Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2005 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/4/06

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): A simple schedule measure based on average S&P+ ratings and normal distributions.
  • Weighted S&P+ rating: This is an attempt to measure how a team was playing at the end of a given season, with extra weight given to the most recent games. It is limited in power by small sample sizes, but it is useful in determining which teams finished strong and which derived most of their good (or bad) final ratings from early-season play.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
USC 12-1 11.9 (-0.1) 99.6% +29.7 1 50.1 1 20.4 27 1.69 5 +23.4 1
Texas 13-0 12.1 (-0.9) 99.5% +29.3 2 44.0 2 14.7 5 0.85 20 +21.4 2
Ohio State 10-2 10.0 (0.0) 98.8% +25.4 3 37.7 6 12.4 2 1.49 7 +15.2 6
Penn State 11-1 10.2 (-0.8) 96.4% +20.1 4 35.0 12 14.8 7 0.61 37 +9.9 20
Virginia Tech 11-2 10.2 (-0.8) 96.1% +19.8 5 32.1 26 12.3 1 0.64 36 +14.0 8
Michigan 7-5 7.6 (0.6) 94.4% +17.8 6 34.2 16 16.4 12 1.87 3 +10.0 19
Georgia 10-3 10.6 (0.6) 94.0% +17.4 7 34.6 15 17.1 17 0.78 26 +19.3 3
Notre Dame 9-3 8.6 (-0.4) 93.1% +16.6 8 40.1 3 23.5 38 1.16 14 +16.8 4
LSU 11-2 9.1 (-1.9) 90.7% +14.8 9 31.1 29 16.3 10 0.38 47 +13.1 11
Auburn 9-3 9.4 (0.4) 90.4% +14.6 10 32.5 23 17.9 18 -0.25 78 +11.4 14
Boston College 9-3 9.6 (0.6) 89.9% +14.3 11 29.7 37 15.4 9 0.42 45 +12.5 12
West Virginia 11-1 8.5 (-2.5) 89.7% +14.2 12 32.7 22 18.5 22 0.48 42 +15.7 5
Miami 9-3 9.5 (0.5) 89.7% +14.2 13 28.3 48 14.2 4 -0.22 73 +12.5 13
Oklahoma 8-4 7.6 (-0.4) 89.5% +14.1 14 30.5 32 16.4 11 1.64 6 +4.4 46
Alabama 10-2 8.6 (-1.4) 89.4% +14.0 15 27.2 61 13.2 3 0.82 23 +3.7 49
Minnesota 7-5 7.7 (0.7) 88.9% +13.7 16 39.9 4 26.2 56 1.38 12 +2.3 56
Louisville 9-3 9.7 (0.7) 87.1% +12.7 17 37.4 7 24.8 44 -0.60 88 +9.0 25
Florida 9-3 7.9 (-1.1) 84.5% +11.4 18 29.6 39 18.2 20 0.84 21 +10.5 16
Oregon 10-2 7.9 (-2.1) 83.6% +11.0 19 32.2 25 21.3 28 0.73 30 +6.9 34
Fresno State 8-5 9.7 (1.7) 82.1% +10.3 20 35.4 11 25.1 47 -0.28 80 +15.0 7
Colorado 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 81.4% +10.0 21 27.0 63 17.0 15 1.30 13 +5.2 38
Tennessee 5-6 6.4 (1.4) 81.1% +9.9 22 24.8 77 14.9 8 1.11 17 +4.9 41
Iowa 7-5 8.4 (1.4) 78.6% +8.9 23 32.9 21 24.0 41 -0.15 70 +13.3 10
TCU 11-1 8.3 (-2.7) 78.3% +8.8 24 27.7 54 19.0 23 -0.25 77 +9.5 23
N.C. State 7-5 7.2 (0.2) 77.8% +8.6 25 23.4 86 14.8 6 0.71 31 +6.2 37
