Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2010 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/10/11

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): A simple schedule measure based on average S&P+ ratings and normal distributions.
  • Weighted S&P+ rating: This is an attempt to measure how a team was playing at the end of a given season, with extra weight given to the most recent games. It is limited in power by small sample sizes, but it is useful in determining which teams finished strong and which derived most of their good (or bad) final ratings from early-season play.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Boise State 12-1 12.5 (0.5) 98.6% +26.2 1 39.9 6 13.7 2 -0.47 81 +26.6 1
Auburn 14-0 10.9 (-3.1) 97.8% +23.9 2 46.8 1 22.9 36 1.69 5 +18.2 6
Ohio State 12-1 11.6 (-0.4) 97.4% +23.0 3 36.7 12 13.7 1 0.21 52 +16.3 9
Alabama 10-3 11.0 (1.0) 97.3% +22.9 4 41.4 2 18.5 14 0.44 37 +20.3 4
Oklahoma 12-2 10.9 (-1.1) 96.1% +20.9 5 38.2 9 17.4 7 1.09 15 +17.9 7
Stanford 12-1 11.1 (-0.9) 95.6% +20.2 6 40.6 3 20.3 23 -0.29 76 +22.1 2
Notre Dame 8-5 9.0 (1.0) 95.6% +20.1 7 35.6 16 15.4 4 1.96 2 +11.9 18
South Carolina 9-5 9.9 (0.9) 95.5% +20.0 8 38.3 8 18.2 11 1.67 6 +12.9 14
Arkansas 10-3 9.8 (-0.2) 95.3% +19.8 9 40.1 4 20.3 24 1.10 14 +14.8 10
TCU 13-0 12.1 (-0.9) 94.0% +18.4 10 39.3 7 20.9 30 -1.04 101 +18.9 5
Florida State 10-4 10.3 (0.3) 92.2% +16.8 11 34.2 21 17.4 8 0.69 27 +13.4 12
Oklahoma State 11-2 11.2 (0.2) 92.1% +16.7 12 40.0 5 23.3 38 0.24 47 +10.1 22
Oregon State 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 91.5% +16.2 13 35.2 20 19.0 17 2.71 1 +3.7 47
Missouri 10-3 9.6 (-0.4) 90.6% +15.5 14 34.2 22 18.7 15 0.28 44 +6.9 36
LSU 11-2 9.7 (-1.3) 89.8% +15.0 15 30.5 42 15.4 3 0.82 20 +17.4 8
Oregon 12-1 11.1 (-0.9) 89.2% +14.7 16 35.5 18 20.8 29 -0.76 94 +12.2 17
Miami 7-6 7.8 (0.8) 87.5% +13.6 17 31.1 35 17.5 9 1.09 16 +8.1 28
Virginia Tech 11-3 10.7 (-0.3) 87.2% +13.4 18 36.2 13 22.8 35 0.54 34 +14.2 11
Wisconsin 11-2 10.7 (-0.3) 86.9% +13.3 19 38.2 10 24.9 48 -0.67 88 +11.5 19
Pittsburgh 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 85.9% +12.7 20 31.0 37 18.3 12 0.74 24 +7.6 32
Iowa 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 85.8% +12.7 21 33.4 24 20.7 27 0.30 43 +3.9 45
Texas A&M 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 84.7% +12.1 22 30.9 39 18.8 16 1.31 9 +7.9 29
USC 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 81.7% +10.7 23 35.8 14 25.1 50 0.80 21 -0.2 68
Arizona 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 81.4% +10.6 24 31.4 34 20.8 28 0.73 25 +3.5 48
Clemson 5-7 6.5 (1.5) 81.4% +10.5 25 26.2 71 15.7 6 1.13 13 +2.6 50
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Mississippi State 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 81.2% +10.5 26 32.4 27 22.0 32 0.64 28 +8.4 27
Utah 10-3 8.7 (-1.3) 81.2% +10.5 27 30.6 41 20.1 20 0.01 61 +12.4 16
