Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2006 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/8/07

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): A simple schedule measure based on average S&P+ ratings and normal distributions.
  • Weighted S&P+ rating: This is an attempt to measure how a team was playing at the end of a given season, with extra weight given to the most recent games. It is limited in power by small sample sizes, but it is useful in determining which teams finished strong and which derived most of their good (or bad) final ratings from early-season play.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Florida 13-1 12.1 (-0.9) 97.7% +22.1 1 33.7 11 11.7 3 1.38 9 +11.4 18
Michigan 11-2 11.0 (0.0) 97.5% +21.6 2 33.3 14 11.7 2 1.50 7 +11.6 16
USC 11-2 11.7 (0.7) 97.5% +21.6 3 34.2 9 12.6 4 1.33 10 +18.8 2
Ohio State 12-1 11.4 (-0.6) 97.3% +21.3 4 35.9 5 14.5 8 0.76 24 +15.6 7
LSU 11-2 10.9 (-0.1) 96.7% +20.3 5 33.6 12 13.4 6 0.23 57 +16.9 3
Louisville 12-1 11.4 (-0.6) 96.0% +19.4 6 36.9 3 17.5 21 0.48 38 +11.7 14
Oklahoma 11-3 10.8 (-0.2) 95.0% +18.2 7 31.9 19 13.7 7 1.32 11 +13.8 11
West Virginia 11-2 11.0 (0.0) 93.7% +16.9 8 38.8 2 21.8 45 0.22 59 +14.1 9
BYU 11-2 11.4 (0.4) 93.0% +16.3 9 35.8 6 19.5 32 -0.62 86 +16.7 4
Tennessee 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 92.8% +16.1 10 35.4 7 19.2 30 1.74 3 +8.9 22
South Carolina 7-5 7.7 (0.7) 92.5% +15.9 11 36.0 4 20.1 35 1.67 5 +15.9 6
Arkansas 10-4 10.1 (0.1) 91.6% +15.2 12 31.4 24 16.2 16 0.61 31 +20.6 1
Boise State 13-0 11.0 (-2.0) 91.3% +15.0 13 33.5 13 18.5 27 -0.73 87 +12.9 12
Rutgers 11-2 10.0 (-1.0) 90.5% +14.5 14 27.6 32 13.1 5 0.04 66 +7.4 29
Virginia Tech 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 89.3% +13.7 15 23.5 65 9.7 1 0.12 63 +16.4 5
Texas 10-3 8.9 (-1.1) 87.7% +12.8 16 32.7 17 20.0 34 0.02 67 +2.6 55
Cincinnati 8-5 6.9 (-1.1) 86.3% +12.1 17 27.1 38 15.0 10 1.60 6 +6.4 31
California 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 86.2% +12.0 18 33.8 10 21.8 44 0.44 40 +4.1 45
Nebraska 9-5 9.4 (0.4) 85.7% +11.8 19 31.6 23 19.8 33 0.44 39 +5.6 36
Notre Dame 10-3 8.9 (-1.1) 85.3% +11.6 20 34.8 8 23.2 59 0.68 28 +10.4 19
Georgia Tech 9-5 10.4 (1.4) 84.6% +11.3 21 26.3 41 15.1 11 0.29 54 +4.5 43
Auburn 11-2 8.2 (-2.8) 83.0% +10.5 22 28.5 27 18.0 25 0.59 33 +3.1 50
Oklahoma State 7-6 8.9 (1.9) 82.9% +10.5 23 33.0 16 22.5 53 0.25 55 +4.1 44
Boston College 10-3 8.9 (-1.1) 82.0% +10.1 24 25.5 43 15.3 14 0.33 48 +5.4 37
TCU 11-2 10.6 (-0.4) 81.8% +10.0 25 25.1 48 15.1 12 -1.14 100 +14.0 10
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Texas Tech 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 81.4% +9.8 26 33.1 15 23.3 61 0.50 37 +4.8 40
Hawaii 11-3 11.7 (0.7) 80.5% +9.5 27 40.6 1 31.1 110 -1.27 106 +11.4 17
