Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2017 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 11/18/17

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Ohio State 9-2 9.1 (0.1) 99.4% 22.5 1 40.9 4 18.8 12 0.5 26 1 0
Alabama 11-0 10.2 (-0.8) 99.3% 22.2 2 36.0 16 14.2 2 0.4 32 2 0
Central Florida 10-0 9.8 (-0.2) 97.5% 17.8 3 43.5 2 26.2 51 0.5 29 5 2
Wisconsin 11-0 10.5 (-0.5) 97.1% 17.3 4 31.0 41 14.0 1 0.3 48 3 -1
Georgia 10-1 9.7 (-0.3) 96.9% 17.0 5 35.0 20 18.8 11 0.8 1 7 2
Washington 9-2 9.6 (0.6) 96.9% 17.0 6 33.2 27 15.7 3 -0.5 100 4 -2
Auburn 9-2 9.5 (0.5) 96.8% 16.9 7 33.1 28 16.3 5 0.1 61 6 -1
Penn State 9-2 9.1 (0.1) 96.0% 16.0 8 36.2 14 20.0 14 -0.2 79 8 0
Clemson 10-1 9.6 (-0.4) 95.2% 15.2 9 32.0 35 16.1 4 -0.7 124 11 2
Oklahoma 10-1 9.9 (-0.1) 94.8% 14.9 10 46.5 1 31.6 97 0.0 69 10 0
Miami-FL 10-0 8.5 (-1.5) 93.6% 14.0 11 35.3 19 21.4 24 0.1 60 9 -2
TCU 9-2 8.6 (-0.4) 91.5% 12.8 12 30.0 46 17.9 7 0.7 9 13 1
Notre Dame 9-2 8.9 (-0.1) 91.0% 12.5 13 34.7 23 22.0 28 -0.2 85 14 1
Oklahoma State 8-3 8.3 (0.3) 90.0% 12.0 14 41.7 3 29.4 77 -0.3 89 12 -2
South Florida 9-1 8.7 (-0.3) 87.7% 10.9 15 31.4 39 20.4 18 0.0 66 15 0
Florida Atlantic 8-3 8.3 (0.3) 86.8% 10.6 16 38.2 8 28.4 71 0.8 2 19 3
Michigan 8-3 8.0 (0.0) 84.6% 9.7 17 27.8 69 18.1 8 -0.1 71 16 -1
USC 10-2 9.4 (-0.6) 83.2% 9.2 18 36.0 15 26.8 61 0.0 65 17 -1
Washington State 9-2 7.6 (-1.4) 82.6% 9.1 19 29.5 52 20.2 15 -0.2 83 21 2
Mississippi State 8-3 7.2 (-0.8) 81.7% 8.8 20 28.5 62 20.4 16 0.6 21 18 -2
LSU 8-3 7.6 (-0.4) 81.4% 8.6 21 29.6 49 20.6 19 -0.3 92 22 1
Memphis 9-1 7.5 (-1.5) 80.7% 8.4 22 39.3 5 31.5 96 0.5 24 30 8
Boise State 9-2 8.3 (-0.7) 80.7% 8.4 23 31.7 37 23.9 34 0.6 14 27 4
Louisville 7-4 7.2 (0.2) 80.4% 8.3 24 38.8 6 30.7 90 0.3 45 36 12
Toledo 9-2 8.3 (-0.7) 79.8% 8.1 25 36.4 13 28.2 70 -0.1 72 28 3
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Fresno State 8-3 7.9 (-0.1) 79.4% 8.0 26 28.0 66 20.4 17 0.4 36 23 -3
Arkansas State 6-3 6.5 (0.5) 78.6% 7.8 27 32.6 31 25.4 45 0.6 23 25 -2
Southern Miss 7-4 7.9 (0.9) 78.6% 7.8 28 29.1 54 21.5 25 0.2 49 32 4
Ohio 8-3 7.7 (-0.3) 78.0% 7.6 29 32.2 33 25.2 40 0.6 11 20 -9
Missouri 6-5 6.9 (0.9) 77.8% 7.6 30 37.0 11 30.2 85 0.7 4 34 4
Wake Forest 7-4 6.8 (-0.2) 77.0% 7.3 31 34.0 24 26.4 55 -0.2 82 29 -2
Stanford 8-3 6.9 (-1.1) 75.9% 7.0 32 32.6 32 26.3 52 0.8 3 26 -6
