Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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2006 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/8/07

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
1 LSU 11-2 0.726 13-0 280.8 134.6 5 125.0 5 145.2 2 146.2 1 130.8 4 162.7 1
2 Louisville 12-1 0.697 12-1 274.8 140.3 2 135.1 3 143.8 4 134.5 7 111.6 24 156.0 2
3 Ohio State 12-1 0.729 12-1 271.5 134.3 6 123.7 6 141.3 5 137.2 4 122.2 9 148.5 4
4 Florida 13-1 0.685 13-1 268.6 128.8 7 116.4 15 144.9 3 139.7 3 130.1 5 153.3 3
5 Michigan 11-2 0.647 12-1 261.6 124.7 11 109.9 27 132.1 11 136.9 5 131.2 3 134.5 9
6 BYU 11-2 0.713 13-0 256.9 137.6 4 131.3 4 138.0 9 119.3 18 109.1 33 124.4 16
7 TCU 11-2 0.702 11-2 255.2 113.7 30 105.3 40 112.5 39 141.5 2 132.9 2 138.3 7
8 USC 11-2 0.667 12-1 254.2 123.9 12 114.9 20 134.9 10 130.2 9 120.8 14 141.7 6
9 West Virginia 11-2 0.642 13-0 253.5 143.3 1 140.8 2 146.5 1 110.2 34 99.5 64 121.4 21
10 Boise State 13-0 0.692 12-1 252.8 124.8 10 120.4 8 124.4 18 128.0 12 115.2 19 136.0 8
11 Virginia Tech 10-3 0.696 11-2 251.0 116.5 25 103.5 47 120.2 23 134.5 6 134.4 1 124.0 18
12 Hawaii 11-3 0.661 13-1 248.1 140.2 3 147.1 1 140.2 7 107.9 40 96.7 76 124.3 17
13 Oklahoma 11-3 0.636 13-1 246.2 116.1 26 107.0 37 128.7 14 130.1 10 122.0 10 142.2 5
14 Tennessee 9-4 0.588 10-3 245.8 127.9 9 113.7 23 140.4 6 117.9 21 108.6 35 125.7 15
15 Rutgers 11-2 0.673 10-3 245.4 115.2 28 108.4 32 115.7 31 130.1 11 127.1 6 126.0 14
16 Wisconsin 12-1 0.706 10-3 244.3 113.6 31 103.6 46 113.9 34 130.7 8 121.4 11 128.7 11
17 Clemson 8-5 0.668 11-2 240.9 119.1 18 114.6 21 122.0 21 121.8 15 114.7 21 127.3 12
18 Arkansas 10-4 0.611 12-2 240.3 119.1 17 115.4 17 130.2 12 121.2 16 119.7 15 130.2 10
19 South Carolina 8-5 0.585 12-1 237.0 128.3 8 120.5 7 139.5 8 108.8 37 99.7 61 120.7 23
20 Boston College 10-3 0.621 12-1 236.3 113.3 32 108.8 31 115.7 30 123.0 14 116.7 17 127.0 13
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
21 Texas 10-3 0.662 11-2 235.3 121.1 14 114.6 22 124.9 17 114.2 27 108.9 34 116.9 27
22 Auburn 11-2 0.638 9-4 233.4 120.5 16 109.7 29 126.7 15 112.9 30 107.6 37 114.0 35
23 Penn State 9-4 0.605 8-5 231.8 104.8 52 96.6 74 105.9 53 127.0 13 123.6 7 121.8 19
24 Nebraska 9-5 0.625 11-3 229.7 113.1 33 106.9 38 119.1 25 116.6 23 112.2 23 120.8 22
25 Georgia Tech 9-5 0.575 11-3 229.3 110.1 38 104.0 44 115.5 32 119.3 19 121.2 12 116.6 28
26 California 10-3 0.630 9-4 228.4 121.0 15 119.4 10 125.6 16 107.5 41 101.5 54 116.1 29
27 Notre Dame 10-3 0.565 7-6 227.1 122.3 13 117.9 13 130.0 13 104.8 51 98.5 67 114.1 34
28 Georgia 9-4 0.586 11-2 226.4 106.1 49 100.7 60 108.2 50 120.3 17 117.1 16 119.7 24
