Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2016 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 12/3/16

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Alabama 13-0 12.3 (-0.7) 99.5% 31.5 1 1 0 38.8 16 7.5 2 0.2 63
Michigan 10-2 10.6 (0.6) 99.5% 31.3 2 2 0 36.1 26 5.1 1 0.3 56
Ohio State 11-1 9.0 (-2.0) 98.8% 27.6 3 3 0 39.2 12 13.1 3 1.5 6
Clemson 12-1 11.5 (-0.5) 96.8% 22.7 4 4 0 39.4 11 16.1 6 -0.5 85
LSU 7-4 8.2 (1.2) 96.3% 22.0 5 5 0 36.3 24 14.7 4 0.4 48
Washington 12-1 11.5 (-0.5) 96.2% 21.8 6 6 0 39.7 10 18.2 10 0.3 53
Louisville 9-3 9.6 (0.6) 96.2% 21.7 7 7 0 42.2 2 19.9 15 -0.6 87
USC 9-3 9.0 (0.0) 95.2% 20.5 8 8 0 38.6 17 19.5 13 1.4 16
Florida State 9-3 9.2 (0.2) 94.3% 19.5 9 9 0 40.4 6 21.0 18 0.1 65
Oklahoma 10-2 9.8 (-0.2) 94.1% 19.2 10 13 3 47.0 1 28.4 57 0.7 37
Auburn 8-4 7.9 (-0.1) 93.8% 19.0 11 12 1 34.9 34 17.1 7 1.2 18
Penn State 11-2 10.0 (-1.0) 91.5% 17.0 12 11 -1 35.6 29 20.0 16 1.5 10
Miami-FL 8-4 8.4 (0.4) 90.1% 16.1 13 17 4 34.5 36 19.9 14 1.4 11
Western Kentucky 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 90.1% 16.0 14 14 0 39.7 9 24.5 35 0.8 34
Boise State 10-2 10.2 (0.2) 90.0% 16.0 15 16 1 40.4 5 24.1 34 -0.3 75
Wisconsin 10-3 9.6 (-0.4) 89.8% 15.8 16 10 -6 30.8 57 15.3 5 0.4 49
Colorado 10-3 9.2 (-0.8) 85.6% 13.4 17 15 -2 33.2 43 18.7 11 -1.2 106
Temple 10-3 10.3 (0.3) 84.7% 12.9 18 18 0 30.1 64 17.5 9 0.3 51
Texas A&M 8-4 8.3 (0.3) 83.4% 12.3 19 19 0 35.9 27 24.6 37 1.1 26
Iowa 8-4 8.0 (0.0) 82.4% 11.9 20 22 2 29.9 65 18.7 12 0.7 39
Stanford 9-3 7.8 (-1.2) 81.2% 11.3 21 33 12 30.8 58 21.1 19 1.6 2
North Carolina 8-4 7.9 (-0.1) 80.7% 11.1 22 25 3 37.1 23 27.5 48 1.5 5
Colorado State 7-5 8.0 (1.0) 80.4% 10.9 23 20 -3 38.4 19 28.5 58 1.1 27
Virginia Tech 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 80.0% 10.8 24 27 3 31.5 50 21.2 20 0.4 44
Notre Dame 4-8 7.2 (3.2) 79.3% 10.5 25 30 5 34.4 38 23.4 29 -0.4 79
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Pittsburgh 8-4 7.4 (-0.6) 79.3% 10.5 26 26 0 40.5 4 29.3 66 -0.7 90
Houston 9-3 8.7 (-0.3) 78.4% 10.1 27 28 1 31.2 54 21.9 22 0.9 31
NC State 6-6 7.5 (1.5) 77.4% 9.7 28 41 13 31.2 55 20.1 17 -1.4 115
Oklahoma State 9-3 8.3 (-0.7) 76.5% 9.4 29 23 -6 39.1 13 30.9 81 1.2 21
Ole Miss 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 74.9% 8.8 30 39 9 38.2 20 30.6 77 1.2 22
BYU 8-4 8.3 (0.3) 73.8% 8.4 31 36 5 30.3 60 23.0 26 1.1 24
Appalachian State 9-3 9.3 (0.3) 73.8% 8.4 32 31 -1 30.8 56 22.1 24 -0.4 76
Washington State 8-4 7.3 (-0.7) 73.4% 8.3 33 46 13 39.0 15 29.2 63 -1.5 122
Nebraska 9-3 7.9 (-1.1) 73.2% 8.2 34 40 6 30.2 62 22.4 25 0.4 45
Toledo 9-3 9.6 (0.6) 73.1% 8.1 35 38 3 38.6 18 29.9 70 -0.5 83
