Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2013 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/6/14

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 Florida State 148.4 140.0 1 130.9 4 165.7 1 121.9 13 156.7 1 156.8 1 2.16 1
2 Ohio State 140.8 137.1 2 142.4 1 124.2 18 161.6 1 121.6 17 144.5 3 1.08 6
3 Baylor 140.2 131.8 6 131.5 3 137.0 12 117.1 19 152.7 2 148.6 2 1.33 4
4 Texas A&M 139.2 135.6 3 131.6 2 153.8 3 130.8 4 143.1 4 142.7 4 0.27 33
5 Miami 133.2 134.8 5 130.2 5 154.7 2 125.9 10 150.3 3 131.6 9 0.21 36
6 Auburn 133.1 128.4 7 128.8 7 139.6 9 139.6 2 123.1 16 137.7 6 0.70 12
7 Oregon 133.0 135.6 4 130.1 6 148.1 5 137.2 3 136.9 7 130.3 11 1.22 5
8 Georgia 131.2 121.7 12 121.0 13 132.6 13 107.2 47 140.9 5 140.7 5 0.38 27
9 Central Florida 130.1 126.2 9 116.8 21 152.4 4 126.9 7 128.3 13 134.0 7 0.59 15
10 Alabama 128.7 126.4 8 123.2 10 142.0 7 127.8 6 128.6 12 131.0 10 1.36 3
11 South Carolina 126.8 120.0 15 119.1 17 129.2 15 107.5 46 140.8 6 133.7 8 0.83 10
12 Clemson 126.0 122.1 11 124.2 9 120.6 23 113.3 31 132.8 10 129.8 12 0.70 11
13 LSU 125.5 123.7 10 117.0 20 147.1 6 117.9 17 135.5 8 127.3 14 0.62 14
14 Arizona State 124.6 120.5 14 117.6 18 137.5 11 123.2 12 125.9 14 128.7 13 0.18 39
15 Kansas State 122.1 121.2 13 121.2 12 120.2 25 117.0 20 128.9 11 123.0 19 0.21 35
16 Indiana 121.5 119.6 16 120.2 14 125.1 17 126.6 8 117.9 21 123.4 18 -0.40 74
17 Stanford 121.4 119.2 17 113.6 29 141.6 8 115.0 28 135.0 9 123.7 17 0.45 22
18 Louisville 119.7 117.3 20 117.0 19 113.7 37 108.6 41 121.3 18 122.1 21 1.37 2
19 Missouri 119.4 114.2 24 110.5 38 129.9 14 115.5 25 117.2 23 124.6 15 0.69 13
20 UCLA 118.7 115.1 23 116.1 23 119.4 27 116.2 21 119.9 19 122.2 20 0.34 28
21 Georgia Tech 118.1 115.1 22 115.7 24 117.4 28 126.2 9 106.0 48 121.0 23 0.52 20
22 Oklahoma 117.3 110.7 33 112.9 32 111.7 40 115.2 26 111.6 32 124.0 16 0.18 42
23 Texas Tech 117.2 112.6 28 103.0 58 138.8 10 100.3 66 116.4 26 121.7 22 0.12 45
24 Wisconsin 116.2 118.1 18 119.5 16 115.2 34 129.3 5 108.4 42 114.2 30 0.99 7
25 East Carolina 116.1 113.2 27 109.1 39 115.0 35 101.3 61 113.8 29 119.0 24 0.44 23
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
26 Marshall 114.6 112.2 31 105.7 51 119.9 26 103.2 59 114.6 27 117.0 25 0.90 8
27 Notre Dame 114.1 117.5 19 125.6 8 107.4 46 116.0 22 123.1 15 110.8 36 0.18 40
28 Fresno State 113.6 114.1 25 114.4 27 109.9 44 112.4 35 108.2 43 113.0 32 0.57 17
29 San Jose State 113.2 112.3 30 114.2 28 107.8 45 107.0 48 114.0 28 114.1 31 -0.22 63
30 Bowling Green 112.8 109.0 38 99.6 66 123.7 19 103.4 58 109.2 37 116.6 26 0.87 9