29 Missouri 8-5 0.606 11-2 225.6 115.3 27 111.1 24 117.8 29 110.3 33 110.1 31 108.8 45
30 Cincinnati 8-5 0.517 7-6 225.5 108.3 40 102.7 50 113.7 35 117.2 22 114.9 20 119.2 25
31 South Florida 9-4 0.576 12-1 225.4 106.2 47 102.1 55 110.0 47 119.2 20 123.4 8 114.7 31
32 Texas Tech 8-5 0.563 11-2 223.4 117.7 20 119.1 11 122.2 20 105.8 46 106.2 42 110.7 40
33 Texas A&M 9-4 0.576 10-3 223.0 116.6 23 109.8 28 119.5 24 106.4 43 99.5 62 109.7 42
34 Florida State 7-6 0.570 9-4 222.8 108.2 41 102.2 54 118.8 26 114.6 25 112.3 22 121.7 20
35 Oklahoma State 7-6 0.579 9-4 222.1 117.0 21 115.8 16 120.7 22 105.0 50 103.1 50 109.2 44
36 Alabama 6-7 0.544 8-5 220.9 107.4 45 102.4 53 113.1 38 113.6 29 109.7 32 118.2 26
37 Nevada 8-5 0.609 6-7 220.3 105.7 50 99.1 63 107.0 51 114.6 26 110.8 28 112.7 37
38 Miami 7-6 0.558 10-3 220.1 104.3 53 98.3 66 111.0 45 115.8 24 120.8 13 111.6 39
39 Pittsburgh 6-6 0.582 9-3 219.8 118.0 19 120.1 9 118.2 27 101.9 57 100.2 60 105.7 53
40 Oregon State 10-4 0.555 9-5 217.3 109.2 39 108.8 30 112.5 40 108.2 39 106.3 41 112.9 36
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
41 Oregon 7-6 0.526 10-3 217.3 111.7 35 114.9 19 115.5 33 105.6 48 103.5 48 114.2 33
42 Utah 8-5 0.584 8-5 216.2 114.4 29 110.2 25 113.5 37 101.8 58 99.4 65 99.5 64
43 Arizona State 7-6 0.516 8-5 216.2 110.7 37 108.2 33 112.4 41 105.5 49 105.5 44 104.6 56
44 UCLA 7-6 0.535 8-5 216.1 102.0 59 94.1 79 108.9 49 114.1 28 111.2 25 116.0 30
45 Iowa 6-7 0.535 10-3 216.0 106.7 46 107.0 35 110.3 46 109.4 35 111.1 26 111.9 38
46 Houston 10-4 0.584 10-4 214.9 113.0 34 116.8 14 113.6 36 102.0 55 98.4 68 109.6 43
47 Southern Miss 9-5 0.577 8-6 214.3 103.2 57 98.3 67 105.2 54 111.0 31 110.9 27 108.0 47
48 Wake Forest 11-3 0.583 8-6 213.8 108.2 42 102.7 51 112.1 42 105.6 47 101.1 57 108.6 46
49 Tulsa 8-5 0.578 9-4 213.6 107.6 44 104.4 42 111.4 43 106.0 45 107.8 36 104.8 55
50 Minnesota 6-7 0.524 7-6 212.5 116.9 22 118.1 12 118.2 27 95.6 73 92.3 93 101.1 62
51 Kentucky 8-5 0.484 4-9 210.4 116.6 24 115.1 18 123.3 19 93.8 82 84.2 115 107.6 48
52 East Carolina 7-6 0.509 10-3 209.1 99.9 62 96.8 73 101.0 65 109.2 36 105.4 45 110.7 40
53 Maryland 9-4 0.500 6-7 206.2 111.5 36 110.1 26 111.3 44 94.7 79 90.8 94 97.0 72
54 Kansas 6-6 0.532 8-4 204.8 101.4 60 102.5 52 96.0 80 103.4 53 100.9 58 101.5 60
55 Washington State 6-6 0.516 8-4 204.7 103.9 54 103.5 48 109.3 48 100.8 61 101.2 56 105.1 54
56 Wyoming 6-6 0.493 6-6 203.5 92.8 89 88.3 102 98.4 70 110.7 32 115.8 18 107.0 49
57 Central Michigan 10-4 0.571 6-8 202.9 106.2 48 104.3 43 103.3 59 96.7 67 96.6 77 92.6 82
58 Navy 9-4 0.584 6-7 202.0 108.1 43 107.6 34 104.3 57 93.9 81 90.6 95 93.4 80
