Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2013 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/6/14

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): A simple schedule measure based on average S&P+ ratings and normal distributions.
  • Weighted S&P+ rating: This is an attempt to measure how a team was playing at the end of a given season, with extra weight given to the most recent games. It is limited in power by small sample sizes, but it is useful in determining which teams finished strong and which derived most of their good (or bad) final ratings from early-season play.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Florida State 14-0 13.1 (-0.9) 98.0% +25.6 1 42.9 4 17.3 7 -0.44 86 +25.5 1
Alabama 11-2 11.6 (0.6) 96.3% +22.2 2 39.5 9 17.3 6 0.22 51 +17.7 7
Baylor 10-2 9.3 (-0.7) 95.6% +21.2 3 43.5 3 22.3 26 0.60 39 +13.1 19
Stanford 11-3 10.8 (-0.2) 95.6% +21.2 4 38.0 15 16.8 3 1.42 9 +17.2 9
Auburn 12-2 9.9 (-2.1) 94.9% +20.4 5 45.2 2 24.9 46 1.43 8 +22.8 3
Missouri 12-2 10.7 (-1.3) 93.3% +18.7 6 40.4 7 21.7 22 1.05 20 +13.3 18
Ohio State 12-2 11.7 (-0.3) 93.0% +18.4 7 42.8 5 24.4 44 -0.21 79 +17.8 6
Arizona State 10-4 9.1 (-0.9) 92.8% +18.2 8 38.6 13 20.5 15 1.36 12 +14.3 15
Oklahoma State 10-3 11.8 (1.8) 92.2% +17.6 9 35.6 20 18.0 9 0.09 63 +15.7 10
South Carolina 11-2 9.6 (-1.4) 92.0% +17.5 10 38.7 11 21.2 20 1.17 15 +5.3 46
Georgia 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 90.7% +16.4 11 40.2 8 23.7 36 1.57 3 +6.1 42
Texas A&M 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 90.7% +16.4 12 47.1 1 30.7 87 1.04 22 +11.8 23
LSU 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 89.9% +15.9 13 38.5 14 22.7 28 0.47 44 +7.8 37
USC 10-4 10.5 (0.5) 89.7% +15.7 14 33.4 32 17.7 8 0.87 27 +7.6 38
UCLA 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 87.7% +14.4 15 36.5 18 22.1 24 0.66 35 +9.6 33
Clemson 11-2 9.9 (-1.1) 87.5% +14.3 16 38.7 12 24.4 41 0.12 61 +15.2 13
Wisconsin 9-4 9.5 (0.5) 87.2% +14.1 17 34.4 25 20.3 14 -0.40 84 +17.3 8
Louisville 12-1 11.4 (-0.6) 86.0% +13.4 18 31.6 47 18.1 11 -1.13 110 +12.7 21
Mississippi State 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 85.9% +13.4 19 34.4 24 21.0 17 1.40 10 +5.7 44
Virginia Tech 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 85.2% +13.0 20 28.1 71 15.1 1 1.14 16 +1.5 64
Oregon 11-2 10.6 (-0.4) 84.2% +12.5 21 38.8 10 26.3 55 -0.56 89 +4.7 49
Michigan State 13-1 11.8 (-1.2) 83.6% +12.2 22 27.8 73 15.7 2 -0.31 82 +12.8 20
Washington 9-4 9.2 (0.2) 83.4% +12.1 23 34.2 26 22.1 25 0.17 56 +4.9 47
Arizona 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 81.8% +11.3 24 35.3 22 24.0 38 0.51 43 -0.1 71
North Carolina 7-6 8.7 (1.7) 81.5% +11.1 25 34.0 27 22.9 29 0.61 38 +7.4 39
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Utah 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 80.6% +10.8 26 32.4 38 21.6 21 1.46 7 -3.4 83
Oklahoma 11-2 8.4 (-2.6) 80.6% +10.7 27 31.9 44 21.2 19 0.84 28 +4.5 50
