Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2009 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/7/10

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): A simple schedule measure based on average S&P+ ratings and normal distributions.
  • Weighted S&P+ rating: This is an attempt to measure how a team was playing at the end of a given season, with extra weight given to the most recent games. It is limited in power by small sample sizes, but it is useful in determining which teams finished strong and which derived most of their good (or bad) final ratings from early-season play.
Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Florida13-112.3 (-0.7) 98.7% +25.0 1 36.4 6 11.3 5 0.64 38 +21.6 2
Alabama14-012.7 (-1.3) 98.4% +24.0 2 34.1 14 10.1 2 0.96 19 +13.1 12
Texas13-111.1 (-1.9) 98.1% +23.2 3 33.9 15 10.7 3 1.48 5 +18.7 4
Virginia Tech10-311.0 (1.0) 97.7% +22.5 4 35.2 10 12.7 7 1.14 12 +17.6 5
TCU12-111.9 (-0.1) 96.0% +19.7 5 34.3 13 14.6 10 -0.32 76 +24.6 1
Oklahoma8-59.2 (1.2) 95.4% +19.0 6 29.9 36 10.9 4 1.26 9 +13.2 11
Nebraska10-410.4 (0.4) 94.9% +18.3 7 27.3 57 8.9 1 1.05 16 +7.1 33
Oregon10-39.7 (-0.3) 94.4% +17.8 8 34.7 12 16.9 15 1.20 11 +18.9 3
Ohio State11-29.7 (-1.3) 93.2% +16.7 9 29.7 38 13.0 8 0.79 28 +12.7 13
Wisconsin9-38.9 (-0.1) 92.9% +16.5 10 35.4 8 19.0 19 1.20 10 +11.3 19
Iowa11-210.6 (-0.4) 91.9% +15.7 11 27.6 53 11.9 6 1.10 14 +9.5 23
LSU9-48.2 (-0.8) 91.7% +15.5 12 29.8 37 14.3 9 1.67 4 +15.1 9
Penn State11-210.5 (-0.5) 91.6% +15.5 13 31.4 28 15.9 12 -0.45 80 +15.2 8
Tennessee7-68.1 (1.1) 91.2% +15.2 14 31.7 27 16.5 13 1.29 8 +7.8 28
Miami9-49.7 (0.7) 90.0% +14.4 15 33.0 24 18.6 18 0.83 25 +10.0 22
Pittsburgh10-310.6 (0.6) 88.6% +13.5 16 33.7 19 20.2 21 -0.05 61 +12.7 15
Cincinnati12-111.0 (-1.0) 87.7% +13.0 17 39.2 1 26.1 56 -0.19 69 +13.3 10
South Carolina7-66.9 (-0.1) 87.4% +12.9 18 27.8 51 14.9 11 1.87 2 +5.3 40
Texas Tech9-410.4 (1.4) 87.1% +12.7 19 33.8 17 21.1 27 -0.13 66 +5.7 38
Arkansas8-58.4 (0.4) 87.0% +12.7 20 35.5 7 22.8 38 0.96 20 +10.5 21
Clemson9-510.1 (1.1) 86.8% +12.5 21 29.4 41 16.9 14 0.11 56 +4.0 46
Boise State14-012.4 (-1.6) 86.5% +12.4 22 35.3 9 22.9 40 -1.06 102 +17.2 6
Michigan State6-77.5 (1.5) 83.7% +11.0 23 33.8 18 22.8 37 1.08 15 +1.7 55
BYU11-29.4 (-1.6) 82.9% +10.7 24 33.3 20 22.6 36 -0.19 68 +17.2 7