Florida 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 81.0% +10.4 28 28.0 58 17.6 10 1.07 17 -2.0 77
Michigan State 11-2 9.8 (-1.2) 80.1% +10.0 29 33.2 25 23.2 37 0.26 46 -3.7 85
Georgia 6-7 7.6 (1.6) 78.2% +9.2 30 33.1 26 23.9 44 0.23 49 +9.1 25
West Virginia 9-4 9.6 (0.6) 78.0% +9.1 31 24.8 81 15.7 5 -0.70 89 +10.1 21
Nebraska 10-4 9.7 (-0.3) 77.2% +8.8 32 28.6 52 19.8 18 -0.57 87 +7.6 33
Illinois 7-6 7.9 (0.9) 76.8% +8.6 33 29.7 45 21.1 31 0.51 36 -1.7 74
N.C. State 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 75.1% +8.0 34 28.6 54 20.6 26 0.31 42 +6.7 37
Maryland 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 73.6% +7.5 35 27.5 61 20.0 19 -0.16 69 +8.7 26
Nevada 13-1 11.9 (-1.1) 72.7% +7.1 36 35.3 19 28.1 65 -1.66 114 +13.2 13
Washington 7-6 5.7 (-1.3) 70.3% +6.3 37 31.9 30 25.6 52 1.83 3 -0.8 71
Penn State 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 69.6% +6.1 38 29.7 46 23.7 40 0.98 19 -0.7 70
Central Florida 11-3 11.4 (0.4) 69.0% +5.8 39 29.5 49 23.7 41 -1.56 112 +12.8 15
Michigan 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 68.8% +5.8 40 36.9 11 31.1 88 0.72 26 +1.5 56
California 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 66.3% +5.0 41 25.1 77 20.1 21 0.59 30 +2.3 52
Hawaii 10-4 9.8 (-0.2) 64.6% +4.4 42 34.1 23 29.7 78 -1.24 107 +7.3 35
Louisville 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 62.0% +3.6 43 26.9 66 23.3 39 -0.57 86 +7.5 34
Texas 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 61.5% +3.4 44 23.8 86 20.3 22 0.32 41 -6.9 98
Northern Illinois 11-3 11.4 (0.4) 61.4% +3.4 45 30.8 40 27.4 60 -2.11 119 +21.2 3
San Diego State 9-4 10.5 (1.5) 61.0% +3.3 46 31.6 33 28.3 67 -1.89 116 +6.6 39
BYU 7-6 6.8 (-0.2) 60.8% +3.2 47 25.2 76 22.0 33 -0.25 73 +6.7 38
SMU 7-7 7.8 (0.8) 60.8% +3.2 48 30.2 43 27.0 58 0.06 57 -2.1 78
Boston College 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 59.8% +2.9 49 21.4 98 18.4 13 0.54 33 +5.3 43
North Carolina 8-5 6.7 (-1.3) 59.0% +2.7 50 27.8 59 25.1 49 0.22 51 -0.8 72
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Arizona State 6-6 6.4 (0.4) 58.8% +2.6 51 28.9 51 26.3 55 -0.26 74 -0.5 69
Baylor 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 58.7% +2.6 52 31.9 29 29.3 75 -0.19 71 +1.5 57
Air Force 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 58.4% +2.5 53 29.7 44 27.3 59 -0.73 91 -3.2 82
Tulsa 9-3 7.8 (-1.2) 58.2% +2.4 54 35.7 15 33.3 99 -0.51 82 +10.2 20
Kansas State 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 58.1% +2.4 55 32.1 28 29.7 79 -0.10 65 -1.9 76
Ole Miss 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 57.9% +2.3 56 31.8 32 29.4 76 0.36 39 +3.8 46
South Florida 8-5 6.8 (-1.2) 55.5% +1.6 57 22.1 90 20.5 25 -0.21 72 +0.1 63
Tennessee 6-7 6.2 (0.2) 55.0% +1.5 58 27.4 62 26.0 54 0.20 53 +2.0 55
Navy 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 55.0% +1.5 59 31.8 31 30.3 83 -0.40 79 +7.7 31
