Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 10/18/14

NOTE: For the first seven weeks of the season, opponent-adjusted data is limited until preseason projections are filtered out of the equations.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included at the end of a season: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
1 Alabama 6-1 282.6 3 2 136.4 2 146.2 2
2 Ole Miss 7-0 277.1 2 0 129.3 8 147.7 1
3 Mississippi State 6-0 273.9 1 -2 137.6 1 136.3 7
4 Auburn 5-1 260.0 4 0 132.4 6 127.6 11
5 Michigan State 6-1 259.1 10 5 126.6 13 132.4 8
6 Oklahoma 5-2 258.4 5 -1 134.0 3 124.4 14
7 Marshall 7-0 255.9 9 2 127.9 9 127.9 9
8 Ohio State 5-1 252.7 17 9 132.8 5 119.9 19
9 Oregon 6-1 252.5 12 3 132.8 4 119.7 20
10 Clemson 5-2 252.2 8 -2 114.0 35 138.2 5
11 West Virginia 5-2 250.8 23 12 127.0 12 123.9 15
12 Louisville 6-2 250.1 11 -1 111.7 41 138.4 4
13 TCU 5-1 248.8 13 0 127.2 11 121.6 17
14 LSU 6-2 248.3 14 0 121.3 18 127.0 13
15 Baylor 6-1 247.6 6 -9 119.9 24 127.7 10
16 Georgia 6-1 246.6 18 2 130.1 7 116.5 29
17 Stanford 4-3 245.9 7 -10 102.4 83 143.5 3
18 Florida State 7-0 242.0 21 3 124.6 15 117.4 27
19 Miami 4-3 240.1 20 1 120.8 22 119.2 22
20 Virginia Tech 4-3 239.9 19 -1 102.4 82 137.5 6
21 Arkansas 3-4 238.7 15 -6 121.1 21 117.7 25
22 Notre Dame 6-1 237.8 22 0 119.8 25 118.0 24
23 Nebraska 6-1 237.2 24 1 121.2 20 116.0 31
24 Texas A&M 5-3 235.9 16 -8 127.9 10 108.0 54
25 USC 5-2 235.6 28 3 121.3 19 114.3 37
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
26 Wisconsin 4-2 234.3 25 -1 116.9 28 117.4 26
27 Pittsburgh 4-3 233.2 32 5 122.3 17 110.9 48
28 Boston College 4-3 233.2 33 5 113.1 36 120.1 18
29 Tennessee 3-4 232.7 31 2 105.5 66 127.2 12
30 Boise State 5-2 231.9 29 -1 116.2 32 115.8 32
31 Arizona State 5-1 231.9 43 12 120.5 23 111.5 44
32 UCLA 5-2 231.6 30 -2 116.8 29 114.7 34
33 Penn State 4-2 230.3 27 -6 106.5 59 123.8 16
34 Kansas State 5-1 229.1 26 -8 112.4 39 116.7 28
35 Michigan 3-4 224.6 36 1 106.3 61 118.3 23
36 Minnesota 6-1 224.2 37 1 108.6 51 115.5 33
37 Missouri 5-2 223.8 44 7 104.4 71 119.4 21
38 N.C. State 4-4 223.6 46 8 122.7 16 100.9 81
39 South Carolina 4-3 223.5 35 -4 118.6 26 104.9 65
40 East Carolina 5-1 222.4 45 5 117.8 27 104.6 68
41 Georgia Tech 5-2 221.9 38 -3 126.0 14 95.9 100
42 Rutgers 5-2 221.3 41 -1 115.8 33 105.5 62
43 Florida 3-3 221.1 39 -4 107.5 55 113.6 42
44 Virginia 4-3 220.8 47 3 106.8 58 114.0 39
45 Arizona 5-1 220.8 49 4 112.9 37 107.9 55
46 Maryland 5-2 220.7 58 12 106.0 62 114.7 35
47 Navy 3-4 220.2 42 -5 115.6 34 104.6 67
48 Memphis 3-3 220.1 52 4 109.1 49 111.1 47
49 Texas 3-4 220.1 34 -15 106.0 63 114.1 38
50 Washington State 2-5 219.8 40 -10 116.4 30 103.4 70
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
51 Colorado State 6-1 218.9 50 -1 112.0 40 106.8 59
52 BYU 4-3 217.8 51 -1 116.3 31 101.5 80
53 Georgia Southern 5-2 217.4 60 7 110.3 43 107.1 58
54 Utah State 4-3 216.1 59 5 99.7 89 116.4 30
55 Arkansas State 4-2 215.9 54 -1 108.7 50 107.1 57
56 Duke 6-1 215.7 56 0 106.4 60 109.4 53
57 Oklahoma State 5-2 215.6 48 -9 105.3 69 110.3 49
58 Louisiana Tech 4-3 215.3 55 -3 102.9 79 112.4 43
59 Kentucky 5-2 214.1 62 3 107.4 56 106.7 61
60 Utah 5-1 214.1 64 4 99.6 92 114.5 36
61 Northwestern 3-4 212.6 57 -4 98.8 95 113.9 40
62 Iowa 5-2 212.0 61 -1 98.2 96 113.7 41
