Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2016 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/9/17

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Alabama 14-1 13.8 (-0.2) 99.8% 34.0 1 40.4 5 6.7 1 0.3 51
Clemson 14-1 13.0 (-1.0) 98.9% 26.9 2 41.2 2 13.7 6 -0.6 85
Michigan 10-3 10.7 (0.7) 98.9% 26.8 3 33.8 41 7.7 2 0.7 39
LSU 8-4 9.2 (1.2) 98.2% 24.6 4 37.1 22 12.8 3 0.2 61
Ohio State 11-2 9.0 (-2.0) 98.2% 24.6 5 36.8 23 13.6 5 1.3 14
Florida State 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 96.7% 21.7 6 40.9 3 19.3 10 0.2 58
Washington 12-2 11.5 (-0.5) 95.8% 20.6 7 38.2 15 18.0 8 0.4 50
Penn State 11-3 10.6 (-0.4) 94.9% 19.4 8 37.8 18 19.8 14 1.4 11
USC 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 94.8% 19.3 9 39.1 12 21.0 20 1.2 19
Oklahoma 11-2 10.8 (-0.2) 94.6% 19.1 10 46.8 1 27.9 55 0.3 54
Wisconsin 11-3 10.3 (-0.7) 93.6% 18.2 11 32.3 49 14.6 7 0.5 44
Louisville 9-4 9.6 (0.6) 93.4% 18.1 12 39.2 10 21.0 19 -0.2 73
Auburn 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 92.9% 17.6 13 34.6 32 18.4 9 1.3 15
Miami-FL 9-4 9.4 (0.4) 91.1% 16.3 14 34.5 34 19.6 13 1.4 12
Florida 9-4 7.8 (-1.2) 87.7% 14.1 15 25.9 88 13.4 4 1.6 2
Western Kentucky 11-3 11.1 (0.1) 85.1% 12.8 16 38.8 13 26.5 43 0.5 43
Virginia Tech 10-4 9.0 (-1.0) 83.5% 12.0 17 31.9 51 20.3 17 0.4 48
Colorado 10-4 9.2 (-0.8) 82.8% 11.7 18 32.4 47 19.6 12 -1.1 103
Boise State 10-3 10.2 (0.2) 82.4% 11.6 19 37.8 19 26.0 39 -0.2 76
Pittsburgh 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 81.4% 11.2 20 40.5 4 28.9 62 -0.4 81
North Carolina 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 81.4% 11.1 21 36.3 26 26.6 44 1.4 9
Oklahoma State 10-3 9.3 (-0.7) 81.3% 11.1 22 39.5 9 29.4 67 0.9 28
Stanford 10-3 8.2 (-1.8) 81.2% 11.1 23 30.3 60 20.8 18 1.6 3
Texas A&M 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 80.6% 10.8 24 35.6 30 25.7 36 0.9 32
NC State 7-6 8.5 (1.5) 80.1% 10.6 25 31.5 55 19.5 11 -1.4 116
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Notre Dame 4-8 7.2 (3.2) 79.8% 10.5 26 34.4 36 23.5 28 -0.4 80
Ole Miss 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 77.9% 9.7 27 38.7 14 30.1 74 1.1 21
Tennessee 9-4 8.0 (-1.0) 77.6% 9.6 28 36.2 28 27.9 54 1.3 17
West Virginia 10-3 7.9 (-2.1) 76.3% 9.1 29 36.3 27 25.9 37 -1.3 112
Iowa 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 73.0% 8.0 30 27.6 78 19.8 15 0.2 59
Kansas State 9-4 7.2 (-1.8) 72.3% 7.7 31 33.1 43 26.4 42 1.1 26
Temple 10-4 10.7 (0.7) 71.4% 7.5 32 27.4 79 20.2 16 0.2 62
San Diego State 11-3 9.9 (-1.1) 71.4% 7.5 33 28.8 70 22.8 24 1.4 10
Toledo 9-4 10.5 (1.5) 71.1% 7.3 34 38.1 16 29.9 70 -0.8 95
Western Michigan 13-1 11.7 (-1.3) 71.1% 7.3 35 36.6 25 29.7 69 0.4 47
Texas 5-7 6.8 (1.8) 71.1% 7.3 36 35.7 29 28.4 60 0.0 68
BYU 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 70.6% 7.2 37 29.5 64 23.5 29 1.2 20
Colorado State 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 70.3% 7.1 38 37.4 21 31.4 81 1.1 24
Houston 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 70.0% 7.0 39 28.9 69 22.8 25 0.9 29
Appalachian State 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 69.3% 6.8 40 30.3 59 23.3 27 -0.2 75
Washington State 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 67.7% 6.2 41 36.8 24 29.1 63 -1.5 122
Minnesota 9-4 8.7 (-0.3) 67.4% 6.2 42 26.9 84 22.3 23 1.5 5
Utah 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 67.0% 6.0 43 30.5 57 25.9 38 1.4 8
Memphis 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 66.6% 5.9 44 34.3 37 30.0 72 1.6 1
Georgia Tech 9-4 7.4 (-1.6) 66.3% 5.8 45 33.0 44 28.3 57 1.1 22