Texas Tech 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 54.3% +1.2 60 31.0 38 29.8 80 -0.11 66 -1.9 75
UCLA 4-8 4.2 (0.2) 53.7% +1.1 61 26.7 69 25.6 53 1.27 10 -11.0 109
Toledo 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 53.7% +1.1 62 25.8 75 24.7 47 0.04 58 +0.9 59
East Carolina 6-7 5.7 (-0.3) 53.6% +1.1 63 35.5 17 34.5 105 0.58 31 -0.2 67
Kentucky 6-7 6.3 (0.3) 53.0% +0.9 64 31.1 36 30.2 81 -0.29 77 -8.5 99
Cincinnati 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 52.6% +0.7 65 29.6 47 28.9 72 0.52 35 -11.2 110
Southern Miss 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 51.3% +0.4 66 28.3 57 27.9 63 -1.30 109 +9.4 24
Iowa State 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 50.2% +0.0 67 24.4 84 24.3 45 1.23 11 -6.4 95
Colorado 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 49.6% -0.1 68 27.3 63 27.4 61 0.76 23 -4.4 86
Fresno State 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 47.8% -0.7 69 27.2 64 27.9 64 -0.09 64 +7.9 30
Connecticut 8-5 5.7 (-2.3) 47.5% -0.8 70 21.8 94 22.6 34 -0.13 67 +3.4 49
Duke 2-9 3.7 (1.7) 45.6% -1.3 71 27.5 60 28.9 71 1.00 18 -0.9 73
Northwestern 7-6 5.9 (-1.1) 45.5% -1.4 72 29.3 50 30.6 86 0.01 60 -5.9 92
Western Michigan 6-6 7.2 (1.2) 42.8% -2.2 73 26.1 72 28.3 66 -1.69 115 +10.1 23
Louisiana Tech 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 41.4% -2.6 74 26.7 68 29.3 74 -0.15 68 +2.1 53
Minnesota 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 41.0% -2.7 75 28.6 53 31.3 91 1.50 7 -2.8 80
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Temple 8-4 7.1 (-0.9) 40.8% -2.8 76 21.8 95 24.6 46 -1.53 110 +6.4 40
Florida International 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 38.1% -3.6 77 24.8 79 28.4 68 -0.96 99 -0.2 66
Troy 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 36.8% -4.0 78 28.5 55 32.5 97 -1.10 103 +0.9 60
Army 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 35.9% -4.3 79 24.5 82 28.8 70 -0.95 98 -5.2 91
Georgia Tech 6-7 5.8 (-0.2) 35.8% -4.3 80 26.0 74 30.3 82 -0.53 83 -2.9 81
UAB 4-8 5.7 (1.7) 34.9% -4.6 81 26.0 73 30.7 87 -0.55 85 -4.7 89
Wake Forest 2-9 2.7 (0.7) 34.8% -4.7 82 24.9 78 29.5 77 1.42 8 -13.4 112
Syracuse 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 34.3% -4.8 83 18.9 107 23.7 42 -1.19 105 -3.2 83
Purdue 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 33.2% -5.2 84 20.0 105 25.2 51 0.27 45 -10.3 105
Houston 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 32.8% -5.3 85 29.6 48 34.9 107 -1.05 102 +1.4 58
Marshall 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 31.5% -5.7 86 20.8 100 26.5 57 0.14 55 -11.3 111
Rutgers 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 30.5% -6.1 87 20.4 103 26.5 56 0.03 59 -10.9 108
Arkansas State 4-8 5.6 (1.6) 30.0% -6.2 88 26.4 70 32.6 98 -0.83 96 +5.9 42
