Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/12/15

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included at the end of a season: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Team Record S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
1 Ohio State 14-1 280.8 140.7 1 140.1 2
2 Alabama 12-2 272.8 134.9 2 138.0 3
3 Oregon 13-2 257.6 131.8 3 125.8 8
4 Marshall 13-1 255.6 118.6 15 137.1 4
5 Ole Miss 8-4 247.9 120.2 12 127.7 7
6 Baylor 11-2 247.6 122.7 9 124.9 10
7 Clemson 10-3 247.1 105.5 44 141.6 1
8 Michigan State 11-2 246.9 122.0 10 124.9 9
9 TCU 12-1 246.5 117.8 16 128.7 5
10 Mississippi State 10-3 244.5 123.6 6 120.9 16
11 Georgia 10-3 243.0 122.9 8 120.1 17
12 Wisconsin 11-3 240.2 118.9 13 121.3 15
13 Auburn 8-5 237.4 124.1 5 113.3 29
14 Oklahoma 8-5 236.9 122.9 7 114.0 26
15 Boise State 12-2 235.0 118.9 14 116.1 22
16 Stanford 8-5 234.9 107.0 39 127.9 6
17 Arkansas 7-6 234.6 115.3 20 119.4 18
18 Florida State 13-1 234.5 121.5 11 113.0 30
19 LSU 8-5 233.0 110.6 31 122.4 12
20 Georgia Tech 11-3 231.8 128.6 4 103.2 46
21 Louisville 9-4 231.2 109.8 32 121.4 14
22 UCLA 10-3 225.7 116.1 18 109.6 36
23 USC 9-4 224.2 112.8 24 111.3 32
24 Miami 6-7 222.3 108.9 35 113.4 28
25 West Virginia 7-6 220.9 106.9 40 114.0 25
Rk Team Record S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
26 Missouri 11-3 219.4 104.9 48 114.6 23
27 Tennessee 7-6 219.4 105.2 47 114.2 24
28 Virginia Tech 7-6 218.9 94.0 88 124.9 11
29 Louisiana Tech 9-5 218.6 100.1 60 118.4 19
30 Kansas State 9-4 218.2 111.3 30 107.0 39
31 Boston College 7-6 217.4 111.4 29 106.0 43
32 Penn State 7-6 217.2 94.8 82 122.4 13
33 Nebraska 9-4 215.8 109.2 33 106.6 41
34 Texas 6-7 215.8 98.5 65 117.4 20
35 Arizona State 10-3 215.7 104.7 49 110.9 33
36 Notre Dame 8-5 214.5 114.2 22 100.3 57
37 Memphis 10-3 213.8 100.0 61 113.8 27
38 Colorado State 10-3 213.8 112.0 27 101.8 51
39 Navy 8-5 213.6 111.5 28 102.1 49
40 Pittsburgh 6-7 213.6 115.4 19 98.2 67
41 Florida 7-5 213.1 95.8 81 117.3 21
42 Texas A&M 8-5 212.3 115.2 21 97.2 73
43 Arizona 10-4 212.1 105.4 46 106.6 40
44 N.C. State 8-5 211.7 112.5 25 99.1 62
45 Minnesota 8-5 211.1 105.4 45 105.7 44
46 Cincinnati 9-4 210.4 112.5 26 97.9 69
47 BYU 8-5 210.1 107.8 37 102.3 48
48 Air Force 10-3 210.1 99.8 62 110.3 34
49 Georgia Southern 9-3 210.1 108.5 36 101.6 53
50 Utah State 10-4 209.6 98.2 68 111.4 31
Rk Team Record S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
51 Western Kentucky 8-5 209.5 116.3 17 93.2 93
52 Western Michigan 8-5 208.9 106.9 41 102.0 50
53 East Carolina 8-5 208.0 109.1 34 99.0 65
54 South Carolina 7-6 207.7 113.3 23 94.5 89
55 Utah 9-4 206.5 98.4 66 108.1 38
56 Michigan 5-7 206.3 97.3 73 109.0 37
57 Virginia 5-7 206.0 96.1 78 109.9 35
58 Central Florida 9-4 203.5 97.2 75 106.3 42
59 Toledo 9-4 203.3 106.4 43 96.9 76
60 Rutgers 8-5 202.0 106.4 42 95.6 82
61 Central Michigan 7-6 201.6 102.2 53 99.3 60