Virginia Tech 8-3 7.0 (-1.0) 75.6% 7.0 33 25.6 92 19.2 13 0.5 31 24 -9
Houston 6-4 6.5 (0.5) 72.8% 6.2 34 32.0 34 26.4 54 0.6 19 35 1
Michigan State 8-3 7.4 (-0.6) 72.7% 6.2 35 23.7 106 17.7 6 0.2 54 39 4
Northern Illinois 8-3 7.6 (-0.4) 69.7% 5.4 36 24.8 100 18.7 10 -0.7 116 37 1
Troy 8-2 6.7 (-1.3) 69.6% 5.4 37 26.9 78 20.8 20 -0.7 120 40 3
Purdue 5-6 6.6 (1.6) 69.6% 5.4 38 27.5 75 21.9 27 -0.2 84 43 5
Colorado State 7-5 7.6 (0.6) 69.0% 5.3 39 36.5 12 31.8 99 0.7 10 50 11
Iowa State 7-4 6.7 (-0.3) 68.7% 5.2 40 28.2 63 23.3 31 0.2 52 41 1
UTSA 6-4 6.3 (0.3) 67.7% 4.9 41 25.6 93 21.3 22 0.6 17 42 1
Appalachian State 6-4 6.4 (0.4) 67.4% 4.9 42 30.2 45 24.9 39 -0.4 97 47 5
West Virginia 7-4 6.9 (-0.1) 66.0% 4.5 43 35.0 22 29.8 80 -0.6 112 33 -10
NC State 7-4 7.2 (0.2) 66.0% 4.5 44 32.8 30 27.6 64 -0.6 114 38 -6
San Diego State 9-2 6.5 (-2.5) 65.4% 4.4 45 28.8 59 24.7 36 0.3 44 49 4
Utah 5-6 6.1 (1.1) 65.1% 4.3 46 29.0 56 25.3 43 0.7 8 44 -2
Arizona 7-4 7.0 (0.0) 64.8% 4.3 47 38.1 9 33.5 112 -0.3 93 31 -16
North Texas 8-3 6.9 (-1.1) 64.0% 4.1 48 35.9 17 32.1 101 0.3 46 46 -2
Northwestern 8-3 6.5 (-1.5) 63.6% 4.0 49 26.5 82 22.6 30 0.1 62 62 13
Ole Miss 5-6 6.9 (1.9) 63.2% 3.9 50 37.6 10 34.3 115 0.6 20 51 1
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Indiana 5-6 5.5 (0.5) 62.9% 3.8 51 24.9 98 21.7 26 0.6 12 65 14
Oregon 6-5 6.6 (0.6) 62.8% 3.8 52 32.0 36 27.6 66 -0.5 105 60 8
Texas 6-5 5.9 (-0.1) 59.9% 3.2 53 25.3 94 22.0 29 -0.2 78 61 8
Wyoming 7-4 6.3 (-0.7) 59.1% 3.0 54 20.7 119 18.2 9 0.5 27 53 -1
Miami-OH 4-7 6.9 (2.9) 57.6% 2.7 55 27.5 74 25.2 41 0.4 39 54 -1
Georgia Tech 5-5 5.8 (0.8) 57.0% 2.5 56 29.5 50 26.6 56 -0.4 96 45 -11
Texas Tech 5-6 5.9 (0.9) 56.6% 2.4 57 33.9 25 30.8 91 -0.7 121 52 -5
SMU 6-5 6.0 (0.0) 56.5% 2.4 58 38.2 7 35.5 118 -0.3 90 48 -10
Army 8-3 6.4 (-1.6) 56.2% 2.4 59 33.0 29 29.9 82 -0.7 122 59 0
Marshall 7-4 5.9 (-1.1) 55.8% 2.3 60 23.6 108 21.4 23 0.0 68 58 -2
Texas A&M 7-4 5.4 (-1.6) 55.0% 2.1 61 28.2 64 26.7 57 0.6 18 57 -4
Iowa 6-5 5.9 (-0.1) 54.6% 2.0 62 22.7 113 21.0 21 0.3 47 55 -7
South Carolina 8-3 6.5 (-1.5) 53.8% 1.8 63 27.0 77 24.7 37 -0.4 95 69 6
Utah State 6-5 5.6 (-0.4) 52.4% 1.5 64 26.5 83 25.4 46 0.5 28 75 11
Virginia 6-5 6.1 (0.1) 52.4% 1.5 65 26.9 79 25.6 49 0.2 51 67 2
Eastern Michigan 4-7 6.2 (2.2) 51.9% 1.4 66 25.9 90 23.9 33 -0.6 108 64 -2
