Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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2012 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/7/13

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Also included below: a team's percentage of total points scored and its Adjusted Record. Based on single-game S&P+ performances, this is the record a team would have had playing a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, in each week of the season. Adj. Record gives you a different way to visualize the impact of both team consistency and schedule strength.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
1 Alabama 13-1 0.780 14-0 312.3 147.7 4 130.4 3 153.6 2 164.6 1 147.8 1 168.8 2
2 Oregon 12-1 0.697 13-0 270.5 129.2 2 133.7 1 153.3 3 141.2 2 119.1 17 194.5 1
3 Texas A&M 11-2 0.665 12-0 263.6 138.1 1 128.4 4 160.1 1 125.5 9 124.8 10 137.3 9
4 Florida State 12-2 0.728 14-0 263.4 123.9 10 125.6 5 128.1 22 139.6 3 136.0 3 149.9 3
5 Florida 11-2 0.647 12-1 258.5 117.9 28 107.1 40 127.5 23 140.5 4 135.2 4 144.2 6
6 Georgia 12-2 0.658 11-3 254.6 134.6 3 132.3 2 152.9 4 120.0 14 109.6 31 144.5 5
7 Notre Dame 12-1 0.669 13-0 253.3 125.9 7 118.6 13 141.7 6 127.4 8 121.4 14 142.0 8
8 Utah State 11-2 0.694 13-0 247.2 117.5 30 115.2 21 118.9 34 129.7 10 130.5 7 127.8 17
9 Oklahoma 10-3 0.625 11-1 246.3 125.3 6 114.1 25 147.4 5 120.9 15 118.5 18 133.8 11
10 LSU 10-3 0.629 12-1 246.0 113.6 37 104.9 45 122.1 26 132.5 7 131.6 5 133.2 13
11 BYU 8-5 0.672 11-2 244.5 113.1 44 100.9 62 120.0 28 131.4 13 130.7 6 126.1 22
12 South Carolina 11-2 0.634 11-2 242.2 114.5 25 103.5 47 134.1 12 127.8 6 122.4 12 142.8 7
13 Boise State 11-2 0.657 10-3 242.0 117.2 40 111.3 32 113.0 45 124.9 23 118.3 19 120.8 28
14 Fresno State 9-4 0.614 11-2 242.0 116.9 32 112.6 28 119.5 30 125.1 17 122.0 13 126.3 20
15 Oklahoma State 8-5 0.618 12-1 241.3 118.8 14 115.7 19 133.2 14 122.6 12 110.5 28 146.3 4
16 Michigan State 7-6 0.551 10-3 241.3 104.1 59 91.7 90 113.8 43 137.2 5 137.4 2 133.6 12
17 Nebraska 10-4 0.558 11-3 240.6 124.2 8 124.2 7 135.6 9 116.4 20 111.8 25 131.7 14
18 Stanford 12-2 0.618 11-3 238.0 113.4 29 102.3 57 131.8 16 124.5 11 127.5 8 129.5 16
19 Michigan 8-5 0.601 11-2 237.7 124.0 9 115.8 18 138.5 8 113.7 29 107.3 38 125.9 24
20 Wisconsin 8-6 0.607 9-5 237.3 115.7 26 106.8 41 130.6 18 121.6 16 122.4 11 127.2 18
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
21 Clemson 11-2 0.623 11-2 235.9 128.3 5 125.0 6 140.4 7 107.6 34 96.9 74 125.7 25
22 Oregon State 9-4 0.612 9-4 234.3 119.8 18 110.1 35 135.6 9 114.5 26 112.1 24 122.9 27
23 Ohio State 12-0 0.619 11-1 234.3 119.5 16 117.0 14 129.7 20 114.7 25 110.3 30 126.4 19
24 Kansas State 11-2 0.637 11-2 232.5 116.8 23 110.4 34 130.6 19 115.7 24 109.1 35 129.6 15
25 Penn State 8-4 0.604 9-3 230.9 108.9 48 101.4 60 114.8 41 122.0 22 116.1 21 125.9 23
26 San Jose State 11-2 0.620 13-0 229.6 117.6 31 114.7 22 119.4 32 112.0 33 110.5 29 112.5 37
