Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2006 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, DEFENSE

through games of 1/8/07

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an defense allows on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 LSU 146.2 130.8 4 123.8 8 139.0 3 114.2 25 145.2 2 162.7 1 -2.150 1
2 TCU 141.5 132.9 2 138.5 1 116.5 27 145.4 1 121.4 16 138.3 7 -1.767 5
3 Florida 139.7 130.1 5 123.1 11 154.8 2 123.2 12 145.3 1 153.3 3 -1.524 11
4 Ohio State 137.2 122.2 9 126.0 6 117.6 25 125.7 8 124.3 11 148.5 4 -1.739 6
5 Michigan 136.9 131.2 3 123.4 10 156.8 1 131.6 5 142.9 3 134.5 9 -0.835 37
6 Virginia Tech 134.5 134.4 1 129.2 3 132.6 6 130.3 7 133.4 5 124.0 18 -1.344 13
7 Louisville 134.5 111.6 24 112.3 23 108.8 37 102.0 53 123.7 12 156.0 2 -1.957 3
8 Wisconsin 130.7 121.4 11 111.1 26 137.5 4 111.0 27 127.7 8 128.7 11 -1.713 7
9 USC 130.2 120.8 14 136.7 2 103.8 46 123.5 11 122.8 13 141.7 6 -1.454 12
10 Oklahoma 130.1 122.0 10 126.2 5 122.5 18 132.7 4 122.1 14 142.2 5 -1.227 14
11 Rutgers 130.1 127.1 6 128.3 4 125.2 11 136.2 2 118.2 19 126.0 14 -1.189 16
12 Boise State 128.0 115.2 19 111.4 25 123.0 17 122.7 14 112.3 31 136.0 8 -1.923 4
13 Penn State 127.0 123.6 7 123.6 9 125.5 10 119.7 18 127.5 9 121.8 19 -0.728 45
14 Boston College 123.0 116.7 17 114.7 16 121.8 22 120.4 15 116.6 23 127.0 13 -1.084 21
15 Clemson 121.8 114.7 21 106.8 38 124.9 12 107.8 38 115.8 24 127.3 12 -1.660 8
16 Arkansas 121.2 119.7 15 114.4 17 128.9 8 105.7 42 134.2 4 130.2 10 -1.025 25
17 Georgia 120.3 117.1 16 110.7 29 124.4 14 106.0 41 121.8 15 119.7 24 -0.919 33
18 BYU 119.3 109.1 33 103.0 51 110.6 33 109.6 32 104.3 45 124.4 16 -1.643 9
19 Georgia Tech 119.3 121.2 12 115.2 15 132.2 7 124.3 10 121.1 17 116.6 28 -0.832 38
20 South Florida 119.2 123.4 8 125.9 7 124.2 15 120.0 17 131.4 6 114.7 31 -0.929 31
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Tennessee 117.9 108.6 35 109.4 31 120.8 23 110.7 29 113.2 26 125.7 15 -0.988 27
22 Cincinnati 117.2 114.9 20 109.8 30 136.9 5 107.9 37 128.5 7 119.2 25 -0.418 67
23 Nebraska 116.6 112.2 23 118.3 12 101.2 54 117.0 20 110.8 34 120.8 22 -1.072 22
24 Miami 115.8 120.8 13 117.1 14 122.5 20 131.5 6 112.5 29 111.6 39 -0.731 44
25 Florida State 114.6 112.3 22 111.1 28 110.4 34 122.9 13 105.2 40 121.7 20 -1.115 19
26 Nevada 114.6 110.8 28 113.0 20 105.2 43 106.3 39 114.2 25 112.7 37 -1.211 15
27 Texas 114.2 108.9 34 105.7 40 116.4 29 135.5 3 99.9 56 116.9 27 -1.014 26
28 UCLA 114.1 111.2 25 108.7 34 122.5 19 116.9 21 110.8 33 116.0 30 -0.583 56