BYU 8-5 8.4 (0.4) 80.5% +10.7 28 30.5 51 19.8 13 0.52 42 +12.1 22
Iowa 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 80.1% +10.5 29 28.6 66 18.1 10 0.59 40 +9.0 35
Indiana 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 79.6% +10.3 30 42.6 6 32.3 95 1.48 6 -7.3 97
Central Florida 12-1 10.2 (-1.8) 79.5% +10.3 31 35.3 23 25.0 48 -0.30 81 +11.5 26
Utah State 9-5 9.1 (0.1) 79.1% +10.1 32 27.1 79 17.0 5 -0.20 77 +13.9 16
Florida 4-8 5.3 (1.3) 78.3% +9.7 33 26.6 83 16.9 4 1.77 2 +2.8 56
Notre Dame 9-4 7.8 (-1.2) 77.9% +9.6 34 32.9 36 23.3 31 0.76 32 +9.9 30
Kansas State 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 76.7% +9.1 35 33.5 31 24.4 42 -0.01 67 +5.5 45
Pittsburgh 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 75.2% +8.5 36 31.8 45 23.3 32 1.10 18 +1.8 60
Texas 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 74.8% +8.3 37 30.3 53 22.0 23 0.90 26 +3.0 55
Miami 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 74.6% +8.2 38 36.0 19 27.8 68 0.33 50 +3.3 53
North Texas 9-4 10.3 (1.3) 74.2% +8.1 39 28.9 64 20.8 16 -0.86 100 +11.7 24
Toledo 7-5 7.7 (0.7) 73.2% +7.7 40 36.9 16 29.3 77 0.16 58 +19.8 4
Georgia Tech 6-6 6.0 (0.0) 72.8% +7.6 41 32.7 37 25.1 50 0.47 45 +3.8 51
Oregon State 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 72.7% +7.5 42 35.4 21 27.9 69 0.64 37 -0.9 74
Houston 8-5 8.4 (0.4) 71.2% +7.0 43 30.2 56 23.3 30 -0.11 72 +9.1 34
Michigan 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 71.1% +6.9 44 29.5 61 22.6 27 1.04 21 -1.2 75
Ole Miss 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 70.9% +6.9 45 32.0 43 25.1 49 0.66 33 +2.7 57
Fresno State 11-2 9.8 (-1.2) 70.9% +6.9 46 36.8 17 30.0 82 -0.86 101 +13.8 17
Tennessee 5-7 4.9 (-0.1) 69.8% +6.5 47 30.9 49 24.4 43 1.54 4 -1.3 76
Duke 10-4 8.5 (-1.5) 68.9% +6.1 48 32.3 40 26.1 54 0.20 53 +4.7 48
Boise State 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 68.2% +5.9 49 33.6 29 27.7 67 -0.43 85 +7.3 40
TCU 4-8 7.2 (3.2) 66.0% +5.1 50 24.3 97 19.1 12 0.11 62 +5.9 43
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Boston College 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 65.0% +4.8 51 33.5 30 28.7 73 0.66 34 -3.9 86
Penn State 7-5 7.5 (0.5) 64.8% +4.7 52 29.0 62 24.3 39 -0.05 69 +2.3 59
Bowling Green 10-4 10.5 (0.5) 64.7% +4.7 53 30.4 52 25.7 52 -1.70 119 +22.9 2
East Carolina 10-3 10.6 (0.6) 63.2% +4.2 54 30.6 50 26.4 56 -1.48 114 +3.6 52
Washington State 6-7 5.6 (-0.4) 61.6% +3.7 55 30.3 54 26.6 57 0.94 24 -5.4 90
Texas Tech 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 61.0% +3.5 56 32.4 39 28.9 76 0.22 52 -4.5 88
UTSA 7-5 6.4 (-0.6) 59.7% +3.1 57 30.0 58 26.9 61 0.17 57 +15.5 11
Marshall 9-4 9.9 (0.9) 59.5% +3.0 58 31.8 46 28.8 75 -1.56 116 +11.7 25
Syracuse 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 57.6% +2.4 59 26.2 88 23.8 37 0.45 46 +1.0 67
Nebraska 9-4 7.1 (-1.9) 56.6% +2.1 60 29.6 60 27.6 66 -0.30 80 -3.7 84