Auburn8-57.3 (-0.7) 79.0% +9.1 25 33.2 22 24.2 48 0.88 21 +7.0 34
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Oklahoma State9-48.1 (-0.9) 78.8% +9.0 26 28.3 48 19.3 20 0.48 46 +3.8 47
Notre Dame6-66.7 (0.7) 78.1% +8.7 27 36.5 4 27.8 70 0.88 22 +0.3 64
West Virginia9-48.7 (-0.3) 77.5% +8.5 28 28.9 46 20.4 24 0.35 49 +2.1 54
Georgia Tech11-38.1 (-2.9) 77.4% +8.5 29 33.9 16 25.4 54 0.71 31 +4.4 45
Stanford8-59.1 (1.1) 75.8% +7.9 30 37.0 3 29.2 82 0.03 59 +12.6 16
Georgia8-57.8 (-0.2) 75.4% +7.7 31 30.9 32 23.1 42 0.65 37 +4.7 42
Utah10-39.8 (-0.2) 73.8% +7.1 32 28.9 45 21.8 31 -0.53 85 +10.9 20
Mississippi State5-75.4 (0.4) 73.7% +7.1 33 28.3 49 21.2 28 1.76 3 +8.3 26
USC9-47.9 (-1.1) 72.7% +6.8 34 29.2 44 22.4 34 0.23 53 +3.5 48
Virginia3-94.1 (1.1) 72.6% +6.8 35 23.8 84 17.0 16 2.20 1 -6.5 94
Connecticut8-58.3 (0.3) 72.0% +6.5 36 31.1 31 24.5 50 0.21 54 +5.2 41
Arizona8-57.2 (-0.8) 71.1% +6.3 37 27.2 58 21.0 26 0.49 45 -2.3 73
East Carolina9-58.7 (-0.3) 71.0% +6.2 38 28.0 50 21.8 30 0.52 43 +11.9 18
Texas A&M6-77.0 (1.0) 70.9% +6.2 39 32.7 25 26.6 61 0.74 30 +7.2 32
Ole Miss9-49.3 (0.3) 70.7% +6.1 40 26.4 63 20.3 23 -0.56 88 +12.2 17
Florida State7-67.2 (0.2) 70.5% +6.0 41 34.9 11 28.9 80 1.11 13 +4.7 43
Purdue5-76.6 (1.6) 70.2% +6.0 42 29.3 42 23.4 45 0.99 18 -2.1 72
Troy9-49.6 (0.6) 70.1% +5.9 43 33.2 21 27.3 67 -0.10 64 +7.9 27
Oregon State8-57.8 (-0.2) 66.7% +4.8 44 32.1 26 27.3 65 -0.11 65 +5.9 36
Houston10-48.4 (-1.6) 64.5% +4.2 45 36.4 5 32.2 98 -0.76 90 +5.8 37
Missouri8-57.2 (-0.8) 63.9% +4.0 46 30.1 33 26.1 55 0.20 55 -4.8 86
South Florida7-56.4 (-0.6) 63.3% +3.8 47 26.3 68 22.5 35 0.38 48 -1.5 70
Boston College8-57.1 (-0.9) 62.1% +3.5 48 23.7 85 20.2 22 -0.07 62 -0.1 65
Kansas5-75.6 (0.6) 62.1% +3.4 49 30.0 34 26.6 62 0.32 50 -3.6 82
Kentucky7-66.3 (-0.7) 61.4% +3.3 50 26.3 65 23.1 41 0.67 35 -2.3 74
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Nevada8-58.4 (0.4) 61.0% +3.1 51 37.4 2 34.3 107 -0.60 89 +5.5 39
Michigan5-75.1 (0.1) 60.4% +2.9 52 29.2 43 26.3 59 0.06 58 -0.4 67
Washington5-74.7 (-0.3) 60.2% +2.9 53 29.7 39 26.8 64 0.54 41 +0.3 63
North Carolina8-57.5 (-0.5) 59.5% +2.7 54 20.4 102 17.6 17 -0.20 71 +9.4 24
Baylor4-84.2 (0.2) 59.5% +2.7 55 26.8 62 24.1 47 1.44 6 -5.5 90
Wake Forest4-75.7 (1.7) 59.1% +2.6 56 31.1 30 28.5 78 0.55 40 +2.5 51
UCLA7-65.5 (-1.5) 56.7% +1.9 57 23.6 86 21.7 29 0.50 44 -4.7 85
