Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2007 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/7/08

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
1 Ohio State 11-2 0.711 13-0 277.6 129.1 3 109.1 34 131.9 10 148.5 1 145.2 1 132.0 9
2 USC 11-2 0.670 12-1 262.4 121.5 10 112.0 23 131.2 15 140.8 2 135.6 2 146.1 5
3 LSU 12-2 0.658 13-1 261.2 126.0 6 117.4 12 148.7 4 135.2 3 122.2 6 163.3 2
4 West Virginia 11-2 0.687 12-1 259.8 128.4 5 123.1 3 146.2 5 131.5 5 121.2 8 154.5 3
5 Florida 9-4 0.625 11-2 249.3 140.7 1 142.8 1 151.8 3 108.5 38 98.9 66 128.4 16
6 Missouri 12-2 0.631 11-3 248.6 130.2 2 118.8 10 155.0 1 118.4 17 110.3 30 138.7 8
7 Oklahoma 11-3 0.676 12-2 247.9 118.5 15 113.5 16 143.2 6 129.4 7 116.3 14 163.9 1
8 Virginia Tech 11-3 0.641 12-2 247.1 116.5 20 105.9 39 125.4 21 130.6 6 128.5 4 130.8 12
9 Kansas 12-1 0.722 12-1 245.1 112.7 32 109.5 31 118.7 30 132.4 4 120.2 9 148.0 4
10 Oregon 9-4 0.617 11-2 244.0 128.5 4 122.5 4 153.2 2 115.5 22 107.8 40 140.0 7
11 Clemson 9-4 0.639 9-4 239.6 116.4 21 108.9 35 122.0 26 123.2 11 114.7 17 129.7 13
12 South Florida 9-4 0.597 12-1 239.2 112.2 34 104.5 42 131.7 11 127.0 8 121.3 7 146.1 5
13 BYU 11-2 0.619 12-1 238.7 119.7 12 115.7 14 119.9 28 119.0 15 114.2 20 120.1 27
14 Penn State 9-4 0.631 12-1 237.5 116.2 23 110.8 28 118.1 32 121.3 13 116.1 15 123.0 25
15 Texas 10-3 0.595 11-2 236.0 120.0 11 111.8 24 131.6 13 116.1 21 114.2 19 121.2 26
16 Illinois 9-4 0.560 13-0 234.5 119.3 13 113.3 17 128.1 17 115.2 24 109.7 32 123.4 24
17 Auburn 9-4 0.589 11-2 233.7 111.6 35 101.6 55 125.7 19 122.1 12 119.3 11 129.2 14
18 Texas Tech 9-4 0.612 12-1 233.5 121.6 9 119.8 7 131.7 11 111.9 31 106.0 46 125.5 19
19 Cincinnati 10-3 0.659 10-3 232.3 114.0 28 107.4 36 118.3 31 118.4 18 110.8 29 123.5 23
20 Boston College 11-3 0.582 11-3 231.1 118.6 14 112.8 19 122.2 25 112.5 29 111.8 27 111.2 40
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
21 Rutgers 8-5 0.593 11-2 231.1 116.4 22 113.6 15 125.4 20 114.7 26 110.3 31 125.3 20
22 Georgia 11-2 0.618 8-5 231.0 113.9 30 107.3 37 129.2 16 117.1 19 112.1 26 131.0 11
23 Boise State 10-3 0.661 9-4 227.7 114.7 26 112.7 21 113.9 40 113.0 28 106.8 43 116.5 33
24 Tennessee 10-4 0.544 11-3 227.0 117.6 18 111.3 26 135.8 7 109.5 35 105.6 48 124.5 21
25 Kentucky 8-5 0.552 10-3 225.3 117.6 17 111.1 27 131.4 14 107.7 43 102.5 58 119.5 29
26 Michigan 9-4 0.559 8-5 225.0 105.1 51 100.7 59 113.8 42 119.9 14 117.4 12 127.3 17
27 Oregon State 9-4 0.552 8-5 225.0 98.9 68 97.9 72 104.9 56 126.1 9 129.6 3 129.1 15
28 Oklahoma State 7-6 0.540 8-5 225.0 125.6 7 123.9 2 135.7 8 99.4 67 93.4 85 111.9 39
