Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2007 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/7/08

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): A simple schedule measure based on average S&P+ ratings and normal distributions.
  • Weighted S&P+ rating: This is an attempt to measure how a team was playing at the end of a given season, with extra weight given to the most recent games. It is limited in power by small sample sizes, but it is useful in determining which teams finished strong and which derived most of their good (or bad) final ratings from early-season play.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
West Virginia 11-2 11.3 (0.3) 98.5% +24.1 1 40.9 4 16.9 9 0.86 24 +19.6 3
LSU 12-2 10.8 (-1.2) 97.9% +22.6 2 37.5 13 14.8 3 1.43 13 +12.0 11
Florida 9-4 10.4 (1.4) 97.5% +21.8 3 47.0 1 25.2 52 1.04 17 +15.6 7
Ohio State 11-2 11.4 (0.4) 97.3% +21.3 4 33.5 22 12.2 1 0.15 54 +20.4 2
Oregon 9-4 9.6 (0.6) 96.0% +19.3 5 39.5 8 20.2 19 1.34 14 +10.5 18
Oklahoma 11-3 10.9 (-0.1) 95.2% +18.5 6 39.8 6 21.3 28 0.56 41 +10.2 21
South Florida 8-4 8.3 (0.3) 94.7% +17.9 7 33.8 20 15.9 6 1.74 3 +2.5 51
USC 11-2 11.3 (0.3) 93.5% +16.8 8 33.1 25 16.3 7 -0.13 62 +18.2 5
Tennessee 10-4 9.9 (-0.1) 93.3% +16.6 9 38.0 10 21.4 29 1.49 11 +11.4 14
Missouri 12-2 10.9 (-1.1) 92.3% +15.8 10 40.0 5 24.2 45 0.77 29 +13.2 10
Texas 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 91.4% +15.1 11 37.9 11 22.7 39 0.54 43 +1.6 57
Penn State 9-4 9.8 (0.8) 90.9% +14.8 12 31.6 34 16.8 8 0.21 53 +5.1 36
Georgia 11-2 9.7 (-1.3) 90.3% +14.4 13 34.8 16 20.5 21 0.90 21 +26.2 1
Virginia Tech 11-3 10.1 (-0.9) 90.2% +14.3 14 28.9 59 14.5 2 0.79 28 +9.7 22
Michigan 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 88.2% +13.1 15 31.1 38 18.0 12 1.16 16 +7.9 27
Oklahoma State 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 87.2% +12.6 16 41.9 2 29.4 71 1.21 15 +0.3 66
Kansas 12-1 10.9 (-1.1) 84.2% +11.1 17 33.3 23 22.2 35 -1.14 102 +11.7 12
BYU 11-2 10.1 (-0.9) 83.9% +11.0 18 31.4 36 20.4 20 -0.47 75 +14.2 8
Illinois 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 83.8% +10.9 19 33.5 21 22.6 38 0.60 37 +7.9 28
Rutgers 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 83.5% +10.8 20 33.0 27 22.2 34 0.04 58 +1.9 55
Kentucky 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 83.1% +10.6 21 36.6 14 25.9 59 0.83 27 +3.8 44
Texas Tech 9-4 9.5 (0.5) 82.9% +10.5 22 39.7 7 29.2 69 -0.56 79 +6.2 33
California 7-6 8.4 (1.4) 82.0% +10.2 23 34.1 19 24.0 44 0.85 25 +3.2 46
Cincinnati 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 81.9% +10.1 24 31.7 33 21.6 31 -0.52 77 +10.9 17
Auburn 9-4 7.8 (-1.2) 81.3% +9.8 25 28.1 62 18.3 13 0.66 35 +8.3 26
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Washington 4-9 5.1 (1.1) 81.2% +9.8 26 35.1 15 25.3 53 2.01 1 +2.0 53
