Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/12/15

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): A simple schedule measure based on average S&P+ ratings and normal distributions.
  • Weighted S&P+ rating: This is an attempt to measure how a team was playing at the end of a given season, with extra weight given to the most recent games. It is limited in power by small sample sizes, but it is useful in determining which teams finished strong and which derived most of their good (or bad) final ratings from early-season play.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Ohio State 14-1 12.8 (-1.2) 99.5% +30.2 1 47.6 1 17.4 11 1.46 5 +26.1 1
Alabama 12-2 12.3 (0.3) 99.2% +28.3 2 43.1 5 14.8 3 1.15 14 +21.9 6
Oregon 13-2 12.9 (-0.1) 97.9% +23.7 3 46.1 2 22.4 28 0.49 43 +23.3 3
Auburn 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 97.8% +23.6 4 44.7 4 21.1 20 2.22 1 +5.2 45
Arkansas 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 97.6% +23.1 5 38.7 15 15.6 6 1.71 4 +22.1 5
Ole Miss 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 97.6% +23.0 6 34.5 35 11.5 1 1.75 3 -0.2 77
Georgia 10-3 10.4 (0.4) 97.3% +22.6 7 41.8 6 19.2 17 0.49 42 +14.4 14
TCU 12-1 11.4 (-0.6) 95.2% +19.4 8 37.8 17 18.4 13 -0.48 88 +14.4 13
UCLA 10-3 8.2 (-1.8) 94.8% +19.0 9 41.0 8 22.0 25 1.90 2 +9.9 27
Georgia Tech 11-3 10.1 (-0.9) 94.5% +18.7 10 45.5 3 26.7 54 1.36 9 +22.6 4
Michigan State 11-2 9.9 (-1.1) 94.5% +18.6 11 40.1 10 21.4 22 0.02 65 +14.6 12
Mississippi State 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 93.6% +17.8 12 40.0 11 22.3 27 0.47 44 +6.1 41
Oklahoma 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 93.5% +17.7 13 39.1 14 21.3 21 0.91 27 +4.9 47
Baylor 11-2 10.6 (-0.4) 92.9% +17.2 14 41.4 7 24.3 39 -0.43 87 +10.0 26
Stanford 8-5 9.4 (1.4) 92.2% +16.6 15 32.0 45 15.4 5 0.24 58 +9.6 28
LSU 8-5 7.3 (-0.7) 92.1% +16.5 16 32.9 38 16.4 9 1.44 6 +5.1 46
Clemson 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 90.8% +15.5 17 27.7 73 12.2 2 -0.09 74 +10.2 25
Boise State 12-2 11.0 (-1.0) 90.6% +15.4 18 39.3 13 23.9 38 0.27 57 +24.0 2
Tennessee 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 88.8% +14.2 19 32.5 40 18.3 12 1.38 7 -3.0 86
USC 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 88.7% +14.2 20 37.6 19 23.5 35 0.77 34 +7.6 35
Marshall 13-1 12.5 (-0.5) 88.6% +14.1 21 39.6 12 25.5 50 -1.18 110 +15.5 8
Florida State 13-1 9.5 (-3.5) 87.9% +13.7 22 37.9 16 24.3 40 0.95 23 +13.2 17
Missouri 11-3 9.3 (-1.7) 86.8% +13.0 23 31.9 47 18.8 15 1.14 15 +5.7 42
Louisville 9-4 9.5 (0.5) 86.6% +12.9 24 31.7 49 18.8 14 0.35 52 +5.5 44
Wisconsin 10-4 10.7 (0.7) 86.3% +12.8 25 35.4 29 22.6 29 -0.19 77 +17.7 7
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Miami 6-7 7.1 (1.1) 86.2% +12.7 26 34.9 32 22.2 26 0.57 39 +3.2 54
Notre Dame 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 84.9% +12.1 27 36.9 20 24.9 43 0.98 20 -0.2 74
Kansas State 9-4 8.3 (-0.7) 84.5% +11.9 28 36.8 22 24.9 44 0.32 54 +11.9 20
Florida 7-5 8.0 (1.0) 83.9% +11.6 29 27.9 72 16.4 8 0.31 55 +11.4 22
Texas A&M 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 81.2% +10.4 30 37.6 18 27.3 58 0.60 37 -2.7 84
