Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

printable version

Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

Need Help with KUBIAK or Premium?

blog advertising is good for you


2009 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/7/10

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
1 Florida 13-1 0.743 14-0 290.9 126.7 9 115.6 28 141.8 3 164.2 1 178.1 1 155.5 3
2 Alabama 14-0 0.731 14-0 284.4 142.3 1 140.9 6 148.0 2 142.1 5 125.4 17 163.2 2
3 Texas 13-1 0.702 14-0 280.5 129.7 4 113.8 32 153.2 1 150.8 2 129.3 10 181.0 1
4 Penn State 11-2 0.701 12-1 275.4 119.8 35 105.0 53 127.6 16 155.6 4 176.6 2 125.6 16
5 Oklahoma 8-5 0.678 12-1 269.0 109.7 60 78.2 106 130.6 9 159.3 3 152.1 3 151.1 4
6 Boise State 14-0 0.710 13-1 268.2 140.1 2 157.9 1 119.4 31 128.1 14 106.9 46 146.6 6
7 TCU 12-1 0.749 13-0 266.8 130.8 11 118.4 24 134.5 7 136.0 9 124.1 20 138.8 8
8 Nebraska 10-4 0.704 12-2 260.0 110.6 64 82.1 100 124.3 21 149.4 6 132.0 7 146.9 5
9 Virginia Tech 10-3 0.671 12-1 255.4 120.1 20 102.6 60 141.8 4 135.3 7 139.7 5 135.5 10
10 Ohio State 11-2 0.694 12-1 251.7 124.5 18 115.9 26 130.0 11 127.2 17 110.5 39 140.8 7
11 Iowa 11-2 0.600 11-2 248.2 114.0 43 107.6 44 114.8 42 134.1 10 128.7 12 132.9 12
12 Oregon State 8-5 0.557 9-4 245.3 128.9 10 139.2 7 113.8 46 116.4 30 125.2 18 103.4 56
13 Pittsburgh 10-3 0.619 12-1 240.5 126.1 14 125.3 16 123.9 23 114.5 34 104.7 54 121.6 22
14 BYU 11-2 0.621 11-2 239.1 114.9 30 107.2 46 128.0 15 124.1 13 123.0 21 131.0 13
15 Air Force 8-5 0.652 9-4 238.4 102.1 73 85.3 96 114.4 45 136.3 8 142.9 4 123.6 19
16 Wisconsin 10-3 0.593 11-2 237.2 122.5 15 121.5 20 126.1 20 114.7 27 110.5 38 121.4 23
17 Utah 10-3 0.596 13-0 237.2 124.7 13 138.1 8 111.5 50 112.5 36 102.0 59 123.1 20
18 Texas Tech 9-4 0.622 11-2 236.8 115.1 29 103.8 57 131.4 8 121.7 19 127.5 14 121.2 24
19 Tennessee 7-6 0.569 11-2 233.6 114.4 31 110.8 38 123.8 24 119.2 21 129.3 11 115.2 35
20 Texas A&M 6-7 0.495 8-5 231.3 112.9 33 106.8 48 126.9 18 118.4 20 130.9 8 114.3 36
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
21 Ole Miss 9-4 0.625 10-3 231.1 112.7 44 107.3 45 113.6 47 118.4 28 116.3 28 115.6 34
22 Cincinnati 12-1 0.626 11-2 230.8 132.0 5 135.9 10 128.9 13 98.8 69 89.3 92 109.0 45
23 South Carolina 7-6 0.503 11-2 230.6 104.1 57 95.1 74 115.4 41 126.5 11 126.6 16 129.1 14
24 Oregon 10-3 0.603 13-0 230.5 111.8 28 98.2 67 139.0 5 118.7 16 112.9 34 138.7 9
25 Notre Dame 6-6 0.536 8-4 230.3 120.8 17 125.0 17 121.5 27 109.6 39 109.6 40 114.1 37
26 Clemson 9-5 0.604 11-3 230.1 114.5 37 115.1 29 116.9 36 115.6 26 107.5 45 126.7 15
27 Arkansas 8-5 0.589 11-2 229.2 115.2 22 105.0 54 136.8 6 113.9 24 115.9 29 123.1 20
28 Houston 10-4 0.584 10-4 227.5 140.0 3 153.5 2 121.1 28 87.6 100 78.1 112 93.7 78