Western Michigan 13-0 11.4 (-1.6) 72.4% 7.9 36 29 -7 37.3 22 29.6 68 0.3 57
Minnesota 8-4 8.0 (0.0) 72.1% 7.8 37 48 11 28.3 73 22.0 23 1.5 8
Kansas State 8-4 6.7 (-1.3) 72.0% 7.7 38 54 16 32.8 46 25.8 39 0.8 33
South Florida 10-2 9.0 (-1.0) 71.4% 7.5 39 37 -2 41.9 3 34.8 100 0.4 41
Utah 8-4 6.8 (-1.2) 70.8% 7.3 40 42 2 31.4 53 25.5 38 1.4 12
Memphis 8-4 7.1 (-0.9) 70.7% 7.3 41 45 4 34.4 37 28.8 60 1.7 1
Florida 8-4 6.8 (-1.2) 70.5% 7.2 42 21 -21 22.8 107 17.2 8 1.6 3
Tennessee 8-4 7.0 (-1.0) 70.1% 7.1 43 34 -9 35.2 32 29.3 65 1.2 20
TCU 6-6 7.3 (1.3) 70.1% 7.1 44 24 -20 33.8 41 27.0 44 0.2 59
Texas 5-7 6.8 (1.8) 68.5% 6.6 45 49 4 35.3 31 28.7 59 0.0 69
San Diego State 10-3 9.0 (-1.0) 68.3% 6.5 46 35 -11 29.0 72 24.0 33 1.5 9
Tulsa 9-3 8.7 (-0.3) 66.0% 5.8 47 51 4 35.3 30 29.6 67 0.1 68
Indiana 6-6 7.3 (1.3) 65.0% 5.4 48 55 7 29.9 66 23.5 30 -1.0 98
Northwestern 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 64.8% 5.4 49 50 1 29.8 67 23.3 27 -1.1 103
Georgia Tech 8-4 6.5 (-1.5) 64.7% 5.3 50 47 -3 33.2 44 28.9 61 1.0 28
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Louisiana Tech 8-5 9.1 (1.1) 64.5% 5.3 51 44 -7 40.0 8 34.9 103 0.2 62
West Virginia 10-2 7.8 (-2.2) 63.8% 5.1 52 32 -20 34.6 35 28.2 55 -1.4 116
Arkansas 7-5 5.4 (-1.6) 59.3% 3.6 53 52 -1 33.9 40 30.6 76 0.4 47
Michigan State 3-9 5.0 (2.0) 57.3% 3.1 54 63 9 29.1 71 26.5 42 0.4 43
Mississippi State 5-7 6.3 (1.3) 57.0% 3.0 55 61 6 34.9 33 30.7 79 -1.2 109
California 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 54.9% 2.3 56 57 1 39.0 14 37.0 114 0.3 54
UCLA 4-8 5.9 (1.9) 54.5% 2.2 57 58 1 26.7 83 23.5 31 -1.0 99
Air Force 9-3 7.5 (-1.5) 52.4% 1.6 58 60 2 31.4 52 30.9 80 1.1 25
Kentucky 7-5 6.5 (-0.5) 47.8% 0.2 59 64 5 32.2 47 32.0 87 0.1 67
Navy 9-3 6.6 (-2.4) 47.1% 0.0 60 53 -7 36.2 25 36.4 110 0.2 60
Texas Tech 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 47.0% 0.0 61 74 13 40.1 7 40.1 123 0.0 70
Oregon State 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 46.6% -0.1 62 79 17 28.1 75 27.5 47 -0.7 92
Old Dominion 9-3 8.8 (-0.2) 45.9% -0.3 63 62 -1 30.3 61 30.5 74 -0.1 72
Missouri 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 45.3% -0.5 64 66 2 33.0 45 32.6 88 -0.9 96
Troy 9-3 8.5 (-0.5) 45.2% -0.5 65 43 -22 26.7 82 28.2 54 0.9 29
Georgia 7-5 6.9 (-0.1) 45.0% -0.6 66 69 3 24.9 93 24.6 36 -0.9 97
Iowa State 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 44.5% -0.7 67 68 1 31.6 49 33.9 95 1.5 7
Wyoming 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 44.4% -0.8 68 59 -9 34.1 39 35.2 104 0.4 50
Oregon 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 44.2% -0.8 69 72 3 38.0 21 38.4 119 -0.4 77
Central Florida 6-6 6.0 (0.0) 44.1% -0.8 70 65 -5 21.6 110 23.8 32 1.4 15