29 Hawaii 12-1 0.630 12-1 223.9 115.5 25 121.3 6 115.0 36 108.4 41 106.8 42 115.1 35
30 Utah 9-4 0.607 9-4 223.8 105.2 49 99.5 63 105.1 55 118.6 16 115.6 16 115.0 36
31 UCLA 6-7 0.500 10-3 222.4 99.2 67 95.6 78 105.5 54 123.2 10 123.6 5 126.1 18
32 Arkansas 8-5 0.584 11-2 221.6 111.6 36 110.1 30 121.6 27 110.1 32 108.6 36 120.0 28
33 California 7-6 0.523 11-2 221.3 115.6 24 119.5 9 125.0 22 105.7 50 105.1 50 118.7 30
34 Central Florida 10-4 0.574 11-3 220.7 104.3 53 104.3 43 114.5 39 116.4 20 112.5 24 131.6 10
35 Arizona State 10-3 0.589 9-4 220.0 108.0 44 101.7 54 122.8 23 112.0 30 109.3 33 123.6 22
36 Michigan State 7-6 0.554 9-4 218.8 113.5 31 112.7 20 115.0 36 105.3 51 103.1 57 108.2 49
37 Connecticut 9-4 0.581 8-5 217.0 107.3 45 99.5 64 117.9 33 109.6 34 111.1 28 111.0 41
38 Louisville 6-6 0.528 8-4 216.9 125.0 8 122.0 5 133.0 9 92.0 87 87.0 107 100.6 67
39 Wisconsin 9-4 0.560 8-5 216.3 114.1 27 112.9 18 112.8 46 102.2 60 98.1 70 104.1 58
40 South Carolina 6-6 0.526 9-3 215.9 106.2 48 104.0 44 114.7 38 109.7 33 108.8 35 117.2 32
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
41 Tulsa 10-4 0.552 9-5 215.2 117.3 19 115.8 13 125.9 18 97.8 71 93.0 90 108.5 47
42 Texas A&M 7-6 0.519 10-3 214.4 108.4 41 102.9 52 119.3 29 106.0 47 105.0 51 112.2 37
43 Arizona 5-7 0.511 7-5 213.2 107.3 46 103.5 49 113.7 43 105.9 48 108.5 37 105.9 55
44 Air Force 9-4 0.587 7-6 212.4 112.6 33 109.4 32 117.9 33 99.8 66 98.6 67 102.9 61
45 TCU 8-5 0.581 9-4 212.2 97.2 74 95.5 80 97.9 72 115.0 25 119.5 10 109.4 46
46 New Mexico 9-4 0.562 6-7 212.0 98.9 69 94.2 83 97.5 74 113.2 27 113.1 23 106.3 53
47 Purdue 8-5 0.564 8-5 210.7 103.9 55 105.1 40 107.1 52 106.7 44 108.0 39 109.9 45
48 Alabama 7-6 0.552 6-7 210.6 104.2 54 98.0 71 113.5 44 106.4 45 106.1 45 110.2 44
49 Florida State 7-6 0.504 7-6 210.1 101.7 59 98.6 69 104.1 60 108.4 40 109.0 34 107.1 51
50 East Carolina 8-5 0.505 8-5 209.9 105.0 52 103.7 47 107.8 51 104.8 52 104.9 52 106.1 54
51 Fresno State 9-4 0.548 10-3 209.6 108.5 40 109.2 33 103.9 61 101.1 62 102.1 59 96.5 77
52 Troy 8-4 0.580 8-4 209.3 101.3 60 101.4 56 101.6 67 108.0 42 104.6 54 112.0 38
53 Georgia Tech 7-6 0.557 8-5 208.8 108.1 43 103.5 48 108.2 49 100.7 63 100.7 62 96.5 76
54 Washington 4-9 0.480 8-5 208.4 111.1 37 112.0 22 122.5 24 97.3 72 94.4 82 110.8 42
55 Virginia 9-4 0.552 9-4 208.3 102.0 58 97.8 73 110.2 47 106.3 46 108.5 38 108.4 48
56 Kansas State 5-7 0.533 9-3 207.6 105.1 50 103.8 46 107.0 53 102.5 58 105.5 49 99.9 69
57 Maryland 6-7 0.527 6-7 207.6 108.4 42 104.8 41 113.5 44 99.2 69 96.2 75 103.6 60
58 Nebraska 5-7 0.469 9-3 207.3 113.9 29 117.8 11 115.2 35 93.3 82 93.3 88 97.5 73
59 Wake Forest 9-4 0.556 5-8 205.5 96.6 76 96.0 76 94.9 78 108.9 37 114.4 18 101.0 66