29 Oklahoma State 9-4 0.566 10-3 227.5 104.7 51 96.3 69 120.4 30 122.8 12 129.4 9 124.6 18
30 Central Michigan 12-2 0.641 11-3 225.6 117.7 26 118.4 23 119.0 32 107.9 43 101.1 61 116.7 31
31 Miami 9-4 0.578 8-5 225.5 116.0 25 114.3 30 123.8 25 109.4 37 111.4 36 113.3 38
32 USC 9-4 0.571 11-2 224.4 106.4 55 98.3 66 114.6 44 118.0 25 118.0 25 118.1 27
33 Boston College 8-5 0.555 5-8 223.2 100.2 65 88.8 90 116.4 37 122.9 15 127.0 15 124.7 17
34 Auburn 8-5 0.547 8-5 222.9 111.7 38 102.3 61 129.3 12 111.2 29 114.3 32 116.2 32
35 Georgia Tech 11-3 0.577 9-5 222.1 119.0 21 113.8 33 128.5 14 103.1 48 99.4 66 110.6 42
36 Wake Forest 5-7 0.501 6-6 221.8 125.4 7 143.6 5 116.1 39 96.4 65 88.9 95 110.8 41
37 Arizona 8-5 0.533 8-5 221.3 108.6 49 103.1 59 115.6 40 112.7 31 114.8 31 112.3 39
38 Connecticut 8-5 0.569 10-3 221.2 120.5 24 128.8 13 111.3 51 100.6 62 96.8 76 103.6 55
39 Florida State 7-6 0.501 9-4 220.3 126.3 8 135.1 11 124.2 22 94.0 76 90.2 87 102.9 58
40 Bowling Green 7-6 0.509 6-7 219.5 125.2 12 146.9 3 104.6 59 94.3 82 89.0 94 100.5 65
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
41 North Carolina 8-5 0.582 10-3 218.9 92.6 90 82.0 101 100.6 69 126.3 18 128.4 13 120.6 25
42 Navy 10-4 0.590 7-7 217.6 110.0 41 106.3 51 118.1 33 107.5 42 103.3 57 116.1 33
43 Purdue 5-7 0.488 9-3 217.3 107.0 48 106.4 50 113.0 48 110.3 33 106.5 49 119.8 26
44 LSU 9-4 0.604 12-1 217.0 103.6 45 93.5 79 127.1 17 113.4 23 108.0 41 133.6 11
45 Troy 9-4 0.531 8-5 216.1 109.4 50 104.4 55 113.0 48 106.7 46 105.5 51 106.5 47
46 Kansas 5-7 0.509 10-2 216.0 119.3 19 128.1 14 117.2 35 96.7 68 97.1 73 101.6 61
47 Missouri 8-5 0.524 8-5 215.9 115.6 32 113.1 35 121.0 29 100.3 52 97.1 74 106.2 48
48 South Florida 8-5 0.571 9-4 215.8 102.3 69 99.6 63 104.5 60 113.5 32 115.0 30 111.3 40
49 East Carolina 9-5 0.552 7-7 214.6 110.1 56 115.8 27 94.9 85 104.4 64 97.3 72 102.6 59
50 Georgia 8-5 0.527 11-2 213.5 112.8 27 106.8 49 130.6 9 100.8 45 95.5 79 116.7 30
51 Stanford 8-5 0.572 10-3 213.3 131.6 6 134.7 12 126.2 19 81.7 113 65.0 120 97.0 71
52 Mississippi State 5-7 0.489 9-3 209.5 99.0 71 92.2 80 108.7 54 110.5 38 106.7 48 117.7 28
53 Michigan State 6-7 0.530 12-1 208.9 112.6 34 110.0 39 123.2 26 96.3 66 89.2 93 110.4 43
54 Fresno State 8-5 0.543 5-8 208.9 110.5 46 109.4 41 110.8 52 98.4 72 101.8 60 94.2 77
55 California 8-5 0.533 9-4 207.5 114.9 36 124.3 19 108.2 56 92.6 85 90.0 88 97.5 69
56 Arizona State 4-8 0.514 8-4 207.4 84.9 108 78.2 105 90.1 99 122.6 22 137.5 6 105.5 49
57 Rutgers 9-4 0.615 5-8 207.3 96.8 86 93.5 78 92.1 93 110.5 47 119.0 24 92.9 81
58 Michigan 5-7 0.518 6-6 207.2 98.0 72 91.2 82 108.7 55 109.2 41 121.0 22 101.5 62
