Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/12/15

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): A simple schedule measure based on average S&P+ ratings and normal distributions.
  • Weighted S&P+ rating: This is an attempt to measure how a team was playing at the end of a given season, with extra weight given to the most recent games. It is limited in power by small sample sizes, but it is useful in determining which teams finished strong and which derived most of their good (or bad) final ratings from early-season play.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Ohio State 14-1 12.8 (-1.2) 98.7% 26.2 1 45.5 1 19.5 14 0.3 54
Alabama 12-2 12.3 (0.3) 98.4% 25.2 2 40.9 7 16.1 5 0.5 47
Auburn 8-5 8.8 (-0.2) 97.4% 23.0 3 43.7 3 21.7 24 1.0 28
Georgia 10-3 10.4 (0.4) 96.4% 21.2 4 41.2 6 19.9 16 -0.1 67
Oregon 13-2 12.9 (-0.1) 96.0% 20.7 5 45.0 2 24.5 39 0.1 57
Ole Miss 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 95.6% 20.2 6 31.8 43 12.2 2 0.6 41
TCU 12-1 11.4 (-0.6) 95.2% 19.8 7 38.0 13 19.6 15 1.4 9
Arkansas 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 94.3% 18.8 8 36.4 22 16.9 7 -0.7 90
Mississippi State 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 93.6% 18.2 9 40.5 8 21.5 22 -0.8 93
Michigan State 11-2 9.9 (-1.1) 92.5% 17.2 10 40.0 10 22.2 26 -0.6 88
UCLA 10-3 8.2 (-1.8) 91.6% 16.5 11 39.1 11 23.3 32 0.7 35
Baylor 11-2 10.6 (-0.4) 91.5% 16.4 12 42.4 5 25.8 44 -0.1 69
Clemson 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 89.9% 15.3 13 27.5 76 12.2 1 0.0 62
Stanford 8-5 9.4 (1.4) 89.8% 15.3 14 30.5 54 15.5 4 0.3 50
Oklahoma 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 89.6% 15.2 15 37.6 17 23.4 33 1.0 29
Georgia Tech 11-3 10.1 (-0.9) 89.4% 15.0 16 43.5 4 27.9 66 -0.5 80
Florida State 13-1 9.5 (-3.5) 88.9% 14.8 17 37.6 16 24.4 38 1.5 5
Wisconsin 11-3 10.7 (0.7) 88.3% 14.4 18 35.7 26 21.4 21 0.1 60
USC 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 87.6% 14.0 19 37.4 18 24.1 37 0.8 34
LSU 8-5 7.3 (-0.7) 86.2% 13.2 20 30.0 58 17.6 9 0.9 32
Miami-FL 6-7 7.1 (1.1) 85.5% 12.9 21 34.2 34 21.9 25 0.6 40
Marshall 13-1 12.5 (-0.5) 84.7% 12.5 22 38.9 12 27.8 64 1.3 11
Louisville 9-4 9.5 (0.5) 84.4% 12.4 23 31.7 45 18.9 12 -0.4 75
Florida 7-5 8.0 (1.0) 84.4% 12.4 24 27.8 74 16.8 6 1.3 10
Arizona State 10-3 9.7 (-0.3) 83.1% 11.8 25 36.0 24 25.0 41 0.8 33
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Texas A&M 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 83.0% 11.7 26 37.6 15 27.5 63 1.6 1
Kansas State 9-4 8.3 (-0.7) 83.0% 11.7 27 35.9 25 25.5 42 1.2 19
Missouri 11-3 9.3 (-1.7) 81.5% 11.1 28 30.0 59 20.1 17 1.2 22
Boise State 12-2 11.0 (-1.0) 81.5% 11.1 29 37.7 14 26.2 47 -0.4 76
Tennessee 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 81.4% 11.0 30 30.9 51 20.4 18 0.5 46
Notre Dame 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 80.9% 10.8 31 36.8 21 25.0 40 -1.0 105
Nebraska 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 76.4% 9.1 32 35.0 29 26.2 48 0.3 53
Utah 9-4 7.2 (-1.8) 74.9% 8.5 33 29.9 60 23.0 29 1.6 2
Pittsburgh 6-7 8.3 (2.3) 73.3% 8.0 34 34.9 30 28.2 67 1.3 14
Minnesota 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 72.3% 7.6 35 30.5 53 23.9 36 1.0 27
Arizona 10-4 8.0 (-2.0) 72.2% 7.6 36 34.6 32 26.3 49 -0.6 87
Texas 6-7 6.9 (0.9) 71.1% 7.3 37 24.9 90 17.4 8 -0.3 71
Virginia 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 71.0% 7.2 38 27.3 77 21.0 19 0.9 31
Memphis 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 70.9% 7.2 39 28.1 71 21.2 20 0.3 52
South Carolina 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 70.8% 7.2 40 36.2 23 29.6 77 0.6 43
Boston College 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 70.7% 7.1 41 31.0 50 23.4 34 -0.5 79
Louisiana Tech 9-5 10.1 (1.1) 70.7% 7.1 42 31.5 46 23.5 35 -0.8 99
