Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2007 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, DEFENSE

through games of 1/7/08

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an defense allows on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 Ohio State 148.5 145.2 1 139.1 1 158.4 1 143.9 3 148.0 1 132.0 9 -1.282 14
2 USC 140.8 135.6 2 137.0 2 130.7 4 156.3 1 119.6 14 146.1 5 -1.565 7
3 LSU 135.2 122.2 6 129.7 4 111.6 31 121.6 10 126.8 8 163.3 2 -1.657 6
4 Kansas 132.4 120.2 9 114.1 16 127.8 6 125.0 6 117.6 21 148.0 4 -2.104 1
5 West Virginia 131.5 121.2 8 119.1 10 125.5 11 108.8 37 132.7 2 154.5 3 -1.823 3
6 Virginia Tech 130.6 128.5 4 128.1 5 123.3 14 122.6 8 130.5 4 130.8 12 -0.966 29
7 Oklahoma 129.4 116.3 14 115.7 13 126.5 10 114.9 21 123.0 12 163.9 1 -1.840 2
8 South Florida 127.0 121.3 7 120.0 9 127.6 9 115.7 20 130.2 5 146.1 5 -1.265 18
9 Oregon State 126.1 129.6 3 131.8 3 125.0 12 150.7 2 118.2 19 129.1 15 -0.964 30
10 UCLA 123.2 123.6 5 121.2 7 133.0 3 134.9 5 118.8 17 126.1 18 -0.513 60
11 Clemson 123.2 114.7 17 113.2 20 109.7 37 110.0 34 113.5 25 129.7 13 -1.362 11
12 Auburn 122.1 119.3 11 118.4 11 120.7 19 120.1 12 119.0 16 129.2 14 -0.893 34
13 Penn State 121.3 116.1 15 118.4 12 99.4 61 121.9 9 104.9 48 123.0 25 -1.281 15
14 Michigan 119.9 117.4 12 108.1 40 154.3 2 116.7 16 126.8 9 127.3 17 -0.820 38
15 BYU 119.0 114.2 20 110.5 32 110.2 36 110.2 33 112.1 32 120.1 27 -1.128 22
16 Utah 118.6 115.6 16 112.1 27 119.3 21 104.8 48 131.5 3 115.0 36 -0.874 35
17 Missouri 118.4 110.3 30 113.8 17 106.6 48 111.6 30 111.1 35 138.7 8 -1.393 10
18 Cincinnati 118.4 110.8 29 111.5 29 100.5 59 112.8 27 104.3 51 123.5 23 -1.278 17
19 Georgia 117.1 112.1 26 111.9 28 122.8 15 105.1 47 124.4 10 131.0 11 -1.279 16
20 Central Florida 116.4 112.5 24 108.2 38 121.8 16 101.7 55 121.7 13 131.6 10 -1.231 19
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Texas 116.1 114.2 19 115.0 14 115.8 24 124.1 7 109.9 37 121.2 26 -1.065 25
22 Oregon 115.5 107.8 40 110.2 33 109.3 40 117.0 14 103.9 54 140.0 7 -1.228 20
23 Pittsburgh 115.4 116.6 13 114.5 15 127.6 8 116.2 19 119.4 15 118.3 31 -0.701 49
24 Illinois 115.2 109.7 32 110.0 34 109.6 38 107.5 40 112.8 28 123.4 24 -0.943 31
25 TCU 115.0 119.5 10 122.6 6 109.4 39 113.2 26 124.2 11 109.4 46 -0.763 42
26 Rutgers 114.7 110.3 31 111.2 30 107.8 46 95.6 73 128.5 7 125.3 20 -1.413 9
27 New Mexico 113.2 113.1 23 113.0 22 106.4 49 114.2 23 105.2 47 106.3 53 -0.646 52
28 Boise State 113.0 106.8 43 102.3 55 108.9 41 99.1 60 107.9 41 116.5 33 -1.485 8
