Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2005 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/4/06

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
1 Texas 13-0 0.753 13-0 298.0 133.8 3 143.6 1 169.1 2 164.2 1 123.5 9 260.4 1
2 USC 12-1 0.682 13-0 283.0 142.3 1 137.2 2 177.4 1 140.6 4 120.2 11 190.8 2
3 Ohio State 10-2 0.682 12-0 279.2 133.7 4 118.9 6 148.8 3 145.4 2 140.4 2 150.7 3
4 Virginia Tech 11-2 0.721 11-2 267.3 132.2 5 117.3 14 138.2 5 135.1 6 129.3 4 131.6 8
5 Penn State 11-1 0.669 12-0 263.6 121.4 13 115.2 19 129.2 11 142.2 3 141.4 1 145.0 4
6 Alabama 10-2 0.671 11-1 263.3 125.8 10 109.7 30 123.7 19 137.6 5 125.5 7 129.9 11
7 Auburn 9-3 0.674 10-2 251.8 129.5 6 118.1 13 131.6 8 122.3 13 111.8 22 124.1 16
8 Georgia 10-3 0.643 12-1 247.9 126.2 9 118.6 10 135.1 6 121.8 14 110.8 24 134.0 5
9 Boston College 9-3 0.618 11-1 246.2 117.4 22 108.3 33 118.8 26 128.8 7 118.8 14 130.6 10
10 LSU 11-2 0.673 11-2 246.0 120.9 14 112.5 25 129.2 12 125.1 11 124.0 8 126.0 14
11 Louisville 9-3 0.646 10-2 244.0 134.3 2 133.6 3 130.9 9 109.8 29 98.9 62 117.3 24
12 Miami 9-3 0.655 11-1 242.0 116.0 24 116.7 15 110.9 41 125.9 9 127.0 6 120.0 21
13 West Virginia 11-1 0.642 11-1 240.0 121.8 11 116.4 17 129.0 13 118.2 20 111.3 23 127.0 13
14 Notre Dame 9-3 0.600 10-2 238.5 126.6 8 118.8 9 140.8 4 111.9 25 105.7 40 123.9 17
15 Michigan 7-5 0.585 10-2 237.3 111.5 33 101.4 53 122.0 22 125.8 10 119.2 13 132.8 6
16 Florida 9-3 0.603 9-3 235.5 116.9 23 107.3 39 127.1 15 118.5 19 112.8 20 124.8 15
17 Texas Tech 9-3 0.676 11-1 234.6 129.4 7 127.1 4 133.2 7 105.2 40 98.4 66 113.1 31
18 Iowa 7-5 0.599 10-2 231.6 118.1 17 111.5 27 120.4 24 113.4 24 105.1 41 117.5 23
19 Oregon 10-2 0.598 9-3 230.4 110.0 36 107.5 38 120.7 23 120.4 16 117.1 15 132.5 7
20 TCU 11-1 0.641 9-3 230.1 106.1 46 99.1 62 109.0 47 124.0 12 115.0 17 128.2 12
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
21 Clemson 8-4 0.600 7-5 229.0 118.9 16 116.0 18 120.2 25 110.0 26 106.5 38 112.1 33
22 Tennessee 5-6 0.500 8-3 227.8 101.7 65 95.3 76 109.4 45 126.0 8 122.1 10 131.4 9
23 Oklahoma 8-4 0.538 10-2 227.5 107.8 41 98.3 66 130.2 10 119.7 17 129.9 3 123.7 18
24 Fresno State 8-5 0.627 12-1 226.7 117.6 19 114.8 21 116.4 31 109.1 30 101.6 56 112.8 32
25 Florida State 8-5 0.568 9-4 225.2 105.7 48 101.9 50 112.0 39 119.5 18 119.9 12 121.8 19
26 Minnesota 7-5 0.552 10-2 224.7 121.7 12 118.4 11 125.8 17 103.0 50 96.7 71 110.0 34
27 South Florida 6-6 0.559 6-6 223.5 107.9 40 101.0 55 110.9 41 115.6 22 109.3 25 117.7 22
28 Kansas 7-5 0.505 8-4 221.1 100.1 69 91.7 89 109.6 44 121.0 15 127.4 5 116.0 26
29 Georgia Tech 7-5 0.480 9-3 220.5 105.6 49 98.9 63 116.6 29 115.0 23 113.9 19 120.8 20