29 Alabama 113.6 109.7 32 108.5 35 124.6 13 110.5 30 113.2 27 118.2 26 -0.524 60
30 Auburn 112.9 107.6 37 111.1 27 103.0 50 103.2 49 111.9 32 114.0 35 -0.782 41
31 Southern Miss 111.0 110.9 27 105.5 41 119.4 24 101.6 55 117.0 21 108.0 47 -0.716 47
32 Wyoming 110.7 115.8 18 109.3 32 122.4 21 104.8 44 124.4 10 107.0 49 -0.791 40
33 Missouri 110.3 110.1 31 112.0 24 98.2 70 108.8 35 104.7 42 108.8 45 -1.031 24
34 West Virginia 110.2 99.5 64 101.2 57 97.2 72 117.5 19 93.0 81 121.4 21 -1.611 10
35 Iowa 109.4 111.1 26 118.2 13 100.9 57 120.3 16 105.2 39 111.9 38 -0.622 53
36 East Carolina 109.2 105.4 45 102.9 53 109.9 35 104.7 45 104.6 43 110.7 40 -0.582 57
37 South Carolina 108.8 99.7 61 103.4 47 99.8 63 100.2 61 101.6 50 120.7 23 -1.152 18
38 Arizona 108.7 110.8 29 113.7 19 114.1 30 114.5 24 112.5 30 114.4 32 -0.333 75
39 Oregon State 108.2 106.3 41 103.9 44 116.4 28 97.0 71 116.7 22 112.9 36 -0.734 43
40 Hawaii 107.9 96.7 76 96.5 73 93.3 85 109.1 34 87.0 94 124.3 17 -1.968 2
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 California 107.5 101.5 54 103.7 45 99.9 62 110.3 31 96.9 66 116.1 29 -1.054 23
42 Kansas State 106.9 106.4 40 102.8 54 125.9 9 99.4 64 118.0 20 106.6 50 -0.351 71
43 Texas A&M 106.4 99.5 62 95.5 76 112.6 31 99.9 63 96.9 65 109.7 42 -0.803 39
44 Virginia 106.2 110.1 30 112.3 22 103.6 48 105.0 43 110.5 35 102.5 58 -0.378 69
45 Tulsa 106.0 107.8 36 98.6 64 123.1 16 94.2 78 113.0 28 104.8 55 -0.962 30
46 Texas Tech 105.8 106.2 42 107.1 37 106.8 40 100.2 62 110.0 36 110.7 40 -1.099 20
47 Wake Forest 105.6 101.1 57 103.0 52 92.5 89 108.6 36 93.7 79 108.6 46 -0.688 48
48 Oregon 105.6 103.5 48 100.8 58 111.1 32 87.6 102 119.9 18 114.2 33 -0.979 29
49 Arizona State 105.5 105.5 44 109.1 33 102.6 51 109.6 33 104.5 44 104.6 56 -0.465 63
50 Oklahoma State 105.0 103.1 50 105.1 42 99.3 67 102.9 50 100.3 55 109.2 44 -0.839 35
51 Notre Dame 104.8 98.5 67 99.3 60 99.1 69 106.3 40 92.4 82 114.1 34 -0.864 34
52 New Mexico 104.2 105.0 46 103.0 50 107.0 39 97.0 70 108.5 37 101.5 59 -0.257 81
53 Kansas 103.4 100.9 58 102.4 55 94.6 80 100.7 60 99.2 58 101.5 60 -0.532 59
54 Colorado 102.2 106.7 38 113.9 18 95.9 74 114.9 23 99.5 57 96.4 73 +0.008 95
55 Houston 102.0 98.4 68 97.9 66 94.9 79 93.7 83 97.9 64 109.6 43 -1.153 17
56 Illinois 101.9 106.6 39 106.4 39 105.1 44 115.0 22 98.5 61 106.1 52 -0.727 46
57 Pittsburgh 101.9 100.2 60 100.4 59 99.3 68 103.5 48 98.2 63 105.7 53 -0.837 36
58 Utah 101.8 99.4 65 96.3 74 100.9 56 110.8 28 90.5 86 99.5 64 -0.366 70