29 Boston College 112.5 111.8 27 112.4 24 101.8 56 139.0 4 96.4 76 111.2 40 -0.982 28
30 Arizona State 112.0 109.3 33 104.9 50 128.6 5 110.2 32 110.7 36 123.6 22 -1.212 21
31 Texas Tech 111.9 106.0 46 107.7 41 97.7 67 93.3 80 118.6 18 125.5 19 -1.358 12
32 Arkansas 110.1 108.6 36 106.1 49 110.5 35 100.0 59 113.4 26 120.0 28 -1.290 13
33 South Carolina 109.7 108.8 35 112.3 25 113.8 27 101.6 56 129.1 6 117.2 32 -0.685 51
34 Connecticut 109.6 111.1 28 113.3 19 99.6 60 98.8 63 117.5 22 111.0 41 -0.856 36
35 Tennessee 109.5 105.6 48 109.3 35 108.6 42 121.2 11 98.7 70 124.5 21 -0.724 46
36 Mississippi State 109.4 113.4 21 112.5 23 117.7 23 116.7 15 112.1 31 116.4 34 -0.345 72
37 Wake Forest 108.9 114.4 18 120.6 8 99.1 64 109.6 35 118.0 20 101.0 66 -0.452 65
38 Florida 108.5 98.9 66 103.9 51 92.5 84 116.3 18 90.3 89 128.4 16 -1.740 4
39 Iowa 108.5 113.1 22 108.2 39 121.2 17 116.6 17 108.9 39 102.5 62 -0.470 64
40 Florida State 108.4 109.0 34 107.3 44 112.7 28 113.5 24 109.0 38 107.1 51 -0.298 81
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 Hawaii 108.4 106.8 42 97.1 73 114.8 26 95.8 72 111.2 34 115.1 35 -1.698 5
42 Troy 108.0 104.6 54 97.6 68 127.8 7 97.5 67 117.1 23 112.0 38 -0.784 41
43 Kentucky 107.7 102.5 58 110.6 31 93.2 80 97.5 68 111.3 33 119.5 29 -0.935 32
44 Purdue 106.7 108.0 39 103.1 52 115.0 25 106.6 43 107.2 43 109.9 45 -1.034 26
45 Alabama 106.4 106.1 45 102.3 54 107.9 45 107.1 41 102.2 58 110.2 44 -0.729 44
46 Virginia 106.3 108.5 38 112.3 26 94.6 77 105.7 45 105.9 46 108.4 48 -0.819 39
47 Texas A&M 106.0 105.0 51 106.9 45 111.3 33 108.2 38 107.7 42 112.2 37 -0.339 73
48 Arizona 105.9 108.5 37 113.8 18 102.4 55 114.3 22 106.6 44 105.9 55 -0.362 69
49 Wyoming 105.8 112.3 25 107.4 43 121.0 18 117.9 13 106.6 45 99.0 71 -0.307 77
50 California 105.7 105.1 50 108.3 37 103.2 53 110.3 31 103.0 55 118.7 30 -0.909 33
51 Michigan State 105.3 103.1 57 106.7 46 92.0 85 99.0 61 104.0 52 108.2 49 -0.747 43
52 East Carolina 104.8 104.9 52 102.1 56 112.1 30 111.8 29 101.9 60 106.1 54 -0.517 58
53 Southern Miss 104.6 104.7 53 107.5 42 96.5 70 103.9 51 102.5 56 101.4 64 -0.727 45
54 Colorado 104.5 103.6 56 98.9 63 119.6 20 106.8 42 104.8 49 110.3 43 -0.352 70
55 Vanderbilt 103.9 105.6 47 101.3 58 123.4 13 103.2 53 112.7 30 103.9 59 -0.350 71
56 Miami 103.5 103.8 55 101.6 57 105.9 50 99.0 62 104.6 50 105.5 56 -0.474 63
57 Indiana 103.1 102.0 60 106.7 48 93.3 79 104.5 50 99.8 65 101.4 64 -0.722 47
58 Kansas State 102.5 105.5 49 106.7 47 107.1 47 112.2 28 102.1 59 99.9 69 -0.554 55