Utah State 3-9 4.8 (1.8) 43.9% -0.9 71 67 -4 27.6 79 27.3 46 -1.2 107
Wake Forest 6-6 5.2 (-0.8) 42.9% -1.2 72 73 1 21.4 112 23.3 28 0.7 35
Baylor 6-6 6.8 (0.8) 42.3% -1.4 73 56 -17 31.4 51 31.6 85 -1.3 111
New Mexico 8-4 7.0 (-1.0) 40.5% -1.9 74 81 7 35.6 28 38.6 120 1.1 23
Vanderbilt 6-6 4.5 (-1.5) 40.5% -1.9 75 75 0 25.1 90 27.2 45 0.1 66
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Northern Illinois 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 39.2% -2.3 76 70 -6 32.1 48 33.1 90 -1.3 114
Middle Tennessee 8-4 7.7 (-0.3) 38.6% -2.5 77 71 -6 33.7 42 36.4 111 0.2 64
Miami-OH 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 37.7% -2.8 78 90 12 25.8 87 28.2 51 -0.5 81
Duke 4-8 3.6 (-0.4) 36.4% -3.2 79 78 -1 26.6 85 28.3 56 -1.5 119
Southern Miss 6-6 5.9 (-0.1) 36.1% -3.3 80 77 -3 27.2 80 31.7 86 1.2 19
Central Michigan 6-6 5.2 (-0.8) 34.2% -3.9 81 89 8 28.2 74 30.5 75 -1.6 125
Army 6-5 6.5 (0.5) 33.2% -4.2 82 96 14 23.9 101 26.5 41 -1.6 127
Ohio 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 32.5% -4.5 83 91 8 22.5 108 28.2 53 1.3 17
Eastern Michigan 7-5 6.1 (-0.9) 31.2% -4.9 84 80 -4 30.1 63 35.3 105 0.3 52
Ball State 4-8 5.6 (1.6) 30.6% -5.1 85 82 -3 29.5 69 34.5 98 -0.1 71
Georgia Southern 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 30.5% -5.1 86 103 17 24.2 99 30.2 72 0.9 30
Maryland 6-6 5.3 (-0.7) 30.1% -5.3 87 97 10 26.9 81 30.9 82 -1.2 108
Boston College 6-6 5.5 (-0.5) 29.8% -5.3 88 88 0 16.6 125 21.7 21 -0.2 74
Arizona State 5-7 3.6 (-1.4) 29.3% -5.5 89 92 3 30.3 59 37.4 117 1.6 4
Syracuse 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 28.9% -5.7 90 85 -5 29.6 68 34.6 99 -0.7 88
Cincinnati 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 28.5% -5.8 91 83 -8 23.1 104 28.1 49 -0.8 93
Arkansas State 7-5 8.1 (1.1) 28.2% -5.9 92 76 -16 21.9 109 26.3 40 -1.5 120
South Carolina 6-6 4.8 (-1.2) 25.5% -6.9 93 93 0 20.9 117 28.2 52 0.4 46
Virginia 2-10 4.0 (2.0) 25.0% -7.0 94 95 1 25.0 91 31.3 84 -0.7 91
South Alabama 6-6 6.0 (0.0) 24.9% -7.1 95 84 -11 23.7 102 29.7 69 -1.1 102
Idaho 8-4 5.8 (-2.2) 24.5% -7.2 96 86 -10 25.0 92 33.7 94 1.4 13
SMU 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 24.1% -7.4 97 87 -10 27.7 77 33.5 93 -1.6 126
Illinois 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 23.6% -7.6 98 105 7 21.2 114 29.0 62 0.2 61
Hawaii 6-7 5.9 (-0.1) 22.8% -7.9 99 100 1 26.7 84 36.0 108 1.4 14
Arizona 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 21.6% -8.4 100 101 1 29.2 70 36.3 109 -1.3 113
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
East Carolina 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 20.5% -8.8 101 98 -3 28.1 76 35.9 106 -1.0 101