West Virginia 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 70.1% 6.9 43 31.4 47 25.8 46 1.3 12
BYU 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 69.4% 6.7 44 32.2 41 26.5 51 1.1 26
Cincinnati 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 68.6% 6.4 45 33.8 35 27.9 65 0.6 42
NC State 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 66.7% 5.8 46 32.2 40 27.4 62 1.1 25
Penn State 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 66.5% 5.8 47 21.0 112 14.8 3 -0.4 77
Michigan 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 66.4% 5.8 48 25.1 89 19.5 13 0.2 56
Virginia Tech 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 63.7% 4.9 49 24.3 94 18.0 10 -1.4 119
Air Force 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 61.4% 4.3 50 30.1 57 27.4 61 1.5 4
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Maryland 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 59.7% 3.7 51 28.2 70 25.5 43 1.1 24
Colorado State 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 57.9% 3.2 52 34.5 33 31.8 95 0.6 44
Kentucky 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 56.4% 2.8 53 27.9 73 26.3 50 1.2 18
Georgia Southern 9-3 9.4 (0.4) 56.3% 2.8 54 35.6 27 31.9 96 -0.9 102
UL-Lafayette 9-4 8.6 (-0.4) 55.6% 2.6 55 30.6 52 29.3 75 1.3 17
Duke 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 55.5% 2.5 56 28.5 69 27.4 60 1.5 6
Utah State 10-4 11.0 (1.0) 54.5% 2.3 57 25.5 85 23.2 31 -0.1 66
Western Michigan 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 54.4% 2.2 58 31.9 42 30.3 82 0.6 45
Oregon State 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 52.7% 1.7 59 29.3 64 28.5 68 1.0 30
Arkansas State 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 50.8% 1.2 60 32.6 38 31.1 92 -0.3 70
Western Kentucky 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 50.5% 1.1 61 40.2 9 38.5 118 -0.6 89
Iowa 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 50.3% 1.1 62 29.0 65 26.8 56 -1.1 112
East Carolina 8-5 9.4 (1.4) 49.4% 0.8 63 31.2 48 29.3 74 -1.1 109
California 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 49.4% 0.8 64 37.0 20 35.7 113 -0.5 82
Washington 8-6 7.9 (-0.1) 48.3% 0.5 65 26.0 81 26.7 55 1.3 16
Texas Tech 4-8 4.8 (0.8) 47.9% 0.4 66 37.1 19 36.8 114 0.1 59
Navy 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 47.6% 0.3 67 33.0 37 31.5 94 -1.2 114
Central Florida 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 47.4% 0.2 68 23.6 99 22.6 27 -0.8 96
Northwestern 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 46.2% -0.1 69 23.5 100 23.0 30 -0.6 85
Toledo 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 45.2% -0.4 70 34.8 31 34.7 103 -0.4 78
North Carolina 6-7 4.9 (-1.1) 45.2% -0.4 71 35.4 28 35.2 110 -0.5 83
San Diego State 7-6 8.6 (1.6) 45.0% -0.4 72 25.6 83 26.7 54 0.6 38
Rutgers 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 44.0% -0.7 73 30.4 56 30.7 85 -0.4 73
UAB 6-6 5.7 (-0.3) 43.7% -0.8 74 28.7 67 31.0 90 1.6 3
Syracuse 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 43.1% -1.0 75 20.7 113 21.6 23 0.0 65
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Indiana 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 42.9% -1.0 76 29.4 63 30.1 80 -0.4 72
Purdue 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 42.4% -1.2 77 24.7 91 27.1 58 1.2 21
Rice 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 41.0% -1.6 78 29.7 61 30.2 81 -1.1 106
Illinois 6-7 5.1 (-0.9) 40.8% -1.7 79 28.6 68 30.3 83 0.0 64
Colorado 2-10 3.6 (1.6) 40.6% -1.7 80 32.3 39 35.2 109 1.3 15
Temple 6-6 6.6 (0.6) 40.4% -1.8 81 18.0 121 18.4 11 -1.3 118
Oklahoma State 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 40.3% -1.8 82 27.0 78 29.5 76 0.7 36
Washington State 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 40.2% -1.8 83 33.2 36 33.6 101 -1.4 120
Nevada 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 37.1% -2.7 84 28.7 66 31.0 91 -0.4 74