62 UL-Lafayette 9-4 200.0 104.1 50 96.0 79
63 California 5-7 200.0 107.6 38 92.4 97
64 Maryland 7-6 199.4 98.5 64 100.9 55
65 San Diego State 7-6 198.8 96.0 79 102.7 47
66 Northern Illinois 9-3 198.3 102.0 54 96.4 78
67 Duke 9-4 198.2 100.4 59 97.8 70
68 Arkansas State 7-6 197.7 100.8 57 97.0 74
69 Kentucky 5-7 196.8 99.5 63 97.3 72
70 Oklahoma State 7-6 196.6 97.0 76 99.7 58
71 Washington State 3-9 195.0 100.8 56 94.2 90
72 Temple 6-6 194.9 89.8 96 105.1 45
73 Washington 8-6 194.8 94.5 84 100.3 56
74 Iowa 7-6 193.7 94.6 83 99.1 63
75 Texas Tech 4-8 193.3 103.4 51 89.9 104
Rk Team Record S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
76 UAB 6-6 193.0 97.3 74 95.8 80
77 Illinois 6-7 192.9 98.0 69 94.9 83
78 Appalachian State 7-5 192.8 98.3 67 94.5 87
79 Oregon State 5-7 192.1 97.5 71 94.7 84
80 Middle Tennessee 6-6 191.8 98.0 70 93.8 92
81 Indiana 4-8 190.8 94.4 85 96.4 77
82 Nevada 7-6 190.6 95.9 80 94.6 85
83 South Alabama 6-7 190.4 88.8 100 101.7 52
84 Rice 8-5 189.7 97.4 72 92.4 98
85 Northwestern 5-7 189.6 88.0 103 101.6 54
86 North Carolina 6-7 189.3 100.5 58 88.9 109
87 Houston 8-5 188.6 94.2 87 94.5 88
88 Colorado 2-10 188.4 96.3 77 92.1 99
89 Texas State 7-5 187.2 94.4 86 92.8 95
90 Syracuse 3-9 187.2 88.0 104 99.2 61
91 UTEP 7-6 187.2 93.3 89 93.9 91
92 Old Dominion 6-6 186.7 102.3 52 84.4 117
93 New Mexico 4-8 186.2 101.7 55 84.4 116
94 Purdue 3-9 185.2 89.6 97 95.6 81
95 Tulane 3-9 183.0 85.4 110 97.6 71
96 UL-Monroe 4-8 182.2 83.3 116 99.0 64
97 Florida Atlantic 3-9 181.4 92.3 92 89.1 107
98 Buffalo 5-6 181.1 92.4 91 88.7 110
99 Ohio 6-6 180.6 87.5 106 93.1 94
100 Akron 5-6 180.1 85.5 109 94.6 86
Rk Team Record S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk
101 Kansas 3-9 179.9 82.9 117 96.9 75
102 UTSA 4-8 179.3 80.7 122 98.6 66
103 Florida International 4-8 178.7 80.8 121 98.0 68
104 Bowling Green 8-5 178.6 89.3 98 89.4 106
105 San Jose State 3-9 178.3 87.7 105 90.5 103
106 Ball State 5-7 177.7 88.3 101 89.5 105
107 Miami (Ohio) 2-10 177.5 89.1 99 88.4 112
108 Wyoming 4-8 177.1 88.2 102 88.9 108
109 Massachusetts 3-9 176.6 91.8 94 84.8 115
110 Vanderbilt 3-9 175.8 83.7 115 92.0 100
111 Iowa State 2-10 174.9 92.1 93 82.8 119
112 Fresno State 6-8 174.6 83.9 113 90.6 102
113 Kent State 1-9 174.6 82.0 119 92.6 96
114 Wake Forest 2-9 174.4 74.9 126 99.4 59
115 Army 4-8 174.3 92.4 90 81.8 122
116 Idaho 1-10 173.5 89.9 95 83.6 118
117 Southern Miss 3-9 173.2 84.7 112 88.5 111
118 Connecticut 2-10 170.6 78.9 124 91.7 101
119 Troy 3-9 168.9 86.5 108 82.4 120
120 South Florida 4-8 167.4 79.1 123 88.3 113
121 Hawaii 4-9 166.7 78.7 125 88.1 114
122 New Mexico State 2-10 165.9 84.8 111 81.1 123
123 Tulsa 2-10 165.5 86.8 107 78.7 128
124 Georgia State 1-11 163.6 83.8 114 79.8 124
125 North Texas 4-8 163.2 81.3 120 81.9 121
126 UNLV 2-11 161.8 82.4 118 79.4 126
127 SMU 1-11 152.6 72.9 127 79.7 125
128 Eastern Michigan 2-10 150.1 70.8 128 79.4 127