Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 12/6/14

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included at the end of a season: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
1 Alabama 12-1 270.7 1 0 133.1 2 137.6 1
2 Ohio State 12-1 266.0 2 0 136.3 1 129.7 4
3 Oregon 12-1 253.4 5 2 129.9 3 123.5 12
4 Marshall 12-1 251.1 7 3 118.7 15 132.5 3
5 Mississippi State 10-2 250.7 3 -2 125.9 4 124.9 9
6 Michigan State 10-2 248.9 11 5 121.5 8 127.4 6
7 Ole Miss 9-3 248.2 4 -3 119.7 12 128.5 5
8 Baylor 11-1 243.9 8 0 120.0 11 123.9 11
9 Wisconsin 10-3 243.3 12 3 120.7 9 122.7 14
10 TCU 11-1 239.5 9 -1 116.3 16 123.2 13
11 Clemson 9-3 238.8 14 3 103.4 48 135.4 2
12 Oklahoma 8-4 237.3 13 1 122.1 7 115.1 24
13 Boise State 11-2 235.6 21 8 119.0 14 116.6 19
14 Georgia 9-3 234.6 17 3 119.2 13 115.4 23
15 Florida State 13-0 234.3 16 1 120.6 10 113.7 26
16 Auburn 8-4 234.2 10 -6 122.4 6 111.8 29
17 LSU 8-4 234.0 6 -11 109.2 35 124.9 8
18 Louisville 9-3 232.5 15 -3 110.5 32 122.0 16
19 Arkansas 6-6 230.9 18 -1 114.7 18 116.2 20
20 Stanford 7-5 229.6 22 2 103.3 49 126.3 7
21 Miami 6-6 225.1 20 -1 111.9 28 113.2 27
22 West Virginia 7-5 224.5 19 -3 108.9 37 115.6 22
23 Georgia Tech 10-3 224.3 25 2 124.3 5 99.9 58
24 UCLA 9-3 221.6 28 4 114.1 20 107.6 40
25 Kansas State 9-3 220.3 24 -1 112.0 27 108.3 38
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
26 USC 8-4 220.1 23 -3 111.3 30 108.8 34
27 Louisiana Tech 8-5 220.1 37 10 100.6 59 119.4 17
28 Colorado State 10-2 219.4 31 3 113.7 22 105.7 45
29 Boston College 7-5 219.0 32 3 110.4 33 108.7 36
30 Virginia Tech 6-6 218.7 29 -1 94.3 89 124.4 10
31 Nebraska 9-3 218.6 26 -5 111.3 29 107.3 41
32 Texas 6-6 217.7 35 3 99.6 66 118.2 18
33 Missouri 10-3 217.3 38 5 103.0 50 114.4 25
34 Penn State 6-6 215.0 33 -1 92.8 91 122.2 15
35 Arizona State 9-3 214.1 30 -5 104.5 45 109.7 32
36 Pittsburgh 6-6 213.9 39 3 116.0 17 97.9 68
37 Notre Dame 7-5 213.8 27 -10 112.2 24 101.5 56
38 Memphis 9-3 213.0 43 5 100.9 56 112.1 28
39 Tennessee 6-6 212.5 34 -5 100.8 57 111.7 30
40 Minnesota 8-4 212.0 42 2 105.0 43 107.0 42
41 Navy 6-5 211.9 41 0 114.1 19 97.8 71
42 Florida 6-5 211.5 40 -2 95.7 81 115.8 21
43 Western Michigan 8-4 211.1 47 4 109.0 36 102.2 50
44 Arizona 10-3 210.9 44 0 104.6 44 106.3 43
45 Georgia Southern 9-3 210.7 36 -9 108.7 38 102.0 52
46 BYU 8-4 210.7 46 0 108.6 39 102.1 51
47 Cincinnati 9-3 210.0 57 10 112.1 26 97.9 69
48 East Carolina 8-4 209.3 50 2 109.6 34 99.7 59
49 Texas A&M 7-5 209.2 45 -4 113.5 23 95.7 80
50 N.C. State 7-5 208.6 55 5 110.9 31 97.6 72
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
51 Central Florida 9-3 208.1 59 8 99.7 64 108.4 37
52 Air Force 9-3 207.5 48 -4 98.7 67 108.7 35
53 Utah State 9-4 207.4 54 1 98.0 70 109.4 33
54 Western Kentucky 7-5 207.1 68 14 113.8 21 93.3 94
55 Virginia 5-7 206.4 52 -3 96.3 79 110.1 31
56 Michigan 5-7 205.9 53 -3 97.7 73 108.2 39
57 South Carolina 6-6 204.1 51 -6 112.2 25 91.9 100
58 Central Michigan 7-5 204.0 61 3 102.5 52 101.5 57
59 Maryland 7-5 203.3 58 -1 99.7 63 103.5 48
60 Toledo 8-4 202.6 67 7 105.3 42 97.3 73
61 Iowa 7-5 201.7 66 5 97.0 76 104.7 47
62 Utah 8-4 200.3 60 -2 95.2 85 105.1 46
63 UL-Lafayette 8-4 200.3 65 2 105.5 41 94.8 87
