Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2017 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 9/23/17

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Alabama 4-0 3.8 (-0.2) 99.6% 31.1 1 40.0 6 9.5 1 0.6 27 1 0
Ohio State 3-1 3.1 (0.1) 98.3% 24.9 2 41.1 4 17.0 9 0.8 4 3 1
Florida State 0-2 0.5 (0.5) 97.2% 22.6 3 38.1 14 15.4 6 -0.1 73 2 -1
Oklahoma 4-0 3.8 (-0.2) 96.5% 21.5 4 48.7 1 26.5 55 -0.7 112 5 1
Wisconsin 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 96.5% 21.5 5 35.5 27 14.0 4 0.1 64 8 3
Clemson 4-0 3.9 (-0.1) 96.4% 21.5 6 35.7 25 13.6 3 -0.7 108 6 0
Penn State 4-0 3.7 (-0.3) 96.3% 21.3 7 40.0 7 18.4 12 -0.3 86 4 -3
Washington 4-0 3.8 (-0.2) 95.7% 20.4 8 39.6 8 18.7 13 -0.4 92 7 -1
Michigan 4-0 3.8 (-0.2) 94.4% 19.1 9 32.0 45 13.2 2 0.2 53 11 2
USC 4-0 3.6 (-0.4) 93.7% 18.4 10 39.1 9 21.4 19 0.7 19 10 0
Miami-FL 2-0 2.0 (0.0) 93.6% 18.3 11 37.1 18 19.4 14 0.5 35 15 4
LSU 3-1 2.8 (-0.2) 93.2% 18.0 12 35.0 29 16.3 7 -0.7 115 9 -3
Auburn 3-1 3.0 (0.0) 93.0% 17.8 13 31.7 48 14.3 5 0.4 44 12 -1
Georgia 4-0 3.7 (-0.3) 92.0% 17.0 14 32.5 43 16.4 8 0.8 1 19 5
Oklahoma State 3-1 3.4 (0.4) 91.8% 16.9 15 43.7 2 27.3 61 0.5 33 13 -2
Stanford 2-2 2.7 (0.7) 91.0% 16.3 16 37.8 17 22.3 22 0.8 9 14 -2
TCU 4-0 3.5 (-0.5) 90.6% 16.0 17 38.3 13 22.9 26 0.6 24 16 -1
Louisville 3-1 2.6 (-0.4) 89.3% 15.2 18 38.5 12 23.9 29 0.6 22 20 2
Notre Dame 3-1 3.1 (0.1) 89.3% 15.2 19 36.2 23 21.3 18 0.3 50 18 -1
Virginia Tech 4-0 3.6 (-0.4) 85.9% 13.3 20 30.3 56 17.1 11 0.1 58 25 5
Washington State 4-0 3.5 (-0.5) 85.3% 13.0 21 36.5 22 24.0 30 0.5 29 30 9
Ole Miss 2-1 2.6 (0.6) 84.7% 12.8 22 39.0 10 26.3 52 0.1 65 22 0
Florida 2-1 1.1 (-0.9) 83.7% 12.3 23 28.9 69 17.0 10 0.4 43 21 -2
Mississippi State 3-1 3.0 (0.0) 82.5% 11.8 24 34.0 37 23.0 27 0.8 10 17 -7
Texas 1-2 1.2 (0.2) 82.5% 11.8 25 36.5 21 24.1 33 -0.7 110 23 -2
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Oregon 3-1 3.7 (0.7) 81.4% 11.3 26 40.1 5 27.9 66 -0.9 125 24 -2
South Florida 4-0 3.9 (-0.1) 78.1% 10.0 27 34.9 31 25.3 42 0.4 45 46 19
Kansas State 2-1 2.4 (0.4) 77.5% 9.8 28 35.6 26 25.5 45 -0.3 84 29 1
Georgia Tech 2-1 2.5 (0.5) 76.8% 9.5 29 34.3 34 24.4 34 -0.4 90 32 3
Texas A&M 3-1 2.6 (-0.4) 75.6% 9.1 30 34.9 30 26.4 54 0.6 23 26 -4
Tennessee 3-1 2.9 (-0.1) 74.8% 8.8 31 33.5 40 25.1 41 0.5 40 31 0
