Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2013 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/6/14

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

S&P+
Rk
Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
1 Florida State 14-0 310.3 1 0 148.4 1 140.0 1 156.8 1 161.9 1 139.0 2 184.9 1
2 Alabama 11-2 270.9 2 0 128.7 10 126.4 8 131.0 10 142.3 5 125.5 9 159.1 4
3 Baylor 11-2 262.4 3 0 140.2 3 131.8 6 148.6 2 122.2 21 110.8 30 133.6 17
4 Stanford 11-3 257.7 5 1 121.4 17 119.2 17 123.7 17 136.3 9 125.7 8 146.8 10
5 Louisville 12-1 257.3 10 5 119.7 18 117.3 20 122.1 21 137.6 7 122.3 11 152.9 7
6 Clemson 11-2 256.7 6 0 126.0 12 122.1 11 129.8 12 130.7 12 121.0 12 140.4 13
7 Auburn 12-2 251.7 15 8 133.1 6 128.4 7 137.7 6 118.6 24 110.7 31 126.6 24
8 Michigan State 13-1 251.4 8 0 98.3 64 96.1 79 100.4 56 153.2 2 143.6 1 162.8 2
9 Wisconsin 9-4 251.4 4 -5 116.2 24 118.1 18 114.2 30 135.2 10 117.7 16 152.8 8
10 Oregon 11-2 251.4 9 -1 133.0 7 135.6 4 130.3 11 118.4 25 108.9 35 127.9 23
11 Ohio State 12-2 251.0 7 -4 140.8 2 137.1 2 144.5 3 110.3 42 99.7 65 120.8 34
12 South Carolina 11-2 248.8 14 2 126.8 11 120.0 15 133.7 8 122.0 22 113.3 23 130.6 20
13 USC 10-4 245.9 19 6 101.4 59 107.4 43 95.3 65 144.5 4 128.0 4 161.0 3
14 Missouri 12-2 245.4 16 2 119.4 19 114.2 24 124.6 15 126.0 17 116.4 19 135.5 16
15 Oklahoma State 10-3 243.4 13 -2 110.2 36 112.4 29 108.0 41 133.2 11 120.3 13 146.1 11
16 Arizona State 10-4 242.7 11 -5 124.6 14 120.5 14 128.7 13 118.1 26 115.3 22 120.9 33
17 Georgia 8-5 241.4 17 0 131.2 8 121.7 12 140.7 5 110.2 43 110.6 32 109.9 58
18 Texas A&M 9-4 239.5 18 0 139.2 4 135.6 3 142.7 4 100.3 76 97.4 79 103.2 75
19 LSU 10-3 238.5 20 1 125.5 13 123.7 10 127.3 14 113.0 35 111.9 29 114.2 45
20 Central Florida 12-1 237.7 29 9 130.1 9 126.2 9 134.0 7 107.6 51 98.1 76 117.2 39
21 Virginia Tech 8-5 236.7 12 -9 89.0 91 92.5 93 85.5 93 147.7 3 137.6 3 157.8 5
22 UCLA 10-3 236.3 25 3 118.7 20 115.1 23 122.2 20 117.6 27 110.1 33 125.2 27
23 Washington 9-4 235.9 21 -2 111.5 34 108.1 40 114.9 28 124.4 20 119.9 14 128.8 21
24 Oklahoma 11-2 232.7 28 4 117.3 22 110.7 33 124.0 16 115.4 33 106.3 41 124.4 28
25 Iowa 8-5 232.6 23 -2 95.8 70 99.0 70 92.6 71 136.9 8 124.9 10 148.8 9
S&P+
Rk
Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
26 Utah State 9-5 231.8 27 1 90.8 86 90.4 95 91.2 74 141.0 6 126.9 5 155.1 6
27 BYU 8-5 230.7 24 -3 104.0 48 106.3 47 101.7 51 126.7 16 117.0 17 136.4 15
28 Mississippi State 7-6 230.0 33 5 102.2 56 103.8 54 100.6 54 127.8 14 118.4 15 137.3 14
29 Ole Miss 8-5 229.5 30 1 104.5 47 102.6 58 106.4 47 125.0 18 116.6 18 133.3 18
30 Miami 9-4 229.2 22 -8 133.2 5 134.8 5 131.6 9 95.9 89 89.1 105 102.8 76
