Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 9/27/14

NOTE: For the first seven weeks of the season, only the overall Offensive S&P+ rating is adjusted for opponent. All other data shared below is raw and unadjusted.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • IsoPPP: An explosiveness measure derived from determining the equivalent point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game. NOTE: IsoPPP is in use for the first time in 2014. It looks at only the per-play value of a team's successful plays (as defined by the Success Rate definition above); its goal is to separate altogether the efficiency component from the explosiveness component. This results in a new equation below. Success Rate now accounts for 80% of S&P below, while IsoPPP accounts for just 20%. For more information about IsoPPP, click here.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position. It is factored in after seven weeks.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
Oregon 134.3 1 53.0% 7 1.17 3 0.658 2 0.616 6 0.705 3 0.692 1 0.575 22
Mississippi State 129.3 2 51.6% 12 1.02 14 0.616 9 0.595 16 0.658 9 0.638 10 0.570 23
Michigan State 126.9 3 55.1% 5 1.08 8 0.657 4 0.591 19 0.741 2 0.660 5 0.672 2
West Virginia 126.1 4 44.9% 52 0.85 62 0.530 55 0.437 105 0.594 29 0.554 56 0.485 59
Florida State 125.0 5 46.7% 38 0.98 20 0.569 27 0.540 35 0.592 30 0.595 28 0.525 41
Alabama 123.8 6 56.0% 3 0.91 38 0.631 6 0.583 20 0.687 6 0.647 8 0.586 18
Arkansas 123.4 7 52.1% 8 0.95 31 0.607 11 0.630 3 0.564 43 0.621 12 0.588 17
Georgia 123.0 8 48.4% 25 0.94 33 0.575 21 0.613 7 0.515 75 0.603 19 0.514 43
Oklahoma 122.4 9 48.8% 22 1.04 11 0.599 13 0.611 8 0.586 34 0.622 11 0.568 24
LSU 120.2 10 44.4% 56 0.95 30 0.546 42 0.513 47 0.617 23 0.577 40 0.501 52
Auburn 120.1 11 48.5% 24 0.86 59 0.561 36 0.504 52 0.657 10 0.541 63 0.619 7
Ole Miss 118.7 12 47.8% 30 0.92 37 0.566 33 0.464 89 0.644 17 0.564 47 0.581 19
Ohio State 118.7 13 51.8% 10 0.88 50 0.592 17 0.554 31 0.647 15 0.598 23 0.592 15
USC 118.6 14 41.4% 80 0.86 60 0.504 74 0.436 106 0.560 47 0.453 117 0.595 13
Texas A&M 118.5 15 55.8% 4 1.06 10 0.658 3 0.624 4 0.680 7 0.677 3 0.613 8
Miami 118.2 16 45.7% 43 1.01 16 0.568 30 0.513 46 0.619 22 0.569 46 0.597 12
Georgia Tech 117.4 17 52.1% 9 0.91 41 0.598 15 0.593 17 0.651 12 0.603 20 0.609 11
Baylor 117.4 18 54.2% 6 1.27 2 0.688 1 0.603 11 0.758 1 0.689 2 0.731 1
BYU 116.4 19 47.7% 32 0.79 92 0.540 46 0.558 29 0.518 73 0.554 54 0.538 37
TCU 116.1 20 57.4% 1 0.85 67 0.628 7 0.682 1 0.591 32 0.657 6 0.560 26
Florida 115.6 21 39.9% 89 0.91 42 0.501 75 0.525 38 0.488 91 0.488 104 0.595 14
South Carolina 115.6 22 44.9% 51 0.83 75 0.526 56 0.502 57 0.551 53 0.547 59 0.507 49
UCLA 115.0 23 44.5% 55 0.84 71 0.523 58 0.509 49 0.544 58 0.587 33 0.370 120
N.C. State 114.9 24 57.0% 2 0.86 61 0.627 8 0.631 2 0.627 19 0.666 4 0.527 40
Nebraska 114.4 25 50.0% 18 1.00 17 0.600 12 0.598 13 0.623 20 0.582 36 0.665 3
Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
Navy 114.0 26 49.5% 19 0.88 52 0.572 25 0.601 12 0.484 97 0.605 16 0.508 45
Notre Dame 114.0 27 51.8% 11 0.82 79 0.579 19 0.492 67 0.650 13 0.593 29 0.544 35
California 113.9 28 45.7% 44 1.17 5 0.599 14 0.494 65 0.688 5 0.595 27 0.638 5
Pittsburgh 113.7 29 50.3% 15 0.76 106 0.554 38 0.576 23 0.520 71 0.586 35 0.486 57
East Carolina 113.3 30 48.0% 29 0.96 26 0.576 20 0.572 26 0.578 39 0.596 25 0.549 28
Marshall 112.3 31 46.9% 37 1.29 1 0.633 5 0.618 5 0.654 11 0.650 7 0.609 10
Arizona State 110.9 32 50.7% 13 1.01 15 0.608 10 0.609 9 0.609 25 0.646 9 0.510 44
Boise State 110.9 33 44.9% 52 0.76 102 0.511 70 0.497 62 0.526 69 0.531 73 0.469 74
Iowa State 110.6 34 40.8% 84 0.66 122 0.459 110 0.416 119 0.491 89 0.478 109 0.413 105
Cincinnati 110.1 35 45.3% 46 1.12 6 0.586 18 0.432 112 0.672 8 0.589 31 0.610 9
Arizona 110.0 36 46.9% 36 0.96 28 0.567 32 0.522 41 0.604 27 0.612 14 0.475 68
Wisconsin 109.8 37 46.5% 40 0.96 25 0.564 34 0.574 25 0.549 55 0.595 26 0.508 46
Washington State 109.6 38 45.0% 50 0.88 51 0.536 49 0.433 111 0.563 45 0.553 58 0.504 50
Oklahoma State 109.5 39 40.2% 87 1.17 4 0.555 37 0.480 75 0.650 14 0.541 62 0.642 4
Toledo 109.4 40 49.3% 20 0.90 44 0.574 22 0.579 21 0.571 41 0.588 32 0.559 27
Washington 109.3 41 38.7% 98 0.95 32 0.500 77 0.504 54 0.503 80 0.517 82 0.480 64
Texas Tech 108.5 42 47.8% 31 0.89 45 0.561 35 0.525 37 0.582 36 0.578 39 0.539 36
Rutgers 107.8 43 48.8% 23 0.89 46 0.568 28 0.524 39 0.644 16 0.609 15 0.457 83
Louisville 107.3 44 38.5% 102 0.96 27 0.500 76 0.504 55 0.500 82 0.574 41 0.408 108
Colorado State 106.6 45 48.0% 28 0.84 69 0.553 39 0.516 45 0.580 38 0.580 37 0.485 60
Kansas State 106.5 46 50.2% 16 0.85 64 0.572 24 0.595 15 0.552 52 0.603 18 0.504 51
Central Florida 106.4 47 36.6% 111 1.03 13 0.499 78 0.422 117 0.599 28 0.536 69 0.435 98
Michigan 105.9 48 39.8% 90 0.79 93 0.477 93 0.498 61 0.460 106 0.539 64 0.391 114
Army 104.9 49 42.1% 76 0.97 22 0.531 53 0.519 43 0.592 31 0.561 49 0.489 54
Stanford 104.3 50 48.2% 27 0.81 82 0.549 41 0.467 86 0.632 18 0.571 44 0.535 38
Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
Tennessee 104.2 51 35.3% 114 0.91 40 0.465 104 0.435 107 0.487 92 0.484 105 0.460 80
Florida Atlantic 103.4 52 41.8% 77 0.91 39 0.517 63 0.473 79 0.562 46 0.557 51 0.426 100
Boston College 103.3 53 45.9% 42 0.89 48 0.545 43 0.575 24 0.484 98 0.586 34 0.439 94
Georgia Southern 103.1 54 47.4% 33 1.09 7 0.597 16 0.561 28 0.698 4 0.602 22 0.591 16
North Carolina 102.7 55 44.4% 60 0.77 98 0.509 72 0.468 84 0.540 60 0.527 76 0.481 63
Western Kentucky 102.6 56 50.6% 14 0.81 83 0.567 31 0.474 77 0.613 24 0.573 43 0.563 25
Western Michigan 102.6 57 44.8% 54 1.07 9 0.573 23 0.596 14 0.552 50 0.596 24 0.580 20
Rice 102.5 58 44.4% 57 0.82 80 0.519 60 0.508 50 0.546 57 0.508 90 0.577 21
Indiana 102.4 59 49.0% 21 0.76 107 0.543 44 0.577 22 0.497 83 0.602 21 0.409 106
Virginia 102.3 60 38.1% 104 0.83 72 0.471 97 0.451 97 0.490 90 0.489 103 0.441 92