27 Ole Miss 7-6 0.533 10-3 229.2 115.3 17 112.7 27 133.3 13 113.9 21 106.8 40 136.3 10
28 USC 7-6 0.569 11-2 227.2 116.1 20 121.2 10 120.7 27 111.1 30 106.4 43 125.1 26
29 Georgia Tech 7-7 0.543 8-6 225.2 119.4 13 116.8 15 132.7 15 105.8 37 104.0 50 117.0 32
30 Arkansas State 10-3 0.588 9-4 224.7 119.4 22 112.0 30 129.1 21 105.4 48 100.5 62 112.3 38
31 Northern Illinois 12-2 0.660 10-4 223.6 112.3 43 106.8 42 114.2 42 111.3 39 109.4 32 109.7 40
32 TCU 7-6 0.556 8-5 222.1 99.9 64 93.7 83 106.9 57 122.2 18 119.3 16 126.2 21
33 Baylor 8-5 0.544 11-2 221.8 122.8 11 120.2 11 131.7 17 99.0 60 94.7 85 108.5 45
34 Arizona State 8-5 0.612 11-2 221.3 110.0 46 105.4 44 113.4 44 111.3 36 112.6 23 108.6 42
35 Arizona 8-5 0.519 10-3 220.9 121.6 12 116.4 17 135.5 11 99.3 56 99.0 67 106.8 50
36 Texas 9-4 0.550 10-3 220.6 113.3 24 110.7 33 127.2 24 107.4 32 105.9 44 119.6 30
37 Tulsa 11-3 0.595 10-4 219.4 102.9 55 98.4 70 109.0 52 116.5 27 114.3 22 120.6 29
38 Central Florida 10-4 0.616 10-4 219.4 112.6 39 108.6 37 116.1 37 106.8 46 104.6 47 108.5 44
39 Louisville 11-2 0.567 8-5 219.2 115.8 36 112.1 29 115.7 38 103.4 59 100.0 64 103.5 58
40 San Diego State 9-4 0.574 9-4 217.4 109.9 45 106.6 43 112.5 46 107.5 45 105.9 45 108.2 46
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
41 UCLA 9-5 0.555 9-5 217.3 109.7 42 109.7 36 111.4 49 107.6 40 102.9 55 114.0 36
42 West Virginia 7-6 0.509 8-5 217.2 118.3 15 120.2 12 126.7 25 98.8 55 94.1 87 112.1 39
43 Virginia Tech 7-6 0.523 11-2 216.3 96.5 68 91.5 93 106.5 58 119.7 19 126.9 9 118.6 31
44 Louisiana Tech 9-3 0.572 9-3 216.1 118.4 27 116.6 16 119.5 31 97.7 75 91.1 99 103.7 56
45 Rutgers 9-4 0.603 6-7 215.3 93.1 104 86.7 112 91.2 91 122.2 28 117.9 20 115.7 34
46 Northwestern 10-3 0.584 9-4 215.1 109.7 47 103.2 51 114.9 40 105.4 50 101.5 59 108.0 48
47 Arkansas 4-8 0.436 9-3 215.0 117.0 21 122.6 9 119.0 33 97.9 63 98.8 68 103.4 59
48 Texas Tech 8-5 0.541 9-4 214.5 113.0 33 114.4 24 117.0 36 101.4 53 101.0 61 106.7 51
49 Cincinnati 10-3 0.636 9-4 213.4 110.6 49 108.3 38 107.1 56 102.9 68 96.5 76 103.9 55
50 Tennessee 5-7 0.504 9-3 212.3 118.9 19 123.0 8 119.8 29 93.4 81 92.7 94 98.1 71
51 Syracuse 8-5 0.548 8-5 212.2 113.1 35 112.0 31 117.4 35 99.1 66 100.5 63 100.5 64
52 North Carolina 8-4 0.613 10-2 211.2 113.4 38 114.5 23 112.0 47 97.9 74 97.5 70 97.9 73
53 Mississippi State 8-5 0.558 9-4 210.4 104.3 51 103.4 48 108.2 53 106.1 43 107.0 39 108.2 47
54 UL-Lafayette 9-4 0.558 9-4 210.3 115.5 34 115.3 20 115.4 39 94.8 83 93.6 91 95.7 81
55 Kent State 11-3 0.574 7-7 209.5 100.8 69 98.4 69 99.0 70 108.7 47 104.1 49 108.7 41
56 Vanderbilt 9-4 0.616 8-5 209.4 101.3 61 95.1 80 108.1 54 108.1 41 108.3 36 108.6 42
57 Missouri 5-7 0.475 8-4 208.8 97.0 70 92.5 87 103.1 63 111.9 31 109.2 34 116.5 33
58 Pittsburgh 6-7 0.558 9-4 206.8 104.7 50 102.5 56 111.8 48 102.1 52 104.4 48 104.7 53
59 Washington 7-6 0.498 9-4 206.2 99.2 67 98.1 72 101.4 68 107.0 44 107.6 37 107.6 49
