Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2013 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/6/14

Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Last
Week
Change Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Florida State 14-0 49.2% 1 0 21.5% 3 25.7% 1 2.0% 27 310.3 1 0.319 1
2 Alabama 11-2 42.3% 2 0 17.8% 10 19.3% 7 5.2% 1 270.9 2 0.289 3
3 Stanford 11-3 40.0% 3 0 13.3% 18 21.6% 4 5.1% 2 257.7 4 0.311 2
4 Auburn 12-2 35.1% 4 0 19.5% 7 12.3% 18 3.3% 7 251.7 7 0.271 4
5 Oregon 11-2 33.3% 8 3 20.0% 6 11.2% 22 2.1% 26 251.4 10 0.254 7
6 Michigan State 13-1 32.1% 9 3 4.8% 43 25.3% 2 2.0% 29 251.4 8 0.252 8
7 Baylor 11-2 30.4% 7 0 20.5% 4 10.7% 25 -0.9% 88 262.4 3 0.235 11
8 Oklahoma State 10-3 30.0% 11 3 10.2% 26 20.4% 6 -0.7% 85 243.4 15 0.245 9
9 Ohio State 12-2 29.9% 5 -4 22.1% 2 3.9% 45 3.9% 5 251.0 11 0.216 13
10 South Carolina 11-2 29.8% 14 4 20.2% 5 12.9% 16 -3.3% 114 248.8 12 0.257 6
11 USC 10-4 29.0% 12 1 6.5% 37 21.5% 5 1.0% 46 245.9 13 0.184 20
12 Louisville 12-1 29.0% 16 4 11.8% 23 15.1% 10 2.0% 28 257.3 5 0.181 21
13 Arizona State 10-4 28.5% 6 -7 17.7% 11 10.4% 26 0.3% 60 242.7 16 0.239 10
14 Missouri 12-2 28.5% 17 3 13.3% 17 15.1% 11 0.1% 65 245.4 14 0.263 5
15 UCLA 10-3 27.8% 13 -2 14.4% 15 10.9% 23 2.5% 18 236.3 22 0.229 12
16 Clemson 11-2 26.6% 15 -1 13.0% 19 14.0% 13 -0.4% 78 256.7 6 0.170 22
17 LSU 10-3 26.4% 18 1 18.0% 9 5.6% 36 2.9% 10 238.5 19 0.213 15
18 Washington 9-4 26.3% 19 1 12.1% 22 11.8% 21 2.4% 19 235.9 23 0.202 16
19 Wisconsin 9-4 26.2% 10 -9 9.5% 28 15.8% 9 0.9% 50 251.4 9 0.186 19
20 Oklahoma 11-2 24.7% 23 3 12.2% 21 10.9% 24 1.6% 37 232.7 24 0.215 14
21 Central Florida 12-1 23.8% 24 3 16.4% 13 5.2% 38 2.2% 23 237.7 20 0.193 17
22 Georgia 8-5 22.3% 20 -2 18.7% 8 3.5% 46 0.1% 66 241.4 17 0.192 18
23 Texas A&M 9-4 21.2% 22 -1 24.0% 1 -5.1% 86 2.3% 21 239.5 18 0.162 24
24 Kansas State 8-5 20.5% 27 3 14.4% 14 4.4% 43 1.8% 33 227.3 31 0.160 25
25 Arizona 8-5 18.1% 30 5 10.4% 25 10.4% 27 -2.7% 106 224.6 33 0.154 26
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Last
Week
Change Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
26 Notre Dame 9-4 17.5% 25 -1 11.6% 24 6.4% 33 -0.5% 82 222.8 34 0.163 23
27 Virginia Tech 8-5 17.1% 21 -6 -5.9% 85 23.3% 3 -0.3% 75 236.7 21 0.123 29
28 Ole Miss 8-5 16.1% 35 7 5.3% 41 12.0% 20 -1.2% 92 229.5 29 0.136 28
29 Iowa 8-5 15.1% 28 -1 0.5% 60 13.9% 14 0.7% 52 232.6 25 0.113 31
30 BYU 8-5 14.9% 26 -4 2.8% 51 13.8% 15 -1.7% 95 230.7 27 0.138 27
31 Utah 5-7 13.9% 34 3 5.1% 42 7.3% 30 1.5% 39 219.5 39 0.114 30