Memphis 102.0 61 38.1% 103 0.84 70 0.473 96 0.487 70 0.459 108 0.528 75 0.377 117
Clemson 101.9 62 39.3% 94 0.98 21 0.510 71 0.380 123 0.622 21 0.475 112 0.622 6
Missouri 101.8 63 44.2% 62 0.89 47 0.531 54 0.499 58 0.566 42 0.564 48 0.465 76
Northern Illinois 101.6 64 45.1% 49 0.78 97 0.516 65 0.462 91 0.607 26 0.518 81 0.547 33
Penn State 101.5 65 42.1% 75 0.77 99 0.491 88 0.460 92 0.507 78 0.506 92 0.482 62
Maryland 101.3 66 42.1% 73 0.93 35 0.523 59 0.486 72 0.557 49 0.554 55 0.462 78
Minnesota 101.3 67 41.8% 78 0.78 95 0.491 86 0.504 53 0.461 105 0.499 98 0.474 72
Virginia Tech 101.1 68 42.8% 69 0.76 103 0.495 83 0.468 85 0.518 72 0.509 89 0.488 55
San Jose State 101.0 69 44.4% 59 0.69 118 0.494 84 0.455 95 0.531 66 0.522 77 0.451 85
Illinois 100.8 70 41.1% 83 1.04 12 0.537 48 0.494 66 0.563 44 0.536 68 0.548 31
Middle Tennessee 100.6 71 47.1% 35 0.82 78 0.541 45 0.535 36 0.552 51 0.574 42 0.474 70
San Diego State 100.6 72 50.2% 16 0.83 74 0.568 29 0.608 10 0.528 68 0.604 17 0.486 58
Texas 100.0 73 40.4% 86 0.73 112 0.470 98 0.465 87 0.475 100 0.509 87 0.437 96
Oregon State 99.8 74 44.4% 57 0.81 84 0.517 64 0.550 33 0.493 87 0.555 53 0.446 90
Duke 98.5 75 42.1% 73 0.89 49 0.514 66 0.556 30 0.486 93 0.553 57 0.446 89
Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
Syracuse 98.5 76 39.2% 96 0.80 86 0.474 95 0.478 76 0.469 102 0.472 114 0.479 66
Bowling Green 98.5 77 43.8% 64 0.87 54 0.526 57 0.542 34 0.516 74 0.537 67 0.520 42
UL-Lafayette 98.3 78 39.4% 93 0.77 100 0.468 101 0.503 56 0.453 112 0.509 88 0.398 112
Louisiana Tech 98.1 79 40.8% 85 0.93 36 0.512 69 0.489 69 0.530 67 0.559 50 0.470 73
New Mexico 98.0 80 46.7% 38 0.98 19 0.570 26 0.568 27 0.586 33 0.591 30 0.530 39
Akron 97.5 81 37.8% 108 0.83 73 0.468 100 0.446 102 0.485 95 0.508 91 0.398 113
Arkansas State 97.3 82 37.9% 107 0.76 104 0.455 112 0.444 103 0.468 104 0.475 113 0.425 101
UAB 97.3 83 41.5% 79 1.00 18 0.531 52 0.521 42 0.548 56 0.580 38 0.451 86
Buffalo 96.8 84 46.2% 41 0.81 85 0.531 51 0.482 73 0.586 35 0.532 72 0.545 34
Kentucky 96.7 85 43.0% 68 0.85 66 0.513 67 0.507 51 0.523 70 0.522 78 0.507 48
Colorado 96.5 86 43.6% 66 0.79 94 0.506 73 0.433 108 0.558 48 0.517 83 0.487 56
Utah 96.5 87 38.9% 97 0.94 34 0.499 79 0.469 83 0.531 63 0.502 96 0.548 32
Ohio 96.0 88 42.3% 72 0.87 57 0.512 68 0.496 63 0.536 62 0.520 79 0.507 47
Iowa 95.2 89 42.4% 71 0.73 113 0.485 90 0.464 88 0.508 76 0.502 94 0.459 81
Air Force 95.1 90 45.3% 45 0.78 96 0.519 62 0.499 59 0.582 37 0.545 60 0.439 95
UTEP 94.2 91 48.3% 26 0.76 105 0.539 47 0.592 18 0.433 120 0.617 13 0.368 121
Nevada 93.8 92 45.1% 48 0.68 120 0.497 81 0.472 80 0.531 65 0.542 61 0.408 107
Old Dominion 93.8 93 47.1% 34 0.87 56 0.551 40 0.552 32 0.551 54 0.556 52 0.548 29
UTSA 93.7 94 39.8% 91 0.71 114 0.460 109 0.462 90 0.458 110 0.491 102 0.415 104
Fresno State 93.5 95 39.4% 92 0.80 87 0.475 94 0.516 44 0.443 118 0.530 74 0.371 118
