Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 9/27/14

NOTE: For the first seven weeks of the season, opponent-adjusted data is limited until preseason projections are filtered out of the equations.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
1 Alabama 4-0 254.7 1 0 123.8 6 130.9 6
2 Ole Miss 4-0 253.9 8 6 118.7 12 135.2 2
3 Oklahoma 4-0 253.2 3 0 122.4 9 130.9 5
4 Stanford 3-1 252.0 6 2 104.3 50 147.7 1
5 Mississippi State 4-0 251.8 9 4 129.3 2 122.6 10
6 Baylor 4-0 251.4 2 -4 117.4 18 134.0 3
7 LSU 4-1 247.1 13 6 120.2 10 126.9 8
8 Oregon 4-0 245.7 4 -4 134.3 1 111.4 28
9 Auburn 4-0 242.7 14 5 120.1 11 122.5 11
10 Florida State 4-0 241.3 7 -3 125.0 5 116.3 17
11 Louisville 4-1 239.5 11 0 107.3 44 132.1 4
12 West Virginia 2-2 238.8 38 26 126.1 4 112.7 23
13 Michigan State 3-1 238.0 10 -3 126.9 3 111.1 29
14 Texas A&M 5-0 235.6 5 -9 118.5 15 117.1 14
15 Virginia Tech 3-2 229.4 33 18 101.1 68 128.3 7
16 Arkansas 3-2 229.2 31 15 123.4 7 105.8 45
17 TCU 3-0 229.2 12 -5 116.1 20 113.1 22
18 Miami 3-2 229.2 27 9 118.2 16 111.0 30
19 Georgia 3-1 228.8 16 -3 123.0 8 105.8 44
20 Ohio State 3-1 228.4 17 -3 118.7 13 109.7 36
21 Boise State 3-2 227.8 21 0 110.9 33 116.9 15
22 Wisconsin 3-1 227.7 15 -7 109.8 37 117.9 13
23 USC 3-1 227.5 36 13 118.6 14 108.9 38
24 UCLA 4-0 226.5 34 10 115.0 23 111.5 27
25 Clemson 2-2 226.3 26 1 101.9 62 124.4 9
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
26 South Carolina 3-2 225.5 23 -3 115.6 22 109.9 34
27 Notre Dame 4-0 224.7 18 -9 114.0 27 110.7 32
28 Marshall 4-0 224.6 22 -6 112.3 31 112.3 24
29 Kansas State 3-1 223.3 37 8 106.5 46 116.8 16
30 Oklahoma State 3-1 223.3 20 -10 109.5 39 113.8 21
31 Minnesota 4-1 222.2 48 17 101.3 67 120.8 12
32 Nebraska 5-0 221.5 35 3 114.4 25 107.1 43
33 BYU 4-0 219.0 32 -1 116.4 19 102.6 57
34 Tennessee 2-2 218.3 46 12 104.2 51 114.1 20
35 Michigan 2-3 218.0 19 -16 105.9 48 112.1 25
36 Penn State 4-1 217.3 25 -11 101.5 65 115.9 18
37 Florida 2-1 217.2 45 8 115.6 21 101.5 63
38 Pittsburgh 3-2 216.4 29 -9 113.7 29 102.8 55
39 East Carolina 3-1 215.1 41 2 113.3 30 101.8 62
40 Navy 2-3 215.0 44 4 114.0 26 101.0 66
41 Washington State 2-3 214.2 64 23 109.6 38 104.6 48
42 Missouri 4-1 213.8 28 -14 101.8 63 112.0 26
43 N.C. State 4-1 212.7 43 0 114.9 24 97.8 77
44 Virginia 3-2 212.3 53 9 102.3 60 109.9 35
45 Maryland 4-1 212.0 56 11 101.3 66 110.6 33
46 Rutgers 4-1 211.4 54 8 107.8 43 103.6 50
47 Georgia Tech 4-0 210.5 47 0 117.4 17 93.1 101
48 Memphis 2-2 210.5 71 23 102.0 61 108.5 39
49 Arizona State 3-1 210.4 24 -25 110.9 32 99.5 69
50 Texas 2-2 209.5 58 8 100.0 73 109.5 37
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
51 Arizona 4-0 208.7 42 -9 110.0 36 98.7 76
52 Washington 4-1 208.6 51 -1 109.3 41 99.3 70
53 California 3-1 208.5 55 2 113.9 28 94.5 95
54 Utah 3-1 207.5 30 -24 96.5 87 111.0 31
55 Boston College 3-2 205.9 50 -5 103.3 53 102.6 56
56 Kentucky 3-1 204.7 67 11 96.7 85 108.0 42
57 Cincinnati 2-1 204.7 60 3 110.1 35 94.5 94
58 Northwestern 2-2 204.6 73 15 90.2 107 114.4 19
59 Iowa State 1-3 204.2 104 45 110.6 34 93.6 99
60 Northern Illinois 2-1 204.1 65 5 101.6 64 102.5 58
61 Texas Tech 2-2 203.8 49 -12 108.5 42 95.3 88
62 Iowa 4-1 203.6 59 -3 95.2 89 108.4 40
63 Oregon State 3-1 202.8 39 -24 99.8 74 102.9 54
