Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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2010 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/10/11

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
1 Boise State 12-1 0.776 13-0 305.6 130.5 2 134.1 2 147.5 6 175.0 1 144.9 1 232.7 1
2 Alabama 10-3 0.725 13-0 272.9 137.5 4 130.0 3 145.8 7 135.3 5 121.9 6 149.6 5
3 Ohio State 12-1 0.729 13-0 271.8 127.8 12 119.2 13 135.3 12 144.0 2 132.6 3 154.2 3
4 TCU 13-0 0.774 13-0 269.2 127.4 13 119.4 12 133.8 13 141.8 4 137.3 2 144.4 8
5 Stanford 12-1 0.696 11-2 263.9 135.0 3 129.0 4 148.6 3 128.9 6 113.8 24 151.3 4
6 Auburn 14-0 0.631 14-0 259.4 144.3 1 139.1 1 170.2 1 115.1 17 106.9 44 139.7 9
7 Arkansas 10-3 0.609 13-0 250.5 131.9 5 127.0 5 148.4 4 118.6 15 110.2 33 137.5 11
8 Oklahoma 12-2 0.630 10-4 249.7 125.5 6 113.7 20 152.4 2 124.2 8 117.4 14 145.8 7
9 Oregon 12-1 0.714 13-0 248.9 117.3 11 116.8 14 137.8 9 131.6 3 116.4 16 169.2 2
10 Oklahoma State 11-2 0.626 13-0 246.3 125.3 8 122.3 8 138.0 8 121.0 11 112.5 28 138.8 10
11 Wisconsin 11-2 0.669 12-1 244.3 126.0 10 121.4 10 133.6 14 118.3 20 113.6 25 125.8 19
12 South Carolina 9-5 0.572 11-3 242.4 121.3 15 115.4 16 135.5 11 121.0 12 118.4 11 131.9 15
13 Virginia Tech 11-3 0.621 10-4 241.7 127.8 7 116.7 15 148.3 5 114.0 23 108.1 40 128.3 17
14 Missouri 10-3 0.648 11-2 241.3 120.3 17 113.4 22 132.8 16 121.0 16 113.0 27 134.7 12
15 West Virginia 9-4 0.649 12-1 239.1 110.7 48 102.9 52 111.7 46 128.5 14 126.8 4 122.3 23
16 Notre Dame 8-5 0.565 12-1 238.0 114.1 27 106.2 39 125.5 21 123.9 10 121.6 7 130.1 16
17 Texas A&M 9-4 0.588 11-2 236.9 111.7 21 104.6 44 131.5 17 125.2 7 118.0 13 146.6 6
18 Nebraska 10-4 0.640 10-4 234.3 109.6 33 105.0 41 121.1 28 124.7 9 122.9 5 134.2 13
19 Utah 10-3 0.620 9-4 234.0 117.7 19 109.8 29 132.9 15 116.2 19 111.7 29 127.9 18
20 Hawaii 10-4 0.608 10-4 233.6 122.1 14 123.1 7 128.0 19 111.5 32 103.9 53 125.6 20
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
21 LSU 11-2 0.619 11-2 233.3 110.3 35 102.4 53 121.2 27 123.0 13 117.0 15 132.4 14
22 Florida State 10-4 0.614 13-1 232.3 120.2 16 115.3 17 131.0 18 112.1 30 108.4 38 121.2 25
23 Iowa 8-5 0.631 10-2 231.4 115.3 25 109.8 30 124.4 22 116.1 24 115.8 19 120.0 28
24 Miami 7-6 0.559 12-1 231.3 113.0 28 110.5 28 119.7 29 118.3 18 119.6 9 121.3 24
25 Pittsburgh 8-5 0.581 10-3 231.1 118.3 23 114.5 18 121.4 26 112.8 35 111.0 30 113.9 33
26 Nevada 13-1 0.657 12-2 230.4 126.4 9 122.2 9 137.3 10 104.0 48 104.2 51 109.4 44
27 Michigan State 11-2 0.569 8-5 230.2 116.4 22 112.9 23 122.9 25 113.8 29 109.3 37 121.2 26
28 Georgia 6-7 0.592 13-0 227.3 115.4 32 112.8 24 115.0 38 111.8 38 110.4 32 110.3 41