30 Northwestern 7-5 0.488 7-5 218.5 115.9 25 115.1 20 122.6 20 102.6 54 96.8 70 113.6 30
31 Maryland 5-6 0.495 8-3 218.1 113.1 29 111.8 26 112.9 37 105.0 41 102.2 51 106.6 43
32 Northern Illinois 7-5 0.587 9-3 217.9 117.4 21 118.8 8 114.5 33 100.5 61 94.0 84 105.8 47
33 Arizona State 7-5 0.552 7-5 217.9 117.8 18 118.3 12 122.1 21 100.1 64 96.5 75 107.7 40
34 Michigan State 5-6 0.541 9-2 217.4 117.4 20 119.5 5 117.2 27 99.9 65 97.0 69 104.5 53
35 Toledo 9-3 0.622 10-2 216.5 111.6 32 108.7 32 107.8 48 104.9 43 107.1 33 96.4 77
36 N.C. State 7-5 0.539 8-4 216.4 100.3 68 95.3 77 106.4 52 116.1 21 117.1 16 116.4 25
37 Colorado 7-6 0.497 10-3 215.4 107.7 42 98.2 67 125.6 18 107.8 34 115.0 18 109.1 37
38 Texas A&M 5-6 0.507 4-7 215.2 120.9 15 118.9 7 128.9 14 94.3 78 89.3 105 104.1 54
39 Wisconsin 10-3 0.590 5-8 214.3 106.5 44 101.7 51 113.0 36 107.8 33 102.3 49 114.9 28
40 Tulsa 9-4 0.585 8-5 213.7 105.5 50 101.4 52 113.0 35 108.2 31 104.5 42 115.3 27
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
41 Utah 7-5 0.555 6-6 212.5 110.4 35 110.0 29 109.1 46 102.1 56 101.1 58 101.5 62
42 Nebraska 8-4 0.540 6-6 212.3 102.5 60 96.8 71 102.0 67 109.8 28 107.5 32 105.5 50
43 South Carolina 7-5 0.504 9-3 212.2 106.2 45 104.1 47 114.6 32 106.0 38 104.5 43 114.0 29
44 Iowa State 7-5 0.596 8-4 211.9 104.8 52 100.2 59 105.6 56 107.1 36 102.3 50 108.0 39
45 Missouri 7-5 0.513 8-4 211.0 113.9 27 107.8 36 126.0 16 97.1 72 96.7 73 102.7 56
46 BYU 6-6 0.530 7-5 210.9 114.9 26 114.0 22 116.4 30 96.0 74 90.9 98 101.6 61
47 Boise State 9-4 0.597 9-4 210.6 104.7 54 103.3 48 104.8 58 105.9 39 108.0 29 102.5 57
48 Southern Miss 7-5 0.566 5-7 210.1 105.4 51 100.5 57 102.5 65 104.6 44 100.0 61 101.4 63
49 Arkansas 4-7 0.511 9-2 210.0 103.8 57 104.7 46 106.3 53 106.2 37 107.0 36 109.0 38
50 Pittsburgh 5-6 0.522 6-5 209.8 102.7 59 97.3 68 107.2 50 107.1 35 106.7 37 106.6 42
51 Washington State 4-7 0.515 9-2 209.5 109.9 37 111.0 28 111.2 40 99.6 66 101.0 59 100.5 64
52 California 8-4 0.608 11-1 208.6 100.6 67 99.6 61 103.3 64 108.0 32 112.8 21 105.0 51
53 UCLA 10-2 0.534 7-5 208.4 113.3 28 116.5 16 114.3 34 95.0 76 95.6 77 97.8 74
54 Memphis 7-5 0.542 6-6 208.0 111.9 31 108.1 35 112.6 38 96.1 73 95.3 79 94.1 81
55 Purdue 5-6 0.516 7-4 207.2 102.3 62 100.7 56 105.1 57 104.9 42 104.0 44 107.0 41
56 UAB 5-6 0.534 8-3 206.6 112.7 30 113.6 24 106.7 51 93.9 82 93.8 87 89.7 94
57 Connecticut 5-6 0.560 5-6 205.5 95.5 77 89.3 96 99.5 74 110.0 27 108.2 27 109.3 36
58 Virginia 7-5 0.534 5-7 204.5 109.2 38 106.0 44 109.8 43 95.3 75 93.9 85 94.5 80
59 Rutgers 7-5 0.528 7-5 203.7 104.7 53 107.7 37 103.6 62 99.0 70 100.2 60 99.5 68
