Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2016 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 9/17/16

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Michigan 3-0 2.8 (-0.2) 97.7% 24.6 1 4 3 36.1 28 10.8 2 -0.7 82
Alabama 3-0 2.4 (-0.6) 97.2% 23.6 2 1 -1 36.3 23 13.2 3 0.5 48
LSU 2-1 2.0 (0.0) 96.7% 22.7 3 3 0 38.4 13 16.2 8 0.5 49
Washington 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 96.3% 22.2 4 9 5 35.1 33 13.9 4 1.0 39
Ohio State 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 96.3% 22.2 5 7 2 39.3 10 18.9 13 1.8 9
Clemson 3-0 2.6 (-0.4) 95.9% 21.7 6 2 -4 36.5 20 14.7 6 -0.2 70
Oklahoma 1-2 1.4 (0.4) 95.7% 21.3 7 5 -2 44.5 2 23.4 35 0.2 61
Louisville 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 95.2% 20.7 8 14 6 44.3 3 22.1 26 -1.4 112
Florida 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 94.8% 20.3 9 16 7 29.3 62 10.4 1 1.4 18
Florida State 2-1 1.7 (-0.3) 94.7% 20.2 10 6 -4 41.3 7 23.0 30 1.9 3
Ole Miss 1-2 1.9 (0.9) 93.3% 18.9 11 8 -3 42.8 5 25.3 42 1.3 20
Stanford 2-0 1.8 (-0.2) 90.6% 16.7 12 12 0 36.8 19 21.8 24 1.8 7
Tennessee 3-0 2.3 (-0.7) 90.4% 16.6 13 10 -3 33.7 42 17.9 11 0.7 43
Baylor 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 89.7% 16.1 14 15 1 37.5 17 21.6 23 0.2 60
Miami 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 88.4% 15.3 15 33 18 36.4 22 21.1 19 -0.1 68
USC 1-2 1.1 (0.1) 88.3% 15.2 16 11 -5 34.9 35 20.9 18 1.2 26
Oregon 2-1 2.8 (0.8) 88.3% 15.2 17 13 -4 43.9 4 28.8 69 0.1 65
UCLA 2-1 1.9 (-0.1) 88.1% 15.1 18 18 0 37.8 15 22.3 27 -0.5 74
Texas A&M 3-0 2.7 (-0.3) 87.3% 14.7 19 21 2 34.5 38 20.7 16 0.9 40
Wisconsin 3-0 2.6 (-0.4) 86.0% 14.0 20 29 9 28.1 77 16.0 7 1.8 6
Notre Dame 1-2 1.5 (0.5) 85.7% 13.8 21 17 -4 42.5 6 28.0 59 -0.6 80
Auburn 1-2 1.2 (0.2) 84.6% 13.2 22 24 2 34.5 37 22.3 28 1.0 36
TCU 2-1 2.6 (0.6) 84.1% 13.0 23 31 8 40.8 9 28.3 63 0.5 47
Virginia Tech 2-1 2.2 (0.2) 83.9% 12.9 24 37 13 28.4 74 16.2 9 0.7 41
Oklahoma State 2-1 2.1 (0.1) 83.7% 12.8 25 22 -3 38.6 12 27.6 55 1.8 8
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
North Carolina 2-1 2.2 (0.2) 83.5% 12.7 26 28 2 41.1 8 30.0 73 1.7 10
Georgia 3-0 2.0 (-1.0) 82.5% 12.2 27 19 -8 31.6 50 17.7 10 -1.7 120
Penn State 2-1 2.2 (0.2) 82.3% 12.2 28 26 -2 31.0 54 20.5 14 1.7 11
Nebraska 3-0 2.2 (-0.8) 82.3% 12.2 29 25 -4 38.0 14 27.1 52 1.2 28
