Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 9/13/14

NOTE: For the first seven weeks of the season, only the overall Offensive S&P+ rating is adjusted for opponent. All other data shared below is raw and unadjusted.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • IsoPPP: An explosiveness measure derived from determining the equivalent point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game. NOTE: IsoPPP is in use for the first time in 2014. It looks at only the per-play value of a team's successful plays (as defined by the Success Rate definition above); its goal is to separate altogether the efficiency component from the explosiveness component. This results in a new equation below. Success Rate now accounts for 80% of S&P below, while IsoPPP accounts for just 20%. For more information about IsoPPP, click here.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position. It is factored in after seven weeks.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
Oregon 153.1 1 50.0% 11 1.33 6 0.667 2 1.092 2 1.247 6 1.269 1 0.871 23
Florida State 138.1 2 48.6% 14 0.98 58 0.585 22 0.882 24 1.030 28 1.045 17 0.765 36
Baylor 137.7 3 41.6% 54 1.93 1 0.719 1 0.716 55 1.707 1 1.105 6 1.519 1
Alabama 134.7 4 50.3% 10 0.99 57 0.600 18 0.895 22 1.139 12 1.084 11 0.742 47
Texas A&M 134.5 5 53.4% 4 1.14 23 0.655 3 0.967 17 1.250 5 1.173 4 1.035 7
Arkansas 132.0 6 54.2% 2 1.10 27 0.654 4 1.203 1 0.976 40 1.161 5 1.071 5
Auburn 130.5 7 53.7% 3 1.00 52 0.629 7 1.019 6 1.179 9 1.003 24 1.294 2
Oklahoma 130.3 8 47.4% 17 1.15 20 0.609 12 0.988 10 1.051 23 1.020 21 1.018 8
Michigan State 127.5 9 45.5% 26 1.08 31 0.580 25 0.739 52 1.142 11 0.987 27 0.847 27
Arizona State 126.9 10 48.6% 13 1.23 16 0.636 6 1.092 3 1.080 20 1.214 3 0.752 42
Georgia Tech 126.9 11 48.4% 16 1.07 32 0.600 17 0.938 18 1.192 8 0.985 28 1.059 6
Ohio State 122.3 12 40.8% 59 1.08 30 0.543 43 0.713 56 1.006 34 0.824 66 0.902 19
Georgia 121.5 13 42.9% 46 1.06 33 0.555 34 0.976 14 0.762 81 0.938 40 0.750 43
Mississippi State 120.8 14 50.6% 8 1.03 43 0.611 10 0.982 13 1.086 19 1.061 12 0.925 12
Kansas State 120.5 15 52.1% 7 0.93 71 0.603 14 1.030 5 0.981 38 1.095 9 0.734 50
Arizona 119.3 16 44.7% 30 1.08 29 0.574 28 0.814 36 1.062 21 1.032 19 0.656 63
N.C. State 118.0 17 52.1% 6 0.92 74 0.602 15 0.972 16 1.034 27 1.032 18 0.915 15
Oklahoma State 117.9 18 35.9% 89 1.25 13 0.538 49 0.685 64 0.973 41 0.786 76 0.854 26
South Carolina 117.8 19 42.9% 46 0.93 72 0.529 60 0.667 69 0.979 39 0.833 62 0.813 31
Miami 116.2 20 37.1% 81 1.46 2 0.589 20 0.756 50 1.060 22 0.907 44 0.924 13
TCU 116.1 21 52.2% 5 0.86 94 0.590 19 1.011 8 0.948 44 1.104 7 0.592 75
Michigan 115.7 22 48.5% 15 0.92 77 0.571 29 0.869 26 1.015 31 1.055 16 0.614 72
Bowling Green 115.6 23 43.8% 38 0.91 84 0.531 55 0.900 20 0.790 72 0.873 56 0.723 51
Ole Miss 114.4 24 45.7% 24 1.09 28 0.583 24 0.602 91 1.211 7 0.992 26 0.865 24