59 Notre Dame 102.4 107.1 41 113.2 21 99.1 63 104.7 49 113.7 24 106.9 52 -0.070 94
60 Wisconsin 102.2 98.1 70 92.3 90 111.3 32 95.9 71 99.5 66 104.1 58 -0.548 56
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 Louisiana Tech 102.2 106.4 44 108.8 36 105.4 51 113.5 25 104.0 53 99.0 71 -0.092 92
62 Fresno State 101.1 102.1 59 102.8 53 98.8 65 87.6 102 112.7 29 96.5 77 -0.513 59
63 Georgia Tech 100.7 100.7 62 97.2 71 96.5 69 98.2 65 96.7 74 96.5 76 -0.498 61
64 Houston 100.6 100.0 63 94.6 83 111.0 34 107.9 39 91.5 87 99.1 70 -1.011 27
65 Florida Atlantic 100.4 99.7 64 97.4 69 108.5 43 100.9 58 100.8 63 102.5 63 -0.635 53
66 Air Force 99.8 98.6 67 99.3 62 89.2 95 105.9 44 87.3 97 102.9 61 -1.097 24
67 Oklahoma State 99.4 93.4 85 98.2 65 90.6 88 98.2 66 91.3 88 111.9 39 -0.540 57
68 N.C. State 99.3 101.8 61 94.8 82 118.1 22 90.4 95 113.0 27 104.4 57 -0.183 89
69 Maryland 99.2 96.2 75 98.0 66 91.3 87 92.5 85 99.4 67 103.6 60 -0.692 50
70 Western Michigan 98.9 98.1 69 92.4 88 104.3 52 92.6 83 99.2 68 97.1 75 -0.332 74
71 Tulsa 97.8 93.0 90 97.2 72 85.3 108 94.6 77 90.3 90 108.5 47 -1.128 23
72 Washington 97.3 94.4 82 99.7 61 95.2 73 94.4 78 100.2 64 110.8 42 -0.365 68
73 North Carolina 96.8 96.2 76 95.6 79 90.1 91 91.5 91 94.3 79 94.5 81 -0.302 79
74 Ole Miss 96.8 95.7 78 96.2 77 97.1 68 94.7 76 99.2 69 107.3 50 -0.047 96
75 Arkansas State 96.2 99.3 65 101.2 59 88.5 97 98.5 64 93.3 81 91.2 83 -0.216 85
76 Iowa State 95.7 98.0 71 97.3 70 112.1 29 105.6 46 95.7 77 100.0 68 +0.195 107
77 Miami (Ohio) 95.3 98.3 68 96.7 75 92.6 83 85.4 107 102.2 57 86.4 97 -0.231 84
78 Temple 94.7 97.6 72 91.7 93 100.9 58 93.6 79 94.1 80 90.0 89 -0.302 80
79 Ball State 94.4 96.2 74 95.7 78 98.0 66 96.9 69 97.7 71 91.2 84 -0.397 66
80 UL-Monroe 94.1 96.7 73 94.9 81 95.3 72 108.9 36 83.9 105 90.9 85 -0.320 76
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 Nevada 93.4 94.9 80 92.2 91 96.2 71 84.6 110 97.6 73 89.7 90 -0.719 48
82 Nebraska 93.3 93.3 88 100.5 60 87.3 100 90.7 93 101.4 61 97.5 73 +0.042 100
83 UNLV 92.9 94.5 81 91.1 95 108.2 44 83.4 112 108.5 40 95.4 80 -0.036 98
84 Washington State 92.8 94.4 83 98.5 64 89.8 92 103.5 52 88.2 94 96.4 79 -0.288 82
85 Stanford 92.5 92.1 94 89.5 100 102.6 54 92.3 86 92.2 84 96.4 78 +0.075 101
86 Middle Tennessee 92.3 95.9 77 96.3 76 90.6 89 90.5 94 97.6 72 87.8 96 -0.141 91
87 Louisville 92.0 87.0 107 89.0 103 82.1 112 92.2 87 81.4 114 100.6 67 -0.814 40
88 Baylor 91.9 93.4 86 92.9 86 101.4 57 94.9 75 92.6 82 97.2 74 +0.105 103
89 Akron 91.6 91.8 96 89.3 102 87.8 99 89.0 98 87.4 96 87.9 94 -0.198 87