63 California 4-3 211.2 53 -10 112.6 38 98.6 91
64 Air Force 5-2 210.7 67 3 100.9 86 109.8 50
65 Central Florida 4-2 210.6 69 4 101.2 84 109.5 52
66 Purdue 3-5 210.1 66 0 108.2 53 101.8 76
67 North Carolina 3-4 209.8 65 -2 111.7 42 98.1 93
68 South Alabama 4-2 209.0 72 4 97.9 97 111.1 46
69 Middle Tennessee 5-3 208.8 82 13 107.0 57 101.8 77
70 Indiana 3-4 208.7 77 7 109.5 47 99.3 88
71 Oregon State 4-2 208.5 75 4 103.9 75 104.6 69
72 Western Michigan 4-3 208.4 74 2 105.6 65 102.7 73
73 Central Michigan 4-4 208.3 80 7 103.6 77 104.7 66
74 Western Kentucky 2-4 207.7 63 -11 109.9 44 97.7 95
75 UAB 4-3 207.0 71 -4 105.5 67 101.6 79
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
76 UL-Lafayette 3-3 206.2 93 17 108.4 52 97.7 96
77 Washington 5-2 206.1 68 -9 104.3 73 101.7 78
78 UTSA 2-5 205.2 86 8 94.0 107 111.3 45
79 Akron 4-3 205.2 76 -3 99.7 90 105.5 63
80 Nevada 4-3 205.0 83 3 102.5 81 102.5 75
81 Northern Illinois 4-2 204.8 87 6 108.0 54 96.8 98
82 Texas Tech 3-4 204.7 73 -9 109.5 45 95.2 103
83 Illinois 3-4 203.9 79 -4 104.3 72 99.6 87
84 Cincinnati 3-3 203.7 81 -3 109.1 48 94.6 105
85 Colorado 2-5 203.2 70 -15 104.6 70 98.6 90
86 Toledo 4-3 203.1 85 -1 109.5 46 93.6 107
87 San Jose State 3-3 202.7 91 4 99.3 93 103.4 71
88 Syracuse 3-4 202.5 78 -10 104.2 74 98.3 92
89 Houston 4-3 202.4 96 7 97.0 100 105.5 64
90 Florida International 3-5 201.3 94 4 91.6 111 109.7 51
91 San Diego State 4-3 200.9 90 -1 100.9 85 99.9 85
92 Temple 4-2 200.3 88 -4 100.0 88 100.3 83
93 Florida Atlantic 3-4 198.4 97 4 105.6 64 92.7 112
94 New Mexico 2-5 197.9 98 4 105.4 68 92.5 114
95 Rice 3-3 197.7 89 -6 103.2 78 94.5 106
96 Iowa State 2-5 196.5 84 -12 103.9 76 92.7 113
97 Old Dominion 3-4 195.9 95 -2 102.5 80 93.4 109
98 Kansas 2-5 195.4 92 -6 87.8 120 107.6 56
99 UTEP 3-3 193.1 99 0 100.1 87 93.0 111
100 Wyoming 3-4 191.9 100 0 94.4 105 97.6 97
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
101 Ohio 4-4 191.5 105 4 92.7 109 98.8 89
102 Miami (Ohio) 1-7 191.4 101 -1 95.0 103 96.5 99
103 Tulane 2-5 191.4 103 0 91.2 115 100.2 84
104 Fresno State 3-5 190.8 107 3 92.9 108 97.9 94
105 Bowling Green 5-3 190.6 109 4 97.2 98 93.4 108
106 Vanderbilt 2-5 189.5 104 -2 86.8 122 102.7 74
107 Texas State 3-3 189.4 102 -5 94.7 104 94.7 104
108 Massachusetts 2-6 189.0 108 0 99.0 94 90.0 116
109 South Florida 3-4 187.6 112 3 91.8 110 95.8 101
110 UL-Monroe 3-3 187.1 111 1 87.4 121 99.7 86
111 Hawaii 2-5 185.6 110 -1 82.8 124 102.8 72
112 Wake Forest 1-5 185.4 106 -6 78.6 127 106.8 60
113 Southern Miss 3-4 184.4 118 5 91.4 112 93.0 110
114 Appalachian State 2-5 183.7 124 10 97.0 99 86.7 124
115 Kent State 1-6 183.7 123 8 88.4 119 95.3 102
116 Georgia State 1-6 183.3 121 5 95.3 102 88.0 120
117 Idaho 1-6 182.7 117 0 96.3 101 86.4 125
118 Ball State 2-5 181.8 120 2 89.3 117 92.5 115
119 Buffalo 3-4 181.3 115 -4 94.1 106 87.2 123
120 Army 2-5 179.8 113 -7 99.7 91 80.1 128
121 Connecticut 1-5 179.6 122 1 79.1 126 100.5 82
122 New Mexico State 2-6 179.5 119 -3 91.3 113 88.2 119
123 Troy 1-6 178.5 114 -9 90.7 116 87.7 121
124 Tulsa 1-6 177.5 116 -8 91.3 114 86.2 127
125 UNLV 2-5 174.9 126 1 88.7 118 86.2 126
126 North Texas 2-5 171.6 127 1 84.4 123 87.3 122
127 Eastern Michigan 2-5 170.4 128 1 81.7 125 88.7 117
128 SMU 0-6 164.9 125 -3 76.7 128 88.2 118