Michigan State 2-0 1.7 (-0.3) 81.7% 11.9 30 27 -3 34.5 36 21.2 20 -1.4 108
Arkansas 3-0 1.7 (-1.3) 80.3% 11.3 31 23 -8 36.2 25 23.7 37 -1.1 100
Mississippi State 1-2 1.7 (0.7) 80.3% 11.3 32 20 -12 33.0 45 22.8 29 1.2 30
Iowa 2-1 2.6 (0.6) 78.3% 10.5 33 35 2 34.2 40 25.2 41 1.5 15
Boise State 2-0 1.5 (-0.5) 77.7% 10.3 34 41 7 37.5 18 26.1 46 -1.1 99
Minnesota 2-0 1.8 (-0.2) 77.4% 10.2 35 36 1 33.1 44 24.9 40 1.9 2
BYU 1-2 1.7 (0.7) 76.1% 9.7 36 34 -2 29.9 59 21.3 21 1.0 38
Houston 3-0 2.5 (-0.5) 75.6% 9.5 37 45 8 32.3 47 23.3 34 0.5 45
South Florida 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 75.1% 9.3 38 39 1 36.2 24 28.5 68 1.6 13
Texas 2-1 2.1 (0.1) 75.1% 9.3 39 30 -9 36.5 21 27.9 57 0.7 42
West Virginia 2-0 1.8 (-0.2) 74.0% 8.9 40 40 0 37.6 16 28.3 66 -0.4 73
Pittsburgh 2-1 1.8 (-0.2) 73.9% 8.9 41 32 -9 34.1 41 24.0 38 -1.2 102
Western Kentucky 2-1 1.7 (-0.3) 70.7% 7.7 42 42 0 35.6 31 28.0 58 0.1 63
Utah 3-0 2.3 (-0.7) 69.4% 7.3 43 38 -5 24.4 98 18.3 12 1.3 21
Indiana 2-0 1.8 (-0.2) 67.9% 6.8 44 51 7 33.7 43 28.1 60 1.2 29
NC State 2-1 2.8 (0.8) 67.4% 6.6 45 43 -2 35.5 32 28.3 64 -0.5 76
Toledo 3-0 3.0 (0.0) 64.6% 5.8 46 49 3 31.7 49 24.1 39 -1.8 127
San Diego State 3-0 2.2 (-0.8) 63.9% 5.5 47 46 -1 29.3 63 23.2 32 -0.6 77
Syracuse 1-2 1.0 (0.0) 61.4% 4.8 48 50 2 34.4 39 30.8 77 1.2 27
Arizona State 3-0 2.3 (-0.7) 60.6% 4.5 49 47 -2 36.2 26 33.5 94 1.9 4
Missouri 1-2 1.7 (0.7) 59.4% 4.2 50 60 10 27.3 81 23.0 31 -0.1 67
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Maryland 3-0 2.6 (-0.4) 59.1% 4.1 51 53 2 32.6 46 28.9 70 0.3 55
Georgia Tech 3-0 2.2 (-0.8) 59.0% 4.1 52 54 2 31.0 52 28.1 61 1.1 31
California 2-1 2.2 (0.2) 58.7% 4.0 53 55 2 39.0 11 35.4 106 0.3 53
Texas Tech 2-1 2.1 (0.1) 57.1% 3.5 54 44 -10 46.0 1 41.4 127 -1.2 101
Georgia Southern 3-0 2.3 (-0.7) 56.1% 3.2 55 48 -7 29.1 68 27.2 54 1.3 23
Temple 1-2 1.2 (0.2) 55.4% 3.0 56 52 -4 23.6 104 22.0 25 1.3 22
Arizona 2-1 2.0 (0.0) 54.4% 2.7 57 65 8 35.8 30 34.5 99 1.4 17
Kansas State 1-1 1.1 (0.1) 54.3% 2.7 58 78 20 31.0 51 27.0 51 -1.3 107
Memphis 2-0 2.0 (0.0) 54.2% 2.6 59 68 9 26.1 90 25.4 43 1.9 1
Western Michigan 3-0 2.3 (-0.7) 53.9% 2.5 60 62 2 36.1 27 34.2 98 0.7 44
Illinois 1-2 1.1 (0.1) 52.4% 2.1 61 63 2 27.3 82 26.2 47 1.0 37
Washington State 1-2 1.7 (0.7) 51.6% 1.9 62 64 2 35.9 29 32.3 84 -1.7 124
Duke 1-2 1.4 (0.4) 51.1% 1.7 63 69 6 24.2 99 21.5 22 -0.9 90