NC State 3-1 3.2 (0.2) 74.5% 8.7 32 34.4 33 25.0 39 -0.6 107 27 -5
Utah 4-0 3.7 (-0.3) 74.0% 8.5 33 31.3 50 23.5 28 0.8 13 37 4
Houston 2-1 2.0 (0.0) 73.6% 8.4 34 29.7 60 21.8 21 0.5 34 33 -1
Wake Forest 4-0 3.2 (-0.8) 72.5% 8.0 35 28.3 79 20.2 16 -0.1 70 36 1
Arkansas 1-2 1.6 (0.6) 71.4% 7.6 36 34.3 36 25.8 49 -0.8 119 35 -1
Michigan State 2-1 2.1 (0.1) 69.2% 6.9 37 28.6 77 22.4 24 0.7 16 39 2
Boise State 2-2 2.3 (0.3) 68.6% 6.7 38 31.4 49 25.4 43 0.8 5 28 -10
Minnesota 3-0 2.8 (-0.2) 67.4% 6.4 39 25.7 94 19.9 15 0.6 26 48 9
Northwestern 2-1 1.8 (-0.2) 67.4% 6.4 40 31.2 51 24.8 35 -0.1 69 43 3
UCLA 2-2 2.4 (0.4) 66.2% 6.0 41 38.1 15 31.7 84 -0.4 91 34 -7
Nebraska 2-2 2.3 (0.3) 66.0% 5.9 42 28.4 78 22.7 25 0.2 54 44 2
Iowa 3-1 2.7 (-0.3) 65.5% 5.8 43 27.2 84 21.6 20 0.3 49 42 -1
Appalachian State 2-2 2.6 (0.6) 65.3% 5.7 44 29.9 59 24.0 32 -0.1 77 51 7
Indiana 2-1 1.8 (-0.2) 65.1% 5.7 45 28.9 72 24.0 31 0.8 7 53 8
Duke 4-0 3.0 (-1.0) 64.6% 5.5 46 32.2 44 26.2 50 -0.6 100 49 3
West Virginia 3-1 3.3 (0.3) 64.4% 5.5 47 38.0 16 31.9 85 -0.6 103 58 11
North Carolina 1-3 1.9 (0.9) 64.0% 5.3 48 33.5 39 28.6 71 0.4 41 45 -3
Iowa State 2-1 2.3 (0.3) 63.6% 5.2 49 37.1 19 32.3 88 0.5 39 52 3
Colorado 3-1 2.6 (-0.4) 63.4% 5.2 50 30.2 57 25.8 48 0.8 3 41 -9
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Syracuse 2-2 2.3 (0.3) 61.1% 4.5 51 30.5 54 26.8 57 0.8 2 50 -1
Baylor 0-4 1.4 (1.4) 60.9% 4.4 52 33.6 38 29.6 75 0.5 38 40 -12
Colorado State 2-2 2.2 (0.2) 60.2% 4.2 53 34.3 35 30.6 79 0.5 28 57 4
Toledo 3-1 2.8 (-0.2) 59.6% 4.0 54 38.6 11 35.1 109 0.5 32 47 -7
Texas Tech 3-0 2.7 (-0.3) 58.6% 3.8 55 41.3 3 36.7 119 -0.8 123 55 0
Memphis 3-0 1.9 (-1.1) 58.4% 3.7 56 36.6 20 33.5 96 0.6 25 60 4
Vanderbilt 3-1 2.6 (-0.4) 57.5% 3.4 57 24.8 98 20.5 17 -0.9 129 38 -19
South Carolina 3-1 2.3 (-0.7) 57.4% 3.4 58 28.9 71 24.8 36 -0.7 114 54 -4
Central Florida 2-0 2.0 (0.0) 56.8% 3.3 59 28.8 74 25.0 38 -0.6 101 67 8
Arizona 2-2 2.5 (0.5) 55.9% 3.0 60 31.7 47 28.2 69 -0.5 98 59 -1
San Diego State 4-0 2.2 (-1.8) 55.6% 2.9 61 28.9 70 26.3 51 0.3 47 61 0
Virginia 3-1 3.2 (0.2) 55.2% 2.8 62 29.0 68 25.4 44 -0.8 117 68 6
Kentucky 3-1 2.0 (-1.0) 52.7% 2.1 63 29.9 58 28.1 68 0.4 46 56 -7
SMU 3-1 3.0 (0.0) 51.9% 1.9 64 35.2 28 33.3 94 -0.1 72 72 8
California 3-1 2.1 (-0.9) 50.7% 1.5 65 32.9 41 31.1 81 -0.3 88 62 -3