64 San Diego State 7-5 200.1 77 13 98.1 69 102.0 54
65 California 5-7 199.8 64 -1 107.5 40 92.3 97
66 Duke 9-3 198.8 49 -17 100.8 58 98.0 67
67 Rutgers 7-5 198.6 62 -5 104.4 46 94.2 90
68 Arkansas State 7-5 198.4 56 -12 100.5 61 97.9 70
69 Northern Illinois 11-2 198.2 76 7 101.9 55 96.3 77
70 Washington 8-5 197.4 78 8 95.6 82 101.8 55
71 Kentucky 5-7 197.0 63 -8 100.2 62 96.8 75
72 Temple 6-6 196.4 70 -2 90.2 97 106.2 44
73 Oklahoma State 6-6 195.5 75 2 96.0 80 99.4 61
74 Appalachian State 7-5 195.1 90 16 99.6 65 95.5 83
75 UAB 6-6 194.2 88 13 97.9 71 96.3 78
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
76 Washington State 3-9 194.2 71 -5 100.5 60 93.6 92
77 Texas Tech 4-8 193.6 89 12 103.4 47 90.2 106
78 Nevada 7-5 193.2 69 -9 97.7 74 95.5 82
79 North Carolina 6-6 193.0 81 2 102.4 53 90.6 105
80 Illinois 6-6 192.6 82 2 97.7 72 94.8 86
81 Middle Tennessee 6-6 192.6 73 -8 98.4 68 94.2 89
82 South Alabama 6-6 192.2 84 2 88.8 103 103.4 49
83 Oregon State 5-7 191.7 87 4 97.4 75 94.3 88
84 Indiana 4-8 191.7 85 1 95.3 84 96.4 76
85 Northwestern 5-7 191.3 72 -13 89.3 101 102.0 53
86 Houston 7-5 190.9 79 -7 95.3 83 95.6 81
87 UTEP 7-5 189.7 95 8 94.8 88 94.9 84
88 Texas State 7-5 189.1 91 3 95.1 86 93.9 91
89 Colorado 2-10 188.3 86 -3 96.5 77 91.8 102
90 Syracuse 3-9 187.7 83 -7 88.5 104 99.2 62
91 Rice 7-5 187.5 80 -11 96.4 78 91.1 103
92 Purdue 3-9 187.3 74 -18 91.1 95 96.3 79
93 New Mexico 4-8 187.1 92 -1 102.1 54 85.1 116
94 Old Dominion 6-6 187.1 97 3 102.7 51 84.4 117
95 Tulane 3-9 183.9 94 -1 85.8 111 98.1 66
96 Buffalo 5-6 183.3 114 18 93.7 90 89.6 108
97 UL-Monroe 4-8 182.9 101 4 83.9 116 99.1 63
98 Florida Atlantic 3-9 181.9 102 4 92.7 94 89.2 112
99 Ohio 6-6 181.8 100 1 88.2 105 93.6 93
100 Akron 5-6 181.1 96 -4 86.2 110 94.8 85
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
101 Ball State 5-7 180.4 103 2 89.7 98 90.7 104
102 Kansas 3-9 180.3 105 3 83.3 117 97.0 74
103 UTSA 4-8 180.1 98 -5 81.2 121 98.9 64
104 San Jose State 3-9 179.8 93 -11 87.9 106 91.9 101
105 Bowling Green 7-6 179.4 99 -6 89.4 100 90.0 107
106 Florida International 4-8 179.2 104 -2 80.8 122 98.4 65
107 Fresno State 6-7 178.8 117 10 86.6 109 92.2 98
108 Wyoming 4-8 178.6 106 -2 89.0 102 89.5 109
109 Miami (Ohio) 2-10 178.2 112 3 89.5 99 88.7 113
110 Massachusetts 3-9 178.0 107 -3 92.7 93 85.3 115
111 Vanderbilt 3-9 175.9 111 0 83.9 115 92.0 99
112 Iowa State 2-10 175.9 108 -4 92.7 92 83.1 119
113 Kent State 1-9 175.1 118 5 82.1 120 93.0 95
114 Army 4-7 174.8 116 2 94.8 87 80.0 127
115 Idaho 1-10 174.7 109 -6 90.5 96 84.2 118
116 Wake Forest 2-9 174.3 110 -6 74.7 126 99.5 60
117 Southern Miss 3-9 173.9 115 -2 85.3 113 88.6 114
118 Connecticut 2-10 172.4 113 -5 79.5 124 92.9 96
119 Troy 3-9 170.0 124 5 86.9 108 83.0 120
120 South Florida 4-8 169.6 119 -1 80.1 123 89.5 110
121 Hawaii 4-9 168.6 120 -1 79.3 125 89.3 111
122 Tulsa 2-10 167.6 123 1 87.9 107 79.7 128
123 New Mexico State 2-10 167.4 122 -1 85.7 112 81.7 122
124 North Texas 4-8 165.5 121 -3 82.5 119 82.9 121
125 Georgia State 1-11 164.2 125 0 84.1 114 80.2 126
126 UNLV 2-11 163.2 126 0 82.9 118 80.2 125
127 SMU 1-11 153.3 128 1 73.0 127 80.3 124
128 Eastern Michigan 2-10 152.2 127 -1 71.9 128 80.4 123