60 Miami 7-5 0.507 7-5 205.7 110.4 41 113.0 26 110.7 51 95.3 79 95.1 81 97.9 73
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
61 Ball State 9-4 0.512 3-10 204.7 104.7 60 101.2 61 102.4 67 100.0 76 97.2 72 97.4 77
62 N.C. State 7-6 0.523 7-6 204.1 101.1 62 100.1 63 102.6 66 102.9 54 102.7 56 103.6 57
63 Iowa State 6-7 0.506 4-9 202.4 96.0 65 89.2 102 110.8 50 106.3 35 106.6 41 114.8 35
64 Bowling Green 8-5 0.578 7-6 202.3 93.9 98 91.1 97 91.1 93 108.3 49 111.6 26 98.4 70
65 Toledo 9-4 0.526 7-6 201.2 103.6 57 103.3 49 103.1 64 97.6 77 94.0 89 100.5 63
66 California 3-9 0.410 7-5 201.0 100.7 58 102.5 54 103.7 62 100.3 57 104.6 46 100.7 62
67 SMU 7-6 0.543 6-7 200.5 92.1 96 89.8 100 94.2 83 108.4 42 111.0 27 105.4 52
68 Connecticut 5-7 0.472 5-7 199.8 87.6 112 83.2 117 88.8 97 112.2 38 119.8 15 100.4 65
69 Nevada 7-6 0.529 8-5 199.4 107.1 52 107.5 39 103.8 61 92.3 92 94.0 88 88.2 93
70 Houston 5-7 0.474 4-8 199.1 97.4 74 96.8 76 97.1 76 101.7 62 102.0 58 100.4 65
71 Western Kentucky 7-6 0.525 6-7 198.9 97.4 78 99.4 66 92.7 86 101.5 69 103.8 51 96.4 80
72 Marshall 5-7 0.487 6-6 198.1 107.2 56 102.1 58 105.3 59 90.9 101 92.2 96 83.5 110
73 Troy 5-7 0.501 8-4 197.5 102.1 63 103.7 46 97.9 72 95.4 86 96.2 79 92.2 88
74 Purdue 6-7 0.479 6-7 197.4 96.8 72 96.1 78 98.6 71 100.6 61 98.5 69 104.0 54
75 South Florida 3-9 0.429 7-5 197.0 98.5 66 98.3 71 101.3 69 98.5 71 102.2 57 97.5 76
76 Virginia 4-8 0.440 4-8 195.1 93.7 82 92.9 85 96.3 78 101.5 58 106.4 42 98.5 69
77 East Carolina 8-5 0.499 6-7 194.9 98.4 77 97.7 74 95.1 81 96.5 84 96.5 77 92.6 86
78 Utah 5-7 0.515 5-7 193.4 92.7 93 89.1 103 95.7 80 100.8 65 103.5 54 97.6 75
79 UL-Monroe 8-5 0.537 7-6 193.4 97.0 79 93.3 84 97.9 72 96.4 82 96.4 78 93.6 83
80 Ohio 9-4 0.561 4-9 191.9 98.3 88 94.8 81 92.6 87 93.6 98 93.5 92 84.8 105
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
81 Minnesota 6-7 0.472 5-8 191.8 93.0 83 92.1 88 96.1 79 98.8 70 99.0 66 100.9 60
82 Duke 6-7 0.467 3-10 190.3 105.2 53 102.5 55 107.8 55 85.1 112 83.4 119 86.8 99
83 Florida International 3-9 0.441 6-6 189.9 89.2 103 91.8 89 86.8 107 100.7 64 103.5 53 98.1 71
84 Rice 7-6 0.515 4-9 189.2 95.8 97 92.5 86 91.2 90 93.4 96 91.2 98 88.0 94
85 Indiana 4-8 0.466 5-7 189.0 104.4 54 103.0 52 105.1 60 84.6 114 85.6 114 83.0 111
86 Iowa 4-8 0.458 3-9 188.8 90.8 92 88.5 105 97.5 74 98.0 67 101.4 60 99.3 68
87 Western Michigan 4-8 0.497 4-8 187.8 96.7 76 99.7 64 93.2 84 91.1 93 92.7 93 88.8 92
88 Navy 8-5 0.490 4-8 187.1 97.5 75 101.6 59 91.7 89 89.6 99 89.6 107 87.8 95
89 Buffalo 4-8 0.427 4-8 186.1 88.8 102 88.3 106 91.0 94 97.3 72 103.7 52 92.7 85
90 Middle Tennessee 9-3 0.495 5-7 185.0 97.2 81 102.8 53 87.4 102 87.7 111 90.2 105 81.5 114
91 Auburn 3-9 0.397 3-9 184.7 92.4 73 91.3 96 102.8 65 92.4 78 97.4 71 96.6 79
92 Temple 4-7 0.442 1-10 183.7 98.1 71 97.6 75 97.3 75 85.6 113 83.0 120 87.2 98
93 Boston College 2-10 0.401 3-9 183.7 90.4 90 91.6 91 94.8 82 93.3 80 96.6 75 95.7 81