31 Northern Illinois 112.6 113.7 26 108.8 40 115.4 33 117.6 18 105.1 51 111.5 34 0.58 16
32 Ball State 112.4 109.9 34 102.5 60 117.4 29 95.5 84 112.2 31 114.8 29 0.48 21
33 Oregon State 111.8 115.9 21 122.9 11 110.2 43 108.1 42 117.2 22 107.7 43 -0.31 69
34 Washington 111.5 108.1 40 102.8 59 126.0 16 112.9 33 109.2 38 114.9 28 0.56 18
35 North Carolina 110.4 107.9 42 111.5 37 105.2 49 99.0 70 118.4 20 112.9 33 0.17 43
36 Oklahoma State 110.2 112.4 29 108.6 41 123.3 20 108.0 43 117.1 24 108.0 41 0.38 26
37 Illinois 109.5 111.3 32 116.5 22 103.3 54 112.7 34 110.6 34 107.7 42 -0.41 75
38 Toledo 109.4 108.8 39 105.8 50 116.6 30 115.5 24 103.9 56 110.1 39 -0.18 59
39 Duke 108.7 109.9 35 114.7 26 101.0 58 110.2 39 113.1 30 107.5 44 0.21 37
40 Boise State 108.7 106.6 44 107.1 43 104.0 53 107.6 45 104.8 53 110.7 37 0.30 32
41 Navy 108.5 101.4 59 106.4 48 81.5 109 108.8 40 85.8 99 115.7 27 0.22 34
42 Arizona 108.3 109.5 37 115.5 25 98.0 63 120.3 14 103.8 58 107.0 45 0.32 30
43 Boston College 108.2 108.1 41 119.6 15 92.9 81 113.7 30 108.5 41 108.4 40 -0.28 67
44 Michigan 108.2 104.9 50 103.0 57 115.8 32 97.6 74 117.1 25 111.4 35 -0.29 68
45 Nevada 105.9 101.3 60 97.6 73 113.2 38 101.2 62 104.2 54 110.6 38 -0.64 86
46 Nebraska 104.6 106.5 46 107.1 44 106.8 48 116.0 23 101.5 60 102.7 49 0.04 48
47 Ole Miss 104.5 102.6 58 97.0 76 121.8 22 104.7 54 105.3 50 106.4 47 0.42 24
48 BYU 104.0 106.3 47 112.0 34 97.4 65 118.6 16 97.7 67 101.7 51 0.07 47
49 Texas 103.6 100.5 63 104.7 54 98.9 62 99.3 68 106.0 47 106.7 46 -0.16 58
50 Cincinnati 103.0 105.4 49 96.2 78 120.5 24 95.6 83 107.7 44 100.5 55 0.41 25
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
51 Washington State 102.7 104.0 53 98.7 70 123.0 21 106.7 50 100.3 64 101.4 52 -0.54 80
52 Northwestern 102.5 106.1 48 111.5 36 93.0 80 107.0 49 109.7 35 98.9 60 -0.18 60
53 Utah 102.4 103.6 55 113.1 30 95.6 73 104.4 57 108.9 40 101.2 53 -0.14 56
54 Maryland 102.3 109.5 36 113.0 31 104.2 52 110.4 38 110.9 33 95.0 66 -0.53 79
55 New Mexico 102.2 104.4 51 101.3 61 110.9 41 123.4 11 84.3 105 100.0 57 -1.07 107
56 Mississippi State 102.2 103.8 54 105.1 53 110.2 42 105.4 52 107.6 46 100.6 54 0.00 50
57 UL-Lafayette 101.9 104.4 52 104.2 55 96.0 71 100.9 64 107.6 45 99.3 59 0.11 46
58 Houston 101.5 103.6 56 106.2 49 102.0 55 107.8 44 101.1 62 99.5 58 -0.01 51
59 USC 101.4 107.4 43 111.6 35 105.1 50 111.3 37 109.5 36 95.3 65 0.14 44
60 South Alabama 101.3 100.6 62 100.8 62 94.8 75 94.2 86 103.2 59 102.1 50 -0.09 54
61 UTSA 101.2 106.6 45 106.9 45 104.4 51 118.8 15 94.3 80 95.8 64 0.01 49