Washington State 2-10 1.8 (-0.2) 27.3% -7.2 89 26.9 65 34.1 103 1.22 12 -6.3 94
Ohio 7-5 7.2 (0.2) 27.1% -7.3 90 21.4 97 28.7 69 -1.57 113 +2.1 54
Rice 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 25.9% -7.7 91 28.4 56 36.1 114 -0.01 62 +0.1 64
Utah State 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 25.7% -7.7 92 23.5 87 31.3 90 0.63 29 -10.1 103
Miami (Ohio) 10-4 7.8 (-2.2) 23.8% -8.5 93 20.5 102 28.9 73 -1.13 104 +6.2 41
Kent State 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 23.6% -8.5 94 15.3 116 23.8 43 -1.53 111 +4.7 44
Idaho 6-7 6.4 (0.4) 23.5% -8.6 95 21.8 96 30.4 84 -0.96 100 -5.0 90
Indiana 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 23.4% -8.6 96 26.9 67 35.5 111 -0.46 80 -9.9 101
Virginia 4-8 5.0 (1.0) 23.2% -8.7 97 24.8 80 33.5 100 -0.74 92 -4.6 88
Vanderbilt 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 22.6% -8.9 98 18.9 108 27.9 62 0.43 38 -16.2 117
Central Michigan 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 21.8% -9.3 99 21.9 93 31.1 89 -0.91 97 +0.2 62
Wyoming 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 21.4% -9.4 100 22.0 91 31.5 93 0.22 50 -6.5 96
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
UNLV 2-11 2.0 (0.0) 17.7% -11.0 101 24.4 83 35.4 110 1.77 4 0.0 65
San Jose State 1-12 3.9 (2.9) 17.5% -11.1 102 22.5 88 33.6 101 0.55 32 -14.2 115
UL-Lafayette 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 12.4% -13.7 103 21.9 92 35.6 112 -0.34 78 -16.2 118
Florida Atlantic 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 12.3% -13.8 104 18.3 110 32.1 95 -0.83 95 -10.1 104
North Texas 3-9 4.6 (1.6) 12.1% -13.9 105 21.1 99 35.0 109 -1.21 106 +0.2 61
Tulane 4-8 2.8 (-1.2) 11.9% -14.0 106 22.2 89 36.2 115 -0.55 84 -9.0 100
Colorado State 3-9 2.5 (-0.5) 11.0% -14.5 107 20.1 104 34.6 106 0.33 40 -14.1 114
UL-Monroe 5-7 4.0 (-1.0) 10.5% -14.9 108 16.9 112 31.8 94 -0.74 93 -6.2 93
Eastern Michigan 2-10 2.6 (0.6) 10.0% -15.2 109 24.0 85 39.2 119 0.15 54 -10.0 102
Bowling Green 2-10 2.4 (0.4) 9.7% -15.4 110 16.9 113 32.3 96 -0.03 63 -10.6 107
Western Kentucky 2-10 2.9 (0.9) 8.8% -16.1 111 18.9 109 34.9 108 -0.72 90 -4.5 87
Akron 1-10 1.7 (0.7) 8.2% -16.5 112 14.9 118 31.4 92 0.23 48 -6.7 97
UTEP 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 8.0% -16.7 113 20.5 101 37.2 117 -2.00 117 -3.6 84
Memphis 1-11 0.9 (-0.1) 8.0% -16.7 114 19.7 106 36.3 116 0.77 22 -15.3 116
Middle Tennessee 6-7 6.9 (0.9) 6.1% -18.4 115 17.3 111 35.6 113 -3.15 120 +2.3 51
Kansas 3-9 2.0 (-1.0) 5.2% -19.3 116 15.0 117 34.3 104 -0.28 75 -13.8 113
Ball State 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 4.8% -19.8 117 14.1 119 33.8 102 -2.10 118 -2.8 79
Buffalo 2-10 2.4 (0.4) 4.0% -20.8 118 9.7 120 30.5 85 -1.27 108 -21.4 120
New Mexico 1-11 1.1 (0.1) 3.3% -21.8 119 15.7 114 37.5 118 0.10 56 -10.5 106
New Mexico State 2-10 0.5 (-1.5) 2.3% -23.7 120 15.6 115 39.4 120 -0.17 70 -20.8 119