29 N.C. State 9-4 0.599 8-5 227.0 109.4 43 101.8 55 115.7 35 117.6 26 108.4 39 125.5 21
30 Arizona 7-6 0.554 11-2 224.2 110.7 29 106.3 37 123.6 23 113.5 25 116.4 17 119.3 29
31 Central Florida 11-3 0.652 10-4 224.2 109.9 54 105.4 40 104.6 62 114.3 43 115.6 20 102.7 57
32 Northern Illinois 11-3 0.668 12-2 223.0 116.7 31 113.8 19 115.7 35 106.4 52 100.5 60 108.6 46
33 Illinois 7-6 0.581 10-3 222.1 105.9 46 101.1 57 115.2 37 116.3 21 114.8 23 122.8 22
34 San Diego State 9-4 0.612 11-2 219.5 111.9 34 111.9 25 113.1 44 107.6 44 104.1 52 112.1 37
35 Oregon State 5-7 0.476 7-5 219.4 112.8 26 106.5 36 126.8 20 106.6 39 106.3 45 114.3 32
36 Clemson 6-7 0.561 9-4 218.9 103.8 57 98.4 70 110.9 48 115.1 27 118.4 12 113.8 34
37 Arizona State 6-6 0.563 9-3 218.2 109.4 38 103.0 51 117.6 32 108.8 42 110.0 34 109.5 43
38 USC 8-5 0.537 8-5 217.0 112.9 24 110.8 27 123.5 24 104.1 45 102.4 56 113.6 35
39 Florida 8-5 0.584 9-4 217.0 104.2 50 99.5 65 114.1 41 112.8 28 113.6 26 117.7 30
40 Mississippi State 9-4 0.581 9-4 215.3 101.1 56 98.3 71 111.2 47 114.2 22 116.3 18 120.3 27
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
41 North Carolina 8-5 0.521 10-3 214.0 106.3 42 104.2 47 113.5 43 107.6 40 105.5 49 114.8 31
42 Maryland 9-4 0.593 9-4 213.7 103.0 60 100.1 61 108.2 53 110.7 36 111.0 31 112.8 36
43 Michigan 7-6 0.482 10-3 213.6 121.1 18 126.9 6 119.1 30 92.5 81 91.6 95 96.4 75
44 BYU 7-6 0.548 10-3 213.0 100.0 65 92.6 85 107.3 57 113.0 34 115.5 22 110.6 38
45 Louisville 7-6 0.575 7-6 213.0 109.6 51 106.3 38 107.1 58 103.4 61 104.9 50 96.5 74
46 SMU 7-7 0.501 10-4 211.4 103.0 58 104.6 45 104.6 62 108.4 41 109.6 35 110.5 40
47 Baylor 7-6 0.506 8-5 210.3 115.3 20 119.8 11 116.6 33 95.1 67 93.3 85 101.6 59
48 Penn State 7-6 0.508 7-6 210.1 104.1 53 99.5 64 112.1 45 106.0 46 107.4 42 108.2 48
49 Air Force 9-4 0.594 8-5 209.2 106.4 39 104.8 43 114.4 40 102.8 50 103.1 55 108.6 46
50 Cincinnati 4-8 0.492 7-5 209.2 113.9 30 113.6 21 116.1 34 95.3 71 92.9 86 99.2 62
51 Tennessee 6-7 0.518 5-8 208.4 105.0 47 101.0 58 114.8 39 103.4 49 101.9 58 110.6 38
52 Tulsa 10-3 0.577 7-6 207.7 110.1 41 109.6 32 108.9 52 97.5 70 95.3 79 98.2 65
53 Southern Miss 8-5 0.555 8-5 206.8 102.1 70 100.3 60 96.9 78 104.8 57 105.5 48 96.9 69
54 Boston College 7-6 0.485 7-6 206.7 91.0 94 86.0 104 94.3 87 115.8 33 119.4 10 110.1 42
55 South Florida 8-5 0.546 7-6 206.5 98.8 71 95.6 79 101.5 69 107.7 47 109.6 36 105.3 51
56 Washington 7-6 0.426 6-7 206.4 108.5 36 109.7 31 113.7 42 97.9 60 96.2 75 105.3 52
57 Texas Tech 8-5 0.517 7-6 206.2 107.5 37 103.5 50 118.3 31 98.7 55 99.6 64 104.1 55
58 California 5-7 0.534 8-4 206.0 95.8 79 90.7 94 102.6 67 110.3 37 115.5 21 107.0 49
59 Texas 5-7 0.501 7-5 205.5 91.8 88 89.3 99 96.0 81 113.7 31 120.4 8 109.1 45