Western Michigan 6-5 5.9 (-0.1) 50.2% 1.1 67 27.7 72 26.8 58 0.2 57 66 -1
Florida State 4-6 4.2 (0.2) 49.2% 0.8 68 25.1 95 24.8 38 0.6 22 79 11
Kansas State 6-5 4.9 (-1.1) 48.7% 0.7 69 29.8 47 29.7 79 0.7 5 68 -1
Navy 6-4 5.1 (-0.9) 47.8% 0.6 70 33.6 26 32.7 108 -0.3 91 63 -7
UAB 7-4 6.5 (-0.5) 47.8% 0.5 71 26.2 87 25.5 47 -0.1 73 56 -15
Boston College 6-5 5.2 (-0.8) 44.2% -0.2 72 23.7 107 23.6 32 -0.3 88 77 5
UCLA 5-6 5.3 (0.3) 43.0% -0.5 73 35.9 18 36.2 119 -0.2 75 72 -1
Duke 5-6 4.9 (-0.1) 42.2% -0.6 74 24.8 101 25.3 42 -0.2 77 88 14
Buffalo 5-6 5.7 (0.7) 41.7% -0.8 75 28.8 58 28.9 74 -0.8 125 84 9
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Arizona State 6-5 4.8 (-1.2) 39.6% -1.2 76 31.1 40 32.4 104 0.0 67 91 15
Middle Tennessee 5-6 5.4 (0.4) 39.2% -1.3 77 24.1 104 25.5 48 0.2 56 74 -3
Western Kentucky 6-5 5.8 (-0.2) 38.8% -1.4 78 27.4 76 28.6 73 -0.2 76 83 5
Central Michigan 7-4 5.6 (-1.4) 38.7% -1.4 79 26.0 88 26.8 60 -0.6 113 78 -1
New Mexico State 4-6 5.2 (1.2) 38.6% -1.4 80 31.6 38 32.4 105 -0.6 115 73 -7
Massachusetts 4-7 5.0 (1.0) 37.6% -1.7 81 26.8 80 27.9 67 -0.6 111 87 6
Colorado 5-6 4.8 (-0.2) 36.9% -1.8 82 28.6 61 31.1 93 0.6 15 80 -2
Florida 4-6 4.4 (0.4) 34.2% -2.4 83 24.2 103 27.3 63 0.6 16 100 17
Pittsburgh 4-7 5.0 (1.0) 34.0% -2.5 84 27.7 71 30.0 83 -0.3 87 92 8
Minnesota 5-6 5.2 (0.2) 33.6% -2.6 85 22.1 115 24.4 35 -0.3 86 70 -15
Syracuse 4-7 3.7 (-0.3) 33.6% -2.6 86 28.1 65 31.4 95 0.7 7 71 -15
California 5-6 4.8 (-0.2) 33.4% -2.6 87 26.2 86 28.9 75 0.1 63 89 2
Kentucky 7-4 4.6 (-2.4) 33.3% -2.7 88 28.0 67 31.2 94 0.5 25 76 -12
Louisiana Tech 5-6 5.0 (0.0) 32.9% -2.7 89 29.7 48 32.5 107 0.1 64 95 6
Vanderbilt 4-7 4.5 (0.5) 31.6% -3.1 90 25.9 91 28.1 68 -0.8 129 81 -9
Tulane 5-6 4.6 (-0.4) 30.6% -3.3 91 28.7 60 32.4 103 0.4 40 93 2
North Carolina 3-8 3.5 (0.5) 30.2% -3.4 92 26.6 81 30.4 87 0.4 33 103 11
Florida International 6-4 4.8 (-1.2) 29.7% -3.5 93 26.3 85 30.3 86 0.4 35 86 -7
Temple 5-6 5.6 (0.6) 29.5% -3.6 94 23.3 110 26.4 53 -0.5 102 85 -9
Arkansas 4-7 4.3 (0.3) 28.2% -3.9 95 28.9 57 32.4 106 -0.4 94 99 4
Nebraska 4-7 3.9 (-0.1) 27.6% -4.1 96 27.8 70 32.2 102 0.3 43 90 -6
UNLV 5-6 4.9 (-0.1) 26.1% -4.5 97 30.6 42 34.5 116 -0.6 107 98 1
UL-Monroe 4-6 3.8 (-0.2) 25.0% -4.7 98 35.0 21 39.9 129 0.2 50 94 -4
Air Force 4-7 3.3 (-0.7) 24.4% -4.9 99 29.2 53 34.3 114 0.2 53 97 -2