Nebraska 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 65.4% 5.5 46 28.9 68 24.1 33 0.7 36
TCU 6-7 7.4 (1.4) 64.4% 5.2 47 32.8 45 27.5 51 -0.1 71
Arkansas 7-6 5.6 (-1.4) 64.4% 5.2 48 33.9 39 29.1 64 0.5 42
Northwestern 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 62.2% 4.6 49 29.8 63 24.0 32 -1.2 109
Baylor 7-6 7.8 (0.8) 62.2% 4.6 50 34.1 38 28.3 58 -1.2 110
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
California 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 61.6% 4.4 51 40.1 7 36.0 107 0.3 52
Navy 9-5 7.2 (-1.8) 61.5% 4.4 52 37.9 17 34.4 100 0.9 31
Indiana 6-7 7.7 (1.7) 61.4% 4.3 53 29.2 67 23.9 31 -1.0 99
Tulsa 10-3 9.7 (-0.3) 61.1% 4.3 54 34.4 35 30.5 77 0.4 49
South Florida 11-2 9.6 (-1.4) 59.0% 3.6 55 39.7 8 36.4 110 0.3 55
Mississippi State 6-7 6.6 (0.6) 58.4% 3.5 56 34.7 31 30.1 73 -1.1 104
Michigan State 3-9 5.0 (2.0) 58.3% 3.4 57 29.3 66 26.3 41 0.4 46
UCLA 4-8 5.9 (1.9) 56.1% 2.8 58 27.0 82 23.2 26 -1.0 98
Louisiana Tech 9-5 9.6 (0.6) 56.0% 2.8 59 39.2 11 36.5 113 0.1 63
Wake Forest 7-6 5.8 (-1.2) 52.3% 1.7 60 22.9 110 22.0 22 0.8 33
Wyoming 8-6 7.3 (-0.7) 51.2% 1.4 61 34.6 33 33.4 96 0.1 64
Air Force 10-3 8.4 (-1.6) 50.4% 1.2 62 31.6 52 31.6 85 1.1 23
Troy 10-3 9.1 (-0.9) 49.5% 0.9 63 27.4 80 26.9 45 0.4 45
Iowa State 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 48.9% 0.8 64 32.4 48 33.1 95 1.5 6
Oregon State 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 47.4% 0.4 65 28.3 73 27.3 49 -0.7 88
Texas Tech 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 47.4% 0.3 66 40.3 6 40.0 125 0.0 67
Kentucky 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 46.4% 0.1 67 31.6 53 31.6 86 0.1 66
Georgia 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 45.6% -0.2 68 25.3 93 24.5 35 -1.0 97
Missouri 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 45.6% -0.2 69 33.1 42 32.5 89 -0.8 96
Utah State 3-9 4.8 (1.8) 44.9% -0.4 70 27.8 76 27.0 46 -1.1 108
Vanderbilt 6-7 4.5 (-1.5) 44.3% -0.5 71 25.8 90 26.2 40 -0.1 70
Duke 4-8 3.6 (-0.4) 42.4% -1.1 72 27.6 77 27.2 48 -1.4 119
Old Dominion 10-3 9.6 (-0.4) 42.1% -1.2 73 29.8 62 31.2 80 0.2 56
Oregon 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 41.8% -1.2 74 37.8 20 38.7 119 -0.4 78
Central Florida 6-7 6.0 (0.0) 40.2% -1.7 75 20.5 117 23.6 30 1.4 13
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Syracuse 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 39.8% -1.8 76 31.5 54 32.7 92 -0.7 86
Northern Illinois 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 38.2% -2.3 77 32.1 50 33.1 94 -1.3 115
Southern Miss 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 34.1% -3.5 78 27.0 83 31.6 84 1.1 27
South Carolina 6-7 5.3 (-0.7) 33.8% -3.6 79 23.1 107 27.5 50 0.7 37
Arkansas State 8-5 9.1 (1.1) 33.7% -3.7 80 22.2 113 24.5 34 -1.4 120
New Mexico 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 32.4% -4.1 81 33.8 40 39.0 121 1.1 25
Eastern Michigan 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 31.6% -4.3 82 30.5 58 34.9 102 0.1 65
Arizona State 5-7 3.6 (-1.4) 30.9% -4.5 83 30.8 56 36.9 114 1.6 4
Ball State 4-8 5.6 (1.6) 28.8% -5.2 84 29.4 65 34.5 101 -0.1 72
Cincinnati 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 28.8% -5.2 85 23.3 105 27.8 53 -0.8 92
Boston College 7-6 5.9 (-1.1) 28.5% -5.3 86 17.2 124 21.8 21 -0.7 90
Maryland 6-7 5.9 (-0.1) 28.2% -5.4 87 26.3 86 30.7 79 -1.0 102
Virginia 2-10 4.0 (2.0) 28.1% -5.5 88 25.8 89 30.5 78 -0.7 89
Idaho 9-4 6.7 (-2.3) 28.0% -5.5 89 27.2 81 34.0 98 1.2 18