Central Michigan12-210.3 (-1.7) 56.1% +1.7 58 27.1 60 25.4 53 -1.70 113 +8.9 25
Air Force8-58.4 (0.4) 56.0% +1.7 59 22.6 89 20.9 25 -0.86 91 +7.8 29
Central Florida8-57.6 (-0.4) 52.7% +0.7 60 23.9 83 23.1 43 -0.54 86 +7.7 31
Navy10-47.9 (-2.1) 52.1% +0.6 61 26.8 61 26.2 58 -0.55 87 +0.9 59
Syracuse4-84.5 (0.5) 51.1% +0.3 62 24.9 77 24.6 51 0.84 24 +0.8 61
Minnesota6-75.2 (-0.8) 50.3% +0.1 63 22.4 92 22.3 33 0.82 26 -6.7 95
Middle Tennessee10-39.1 (-0.9) 48.7% -0.4 64 24.0 81 24.3 49 -1.37 109 +12.7 14
Colorado3-93.8 (0.8) 46.5% -1.0 65 21.9 94 22.9 39 0.78 29 -8.8 101
Southern Miss7-68.5 (1.5) 45.1% -1.4 66 27.6 54 29.0 81 -1.60 111 +7.8 30
Indiana4-85.2 (1.2) 44.6% -1.5 67 26.3 67 27.8 71 0.30 51 +2.4 53
Arizona State4-86.9 (2.9) 44.5% -1.5 68 20.3 103 21.9 32 -0.88 92 +1.1 58
California8-56.6 (-1.4) 44.5% -1.6 69 27.1 59 28.7 79 -0.53 84 -3.0 79
Marshall7-66.2 (-0.8) 42.8% -2.0 70 24.7 78 26.7 63 0.02 60 +4.5 44
Bowling Green7-66.7 (-0.3) 42.6% -2.1 71 27.4 55 29.5 85 -0.35 77 +0.6 62
Louisiana Tech4-86.0 (2.0) 40.2% -2.8 72 25.5 75 28.3 75 -1.04 101 +1.1 57
Fresno State8-57.2 (-0.8) 39.9% -2.9 73 31.2 29 34.0 106 -1.08 103 -7.6 96
Louisville4-83.6 (-0.4) 39.8% -2.9 74 24.4 79 27.3 66 0.68 33 -8.4 98
Ohio9-56.6 (-2.4) 39.7% -2.9 75 20.4 101 23.4 44 -0.48 82 -0.7 68
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Rutgers9-48.7 (-0.3) 39.0% -3.1 76 20.4 100 23.6 46 -1.93 117 +6.8 35
Tulsa5-76.4 (1.4) 38.4% -3.3 77 26.0 71 29.3 83 -1.31 108 -2.4 75
Temple9-49.1 (0.1) 38.1% -3.4 78 22.8 88 26.2 57 -1.58 110 +2.4 52
Iowa State7-65.9 (-1.1) 36.6% -3.8 79 24.4 80 28.2 74 -0.30 75 -9.7 106
Illinois3-94.1 (1.1) 36.6% -3.9 80 26.0 70 29.9 88 0.39 47 -3.9 83
UAB5-74.7 (-0.3) 36.5% -3.9 81 30.0 35 33.9 105 -0.22 72 +3.4 49
Colorado State3-95.1 (2.1) 36.3% -3.9 82 27.3 56 31.2 94 0.08 57 -18.2 118
Buffalo5-75.0 (0.0) 32.9% -5.0 83 23.1 87 28.1 73 -0.93 94 +1.4 56
N.C. State4-72.8 (-1.2) 31.8% -5.3 84 26.3 64 31.7 96 0.25 52 -2.6 78
Idaho7-65.7 (-1.3) 31.3% -5.5 85 33.1 23 38.6 119 -0.46 81 -2.4 76
Northern Illinois7-68.0 (1.0) 31.3% -5.5 86 23.9 82 29.4 84 -1.96 118 -5.4 89
Maryland2-102.8 (0.8) 30.8% -5.6 87 22.1 93 27.7 69 0.81 27 -8.9 103
Utah State4-84.8 (0.8) 30.2% -5.8 88 29.6 40 35.4 112 -0.39 78 -5.6 91
Kansas State6-65.9 (-0.1) 30.1% -5.8 89 21.8 95 27.6 68 -0.99 98 -4.1 84