New Mexico 3-8 4.5 (1.5) 23.7% -5.1 100 24.9 99 30.4 88 0.4 34 104 4
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Idaho 3-7 4.4 (1.4) 23.1% -5.3 101 23.4 109 28.2 69 -0.5 98 102 1
Georgia State 6-3 4.6 (-1.4) 23.0% -5.3 102 23.1 111 27.6 65 -0.8 127 101 -1
South Alabama 4-7 4.2 (0.2) 22.6% -5.4 103 21.5 118 27.3 62 0.4 38 82 -21
Tennessee 4-7 4.1 (0.1) 20.3% -6.1 104 20.4 120 26.8 59 0.3 42 105 1
Baylor 1-10 3.0 (2.0) 19.0% -6.5 105 25.9 89 32.8 109 0.4 41 109 4
BYU 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 18.8% -6.5 106 18.9 125 25.3 44 0.0 70 108 2
Rutgers 4-7 3.8 (-0.2) 18.8% -6.5 107 19.0 123 25.7 50 0.1 59 96 -11
Akron 6-5 4.2 (-1.8) 18.4% -6.7 108 23.8 105 29.7 78 -0.8 126 110 2
Maryland 4-7 3.9 (-0.1) 18.1% -6.8 109 23.0 112 29.0 76 -0.8 130 106 -3
Cincinnati 3-8 3.4 (0.4) 17.9% -6.8 110 24.4 102 30.7 89 -0.6 110 107 -3
UL-Lafayette 5-5 3.8 (-1.2) 15.4% -7.7 111 30.2 44 37.4 124 -0.5 99 115 4
Texas State 2-9 2.7 (0.7) 13.4% -8.4 112 21.9 117 29.8 81 -0.5 103 113 1
Nevada 2-9 3.2 (1.2) 12.9% -8.7 113 29.0 55 37.1 123 -0.5 101 114 1
Bowling Green 2-9 2.7 (0.7) 12.4% -8.8 114 27.7 73 37.1 122 0.6 13 111 -3
Old Dominion 5-6 4.0 (-1.0) 12.0% -9.0 115 19.6 121 28.5 72 -0.2 80 116 1
Coastal Carolina 2-9 3.2 (1.2) 11.9% -9.1 116 24.9 97 33.8 113 -0.2 81 117 1
Tulsa 2-9 2.5 (0.5) 10.6% -9.6 117 30.3 43 39.8 128 -0.1 74 118 1
Illinois 2-9 2.2 (0.2) 9.3% -10.3 118 19.6 122 30.0 84 0.2 55 112 -6
Connecticut 3-8 2.5 (-0.5) 7.2% -11.5 119 27.9 68 38.8 127 -0.5 106 120 1
Hawaii 3-8 3.1 (0.1) 6.3% -12.1 120 26.4 84 37.7 125 -0.8 128 119 -1
East Carolina 3-8 2.5 (-0.5) 6.2% -12.1 121 29.5 51 42.0 130 0.4 37 125 4
Oregon State 1-10 1.8 (0.8) 4.7% -13.3 122 25.0 96 37.8 126 -0.5 104 121 -1
Georgia Southern 1-9 1.4 (0.4) 4.4% -13.6 123 17.0 128 31.0 92 0.5 30 129 6
Ball State 2-9 2.6 (0.6) 4.2% -13.8 124 22.0 116 35.1 117 -0.7 118 123 -1
Kansas 1-10 1.9 (0.9) 4.1% -13.8 125 17.9 126 31.9 100 0.1 58 122 -3
Charlotte 1-10 1.2 (0.2) 3.4% -14.6 126 19.0 124 32.9 110 -0.7 123 124 -2
Rice 1-10 2.2 (1.2) 2.7% -15.4 127 22.3 114 37.0 121 -0.7 119 126 -1
Kent State 2-9 1.8 (-0.2) 2.3% -16.1 128 16.3 129 31.6 98 -0.7 117 127 -1
San Jose State 1-11 1.5 (0.5) 1.3% -17.9 129 17.8 127 36.5 120 0.7 6 128 -1
UTEP 0-11 0.7 (0.7) 1.1% -18.5 130 15.5 130 33.5 111 -0.6 109 130 0