60 Pittsburgh 5-7 0.485 7-5 205.1 89.7 94 85.7 107 96.9 75 115.4 23 116.6 13 118.3 31
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
61 Southern Miss 7-6 0.535 7-6 204.0 99.4 66 93.2 88 102.5 65 104.6 53 104.7 53 101.4 64
62 Indiana 7-6 0.527 7-6 203.8 100.7 61 96.8 75 102.0 66 103.1 57 102.0 60 101.4 64
63 Houston 8-5 0.542 10-3 202.7 102.1 57 103.8 45 98.4 70 100.6 64 100.0 63 99.1 70
64 Mississippi State 8-5 0.480 5-8 202.4 93.0 86 86.6 106 108.6 48 109.4 36 113.4 21 116.4 34
65 Colorado 6-7 0.480 6-7 202.1 97.6 73 95.5 79 104.2 59 104.5 54 103.6 56 110.3 43
66 Washington State 5-7 0.442 6-6 202.0 109.2 38 110.5 29 113.8 41 92.8 84 94.4 83 96.4 79
67 Nevada 6-7 0.509 9-4 200.2 106.8 47 106.9 38 104.3 58 93.4 81 94.9 80 89.7 90
68 Navy 8-5 0.519 7-6 198.6 117.7 16 119.8 8 108.1 50 80.9 118 76.1 119 80.4 111
69 Central Michigan 8-6 0.485 6-8 196.6 109.1 39 111.4 25 103.5 62 87.5 103 86.7 109 85.5 99
70 Miami 5-7 0.436 5-7 195.8 92.3 89 91.2 94 95.6 76 103.5 56 103.8 55 105.5 56
71 Florida Atlantic 8-5 0.484 5-8 195.4 95.0 82 95.9 77 95.5 77 100.4 65 99.7 64 102.5 63
72 North Carolina 4-8 0.468 7-5 195.1 98.3 72 100.2 61 93.5 84 96.8 73 96.2 76 94.5 81
73 Iowa 6-6 0.496 7-5 195.0 86.5 105 85.0 110 87.0 101 108.5 39 113.1 22 102.5 62
74 N.C. State 5-7 0.423 5-7 194.7 95.4 81 95.4 81 102.6 64 99.3 68 101.8 61 104.4 57
75 Wyoming 5-7 0.428 6-6 194.0 88.2 98 84.9 111 91.2 91 105.8 49 112.3 25 99.0 71
76 Ole Miss 3-9 0.413 3-9 193.0 96.2 78 98.6 70 103.4 63 96.8 74 95.7 78 107.3 50
77 Vanderbilt 5-7 0.490 8-4 192.9 89.0 95 88.9 101 90.7 93 103.9 55 105.6 47 103.9 59
78 Western Michigan 5-7 0.482 5-7 191.8 92.9 87 94.2 82 89.1 97 98.9 70 98.1 69 97.1 75
79 Ball State 7-6 0.526 6-7 191.0 96.5 77 97.4 74 94.1 82 94.4 79 96.2 74 91.2 84
80 Northwestern 6-6 0.454 7-5 190.9 100.1 64 100.5 60 98.5 69 90.9 93 92.1 95 88.7 92
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
81 Marshall 3-9 0.420 4-8 190.9 102.2 56 102.5 53 104.8 57 88.7 101 89.6 101 90.4 88
82 Colorado State 3-9 0.452 4-8 190.8 100.5 62 103.4 50 98.3 71 90.3 96 89.3 103 92.1 82
83 UTEP 4-8 0.475 3-9 190.4 99.7 65 100.8 58 97.5 73 90.7 95 92.1 93 88.2 93
84 Bowling Green 8-5 0.485 5-8 190.0 100.1 63 101.3 57 94.6 79 89.9 97 90.7 97 85.1 100
85 Louisiana Tech 5-7 0.403 4-8 189.3 87.1 103 86.9 105 88.4 98 102.2 61 106.4 44 99.0 71
86 Arkansas State 5-7 0.467 4-8 187.5 91.3 92 92.5 91 88.4 98 96.2 75 99.3 65 91.2 83
87 Stanford 4-8 0.409 2-10 187.5 95.0 83 92.9 90 100.9 68 92.5 85 92.1 94 96.4 78
88 UL-Monroe 6-6 0.459 2-10 185.9 91.8 91 90.0 97 93.1 85 94.1 80 96.7 73 90.9 85
89 SMU 1-11 0.416 4-8 185.2 95.8 80 100.1 62 87.3 100 89.5 99 93.4 87 81.7 108
