Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2017 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/8/18

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Ohio State 12-2 11.6 (-0.4) 99.1% 20.8 1 38.7 7 18.2 8 0.4 35
Alabama 13-1 12.1 (-0.9) 98.8% 20.0 2 33.6 23 13.8 1 0.2 52
Georgia 13-2 12.8 (-0.2) 97.5% 17.5 3 36.0 14 19.2 11 0.8 3
Penn State 11-2 10.8 (-0.2) 97.3% 17.3 4 37.6 10 20.0 12 -0.3 88
Washington 10-3 10.9 (0.9) 96.9% 16.8 5 34.7 18 17.4 6 -0.5 105
Wisconsin 13-1 12.0 (-1.0) 96.8% 16.6 6 30.7 41 14.5 3 0.4 28
Central Florida 13-0 11.7 (-1.3) 95.7% 15.5 7 44.1 2 28.8 74 0.2 51
Clemson 12-2 11.7 (-0.3) 95.6% 15.4 8 30.0 45 13.9 2 -0.7 114
Oklahoma 12-2 11.9 (-0.1) 95.1% 15.0 9 47.2 1 32.2 101 0.0 71
Auburn 10-4 10.6 (0.6) 94.2% 14.3 10 31.6 34 17.4 5 0.1 61
Florida Atlantic 11-3 11.3 (0.3) 92.9% 13.4 11 38.8 6 26.0 52 0.7 13
Oklahoma State 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 92.5% 13.2 12 41.7 3 28.5 70 -0.1 72
Notre Dame 10-3 9.6 (-0.4) 88.8% 11.3 13 33.6 24 22.4 27 0.1 59
TCU 11-3 10.1 (-0.9) 88.2% 11.0 14 31.2 39 20.8 16 0.7 9
South Florida 10-2 9.9 (-0.1) 86.8% 10.5 15 33.5 27 23.0 28 -0.1 73
Louisville 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 83.8% 9.4 16 38.8 5 29.8 84 0.4 39
Miami-FL 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 83.5% 9.2 17 31.4 36 21.7 22 -0.4 100
Appalachian State 9-4 9.3 (0.3) 83.3% 9.2 18 31.7 33 22.1 24 -0.4 99
LSU 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 83.2% 9.1 19 30.5 42 21.1 18 -0.3 86
Memphis 10-3 9.3 (-0.7) 83.0% 9.1 20 41.0 4 32.3 102 0.3 41
Michigan State 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 82.9% 9.0 21 25.8 92 17.2 4 0.5 24
Ohio 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 82.1% 8.8 22 33.2 30 25.0 48 0.6 14
Fresno State 10-4 10.0 (0.0) 80.3% 8.2 23 28.1 68 20.1 13 0.2 49
Arkansas State 7-5 8.8 (1.8) 80.2% 8.2 24 34.5 19 26.7 56 0.3 40
Boise State 11-3 10.0 (-1.0) 80.1% 8.2 25 30.9 40 23.1 30 0.4 29
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
USC 11-3 10.1 (-0.9) 79.9% 8.1 26 35.1 16 26.6 55 -0.3 89
Michigan 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 79.3% 7.9 27 26.5 85 18.7 10 0.1 58
Mississippi State 9-4 8.0 (-1.0) 79.2% 7.9 28 28.6 63 21.3 19 0.6 16
Toledo 11-3 10.3 (-0.7) 78.1% 7.6 29 34.3 20 26.8 57 0.1 64
Virginia Tech 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 78.1% 7.6 30 25.6 96 18.4 9 0.4 31
Troy 11-2 8.8 (-2.2) 77.8% 7.5 31 29.2 58 21.0 17 -0.8 125
Stanford 9-5 8.6 (-0.4) 76.3% 7.1 32 33.4 29 27.1 59 0.8 2
Utah 7-6 8.0 (1.0) 75.6% 6.9 33 29.5 55 23.3 34 0.7 10
San Diego State 10-3 8.3 (-1.7) 74.6% 6.6 34 30.2 44 23.9 38 0.4 36
Missouri 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 74.1% 6.5 35 36.4 13 30.6 90 0.7 7
Houston 7-5 7.6 (0.6) 73.9% 6.4 36 31.2 37 25.3 49 0.5 22
Wake Forest 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 72.6% 6.1 37 33.8 22 27.7 65 0.0 70
NC State 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 71.9% 5.9 38 33.9 21 27.2 62 -0.7 116
Washington State 9-4 7.6 (-1.4) 69.8% 5.4 39 28.6 62 23.0 29 -0.2 79
Southern Miss 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 69.4% 5.3 40 28.5 65 23.1 31 0.0 69
Purdue 7-6 7.8 (0.8) 68.6% 5.1 41 28.8 60 23.3 35 -0.3 90
Ole Miss 6-6 7.8 (1.8) 68.4% 5.1 42 37.8 9 33.4 113 0.6 17
Florida State 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 67.5% 4.9 43 27.4 76 23.2 33 0.7 8
Colorado State 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 67.2% 4.8 44 36.4 12 32.3 103 0.7 5
Northwestern 10-3 7.9 (-2.1) 67.1% 4.8 45 26.8 82 21.9 23 -0.1 77