31 Kansas State 8-5 227.3 31 0 122.1 15 121.2 13 123.0 19 105.2 61 100.4 60 110.0 57
32 Bowling Green 10-4 224.7 26 -6 112.8 30 109.0 38 116.6 26 111.9 38 98.3 75 125.5 25
33 Arizona 8-5 224.6 39 6 108.3 42 109.5 37 107.0 45 116.3 31 112.0 28 120.7 35
34 Notre Dame 9-4 222.8 37 3 114.1 27 117.5 19 110.8 36 108.6 48 102.1 53 115.1 43
35 Georgia Tech 7-6 222.1 34 -1 118.1 21 115.1 22 121.0 23 104.0 68 95.4 87 112.5 50
36 East Carolina 10-3 221.9 36 0 116.1 25 113.2 27 119.0 24 105.8 59 101.5 54 110.1 56
37 North Carolina 7-6 221.8 38 1 110.4 35 107.9 42 112.9 33 111.4 39 109.3 34 113.5 46
38 Boise State 8-5 221.0 32 -6 108.7 40 106.6 44 110.7 37 112.4 36 105.3 44 119.4 36
39 Utah 5-7 219.5 42 3 102.4 53 103.6 55 101.2 53 117.1 29 112.5 27 121.7 32
40 Fresno State 11-2 218.8 35 -5 113.6 28 114.1 25 113.0 32 105.2 62 100.9 56 109.5 61
41 North Texas 9-4 218.7 44 3 94.3 72 100.2 65 88.3 81 124.5 19 108.1 37 140.9 12
42 Pittsburgh 7-6 218.1 51 9 100.7 62 98.7 71 102.7 48 117.4 28 115.9 21 119.0 37
43 TCU 4-8 217.8 41 -2 88.8 93 91.8 94 85.7 91 129.0 13 126.3 7 131.8 19
44 Michigan 7-6 216.4 40 -4 108.2 44 104.9 50 111.4 35 108.3 50 103.8 46 112.7 48
45 Texas Tech 8-5 216.4 50 5 117.2 23 112.6 28 121.7 22 99.2 78 96.0 83 102.5 77
46 Duke 10-4 216.1 43 -3 108.7 39 109.9 35 107.5 44 107.4 53 99.5 67 115.3 42
47 Indiana 5-7 214.5 45 -2 121.5 16 119.6 16 123.4 18 93.0 96 91.3 97 94.6 95
48 Texas 8-5 213.5 49 1 103.6 49 100.5 63 106.7 46 109.9 44 107.1 40 112.6 49
49 Florida 4-8 213.5 46 -3 86.1 100 87.4 100 84.8 95 127.3 15 126.7 6 128.0 22
50 Oregon State 7-6 213.3 60 10 111.8 33 115.9 21 107.7 43 101.6 74 99.2 70 103.9 72
S&P+
Rk
Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
51 Marshall 10-4 213.2 48 -3 114.6 26 112.2 31 117.0 25 98.6 79 96.6 81 100.6 81
52 Houston 8-5 212.9 47 -5 101.5 58 103.6 56 99.5 58 111.3 40 100.4 61 122.3 31
53 Penn State 7-5 211.2 52 -1 91.2 84 93.5 87 88.9 79 120.0 23 116.0 20 124.1 29
54 Nebraska 9-4 211.2 58 4 104.6 46 106.5 46 102.7 49 106.6 55 100.7 58 112.4 51
55 Toledo 7-5 211.1 53 -2 109.4 38 108.8 39 110.1 39 101.6 73 98.9 72 104.3 71
56 Cincinnati 9-4 209.7 56 0 103.0 50 105.4 49 100.5 55 106.7 54 102.4 52 111.0 54
57 Northwestern 5-7 208.9 55 -2 102.5 52 106.1 48 98.9 60 106.4 56 99.6 66 113.3 47
58 Maryland 7-6 208.3 57 -1 102.3 54 109.5 36 95.0 66 106.1 58 102.5 50 109.6 60
59 Ball State 10-3 207.4 59 0 112.4 32 109.9 34 114.8 29 95.0 93 91.8 94 98.2 88
60 Washington State 6-7 207.4 62 2 102.7 51 104.0 53 101.4 52 104.7 64 100.3 62 109.0 63
61 Boston College 7-6 206.9 54 -7 108.2 43 108.1 41 108.4 40 98.6 80 97.9 77 99.4 86
