Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2005 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/4/06

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 USC 142.3 137.2 2 133.6 3 155.9 1 150.3 2 134.0 4 177.4 1 +0.498 15
2 Louisville 134.3 133.6 3 138.0 2 128.5 14 124.9 8 149.7 1 130.9 9 +1.220 4
3 Texas 133.8 143.6 1 146.1 1 149.8 2 158.5 1 146.9 2 169.1 2 +0.354 19
4 Ohio State 133.7 118.9 6 119.4 9 127.3 15 118.9 17 132.5 5 148.8 3 +1.051 5
5 Virginia Tech 132.2 117.3 14 117.1 13 128.6 13 125.3 7 123.0 12 138.2 5 +0.380 18
6 Auburn 129.5 118.1 13 115.9 16 132.0 9 121.3 15 123.1 11 131.6 8 +0.178 25
7 Texas Tech 129.4 127.1 4 125.1 5 140.8 4 144.0 3 121.4 16 133.2 7 +0.503 14
8 Notre Dame 126.6 118.8 9 117.9 12 138.3 5 111.5 31 132.4 6 140.8 4 +0.255 23
9 Georgia 126.2 118.6 10 121.6 7 122.8 19 120.3 16 125.8 8 135.1 6 -0.188 42
10 Alabama 125.8 109.7 30 123.6 6 93.4 78 114.0 25 112.7 32 123.7 19 -0.412 60
11 West Virginia 121.8 116.4 17 113.1 26 131.1 11 118.8 18 118.7 20 129.0 13 +0.797 7
12 Minnesota 121.7 118.4 11 115.8 17 141.5 3 121.6 14 135.1 3 125.8 17 -0.309 54
13 Penn State 121.4 115.2 19 116.9 14 118.3 23 127.5 6 111.9 35 129.2 11 -0.207 45
14 LSU 120.9 112.5 25 115.6 19 118.1 24 112.3 29 122.0 15 129.2 12 +1.465 1
15 Texas A&M 120.9 118.9 7 120.0 8 124.9 17 140.1 4 107.2 46 128.9 14 +0.207 24
16 Clemson 118.9 116.0 18 119.0 10 119.1 22 123.8 9 120.4 18 120.2 25 +0.557 13
17 Iowa 118.1 111.5 27 116.9 15 101.4 63 114.1 24 113.1 31 120.4 24 -0.174 41
18 Arizona State 117.8 118.3 12 114.2 22 136.9 6 108.3 42 128.2 7 122.1 21 -0.359 58
19 Fresno State 117.6 114.8 21 104.9 46 134.9 8 105.7 47 122.9 13 116.4 31 -0.909 94
20 Michigan State 117.4 119.5 5 125.7 4 116.6 26 129.0 5 119.6 19 117.2 27 -0.645 72
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Northern Illinois 117.4 118.8 8 110.5 33 130.4 12 108.6 41 125.4 9 114.5 33 -0.383 59
22 Boston College 117.4 108.3 33 109.5 37 114.9 32 107.3 45 115.0 28 118.8 26 -0.020 35
23 Florida 116.9 107.3 39 113.3 24 109.9 37 110.6 37 114.3 29 127.1 15 +0.688 9
24 Miami 116.0 116.7 15 115.2 21 131.7 10 123.2 11 120.5 17 110.9 41 -0.227 46
25 Northwestern 115.9 115.1 20 111.7 27 136.7 7 118.8 19 116.9 25 122.6 20 -1.003 100
26 BYU 114.9 114.0 22 115.5 20 114.9 31 122.0 13 109.4 43 116.4 30 +1.377 3
27 Missouri 113.9 107.8 36 111.0 30 113.7 33 123.7 10 106.1 47 126.0 16 +0.482 16
28 UCLA 113.3 116.5 16 118.1 11 121.4 20 117.0 20 122.5 14 114.3 34 -0.266 52
29 Maryland 113.1 111.8 26 111.1 28 126.3 16 114.8 21 117.5 22 112.9 37 -0.500 65