Clemson 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 80.0% +9.3 28 27.7 30 18.5 26 -0.50 83 +6.3 32
Pittsburgh 6-6 7.0 (1.0) 79.9% +9.3 29 31.7 22 22.5 52 0.31 51 -2.9 81
Penn State 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 77.7% +8.4 30 23.0 71 14.6 9 0.33 49 +2.4 57
Alabama 6-7 6.5 (0.5) 77.0% +8.2 31 26.7 39 18.5 28 1.24 12 -0.4 70
Oregon 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 76.3% +7.9 32 29.4 26 21.5 42 0.98 18 +1.2 63
Florida State 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 76.2% +7.9 33 24.1 58 16.3 17 0.87 22 +7.5 28
Georgia 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 75.7% +7.7 34 24.3 57 16.6 19 0.12 62 +14.3 8
Texas A&M 9-4 8.0 (-1.0) 75.1% +7.5 35 31.8 21 24.3 71 0.40 43 +0.3 67
Oregon State 10-4 7.8 (-2.2) 74.6% +7.3 36 27.7 31 20.4 36 0.43 41 +10.2 20
South Florida 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 74.4% +7.3 37 24.0 60 16.7 20 -0.08 70 +3.4 49
Minnesota 6-7 6.6 (0.6) 74.1% +7.2 38 31.9 20 24.7 72 0.61 32 +1.1 64
UCLA 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 72.9% +6.7 39 24.3 55 17.5 22 0.72 26 +7.8 26
Missouri 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 71.8% +6.4 40 27.4 34 21.1 38 -0.49 81 +1.8 60
Iowa 6-7 7.6 (1.6) 71.1% +6.2 41 28.0 28 21.9 46 0.39 44 +3.4 48
Wisconsin 12-1 10.3 (-1.7) 70.6% +6.0 42 23.9 61 17.9 24 -1.41 108 +9.4 21
Miami 7-6 7.8 (0.8) 69.9% +5.8 43 22.3 76 16.5 18 0.12 64 +6.3 33
Arizona State 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 69.6% +5.7 44 27.9 29 22.2 50 0.32 50 +6.7 30
Kentucky 8-5 5.7 (-2.3) 67.7% +5.1 45 32.5 18 27.4 87 1.43 8 +2.4 56
Wake Forest 11-3 9.2 (-1.8) 67.4% +5.0 46 23.8 62 18.8 29 -0.26 74 +12.2 13
Utah 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 65.5% +4.4 47 27.2 37 22.8 56 -0.42 79 +7.6 27
Maryland 9-4 6.7 (-2.3) 64.5% +4.1 48 26.7 40 22.5 54 0.51 36 +3.9 46
Houston 10-4 10.3 (0.3) 64.5% +4.1 49 31.4 25 27.3 84 -0.76 89 +11.6 15
Kansas State 7-6 5.4 (-1.6) 64.4% +4.1 50 21.7 80 17.7 23 1.17 14 -5.9 91
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Nevada 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 63.3% +3.8 51 25.0 49 21.2 39 -0.91 93 +6.2 34
Tulsa 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 62.4% +3.5 52 27.3 35 23.8 63 -0.79 90 +2.3 59
Washington 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 60.6% +3.0 53 24.7 53 21.8 43 0.99 17 -9.9 104
Arizona 6-6 4.9 (-1.1) 60.2% +2.9 54 19.0 94 16.1 15 1.05 16 +4.5 42
Syracuse 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 60.2% +2.8 55 24.8 52 21.9 48 2.03 1 -10.4 106
Washington State 6-6 6.1 (0.1) 59.0% +2.5 56 25.5 42 23.0 57 0.07 65 -2.4 77
Southern Miss 9-5 8.0 (-1.0) 58.9% +2.5 57 23.4 66 20.9 37 -0.39 78 +8.6 23
Virginia 5-7 6.8 (1.8) 57.9% +2.2 58 17.4 99 15.2 13 0.40 42 +0.2 68
Kansas 6-6 6.6 (0.6) 57.6% +2.1 59 25.2 47 23.0 58 -0.34 76 -3.2 83