Nebraska 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 81.2% +9.8 27 41.1 3 31.3 81 1.99 2 +0.0 68
Boston College 11-3 10.4 (-0.6) 81.1% +9.8 28 29.8 50 20.1 18 0.00 59 +4.4 42
South Carolina 6-6 6.5 (0.5) 80.8% +9.6 29 30.7 42 21.1 24 1.55 7 +4.6 40
UCLA 6-7 6.1 (0.1) 80.4% +9.5 30 24.6 83 15.1 4 1.61 6 +5.0 38
Oregon State 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 80.3% +9.5 31 25.0 77 15.5 5 0.59 38 +11.4 13
Michigan State 7-6 8.0 (1.0) 80.1% +9.4 32 34.4 18 25.0 50 0.84 26 +4.0 43
Texas A&M 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 78.5% +8.7 33 34.5 17 25.8 57 1.49 9 +5.4 35
Arizona State 10-3 8.1 (-1.9) 78.4% +8.7 34 30.2 45 21.5 30 0.57 40 +0.3 67
Boise State 10-3 9.7 (-0.3) 78.3% +8.7 35 33.1 26 24.4 46 -1.43 109 +10.3 19
Utah 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 78.1% +8.6 36 26.4 68 17.8 10 -0.09 61 +19.3 4
Clemson 9-4 8.7 (-0.3) 77.8% +8.5 37 30.1 46 21.7 32 -0.43 73 +9.5 24
East Carolina 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 77.0% +8.2 38 32.8 29 24.6 47 0.45 45 +8.4 25
Wisconsin 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 75.1% +7.5 39 32.9 28 25.4 54 0.23 51 +6.4 32
TCU 8-5 9.1 (1.1) 75.1% +7.5 40 25.3 76 17.8 11 -0.27 67 +15.8 6
Florida State 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 69.7% +5.7 41 26.8 66 21.1 26 0.62 36 -4.4 82
Virginia 9-4 7.0 (-2.0) 69.6% +5.7 42 25.6 72 19.9 17 0.28 49 +7.7 29
Central Florida 10-4 9.7 (-0.3) 68.7% +5.4 43 30.9 40 25.5 55 -0.40 72 +11.3 15
Maryland 6-7 6.5 (0.5) 67.8% +5.1 44 28.9 58 23.8 43 0.59 39 +4.4 41
Arkansas 8-5 8.9 (0.9) 67.3% +5.0 45 30.0 48 25.0 51 -0.72 84 +7.3 30
Arizona 5-7 6.3 (1.3) 66.9% +4.8 46 28.3 61 23.5 42 0.77 30 +0.8 62
Louisville 6-6 5.6 (-0.4) 66.7% +4.8 47 38.2 9 33.4 93 0.51 44 +1.9 54
Kansas State 5-7 7.1 (2.1) 63.7% +3.9 48 32.7 30 28.8 68 -0.17 64 -5.3 92
Pittsburgh 5-7 6.1 (1.1) 63.2% +3.7 49 23.6 89 19.9 15 0.55 42 +5.8 34
Purdue 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 63.0% +3.7 50 30.0 47 26.4 60 -0.33 70 +1.1 60
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Colorado 6-7 5.6 (-0.4) 62.8% +3.6 51 28.3 60 24.7 49 0.93 20 +0.9 61
Tulsa 10-4 8.8 (-1.2) 62.7% +3.6 52 37.5 12 34.0 95 -0.47 76 +9.5 23
Vanderbilt 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 62.5% +3.5 53 24.6 82 21.1 25 0.68 34 +0.7 64
Fresno State 9-4 9.2 (0.2) 61.7% +3.3 54 33.2 24 29.9 75 -0.84 93 +4.6 39
Mississippi State 7-5 4.8 (-2.2) 61.2% +3.2 55 23.1 91 19.9 16 1.49 10 +3.0 47
Wake Forest 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 61.2% +3.1 56 24.9 79 21.7 33 -0.32 68 +10.3 20
Alabama 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 60.9% +3.1 57 26.2 70 23.2 40 0.04 57 +3.5 45
Air Force 9-4 8.7 (-0.3) 59.9% +2.8 58 29.7 52 26.9 61 -0.81 89 -0.4 71