32 Utah State 9-5 13.7% 33 1 -7.4% 93 18.3% 8 2.8% 12 231.8 26 0.083 39
33 Mississippi State 7-6 12.6% 43 10 2.9% 50 12.1% 19 -2.4% 102 230.0 28 0.100 32
34 Georgia Tech 7-6 12.1% 31 -3 8.3% 31 1.5% 57 2.2% 22 222.1 35 0.089 35
35 Texas 8-5 12.0% 39 4 4.1% 46 6.1% 35 1.8% 31 213.5 48 0.087 37
36 Miami 9-4 10.8% 29 -7 17.3% 12 -7.6% 91 1.1% 42 229.2 30 0.067 42
37 Michigan 7-6 10.2% 32 -5 5.3% 40 4.5% 40 0.3% 61 216.4 44 0.088 36
38 North Carolina 7-6 10.1% 40 2 6.8% 35 2.3% 49 1.0% 48 221.8 37 0.067 43
39 Nebraska 9-4 9.1% 45 6 0.4% 61 7.2% 32 1.5% 38 211.2 54 0.062 46
40 East Carolina 10-3 8.8% 38 -2 7.4% 34 2.2% 51 -0.8% 87 221.9 36 0.067 41
41 Duke 10-4 8.5% 36 -5 7.5% 33 -0.2% 62 1.2% 40 216.1 46 0.097 33
42 Oregon State 7-6 8.5% 50 8 6.5% 36 2.3% 50 -0.3% 73 213.3 50 0.087 38
43 Texas Tech 8-5 8.0% 60 17 12.3% 20 -0.9% 69 -3.4% 116 216.4 45 0.066 44
44 TCU 4-8 7.1% 47 3 -7.9% 94 14.5% 12 0.5% 55 217.8 43 0.041 50
45 Boise State 8-5 7.0% 37 -8 3.9% 47 -1.5% 72 4.7% 3 221.0 38 0.027 57
46 Houston 8-5 6.8% 42 -4 -2.3% 68 7.9% 28 1.1% 43 212.9 52 0.094 34
47 Bowling Green 10-4 6.4% 41 -6 5.9% 38 -2.5% 76 3.0% 9 224.7 32 0.071 40
48 Florida 4-8 6.1% 46 -2 -8.9% 99 12.9% 17 2.2% 24 213.5 49 0.042 49
49 Fresno State 11-2 6.0% 44 -5 9.9% 27 -1.3% 70 -2.6% 105 218.8 40 0.032 53
50 Vanderbilt 9-4 5.9% 53 3 1.4% 55 2.6% 48 1.9% 30 204.7 64 0.062 45
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Last
Week
Change Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
51 North Texas 9-4 4.9% 49 -2 -5.0% 80 7.3% 31 2.6% 16 218.7 41 0.022 58
52 Marshall 10-4 4.4% 51 -1 8.6% 30 -3.1% 78 -1.1% 89 213.2 51 0.045 48
53 Washington State 6-7 3.7% 58 5 1.5% 54 1.6% 54 0.6% 53 207.4 60 0.028 56
54 Pittsburgh 7-6 3.6% 59 5 0.6% 58 5.4% 37 -2.4% 103 218.1 42 0.032 52
55 Minnesota 8-5 2.8% 48 -7 -3.2% 73 3.3% 47 2.8% 13 198.2 74 0.030 55
56 Indiana 5-7 2.3% 56 0 14.0% 16 -11.1% 106 -0.6% 84 214.5 47 0.002 61
57 Ball State 10-3 2.3% 52 -5 4.7% 44 -4.6% 85 2.1% 25 207.4 59 0.012 59
58 Navy 9-4 2.2% 66 8 8.2% 32 -8.8% 97 2.9% 11 205.8 62 0.033 51
59 Northwestern 5-7 2.0% 57 -2 -2.1% 67 4.4% 42 -0.3% 72 208.9 57 0.011 60
60 Northern Illinois 12-2 1.2% 61 1 4.2% 45 -2.0% 74 -1.1% 90 205.4 63 0.049 47
61 Penn State 7-5 -0.1% 62 1 -3.1% 72 6.2% 34 -3.1% 112 211.2 53 -0.015 65
62 Toledo 7-5 -0.2% 63 1 2.6% 52 -6.5% 89 3.7% 6 211.1 55 0.000 62
63 Maryland 7-6 -1.4% 65 2 -3.6% 75 -0.3% 64 2.6% 17 208.3 58 -0.046 71
64 Cincinnati 9-4 -1.5% 64 0 2.3% 53 2.0% 52 -5.7% 123 209.7 56 0.030 54