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Georgia Tech 7-5 6.5 (-0.5) 77.6% +8.5 26 25.5 72 17.0 16 1.43 8 +10.1 18
South Florida 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 77.5% +8.5 27 25.1 73 16.6 13 0.76 28 -3.0 83
Florida State 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 76.7% +8.2 28 24.9 75 16.7 14 0.58 38 +4.8 42
Texas Tech 9-3 8.6 (-0.4) 76.3% +8.0 29 33.5 19 25.5 52 -0.81 92 +3.7 50
Clemson 8-4 7.8 (-0.2) 75.7% +7.8 30 28.2 51 20.4 26 -0.24 75 +8.1 27
Northwestern 7-5 5.8 (-1.2) 75.5% +7.7 31 37.4 8 29.7 82 1.41 9 -0.7 69
Purdue 5-6 6.1 (1.1) 75.2% +7.6 32 34.0 18 26.3 58 0.80 25 +0.5 68
Arkansas 4-7 6.1 (2.1) 74.8% +7.5 33 28.8 44 21.3 29 0.64 35 +9.6 22
Tulsa 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 74.1% +7.3 34 30.2 33 22.9 37 -0.34 81 +13.4 9
Arizona State 7-5 6.8 (-0.2) 72.7% +6.8 35 37.4 9 30.6 88 0.27 50 -4.2 86
Maryland 5-6 6.0 (1.0) 72.4% +6.7 36 29.1 41 22.4 36 0.77 27 -0.9 71
Wisconsin 10-3 8.2 (-1.8) 71.8% +6.5 37 31.7 27 25.2 48 0.04 60 +7.0 32
South Carolina 7-5 6.4 (-0.6) 71.7% +6.4 38 27.9 53 21.4 30 0.93 19 +11.1 15
Nebraska 8-4 7.5 (-0.5) 71.3% +6.3 39 24.3 80 18.0 19 0.20 54 +0.7 65
Southern Miss 7-5 7.8 (0.8) 69.9% +5.9 40 29.6 38 23.7 39 -0.02 63 +2.2 57
Michigan State 5-6 5.2 (0.2) 69.7% +5.8 41 36.7 10 30.9 92 0.66 34 -8.2 95
Iowa State 7-5 8.3 (1.3) 68.8% +5.5 42 25.9 70 20.4 25 -0.27 79 +6.4 35
BYU 6-6 6.6 (0.6) 67.7% +5.2 43 34.8 13 29.7 81 0.33 49 +2.6 54
UCLA 10-2 7.9 (-2.1) 67.0% +4.9 44 37.8 5 32.9 102 0.19 55 -1.4 75
Kansas 7-5 6.6 (-0.4) 66.8% +4.9 45 23.3 87 18.4 21 0.70 32 +4.6 44
Washington State 4-7 6.0 (2.0) 65.1% +4.3 46 34.6 14 30.2 86 0.14 58 +1.2 60
Texas A&M 5-6 5.5 (0.5) 64.3% +4.1 47 33.4 20 29.3 80 0.70 33 +0.8 63
Missouri 7-5 6.2 (-0.8) 62.6% +3.6 48 29.0 42 25.4 51 0.58 39 -6.0 90
Pittsburgh 5-6 6.1 (1.1) 59.9% +2.8 49 22.2 90 19.4 24 -0.01 62 +2.7 53
Northern Illinois 7-5 7.3 (0.3) 59.0% +2.5 50 30.8 31 28.3 73 -1.06 98 +7.6 29
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Utah 7-5 7.5 (0.5) 58.6% +2.4 51 31.1 30 28.6 75 -0.83 94 +10.1 17
Arizona 3-8 4.6 (1.6) 58.3% +2.4 52 28.9 43 26.5 59 0.41 46 +1.7 59
Memphis 7-5 6.3 (-0.7) 57.9% +2.2 53 29.9 36 27.6 70 -0.06 66 +3.8 48
Boise State 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 57.5% +2.1 54 29.1 40 27.0 63 -0.72 91 +9.9 21
California 8-4 8.0 (0.0) 56.9% +1.9 55 28.0 52 26.1 55 -1.40 108 +6.9 33