30 UAB 112.7 113.6 24 111.0 29 115.2 30 100.6 57 117.2 23 106.7 51 -0.804 86
31 Memphis 111.9 108.1 35 105.6 44 113.3 34 113.0 26 100.2 60 112.6 38 -0.861 91
32 Toledo 111.6 108.7 32 103.0 51 104.7 49 105.6 49 101.1 57 107.8 48 -0.674 78
33 Michigan 111.5 101.4 53 104.8 47 104.9 48 101.3 56 110.7 38 122.0 22 +0.103 28
34 Hawaii 111.4 114.0 23 113.7 23 111.0 36 108.7 40 111.2 37 107.3 49 +1.460 2
35 Utah 110.4 110.0 29 107.1 40 117.2 25 103.2 52 115.3 26 109.1 46 -0.189 43
36 Oregon 110.0 107.5 38 107.4 39 119.4 21 99.7 64 117.6 21 120.7 23 -0.270 53
37 Washington State 109.9 111.0 28 110.6 31 115.9 29 122.5 12 106.0 48 111.2 40 -0.239 47
38 Virginia 109.2 106.0 44 102.5 53 124.3 18 110.2 39 110.2 42 109.8 43 -0.580 68
39 Vanderbilt 109.0 105.9 45 110.5 34 105.7 43 99.6 65 113.2 30 117.1 28 -0.483 64
40 South Florida 107.9 101.0 55 106.5 42 105.3 44 110.6 36 100.6 58 110.9 41 +0.027 32
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 Oklahoma 107.8 98.3 66 102.0 55 104.5 50 107.5 44 101.4 56 130.2 10 +0.350 20
42 Colorado 107.7 98.2 67 101.6 60 103.2 54 95.8 75 107.5 44 125.6 18 -0.897 92
43 Navy 106.8 108.3 34 105.6 45 97.5 68 110.5 38 103.5 52 102.5 65 -0.004 34
44 Wisconsin 106.5 101.7 51 101.0 61 106.3 41 101.6 54 104.8 50 113.0 36 +0.679 10
45 South Carolina 106.2 104.1 47 109.5 36 103.7 52 96.0 72 117.0 24 114.6 32 +0.626 11
46 TCU 106.1 99.1 62 104.4 48 90.7 85 112.3 28 88.9 91 109.0 47 +0.707 8
47 Air Force 106.1 109.1 31 110.6 32 102.4 58 110.8 34 124.6 10 102.0 67 -0.664 76
48 Florida State 105.7 101.9 50 113.3 25 95.8 71 93.6 87 112.0 34 112.0 39 +0.016 33
49 Georgia Tech 105.6 98.9 63 108.9 38 95.0 73 103.9 50 104.3 51 116.6 29 -0.038 36
50 Tulsa 105.5 101.4 52 98.2 68 103.2 53 92.1 90 107.4 45 113.0 35 +0.282 22
51 Southern Miss 105.4 100.5 57 100.3 64 100.1 67 86.6 99 110.3 41 102.5 65 -0.167 40
52 Iowa State 104.8 100.2 59 95.0 83 116.4 28 95.6 80 110.4 40 105.6 56 -1.142 103
53 Rutgers 104.7 107.7 37 102.9 52 111.8 35 96.5 71 115.2 27 103.6 62 +0.106 27
54 Boise State 104.7 103.3 48 101.8 56 100.9 64 111.6 30 95.5 73 104.8 58 +0.902 6
55 Houston 104.6 106.4 41 106.3 43 105.2 46 111.0 32 101.4 55 104.5 60 +0.159 26
56 Bowling Green 104.3 106.3 42 101.8 57 108.9 39 94.4 84 111.3 36 99.9 73 -0.811 87
57 Arkansas 103.8 104.7 46 110.2 35 102.3 60 114.8 23 98.1 66 106.3 53 +0.034 31
58 UL-Lafayette 103.3 102.4 49 96.2 79 105.2 47 103.9 51 92.1 84 103.7 61 -0.771 85
59 Pittsburgh 102.7 97.3 68 96.8 76 101.7 62 95.5 81 103.1 53 107.2 50 -0.059 37