62 Navy 9-4 205.8 68 6 108.5 41 101.4 59 115.7 27 97.3 85 97.3 80 97.4 90
63 Northern Illinois 12-2 205.4 66 3 112.6 31 113.7 26 111.5 34 92.8 97 89.6 103 95.9 93
64 Vanderbilt 9-4 204.7 73 9 95.3 71 92.5 92 98.1 63 109.4 47 104.5 45 114.2 44
65 UTSA 7-5 204.2 65 0 101.2 61 106.6 45 95.8 64 103.0 71 99.4 68 106.5 69
66 Colorado State 8-6 203.4 64 -2 98.2 65 97.8 74 98.6 61 105.2 63 102.7 49 107.7 67
67 Tennessee 5-7 203.3 67 0 93.7 76 99.9 66 87.6 85 109.6 46 103.8 47 115.4 41
68 Rice 10-4 201.6 61 -7 94.0 73 94.3 84 93.6 68 107.6 52 106.2 42 109.1 62
69 San Jose State 6-6 201.4 71 2 113.2 29 112.3 30 114.1 31 88.2 106 85.9 111 90.6 103
70 Florida Atlantic 6-6 200.2 69 -1 88.0 95 90.2 96 85.7 92 112.3 37 113.3 24 111.2 53
71 Illinois 4-8 200.1 72 1 109.5 37 111.3 32 107.7 42 90.6 103 89.1 104 92.1 99
72 South Alabama 6-6 199.2 75 3 101.3 60 100.6 62 102.1 50 97.9 83 95.9 84 99.8 84
73 Tulane 7-6 199.1 81 8 82.4 104 87.3 101 77.6 107 116.6 30 108.0 38 125.2 26
74 Minnesota 8-5 198.2 70 -4 93.7 77 95.6 80 91.8 73 104.5 65 100.0 63 109.0 64
75 Syracuse 7-6 198.0 76 1 93.9 75 98.5 72 89.2 78 104.1 67 100.8 57 107.5 68
S&P+
Rk
Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
76 Virginia 2-10 197.9 74 -2 82.1 107 85.4 109 78.8 104 115.8 32 112.6 26 118.9 38
77 Western Kentucky 8-4 197.3 78 1 96.5 68 100.2 64 92.7 70 100.8 75 99.2 71 102.5 78
78 Buffalo 8-5 196.8 63 -15 87.1 96 87.1 103 87.0 88 109.8 45 103.6 48 116.0 40
79 Nevada 4-8 195.3 79 0 105.9 45 101.3 60 110.6 38 89.4 105 86.4 108 92.4 98
80 Arkansas 3-9 195.2 80 0 96.8 67 101.0 61 92.6 72 98.4 82 99.3 69 97.6 89
81 Wake Forest 4-8 194.9 77 -4 79.8 111 82.5 114 77.0 108 115.1 34 107.9 39 122.4 30
82 SMU 5-7 194.6 82 0 97.0 66 99.7 67 94.4 67 97.6 84 93.3 92 101.9 79
83 Memphis 3-9 192.7 84 1 84.2 102 86.8 104 81.6 101 108.5 49 108.1 36 108.8 65
84 San Diego State 8-5 192.6 87 3 82.0 108 84.4 112 79.6 102 110.6 41 113.3 25 107.9 66
85 N.C. State 3-9 192.5 83 -2 88.8 92 92.5 91 85.1 94 103.6 70 97.5 78 109.8 59
86 Tulsa 3-9 191.6 85 -1 86.2 99 88.4 99 83.9 98 105.4 60 100.0 64 110.9 55
87 UL-Lafayette 9-4 189.7 88 1 101.9 57 104.4 52 99.3 59 87.9 108 85.3 114 90.5 104
88 Middle Tennessee 8-5 189.4 86 -2 93.9 74 99.3 68 88.6 80 95.5 92 91.6 96 99.4 85
89 UNLV 7-6 187.6 90 1 91.4 83 94.7 81 88.0 84 96.2 88 95.4 88 97.0 91
90 Iowa State 3-9 187.5 89 -1 90.4 88 96.3 77 84.4 96 97.2 86 93.7 91 100.6 82
91 Arkansas State 8-5 186.9 98 7 91.0 85 93.8 85 88.2 83 95.9 90 95.6 86 96.2 92
92 Hawaii 1-11 186.6 92 0 82.6 103 88.8 98 76.4 109 104.0 69 101.4 55 106.5 70
93 Kentucky 2-10 185.3 96 3 92.9 81 98.4 73 87.4 87 92.4 98 91.0 98 93.7 96
94 Rutgers 6-7 185.1 91 -3 89.3 90 92.8 90 85.8 90 95.8 91 98.7 73 93.0 97