Washington 2-9 3.8 (1.8) 56.5% +1.8 56 28.6 47 26.8 61 1.13 16 -1.5 76
Stanford 5-6 4.8 (-0.2) 56.4% +1.8 57 27.4 56 25.6 53 1.40 10 -2.4 80
North Carolina 5-6 3.2 (-1.8) 56.1% +1.7 58 23.7 82 22.0 34 1.89 2 -9.7 101
Central Michigan 6-5 6.3 (0.3) 55.7% +1.6 59 26.5 66 24.9 45 -0.02 64 +7.4 30
Toledo 9-3 8.7 (-0.3) 55.0% +1.4 60 28.3 49 26.9 62 -1.89 114 +7.2 31
Baylor 5-6 5.5 (0.5) 53.1% +0.9 61 22.4 89 21.5 33 0.36 48 -4.0 85
Colorado State 6-6 5.1 (-0.9) 52.8% +0.8 62 31.6 28 30.8 90 0.53 41 -8.5 96
Virginia 7-5 5.8 (-1.2) 52.2% +0.6 63 25.9 69 25.3 50 -0.36 82 -4.9 88
Rutgers 7-5 8.4 (1.4) 51.9% +0.5 64 27.3 60 26.7 60 -1.15 100 +0.9 62
Wake Forest 4-7 3.4 (-0.6) 49.9% 0.0 65 26.2 68 26.3 57 0.84 22 -7.6 94
Oregon State 5-6 4.8 (-0.2) 49.3% -0.2 66 27.3 58 27.5 69 0.73 29 -9.2 99
San Diego State 5-7 5.1 (0.1) 48.3% -0.5 67 27.7 55 28.2 72 0.47 43 -2.8 82
UAB 5-6 7.2 (2.2) 47.9% -0.6 68 30.0 35 30.6 87 -1.25 103 +4.9 39
Wyoming 4-7 5.3 (1.3) 46.7% -0.9 69 24.9 74 25.8 54 -0.18 72 -7.4 93
Army 4-7 3.9 (-0.1) 46.6% -1.0 70 24.0 81 25.0 46 0.57 40 +9.5 24
Hawaii 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 45.4% -1.3 71 34.0 17 35.3 116 -0.22 74 -0.9 70
New Mexico 6-5 5.5 (-0.5) 44.7% -1.5 72 28.3 50 29.8 83 -0.57 87 +0.6 66
Air Force 4-7 4.9 (0.9) 42.8% -2.0 73 32.3 24 34.3 110 -0.05 65 +4.5 45
Houston 6-6 7.2 (1.2) 42.0% -2.3 74 26.8 65 29.0 78 -1.13 99 -2.4 81
Kansas State 5-6 4.2 (-0.8) 41.8% -2.3 75 22.4 88 24.7 43 0.16 57 -9.0 97
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Akron 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 41.7% -2.3 76 21.9 94 24.3 42 -0.82 93 +7.9 28
Central Florida 8-5 5.6 (-2.4) 39.7% -2.9 77 28.7 45 31.7 97 -0.09 68 -2.3 79
UTEP 8-4 6.8 (-1.2) 38.9% -3.2 78 25.6 71 28.8 77 -1.64 110 -4.5 87
East Carolina 5-6 5.6 (0.6) 37.7% -3.5 79 27.3 57 30.9 91 -0.61 89 +0.8 64
Miami (Ohio) 7-4 6.6 (-0.4) 37.6% -3.5 80 23.7 83 27.3 67 -1.71 111 -2.2 77
Oklahoma State 4-7 3.9 (-0.1) 37.0% -3.7 81 23.5 84 27.2 65 0.46 44 -1.0 74
Louisiana Tech 7-4 6.9 (-0.1) 36.7% -3.8 82 24.8 76 28.6 76 -1.38 106 +6.2 36
Vanderbilt 5-6 4.0 (-1.0) 34.7% -4.4 83 26.8 64 31.3 95 0.00 61 -7.2 92
Bowling Green 6-5 6.1 (0.1) 34.1% -4.6 84 27.2 62 31.7 98 -1.73 112 +4.7 43
Nevada 9-3 7.2 (-1.8) 34.0% -4.6 85 28.6 46 33.3 107 -1.41 109 +2.5 55
Connecticut 5-6 4.7 (-0.3) 34.0% -4.6 86 16.9 109 21.5 31 -1.24 101 -2.3 78
SMU 5-6 4.4 (-0.6) 33.2% -4.9 87 20.4 98 25.2 49 -0.06 67 +8.7 26