94 Texas State 4-8 0.460 4-8 183.6 94.2 95 97.7 73 86.3 109 89.5 103 90.9 100 84.0 106
95 UAB 3-9 0.430 4-8 183.3 94.4 86 98.6 68 88.9 96 89.0 100 89.4 108 87.4 96
96 Air Force 6-7 0.486 5-8 182.9 95.3 89 98.9 67 87.9 101 87.6 110 90.7 104 81.0 115
97 Wyoming 4-8 0.460 2-10 182.7 94.4 87 94.5 82 93.0 85 88.2 102 89.8 106 85.4 103
98 Kentucky 2-10 0.366 4-8 182.2 91.6 84 91.3 94 96.3 77 90.6 89 94.4 86 91.0 89
99 Miami (Ohio) 4-8 0.401 1-11 181.6 96.3 85 96.4 77 91.2 91 85.3 117 82.5 121 83.7 108
100 Central Michigan 7-6 0.471 3-10 181.1 96.3 91 99.5 65 86.7 108 84.8 118 88.0 111 76.1 121
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
101 Maryland 4-8 0.425 3-9 180.4 77.6 120 73.9 123 84.0 112 102.9 51 109.3 33 100.1 67
102 Washington State 3-9 0.378 4-8 180.0 88.0 100 87.4 108 92.4 88 92.0 87 94.9 82 93.0 84
103 Kansas 1-11 0.336 2-10 179.6 84.8 107 88.7 104 86.9 105 94.8 73 95.6 80 100.8 61
104 New Mexico 4-9 0.460 3-10 178.2 95.1 94 95.8 79 88.3 99 83.1 120 83.6 117 77.4 119
105 UTEP 3-9 0.416 5-7 177.8 89.1 99 91.6 92 90.4 95 88.7 94 89.1 109 92.3 87
106 UNLV 2-11 0.403 3-10 177.0 89.8 101 91.3 95 88.2 100 87.3 105 90.7 103 83.8 107
107 Army 2-10 0.406 2-9 177.0 98.3 80 103.3 50 87.4 102 78.8 124 77.1 124 75.8 123
108 Memphis 4-8 0.447 4-8 176.6 82.1 117 82.9 118 81.3 119 94.5 85 100.0 65 89.0 91
109 Colorado State 4-8 0.412 5-7 175.3 84.2 114 87.0 111 82.1 116 91.1 91 97.1 73 85.9 101
110 Wake Forest 5-7 0.368 2-10 174.9 84.2 113 83.9 116 87.0 104 90.7 90 94.8 83 89.4 90
111 Illinois 2-10 0.342 3-9 174.3 83.9 109 87.0 110 86.9 105 90.5 88 90.9 101 96.7 78
112 Florida Atlantic 3-9 0.399 3-9 173.7 83.9 115 86.6 113 81.3 117 89.7 95 93.8 90 85.6 102
113 Tulane 2-10 0.358 2-10 173.3 87.7 105 88.3 107 88.5 98 85.6 108 85.9 113 86.7 100
114 North Texas 4-8 0.429 3-9 172.9 85.9 111 87.2 109 85.0 111 87.0 107 90.8 102 83.6 109
115 UTSA 6-4 0.472 2-8 172.0 91.3 106 90.8 98 85.7 110 80.7 123 83.4 118 72.5 124
116 Southern Miss 0-12 0.342 5-7 171.8 83.0 116 85.7 115 81.3 117 88.8 97 91.5 97 87.3 97
117 Eastern Michigan 2-10 0.362 1-11 171.3 87.0 110 89.5 101 83.5 115 84.3 115 85.2 115 82.4 112
118 Akron 1-11 0.422 2-10 171.1 87.3 108 90.5 99 83.5 114 83.8 116 88.9 110 78.3 117
119 Idaho 1-11 0.272 2-10 165.4 79.3 119 86.3 114 72.1 121 86.1 109 86.9 112 85.0 104
120 Hawaii 3-9 0.372 3-9 163.5 73.9 122 75.1 122 68.8 122 89.6 106 92.5 95 82.0 113
S&P+
Rk		 Team Record % of Pts Adj. Rec. S&P+ Off. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk Def. S&P+ Rk Play Eff. Rk Drive Eff. Rk
121 South Alabama 2-11 0.385 1-12 161.4 72.1 124 73.7 124 67.2 123 89.3 104 94.8 84 79.9 116
122 New Mexico State 1-11 0.321 0-12 156.0 77.0 121 82.0 119 75.5 120 79.0 119 84.8 116 76.9 120
123 Colorado 1-11 0.279 1-11 153.6 78.2 118 79.8 120 83.8 113 75.3 121 79.6 123 78.0 118
124 Massachusetts 1-11 0.240 0-12 147.6 70.0 123 75.2 121 66.0 124 77.6 122 80.5 122 75.9 122