Missouri 114.3 25 47.0% 18 1.01 50 0.578 27 0.761 48 1.162 10 0.983 30 0.831 28
Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
Pittsburgh 114.3 26 49.4% 12 0.95 66 0.585 23 1.015 7 0.828 65 1.058 14 0.605 74
Texas Tech 113.4 27 46.9% 19 0.98 60 0.570 30 0.798 40 1.015 30 0.946 38 0.883 22
San Jose State 112.5 28 43.8% 37 1.00 53 0.550 38 0.698 60 1.118 14 1.019 22 0.567 83
Louisville 111.8 29 41.1% 57 0.92 78 0.512 69 0.847 30 0.737 90 0.947 37 0.439 116
Washington 111.8 30 35.1% 96 1.26 10 0.533 54 0.765 46 0.850 62 0.814 69 0.747 45
Wisconsin 111.3 31 33.9% 99 1.11 25 0.493 77 0.672 68 0.775 76 0.814 68 0.524 103
Florida 111.2 32 43.9% 36 0.92 75 0.536 51 0.924 19 0.768 80 0.826 65 0.890 21
Stanford 110.7 33 45.0% 28 0.97 61 0.555 35 0.663 71 1.111 15 0.882 51 0.910 17
Duke 110.7 34 44.3% 32 1.01 49 0.557 32 0.836 33 0.936 47 0.959 34 0.762 38
Toledo 110.7 35 42.0% 51 0.95 67 0.525 61 0.778 44 0.852 61 0.875 54 0.702 57
Marshall 110.3 36 42.2% 49 1.33 7 0.604 13 0.847 29 1.129 13 1.086 10 0.700 58
Florida Atlantic 109.9 37 36.9% 83 1.26 11 0.547 41 0.622 86 1.047 24 0.966 33 0.558 86
Notre Dame 109.0 38 45.2% 27 0.96 64 0.553 36 0.710 57 1.039 25 0.919 43 0.798 34
Oregon State 108.6 39 39.3% 66 1.04 42 0.522 65 0.751 51 0.841 63 0.887 49 0.559 84
Colorado State 107.4 40 43.7% 39 0.94 68 0.538 48 0.689 62 0.990 36 0.890 48 0.756 41
Utah 107.3 41 45.9% 23 1.30 8 0.627 8 0.839 32 1.311 4 1.098 8 0.961 10
Central Florida 107.1 42 26.0% 123 1.22 18 0.452 100 0.447 120 0.742 86 0.591 115 0.553 90
Rutgers 106.8 43 43.0% 43 1.00 55 0.543 42 0.724 53 1.025 29 0.967 32 0.544 92
Indiana 106.6 44 50.6% 9 0.91 83 0.586 21 1.000 9 0.904 53 1.027 20 0.776 35
Clemson 106.6 45 36.0% 86 1.04 39 0.496 76 0.582 95 0.891 56 0.832 63 0.447 114
Texas State 106.5 46 54.4% 1 0.88 87 0.612 9 1.040 4 1.006 33 1.224 2 0.466 113
BYU 106.1 47 46.2% 22 0.80 112 0.529 59 0.886 23 0.761 82 0.840 60 0.811 32
Memphis 105.4 48 40.0% 63 1.05 34 0.531 58 0.853 28 0.788 73 0.922 42 0.630 69
North Carolina 105.3 49 43.9% 34 0.93 70 0.538 50 0.763 47 0.925 48 0.893 47 0.704 56
USC 105.1 50 38.3% 75 0.93 73 0.492 78 0.550 102 0.915 50 0.627 110 0.939 11
Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
UL-Lafayette 104.8 51 43.1% 42 0.79 113 0.502 74 0.822 34 0.711 95 0.837 61 0.571 82
Boise State 104.6 52 41.6% 53 0.88 90 0.508 71 0.680 66 0.892 55 0.794 74 0.744 46
East Carolina 104.5 53 41.0% 58 1.03 46 0.533 53 0.651 75 0.905 52 0.953 35 0.584 78
Nebraska 104.5 54 38.9% 70 1.34 5 0.580 26 0.878 25 0.950 43 0.777 78 1.157 3
West Virginia 103.5 55 43.0% 44 0.90 85 0.525 63 0.586 93 0.999 35 0.857 59 0.713 53
LSU 103.3 56 38.3% 76 1.18 19 0.543 44 0.694 61 1.091 16 0.868 57 0.764 37
Middle Tennessee 102.8 57 42.0% 51 1.03 47 0.541 45 0.799 39 0.944 45 0.950 36 0.531 100
Western Kentucky 102.7 58 45.7% 24 0.95 65 0.556 33 0.608 89 1.037 26 0.884 50 0.909 18
Boston College 102.7 59 44.6% 31 0.92 76 0.541 46 0.987 11 0.597 113 0.981 31 0.488 110