N.C. State 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 53.5% +1.0 60 22.2 78 21.3 40 0.74 25 -8.4 100
Connecticut 4-8 4.9 (0.9) 52.7% +0.8 61 23.2 68 22.4 51 0.65 29 -6.3 93
Wyoming 6-6 6.5 (0.5) 51.8% +0.5 62 19.7 87 19.2 31 -0.22 73 +2.3 58
Baylor 4-8 4.9 (0.9) 49.9% 0.0 63 25.2 45 25.2 74 0.79 23 -7.0 95
Purdue 8-6 7.3 (-0.7) 47.0% -0.8 64 27.6 33 28.4 97 -0.31 75 -1.4 74
East Carolina 7-6 5.5 (-1.5) 46.9% -0.8 65 23.1 70 24.0 67 0.29 53 +1.6 61
Northwestern 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 45.9% -1.1 66 22.6 75 23.8 62 0.91 21 -0.6 71
New Mexico 6-7 4.7 (-1.3) 44.1% -1.6 67 22.2 77 23.9 65 0.39 45 +5.2 39
Air Force 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 44.0% -1.7 68 27.3 36 28.9 99 0.70 27 -4.7 87
Central Michigan 10-4 8.6 (-1.4) 42.2% -2.2 69 25.3 44 27.5 88 -1.25 104 +5.9 35
Fresno State 4-8 4.6 (0.6) 42.2% -2.2 70 24.8 51 27.0 82 0.36 47 -2.7 79
Vanderbilt 4-8 5.9 (1.9) 40.6% -2.6 71 23.4 67 26.0 78 -0.60 85 -1.0 72
Michigan State 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 39.5% -2.9 72 24.5 54 27.4 86 0.21 60 -13.3 112
Colorado 2-10 3.6 (1.6) 37.6% -3.5 73 19.1 92 22.6 55 0.24 56 -7.2 98
North Carolina 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 37.3% -3.6 74 23.6 63 27.2 83 1.16 15 -6.9 94
Ohio 9-5 8.2 (-0.8) 35.7% -4.1 75 17.4 102 21.4 41 -1.02 95 -1.1 73
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Iowa State 4-8 3.2 (-0.8) 34.6% -4.4 76 25.2 46 29.6 105 0.92 20 -14.8 115
Ole Miss 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 34.4% -4.4 77 19.7 88 24.2 69 0.57 34 +0.9 66
Illinois 2-10 4.3 (2.3) 34.2% -4.5 78 19.7 89 24.2 70 0.16 61 +3.7 47
Western Michigan 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 34.0% -4.5 79 17.3 103 21.9 47 -1.53 110 +5.4 38
Middle Tennessee 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 33.2% -4.8 80 19.1 93 23.9 66 -0.94 94 +8.4 25
Mississippi State 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 33.2% -4.8 81 17.4 101 22.2 49 0.63 30 +2.8 53
Indiana 5-7 3.2 (-1.8) 32.1% -5.1 82 23.1 69 28.3 95 1.19 13 -11.2 110
UAB 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 31.4% -5.4 83 21.5 81 26.9 81 -0.07 69 -10.9 108
Rice 7-6 5.3 (-1.7) 30.5% -5.6 84 25.0 50 30.6 109 0.02 68 +1.6 62
Navy 9-4 8.5 (-0.5) 30.3% -5.7 85 23.5 64 29.2 101 -1.95 116 -3.0 82
Ball State 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 28.7% -6.2 86 24.3 56 30.5 108 -1.26 105 +1.0 65
Central Florida 4-8 5.4 (1.4) 27.7% -6.5 87 23.0 72 29.5 104 -0.49 80 -4.8 88
San Jose State 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 27.6% -6.6 88 22.1 79 28.7 98 -2.23 118 +8.4 24
Northern Illinois 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 27.4% -6.6 89 21.0 84 27.6 89 -1.52 109 +4.7 41