60 Kentucky 6-7 0.524 7-6 205.2 108.2 44 109.3 33 107.6 55 97.0 68 97.8 68 96.5 73
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
61 Navy 9-4 0.560 7-6 204.4 108.0 40 108.5 34 110.0 50 96.4 66 96.7 72 98.3 64
62 Fresno State 8-5 0.491 7-6 204.1 100.8 63 97.7 73 107.6 55 103.4 51 105.6 47 105.1 53
63 Troy 8-5 0.530 7-6 203.3 106.0 59 104.9 42 104.4 64 97.2 72 94.5 82 97.4 67
64 Houston 5-7 0.539 4-8 203.1 107.4 52 107.0 35 105.6 60 95.7 79 92.7 88 96.7 71
65 East Carolina 6-7 0.455 5-8 202.1 110.4 45 111.3 26 105.3 61 91.7 96 89.7 103 90.4 88
66 Ole Miss 4-8 0.475 5-7 201.3 102.7 55 102.1 54 108.0 54 98.5 59 97.5 69 104.0 56
67 Georgia Tech 6-7 0.508 7-6 200.6 104.2 61 104.4 46 103.1 66 96.4 73 93.9 83 98.0 66
68 Kansas State 7-6 0.536 5-8 200.6 107.4 49 104.1 48 109.7 51 93.2 86 89.4 105 96.1 76
69 Syracuse 8-5 0.534 7-6 199.2 95.7 87 91.6 89 96.0 80 103.5 56 106.2 46 96.8 70
70 Colorado 5-7 0.439 6-6 199.0 100.2 62 96.7 76 110.6 49 98.8 54 97.8 67 106.6 50
71 Florida International 7-6 0.513 6-7 198.9 103.1 64 103.6 49 98.5 75 95.8 82 95.5 77 92.2 84
72 Temple 8-4 0.565 8-4 198.3 100.2 75 99.8 63 95.0 85 98.1 75 98.6 65 92.2 83
73 Connecticut 8-5 0.544 6-7 197.7 97.4 81 95.5 80 97.4 77 100.3 63 99.7 62 99.0 63
74 Western Michigan 6-6 0.576 6-6 197.6 102.3 74 98.9 68 95.9 82 95.2 94 95.4 78 86.0 101
75 Toledo 8-5 0.495 7-6 196.4 98.0 69 97.4 75 100.2 73 98.4 64 102.0 57 96.6 72
76 UCLA 4-8 0.399 4-8 194.4 95.1 78 92.4 86 101.0 72 99.2 58 99.7 63 102.1 58
77 Ohio 8-5 0.536 5-8 192.4 98.6 82 98.0 72 94.6 86 93.8 89 93.7 84 89.5 92
78 Arkansas State 4-8 0.494 3-9 192.0 95.9 76 98.7 69 95.1 84 96.1 69 92.7 87 101.4 60
79 Army 7-6 0.522 5-8 190.2 95.3 91 93.4 84 88.7 93 94.9 93 94.6 81 87.0 98
80 Louisiana Tech 5-7 0.466 3-9 190.1 96.2 72 94.6 81 101.4 70 93.9 74 96.4 74 94.9 77
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
81 Duke 3-9 0.416 4-8 190.1 97.8 77 99.2 67 94.2 88 92.2 90 91.3 97 91.1 86
82 Miami (Ohio) 10-4 0.482 7-7 189.6 92.5 92 96.6 78 83.9 103 97.1 78 99.7 61 89.9 91
83 UAB 4-8 0.455 5-7 189.4 95.8 84 100.5 59 91.2 92 93.5 83 96.8 71 90.3 89
84 Iowa State 5-7 0.425 5-7 188.7 92.1 83 90.8 93 101.0 71 96.7 62 96.6 73 104.7 54
85 Indiana 5-7 0.444 1-11 188.7 99.8 66 100.1 62 99.7 74 88.9 99 87.3 111 90.7 87
86 Minnesota 3-9 0.413 3-9 188.4 97.4 67 97.5 74 102.0 68 91.1 85 89.5 104 97.1 68
87 Northwestern 7-6 0.476 2-11 187.9 97.6 73 99.5 66 95.5 83 90.3 95 92.2 92 88.2 95
88 Virginia 4-8 0.473 4-8 187.1 99.4 68 101.5 56 97.5 76 87.7 103 88.9 106 86.8 99
89 Idaho 6-7 0.484 4-9 187.0 95.0 80 89.4 98 103.9 65 92.0 84 92.4 91 94.6 78
90 Purdue 4-8 0.406 2-10 186.1 83.7 105 83.6 111 86.9 95 102.4 53 108.1 41 100.6 61
