Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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2011 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/9/12

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
1 Alabama 12-1 0.810 12-1 333.0 139.1 3 130.0 4 148.2 3 193.8 1 162.4 1 225.3 1
2 LSU 13-1 0.760 13-1 297.5 136.3 6 121.6 9 150.9 2 161.2 2 148.5 2 173.9 2
3 Boise State 12-1 0.703 12-1 272.0 129.3 9 119.3 11 139.4 9 142.7 3 132.9 3 152.5 3
4 Oklahoma State 12-1 0.645 12-1 266.2 139.4 2 131.9 2 147.0 5 126.8 13 110.9 29 142.7 10
5 Oregon 12-2 0.652 14-0 264.6 134.2 7 127.1 6 141.3 8 130.4 12 121.7 11 139.2 11
6 Wisconsin 11-3 0.699 14-0 255.6 151.6 1 141.4 1 161.7 1 104.0 55 98.7 70 109.4 47
7 Oklahoma 10-3 0.642 12-1 252.9 115.7 22 112.7 20 118.6 24 137.2 7 125.1 10 149.4 6
8 Stanford 11-2 0.663 13-0 252.8 133.2 8 121.0 10 145.5 6 119.6 22 112.5 25 126.8 18
9 Georgia 10-4 0.609 14-0 251.2 114.7 25 109.4 27 120.1 22 136.5 8 126.7 8 146.3 8
10 Notre Dame 8-5 0.586 12-1 248.8 116.8 20 113.7 16 119.9 23 132.0 11 119.2 14 144.8 9
11 Michigan 11-2 0.657 10-3 246.9 128.4 11 121.8 8 135.0 10 118.5 23 106.0 41 131.1 16
12 Florida State 9-4 0.670 11-2 246.8 105.5 48 104.4 53 106.7 49 141.3 4 132.1 4 150.5 5
13 Michigan State 11-3 0.628 12-2 245.3 108.0 43 106.6 43 109.4 40 137.3 6 128.3 7 146.3 7
14 Texas A&M 7-6 0.581 12-1 241.3 120.4 16 110.3 23 130.5 12 120.9 20 120.1 13 121.7 24
15 USC 10-2 0.603 11-1 239.8 123.6 12 116.7 15 130.4 13 116.3 28 111.7 28 120.9 27
16 Houston 13-1 0.687 12-2 237.9 138.6 4 130.2 3 147.1 4 99.3 65 99.9 66 98.7 67
17 South Carolina 11-2 0.621 12-1 235.5 111.2 31 107.2 38 115.2 32 124.3 15 119.1 15 129.5 17
18 Arkansas 11-2 0.623 10-3 234.6 128.5 10 122.3 7 134.6 11 106.1 50 101.0 56 111.2 43
19 TCU 11-2 0.656 11-2 233.7 122.4 13 117.0 14 127.9 14 111.3 38 109.0 37 113.6 38
20 Temple 9-4 0.687 9-4 233.6 111.2 32 106.0 46 116.4 29 122.5 16 110.9 30 134.1 14
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
21 Southern Miss 12-2 0.639 11-3 231.7 110.8 34 107.8 34 113.8 35 120.9 19 120.2 12 121.6 25
22 Tulsa 8-5 0.548 12-1 230.9 116.2 21 108.8 31 123.6 20 114.7 31 115.1 20 114.4 37
23 Virginia Tech 11-3 0.613 11-3 229.5 107.5 45 106.2 45 108.8 41 122.0 17 118.8 16 125.1 19
24 Penn State 9-4 0.535 10-3 228.8 90.1 91 95.5 77 84.7 103 138.7 5 126.3 9 151.2 4
25 Baylor 10-3 0.549 11-2 227.3 137.1 5 129.1 5 145.0 7 90.2 95 92.0 92 88.4 96
26 Toledo 9-4 0.571 8-5 226.8 118.4 17 113.1 17 123.6 19 108.5 43 106.6 40 110.3 45
27 Texas 8-5 0.558 9-4 226.8 93.0 84 92.5 94 93.4 80 133.9 9 131.7 5 136.1 13
28 Nebraska 9-4 0.555 10-3 226.1 109.5 37 102.7 56 116.3 31 116.6 27 114.8 21 118.5 31