Connecticut 9-4 7.6 (-1.4) 56.4% +1.8 59 24.1 86 22.3 36 -0.46 74 +1.6 56
NC State 4-7 3.5 (-0.5) 55.4% +1.5 60 24.7 81 23.2 41 1.51 8 +1.4 58
Georgia Tech 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 54.5% +1.3 61 25.9 71 24.7 48 -0.68 82 -3.1 75
Wyoming 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 53.6% +1.0 62 20.8 108 19.8 14 0.68 33 -5.3 90
New Mexico 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 52.8% +0.8 63 22.0 100 21.2 27 -0.95 98 +5.0 37
Troy 8-4 7.5 (-0.5) 52.7% +0.8 64 29.5 54 28.7 66 -0.84 94 +10.9 16
Hawaii 12-1 10.7 (-1.3) 52.6% +0.7 65 32.2 32 31.5 83 -2.46 119 +14.1 9
Indiana 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 50.7% +0.2 66 29.7 51 29.5 73 -0.26 66 -3.2 77
Washington State 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 48.6% -0.4 67 30.5 44 30.9 79 0.70 32 +1.2 59
Southern Miss 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 48.2% -0.5 68 27.8 65 28.3 64 -0.83 92 +2.5 52
Iowa 6-6 6.6 (0.6) 46.9% -0.9 69 20.1 111 20.9 23 -0.67 81 -3.8 81
Miami-FL 5-7 5.8 (0.8) 44.6% -1.5 70 21.0 106 22.5 37 -0.17 63 -8.3 103
Stanford 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 40.4% -2.7 71 23.1 90 25.8 56 0.88 22 -6.0 93
North Carolina 4-8 5.4 (1.4) 39.5% -2.9 72 22.9 93 25.8 58 -0.22 65 -6.3 94
Iowa State 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 38.6% -3.2 73 25.4 75 28.6 65 1.68 5 -2.3 74
Ole Miss 3-9 3.2 (0.2) 38.5% -3.3 74 24.8 80 28.0 63 0.87 23 -5.3 91
Ball State 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 37.6% -3.5 75 30.5 43 34.0 97 -1.10 100 -7.2 98
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Florida Atlantic 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 36.3% -3.9 76 27.9 63 31.8 87 -0.73 86 +6.4 31
Central Michigan 8-6 7.8 (-0.2) 36.0% -4.0 77 32.6 31 36.5 108 -0.82 90 -0.6 72
Minnesota 1-11 3.2 (2.2) 35.4% -4.2 78 31.0 39 35.2 100 0.74 31 -6.7 97
Colorado State 3-9 4.3 (1.3) 34.3% -4.5 79 26.8 67 31.3 82 0.04 56 -3.4 79
UTEP 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 33.5% -4.7 80 31.6 35 36.3 107 -0.52 78 -4.5 86
Houston 8-5 6.2 (-1.8) 33.0% -4.9 81 29.3 56 34.2 98 -1.32 105 -9.4 104
UNLV 2-10 2.7 (0.7) 32.6% -5.0 82 22.7 95 27.7 62 1.01 19 -18.3 117
Notre Dame 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 32.6% -5.0 83 15.8 117 20.8 22 1.44 12 -3.8 80
Marshall 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 31.3% -5.4 84 30.0 49 35.4 101 0.13 55 +2.6 50
SMU 1-11 4.7 (3.7) 31.1% -5.5 85 30.7 41 36.2 106 -0.07 60 +2.8 48
Western Michigan 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 28.4% -6.3 86 24.4 84 30.7 78 -1.00 99 -3.1 76
Louisiana Tech 4-7 3.6 (-0.4) 27.8% -6.5 87 22.3 97 28.8 67 0.24 50 -7.4 99
Nevada 6-7 7.1 (1.1) 27.3% -6.7 88 29.0 57 35.7 103 -1.52 111 -4.4 83
Baylor 3-9 2.9 (-0.1) 25.3% -7.4 89 23.7 88 31.1 80 1.04 18 -15.2 116