Ball State 10-3 9.9 (-0.1) 53.3% +1.0 61 33.0 34 32.0 94 -1.88 121 +15.3 12
Navy 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 52.5% +0.8 62 33.1 33 32.3 97 -0.62 93 +6.2 41
Northwestern 5-7 6.2 (1.2) 52.3% +0.7 63 27.5 76 26.7 59 0.19 54 -5.6 91
Northern Illinois 12-2 11.1 (-0.9) 51.9% +0.6 64 33.7 28 33.1 101 -1.72 120 +18.5 5
Rice 10-4 7.6 (-2.4) 51.1% +0.3 65 27.6 75 27.3 64 -0.46 87 +10.3 29
South Alabama 6-6 7.8 (1.8) 51.1% +0.3 66 28.6 65 28.3 72 -0.96 105 +10.9 28
Arkansas 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 50.9% +0.3 67 29.8 59 29.5 78 1.23 14 -2.9 82
Vanderbilt 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 49.8% -0.1 68 25.8 92 25.9 53 -0.79 99 -2.5 80
Tulane 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 49.3% -0.2 69 20.9 112 21.1 18 -0.74 97 +9.6 32
Cincinnati 9-4 9.5 (0.5) 49.2% -0.3 70 26.7 82 26.9 62 -2.19 124 +14.6 14
Wake Forest 3-8 4.3 (1.3) 47.7% -0.7 71 22.6 102 23.4 33 0.97 23 -5.3 89
Buffalo 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 46.8% -1.0 72 26.1 89 27.1 63 -1.13 109 +11.3 27
Maryland 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 45.8% -1.3 73 23.6 100 24.9 47 -0.62 92 -9.7 102
Illinois 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 45.5% -1.4 74 32.9 35 34.3 103 0.93 25 -10.3 104
Virginia 2-10 2.4 (0.4) 45.3% -1.5 75 22.1 107 23.6 35 1.38 11 -6.9 94
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
Iowa State 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 44.2% -1.8 76 26.3 86 28.2 71 0.80 29 -7.1 95
Florida Atlantic 6-6 7.5 (1.5) 43.6% -2.0 77 22.6 103 24.6 45 -1.06 107 +9.8 31
N.C. State 3-9 3.2 (0.2) 43.5% -2.0 78 26.1 90 28.1 70 1.23 13 -7.8 98
Arkansas State 7-5 6.1 (-0.9) 42.9% -2.2 79 28.3 69 30.6 86 -0.10 70 +3.3 54
Minnesota 8-5 6.4 (-1.6) 41.1% -2.8 80 24.7 93 27.5 65 -0.12 74 -0.7 73
Nevada 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 40.8% -2.9 81 32.2 41 35.1 108 0.64 36 +2.4 58
Memphis 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 40.5% -3.0 82 21.4 109 24.3 40 0.15 60 -10.5 105
Tulsa 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 40.3% -3.1 83 22.4 104 25.4 51 1.07 19 +1.6 63
Kentucky 2-10 2.9 (0.9) 39.3% -3.4 84 27.5 77 30.8 89 0.79 30 -17.3 123
San Diego State 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 38.8% -3.5 85 26.7 81 30.3 84 -0.59 91 +0.5 68
UNLV 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 38.6% -3.6 86 28.1 70 31.7 92 -0.90 102 +8.8 36
Purdue 1-11 1.2 (0.2) 37.5% -4.0 87 26.2 87 30.2 83 2.24 1 -15.8 116
San Jose State 6-6 4.8 (-1.2) 37.4% -4.0 88 32.1 42 36.1 111 -0.04 68 -4.1 87
Colorado State 8-6 8.1 (0.1) 36.8% -4.2 89 28.9 63 33.1 100 -1.24 112 +1.8 61
Hawaii 1-11 3.3 (2.3) 35.5% -4.6 90 26.4 85 31.0 91 0.56 41 -5.6 92
Western Kentucky 8-4 7.8 (-0.2) 35.4% -4.7 91 27.6 74 32.3 96 -1.90 122 -0.4 72
SMU 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 33.8% -5.2 92 24.7 94 29.9 81 0.18 55 +1.2 66
Rutgers 6-7 5.6 (-0.4) 32.1% -5.8 93 24.0 99 29.8 80 -0.66 96 -6.6 93