65 Boston College 7-6 -2.2% 54 -11 2.9% 49 -7.8% 92 2.7% 14 206.9 61 -0.045 70
66 Colorado State 8-6 -2.6% 68 2 -3.7% 76 0.8% 60 0.3% 61 203.4 66 0.000 63
67 UTSA 7-5 -2.7% 67 0 0.9% 56 -0.8% 68 -2.7% 106 204.2 65 -0.039 69
68 South Alabama 6-6 -2.9% 71 3 0.7% 57 -3.5% 80 0.0% 70 199.2 72 -0.012 64
69 Rice 10-4 -3.1% 55 -14 -2.4% 69 -2.3% 75 1.6% 36 201.6 68 -0.035 68
70 Tulane 7-6 -3.7% 72 2 -11.6% 105 7.4% 29 0.5% 56 199.1 73 -0.028 67
71 Illinois 4-8 -4.0% 70 -1 5.7% 39 -10.0% 100 0.3% 58 200.1 71 -0.055 77
72 Tennessee 5-7 -5.2% 75 3 -6.8% 89 1.2% 58 0.4% 57 203.3 67 -0.049 74
73 Florida Atlantic 6-6 -5.4% 73 0 -7.9% 95 4.2% 44 -1.7% 94 200.2 70 -0.048 73
74 San Jose State 6-6 -6.1% 74 0 9.0% 29 -13.2% 112 -1.9% 99 201.4 69 -0.070 85
75 Syracuse 7-6 -6.2% 76 1 -5.6% 83 -0.3% 63 -0.3% 77 198.0 75 -0.078 86
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Last
Week
Change Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
76 West Virginia 4-8 -6.6% 80 4 -7.2% 92 -0.4% 65 0.9% 49 183.5 98 -0.016 66
77 Western Kentucky 8-4 -6.7% 82 5 -5.5% 82 -1.8% 73 0.5% 54 197.3 77 -0.069 82
78 Iowa State 3-9 -7.4% 81 3 -5.1% 81 -4.0% 81 1.7% 34 187.5 90 -0.047 72
79 Virginia 2-10 -7.7% 77 -2 -11.9% 108 4.6% 39 -0.4% 79 197.9 76 -0.066 81
80 Buffalo 8-5 -7.8% 69 -11 -6.6% 86 -1.5% 71 0.3% 63 196.8 78 -0.069 83
81 Wake Forest 4-8 -8.5% 79 -2 -12.9% 112 4.5% 41 0.0% 69 194.9 81 -0.060 80
82 Hawaii 1-11 -8.7% 84 2 -8.9% 98 -0.7% 67 1.0% 47 186.6 92 -0.079 87
83 Memphis 3-9 -9.0% 83 0 -11.8% 107 0.1% 61 2.7% 15 192.7 83 -0.053 76
84 SMU 5-7 -9.7% 86 2 -2.8% 71 -3.4% 79 -3.4% 115 194.6 82 -0.052 75
85 Middle Tennessee 8-5 -9.8% 78 -7 -4.9% 79 -4.5% 84 -0.4% 80 189.4 88 -0.058 78
86 UL-Lafayette 9-4 -9.8% 88 2 -1.5% 66 -9.0% 98 0.8% 51 189.7 87 -0.059 79
87 Arkansas 3-9 -10.1% 87 0 -1.5% 65 -8.0% 94 -0.6% 83 195.2 80 -0.093 89
88 Nevada 4-8 -10.5% 85 -3 3.5% 48 -15.0% 117 1.0% 45 195.3 79 -0.106 92
89 San Diego State 8-5 -11.7% 94 5 -10.8% 102 1.6% 55 -2.4% 104 192.6 84 -0.093 88
90 Arkansas State 8-5 -12.1% 93 3 -8.2% 96 -8.1% 95 4.2% 4 186.9 91 -0.102 91
91 Rutgers 6-7 -12.4% 90 -1 -7.1% 91 -8.5% 96 3.3% 8 185.1 94 -0.118 94
92 N.C. State 3-9 -12.6% 89 -3 -9.7% 100 -2.9% 77 0.0% 68 192.5 85 -0.130 98
93 Connecticut 3-9 -13.2% 91 -2 -11.9% 109 1.0% 59 -2.3% 101 183.6 97 -0.113 93
94 Tulsa 3-9 -13.5% 92 -2 -12.2% 110 1.9% 53 -3.2% 113 191.6 86 -0.093 90
95 Colorado 4-8 -14.8% 96 1 -6.7% 87 -6.2% 88 -1.9% 97 181.9 101 -0.152 104
96 UNLV 7-6 -15.3% 95 -1 -5.7% 84 -5.3% 87 -4.3% 118 187.6 89 -0.125 96