59 Northwestern 8-5 0.515 4-9 206.4 102.7 66 103.2 58 102.0 64 103.7 51 106.7 47 100.5 67
60 Temple 9-4 0.570 6-7 206.0 109.4 53 112.4 36 101.0 67 96.6 83 95.2 80 93.3 79
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
61 Middle Tennessee 10-3 0.575 7-6 205.5 92.7 89 90.9 83 92.6 90 112.9 40 119.4 23 103.9 54
62 West Virginia 9-4 0.547 10-3 205.2 107.3 47 112.2 37 107.7 58 97.9 59 83.1 103 117.7 29
63 UCLA 7-6 0.509 7-6 204.9 101.7 74 106.1 52 93.5 88 103.2 54 97.4 71 105.1 50
64 Marshall 7-6 0.473 4-9 204.9 107.1 61 113.9 31 94.6 86 97.8 80 98.7 67 91.7 85
65 UNLV 5-7 0.433 3-9 202.2 122.8 16 146.4 4 100.7 68 79.4 116 72.3 117 87.5 96
66 Nevada 8-5 0.572 10-3 202.1 105.9 58 95.1 73 114.8 43 96.2 78 93.3 82 97.4 70
67 Kentucky 7-6 0.534 5-8 201.9 102.2 63 90.8 84 116.1 38 99.7 58 96.8 77 105.1 50
68 Washington 5-7 0.494 3-9 201.7 99.6 68 96.3 70 108.1 57 102.1 49 107.6 44 101.9 60
69 Florida Atlantic 5-7 0.448 4-8 199.1 114.5 40 125.6 15 99.7 71 84.6 110 89.5 90 77.0 119
70 Buffalo 5-7 0.504 5-7 198.9 106.7 52 109.1 43 104.3 61 92.3 91 88.1 96 96.6 72
71 Louisiana Tech 4-8 0.531 5-7 198.4 86.9 101 75.1 111 100.5 70 111.5 35 124.8 19 100.5 65
72 Colorado State 3-9 0.421 6-6 198.4 118.0 23 137.3 9 103.9 62 80.4 112 72.5 115 91.9 84
73 Iowa State 7-6 0.485 3-10 198.4 111.0 42 120.7 21 102.5 63 87.4 98 84.7 102 91.2 87
74 N.C. State 5-7 0.493 3-9 197.8 99.0 70 83.5 98 117.5 34 98.8 60 104.0 55 96.5 73
75 Toledo 5-7 0.446 6-6 197.2 99.7 75 100.6 62 97.5 79 97.5 75 107.9 43 85.9 102
76 SMU 8-5 0.514 6-7 197.1 92.2 91 90.1 86 92.2 92 104.9 50 113.1 33 94.3 76
77 Central Florida 8-5 0.536 7-6 195.9 92.2 98 88.7 92 89.6 101 103.7 61 102.4 58 98.1 68
78 UTEP 4-8 0.471 5-7 195.7 104.5 62 109.8 40 98.0 77 91.2 93 93.0 83 88.3 92
79 Kansas State 6-6 0.496 6-6 195.1 92.1 92 89.6 89 91.7 95 103.1 53 116.6 27 86.3 101
80 Syracuse 4-8 0.431 5-7 193.0 92.5 85 87.5 94 98.2 76 100.5 57 105.5 52 96.5 74
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
81 Idaho 7-6 0.459 7-6 192.9 114.4 39 124.5 18 101.4 66 78.6 118 69.3 118 85.8 103
82 Tulsa 5-7 0.516 7-5 191.8 90.8 102 83.9 97 91.6 96 101.0 73 106.2 50 89.1 89
83 Duke 5-7 0.470 3-9 191.7 97.9 79 96.0 72 98.9 74 93.8 87 98.6 68 88.3 92
84 Baylor 4-8 0.432 6-6 191.7 97.6 67 94.3 75 110.6 53 94.1 70 93.4 81 104.2 53
85 Colorado 3-9 0.426 4-8 191.3 92.8 83 88.8 91 101.6 65 98.5 56 92.0 85 110.1 44
86 Hawaii 6-7 0.436 4-9 190.7 98.8 78 109.3 42 86.9 104 91.9 92 95.8 78 86.9 99
87 Maryland 2-10 0.406 4-8 190.2 87.1 95 83.4 99 96.5 80 103.2 44 111.7 35 101.5 63
88 Utah State 4-8 0.461 4-8 189.8 107.4 59 118.8 22 91.0 97 82.5 114 79.5 109 81.7 111
89 Northern Illinois 7-6 0.570 7-6 189.8 92.6 99 79.6 104 97.5 78 97.2 88 92.8 84 93.1 80
90 UAB 5-7 0.462 6-6 189.5 90.8 93 81.7 102 99.4 72 98.7 71 104.7 53 92.1 83
