% 45 +7.5% 29 +3.2% 5 233.6 20 0.076 38
26 Baylor 10-3 +13.5% +24.1% 2 -8.0% 87 -2.7% 105 227.3 25 0.111 29
27 Southern Miss 12-2 +13.4% +1.0% 54 +10.7% 19 +1.7% 20 231.7 21 0.121 25
28 Nebraska 9-4 +13.0% +5.8% 33 +5.1% 38 +2.1% 14 226.1 28 0.110 31
29 Kansas State 10-3 +12.2% +3.0% 44 +7.8% 26 +1.3% 28 206.6 56 0.163 18
30 Rutgers 9-4 +12.1% -3.7% 77 +13.7% 15 +2.1% 12 203.6 58 0.129 24
31 Penn State 9-4 +10.5% -5.8% 89 +16.5% 9 -0.2% 66 228.8 24 0.073 39
32 Miami 6-6 +10.5% +13.0% 13 -3.8% 73 +1.3% 29 213.1 46 0.121 26
33 Clemson 10-4 +10.2% +9.0% 21 +0.2% 59 +1.1% 37 211.9 49 0.091 32
34 Florida 7-6 +9.5% -0.2% 58 +6.0% 33 +3.6% 4 223.2 31 0.059 44
35 South Florida 5-7 +9.4% +2.5% 48 +8.4% 23 -1.4% 86 216.8 38 0.089 34
36 Ohio State 6-7 +9.4% -1.5% 65 +9.6% 20 +1.2% 33 217.2 37 0.089 35
37 Tulsa 8-5 +9.1% +4.8% 37 +3.7% 44 +0.6% 49 230.9 22 0.027 52
38 Toledo 9-4 +8.6% +7.4% 26 +1.1% 56 +0.1% 60 226.8 26 0.089 33
39 Vanderbilt 6-7 +7.7% +3.2% 43 +5.0% 40 -0.5% 73 218.9 36 0.052 45
40 BYU 10-3 +7.2% +0.4% 57 +5.1% 37 +1.7% 21 219.9 33 0.048 46
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
41 Georgia Tech 8-5 +6.8% +12.0% 16 -2.8% 68 -2.4% 100 216.1 41 0.060 43
42 California 7-6 +6.2% -0.4% 59 +6.3% 31 +0.3% 57 219.9 34 0.038 49
43 North Carolina 7-6 +5.9% +2.2% 49 +5.2% 36 -1.5% 89 208.5 52 0.063 41
44 Arizona State 6-7 +5.6% +5.3% 35 -0.9% 63 +1.2% 32 210.0 51 0.060 42
45 Louisville 7-6 +5.3% +0.9% 55 +3.3% 46 +1.2% 34 200.8 65 0.111 30
46 Iowa 7-6 +5.3% +3.4% 41 +1.7% 54 +0.2% 58 207.1 55 0.085 37
47 Pittsburgh 6-7 +5.0% -2.4% 69 +6.1% 32 +1.4% 26 203.0 59 0.086 36
48 Louisiana Tech 8-5 +4.9% -4.4% 83 +8.1% 24 +1.3% 31 214.0 44 0.068 40
49 Mississippi State 7-6 +4.4% -3.9% 80 +7.3% 30 +1.0% 42 213.1 47 0.046 47
50 Northern Illinois 11-3 +4.3% +11.1% 18 -6.4% 80 -0.4% 71 216.8 39 0.024 53
51 Tennessee 5-7 +2.7% -0.7% 60 +5.5% 35 -2.1% 96 213.6 45 0.014 57
52 Central Florida 5-7 +2.2% +0.5% 56 +1.7% 53 -0.1% 62 213.0 48 0.001 63
53 Illinois 7-6 +2.0% -11.8% 107 +16.6% 8 -2.8% 106 219.0 35 0.004 61
54 Connecticut 5-7 +1.4% -7.8% 96 +7.7% 28 +1.4% 24 199.7 69 0.042 48
55 Utah 8-5 +1.2% -12.7% 111 +12.6% 16 +1.4% 25 207.5 53 0.017 54
56 Ohio 10-4 +1.1% +1.5% 51 -1.6% 65 +1.1% 36 205.0 57 0.012 58
57 Virginia 8-5 +0.2% -1.4% 64 +4.2% 43 -2.6% 104 202.9 60 0.014 56
58 N.C. State 8-5 +0.2% -3.2% 73 +5.1% 39 -1.7% 92 193.8 79 0.038 50