Tulane 4-8 5.0 (1.0) 20.4% -8.8 102 99 -3 19.3 119 26.8 43 -1.4 117
Akron 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 20.2% -8.9 103 108 5 25.6 89 34.8 102 0.3 55
UTSA 6-6 5.8 (-0.2) 19.6% -9.2 104 102 -2 24.2 98 33.0 89 -0.4 80
San Jose State 4-8 3.4 (-0.6) 17.0% -10.3 105 111 6 24.9 94 35.9 107 0.7 36
Georgia State 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 16.5% -10.6 106 107 1 19.2 120 28.1 50 -1.6 128
UL-Lafayette 6-6 6.0 (0.0) 15.8% -10.9 107 94 -13 19.0 121 30.7 78 0.8 32
Purdue 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 15.5% -11.1 108 114 6 24.3 97 34.8 101 -0.5 84
UNLV 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 15.1% -11.2 109 106 -3 26.4 86 37.1 115 -0.5 86
Massachusetts 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 14.8% -11.4 110 113 3 24.3 96 34.2 96 -1.5 124
North Texas 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 14.2% -11.7 111 104 -7 21.1 115 33.3 91 0.4 42
Fresno State 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 13.6% -12.0 112 117 5 18.5 122 31.0 83 0.5 40
Kent State 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 13.2% -12.2 113 109 -4 18.0 123 29.2 64 -1.0 100
Florida International 4-8 3.2 (-0.8) 12.7% -12.5 114 116 2 25.7 88 36.8 113 -1.4 118
Kansas 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 12.1% -12.8 115 115 0 21.3 113 33.3 92 -0.8 94
Bowling Green 4-8 3.7 (-0.3) 12.0% -12.9 116 110 -6 24.6 95 37.8 118 0.2 58
Connecticut 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 11.7% -13.1 117 123 6 17.8 124 30.5 73 -0.5 82
Florida Atlantic 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 11.0% -13.5 118 112 -6 27.6 78 41.8 126 0.7 38
Marshall 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 9.4% -14.6 119 119 0 21.1 116 34.4 97 -1.3 110
Rutgers 2-10 2.0 (0.0) 7.0% -16.5 120 124 4 15.1 127 30.0 71 -1.5 123
Nevada 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 6.8% -16.6 121 122 1 23.9 100 39.4 121 -1.2 104
UTEP 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 6.2% -17.2 122 120 -2 23.1 105 39.9 122 -0.4 78
Rice 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 5.9% -17.5 123 121 -2 23.5 103 40.3 124 -0.7 89
Charlotte 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 5.2% -18.2 124 125 1 19.6 118 36.5 112 -1.3 112
New Mexico State 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 3.9% -19.8 125 118 -7 22.8 106 41.8 127 -0.8 95
UL-Monroe 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 3.8% -20.0 126 126 0 21.6 111 41.4 125 -0.2 73
Buffalo 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 2.1% -23.0 127 127 0 15.7 126 37.2 116 -1.5 121
Texas State 2-10 1.6 (-0.4) 0.1% -34.1 128 128 0 11.4 128 44.3 128 -1.2 105