Marshall 1-1 1.2 (0.2) 50.5% 1.6 64 61 -3 28.9 70 25.9 44 -1.4 109
Northwestern 1-2 1.7 (0.7) 50.5% 1.6 65 58 -7 23.1 106 20.7 15 -0.9 88
Southern Miss 2-1 1.7 (-0.3) 50.3% 1.5 66 57 -9 28.7 71 28.5 67 1.3 24
Colorado 2-1 2.2 (0.2) 48.7% 1.0 67 75 8 29.1 69 26.9 49 -1.2 103
Wake Forest 3-0 2.8 (-0.2) 47.8% 0.8 68 66 -2 24.0 103 23.5 36 0.3 58
South Carolina 2-1 1.2 (-0.8) 47.5% 0.7 69 74 5 26.4 87 27.2 53 1.5 16
Boston College 1-2 1.8 (0.8) 47.3% 0.6 70 56 -14 16.5 124 14.4 5 -1.5 116
Air Force 2-0 1.9 (-0.1) 47.0% 0.5 71 77 6 31.0 53 30.7 76 0.2 62
Cincinnati 2-1 2.1 (0.1) 46.3% 0.3 72 70 -2 30.9 55 29.6 71 -0.9 91
Appalachian State 1-2 1.4 (0.4) 46.3% 0.3 73 59 -14 28.4 75 26.2 48 -1.8 126
Navy 3-0 2.3 (-0.7) 45.6% 0.1 74 67 -7 31.7 48 30.1 74 -1.5 115
Virginia 0-3 0.8 (0.8) 43.3% -0.5 75 71 -4 30.6 56 32.3 86 1.2 25
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Vanderbilt 1-2 0.9 (-0.1) 42.7% -0.7 76 72 -4 21.1 118 20.8 17 -1.1 97
Utah State 2-1 1.6 (-0.4) 42.5% -0.8 77 76 -1 26.9 85 26.9 50 -0.8 85
Central Michigan 3-0 2.7 (-0.3) 39.8% -1.6 78 79 1 28.3 76 28.3 65 -1.6 118
Connecticut 2-1 1.3 (-0.7) 37.1% -2.4 79 81 2 22.3 110 26.1 45 1.4 19
Louisiana Tech 1-2 1.7 (0.7) 35.7% -2.8 80 82 2 35.0 34 37.7 118 -0.1 69
Middle Tennessee 2-1 2.3 (0.3) 35.6% -2.9 81 89 8 29.3 61 31.2 81 -1.0 95
Oregon State 1-1 1.2 (0.2) 35.4% -2.9 82 86 4 24.1 100 28.2 62 1.1 33
Tulsa 2-1 2.0 (0.0) 33.7% -3.5 83 88 5 28.4 73 32.2 83 0.3 59
San Jose State 1-2 1.0 (0.0) 31.8% -4.1 84 87 3 30.4 57 34.8 102 0.4 50
Bowling Green 1-2 0.7 (-0.3) 30.4% -4.6 85 73 -12 29.7 60 33.3 90 -1.0 92
Iowa State 0-3 0.6 (0.6) 30.0% -4.7 86 80 -6 25.8 91 30.8 78 0.4 51
East Carolina 2-1 1.8 (-0.2) 28.9% -5.1 87 84 -3 29.3 65 32.9 88 -1.4 111
Ohio 1-2 1.5 (0.5) 28.8% -5.1 88 91 3 27.1 83 33.3 92 1.1 32
Colorado State 2-1 2.0 (0.0) 27.9% -5.4 89 93 4 27.5 78 34.7 100 1.8 5
Northern Illinois 0-3 0.7 (0.7) 26.9% -5.7 90 83 -7 29.3 66 33.2 89 -1.8 128
Purdue 1-1 1.0 (0.0) 26.5% -5.9 91 90 -1 29.2 67 33.3 91 -1.8 125
Rutgers 2-1 1.4 (-0.6) 26.5% -5.9 92 85 -7 27.0 84 32.6 87 -0.2 71
Ball State 2-1 2.0 (0.0) 25.8% -6.1 93 103 10 24.1 102 30.5 75 0.3 56
Troy 2-1 1.8 (-0.2) 24.6% -6.6 94 97 3 25.4 93 32.3 85 0.3 54
Kentucky 1-2 1.7 (0.7) 23.9% -6.8 95 92 -3 30.0 58 35.2 104 -1.7 121
Nevada 2-1 1.5 (-0.5) 21.2% -7.9 96 96 0 28.6 72 35.9 111 -0.6 78
Arkansas State 0-3 0.4 (0.4) 20.8% -8.0 97 95 -2 25.0 96 31.5 82 -1.5 117