60 Houston 6-6 0.510 8-4 202.5 104.6 55 106.4 41 104.5 60 97.9 71 95.6 78 101.9 60
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
61 Hawaii 5-7 0.462 6-6 202.0 111.4 34 114.0 23 107.3 49 90.6 94 91.1 97 89.0 98
62 UTEP 8-4 0.550 7-5 201.8 102.3 61 106.4 40 96.5 81 99.4 67 98.8 64 98.4 70
63 Arizona 3-8 0.464 5-6 200.8 99.3 70 94.3 80 106.2 54 101.5 57 102.1 53 103.0 55
64 Wyoming 4-7 0.476 6-5 199.9 96.1 75 96.2 73 96.5 81 103.8 46 107.6 30 100.5 64
65 New Mexico 6-5 0.499 3-8 199.7 98.5 71 94.3 81 103.5 63 101.2 60 102.7 46 100.5 66
66 North Carolina 5-6 0.407 5-6 198.7 96.1 76 93.3 84 104.6 59 102.6 53 101.9 54 109.5 35
67 Washington 2-9 0.413 7-4 198.4 94.7 81 96.7 72 98.5 78 103.7 47 107.5 31 106.4 45
68 Vanderbilt 5-6 0.482 3-8 197.8 109.0 39 105.9 45 117.1 28 88.8 97 85.0 113 96.6 76
69 Kansas State 5-6 0.487 3-8 197.5 95.4 78 92.5 86 100.0 72 102.1 55 101.6 55 104.5 52
70 Air Force 4-7 0.486 7-4 197.2 106.1 47 109.1 31 102.0 67 91.1 93 89.7 104 91.6 88
71 San Diego State 5-7 0.499 6-6 196.8 94.2 82 94.8 79 97.1 80 102.6 52 103.6 45 105.6 48
72 Central Michigan 6-5 0.500 6-5 196.5 95.1 80 96.9 70 94.5 85 101.4 58 102.1 52 102.0 59
73 Oregon State 5-6 0.445 5-6 196.3 93.3 84 93.4 83 91.1 93 103.1 49 107.0 35 96.9 75
74 Wake Forest 4-7 0.460 3-8 196.2 101.9 64 100.2 58 106.0 55 94.4 77 93.1 90 97.9 72
75 Louisiana Tech 7-4 0.529 5-6 195.9 96.8 74 97.3 69 90.3 94 99.0 69 98.9 63 93.1 83
76 Miami (Ohio) 7-4 0.590 4-7 195.6 101.9 63 101.3 54 100.5 71 93.7 83 93.2 89 92.4 84
77 Bowling Green 6-5 0.550 5-6 195.4 104.3 56 106.3 42 99.9 73 91.1 92 90.1 102 90.1 93
78 Navy 8-4 0.567 7-5 194.9 106.8 43 108.3 34 102.5 65 88.1 101 85.8 108 88.2 101
79 Stanford 5-6 0.444 4-7 194.4 90.5 94 86.8 99 98.6 77 103.9 45 106.5 39 106.4 45
80 Colorado State 6-6 0.465 4-8 193.6 100.7 66 106.1 43 97.4 79 92.8 89 92.4 91 95.3 78
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
81 Akron 7-6 0.490 6-7 193.5 90.7 93 89.8 94 91.2 91 102.8 51 107.1 34 98.0 71
82 Baylor 5-6 0.446 4-7 193.4 92.1 86 87.7 98 100.6 70 101.2 59 108.1 28 98.7 69
83 East Carolina 5-6 0.457 4-7 191.2 97.3 73 98.7 65 96.1 83 93.9 81 94.1 83 94.0 82
84 SMU 5-6 0.450 4-7 190.9 87.3 100 86.0 103 88.5 99 103.6 48 101.4 57 105.5 49
85 Nevada 9-3 0.517 5-7 190.7 97.5 72 99.8 60 93.0 88 93.3 86 96.7 72 87.8 102
86 Central Florida 8-5 0.500 3-10 187.7 95.4 79 98.9 64 88.6 98 92.3 90 89.0 106 92.4 84
87 UL-Lafayette 6-5 0.485 2-9 186.5 103.3 58 102.4 49 103.7 61 83.2 112 84.3 115 81.9 112
88 Middle Tennessee 4-7 0.505 2-9 186.4 92.1 87 90.1 93 92.1 89 94.2 79 94.7 81 91.7 86
89 Army 4-7 0.427 4-7 185.3 92.1 88 90.3 91 94.7 84 93.2 87 95.7 76 91.6 87