SMU 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 27.4% -5.7 90 28.5 72 32.7 91 -1.6 126
Georgia Southern 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 27.3% -5.7 91 23.9 101 30.5 76 0.9 30
Ohio 8-6 8.3 (0.3) 26.9% -5.9 92 21.6 115 28.7 61 1.3 16
South Alabama 6-7 6.1 (0.1) 26.4% -6.0 93 25.0 95 30.0 71 -1.1 105
Middle Tennessee 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 25.9% -6.2 94 32.5 46 38.6 118 -0.1 69
Illinois 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 25.5% -6.3 95 21.8 114 28.3 59 0.2 60
Arizona 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 24.9% -6.6 96 30.1 61 35.4 105 -1.3 114
Hawaii 7-7 6.7 (-0.3) 24.7% -6.6 97 28.0 74 36.1 109 1.5 7
Miami-OH 6-7 6.9 (0.9) 23.3% -7.1 98 23.8 102 30.2 75 -0.8 91
Central Michigan 6-7 5.2 (-0.8) 22.9% -7.3 99 26.7 85 32.5 88 -1.5 124
East Carolina 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 22.0% -7.6 100 28.7 71 35.3 104 -1.0 101
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Army 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 21.1% -8.0 101 23.0 109 29.3 66 -1.6 128
UL-Lafayette 6-7 6.0 (0.0) 19.9% -8.4 102 20.4 118 29.6 68 0.8 35
UTSA 6-7 6.3 (0.3) 19.8% -8.5 103 24.4 99 32.6 90 -0.3 77
Kansas 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 17.9% -9.3 104 23.0 108 31.5 82 -0.8 94
Purdue 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 17.6% -9.4 105 25.1 94 34.0 99 -0.5 83
Tulane 4-8 5.0 (1.0) 17.5% -9.4 106 19.0 121 27.1 47 -1.4 117
North Texas 5-8 5.2 (0.2) 17.0% -9.6 107 22.7 111 33.1 93 0.8 34
Georgia State 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 16.5% -9.9 108 19.5 120 27.8 52 -1.6 127
Akron 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 13.6% -11.3 109 24.4 98 36.0 106 0.3 53
UNLV 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 13.2% -11.5 110 26.2 87 37.2 116 -0.5 84
Bowling Green 4-8 3.7 (-0.3) 13.2% -11.5 111 25.3 92 37.1 115 0.2 57
San Jose State 4-8 3.4 (-0.6) 13.1% -11.6 112 24.2 100 36.5 112 0.7 38
Kent State 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 12.1% -12.1 113 18.1 122 29.2 65 -1.0 100
Rutgers 2-10 2.0 (0.0) 10.9% -12.8 114 16.8 125 28.2 56 -1.5 123
Florida Atlantic 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 10.6% -13.0 115 27.9 75 41.5 128 0.7 40
Fresno State 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 10.2% -13.2 116 17.8 123 31.6 83 0.5 41
Massachusetts 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 9.9% -13.4 117 23.3 106 35.2 103 -1.5 125
Marshall 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 9.6% -13.6 118 21.6 116 33.9 97 -1.2 111
New Mexico State 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 9.1% -14.0 119 25.7 91 38.9 120 -0.8 93
Florida International 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 8.6% -14.3 120 24.7 96 37.7 117 -1.4 118
Rice 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 7.5% -15.1 121 24.7 97 39.1 122 -0.7 87
UTEP 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 5.8% -16.6 122 23.4 104 39.6 123 -0.4 79
Connecticut 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 5.6% -16.8 123 15.9 127 32.3 87 -0.5 82
Nevada 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 5.3% -17.2 124 23.6 103 39.7 124 -1.1 106
Charlotte 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 5.1% -17.3 125 20.0 119 36.1 108 -1.3 113
UL-Monroe 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 4.6% -17.9 126 22.6 112 40.3 126 -0.2 74
Buffalo 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 2.3% -21.5 127 16.4 126 36.4 111 -1.5 121
Texas State 2-10 1.6 (-0.4) 0.5% -27.8 128 14.5 128 41.1 127 -1.1 107