60 Nebraska 102.5 96.8 71 97.0 74 109.5 38 100.2 61 100.0 61 102.0 67 +0.300 21
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 UTEP 102.3 106.4 40 103.0 50 102.7 57 93.1 88 106.0 49 96.5 81 -0.662 75
62 Purdue 102.3 100.7 56 101.6 59 105.3 45 110.7 35 95.6 71 105.1 57 -0.318 55
63 Miami (Ohio) 101.9 101.3 54 102.4 54 96.7 69 99.4 66 100.5 59 100.5 71 -1.016 102
64 Wake Forest 101.9 100.2 58 115.7 18 80.8 101 114.8 22 95.4 75 106.0 55 -0.082 38
65 Tennessee 101.7 95.3 76 97.6 70 100.5 66 99.8 63 99.0 65 109.4 45 +0.403 17
66 Colorado State 100.7 106.1 43 106.7 41 103.1 55 97.9 67 112.4 33 97.4 79 -0.637 71
67 California 100.6 99.6 61 100.5 63 94.0 75 112.7 27 86.9 95 103.3 64 +0.567 12
68 N.C. State 100.3 95.3 77 90.7 94 116.6 27 100.3 60 99.7 63 106.4 52 -0.670 77
69 Kansas 100.1 91.7 89 94.1 86 94.8 74 94.9 83 94.8 77 109.6 44 -0.513 66
70 Arizona 99.3 94.3 80 103.8 49 80.5 102 95.7 78 98.0 67 106.2 54 -0.602 69
71 New Mexico 98.5 94.3 81 100.3 65 78.5 106 96.6 70 91.3 88 103.5 63 -0.749 84
72 Nevada 97.5 99.8 60 92.6 91 107.5 40 100.4 59 94.8 78 93.0 88 +0.078 29
73 East Carolina 97.3 98.7 65 92.9 89 102.4 59 93.6 86 96.6 68 96.1 83 -0.446 62
74 Louisiana Tech 96.8 97.3 69 100.6 62 87.9 89 105.7 48 89.5 89 90.3 94 -2.092 118
75 Wyoming 96.1 96.2 73 98.1 69 88.6 88 90.7 93 96.2 70 96.5 81 -0.327 57
76 North Carolina 96.1 93.3 84 99.1 66 96.2 70 95.9 73 101.5 54 104.6 59 -1.274 107
77 Connecticut 95.5 89.3 96 97.2 72 78.4 107 97.5 68 82.3 101 99.5 74 -0.716 81
78 Kansas State 95.4 92.5 86 96.2 78 92.3 82 107.7 43 84.7 98 100.0 72 -0.734 82
79 Central Florida 95.4 98.9 64 94.9 84 103.9 51 87.7 97 110.6 39 88.6 98 -1.167 105
80 Central Michigan 95.1 96.9 70 93.6 88 101.9 61 91.5 91 99.5 64 94.5 85 -0.259 51
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 Washington 94.7 96.7 72 96.9 75 103.0 56 102.4 53 95.5 74 98.5 78 -0.970 96
82 San Diego State 94.2 94.8 79 98.6 67 91.2 84 95.2 82 96.2 69 97.1 80 -1.003 101
83 Eastern Michigan 93.4 93.2 85 90.5 96 93.7 76 85.3 103 94.6 80 89.8 95 -1.579 112
84 Oregon State 93.3 93.4 83 97.1 73 90.2 86 87.1 98 99.7 62 91.1 93 -0.244 48
85 Western Michigan 92.3 92.1 88 89.0 98 87.3 92 79.1 111 94.7 79 87.5 100 -0.323 56
86 Baylor 92.1 87.7 98 87.8 103 92.5 81 89.1 95 89.4 90 100.6 70 -0.852 89
87 Middle Tennessee 92.1 90.1 93 91.0 93 87.5 90 86.5 100 91.7 87 92.1 89 -0.450 63
88 Army 92.1 90.3 91 92.7 90 89.9 87 95.7 76 95.0 76 94.7 84 -1.441 110
89 Rice 91.5 89.0 97 88.7 100 87.3 91 95.7 77 65.8 119 101.7 69 -0.737 83