59 Kansas State 7-6 0.488 6-7 200.9 94.0 82 91.6 89 95.6 81 106.9 42 106.4 40 106.6 50
60 Virginia 5-7 0.454 7-5 199.8 93.6 84 91.1 91 96.2 79 106.2 44 110.1 30 102.5 58
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
61 Illinois 2-10 0.422 7-5 199.5 97.6 67 97.1 70 106.6 52 101.9 56 106.6 39 106.1 52
62 Vanderbilt 4-8 0.482 6-6 198.5 102.3 58 105.4 39 102.4 61 96.2 69 96.3 80 99.0 65
63 New Mexico 6-7 0.477 5-8 198.0 93.7 83 90.3 97 95.4 83 104.2 52 105.0 46 101.5 59
64 Northern Illinois 7-6 0.545 4-9 197.6 103.4 55 101.4 58 100.0 67 94.2 80 92.3 92 91.1 87
65 Purdue 8-6 0.493 7-7 196.7 103.4 56 107.0 36 105.1 55 93.3 84 92.5 91 99.0 66
66 Arizona 6-6 0.459 3-9 196.7 88.0 100 78.9 114 103.4 58 108.7 38 110.8 29 114.4 32
67 Western Michigan 8-5 0.535 6-7 195.1 94.9 78 92.5 87 94.5 87 100.3 62 99.5 63 98.2 68
68 Air Force 4-8 0.480 4-8 194.6 105.0 51 102.0 56 104.8 56 89.6 94 85.2 112 91.2 85
69 Ohio 9-5 0.522 6-8 194.2 93.0 88 90.8 93 88.7 102 101.2 59 102.7 51 92.7 81
70 Colorado 2-10 0.423 4-8 194.1 91.9 94 91.0 92 91.7 94 102.2 54 106.7 38 96.4 73
71 Washington 5-7 0.457 7-5 192.6 95.2 75 96.2 75 98.3 71 97.4 65 98.0 71 100.8 63
72 N.C. State 3-9 0.445 6-6 191.9 93.4 86 94.1 78 100.2 66 98.4 63 103.3 49 101.4 61
73 San Jose State 9-4 0.546 4-9 191.9 97.2 70 96.9 72 97.1 76 94.7 78 97.9 72 91.2 86
74 UTEP 5-7 0.467 4-8 191.5 96.2 71 99.2 62 93.6 90 95.4 76 96.5 78 94.6 78
75 Michigan State 4-8 0.470 6-6 191.2 95.8 74 97.0 71 98.2 72 95.4 75 98.1 69 96.2 75
76 Northwestern 4-8 0.387 4-8 190.8 97.9 66 100.8 59 102.1 63 92.9 85 93.5 87 98.9 67
77 UL-Monroe 4-8 0.494 4-8 190.6 101.3 61 103.2 49 95.2 84 89.3 98 88.4 104 86.5 101
78 Syracuse 4-8 0.415 3-9 190.6 95.1 77 93.0 83 103.1 60 95.5 74 93.9 84 103.1 57
79 Marshall 5-7 0.470 3-9 190.5 99.8 64 103.7 45 95.6 81 90.8 93 89.2 100 92.1 83
80 Fresno State 4-8 0.448 4-8 190.2 93.3 87 91.3 90 96.9 78 97.0 66 101.7 53 94.0 79
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
81 Middle Tennessee 7-6 0.493 5-8 189.8 92.4 91 90.3 98 97.0 77 97.4 64 100.3 59 97.1 71
82 Central Florida 4-8 0.401 5-7 188.8 97.4 68 101.7 57 92.7 93 91.4 89 93.7 85 88.8 95
83 Connecticut 4-8 0.442 5-7 188.4 92.7 90 90.0 99 102.2 62 95.8 70 102.2 52 96.3 74
84 Akron 5-7 0.465 5-7 188.1 95.9 73 98.6 65 90.8 98 92.2 87 96.0 82 86.0 102
85 SMU 6-6 0.525 4-8 187.8 92.2 93 90.4 96 91.2 96 95.6 72 97.5 73 90.8 89
86 Ole Miss 4-8 0.406 3-9 186.9 91.2 98 87.0 104 97.2 75 95.7 71 98.0 70 95.2 76
87 Troy 8-5 0.504 5-8 186.5 94.0 81 93.7 80 90.3 100 92.5 86 93.7 86 87.5 98
88 Ball State 5-7 0.513 3-9 186.4 99.8 63 97.6 69 98.4 68 86.6 108 84.5 114 85.6 105
89 Indiana 5-7 0.413 4-8 185.4 94.2 79 93.3 82 101.1 64 91.2 92 90.6 96 97.6 69