Iowa State 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 67.0% 4.7 46 27.9 71 23.2 32 0.0 68
Oregon 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 66.9% 4.7 47 32.2 32 27.2 61 -0.4 92
Arizona 7-6 8.0 (1.0) 63.8% 4.0 48 38.1 8 33.8 115 -0.2 85
Iowa 8-5 7.3 (-0.7) 63.0% 3.8 49 24.0 106 20.6 15 0.4 38
Texas 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 62.3% 3.7 50 25.1 99 21.5 21 0.1 63
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Indiana 5-7 5.8 (0.8) 61.6% 3.5 51 25.3 98 22.4 26 0.7 11
Marshall 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 61.6% 3.5 52 25.7 94 22.2 25 0.0 66
Wyoming 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 61.2% 3.4 53 20.7 119 17.7 7 0.4 32
Northern Illinois 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 60.8% 3.3 54 24.4 104 20.4 14 -0.7 119
Miami-OH 5-7 7.8 (2.8) 60.3% 3.2 55 27.2 80 24.3 39 0.3 47
UTSA 6-5 6.3 (0.3) 60.3% 3.2 56 24.0 107 21.3 20 0.5 23
Utah State 6-7 7.3 (1.3) 58.5% 2.8 57 27.3 78 24.7 42 0.1 56
Texas Tech 6-7 6.9 (0.9) 58.0% 2.7 58 33.6 25 30.3 88 -0.6 109
Army 10-3 7.2 (-2.8) 55.5% 2.2 59 32.4 31 29.4 80 -0.8 127
South Carolina 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 55.0% 2.1 60 26.0 88 23.5 36 -0.4 95
Texas A&M 7-6 6.2 (-0.8) 54.6% 2.0 61 29.9 48 28.5 71 0.6 18
North Texas 9-5 7.8 (-1.2) 54.2% 1.9 62 33.5 28 32.1 100 0.5 25
West Virginia 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 53.0% 1.7 63 33.6 26 31.6 96 -0.4 93
Kansas State 8-5 6.1 (-1.9) 51.2% 1.3 64 29.6 52 29.1 78 0.8 1
Duke 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 50.7% 1.2 65 25.8 90 24.5 41 -0.1 74
Boston College 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 49.9% 1.0 66 24.9 101 23.5 37 -0.3 91
SMU 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 49.7% 1.0 67 36.7 11 35.3 119 -0.4 98
Middle Tennessee 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 49.6% 0.9 68 25.6 95 25.0 47 0.3 44
Eastern Michigan 5-7 6.4 (1.4) 49.3% 0.9 69 26.0 87 24.7 44 -0.5 104
Navy 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 49.2% 0.9 70 31.2 38 29.8 83 -0.5 106
Louisiana Tech 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 48.6% 0.7 71 29.3 57 28.8 73 0.2 50
New Mexico State 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 48.4% 0.7 72 29.7 50 28.4 69 -0.6 107
Georgia Tech 5-6 5.8 (0.8) 47.4% 0.5 73 28.7 61 27.7 66 -0.4 103
Western Michigan 6-6 5.9 (-0.1) 46.0% 0.2 74 27.3 79 27.3 63 0.2 53
Buffalo 6-6 6.4 (0.4) 46.0% 0.2 75 29.6 53 28.7 72 -0.7 123
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
UAB 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 45.8% 0.1 76 25.7 93 25.6 50 0.0 67
UCLA 6-7 6.4 (0.4) 45.6% 0.1 77 35.4 15 35.4 120 0.1 65
Temple 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 44.4% -0.2 78 24.6 102 24.5 40 -0.3 87
Central Michigan 8-5 6.6 (-1.4) 42.1% -0.6 79 25.8 91 25.7 51 -0.7 118
Vanderbilt 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 39.8% -1.1 80 27.5 73 27.9 67 -0.8 128
Arizona State 7-6 5.4 (-1.6) 38.9% -1.3 81 31.5 35 32.9 105 0.1 60
Pittsburgh 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 38.4% -1.5 82 27.6 72 28.8 75 -0.2 82
Massachusetts 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 37.2% -1.7 83 28.5 66 29.5 81 -0.7 115
Western Kentucky 6-7 6.4 (0.4) 37.1% -1.7 84 27.4 77 28.9 76 -0.2 83
Virginia 6-7 6.1 (0.1) 36.8% -1.8 85 23.3 109 24.7 43 -0.4 96
Florida 4-7 4.8 (0.8) 35.2% -2.2 86 23.7 108 26.5 54 0.6 15
California 5-7 5.1 (0.1) 33.3% -2.6 87 26.6 84 29.3 79 0.1 57
Syracuse 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 33.1% -2.7 88 28.6 64 31.9 99 0.7 6