Syracuse 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 25.2% -7.4 90 22.9 92 30.3 76 1.69 4 -10.4 105
Middle Tennessee 5-7 6.1 (1.1) 25.1% -7.4 91 24.1 85 31.5 85 -1.50 110 -1.1 73
San Diego State 4-8 3.3 (-0.7) 23.1% -8.2 92 29.4 55 37.5 111 0.22 52 -5.2 89
Northwestern 6-6 4.1 (-1.9) 21.4% -8.8 93 25.5 73 34.3 99 -0.38 71 -7.6 101
Navy 8-5 6.4 (-1.6) 20.4% -9.2 94 31.3 37 40.4 117 -1.57 113 -4.9 88
Bowling Green 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 19.6% -9.5 95 26.3 69 35.8 104 -1.60 114 +2.6 49
Arkansas State 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 18.5% -9.9 96 22.1 99 32.0 88 -0.93 97 -6.4 96
Akron 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 16.9% -10.6 97 18.7 114 29.4 72 -0.65 80 -7.5 100
UL-Monroe 6-6 5.8 (-0.2) 16.5% -10.8 98 22.7 94 33.5 94 -1.53 112 -0.3 70
Ohio 5-6 5.4 (0.4) 15.7% -11.1 99 22.1 98 33.3 92 -1.81 116 -0.2 69
Kent State 3-9 4.5 (1.5) 15.7% -11.1 100 20.5 110 31.7 86 -1.26 103 -18.3 118
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Toledo 5-7 3.4 (-1.6) 15.6% -11.2 101 29.6 53 40.8 118 -0.87 95 -6.4 95
Utah State 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 15.2% -11.4 102 21.2 104 32.6 90 0.35 48 -11.4 109
San Jose State 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 14.5% -11.7 103 20.8 107 32.5 89 -0.83 91 -4.7 87
Duke 1-11 2.1 (1.1) 14.3% -11.8 104 19.7 112 31.5 84 0.42 46 -19.5 119
Rice 3-9 3.5 (0.5) 13.0% -12.5 105 27.9 64 40.4 116 -0.78 88 -4.5 85
New Mexico State 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 12.5% -12.7 106 24.9 78 37.6 112 -0.75 87 -13.4 113
Buffalo 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 12.0% -13.0 107 21.0 105 34.0 96 -1.42 108 -13.0 112
UL-Lafayette 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 11.7% -13.2 108 25.5 74 38.7 114 -1.12 101 +0.4 65
Miami-OH 6-7 4.7 (-1.3) 10.8% -13.7 109 16.7 116 30.5 77 -1.34 107 -10.8 106
Temple 4-8 4.2 (0.2) 10.5% -13.9 110 15.4 118 29.3 70 -1.27 104 -8.2 102
Tulane 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 10.0% -14.2 111 22.4 96 36.6 109 -1.86 117 +0.7 63
Idaho 1-11 2.2 (1.2) 9.1% -14.8 112 21.3 103 36.1 105 -0.69 83 -14.6 114
Army 3-9 2.0 (-1.0) 8.7% -15.0 113 14.7 119 29.7 74 -0.33 69 -12.2 111
Eastern Michigan 4-8 3.7 (-0.3) 8.5% -15.2 114 21.5 102 36.7 110 -1.64 115 -3.3 78
Memphis 7-6 5.2 (-1.8) 8.1% -15.5 115 23.9 87 39.4 115 -1.99 118 -4.5 84
Northern Illinois 2-10 4.0 (2.0) 7.3% -16.1 116 19.6 113 35.6 102 -1.33 106 -15.1 115
Florida International 1-11 1.7 (0.7) 7.3% -16.1 117 16.7 115 32.9 91 0.40 47 -10.8 107
UAB 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 5.8% -17.4 118 20.6 109 38.0 113 -0.72 85 -12.0 110
North Texas 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 4.1% -19.2 119 22.0 101 41.2 119 -0.93 96 -11.2 108