59 Ohio 101.2 102.7 51 103.4 48 93.4 84 94.5 77 105.1 41 92.7 81 -0.497 61
60 Mississippi State 100.9 104.6 47 112.6 21 99.5 66 124.6 9 94.7 77 106.4 51 -0.028 93
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 Washington State 100.8 101.2 56 99.0 62 103.8 47 103.8 47 99.2 59 105.1 54 -0.415 68
62 Western Michigan 100.3 99.5 63 92.2 88 99.6 65 98.7 67 90.5 85 98.2 68 -0.926 32
63 N.C. State 98.4 103.3 49 98.2 65 116.7 26 102.5 51 100.9 51 101.4 61 -0.166 86
64 Middle Tennessee 97.4 100.3 59 93.0 85 105.3 41 101.7 54 95.3 71 97.1 71 -0.426 66
65 Washington 97.4 98.0 71 97.1 70 101.0 55 101.1 59 98.6 60 100.8 63 -0.066 89
66 Fresno State 97.0 101.7 53 103.5 46 105.2 42 101.3 58 105.5 38 94.0 79 +0.069 100
67 Central Michigan 96.7 96.6 77 96.9 72 80.1 113 89.2 100 90.2 87 92.6 82 -0.685 49
68 Toledo 96.6 101.5 55 103.2 49 95.3 76 98.2 68 98.3 62 90.3 94 -0.558 58
69 Vanderbilt 96.2 96.3 80 97.1 71 91.3 90 93.9 80 94.8 75 99.0 65 -0.643 51
70 Connecticut 95.8 102.2 52 107.1 36 100.7 59 104.6 46 102.3 49 96.3 74 -0.103 88
71 Ole Miss 95.7 98.0 70 94.7 79 107.5 38 93.2 84 100.8 52 95.2 76 +0.255 107
72 SMU 95.6 97.5 73 91.4 90 102.6 52 96.4 72 91.5 83 90.8 89 -0.315 76
73 Minnesota 95.6 92.3 93 92.8 86 93.1 86 95.2 75 88.3 92 101.1 62 -0.257 80
74 Syracuse 95.5 93.9 84 94.6 80 104.2 45 92.3 88 100.5 53 103.1 57 +0.169 103
75 Michigan State 95.4 98.1 69 102.0 56 95.8 75 112.7 26 93.3 80 96.2 75 -0.268 79
76 UTEP 95.4 96.5 78 97.5 67 92.8 88 92.2 90 96.3 69 94.6 78 -0.347 72
77 Florida International 94.9 105.6 43 104.8 43 96.2 73 101.6 56 102.8 48 90.3 93 +0.009 96
78 San Jose State 94.7 97.9 72 94.2 81 95.0 78 93.8 81 91.4 84 91.2 86 -0.744 42
79 Maryland 94.7 90.8 94 89.1 97 94.0 81 92.9 85 86.0 96 97.0 72 -0.336 74
80 Northern Illinois 94.2 92.3 92 91.0 91 79.5 114 95.5 74 80.0 108 91.1 87 -0.673 50
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 Navy 93.9 90.6 95 85.1 107 90.4 92 90.5 95 82.7 100 93.4 80 -0.980 28
82 Kentucky 93.8 84.2 115 90.1 95 81.7 110 81.2 115 89.9 88 107.6 48 -0.175 84
83 Tulane 93.4 96.5 79 95.1 77 99.6 64 98.9 66 95.0 74 97.4 70 -0.040 92
84 Purdue 93.3 92.5 91 98.9 63 84.4 103 91.3 92 95.5 70 99.0 66 -0.286 77
85 Northwestern 92.9 93.5 87 92.5 87 97.5 71 99.4 65 86.8 95 98.9 67 +0.002 94
86 Troy 92.5 93.7 86 93.2 84 78.6 115 89.9 98 85.8 97 87.5 98 -0.489 62
87 Akron 92.2 96.0 82 93.4 83 84.8 102 102.2 52 78.6 111 86.0 102 -0.634 52
88 Kent State 92.1 99.1 66 94.8 78 85.3 99 87.5 103 95.2 73 83.7 110 -0.429 65
89 Central Florida 91.4 93.7 85 95.8 75 92.8 87 90.2 96 100.3 54 88.8 95 +0.403 110