Central Florida 1-2 1.4 (0.4) 20.7% -8.1 98 98 0 18.5 122 27.7 56 1.1 34
Akron 2-1 1.8 (-0.2) 20.0% -8.4 99 94 -5 26.1 89 34.1 97 -0.3 72
SMU 2-1 1.9 (-0.1) 19.2% -8.7 100 100 0 29.3 64 36.3 115 -1.7 123
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Last
Wk
Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
New Mexico 1-2 2.2 (1.2) 15.6% -10.3 101 102 1 26.2 88 35.7 110 -0.9 89
Fresno State 1-2 1.0 (0.0) 15.4% -10.4 102 101 -1 20.6 120 29.8 72 -1.3 106
Wyoming 2-1 1.5 (-0.5) 14.5% -10.9 103 112 9 26.5 86 35.9 112 -1.4 113
Florida Atlantic 1-2 0.6 (-0.4) 14.1% -11.1 104 99 -5 22.7 108 35.3 105 1.6 14
Old Dominion 1-2 1.0 (0.0) 13.3% -11.5 105 104 -1 25.3 94 35.6 109 -1.2 104
Texas State 1-1 0.3 (-0.7) 13.2% -11.6 106 114 8 25.6 92 38.8 122 1.6 12
UL-Lafayette 2-1 1.9 (-0.1) 11.9% -12.3 107 107 0 24.1 101 36.5 116 0.1 64
UNLV 1-2 1.1 (0.1) 11.6% -12.5 108 108 0 27.4 80 38.8 121 -1.0 94
UTSA 1-2 1.3 (0.3) 11.4% -12.6 109 111 2 21.1 119 33.7 95 0.0 66
Kent State 1-2 1.1 (0.1) 11.1% -12.8 110 105 -5 11.3 128 23.3 33 -0.9 87
Georgia State 0-3 0.3 (0.3) 9.8% -13.6 111 109 -2 21.9 112 33.8 96 -1.7 122
South Alabama 1-2 0.6 (-0.4) 9.0% -14.1 112 116 4 21.8 115 34.7 101 -1.2 105
Kansas 1-2 1.3 (0.3) 8.9% -14.2 113 113 0 22.2 111 34.9 103 -1.5 114
Eastern Michigan 2-1 2.0 (0.0) 8.7% -14.4 114 122 8 25.2 95 39.8 124 0.3 57
Miami (Ohio) 0-3 0.8 (0.8) 7.5% -15.3 115 118 3 21.8 114 35.5 108 -1.6 119
Idaho 1-2 0.8 (-0.2) 7.4% -15.4 116 110 -6 23.5 105 38.4 119 -0.5 75
Florida International 0-3 0.3 (0.3) 7.2% -15.5 117 119 2 21.3 116 36.2 114 -0.7 83
UTEP 1-2 1.0 (0.0) 7.2% -15.5 118 125 7 24.6 97 39.3 123 -0.8 86
Hawaii 1-3 1.0 (0.0) 6.9% -15.8 119 115 -4 21.9 113 38.8 120 1.0 35
New Mexico State 1-2 0.5 (-0.5) 6.6% -16.1 120 117 -3 27.5 79 44.1 128 0.5 46
Tulane 1-2 1.5 (0.5) 6.2% -16.4 121 121 0 15.1 126 30.9 79 -0.7 81
Army 3-0 2.5 (-0.5) 5.4% -17.2 122 126 4 21.2 117 37.0 117 -1.4 110
Buffalo 0-2 0.5 (0.5) 5.2% -17.4 123 106 -17 19.1 121 35.5 107 -1.0 93
North Texas 1-2 1.1 (0.1) 5.2% -17.5 124 127 3 15.6 125 33.4 93 0.3 52
Massachusetts 1-2 0.9 (-0.1) 5.2% -17.5 125 128 3 14.5 127 30.9 80 -1.1 98
UL-Monroe 1-2 1.6 (0.6) 4.7% -18.0 126 124 -2 22.5 109 39.9 125 -0.6 79
Rice 0-3 0.4 (0.4) 4.5% -18.3 127 120 -7 22.9 107 40.1 126 -1.0 96
Charlotte 1-2 1.0 (0.0) 3.7% -19.4 128 123 -5 17.3 123 36.0 113 -0.7 84