Maryland 2-1 1.9 (-0.1) 50.0% 1.3 66 29.0 67 27.2 60 -0.5 96 63 -3
Western Kentucky 2-2 1.8 (-0.2) 49.2% 1.1 67 28.9 73 28.5 70 0.8 8 66 -1
UTSA 3-0 2.8 (-0.2) 48.4% 0.9 68 27.4 81 27.1 58 0.7 20 75 7
Troy 3-1 2.4 (-0.6) 46.4% 0.3 69 26.8 87 25.8 47 -0.7 113 73 4
Arizona State 2-2 1.5 (-0.5) 46.3% 0.3 70 36.1 24 35.6 113 -0.2 80 65 -5
Southern Miss 2-1 2.6 (0.6) 45.0% -0.1 71 27.3 82 26.6 56 -0.8 118 70 -1
Purdue 2-2 2.4 (0.4) 44.6% -0.2 72 29.2 64 29.3 73 -0.1 76 71 -1
Navy 3-0 2.4 (-0.6) 44.4% -0.2 73 34.4 32 33.7 99 -0.8 124 76 3
Utah State 2-2 2.0 (0.0) 43.2% -0.6 74 26.8 89 27.9 65 0.5 30 80 6
Miami-OH 2-2 3.3 (1.3) 40.7% -1.3 75 24.1 103 25.7 46 0.3 48 83 8
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Missouri 1-3 1.3 (0.3) 40.4% -1.4 76 32.6 42 34.7 107 0.7 14 64 -12
Northern Illinois 2-1 2.0 (0.0) 38.6% -1.9 77 26.3 92 27.5 63 -0.7 116 77 0
Western Michigan 2-2 1.5 (-0.5) 37.3% -2.3 78 26.8 88 29.8 77 0.8 12 91 13
Rutgers 1-3 1.7 (0.7) 35.0% -2.9 79 18.9 121 22.3 23 0.5 36 82 3
Arkansas State 1-2 1.3 (0.3) 34.6% -3.1 80 27.1 85 30.0 78 -0.2 79 79 -1
Ohio 3-1 2.3 (-0.7) 33.3% -3.5 81 23.0 110 27.1 59 0.7 15 89 8
Florida Atlantic 1-3 1.7 (0.7) 33.1% -3.5 82 31.0 52 35.3 111 0.8 11 88 6
Cincinnati 2-2 1.4 (-0.6) 32.4% -3.8 83 24.7 99 27.9 64 -0.5 99 78 -5
Pittsburgh 1-3 0.4 (-0.6) 32.1% -3.8 84 30.8 53 34.2 101 -0.4 93 69 -15
Wyoming 2-2 1.6 (-0.4) 31.9% -3.9 85 23.6 107 27.4 62 -0.1 78 84 -1
Eastern Michigan 2-1 2.2 (0.2) 30.5% -4.3 86 26.7 91 30.7 80 -0.3 85 93 7
Tulane 2-2 2.4 (0.4) 29.1% -4.8 87 24.3 102 29.2 72 0.1 60 96 9
Illinois 2-1 1.2 (-0.8) 28.3% -5.0 88 23.4 108 28.0 67 -0.5 95 90 2
BYU 1-3 0.9 (-0.1) 28.3% -5.0 89 20.0 119 24.8 37 -0.3 83 85 -4
Ball State 2-2 2.6 (0.6) 28.0% -5.1 90 28.8 76 33.0 91 -0.9 127 95 5
Louisiana Tech 2-2 1.7 (-0.3) 27.8% -5.2 91 30.5 55 35.3 112 -0.4 89 86 -5
Air Force 1-2 1.4 (0.4) 27.4% -5.4 92 29.2 63 34.4 103 -0.2 81 94 2
Oregon State 1-3 0.5 (-0.5) 27.3% -5.4 93 29.1 65 33.8 100 -0.7 111 92 -1
Tulsa 1-3 1.2 (0.2) 26.9% -5.5 94 31.8 46 37.4 121 0.1 57 87 -7
North Texas 2-2 2.1 (0.1) 26.2% -5.8 95 27.4 80 33.4 95 0.2 55 103 8
Middle Tennessee 2-2 1.9 (-0.1) 25.9% -5.9 96 26.9 86 33.2 93 0.5 37 99 3
New Mexico State 2-2 2.8 (0.8) 25.8% -5.9 97 28.8 75 34.7 108 0.1 66 107 10
Temple 2-2 1.1 (-0.9) 25.7% -5.9 98 20.5 117 26.4 53 -0.1 74 74 -24