29 West Virginia 10-3 0.584 10-3 224.4 122.3 14 117.3 12 127.3 15 102.1 60 100.1 64 104.1 59
30 Missouri 8-5 0.583 12-1 223.4 108.1 42 108.6 32 107.7 45 115.3 30 109.4 36 121.2 26
31 Florida 7-6 0.556 9-4 223.2 110.9 33 107.3 37 114.6 34 112.2 35 109.4 35 115.1 34
32 Nevada 7-6 0.558 10-3 220.3 108.4 41 109.4 25 107.5 47 111.9 36 108.8 38 115.0 35
33 BYU 10-3 0.596 9-4 219.9 104.3 53 101.0 60 107.7 46 115.6 29 112.1 26 119.1 30
34 California 7-6 0.540 9-4 219.9 103.0 58 99.1 64 106.9 48 116.9 26 114.3 22 119.6 29
35 Illinois 7-6 0.536 10-3 219.0 85.9 104 88.8 103 83.0 105 133.1 10 128.9 6 137.2 12
36 Vanderbilt 6-7 0.553 9-4 218.9 104.9 50 101.3 58 108.6 43 114.0 32 110.3 31 117.7 32
37 Ohio State 6-7 0.538 8-5 217.2 99.1 65 94.3 82 103.8 55 118.2 25 111.8 27 124.6 20
38 South Florida 5-7 0.563 9-3 216.8 108.9 39 109.1 29 108.6 42 107.9 45 104.7 47 111.2 44
39 Northern Illinois 11-3 0.558 10-4 216.8 118.2 18 111.1 22 125.3 17 98.6 67 101.0 57 96.1 72
40 SMU 8-5 0.528 9-4 216.7 105.2 49 109.5 24 100.9 61 111.5 37 114.0 23 109.0 50
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
41 Georgia Tech 8-5 0.568 8-5 216.1 121.4 15 117.3 13 125.5 16 94.7 76 98.4 71 91.0 85
42 Cincinnati 10-3 0.621 9-4 215.8 111.7 29 107.0 40 116.4 30 104.1 54 105.4 45 102.8 61
43 Arkansas State 10-3 0.610 10-3 214.1 104.5 52 103.5 54 105.5 51 109.6 39 109.9 34 109.3 48
44 Louisiana Tech 8-5 0.565 8-5 214.0 93.0 83 93.2 87 92.8 83 121.0 18 117.7 17 124.3 21
45 Tennessee 5-7 0.474 6-6 213.6 106.3 47 107.3 36 105.4 52 107.3 47 103.3 50 111.3 42
46 Miami 6-6 0.569 7-5 213.1 115.0 23 112.8 19 117.2 27 98.1 69 95.9 81 100.2 66
47 Mississippi State 7-6 0.562 7-6 213.1 99.7 63 102.3 57 97.0 69 113.4 33 109.9 33 116.9 33
48 Central Florida 5-7 0.596 9-3 213.0 104.8 51 104.8 52 104.7 53 108.2 44 110.0 32 106.5 54
49 Clemson 10-4 0.534 10-4 211.9 115.0 24 112.7 21 117.3 26 96.9 73 98.0 73 95.9 73
50 Western Michigan 7-6 0.552 9-4 211.0 116.9 19 113.0 18 120.8 21 94.1 79 90.8 98 97.3 69
51 Arizona State 6-7 0.537 8-5 210.0 107.7 44 108.9 30 106.5 50 102.3 59 100.2 63 104.3 58
52 North Carolina 7-6 0.530 11-2 208.5 103.6 54 109.3 28 98.0 67 104.9 52 104.1 48 105.6 55
53 Utah 8-5 0.553 6-7 207.5 81.8 110 84.3 111 79.4 108 125.7 14 117.6 18 133.7 15
54 Utah State 7-6 0.546 9-4 207.5 109.9 36 109.4 26 110.3 38 97.6 70 100.4 62 94.8 74
55 Iowa 7-6 0.536 7-6 207.1 106.9 46 105.1 50 108.6 44 100.3 64 103.2 51 97.3 70
56 Kansas State 10-3 0.532 6-7 206.6 97.7 69 92.8 91 102.5 57 108.9 42 103.1 52 114.7 36
57 Ohio 10-4 0.579 11-3 205.0 103.5 56 105.8 48 101.3 59 101.4 63 99.3 68 103.6 60
58 Rutgers 9-4 0.590 8-5 203.6 85.4 105 85.6 107 85.2 100 118.2 24 113.0 24 123.4 22
59 Pittsburgh 6-7 0.515 6-7 203.0 95.9 75 95.9 74 95.9 74 107.1 48 105.7 44 108.5 52