Tulane 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 25.3% -7.4 90 21.0 83 28.4 96 0.36 46 -10.5 107
UTEP 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 25.0% -7.4 91 24.0 59 31.5 112 -0.88 92 -6.0 92
Akron 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 24.5% -7.6 92 17.4 100 25.0 73 -1.16 102 -4.6 86
Colorado State 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 23.7% -7.9 93 18.0 96 25.9 76 -0.50 82 -5.2 89
Stanford 1-11 1.7 (0.7) 22.4% -8.4 94 15.4 109 23.8 64 1.69 4 -5.3 90
UL-Monroe 4-8 6.1 (2.1) 21.3% -8.8 95 19.4 90 28.2 93 -1.93 115 +3.1 52
Troy 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 21.2% -8.8 96 17.5 98 26.4 79 -1.88 114 +3.1 51
SMU 6-6 6.1 (0.1) 21.2% -8.8 97 21.3 82 30.1 106 -1.85 113 -0.4 69
Toledo 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 20.9% -8.9 98 17.7 97 26.6 80 -1.04 96 +2.7 54
UNLV 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 20.9% -9.0 99 19.3 91 28.2 94 0.22 58 -4.0 84
San Diego State 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 19.8% -9.4 100 16.6 106 26.0 77 0.31 52 -8.7 102
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Marshall 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 18.9% -9.8 101 23.0 73 32.7 114 -1.09 98 -2.2 76
Utah State 1-11 1.2 (0.2) 15.4% -11.2 102 18.9 95 30.2 107 1.79 2 -15.9 117
Miami (Ohio) 2-10 4.0 (2.0) 14.3% -11.8 103 16.0 107 27.8 91 -1.06 97 -2.4 78
Duke 0-12 1.8 (1.8) 13.4% -12.2 104 15.1 111 27.4 85 0.55 35 -11.1 109
Florida Atlantic 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 12.9% -12.5 105 11.6 117 24.1 68 -1.32 107 -2.7 80
Kent State 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 12.6% -12.6 106 12.7 115 25.4 75 -2.21 117 -16.4 118
Memphis 2-10 3.5 (1.5) 11.7% -13.1 107 20.4 85 33.5 117 -1.15 101 -4.2 85
UL-Lafayette 6-6 4.7 (-1.3) 11.3% -13.4 108 15.6 108 29.0 100 -1.64 112 -7.6 99
New Mexico State 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 10.6% -13.8 109 22.9 74 36.7 119 -2.36 119 -2.2 75
Eastern Michigan 1-11 2.0 (1.0) 10.3% -14.0 110 15.3 110 29.3 102 -0.39 77 -8.4 101
Arkansas State 6-6 4.6 (-1.4) 9.7% -14.4 111 13.7 114 28.1 92 -1.24 103 -7.1 96
Bowling Green 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 9.6% -14.4 112 16.8 105 31.2 111 -1.59 111 -10.0 105
Louisiana Tech 3-10 3.0 (0.0) 8.3% -15.3 113 20.2 86 35.6 118 -0.17 71 -11.7 111
Army 3-9 2.2 (-0.8) 7.8% -15.7 114 13.8 113 29.5 103 -1.14 99 -13.4 113
Idaho 4-8 3.4 (-0.6) 7.1% -16.2 115 16.8 104 33.0 115 -0.53 84 -7.1 97
Florida International 0-12 2.4 (2.4) 5.5% -17.6 116 5.6 119 23.3 60 -0.76 88 -17.7 119
Buffalo 2-10 2.0 (0.0) 4.7% -18.5 117 14.9 112 33.5 116 -0.20 72 -14.8 114
North Texas 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 4.5% -18.8 118 8.9 118 27.6 90 -0.86 91 -9.4 103
Temple 1-11 0.9 (-0.1) 3.1% -20.6 119 12.1 116 32.6 113 0.93 19 -15.2 116