Nebraska 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 81.2% +10.3 31 35.4 28 25.1 46 0.01 68 +2.1 59
Arizona State 10-3 9.7 (-0.3) 80.8% +10.2 32 35.4 27 25.3 47 0.04 63 +3.3 53
Texas 6-7 6.9 (0.9) 80.5% +10.0 33 26.4 80 16.3 7 1.23 12 +2.0 60
Louisiana Tech 9-5 10.1 (1.1) 80.1% +9.9 34 31.6 51 21.8 24 -0.21 78 +14.7 11
Arizona 10-4 8.0 (-2.0) 79.1% +9.5 35 34.8 33 25.3 48 1.10 17 +2.9 56
Minnesota 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 78.1% +9.1 36 32.1 44 23.0 31 0.65 36 +10.5 24
Virginia Tech 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 77.7% +8.9 37 25.8 85 16.9 10 1.25 11 -9.8 107
Cincinnati 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 77.3% +8.8 38 35.1 31 26.4 52 0.02 66 +15.0 9
Boston College 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 76.5% +8.4 39 31.9 46 23.5 36 0.41 47 +2.9 55
West Virginia 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 75.4% +8.0 40 32.4 41 24.4 41 0.96 22 +1.8 62
Utah 9-4 7.2 (-1.8) 75.3% +8.0 41 30.7 54 22.7 30 0.52 41 +1.5 64
Virginia 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 75.2% +7.9 42 28.5 66 20.5 19 0.84 28 -2.0 82
South Carolina 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 75.0% +7.9 43 36.9 21 29.0 71 1.13 16 -0.9 80
Pittsburgh 6-7 8.3 (2.3) 74.9% +7.9 44 36.1 24 28.2 65 -0.07 73 +6.5 39
Michigan 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 71.9% +6.8 45 26.3 82 19.6 18 1.01 19 -0.3 78
Penn State 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 70.0% +6.1 46 21.3 109 15.1 4 0.78 33 +1.8 61
BYU 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 70.0% +6.1 47 31.7 50 25.5 49 -0.30 81 +0.1 71
Navy 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 68.6% +5.7 48 35.5 26 29.8 74 0.06 61 +2.2 58
Memphis 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 66.9% +5.1 49 26.7 78 21.5 23 -1.42 114 +7.3 37
N.C. State 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 63.5% +4.0 50 32.1 43 28.1 64 -0.21 79 +4.0 49
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Western Kentucky 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 63.0% +3.9 51 40.1 9 36.3 113 0.05 62 +8.2 33
Utah State 10-4 11.0 (1.0) 62.2% +3.6 52 26.8 77 23.1 32 -0.97 106 +8.4 32
Maryland 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 61.3% +3.3 53 28.1 68 24.7 42 0.59 38 -3.4 89
Air Force 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 57.6% +2.2 54 29.8 58 27.6 60 -0.73 97 +13.3 16
North Carolina 6-7 4.9 (-1.1) 57.2% +2.1 55 35.7 25 33.6 99 1.29 10 +1.1 68
Colorado State 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 56.9% +2.0 56 34.4 36 32.3 92 -1.22 111 +11.6 21
Georgia Southern 9-3 9.4 (0.4) 56.7% +2.0 57 34.5 34 32.6 93 -1.99 124 +3.7 52
Kentucky 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 54.9% +1.5 58 27.7 74 26.2 51 0.52 40 -14.3 119
Arkansas State 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 53.4% +1.0 59 31.4 53 30.4 81 -0.71 96 +8.8 31
UL-Lafayette 9-4 8.6 (-0.4) 51.4% +0.4 60 30.6 55 30.2 78 -0.76 101 +10.8 23
California 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 50.9% +0.3 61 35.2 30 34.9 108 0.40 48 +2.5 57
Western Michigan 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 50.3% +0.1 62 31.5 52 31.4 90 -1.62 120 +14.9 10