San Diego State 101.9 60 44.3% 33 0.99 56 0.553 37 0.856 27 0.908 51 0.942 39 0.736 49
UCLA 101.3 61 37.7% 79 0.86 95 0.474 86 0.659 73 0.740 88 0.799 71 0.470 112
Cincinnati 100.9 62 46.5% 21 1.35 4 0.642 5 0.595 92 1.360 3 1.061 13 1.154 4
Western Michigan 100.3 63 43.4% 41 1.27 9 0.601 16 0.986 12 0.984 37 1.056 15 0.823 30
Washington State 100.0 64 40.0% 63 1.03 48 0.525 62 0.468 116 0.901 54 0.810 70 0.810 33
Navy 98.3 65 43.9% 35 1.03 44 0.557 31 0.896 21 0.855 59 0.900 46 0.858 25
Kentucky 98.1 66 39.2% 68 1.04 38 0.522 64 0.774 45 0.823 66 0.820 67 0.757 40
Illinois 97.8 67 37.4% 80 1.04 41 0.506 72 0.491 114 0.922 49 0.677 99 0.918 14
Iowa State 97.0 68 38.9% 70 0.74 118 0.460 97 0.561 99 0.776 75 0.690 94 0.645 65
Rice 96.4 69 32.4% 106 0.84 99 0.427 114 0.491 113 0.759 83 0.532 121 0.748 44
Syracuse 96.3 70 38.9% 70 0.81 110 0.474 87 0.705 58 0.704 99 0.678 98 0.758 39
Georgia Southern 95.8 71 42.1% 50 1.36 3 0.609 11 0.819 35 1.402 2 1.005 23 0.972 9
Northern Illinois 95.5 72 41.1% 56 0.89 86 0.508 70 0.644 81 1.091 16 0.726 87 0.914 16
Virginia Tech 95.4 73 35.4% 91 0.91 80 0.465 91 0.571 98 0.758 84 0.686 97 0.655 64
Nevada 95.0 74 42.9% 46 0.73 120 0.489 80 0.647 77 0.870 57 0.796 72 0.581 79
Iowa 95.0 75 38.4% 74 0.78 114 0.464 93 0.647 77 0.716 93 0.720 91 0.611 73
Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
New Mexico 94.7 76 35.9% 88 1.23 15 0.534 52 0.800 38 0.815 67 0.937 41 0.517 107
Tulsa 94.7 77 35.3% 93 0.88 89 0.458 98 0.546 104 0.733 91 0.735 84 0.531 101
UAB 94.2 78 40.2% 62 1.14 22 0.549 39 0.801 37 0.941 46 0.984 29 0.578 81
UTEP 93.8 79 46.7% 20 0.87 92 0.547 40 0.974 15 0.645 107 1.001 25 0.532 99
California 93.6 80 40.0% 63 1.10 26 0.540 47 0.586 94 1.091 18 0.903 45 0.677 60
Penn State 93.0 81 40.4% 60 0.83 101 0.489 79 0.525 110 0.863 58 0.764 80 0.677 60
Air Force 92.7 82 44.7% 29 0.87 93 0.531 56 0.794 41 0.960 42 0.876 53 0.681 59
Purdue 91.8 83 35.3% 95 0.82 107 0.446 104 0.701 59 0.595 114 0.763 81 0.349 122
Arkansas State 91.8 84 37.0% 82 0.83 102 0.461 94 0.620 88 0.738 89 0.734 85 0.542 95
Texas 91.1 85 36.0% 87 0.83 100 0.454 99 0.632 83 0.683 103 0.724 90 0.527 102
Northwestern 91.1 86 27.6% 117 0.94 69 0.408 118 0.388 124 0.626 110 0.523 122 0.555 88
South Alabama 90.9 87 35.5% 90 0.72 121 0.428 113 0.546 105 0.686 101 0.644 107 0.524 104
Maryland 90.6 88 35.4% 92 0.97 62 0.477 84 0.686 63 0.708 98 0.778 77 0.521 105
Army 89.8 89 33.7% 102 1.03 45 0.475 85 0.645 79 1.008 32 0.729 86 0.590 76
Vanderbilt 89.4 90 34.4% 97 0.71 122 0.416 116 0.558 101 0.626 109 0.724 89 0.248 127
Troy 88.3 91 40.3% 61 0.82 104 0.487 81 0.760 49 0.710 97 0.759 82 0.676 62
Fresno State 88.1 92 23.7% 125 0.76 116 0.341 125 0.461 117 0.389 126 0.520 123 0.267 125
Idaho 88.0 93 34.0% 98 1.00 51 0.473 88 0.495 112 0.809 70 0.580 116 0.829 29
Ball State 87.8 94 38.2% 77 0.69 124 0.443 105 0.607 90 0.684 102 0.726 88 0.473 111