91 Utah State 4-8 0.395 4-8 184.8 92.7 85 84.0 110 107.0 59 92.1 77 96.9 70 92.8 81
92 Central Michigan 3-9 0.484 7-5 183.3 91.7 97 94.2 82 85.0 102 91.6 97 91.5 96 87.6 96
93 Marshall 5-7 0.420 6-6 183.0 87.2 95 87.3 103 92.4 91 95.8 65 103.3 54 94.2 79
94 Kent State 5-7 0.481 7-5 181.0 84.9 110 86.0 105 77.7 113 96.1 87 107.3 43 78.1 115
95 Rutgers 4-8 0.439 4-8 179.8 85.7 108 85.0 107 83.3 106 94.1 88 92.7 89 92.2 84
96 North Texas 3-9 0.446 5-7 179.7 91.8 96 93.6 83 85.6 99 87.9 111 90.9 99 80.7 112
97 Wake Forest 3-9 0.388 2-10 178.6 89.3 90 89.6 97 92.7 90 89.2 91 91.9 94 90.2 90
98 Tulane 4-8 0.401 1-11 178.1 88.2 103 87.4 102 86.0 96 89.9 101 90.9 98 85.6 103
99 Middle Tennessee 6-7 0.485 5-8 177.9 88.4 107 89.9 96 79.7 112 89.6 110 94.7 80 77.1 116
100 Rice 4-8 0.427 2-10 177.6 89.4 101 92.2 87 83.0 107 88.2 107 89.9 102 83.1 109
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
101 UL-Monroe 5-7 0.391 3-9 176.5 83.6 106 84.8 108 85.5 100 92.9 80 96.1 76 93.2 80
102 Wyoming 3-9 0.386 3-9 176.2 91.5 86 91.2 90 96.7 79 84.7 106 90.5 101 83.6 108
103 Vanderbilt 2-10 0.351 2-10 174.9 80.7 111 81.6 112 81.6 110 94.2 76 98.0 66 92.6 82
104 Florida Atlantic 4-8 0.365 2-10 174.6 86.7 102 88.7 100 85.8 98 87.9 100 92.5 90 84.2 105
105 UL-Lafayette 3-9 0.376 0-12 174.4 85.4 104 87.4 101 83.7 104 89.1 98 92.2 93 86.3 100
106 UTEP 6-7 0.486 2-11 174.2 90.9 100 91.2 91 85.1 101 83.3 116 84.4 116 77.1 116
107 Washington State 2-10 0.353 1-11 171.8 88.0 89 90.2 95 93.0 89 83.8 105 85.8 114 88.7 93
108 Western Kentucky 2-10 0.408 2-10 171.6 82.4 112 81.5 113 81.0 111 89.2 102 90.6 100 85.5 104
109 Colorado State 3-9 0.321 2-10 171.1 87.6 93 92.2 88 88.3 94 83.5 109 86.3 113 85.8 102
110 San Jose State 1-12 0.316 3-10 170.5 85.6 99 90.8 92 86.0 97 84.9 104 87.0 112 88.4 94
111 Eastern Michigan 2-10 0.302 1-11 169.5 91.9 98 96.7 77 82.0 108 77.6 120 77.8 120 73.1 118
112 Buffalo 2-10 0.336 3-9 166.6 74.2 117 75.9 117 70.5 118 92.3 92 100.7 59 81.4 110
113 Ball State 4-8 0.419 2-10 162.2 81.4 114 84.4 109 72.8 117 80.9 119 85.5 115 70.8 120
114 Bowling Green 2-10 0.388 1-11 161.1 76.4 115 77.8 116 74.4 115 84.7 112 87.7 109 81.2 111
115 UNLV 2-11 0.317 2-11 160.8 80.6 109 85.3 106 82.0 108 80.2 115 79.2 119 87.4 97
116 Kansas 3-9 0.332 0-12 160.6 76.8 113 74.9 118 83.4 105 83.8 108 88.8 107 83.9 106
117 Memphis 1-11 0.265 0-12 156.9 72.8 119 78.8 114 67.1 120 84.1 113 88.0 108 80.5 113
118 Akron 1-11 0.307 0-12 155.8 74.5 118 78.4 115 67.8 119 81.4 118 87.3 110 72.4 119
119 New Mexico 1-11 0.263 1-11 152.7 71.0 120 72.1 119 73.7 116 81.7 114 84.0 117 83.7 107
120 New Mexico State 2-10 0.284 1-11 152.0 72.9 116 72.0 120 76.0 114 79.0 117 82.2 118 78.2 114