Oklahoma State 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 50.1% +0.0 63 28.1 69 28.0 63 0.38 50 -6.0 94
Texas Tech 4-8 4.8 (0.8) 50.0% 0.0 64 36.3 23 36.3 114 0.71 35 -3.4 88
Illinois 6-7 5.1 (-0.9) 49.6% -0.1 65 29.3 60 29.4 72 0.98 21 -3.4 90
Temple 6-6 6.6 (0.6) 49.1% -0.3 66 18.8 120 19.0 16 -0.77 102 +7.0 38
Toledo 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 48.9% -0.3 67 34.4 37 34.7 104 -0.89 104 +7.9 34
Washington State 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 48.4% -0.5 68 32.5 39 33.0 95 0.79 32 -14.4 120
Rutgers 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 48.1% -0.6 69 30.2 56 30.8 86 0.43 45 -9.5 106
Iowa 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 47.8% -0.6 70 27.9 71 28.6 67 -0.34 82 +0.6 70
Central Florida 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 47.2% -0.8 71 22.6 99 23.4 34 -1.39 113 +3.9 51
East Carolina 8-5 9.4 (1.4) 46.9% -0.9 72 29.6 59 30.5 82 -1.83 123 +8.9 30
Duke 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 46.8% -1.0 73 27.6 76 28.6 68 -1.12 109 -6.8 97
Oregon State 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 46.4% -1.1 74 28.6 65 29.7 73 0.43 46 -8.7 103
Washington 8-6 7.9 (-0.1) 45.7% -1.3 75 26.0 83 27.2 56 -0.54 90 -0.1 73
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Rice 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 45.0% -1.5 76 29.1 62 30.6 83 -0.61 94 +5.6 43
Colorado 2-10 3.6 (1.6) 43.7% -1.9 77 32.2 42 34.0 101 1.01 18 -5.2 92
Syracuse 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 43.2% -2.0 78 21.2 110 23.2 33 0.93 26 -7.9 100
Purdue 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 42.9% -2.1 79 24.5 92 26.6 53 0.94 24 -17.4 125
Northern Illinois 11-3 9.3 (-1.7) 42.5% -2.2 80 28.0 70 30.3 80 -1.23 112 +12.0 19
Nevada 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 42.5% -2.2 81 28.7 64 30.9 87 -0.38 84 +7.6 36
South Alabama 6-7 6.4 (0.4) 40.6% -2.8 82 24.5 94 27.3 57 -0.05 72 -8.7 104
San Diego State 7-6 8.6 (1.6) 40.1% -2.9 83 25.4 89 28.3 66 -1.52 115 +13.8 15
UAB 6-6 5.7 (-0.3) 39.7% -3.0 84 28.2 67 31.3 89 -0.73 98 -0.4 79
Northwestern 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 36.9% -3.9 85 21.1 111 25.0 45 0.01 69 -21.1 127
Indiana 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 36.9% -3.9 86 27.7 75 31.6 91 -0.05 71 -13.8 118
Middle Tennessee 6-6 5.7 (-0.3) 35.7% -4.3 87 29.2 61 33.5 98 -0.55 91 -0.2 75
UTEP 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 34.9% -4.5 88 25.4 88 29.9 77 -0.55 92 +4.7 48
Central Michigan 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 32.3% -5.4 89 25.3 90 30.7 84 -1.55 117 +9.4 29
Houston 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 31.0% -5.8 90 23.1 98 28.9 70 -1.65 121 +1.7 63
New Mexico 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 28.9% -6.5 91 31.7 48 38.2 119 0.02 67 +1.3 65
Kansas 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 27.3% -7.1 92 21.8 104 28.8 69 0.80 31 -10.5 109
Tulane 3-9 3.5 (0.5) 26.1% -7.5 93 19.3 117 26.8 55 0.35 51 +0.7 69
UL-Monroe 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 24.7% -8.0 94 19.9 115 27.9 62 -0.16 76 0.0 72
Iowa State 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 24.0% -8.3 95 28.7 63 37.0 115 0.94 25 -16.7 124