59 Northwestern 6-7 -0.1% +8.6% 23 -8.4% 90 -0.3% 69 200.3 67 0.030 51
60 Western Michigan 7-6 -0.4% +5.6% 34 -8.5% 91 +2.5% 8 211.0 50 0.008 59
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
61 SMU 8-5 -0.7% -0.9% 61 +1.0% 57 -0.8% 81 216.7 40 -0.028 70
62 Nevada 7-6 -0.9% +4.6% 39 -2.0% 67 -3.5% 113 220.3 32 -0.031 71
63 Arkansas State 10-3 -1.2% -3.6% 76 +1.4% 55 +1.0% 38 214.1 43 -0.038 73
64 Wake Forest 6-7 -1.3% +2.6% 47 -3.3% 69 -0.7% 79 194.0 78 0.015 55
65 Auburn 8-5 -1.3% +3.3% 42 -8.3% 89 +3.6% 3 201.5 62 -0.011 66
66 Utah State 7-6 -1.5% +6.6% 29 -3.6% 72 -4.5% 119 207.5 54 -0.006 65
67 Washington 7-6 -2.2% +7.3% 27 -10.8% 100 +1.4% 27 199.8 68 -0.026 68
68 Air Force 7-6 -2.6% +6.1% 32 -7.2% 82 -1.6% 91 202.8 61 -0.073 79
69 Florida International 8-5 -2.8% -7.8% 95 +2.8% 49 +2.1% 11 200.9 64 -0.026 69
70 San Diego State 8-5 -3.2% -1.8% 66 -1.1% 64 -0.3% 70 200.5 66 -0.051 75
71 Syracuse 5-7 -3.3% -2.1% 68 +0.3% 58 -1.5% 90 189.5 87 0.003 62
72 Iowa State 6-7 -3.6% -6.7% 92 +3.2% 47 -0.1% 64 191.5 83 0.006 60
73 Navy 5-7 -3.8% +12.2% 15 -14.1% 113 -1.9% 95 199.6 70 -0.018 67
74 Boston College 4-8 -6.4% -9.1% 101 +2.3% 51 +0.5% 54 186.4 94 -0.006 64
75 Duke 3-9 -7.6% +1.3% 53 -9.9% 95 +1.0% 41 187.4 89 -0.037 72
76 Purdue 7-6 -7.8% -4.7% 86 -5.3% 75 +2.2% 10 194.5 77 -0.066 78
77 Bowling Green 5-7 -8.1% -3.0% 72 -5.9% 77 +0.7% 47 197.5 74 -0.092 90
78 Texas Tech 5-7 -8.2% +6.2% 31 -14.4% 115 +0.0% 61 197.6 73 -0.058 77
79 Arizona 4-8 -8.2% +6.3% 30 -11.5% 105 -3.0% 109 201.4 63 -0.045 74
80 Miami (Ohio) 4-8 -8.3% -4.5% 84 -0.9% 61 -3.0% 108 199.0 71 -0.055 76
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
81 East Carolina 5-7 -9.4% -4.5% 85 -3.4% 71 -1.4% 88 196.8 75 -0.106 92
82 San Jose State 5-7 -9.7% -10.8% 104 -0.9% 62 +2.0% 16 186.7 92 -0.074 82
83 UL-Lafayette 9-4 -9.8% -2.0% 67 -7.6% 85 -0.2% 65 194.8 76 -0.073 80
84 Marshall 7-6 -10.6% -8.2% 98 -1.8% 66 -0.6% 77 192.4 80 -0.081 85
85 UCLA 6-8 -10.8% +1.5% 52 -10.8% 99 -1.4% 87 198.0 72 -0.109 93
86 Kentucky 5-7 -10.9% -13.5% 112 +2.5% 50 +0.1% 59 187.2 90 -0.086 88
87 Hawaii 6-7 -11.3% -2.5% 70 -10.1% 96 +1.3% 30 191.3 84 -0.078 83
88 Oregon State 3-9 -11.5% -9.0% 100 -3.3% 70 +0.8% 46 190.6 86 -0.097 91
89 UL-Monroe 4-8 -11.6% -3.8% 79 -3.8% 74 -3.9% 117 191.9 82 -0.083 86