Ball State 4-7 2.8 (-1.2) 32.8% -5.0 88 23.4 85 28.4 74 1.38 11 +3.7 51
Indiana 4-7 3.8 (-0.2) 32.0% -5.3 89 24.6 78 29.9 84 0.24 51 -12.5 110
Navy 8-4 7.7 (-0.3) 30.3% -5.8 90 30.2 34 36.0 117 -2.32 119 +4.3 47
Cincinnati 4-7 3.4 (-0.6) 30.3% -5.8 91 22.0 93 27.8 71 0.97 18 -11.9 108
Marshall 4-7 4.3 (0.3) 29.7% -6.0 92 21.3 97 27.3 68 -0.24 76 -10.4 103
Middle Tennessee 4-7 5.0 (1.0) 26.1% -7.2 93 20.0 99 27.2 66 -1.24 102 +2.0 58
Ole Miss 3-8 3.4 (0.4) 25.5% -7.4 94 14.8 115 22.1 35 -0.12 69 -10.5 104
Illinois 2-9 1.4 (-0.6) 25.3% -7.5 95 26.4 67 33.8 109 1.71 4 -11.3 106
Syracuse 1-10 1.5 (0.5) 23.8% -8.0 96 13.5 116 21.5 32 0.80 24 -15.9 114
Mississippi State 3-8 3.5 (0.5) 23.6% -8.1 97 15.7 112 23.8 40 0.10 59 -14.3 112
Rice 1-10 1.6 (0.6) 21.2% -9.0 98 27.3 59 36.3 118 1.14 15 -9.0 98
Kentucky 3-8 2.6 (-0.4) 20.1% -9.4 99 21.5 95 31.0 93 0.23 53 -14.7 113
UL-Lafayette 6-5 5.2 (-0.8) 18.9% -9.9 100 24.5 79 34.4 111 -1.40 107 +4.9 40
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Eastern Michigan 4-7 5.1 (1.1) 18.7% -10.0 101 21.4 96 31.4 96 -0.95 96 +0.5 67
Ohio 4-7 3.3 (-0.7) 18.0% -10.3 102 19.0 101 29.3 79 -0.17 71 -1.0 72
UL-Monroe 5-6 5.1 (0.1) 15.9% -11.2 103 22.0 92 33.3 108 -1.35 105 -1.0 73
Arkansas State 6-6 6.0 (0.0) 13.6% -12.4 104 18.8 103 31.1 94 -2.30 118 -6.5 91
Western Michigan 7-4 6.3 (-0.7) 12.4% -13.0 105 22.1 91 35.1 115 -2.22 117 +3.3 52
UNLV 2-9 2.6 (0.6) 11.8% -13.3 106 19.9 100 33.3 106 -0.41 83 -9.7 102
Temple 0-11 0.9 (0.9) 9.5% -14.7 107 18.3 105 32.9 104 1.95 1 -11.9 109
Tulane 2-9 2.4 (0.4) 9.2% -14.9 108 17.0 107 32.0 99 -0.89 95 -14.1 111
Utah State 3-8 1.9 (-1.1) 8.4% -15.4 109 17.8 106 33.2 105 -0.49 86 -11.5 107
Florida International 5-6 4.6 (-0.4) 8.0% -15.8 110 18.8 102 34.6 112 -2.16 116 +0.9 61
San Jose State 3-8 4.4 (1.4) 7.9% -15.8 111 18.8 104 34.6 113 -1.95 115 -5.8 89
Troy 4-7 4.0 (0.0) 7.2% -16.4 112 10.7 118 27.1 64 -1.75 113 -3.0 84
Duke 1-10 1.6 (0.6) 7.2% -16.4 113 16.1 111 32.5 101 0.23 52 -19.4 118
Florida Atlantic 2-9 2.4 (0.4) 6.9% -16.6 114 15.4 114 32.0 100 -0.70 90 -17.4 117
North Texas 2-9 1.8 (-0.2) 6.2% -17.3 115 15.6 113 32.9 103 -0.48 85 -10.6 105
Idaho 2-9 2.6 (0.6) 5.4% -18.1 116 16.9 108 35.0 114 -1.03 97 -9.3 100
Kent State 1-10 2.0 (1.0) 4.2% -19.4 117 11.3 117 30.6 89 -1.30 104 -16.7 115
New Mexico State 0-12 0.6 (0.6) 3.8% -20.0 118 16.4 110 36.4 119 0.18 56 -19.5 119
Buffalo 1-10 1.1 (0.1) 2.7% -21.7 119 8.4 119 30.1 85 -0.43 84 -17.2 116