Connecticut 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 30.7% -6.3 94 20.5 113 26.8 60 0.37 49 -2.8 81
Kent State 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 30.5% -6.4 95 24.6 95 30.9 90 -0.10 71 +0.1 70
Middle Tennessee 8-5 6.3 (-1.7) 30.2% -6.5 96 24.3 96 30.8 88 -1.11 108 -3.9 85
Ohio 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 30.0% -6.5 97 23.1 101 29.7 79 -0.90 103 -10.8 108
Akron 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 29.8% -6.6 98 22.1 105 28.7 74 -0.19 76 -1.6 78
Colorado 3-8 3.1 (0.1) 29.5% -6.7 99 26.0 91 32.8 98 0.77 31 -13.2 111
UL-Lafayette 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 28.8% -7.0 100 27.8 72 34.8 105 -1.69 118 +1.8 62
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk Wtd. S&P+ Rk
California 1-11 0.9 (-0.1) 26.3% -7.9 101 28.5 67 36.4 114 1.49 5 -15.3 114
West Virginia 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 25.5% -8.2 102 22.1 106 30.3 85 0.04 65 -14.6 113
South Florida 2-10 1.0 (-1.0) 24.6% -8.5 103 14.9 122 23.4 34 1.14 17 -13.9 112
Kansas 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 24.0% -8.8 104 17.8 119 26.6 58 0.44 48 -11.4 109
Troy 6-6 5.4 (-0.6) 23.8% -8.9 105 30.2 57 39.0 116 -1.28 113 +0.4 69
Temple 2-10 4.5 (2.5) 23.7% -8.9 106 27.4 78 36.4 113 -0.66 95 -1.4 77
UL-Monroe 6-6 4.1 (-1.9) 18.7% -11.1 107 20.9 111 32.0 93 -0.50 88 +1.2 65
Wyoming 5-7 5.1 (0.1) 17.7% -11.6 108 26.9 80 38.5 115 -1.18 111 -9.7 103
New Mexico 3-9 3.2 (0.2) 14.7% -13.1 109 31.5 48 44.6 124 -0.37 83 -10.7 106
Texas State 6-6 6.1 (0.1) 11.7% -14.8 110 18.1 118 33.0 99 -2.40 125 -7.9 99
Air Force 2-10 3.2 (1.2) 11.4% -15.0 111 28.5 68 43.4 122 -0.62 94 -16.2 117
Southern Miss 1-11 1.9 (0.9) 9.9% -16.0 113 18.4 117 34.5 104 0.02 66 -9.6 101
UAB 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 9.5% -16.3 114 26.5 84 42.9 121 -0.58 90 -7.3 96
Central Michigan 6-6 4.6 (-1.4) 8.9% -16.7 115 19.1 116 35.8 110 -2.04 123 -1.7 79
Army 2-10 3.4 (1.4) 7.9% -17.6 116 24.2 98 41.7 119 -1.55 115 -16.5 119
Western Michigan 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 7.3% -18.1 117 16.8 121 34.9 106 -0.77 98 -10.8 107
Idaho 1-11 1.1 (0.1) 6.9% -18.4 118 21.1 110 39.6 117 0.44 47 -18.6 125
Massachusetts 1-11 1.5 (0.5) 5.4% -20.1 119 14.3 123 34.3 102 -0.12 75 -18.0 124
UTEP 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 3.6% -22.3 120 19.9 115 42.3 120 -0.98 106 -16.3 118
Eastern Michigan 2-10 1.6 (-0.4) 3.6% -22.4 121 21.5 108 43.9 123 -0.20 78 -16.7 121
Georgia State 0-12 1.6 (1.6) 3.5% -22.6 122 17.2 120 39.8 118 -0.95 104 -11.6 110
Louisiana Tech 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 3.1% -23.2 123 12.0 124 35.1 109 -2.90 126 -8.8 100
Florida International 1-11 0.8 (-0.2) 2.6% -24.2 124 10.8 126 35.0 107 -0.11 73 -21.9 126
Miami (Ohio) 0-12 0.2 (0.2) 2.5% -24.4 125 11.8 125 36.2 112 0.08 64 -16.6 120
New Mexico State 2-10 1.6 (-0.4) 1.3% -27.9 126 20.4 114 48.3 126 -1.68 117 -17.0 122