60 Virginia 8-5 0.494 7-6 202.9 93.5 80 97.8 68 89.1 88 109.4 40 107.2 39 111.7 41
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
61 Air Force 7-6 0.552 6-7 202.8 111.6 30 106.2 44 117.0 28 91.2 91 92.6 89 89.9 91
62 Auburn 8-5 0.470 5-8 201.5 108.5 40 107.0 39 110.0 39 93.0 84 96.0 79 89.9 90
63 Arizona 4-8 0.465 7-5 201.4 109.4 38 107.0 41 111.8 37 92.0 88 95.0 83 88.9 95
64 Florida International 8-5 0.562 8-5 200.9 91.6 89 95.4 78 87.8 94 109.3 41 106.0 42 112.6 40
65 Louisville 7-6 0.522 6-7 200.8 95.8 76 97.9 67 93.6 78 105.0 51 101.0 58 109.0 49
66 San Diego State 8-5 0.544 7-6 200.5 96.7 71 95.9 75 97.6 68 103.8 57 102.9 53 104.7 56
67 Northwestern 6-7 0.511 5-8 200.3 111.8 28 108.4 33 115.2 33 88.5 100 89.3 105 87.7 99
68 Washington 7-6 0.482 8-5 199.8 110.0 35 107.6 35 112.3 36 89.9 97 91.7 93 88.0 98
69 Connecticut 5-7 0.499 3-9 199.7 86.7 102 85.4 109 88.0 93 113.0 34 105.9 43 120.1 28
70 Navy 5-7 0.506 5-7 199.6 114.7 26 105.3 49 124.0 18 84.9 111 84.3 113 85.5 104
71 Miami (Ohio) 4-8 0.482 7-5 199.0 91.7 88 94.7 80 88.6 89 107.3 46 105.0 46 109.7 46
72 UCLA 6-8 0.424 10-4 198.0 103.5 57 106.6 42 100.3 62 94.5 77 98.4 72 90.7 87
73 Texas Tech 5-7 0.463 4-8 197.6 112.0 27 105.9 47 118.0 25 85.6 107 88.8 107 82.5 108
74 Bowling Green 5-7 0.479 6-6 197.5 100.8 59 103.0 55 98.7 65 96.7 74 96.3 77 97.1 71
75 East Carolina 5-7 0.449 7-5 196.8 99.7 62 96.8 73 102.7 56 97.0 72 96.4 76 97.7 68
76 UL-Lafayette 9-4 0.520 6-7 194.8 100.8 61 101.3 59 100.2 63 94.0 80 98.9 69 89.1 94
77 Purdue 7-6 0.501 5-8 194.5 96.1 74 92.6 93 99.5 64 98.4 68 95.9 80 101.0 63
78 Wake Forest 6-7 0.487 6-7 194.0 100.8 60 97.6 70 104.0 54 93.2 83 96.8 75 89.5 92
79 N.C. State 8-5 0.533 5-8 193.8 90.0 92 88.6 104 91.4 84 103.8 56 100.6 61 107.0 53
80 Marshall 7-6 0.433 4-9 192.4 89.8 95 91.3 97 88.3 91 102.6 58 101.0 59 104.3 57
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
81 Kent State 5-7 0.413 4-8 192.1 71.9 116 75.3 119 68.6 116 120.2 21 117.6 19 122.7 23
82 UL-Monroe 4-8 0.492 6-6 191.9 93.1 82 93.0 89 93.2 81 98.8 66 103.6 49 93.9 76
83 Iowa State 6-7 0.436 4-9 191.5 87.1 101 89.2 102 85.1 101 104.3 53 100.1 65 108.6 51
84 Hawaii 6-7 0.520 6-7 191.3 97.9 68 99.4 63 96.3 71 93.5 82 96.1 78 90.8 86
85 UTEP 5-7 0.467 4-8 191.1 98.5 66 100.3 61 96.8 70 92.5 85 92.6 90 92.5 78
86 Oregon State 3-9 0.415 3-9 190.6 89.0 98 93.3 86 84.8 102 101.5 61 101.2 55 101.9 62
87 Syracuse 5-7 0.459 7-5 189.5 95.6 77 95.1 79 96.1 72 93.9 81 97.3 74 90.5 88
88 Fresno State 4-9 0.448 5-8 189.1 103.6 55 104.8 51 102.3 58 85.5 109 88.5 109 82.5 107
89 Duke 3-9 0.419 2-10 187.4 97.3 70 98.9 65 95.7 76 90.1 96 90.9 95 89.3 93