90 Kent State 91.6 95.0 79 91.0 96 94.8 74 102.5 54 82.1 113 84.8 102 -0.215 86
91 Army 91.3 93.0 91 93.3 85 94.5 78 94.9 74 88.6 93 90.5 87 +0.271 109
92 Ohio 90.9 93.1 89 91.3 94 82.5 111 87.1 103 89.5 92 82.8 106 -0.569 54
93 Northwestern 90.9 92.1 95 95.0 80 83.4 110 100.9 57 82.7 112 88.7 92 -0.089 93
94 San Jose State 90.8 94.3 84 96.8 74 87.2 101 83.0 114 101.1 62 87.9 94 +0.086 102
95 UTEP 90.7 92.1 93 91.8 92 93.2 81 89.2 97 91.5 86 88.2 93 -0.305 78
96 Colorado State 90.3 89.3 103 84.7 111 99.4 62 80.2 116 96.7 75 92.1 82 -0.050 95
97 Bowling Green 89.9 90.7 97 90.9 99 85.5 107 84.7 109 92.0 85 85.1 100 -0.330 75
98 Rice 89.7 90.4 99 92.3 89 86.6 103 92.0 89 86.1 100 84.5 103 +0.179 105
99 SMU 89.5 93.4 87 97.8 67 86.6 102 90.2 96 94.4 78 81.7 108 +0.399 114
100 Tulane 88.9 90.1 100 87.6 106 86.0 104 93.3 82 83.0 110 83.4 104 -0.197 88
Rk Offense Def.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 Marshall 88.7 89.6 101 91.0 98 85.5 106 92.6 84 85.8 101 90.4 88 +0.261 108
102 Buffalo 87.6 89.0 104 94.0 84 73.6 118 85.8 105 85.2 102 83.3 105 -0.286 83
103 Central Michigan 87.5 86.7 109 86.4 107 80.5 115 96.4 70 75.8 119 85.5 99 -0.497 62
104 Northern Illinois 86.9 92.6 92 92.5 87 89.6 93 92.0 90 89.9 91 76.5 117 +0.292 111
105 Memphis 86.1 86.2 110 89.4 101 71.3 119 87.9 101 78.3 118 81.0 109 -0.370 67
106 New Mexico State 86.1 85.8 112 80.0 118 90.2 90 85.4 108 78.4 117 86.0 98 -0.176 90
107 Idaho 85.8 89.5 102 88.8 104 92.0 86 91.4 92 83.4 107 80.4 111 +0.329 113
108 Duke 84.8 86.1 111 83.3 115 89.4 94 88.9 99 83.2 109 90.8 86 -0.011 99
109 Minnesota 84.5 83.9 116 84.0 113 84.8 109 83.9 111 83.4 108 85.0 101 +0.283 110
110 Syracuse 84.2 86.9 108 88.3 105 88.7 96 93.3 81 83.9 104 89.6 91 +0.767 119
111 Florida International 84.1 87.8 105 91.0 97 80.4 116 92.1 88 83.9 106 82.6 107 +0.538 118
112 UL-Lafayette 83.6 90.5 98 86.4 108 93.0 82 86.9 104 87.9 95 76.2 119 +0.181 106
113 Toledo 83.4 84.2 114 84.1 112 81.1 114 80.8 115 80.9 115 77.1 115 -0.040 97
114 North Texas 83.1 87.1 106 83.9 114 94.7 76 88.0 100 86.6 99 76.3 118 +0.522 117
115 UAB 82.5 84.0 115 82.5 116 85.6 105 78.0 118 86.7 98 77.9 114 +0.831 120
116 Utah State 82.2 85.4 113 85.1 110 87.9 98 85.7 106 84.1 103 80.5 110 +0.480 116
117 Eastern Michigan 81.1 82.9 117 81.4 117 77.5 117 75.5 119 82.7 111 76.5 116 +0.134 104
118 Navy 80.9 76.1 119 77.9 119 61.1 120 78.5 117 65.8 120 80.4 111 -0.855 37
119 San Diego State 79.3 79.2 118 77.8 120 81.1 113 74.6 120 79.9 116 79.2 113 +0.443 115