UNLV5-75.1 (0.1) 29.7% -6.0 90 27.7 52 33.7 104 -0.07 63 -3.3 80
Memphis2-103.0 (1.0) 29.6% -6.0 91 25.7 72 31.7 97 0.66 36 -12.0 111
Northwestern8-55.6 (-2.4) 27.1% -6.9 92 22.6 90 29.5 86 -1.00 100 +3.2 50
SMU8-57.9 (-0.1) 26.8% -6.9 93 25.5 74 32.5 100 -1.70 112 +0.9 60
Wyoming7-63.8 (-3.2) 25.5% -7.4 94 19.1 111 26.5 60 0.56 39 -8.9 102
UL-Monroe6-65.8 (-0.2) 22.5% -8.5 95 21.7 96 30.2 89 -1.90 116 -0.8 69
Florida International3-92.8 (-0.2) 22.1% -8.6 96 22.6 91 31.2 93 0.68 34 -8.6 99
Hawaii5-75.6 (0.6) 21.9% -8.7 97 26.1 69 34.8 109 -0.97 97 -0.1 66
North Texas2-105.4 (3.4) 20.8% -9.2 98 26.3 66 35.5 113 -0.93 95 -15.1 115
Vanderbilt2-102.5 (0.5) 20.1% -9.4 99 15.8 116 25.2 52 -0.30 74 -8.8 100
UTEP4-85.5 (1.5) 19.7% -9.6 100 25.7 73 35.2 111 -1.13 104 -5.4 88
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Florida Atlantic5-75.3 (0.3) 18.4% -10.1 101 28.8 47 38.9 120 -0.91 93 -2.4 77
Miami (Ohio)1-112.0 (1.0) 17.9% -10.3 102 19.5 108 29.8 87 0.99 17 -6.1 93
New Mexico1-111.7 (0.7) 16.7% -10.8 103 19.4 109 30.3 90 0.86 23 -5.6 92
Duke5-75.0 (0.0) 16.6% -10.9 104 20.1 105 31.0 92 -1.23 107 -10.0 107
Toledo5-74.6 (-0.4) 15.9% -11.2 105 25.1 76 36.3 117 -0.97 96 -9.3 104
Akron3-93.6 (0.6) 15.2% -11.5 106 17.0 115 28.5 77 -0.45 79 -11.2 108
San Jose State2-101.7 (-0.3) 14.0% -12.1 107 20.9 97 33.0 102 0.68 32 -17.3 117
San Diego State4-84.8 (0.8) 13.5% -12.4 108 19.9 106 32.3 99 -1.14 105 -11.3 109
Arkansas State4-84.7 (0.7) 12.9% -12.7 109 17.9 113 30.6 91 -1.82 114 -9.3 105
Western Michigan5-75.6 (0.6) 12.8% -12.8 110 20.6 99 33.3 103 -1.89 115 -8.0 97
Ball State2-102.5 (0.5) 10.9% -13.9 111 17.6 114 31.4 95 -0.53 83 -11.4 110
UL-Lafayette6-64.3 (-1.7) 10.4% -14.1 112 20.3 104 34.4 108 -1.18 106 -3.6 81
Kent State5-75.6 (0.6) 10.0% -14.4 113 13.6 118 28.0 72 -2.34 120 -2.1 71
Tulane3-93.1 (0.1) 7.9% -15.9 114 19.0 112 34.8 110 -0.23 73 -13.9 114
Eastern Michigan1-112.0 (1.0) 7.3% -16.3 115 19.4 110 35.7 114 -0.20 70 -20.0 119
Rice2-101.4 (-0.6) 7.0% -16.5 116 19.7 107 36.2 115 0.53 42 -13.0 113
Western Kentucky0-111.0 (1.0) 6.1% -17.4 117 20.7 98 38.0 118 -0.14 67 -12.9 112
Army4-84.0 (0.0) 5.9% -17.5 118 11.0 120 28.5 76 -2.27 119 -5.0 87
Washington State1-110.1 (-0.9) 3.4% -20.5 119 15.7 117 36.3 116 1.33 7 -27.5 120
New Mexico State4-92.3 (-1.7) 3.0% -21.1 120 11.4 119 32.5 101 -0.99 99 -15.6 116