Bowling Green 8-6 5.3 (-2.7) 21.8% -9.1 96 25.7 87 34.9 106 -0.74 100 +1.2 66
Florida Atlantic 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 21.7% -9.1 97 25.8 86 34.9 107 0.03 64 -5.4 93
Ohio 6-6 4.7 (-1.3) 21.0% -9.4 98 21.5 106 31.0 88 -0.40 85 +4.0 50
Miami (Ohio) 2-10 3.3 (1.3) 20.5% -9.6 99 24.6 91 34.2 102 0.08 60 +1.1 67
Fresno State 6-8 6.0 (0.0) 20.2% -9.7 100 23.7 96 33.4 97 -0.34 83 -2.7 83
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Kent State 2-9 3.8 (1.8) 20.2% -9.7 101 20.5 113 30.2 79 -0.15 75 -0.2 76
Old Dominion 6-6 5.3 (-0.7) 18.3% -10.6 102 29.9 57 40.4 125 -1.02 107 -6.9 98
Southern Miss 3-9 2.7 (-0.3) 17.9% -10.7 103 21.9 101 32.7 94 0.84 29 -10.4 108
Akron 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 17.6% -10.9 104 19.0 119 29.8 75 -1.52 116 -7.6 99
Vanderbilt 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 17.5% -10.9 105 19.0 118 29.9 76 0.81 30 -9.1 105
Texas State 7-5 6.5 (-0.5) 17.3% -11.0 106 26.6 79 37.7 117 -2.20 126 -3.1 87
Wyoming 4-8 2.8 (-1.2) 16.8% -11.2 107 24.5 93 35.7 111 0.39 49 -8.0 101
Georgia State 1-11 1.7 (0.7) 16.2% -11.5 108 25.8 84 37.3 116 1.36 8 -21.9 128
Idaho 1-10 1.9 (0.9) 16.0% -11.6 109 26.4 81 38.0 118 0.10 59 -2.9 85
UTSA 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 15.0% -12.1 110 15.4 124 27.5 59 -0.59 93 -11.5 112
Florida International 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 14.7% -12.3 111 15.4 125 27.6 61 -0.88 103 -12.9 114
Wake Forest 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 14.4% -12.4 112 11.1 128 23.5 37 0.29 56 -14.9 121
Appalachian State 7-5 7.1 (0.1) 14.3% -12.5 113 21.8 103 34.3 103 -2.69 128 +13.0 18
San Jose State 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 12.2% -13.6 114 20.0 114 33.7 100 -0.64 95 -11.4 111
South Florida 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 12.0% -13.7 115 19.5 116 33.2 96 -0.48 89 -6.6 95
Ball State 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 11.1% -14.2 116 22.0 100 36.2 112 -1.78 122 -1.6 81
UNLV 2-11 2.8 (0.8) 10.0% -15.0 117 23.5 97 38.5 120 -0.41 86 -8.2 102
Tulsa 2-10 1.9 (-0.1) 9.2% -15.5 118 24.0 95 39.5 122 0.32 53 -11.1 110
Connecticut 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 8.2% -16.3 119 14.4 127 30.7 85 -0.27 80 -4.9 91
Massachusetts 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 6.7% -17.5 120 21.7 105 39.1 121 -1.61 119 -6.6 96
Troy 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 6.1% -18.1 121 21.8 102 39.9 123 -0.73 99 -13.7 117
Buffalo 5-6 5.4 (0.4) 5.4% -18.8 122 21.4 108 40.2 124 -2.51 127 +6.1 40
Hawaii 4-9 2.7 (-1.3) 5.4% -18.8 123 16.5 121 35.3 109 -0.95 105 -13.3 115
SMU 1-11 1.2 (0.2) 5.0% -19.3 124 15.5 123 34.7 105 1.19 13 -15.7 122
Army 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 4.5% -19.8 125 21.1 112 40.9 127 -1.55 118 -17.5 126
North Texas 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 4.0% -20.5 126 15.1 126 35.6 110 -2.00 125 -12.5 113
New Mexico State 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 3.3% -21.4 127 21.5 107 42.9 128 -1.03 108 -13.4 116
Eastern Michigan 2-10 1.7 (-0.3) 1.8% -24.6 128 16.0 122 40.6 126 -0.04 70 -16.4 123