62 Pittsburgh 100.7 98.7 71 103.3 56 96.0 70 100.0 67 101.3 61 102.7 48 -0.35 71
63 Troy 98.7 99.2 69 91.4 97 114.1 36 86.6 105 104.1 55 98.2 62 -0.42 76
64 Michigan State 98.3 96.1 79 88.2 102 116.4 31 97.1 77 96.9 70 100.4 56 0.53 19
65 Colorado State 98.2 97.8 74 99.9 63 87.6 94 101.1 63 92.2 84 98.6 61 0.20 38
66 SMU 97.0 99.7 67 106.8 46 85.6 97 98.2 73 95.3 76 94.4 67 -0.55 81
67 Arkansas 96.8 101.0 61 99.1 68 113.0 39 115.1 27 95.8 73 92.6 72 -0.65 88
68 Western Kentucky 96.5 100.2 64 96.0 79 100.9 59 98.3 71 95.5 75 92.7 70 0.18 41
69 Temple 96.3 102.6 57 106.8 47 89.7 88 112.2 36 93.4 81 90.0 77 -0.47 78
70 Iowa 95.8 99.0 70 99.8 64 100.4 61 99.3 69 103.8 57 92.6 71 -0.04 53
71 Vanderbilt 95.3 92.5 92 98.4 72 77.4 114 87.6 103 97.2 68 98.1 63 -0.27 66
72 North Texas 94.3 100.2 65 99.6 65 97.8 64 92.7 88 105.0 52 88.3 81 0.32 31
73 Rice 94.0 94.3 84 93.2 91 94.7 77 97.0 78 91.5 86 93.6 68 -0.26 65
74 Middle Tennessee 93.9 99.3 68 98.8 69 97.0 67 104.7 55 92.0 85 88.6 80 -0.21 62
75 Syracuse 93.9 98.5 72 107.3 42 84.6 101 113.2 32 87.9 93 89.2 78 -0.55 82
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
76 Tennessee 93.7 99.9 66 112.8 33 82.2 108 113.8 29 89.2 91 87.6 85 -0.91 102
77 Minnesota 93.7 95.6 80 93.7 88 101.4 57 98.2 72 98.1 66 91.8 73 -0.14 57
78 Wyoming 93.5 96.6 76 96.8 77 91.6 85 105.5 51 85.9 98 90.4 76 -0.88 98
79 Ohio 93.5 96.3 78 98.7 71 86.6 95 78.0 117 109.1 39 90.6 75 -0.64 87
80 Air Force 93.1 93.1 88 92.3 94 89.4 89 104.5 56 83.6 108 93.1 69 -1.16 111
81 Kentucky 92.9 98.4 73 105.3 52 89.0 91 104.8 53 94.9 78 87.4 87 -0.87 97
82 UAB 92.2 96.9 75 93.3 90 101.9 56 97.4 75 94.7 79 87.5 86 -1.51 116
83 UNLV 91.4 94.7 81 95.4 81 89.8 87 91.5 93 95.0 77 88.0 84 -0.34 70
84 Penn State 91.2 93.5 87 93.4 89 93.9 78 90.9 98 96.7 71 88.9 79 -0.03 52
85 Arkansas State 91.0 93.8 85 95.3 83 88.0 93 96.6 79 90.8 88 88.2 83 -0.36 72
86 Utah State 90.8 90.4 95 89.5 100 95.0 74 96.2 81 86.8 96 91.2 74 0.32 29
87 Army 90.7 93.1 89 94.7 85 85.2 98 102.0 60 74.8 118 88.2 82 -0.71 90
88 Iowa State 90.4 96.3 77 99.6 67 94.8 76 100.5 65 95.8 74 84.4 96 -1.14 109
89 California 89.9 93.5 86 95.3 82 97.2 66 86.0 107 97.1 69 86.2 89 -1.20 113
90 Rutgers 89.3 92.8 90 86.6 108 107.3 47 92.1 89 92.9 83 85.8 90 -0.90 101
91 Virginia Tech 89.0 92.5 93 95.4 80 92.4 83 87.6 104 99.5 65 85.5 93 -0.20 61
92 N.C. State 88.8 92.5 91 94.7 86 93.3 79 97.4 76 91.4 87 85.1 94 -0.93 103
93 TCU 88.8 91.8 94 94.6 87 89.3 90 85.3 109 96.5 72 85.7 91 -0.57 83
94 Colorado 88.7 94.3 83 97.0 75 92.8 82 79.9 115 105.9 49 83.0 99 -1.07 108