97 Kentucky 2-10 -16.1% 100 3 -3.3% 74 -12.0% 109 -0.8% 86 185.3 93 -0.121 95
98 Temple 2-10 -16.1% 97 -1 -0.2% 63 -13.6% 116 -2.2% 100 179.7 103 -0.070 84
99 South Florida 2-10 -17.3% 98 -1 -20.5% 123 1.6% 56 1.6% 35 179.1 104 -0.133 99
100 Army 2-10 -17.6% 99 -1 -2.7% 70 -13.0% 111 -1.9% 98 171.8 110 -0.127 97
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Last
Week
Change Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Kansas 3-9 -19.0% 101 0 -18.5% 119 -0.5% 66 0.0% 67 170.0 111 -0.137 101
102 Wyoming 5-7 -19.9% 103 1 -4.0% 77 -10.3% 101 -5.6% 122 184.4 95 -0.146 102
103 California 1-11 -20.2% 105 2 -6.7% 88 -10.0% 99 -3.4% 116 179.9 102 -0.166 106
104 Ohio 7-6 -20.2% 104 0 -9.7% 101 -12.8% 110 2.3% 20 184.2 96 -0.190 110
105 Troy 6-6 -20.7% 106 1 0.3% 62 -20.6% 120 -0.3% 76 183.3 99 -0.158 105
106 Kent State 4-8 -20.8% 102 -4 -7.0% 90 -13.2% 113 -0.5% 81 177.4 106 -0.134 100
107 Texas State 6-6 -21.6% 108 1 -18.6% 120 -4.2% 82 1.2% 41 174.1 108 -0.215 115
108 Akron 5-7 -21.8% 107 -1 -14.7% 114 -4.3% 83 -2.9% 110 183.0 100 -0.146 103
109 UL-Monroe 6-6 -23.4% 111 2 -11.2% 104 -6.9% 90 -5.3% 121 176.6 107 -0.167 107
110 New Mexico 3-9 -23.8% 109 -1 0.6% 59 -26.2% 125 1.8% 32 179.1 105 -0.185 109
111 Central Michigan 6-6 -25.1% 110 -1 -11.8% 106 -13.5% 115 0.1% 64 167.6 113 -0.207 112
112 Louisiana Tech 5-7 -26.4% 112 0 -15.1% 116 -11.0% 104 -0.3% 73 161.3 116 -0.183 108
113 Air Force 2-10 -26.5% 113 0 -1.1% 64 -24.1% 122 -1.3% 93 171.9 109 -0.235 117
114 Purdue 1-11 -27.3% 114 0 -14.6% 113 -11.5% 107 -1.2% 91 167.7 112 -0.214 114
115 UAB 2-10 -28.8% 115 0 -4.8% 78 -23.9% 121 -0.1% 71 165.5 114 -0.210 113
116 Idaho 1-11 -30.9% 116 0 -17.4% 117 -10.7% 103 -2.8% 109 162.7 115 -0.242 119
117 Western Michigan 1-11 -31.5% 117 0 -18.3% 118 -7.9% 93 -5.3% 120 159.8 117 -0.217 116
118 Massachusetts 1-11 -32.7% 119 1 -19.8% 122 -11.0% 105 -1.9% 96 152.1 121 -0.255 121
119 UTEP 2-10 -32.8% 118 -1 -8.6% 97 -24.5% 124 0.3% 58 159.0 118 -0.254 120
120 Southern Miss 1-11 -32.8% 120 0 -19.8% 121 -10.3% 102 -2.8% 108 158.0 119 -0.279 123
121 Georgia State 0-12 -33.1% 121 0 -14.8% 115 -15.2% 118 -3.1% 111 151.9 122 -0.207 111
122 New Mexico State 2-10 -34.9% 122 0 -12.8% 111 -15.6% 119 -6.4% 124 151.1 123 -0.240 118
123 Miami (Ohio) 0-12 -36.5% 123 0 -25.9% 125 -11.6% 108 1.1% 44 142.7 125 -0.261 122
124 Eastern Michigan 2-10 -42.1% 124 0 -11.2% 103 -24.2% 123 -6.7% 125 154.1 120 -0.345 125
125 Florida International 1-11 -42.5% 125 0 -24.0% 124 -13.3% 114 -5.3% 119 143.0 124 -0.285 124