90 UL-Monroe 91.4 95.0 78 89.4 97 100.8 65 90.9 92 91.7 86 85.7 104 -0.574 67
91 Florida International 91.3 95.9 75 91.1 92 95.1 72 86.2 101 92.3 83 82.1 106 -1.489 111
92 Oklahoma State 90.9 91.2 90 96.1 80 85.6 95 107.1 46 80.6 106 99.4 75 +0.062 30
93 Akron 90.7 89.8 94 84.8 107 92.0 83 80.9 108 88.4 92 91.2 91 -0.607 70
94 Stanford 90.5 86.8 99 80.3 112 106.1 42 79.3 110 95.5 72 98.6 77 -1.617 113
95 Arkansas State 90.5 96.1 74 96.5 77 81.0 100 93.8 85 88.1 94 79.8 110 -0.998 98
96 Illinois 89.9 94.1 82 101.7 58 93.2 80 110.9 33 92.3 82 91.2 91 -0.246 50
97 Mississippi State 89.9 86.4 102 95.2 81 79.1 104 99.9 62 78.1 109 99.1 76 -1.002 99
98 Kentucky 88.5 89.5 95 94.5 85 85.8 94 95.6 79 88.1 93 89.4 96 -0.699 80
99 Marshall 87.6 90.2 92 95.2 82 82.3 97 100.5 58 82.9 100 86.5 101 -0.859 90
100 SMU 87.3 86.0 103 88.0 102 81.5 98 84.8 105 85.4 97 88.5 99 -0.652 73
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 Ball State 86.3 86.6 101 88.9 99 86.0 93 89.8 94 86.5 96 89.2 97 -0.191 44
102 Ohio 86.1 92.4 87 94.1 87 93.4 79 101.4 55 81.0 104 86.4 102 -0.699 79
103 Indiana 86.1 86.6 100 90.7 95 83.0 96 92.6 89 84.4 99 92.0 90 -0.916 95
104 Cincinnati 85.7 85.9 105 97.5 71 72.9 113 97.4 69 80.9 105 94.4 86 -0.421 61
105 San Jose State 81.2 85.9 104 86.9 104 76.5 109 85.1 104 81.2 102 74.3 114 -0.147 39
106 Idaho 81.1 81.8 109 88.6 101 66.4 118 75.4 115 81.1 103 78.0 112 -1.441 109
107 UNLV 80.5 83.8 106 86.2 105 78.9 105 88.4 96 77.6 110 80.7 108 -1.320 108
108 Utah State 80.2 83.1 107 84.1 110 81.1 99 76.2 113 93.0 81 80.1 109 -1.934 117
109 Ole Miss 79.9 79.7 112 83.6 111 80.3 103 67.9 118 91.8 85 83.7 105 -1.184 106
110 Syracuse 79.5 71.2 118 74.0 117 74.7 111 79.1 112 67.1 115 94.3 87 -1.155 104
111 Florida Atlantic 79.2 83.0 108 84.9 106 76.4 110 82.2 107 80.2 108 79.7 111 -0.981 97
112 Tulane 77.7 77.2 113 65.1 118 93.6 77 68.5 117 77.0 111 81.5 107 -0.903 93
113 North Texas 76.1 80.4 111 84.6 108 74.6 112 85.8 102 73.3 112 76.3 113 -1.667 114
114 Duke 75.5 72.1 117 76.3 115 72.4 115 84.5 106 66.9 116 86.1 103 -1.782 115
115 New Mexico State 74.3 80.5 110 84.5 109 76.5 108 95.8 74 72.1 113 72.2 116 -0.245 49
116 Troy 72.8 75.2 114 75.5 116 65.0 119 75.7 114 66.4 117 69.5 118 -0.657 74
117 Buffalo 70.8 73.8 115 76.4 114 71.1 117 80.8 109 65.8 118 73.9 115 -1.884 116
118 Kent State 70.1 70.4 119 65.0 119 72.5 114 57.3 119 69.2 114 72.2 117 -0.829 88
119 Temple 67.5 73.5 116 77.1 113 71.2 116 68.6 116 80.2 107 69.2 119 -2.685 119