90 Kent State 5-7 -12.4% -20.7% 118 +7.7% 27 +0.5% 52 192.1 81 -0.155 102
91 Fresno State 4-9 -12.8% +2.7% 46 -13.0% 110 -2.5% 101 189.1 88 -0.079 84
92 Maryland 2-10 -12.9% -3.6% 75 -6.8% 81 -2.5% 102 183.8 97 -0.073 81
93 Western Kentucky 7-5 -13.1% -8.0% 97 -5.9% 76 +0.8% 45 181.8 98 -0.085 87
94 Washington State 4-8 -13.3% -0.9% 62 -9.5% 94 -2.9% 107 185.2 96 -0.086 89
95 Ball State 6-6 -14.6% -2.8% 71 -12.7% 109 +0.8% 44 186.6 93 -0.128 94
96 UTEP 5-7 -14.6% -1.1% 63 -14.0% 112 +0.5% 51 191.1 85 -0.133 97
97 Minnesota 3-9 -15.3% -5.5% 88 -10.9% 101 +1.1% 35 185.3 95 -0.162 104
98 Central Michigan 3-9 -16.2% -3.7% 78 -11.2% 103 -1.2% 84 178.6 106 -0.129 95
99 Army 3-9 -16.4% -4.9% 87 -7.4% 84 -4.1% 118 187.1 91 -0.171 106
100 Ole Miss 2-10 -16.6% -12.5% 110 -6.2% 78 +2.1% 13 180.9 99 -0.143 98
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Rice 4-8 -16.7% -10.5% 102 -8.1% 88 +1.8% 17 180.6 100 -0.131 96
102 Eastern Michigan 6-6 -16.9% -10.5% 103 -6.2% 79 -0.2% 67 179.6 104 -0.144 99
103 Buffalo 3-9 -18.9% -6.2% 91 -10.1% 97 -2.6% 103 180.4 101 -0.149 100
104 Wyoming 8-5 -19.4% -7.0% 93 -10.2% 98 -2.2% 97 179.8 102 -0.151 101
105 Indiana 1-11 -21.5% -3.9% 82 -16.2% 117 -1.3% 85 167.8 112 -0.167 105
106 Colorado State 3-9 -22.2% -11.9% 108 -9.2% 92 -1.1% 82 170.5 111 -0.158 103
107 Troy 3-9 -22.3% -11.0% 105 -9.5% 93 -1.8% 94 172.6 110 -0.192 110
108 UAB 3-9 -22.4% -3.3% 74 -18.6% 120 -0.5% 74 173.9 108 -0.199 111
109 New Mexico State 4-9 -22.5% -7.4% 94 -11.5% 106 -3.6% 114 177.5 107 -0.190 109
110 Colorado 3-10 -22.7% -5.9% 90 -13.1% 111 -3.6% 115 179.5 105 -0.179 108
111 North Texas 5-7 -23.3% -11.6% 106 -12.1% 107 +0.4% 55 179.6 103 -0.207 112
112 Kansas 2-10 -23.6% -8.8% 99 -11.5% 104 -3.4% 111 172.9 109 -0.219 114
113 Idaho 2-10 -26.3% -17.7% 115 -7.9% 86 -0.7% 80 166.1 113 -0.174 107
114 Tulane 2-11 -29.2% -15.1% 113 -10.9% 102 -3.2% 110 159.5 115 -0.210 113
115 Middle Tennessee 2-10 -29.5% -12.2% 109 -14.9% 116 -2.4% 99 161.4 114 -0.240 116
116 Florida Atlantic 1-11 -32.8% -21.6% 120 -7.3% 83 -3.9% 116 153.5 117 -0.235 115
117 UNLV 2-10 -33.0% -16.1% 114 -16.3% 118 -0.5% 75 158.7 116 -0.300 119
118 Akron 1-11 -35.4% -21.0% 119 -12.2% 108 -2.2% 97 146.0 119 -0.274 118
119 Memphis 2-10 -35.9% -20.1% 117 -14.1% 114 -1.7% 93 146.4 118 -0.245 117
120 New Mexico 1-11 -44.4% -20.1% 116 -17.7% 119 -6.6% 120 145.0 120 -0.381 120