UTEP 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 36.9% -2.8 85 25.8 82 28.6 71 0.0 63
Northern Illinois 11-3 9.3 (-1.7) 32.8% -4.0 86 27.6 75 30.8 86 -0.8 101
Houston 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 32.8% -4.0 87 24.3 95 27.2 59 -1.1 111
Middle Tennessee 6-6 5.7 (-0.3) 31.7% -4.4 88 30.4 55 33.5 100 -1.3 115
South Alabama 6-7 6.4 (0.4) 29.0% -5.3 89 22.9 103 28.6 70 0.5 48
Texas State 7-5 6.5 (-0.5) 27.3% -5.8 90 29.6 62 35.5 111 0.1 61
Central Michigan 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 26.6% -6.1 91 25.2 88 30.6 84 -0.7 91
Appalachian State 7-5 7.1 (0.1) 26.6% -6.1 92 26.5 79 31.0 89 -1.5 123
UL-Monroe 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 25.6% -6.4 93 20.3 114 26.9 57 0.2 55
South Florida 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 22.3% -7.6 94 21.1 111 30.0 79 1.2 20
Kansas 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 21.4% -8.0 95 21.9 108 28.6 69 -1.3 117
New Mexico 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 20.7% -8.2 96 31.0 49 38.4 117 -0.8 97
Bowling Green 8-6 5.3 (-2.7) 20.1% -8.5 97 26.4 80 35.6 112 0.7 37
Tulane 3-9 3.5 (0.5) 19.9% -8.5 98 18.9 117 25.8 45 -1.6 128
Old Dominion 6-6 5.3 (-0.7) 18.9% -9.0 99 31.7 44 39.1 122 -1.5 122
Iowa State 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 18.4% -9.2 100 28.0 72 37.6 115 0.4 49
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Akron 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 16.9% -9.8 101 19.3 116 29.0 73 -0.1 68
UTSA 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 16.3% -10.1 102 15.1 126 26.7 53 1.5 7
Ball State 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 15.5% -10.5 103 23.0 102 34.9 105 1.4 8
Fresno State 6-8 6.0 (0.0) 15.5% -10.5 104 24.4 92 34.0 102 -0.9 104
San Jose State 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 15.3% -10.6 105 22.0 107 31.0 88 -1.6 127
Florida Atlantic 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 15.2% -10.6 106 25.3 86 35.1 107 -0.8 95
Wake Forest 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 14.8% -10.8 107 11.0 128 22.9 28 1.1 23
Southern Miss 3-9 2.7 (-0.3) 14.8% -10.8 108 21.6 109 32.5 97 0.1 58
Florida International 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 14.4% -11.0 109 16.4 124 26.6 52 -0.8 100
Vanderbilt 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 13.6% -11.4 110 18.3 118 29.0 72 -0.8 94
Wyoming 4-8 2.8 (-1.2) 12.8% -11.8 111 23.8 97 35.1 106 -0.6 84
Miami-OH 2-10 3.3 (1.3) 11.3% -12.7 112 23.6 98 34.8 104 -1.5 121
Ohio 6-6 4.7 (-1.3) 10.7% -13.0 113 19.6 115 31.5 93 -1.1 107
Kent State 2-9 3.8 (1.8) 10.1% -13.4 114 18.2 119 30.8 87 -0.7 92
UNLV 2-11 2.8 (0.8) 9.0% -14.2 115 24.3 93 37.8 116 -0.6 86
North Texas 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 8.7% -14.3 116 17.4 122 33.0 98 1.3 13
Idaho 1-10 1.9 (0.9) 8.7% -14.4 117 25.6 84 39.4 123 -0.5 81
Hawaii 4-9 2.7 (-1.3) 8.2% -14.7 118 18.1 120 33.5 99 0.6 39
Tulsa 2-10 1.9 (-0.1) 8.1% -14.8 119 25.2 87 38.8 119 -1.3 116
Connecticut 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 6.2% -16.3 120 14.4 127 30.0 78 -0.8 98
Buffalo 5-6 5.4 (0.4) 5.9% -16.7 121 24.1 96 39.7 124 -1.1 108
Troy 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 5.1% -17.5 122 22.3 106 38.9 120 -0.9 103
Massachusetts 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 4.7% -17.9 123 22.6 104 39.0 121 -1.6 125
Georgia State 1-11 1.7 (0.7) 4.0% -18.8 124 22.6 105 41.7 127 0.3 51
Army 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 3.1% -20.0 125 21.4 110 40.3 126 -1.1 113
New Mexico State 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 3.0% -20.2 126 23.3 101 41.9 128 -1.6 126
SMU 1-11 1.2 (0.2) 2.4% -21.3 127 15.5 125 35.2 108 -1.6 124
Eastern Michigan 2-10 1.7 (-0.3) 1.2% -24.4 128 16.4 123 39.7 125 -1.1 110