91 Wyoming 7-6 0.399 0-13 188.3 102.6 54 117.1 25 95.9 81 85.8 95 76.7 113 101.3 64
92 Ohio 9-5 0.538 6-8 186.9 99.8 76 106.9 47 90.6 98 87.1 99 69.1 119 103.3 57
93 Southern Miss 7-6 0.560 6-7 186.7 99.0 82 96.2 71 95.6 82 87.7 106 82.0 107 87.8 95
94 Minnesota 6-7 0.467 6-7 186.4 95.2 81 98.3 65 95.5 83 91.3 89 81.5 108 104.4 52
95 UL-Monroe 6-6 0.483 6-6 185.9 89.2 100 87.5 93 88.2 103 96.7 81 103.4 56 87.1 98
96 Vanderbilt 2-10 0.411 2-10 185.5 92.3 84 96.6 68 92.0 94 93.2 79 100.5 64 90.0 88
97 Illinois 3-9 0.461 4-8 185.3 86.0 103 76.1 109 99.1 73 99.3 55 107.9 42 94.3 75
98 North Texas 2-10 0.428 5-7 184.8 98.3 80 104.1 56 89.8 100 86.4 104 89.9 89 80.4 113
99 Virginia 3-9 0.423 5-7 184.6 86.1 104 75.7 110 98.3 75 98.5 67 90.9 86 108.1 46
100 Arkansas State 4-8 0.493 4-8 182.6 79.9 112 71.5 117 84.0 106 102.7 63 117.9 26 82.1 109
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
101 San Diego State 4-8 0.433 3-9 180.6 84.1 107 77.5 107 92.3 91 96.5 74 110.6 37 84.2 106
102 Western Michigan 5-7 0.473 2-10 179.8 92.9 96 98.4 64 80.8 113 86.9 109 87.7 97 80.0 115
103 Memphis 2-10 0.385 3-9 179.7 99.1 77 113.5 34 83.8 107 80.7 115 78.7 111 81.9 110
104 Indiana 4-8 0.443 6-6 178.8 93.9 87 91.4 81 94.1 87 85.0 108 78.9 110 89.0 90
105 UL-Lafayette 6-6 0.422 1-11 178.7 89.9 94 94.1 77 86.9 104 88.8 94 98.1 69 80.7 112
106 Louisville 4-8 0.408 4-8 177.2 90.7 88 90.0 87 95.3 84 86.4 96 85.0 101 91.6 86
107 Kent State 5-7 0.461 3-9 173.7 87.1 105 94.2 76 78.0 115 86.6 101 85.9 100 85.4 104
108 Army 4-8 0.383 1-11 171.3 75.0 117 71.6 116 74.7 117 96.3 84 99.6 65 88.2 94
109 Miami (Ohio) 1-11 0.312 5-7 171.2 79.5 110 72.5 113 93.0 89 91.7 77 98.0 70 92.9 82
110 Akron 3-9 0.400 4-8 170.2 85.2 106 89.9 88 81.2 110 85.0 103 86.9 98 83.8 107
111 New Mexico 1-11 0.313 3-9 169.3 86.6 97 90.5 85 88.5 102 82.7 102 82.3 105 88.6 91
112 Ball State 2-10 0.405 4-8 164.4 84.1 109 86.2 95 80.9 111 80.3 117 75.6 114 83.8 107
113 San Jose State 2-10 0.285 1-11 164.3 73.4 114 72.3 114 78.8 114 90.9 86 100.5 63 86.6 100
114 Florida International 3-9 0.393 0-12 160.0 74.3 116 66.7 118 80.9 111 85.7 105 82.8 104 87.5 97
115 Tulane 3-9 0.304 2-10 159.6 76.2 113 72.2 115 82.8 108 83.4 107 89.5 91 80.3 114
116 Western Kentucky 0-12 0.340 0-12 158.6 82.6 111 80.8 103 81.5 109 76.1 120 72.3 116 77.2 118
117 Rice 2-10 0.298 0-12 156.1 68.1 118 61.7 119 74.8 116 87.9 97 96.9 75 79.3 116
118 Eastern Michigan 1-11 0.320 1-11 152.9 74.7 115 77.0 108 71.1 119 78.2 119 82.1 106 72.8 120
119 New Mexico State 4-9 0.292 0-13 149.5 67.2 119 74.7 112 60.3 120 82.3 111 86.8 99 78.5 117
120 Washington State 1-11 0.237 0-12 143.3 55.3 120 42.1 120 74.6 118 88.0 90 100.7 62 85.1 105