90 Middle Tennessee 5-7 0.475 5-7 184.7 92.4 88 93.4 86 90.6 94 92.3 86 95.9 77 87.8 96
91 Minnesota 1-11 0.417 2-10 183.1 98.6 71 103.0 51 94.1 81 84.5 109 83.9 116 85.0 101
92 Ohio 6-6 0.505 4-8 183.1 92.1 90 93.7 84 84.5 104 90.9 92 93.1 89 82.8 106
93 New Mexico State 4-9 0.398 3-10 182.3 96.2 79 99.1 66 93.0 86 86.1 106 85.8 112 86.0 98
94 Toledo 5-7 0.457 3-9 182.1 98.8 70 99.0 67 92.1 88 83.4 113 84.2 114 77.1 115
95 Kent State 3-9 0.425 3-9 181.6 90.0 93 93.6 85 83.1 108 91.6 90 95.0 79 84.8 102
96 Iowa State 3-9 0.364 1-11 181.2 85.4 109 82.7 115 94.0 83 95.7 76 98.0 71 100.0 68
97 Memphis 7-6 0.476 4-9 180.5 94.4 85 92.0 92 91.3 90 86.1 105 86.2 110 81.0 109
98 UNLV 2-10 0.388 2-10 180.5 87.7 100 88.3 102 91.1 92 92.9 83 94.5 81 95.4 80
99 Miami (Ohio) 6-7 0.427 4-9 180.1 84.8 111 85.6 108 78.9 111 95.3 77 98.3 68 86.4 97
100 Notre Dame 3-9 0.362 2-10 180.0 77.6 117 71.9 119 90.4 95 102.4 59 107.1 41 106.9 52
S&P+
Rk
Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
101 UL-Lafayette 3-9 0.399 3-9 178.6 95.0 84 99.4 65 90.2 96 83.6 112 90.5 98 76.2 119
102 Akron 4-8 0.420 2-10 178.5 87.0 104 87.3 104 83.4 106 91.6 89 91.8 96 87.9 94
103 San Jose State 5-7 0.409 3-9 178.4 87.6 101 91.6 93 84.1 105 90.8 94 94.3 84 87.9 94
104 Tulane 4-8 0.439 1-11 177.4 88.5 97 90.4 96 82.4 109 88.9 100 90.1 100 83.4 104
105 Temple 4-8 0.384 3-9 177.2 82.5 113 84.4 114 78.8 112 94.7 78 97.6 72 90.0 89
106 Baylor 3-9 0.329 1-11 177.0 85.0 110 89.6 98 86.7 102 91.9 88 93.4 86 97.2 74
107 Buffalo 5-7 0.468 3-9 176.6 89.0 96 89.1 100 86.0 103 87.6 102 89.0 104 83.3 105
108 San Diego State 4-8 0.422 2-10 176.1 96.8 75 98.8 68 94.5 80 79.3 119 79.2 118 79.2 113
109 Rice 3-9 0.423 3-9 176.0 86.2 106 93.4 87 74.7 115 89.7 98 90.4 99 84.5 103
110 Syracuse 2-10 0.320 3-9 171.5 87.3 102 90.4 95 92.5 87 84.2 110 86.9 108 89.6 91
111 Duke 1-11 0.351 2-10 170.4 85.7 108 87.4 103 91.4 89 84.8 108 86.1 111 90.8 86
112 North Texas 2-10 0.355 3-9 169.1 86.1 107 93.0 89 76.4 114 83.1 114 87.1 106 76.3 118
113 Northern Illinois 2-10 0.382 3-9 168.8 81.9 114 84.8 113 74.6 116 86.9 104 92.6 92 76.5 117
114 Eastern Michigan 4-8 0.437 1-11 168.8 87.7 99 89.1 99 83.4 106 81.1 117 82.9 117 76.5 116
115 UAB 2-10 0.358 0-12 165.3 82.7 112 84.9 112 77.4 113 82.5 115 84.0 115 77.9 114
116 Idaho 1-11 0.368 0-12 165.1 79.3 116 85.1 109 71.8 117 85.8 107 89.5 102 80.4 111
117 Army 3-9 0.358 0-12 163.7 72.4 119 74.5 118 70.9 118 91.3 91 93.0 91 90.5 87
118 Utah State 2-10 0.378 0-12 162.4 80.2 115 81.7 116 80.3 110 82.2 116 85.4 113 80.5 110
119 Florida International 1-11 0.278 1-11 158.0 74.0 118 80.8 117 69.3 119 84.1 111 87.8 105 82.6 107