90 Oklahoma State 4-7 0.392 5-6 185.0 90.9 92 91.2 90 99.4 75 94.1 80 94.9 80 102.4 58
91 Mississippi State 3-8 0.370 2-9 183.6 89.9 97 86.4 102 99.1 76 93.6 85 97.8 68 95.3 78
92 Eastern Michigan 4-7 0.448 2-9 182.5 93.4 83 93.2 85 89.8 95 89.2 95 90.1 100 84.5 107
93 Marshall 4-7 0.418 3-8 180.6 87.6 99 90.2 92 86.5 101 93.0 88 98.3 67 89.2 95
94 Syracuse 1-10 0.339 2-9 179.9 79.5 110 71.2 118 94.3 87 100.4 62 102.7 47 106.5 44
95 Indiana 4-7 0.407 1-10 179.8 86.1 103 86.6 100 92.0 90 93.7 84 96.7 74 97.9 72
96 Ole Miss 3-8 0.377 2-9 178.9 79.9 109 79.7 112 83.7 105 99.1 68 102.4 48 100.4 67
97 Western Michigan 7-4 0.509 1-10 178.9 92.3 85 92.1 88 87.5 100 86.6 107 85.2 112 83.3 109
98 Arkansas State 6-6 0.492 5-7 178.2 90.5 95 96.1 74 79.8 110 87.7 102 89.9 103 80.7 115
99 Illinois 2-9 0.301 2-9 175.4 89.9 96 94.1 82 91.2 91 85.4 109 88.5 107 87.6 103
100 Ball State 4-7 0.358 2-9 175.1 86.3 101 86.6 101 89.2 97 88.8 98 90.3 99 90.4 91
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
101 Kentucky 3-8 0.389 1-10 174.8 88.5 98 89.5 95 89.4 96 86.3 108 85.5 109 88.8 99
102 Florida International 5-6 0.443 3-8 174.3 91.3 91 95.9 75 82.1 106 83.0 113 84.3 116 77.6 118
103 Ohio 4-7 0.363 0-11 173.7 86.1 102 92.4 87 86.4 102 87.6 103 90.1 101 91.6 88
104 Rice 1-10 0.349 1-10 173.5 91.5 89 89.0 97 101.7 69 82.0 114 82.1 117 88.7 100
105 UL-Monroe 5-6 0.413 3-8 173.2 91.4 90 95.0 78 85.7 104 81.8 115 85.3 110 76.5 119
106 Troy 4-7 0.407 1-10 172.9 72.8 116 75.2 114 69.5 118 100.2 63 109.1 26 90.1 92
107 Cincinnati 4-7 0.357 3-8 172.5 85.7 104 85.9 105 94.4 86 86.8 105 91.6 96 91.1 90
108 Idaho 2-9 0.367 0-11 169.2 81.1 106 81.8 109 78.0 112 88.1 100 91.6 95 82.1 111
109 UNLV 2-9 0.352 2-9 168.8 80.5 107 83.8 106 80.7 108 88.3 99 94.2 82 86.2 105
110 San Jose State 3-8 0.410 2-9 168.1 81.2 105 85.9 104 74.3 114 86.9 104 93.6 88 77.8 116
111 Utah State 3-8 0.366 1-10 166.9 80.2 108 83.1 107 80.1 109 86.6 106 92.1 93 84.1 108
112 Tulane 2-9 0.402 2-9 166.5 77.7 112 77.2 113 81.5 107 88.8 96 93.8 86 87.5 104
113 Florida Atlantic 2-9 0.303 2-9 163.6 79.2 111 83.0 108 79.7 111 84.4 110 91.7 94 81.8 113
114 Kent State 1-10 0.352 0-11 162.2 70.1 118 70.4 119 72.2 117 92.1 91 98.5 65 89.1 96
115 North Texas 2-9 0.312 1-10 157.0 76.1 113 80.4 111 76.3 113 81.0 117 84.9 114 81.8 114
116 Duke 1-10 0.302 0-11 156.9 75.5 114 72.1 117 86.1 103 81.5 116 81.7 119 89.0 97
117 Buffalo 1-10 0.251 0-11 154.9 70.8 117 73.8 115 73.9 115 84.1 111 92.3 92 83.2 110
118 New Mexico State 0-12 0.298 0-12 152.0 74.3 115 80.5 110 72.2 116 77.7 119 81.9 118 77.6 117
119 Temple 0-11 0.177 1-10 148.0 67.5 119 73.5 116 69.2 119 80.5 118 85.3 111 85.1 106