Tulsa 93.5 96 38.6% 100 0.79 91 0.468 102 0.441 104 0.492 88 0.491 101 0.447 87
Central Michigan 92.9 97 43.5% 67 0.75 110 0.498 80 0.459 93 0.538 61 0.535 70 0.441 93
Temple 92.8 98 44.2% 61 0.69 116 0.493 85 0.480 74 0.508 77 0.513 86 0.465 75
Purdue 92.5 99 39.9% 88 0.69 117 0.458 111 0.495 64 0.428 121 0.497 100 0.370 119
Wyoming 92.4 100 37.2% 109 0.82 81 0.462 108 0.472 81 0.450 114 0.501 97 0.379 115
Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rate Rk IsoPPP Rk S&P Rk Rushing S&P Rk Passing S&P Rk Std. Downs S&P Rk Pass. Downs S&P Rk
Tulane 92.3 101 37.9% 105 0.97 24 0.496 82 0.512 48 0.485 94 0.537 66 0.446 91
Vanderbilt 92.1 102 35.4% 113 0.64 124 0.411 122 0.426 115 0.396 124 0.475 111 0.305 126
Texas State 91.8 103 45.3% 47 0.85 65 0.532 50 0.499 60 0.576 40 0.571 45 0.491 53
South Alabama 91.1 104 41.3% 82 0.67 121 0.465 105 0.472 82 0.460 107 0.481 107 0.478 67
Troy 91.1 105 41.3% 81 0.75 108 0.481 91 0.473 78 0.494 86 0.514 85 0.458 82
Idaho 90.9 106 38.7% 99 0.80 89 0.469 99 0.425 116 0.496 85 0.477 110 0.484 61
Northwestern 90.2 107 35.2% 115 0.80 88 0.441 115 0.405 121 0.468 103 0.451 118 0.454 84
South Florida 89.9 108 33.5% 120 0.90 43 0.448 113 0.448 100 0.451 113 0.480 108 0.400 111
Georgia State 89.2 109 43.7% 65 0.85 68 0.519 61 0.491 68 0.541 59 0.520 80 0.548 30
Massachusetts 88.7 110 37.1% 110 0.96 29 0.488 89 0.419 118 0.531 64 0.502 95 0.474 71
New Mexico State 88.5 111 43.9% 63 0.70 115 0.491 87 0.487 71 0.503 79 0.533 71 0.436 97
Houston 88.0 112 34.0% 117 0.97 23 0.466 103 0.522 40 0.435 119 0.538 65 0.355 122
UNLV 87.4 113 39.2% 95 0.74 111 0.462 107 0.449 98 0.479 99 0.482 106 0.422 102
Appalachian State 85.6 114 38.6% 100 0.85 63 0.479 92 0.452 96 0.502 81 0.499 99 0.461 79
Utah State 85.5 115 34.3% 116 0.79 90 0.433 118 0.428 113 0.447 116 0.447 121 0.427 99
Miami (Ohio) 85.3 116 33.7% 118 0.87 53 0.445 114 0.407 120 0.470 101 0.447 120 0.447 88
Florida International 85.1 117 32.3% 123 0.82 77 0.423 121 0.345 124 0.496 84 0.447 119 0.475 69
UL-Monroe 85.1 118 35.7% 112 0.77 101 0.439 116 0.433 110 0.448 115 0.471 115 0.406 109
Kent State 84.7 119 32.2% 124 0.75 109 0.407 123 0.306 127 0.458 109 0.386 126 0.464 77
Kansas 84.5 120 32.5% 122 0.87 55 0.435 117 0.433 109 0.446 117 0.426 123 0.480 65
SMU 84.2 121 24.0% 128 0.45 128 0.283 128 0.315 126 0.271 128 0.332 128 0.239 128
Ball State 83.3 122 42.5% 70 0.62 126 0.465 106 0.449 99 0.485 96 0.516 84 0.404 110
Southern Miss 83.1 123 32.7% 121 0.83 76 0.427 119 0.383 122 0.456 111 0.433 122 0.421 103
North Texas 81.3 124 31.4% 125 0.87 58 0.425 120 0.427 114 0.423 122 0.505 93 0.310 125
Connecticut 80.4 125 30.9% 126 0.66 123 0.379 126 0.343 125 0.415 123 0.421 124 0.324 124
Wake Forest 79.9 126 26.5% 127 0.68 119 0.348 127 0.302 128 0.377 125 0.371 127 0.332 123
Hawaii 79.9 127 33.5% 119 0.64 125 0.396 125 0.447 101 0.356 126 0.415 125 0.377 116
Eastern Michigan 72.9 128 37.9% 106 0.49 127 0.401 124 0.459 94 0.301 127 0.454 116 0.282 127