90 Colorado State 91.3 96.9 74 90.8 93 101.3 53 92.3 89 94.7 76 86.0 103 +0.051 99
91 Baylor 91.3 93.4 88 97.4 68 85.6 98 93.9 79 94.4 78 91.8 84 +0.018 97
92 Indiana 91.2 90.6 96 85.9 106 109.1 36 101.4 57 83.9 99 97.6 69 +0.207 105
93 Marshall 90.8 89.2 100 88.0 102 87.9 95 84.2 110 89.2 90 92.1 83 -0.273 78
94 Air Force 89.6 85.2 112 83.4 112 86.7 96 90.1 97 74.9 117 91.2 85 +0.154 102
95 Florida Atlantic 89.4 96.9 75 99.2 61 82.0 109 97.7 69 87.3 93 87.1 99 -0.043 91
96 UAB 89.4 89.1 102 85.1 108 93.7 82 84.5 109 88.5 91 90.7 91 +0.023 98
97 San Diego State 89.4 94.7 83 92.2 89 95.1 77 81.8 113 104.1 46 91.0 88 +0.203 104
98 UL-Monroe 89.3 88.4 104 84.6 110 80.4 112 85.3 107 78.8 110 86.5 101 -0.585 55
99 Stanford 88.8 96.0 81 97.2 69 100.7 58 90.6 94 103.1 47 94.7 77 +0.794 116
100 Miami (Ohio) 88.4 92.6 90 90.2 94 89.8 93 82.2 112 96.7 67 85.1 106 -0.252 82
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 Memphis 88.0 87.6 107 88.6 100 83.0 105 85.7 106 82.5 101 87.7 96 -0.104 87
102 Rice 87.9 86.9 108 84.7 109 90.8 91 74.2 118 96.5 68 90.5 92 -0.046 90
103 UNLV 87.6 89.2 99 86.3 105 99.9 61 95.8 73 80.1 106 90.7 90 +0.212 106
104 Arkansas State 87.5 89.1 101 88.0 101 76.9 116 86.8 105 80.1 107 86.6 100 -0.171 85
105 Idaho 87.5 92.7 89 94.1 82 89.5 94 88.9 101 95.3 72 84.4 109 +0.482 111
106 UL-Lafayette 87.4 89.7 97 88.0 103 82.1 108 92.5 87 80.5 105 85.1 106 -0.341 73
107 Army 87.1 89.5 98 83.1 113 103.1 49 92.9 86 77.2 115 86.0 103 +0.135 101
108 Ball State 86.6 84.5 114 80.6 115 82.5 107 85.1 108 76.4 116 85.6 105 -0.449 64
109 New Mexico State 86.3 88.5 103 81.1 114 100.6 60 95.0 76 74.4 118 82.0 112 -0.602 54
110 Eastern Michigan 84.6 88.0 106 86.6 104 84.9 101 89.4 99 79.7 109 80.2 115 +0.495 112
111 North Texas 84.6 88.3 105 90.9 92 74.8 117 90.8 93 77.7 113 81.0 114 +0.290 108
112 Iowa State 83.7 86.5 110 89.1 98 82.9 106 91.7 91 81.8 102 85.0 108 +0.556 113
113 North Carolina 82.0 86.8 109 84.0 111 93.5 83 83.6 111 89.6 89 82.5 111 +0.718 115
114 Bowling Green 81.9 85.2 111 79.9 117 81.3 111 76.9 117 81.5 103 78.0 118 -0.187 83
115 Utah State 80.3 84.5 113 89.3 96 86.0 97 93.7 82 80.8 104 87.6 97 +1.399 119
116 Duke 79.6 82.9 116 89.0 99 71.3 118 86.9 104 78.5 112 81.1 113 +0.674 114
117 Louisiana Tech 79.6 80.4 117 78.9 119 84.0 104 81.3 114 77.4 114 77.8 119 +0.948 117
118 Buffalo 77.3 75.9 119 80.5 116 64.2 119 74.0 119 70.1 119 78.6 117 +0.300 109
119 Temple 76.9 79.3 118 79.5 118 85.2 100 77.6 116 83.9 98 79.0 116 +1.035 118