95 Florida Atlantic 88.0 90.2 96 88.1 103 91.1 86 91.4 94 87.3 94 85.7 92 -0.09 55
96 Buffalo 87.1 87.1 103 87.1 106 84.1 104 83.2 113 88.2 92 87.0 88 -0.25 64
97 West Virginia 86.8 94.6 82 97.2 74 92.1 84 85.6 108 100.3 63 79.0 103 -0.82 95
98 Kent State 86.8 89.5 97 85.8 110 96.7 69 91.3 95 86.3 97 84.1 97 -0.75 92
99 Tulsa 86.2 88.4 99 92.3 95 84.3 102 96.4 80 84.4 104 83.9 98 -0.99 105
100 Florida 86.1 87.4 100 92.9 92 84.7 100 88.8 101 93.1 82 84.8 95 -0.61 84
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 UTEP 85.0 87.1 102 88.8 101 80.6 110 91.1 97 81.7 111 82.9 100 -1.48 115
102 Memphis 84.2 86.8 104 92.1 96 76.3 115 93.2 87 82.0 110 81.6 101 -0.78 94
103 Hawaii 82.6 88.8 98 95.0 84 79.1 111 89.3 100 87.3 95 76.4 109 -0.99 106
104 Tulane 82.4 87.3 101 86.8 107 85.9 96 88.3 102 85.2 100 77.6 107 -0.38 73
105 UL-Monroe 82.4 86.4 107 81.0 116 95.8 72 85.0 111 83.7 107 78.4 106 -0.44 77
106 Central Michigan 82.4 86.1 108 78.5 120 96.8 68 76.7 119 89.2 90 78.6 105 -0.77 93
107 Virginia 82.1 85.4 109 92.9 93 78.6 113 95.1 85 80.8 114 78.8 104 -0.97 104
108 San Diego State 82.0 84.4 112 86.6 109 79.0 112 82.6 114 84.4 102 79.6 102 -0.73 91
109 Eastern Michigan 80.8 86.7 106 89.7 99 75.6 117 91.6 91 79.7 115 74.9 112 -1.79 120
110 Connecticut 80.6 85.3 110 87.9 104 83.8 105 92.0 90 81.5 112 76.0 110 -0.89 100
111 Wake Forest 79.8 82.5 114 87.8 105 73.0 119 79.2 116 84.0 106 77.0 108 -0.62 85
112 New Mexico State 78.9 86.8 105 76.3 123 100.7 60 77.4 118 90.4 89 71.0 114 -1.52 117
113 Akron 78.5 81.5 116 80.3 118 84.9 99 74.9 121 84.4 103 75.4 111 -0.85 96
114 Louisiana Tech 77.9 84.2 113 79.1 119 84.2 103 95.8 82 66.8 124 71.5 113 -0.68 89
115 Purdue 75.5 85.2 111 90.6 98 83.0 107 91.3 96 85.1 101 65.7 118 -1.92 122
116 Texas State 74.7 81.4 117 83.4 115 69.8 122 86.1 106 73.2 119 68.1 116 -0.88 98
117 Idaho 74.7 80.1 119 77.4 122 88.6 92 90.8 99 72.5 120 69.3 115 -2.03 124
118 South Florida 72.9 79.5 121 80.5 117 83.2 106 85.3 110 78.2 117 66.3 117 -1.20 112
119 Southern Miss 72.8 81.9 115 84.8 113 75.9 116 74.2 122 80.9 113 63.6 120 -1.86 121
120 Western Michigan 72.1 79.8 120 84.2 114 70.3 121 76.1 120 79.6 116 64.4 119 -1.16 110
121 Kansas 71.4 81.0 118 85.7 111 74.2 118 91.5 92 71.1 121 61.8 122 -1.55 118
122 Massachusetts 69.7 76.6 123 78.5 121 71.2 120 70.1 124 82.2 109 62.8 121 -1.56 119
123 Georgia State 69.6 78.0 122 85.0 112 65.7 123 83.8 112 70.3 122 61.3 123 -1.24 114
124 Florida International 59.8 68.3 124 72.0 124 62.9 124 68.0 125 68.8 123 51.3 125 -2.15 125
125 Miami (Ohio) 58.6 64.2 125 68.7 125 53.9 125 71.4 123 55.7 125 52.9 124 -1.96 123