95 Wyoming 5-7 184.4 93 -2 93.5 78 96.6 76 90.4 76 91.0 100 90.0 100 91.9 100
96 Ohio 7-6 184.2 100 4 93.5 79 96.3 78 90.6 75 90.8 101 89.8 101 91.7 101
97 Connecticut 3-9 183.6 97 0 80.6 110 85.3 110 76.0 110 103.0 72 102.5 51 103.5 73
98 West Virginia 4-8 183.5 95 -3 86.8 97 94.6 82 79.0 103 96.7 87 94.9 90 98.5 87
99 Troy 6-6 183.3 99 0 98.7 63 99.2 69 98.2 62 84.5 112 86.3 109 82.8 114
100 Akron 5-7 183.0 94 -6 78.5 113 81.5 116 75.4 111 104.5 66 105.5 43 103.4 74
S&P+
Rk
Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
101 Colorado 4-8 181.9 101 0 88.7 94 94.3 83 83.0 99 93.2 95 96.0 82 90.4 105
102 California 1-11 179.9 105 3 89.9 89 93.5 86 86.2 89 90.1 104 91.8 95 88.3 108
103 Temple 2-10 179.7 102 -1 96.3 69 102.6 57 90.0 77 83.4 115 82.7 116 84.1 112
104 South Florida 2-10 179.1 103 -1 72.9 118 79.5 121 66.3 117 106.2 57 100.7 59 111.6 52
105 New Mexico 3-9 179.1 104 -1 102.2 55 104.4 51 100.0 57 76.8 121 78.1 121 75.6 121
106 Kent State 4-8 177.4 106 0 86.8 98 89.5 97 84.1 97 90.6 102 89.6 102 91.7 102
107 UL-Monroe 6-6 176.6 107 0 82.4 105 86.4 107 78.4 106 94.2 94 92.7 93 95.8 94
108 Texas State 6-6 174.1 108 0 74.7 116 81.4 117 68.1 116 99.3 77 98.6 74 100.1 83
109 Air Force 2-10 171.9 110 1 93.1 80 93.1 88 93.1 69 78.8 120 81.6 118 76.0 120
110 Army 2-10 171.8 109 -1 90.7 87 93.1 89 88.2 82 81.2 119 79.8 120 82.5 115
111 Kansas 3-9 170.0 111 0 71.4 121 81.0 118 61.8 122 98.6 81 95.9 85 101.2 80
112 Purdue 1-11 167.7 112 0 75.5 115 85.2 111 65.7 118 92.3 99 95.1 89 89.4 106
113 Central Michigan 6-6 167.6 113 0 82.4 106 86.1 108 78.6 105 85.2 110 85.6 113 84.8 111
114 UAB 2-10 165.5 114 0 92.2 82 96.9 75 87.5 86 73.2 124 74.1 124 72.4 124
115 Idaho 1-11 162.7 115 0 74.7 117 80.1 119 69.3 115 88.0 107 91.0 99 85.0 110
116 Louisiana Tech 5-7 161.3 116 0 77.9 114 84.2 113 71.5 113 83.4 114 84.8 115 82.1 116
117 Western Michigan 1-11 159.8 117 0 72.1 120 79.8 120 64.4 119 87.7 109 86.9 107 88.5 107
118 UTEP 2-10 159.0 118 0 85.0 101 87.1 102 82.9 100 74.0 122 75.6 122 72.4 123
119 Southern Miss 1-11 158.0 119 0 72.8 119 81.9 115 63.6 120 85.2 111 89.0 106 81.4 117
120 Eastern Michigan 2-10 154.1 120 0 80.8 109 86.7 106 74.9 112 73.3 123 74.4 123 72.2 125
121 Massachusetts 1-11 152.1 121 0 69.7 122 76.6 123 62.8 121 82.4 117 81.2 119 83.5 113
122 Georgia State 0-12 151.9 123 1 69.6 123 78.0 122 61.3 123 82.2 118 85.9 110 78.6 119
123 New Mexico State 2-10 151.1 122 -1 78.9 112 86.8 105 71.0 114 72.2 125 70.8 125 73.7 122
124 Florida International 1-11 143.0 125 1 59.8 124 68.3 124 51.3 125 83.2 116 85.7 112 80.8 118
125 Miami (Ohio) 0-12 142.7 124 -1 58.6 125 64.2 125 52.9 124 84.1 113 81.8 117 86.4 109