Tulane 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 32.3% -2.8 89 29.9 47 33.2 108 0.4 37
Florida International 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 31.3% -3.1 90 27.4 75 30.8 93 0.3 43
Arkansas 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 31.0% -3.1 91 30.4 43 33.4 112 -0.1 75
Kentucky 7-6 5.2 (-1.8) 30.9% -3.2 92 28.0 69 31.8 97 0.6 19
Colorado 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 30.6% -3.2 93 28.0 70 31.9 98 0.7 12
North Carolina 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 29.2% -3.6 94 26.7 83 30.7 92 0.4 33
UNLV 5-7 5.1 (0.1) 26.0% -4.4 95 29.8 49 33.7 114 -0.4 101
Georgia State 7-5 5.7 (-1.3) 25.1% -4.6 96 23.0 110 26.9 58 -0.8 126
Minnesota 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 24.6% -4.8 97 20.6 120 24.8 46 -0.6 110
South Alabama 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 24.3% -4.8 98 22.2 112 27.5 64 0.5 27
Idaho 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 23.2% -5.1 99 22.3 111 27.1 60 -0.4 94
Air Force 5-7 3.3 (-1.7) 22.5% -5.3 100 29.5 54 35.2 118 0.3 42
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
BYU 4-9 5.3 (1.3) 22.4% -5.4 101 19.6 121 24.8 45 -0.1 78
Cincinnati 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 21.0% -5.8 102 24.9 100 30.1 86 -0.6 111
Nebraska 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 20.4% -5.9 103 27.0 81 33.2 110 0.3 46
New Mexico 3-9 4.5 (1.5) 20.0% -6.1 104 24.2 105 30.7 91 0.4 30
UL-Monroe 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 18.9% -6.4 105 34.9 17 41.4 129 0.2 55
Baylor 1-11 3.1 (2.1) 18.5% -6.5 106 26.4 86 33.2 111 0.3 45
Tennessee 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 17.4% -6.9 107 20.9 118 28.3 68 0.5 26
Bowling Green 2-10 3.5 (1.5) 16.3% -7.3 108 28.4 67 36.2 123 0.6 20
Nevada 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 16.2% -7.3 109 28.8 59 35.7 121 -0.4 97
Rutgers 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 15.8% -7.4 110 18.5 126 26.0 53 0.1 62
Coastal Carolina 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 14.4% -7.9 111 25.3 97 33.0 107 -0.2 84
Akron 7-7 4.8 (-2.2) 12.8% -8.5 112 21.8 114 29.7 82 -0.7 122
UL-Lafayette 5-7 4.0 (-1.0) 12.7% -8.6 113 29.9 46 38.3 125 -0.2 81
Maryland 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 12.2% -8.8 114 22.1 113 30.1 85 -0.8 130
Old Dominion 5-7 4.0 (-1.0) 10.1% -9.7 115 19.5 122 29.0 77 -0.2 80
Tulsa 2-10 2.5 (0.5) 9.6% -10.0 116 29.7 51 39.5 128 -0.1 76
Texas State 2-10 2.6 (0.6) 9.4% -10.1 117 21.7 115 31.2 95 -0.6 108
Illinois 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 7.6% -11.0 118 18.9 124 30.3 89 0.4 34
Connecticut 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 7.0% -11.4 119 27.4 74 38.4 126 -0.4 102
Georgia Southern 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 6.8% -11.5 120 18.7 125 30.8 94 0.6 21
Hawaii 3-9 3.2 (0.2) 6.5% -11.7 121 25.9 89 36.8 124 -0.8 129
Ball State 2-10 2.7 (0.7) 4.3% -13.5 122 21.5 117 34.2 116 -0.8 124
East Carolina 3-9 2.5 (-0.5) 3.8% -13.9 123 29.3 56 43.5 130 0.2 48
Charlotte 1-11 1.2 (0.2) 3.1% -14.7 124 19.2 123 33.2 109 -0.7 121
Kansas 1-11 1.9 (0.9) 3.0% -14.8 125 17.9 127 32.8 104 0.2 54
Kent State 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 2.9% -15.0 126 16.0 129 30.3 87 -0.7 120
Oregon State 1-11 1.8 (0.8) 2.8% -15.1 127 24.5 103 39.0 127 -0.6 113
Rice 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 2.8% -15.1 128 21.7 116 36.1 122 -0.7 117
San Jose State 2-11 2.1 (0.1) 2.0% -16.2 129 17.8 128 34.8 117 0.7 4
UTEP 0-12 0.7 (0.7) 1.0% -18.6 130 14.9 130 32.9 106 -0.6 112