90 Kentucky 5-7 0.391 2-10 187.2 80.7 111 80.9 113 80.5 107 106.5 49 99.5 67 113.6 39
91 Army 3-9 0.468 4-8 187.1 96.3 73 97.2 72 95.3 77 90.8 94 90.0 102 91.6 79
92 San Jose State 5-7 0.447 2-10 186.7 89.5 96 92.1 95 86.9 97 97.2 71 94.1 86 100.3 65
93 Ball State 6-6 0.422 3-9 186.6 99.3 64 97.7 69 100.9 60 87.3 106 88.8 106 85.8 103
94 Boston College 4-8 0.436 4-8 186.4 84.9 106 87.3 106 82.6 106 101.5 62 102.2 54 100.7 64
95 Minnesota 3-9 0.368 5-7 185.3 93.6 79 94.3 83 92.9 82 91.7 89 95.7 82 87.6 100
96 Washington State 4-8 0.484 3-9 185.2 96.4 72 94.3 81 98.5 66 88.8 99 89.3 104 88.2 97
97 Maryland 2-10 0.403 5-7 183.8 95.4 78 97.3 71 93.5 79 88.4 102 90.5 100 86.3 101
98 Western Kentucky 7-5 0.480 4-8 181.8 89.4 97 92.9 90 86.0 99 92.3 87 93.2 88 91.4 80
99 Ole Miss 2-10 0.334 0-12 180.9 88.6 100 89.8 100 87.3 96 92.4 86 90.8 97 93.9 75
100 Rice 4-8 0.412 0-12 180.6 86.4 103 85.4 108 87.4 95 94.2 78 94.7 84 93.7 77
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
101 Buffalo 3-9 0.430 3-9 180.4 92.0 86 93.4 85 90.6 85 88.4 101 93.3 87 83.5 106
102 Wyoming 8-5 0.484 3-10 179.8 90.0 93 93.1 88 86.8 98 89.8 98 88.4 110 91.3 82
103 North Texas 5-7 0.447 4-8 179.6 88.6 99 94.0 84 83.2 104 91.0 93 90.8 96 91.2 83
104 Eastern Michigan 6-6 0.466 5-7 179.6 83.6 108 88.1 105 79.1 109 96.0 75 100.7 60 91.3 81
105 Colorado 3-10 0.351 4-9 179.5 91.4 90 92.8 92 89.9 86 88.1 103 90.4 101 85.9 102
106 Central Michigan 3-9 0.404 4-8 178.6 93.3 81 98.1 66 88.4 90 85.3 110 88.7 108 81.9 110
107 New Mexico State 4-9 0.400 3-10 177.5 92.0 87 95.8 76 88.1 92 85.6 108 89.5 103 81.6 111
108 UAB 3-9 0.354 2-10 173.9 97.9 67 100.1 62 95.8 75 75.9 118 76.5 120 75.3 117
109 Kansas 2-10 0.338 0-12 172.9 89.9 94 90.5 99 89.3 87 83.0 113 83.9 114 82.1 109
110 Troy 3-9 0.400 2-10 172.6 84.6 107 91.5 96 77.7 110 88.0 104 90.6 99 85.4 105
111 Colorado State 3-9 0.407 2-10 170.5 79.1 112 83.2 112 74.9 111 91.4 90 91.7 94 91.1 84
112 Indiana 1-11 0.365 1-11 167.8 92.8 85 89.6 101 96.0 73 75.0 119 78.0 118 71.9 119
113 Idaho 2-10 0.379 0-12 166.1 75.0 115 78.9 115 71.0 114 91.1 92 92.1 91 90.2 89
114 Middle Tennessee 2-10 0.377 3-9 161.4 82.4 109 90.7 98 74.0 112 79.0 115 82.3 115 75.8 116
115 Tulane 2-11 0.360 2-11 159.5 77.7 113 84.5 110 70.9 115 81.8 114 87.7 112 75.8 115
116 UNLV 2-10 0.299 2-10 158.7 75.1 114 76.6 117 73.5 113 83.7 112 88.3 111 79.0 113
117 Florida Atlantic 1-11 0.272 2-10 153.5 66.2 120 72.5 120 59.9 119 87.3 105 94.5 85 80.2 112
118 Memphis 2-10 0.317 0-12 146.4 68.1 119 75.5 118 60.7 118 78.2 116 79.3 116 77.2 114
119 Akron 1-11 0.269 1-11 146.0 71.8 117 80.1 114 63.4 117 74.2 120 76.8 119 71.7 120
120 New Mexico 1-11 0.224 0-12 145.0 68.6 118 78.4 116 58.8 120 76.4 117 79.1 117 73.7 118