64 Illinois 3-2 202.7 63 -1 100.8 70 101.8 61
65 Colorado State 3-1 202.5 70 5 106.6 45 95.9 84
66 Indiana 2-2 202.2 40 -26 102.4 59 99.8 68
67 Duke 4-1 202.0 52 -15 98.5 75 103.5 52
68 UTSA 1-3 201.8 61 -7 93.7 94 108.1 41
69 Central Florida 1-2 201.1 57 -12 106.4 47 94.7 92
70 Georgia Southern 3-2 200.9 78 8 103.1 54 97.7 80
71 Akron 2-2 200.8 108 37 97.5 81 103.3 53
72 North Carolina 2-2 198.1 66 -6 102.7 55 95.4 86
73 Western Kentucky 2-2 198.0 76 3 102.6 56 95.3 87
74 Toledo 3-2 197.9 62 -12 109.4 40 88.5 115
75 Syracuse 2-2 197.6 69 -6 98.5 76 99.1 73
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
76 Louisiana Tech 2-3 197.2 77 1 98.1 79 99.1 72
77 Air Force 3-1 197.1 85 8 95.1 90 102.0 59
78 San Jose State 1-3 196.2 83 5 101.0 69 95.2 89
79 South Alabama 2-2 196.1 100 21 91.1 104 105.0 46
80 Wyoming 3-2 196.1 88 8 92.4 100 103.7 49
81 Florida Atlantic 2-3 194.8 102 21 103.4 52 91.4 106
82 Western Michigan 2-2 194.1 74 -8 102.6 57 91.6 105
83 Colorado 2-3 193.7 89 6 96.5 86 97.2 83
84 Vanderbilt 1-4 193.6 80 -4 92.1 102 101.5 64
85 Arkansas State 2-2 192.8 87 2 97.3 82 95.5 85
86 Rice 1-3 192.5 84 -2 102.5 58 90.0 109
87 UAB 2-2 192.0 81 -6 97.3 83 94.7 93
88 Temple 3-1 191.8 98 10 92.8 98 99.0 74
89 Purdue 2-3 191.7 92 3 92.5 99 99.2 71
90 Middle Tennessee 3-2 191.6 107 17 100.6 71 90.9 107
91 Nevada 3-1 191.5 82 -9 93.8 92 97.8 79
92 Utah State 2-2 190.4 68 -24 85.5 115 104.9 47
93 UL-Lafayette 1-3 189.9 101 8 98.3 78 91.6 104
94 Ohio 3-2 189.0 106 12 96.0 88 92.9 102
95 San Diego State 2-2 188.7 75 -20 100.6 72 88.1 116
96 Fresno State 2-3 188.6 95 -1 93.5 95 95.1 90
97 Houston 2-2 188.5 72 -25 88.0 112 100.5 67
98 Central Michigan 2-3 186.8 90 -8 92.9 97 93.8 96
99 Kansas 2-2 186.4 91 -8 84.5 120 101.9 60
100 UTEP 2-2 186.2 99 -1 94.2 91 92.0 103
Rk Team Record S&P+ Last Wk Change Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
101 Tulane 1-4 186.1 93 -8 92.3 101 93.8 97
102 Buffalo 3-2 186.0 103 1 96.8 84 89.2 113
103 Army 1-3 184.7 96 -7 104.9 49 79.7 128
104 Florida International 2-3 183.9 116 12 85.1 117 98.8 75
105 Bowling Green 3-2 183.9 86 -19 98.5 77 85.5 121
106 South Florida 2-3 183.8 113 7 89.9 108 93.8 98
107 Tulsa 1-3 183.7 112 5 93.5 96 90.2 108
108 Hawaii 1-3 183.4 94 -14 79.9 127 103.5 51
109 UL-Monroe 3-1 182.5 97 -12 85.1 118 97.4 81
110 New Mexico 1-3 182.1 79 -31 98.0 80 84.1 123
111 Texas State 2-2 181.6 105 -6 91.8 103 89.8 111
112 SMU 0-4 181.5 120 8 84.2 121 97.3 82
113 Wake Forest 1-3 181.0 111 -2 79.9 126 101.0 65
114 Old Dominion 3-2 180.1 127 13 93.8 93 86.3 119
115 Miami (Ohio) 0-5 180.1 115 0 85.3 116 94.8 91
116 Connecticut 1-4 178.2 109 -7 80.4 125 97.8 78
117 Troy 0-5 177.0 114 -3 91.1 105 85.9 120
118 Ball State 1-3 176.4 110 -8 83.3 122 93.1 100
119 Massachusetts 0-5 175.6 121 2 88.7 110 86.9 117
120 Kent State 0-4 174.4 123 3 84.7 119 89.7 112
121 Southern Miss 2-3 173.0 125 4 83.1 123 89.9 110
122 Georgia State 1-3 172.8 122 0 89.2 109 83.6 125
123 UNLV 1-4 172.6 118 -5 87.4 113 85.2 122
124 Idaho 0-4 172.3 119 -5 90.9 106 81.4 127
125 New Mexico State 2-3 171.5 124 -1 88.5 111 83.0 126
126 Appalachian State 1-3 169.4 126 0 85.6 114 83.7 124
127 North Texas 2-2 168.0 117 -10 81.3 124 86.7 118
128 Eastern Michigan 1-3 161.9 128 0 72.9 128 89.0 114