Colorado 87.5 95 39.1% 69 0.82 103 0.478 83 0.625 84 0.785 74 0.714 92 0.712 54
UNLV 87.0 96 35.3% 93 0.82 106 0.447 103 0.577 96 0.713 94 0.688 95 0.552 91
Louisiana Tech 86.9 97 33.9% 100 1.25 14 0.521 66 0.660 72 0.834 64 0.830 64 0.642 66
Minnesota 86.8 98 33.3% 104 0.91 81 0.448 101 0.638 82 0.631 108 0.656 103 0.586 77
Georgia State 86.8 99 41.4% 55 1.00 54 0.531 57 0.789 42 0.854 60 0.796 73 0.895 20
Buffalo 86.1 100 39.2% 67 0.82 105 0.478 82 0.623 85 0.811 68 0.705 93 0.741 48
Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
Temple 86.0 101 36.8% 84 0.74 119 0.443 106 0.560 100 0.702 100 0.643 108 0.638 67
Ohio 85.7 102 33.6% 103 0.81 109 0.431 111 0.499 111 0.756 85 0.649 105 0.513 109
Tulane 85.3 103 33.7% 101 1.23 17 0.516 68 0.683 65 0.806 71 0.772 79 0.715 52
Tennessee 85.1 104 31.4% 112 0.98 59 0.447 102 0.575 97 0.655 105 0.666 101 0.553 89
Houston 84.4 105 26.5% 121 1.12 24 0.435 107 0.532 108 0.573 118 0.749 83 0.299 123
Old Dominion 84.3 106 42.9% 45 0.87 91 0.518 67 0.840 31 0.773 77 0.874 55 0.626 70
Appalachian State 82.5 107 36.7% 85 1.05 35 0.504 73 0.782 43 0.732 92 0.877 52 0.445 115
Central Michigan 82.2 108 38.8% 73 0.82 108 0.473 89 0.651 76 0.771 79 0.792 75 0.515 108
UTSA 82.1 109 31.2% 113 0.80 111 0.410 117 0.548 103 0.578 117 0.575 117 0.539 97
Akron 81.8 110 31.4% 111 1.05 37 0.461 95 0.472 115 0.741 87 0.650 104 0.633 68
New Mexico State 81.2 111 43.5% 40 0.76 115 0.500 75 0.719 54 0.811 69 0.857 58 0.541 96
Virginia 80.7 112 25.5% 124 1.15 21 0.434 109 0.454 119 0.648 106 0.507 124 0.625 71
South Florida 79.1 113 26.6% 120 1.26 12 0.464 92 0.645 80 0.556 120 0.669 100 0.518 106
Massachusetts 79.0 114 32.6% 105 1.05 36 0.470 90 0.526 109 0.771 78 0.646 106 0.706 55
Utah State 78.8 115 29.4% 115 0.91 82 0.417 115 0.537 107 0.581 116 0.550 119 0.579 80
Southern Miss 78.6 116 26.3% 122 0.85 97 0.381 124 0.460 118 0.511 122 0.549 120 0.400 119
UL-Monroe 77.5 117 32.3% 108 0.85 98 0.429 112 0.657 74 0.552 121 0.622 111 0.555 87
Connecticut 76.8 118 29.1% 116 0.76 117 0.384 123 0.441 121 0.567 119 0.567 118 0.423 117
Kansas 76.5 119 31.6% 109 1.04 40 0.461 96 0.667 70 0.614 112 0.686 96 0.559 85
Wyoming 75.4 120 31.6% 110 0.91 79 0.435 108 0.537 106 0.668 104 0.635 109 0.544 93
Hawaii 72.6 121 32.4% 107 0.71 123 0.400 120 0.621 87 0.488 123 0.614 112 0.413 118
Eastern Michigan 69.0 122 37.9% 78 0.52 127 0.406 119 0.678 67 0.401 125 0.662 102 0.359 121
SMU 68.3 123 18.5% 128 0.38 128 0.224 128 0.399 123 0.219 128 0.336 128 0.155 128
North Texas 68.0 124 20.2% 127 0.68 125 0.297 126 0.324 126 0.359 127 0.397 126 0.259 126
Kent State 66.6 125 27.2% 119 0.86 96 0.389 122 0.288 127 0.619 111 0.476 125 0.543 94
Florida International 65.5 126 29.7% 114 0.97 63 0.432 110 0.437 122 0.711 95 0.612 113 0.536 98
Miami (Ohio) 63.0 127 27.3% 118 0.88 88 0.395 121 0.387 125 0.590 115 0.594 114 0.379 120
Wake Forest 59.6 128 22.5% 126 0.57 126 0.294 127 0.176 128 0.433 124 0.395 127 0.297 124