90 Baylor 4-8 0.420 6-6 185.4 94.1 80 93.6 81 97.4 74 91.3 91 93.4 88 91.8 84
91 Rice 7-6 0.449 4-9 185.2 97.2 69 97.7 68 98.4 68 87.9 102 86.9 108 90.5 92
92 Tulane 4-8 0.359 5-7 185.0 91.6 97 95.3 76 94.7 86 93.4 83 96.5 79 97.4 70
93 Mississippi State 3-9 0.415 3-9 183.8 82.8 107 79.8 112 93.4 91 100.9 60 104.6 47 106.4 51
94 New Mexico State 4-8 0.503 4-8 182.3 96.0 72 98.8 64 91.1 97 86.3 109 88.5 103 82.0 112
95 Colorado State 4-8 0.434 5-7 182.3 91.0 99 88.5 101 93.8 89 91.3 90 96.9 74 86.0 103
96 UAB 3-9 0.430 2-10 181.7 92.3 92 92.8 85 93.0 92 89.4 96 89.1 102 90.7 91
97 Toledo 5-7 0.458 3-9 181.4 84.8 104 84.1 108 84.2 105 96.6 68 101.5 55 90.3 94
98 UL-Lafayette 6-6 0.455 4-8 180.9 93.5 85 92.9 84 94.1 88 87.4 106 89.7 97 85.1 106
99 North Carolina 3-9 0.370 3-9 180.0 98.0 65 104.8 41 97.5 73 82.0 113 86.8 109 82.5 111
100 Memphis 2-10 0.435 1-11 179.6 91.6 96 90.7 94 91.7 95 88.0 101 87.6 107 87.7 96
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
101 Iowa State 4-8 0.380 2-10 178.8 95.1 76 100.1 61 94.9 85 83.7 112 86.5 110 85.0 108
102 Kent State 6-6 0.468 5-7 177.6 85.5 102 90.7 95 79.1 111 92.1 88 99.1 66 83.7 110
103 Arkansas State 6-6 0.385 3-9 175.4 87.9 101 92.7 86 83.7 107 87.5 104 89.1 101 86.6 100
104 Bowling Green 4-8 0.408 4-8 173.7 91.8 95 94.2 77 88.7 103 81.9 114 85.2 111 78.0 118
105 Miami (Ohio) 2-10 0.422 3-9 173.2 84.9 103 87.5 103 83.2 108 88.4 100 92.6 90 85.1 106
106 San Diego State 3-9 0.342 3-9 172.1 82.7 108 81.6 110 90.4 99 89.4 97 94.7 83 91.0 88
107 UNLV 2-10 0.384 1-11 171.8 84.1 105 88.8 100 83.9 106 87.6 103 89.2 99 90.7 90
108 Florida Atlantic 5-7 0.374 3-9 171.6 82.2 109 84.8 106 84.3 104 89.4 95 96.9 75 87.1 99
109 Idaho 4-8 0.326 2-10 169.3 81.7 110 84.8 107 80.7 110 87.5 105 92.7 89 84.4 109
110 Stanford 1-11 0.251 2-10 167.0 78.2 113 77.8 116 90.2 101 88.8 99 96.0 81 94.7 77
111 Florida International 0-12 0.267 3-9 165.1 70.1 118 72.0 118 72.8 118 94.9 77 105.6 43 90.3 93
112 Eastern Michigan 1-11 0.341 2-10 164.0 79.4 112 82.8 109 75.1 113 84.6 110 88.0 106 80.2 115
113 Louisiana Tech 3-10 0.308 0-13 162.6 83.0 106 92.1 88 73.0 117 79.6 117 80.4 117 77.8 119
114 Army 3-9 0.409 3-9 162.6 75.5 115 78.2 115 73.9 115 87.1 107 89.5 98 86.0 103
115 Duke 0-12 0.304 2-10 159.2 79.6 111 85.4 105 78.8 112 79.6 116 82.9 116 81.1 113
116 North Texas 3-9 0.336 2-10 158.4 73.8 117 74.2 117 73.6 116 84.6 111 88.3 105 81.0 114
117 Utah State 1-11 0.218 0-12 155.2 74.8 116 79.0 113 81.3 109 80.3 115 84.5 113 87.6 97
118 Buffalo 2-10 0.337 1-11 154.7 77.5 114 80.8 111 74.2 114 77.3 118 75.9 119 78.6 117
119 Temple 1-11 0.208 0-12 136.9 60.0 119 59.9 119 63.5 119 76.9 119 79.3 118 79.0 116