New Mexico 2-2 2.3 (0.3) 25.3% -6.1 99 29.6 61 35.9 116 0.2 52 101 2
Boston College 1-3 0.4 (-0.6) 24.6% -6.3 100 18.1 126 25.1 40 0.7 21 81 -19
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Marshall 2-1 1.2 (-0.8) 21.9% -7.3 101 22.3 113 29.8 76 0.2 51 98 -3
Army 2-2 1.5 (-0.5) 21.3% -7.5 102 25.1 97 32.6 89 -0.1 75 102 0
Central Michigan 2-2 1.5 (-0.5) 19.8% -8.1 103 26.1 93 34.2 102 0.1 62 97 -6
South Alabama 1-3 1.4 (0.4) 18.9% -8.5 104 22.7 111 31.2 82 0.1 61 106 2
Hawaii 2-2 1.9 (-0.1) 17.2% -9.2 105 29.5 62 37.9 123 -0.9 126 105 0
Idaho 2-2 2.1 (0.1) 16.9% -9.3 106 23.8 105 32.7 90 -0.5 94 114 8
Old Dominion 2-2 1.6 (-0.4) 15.1% -10.2 107 22.1 114 32.3 87 0.1 63 100 -7
Massachusetts 0-5 1.6 (1.6) 15.0% -10.2 108 23.8 106 33.1 92 -0.9 130 110 2
Florida International 2-1 1.6 (-0.4) 14.8% -10.3 109 24.0 104 34.4 104 0.1 59 115 6
Fresno State 1-2 1.0 (0.0) 14.7% -10.3 110 23.2 109 33.5 97 0.0 68 108 -2
Kansas 1-3 1.2 (0.2) 14.7% -10.4 111 27.3 83 37.5 122 -0.1 71 111 0
UNLV 1-2 1.9 (0.9) 13.1% -11.2 112 29.1 66 39.7 128 -0.6 106 104 -8
Buffalo 2-2 2.2 (0.2) 11.3% -12.1 113 20.8 116 32.1 86 -0.8 121 122 9
UL-Monroe 1-2 1.2 (0.2) 10.1% -12.9 114 26.7 90 39.3 127 -0.3 87 123 9
Coastal Carolina 1-2 1.0 (0.0) 10.1% -12.9 115 24.4 101 37.3 120 0.0 67 109 -6
Georgia State 1-2 1.1 (0.1) 9.8% -13.0 116 17.2 127 29.4 74 -0.9 128 120 4
UL-Lafayette 1-3 0.6 (-0.4) 9.3% -13.4 117 25.5 96 38.2 124 -0.6 105 116 -1
Bowling Green 0-4 0.3 (0.3) 9.3% -13.4 118 24.5 100 38.4 125 0.5 31 113 -5
Nevada 0-4 0.5 (0.5) 8.1% -14.3 119 21.0 115 35.7 114 0.4 42 117 -2
San Jose State 1-4 1.0 (0.0) 7.4% -14.8 120 18.1 125 33.6 98 0.7 17 112 -8
Akron 1-3 1.1 (0.1) 7.4% -14.8 121 22.6 112 36.6 118 -0.8 122 119 -2
East Carolina 0-3 0.0 (0.0) 6.9% -15.2 122 25.6 95 40.2 129 -0.7 109 121 -1
Connecticut 1-1 0.9 (-0.1) 6.8% -15.3 123 18.7 122 34.6 106 0.7 18 124 1
Georgia Southern 0-3 0.0 (0.0) 6.2% -15.8 124 16.3 129 31.5 83 -0.6 104 118 -6
UAB 2-2 2.3 (0.3) 6.0% -16.0 125 19.1 120 35.2 110 0.2 56 127 2
Rice 1-3 1.2 (0.2) 3.8% -18.4 126 18.4 124 36.5 117 -0.2 82 128 2
Texas State 1-3 1.0 (0.0) 3.6% -18.8 127 16.4 128 34.6 105 -0.6 102 130 3
UTEP 0-4 0.0 (0.0) 3.2% -19.3 128 20.5 118 40.6 130 0.8 6 125 -3
Charlotte 0-4 0.3 (0.3) 2.4% -20.6 129 18.6 123 38.4 126 -0.8 120 129 0
Kent State 1-3 0.6 (-0.4) 2.4% -20.8 130 15.5 130 35.8 115 -0.5 97 126 -4