Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2006 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/8/07

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 West Virginia 143.3 140.8 2 134.1 2 162.1 1 153.3 1 134.4 4 146.5 1 +0.797 7
2 Louisville 140.3 135.1 3 133.9 3 143.2 4 127.0 5 148.2 1 143.8 4 +1.220 4
3 Hawaii 140.2 147.1 1 137.3 1 157.8 2 151.3 2 132.2 6 140.2 7 +1.460 2
4 BYU 137.6 131.3 4 129.4 4 143.0 6 114.9 23 144.3 2 138.0 9 +1.377 3
5 LSU 134.6 125.0 5 120.0 8 143.2 5 118.1 16 133.3 5 145.2 2 +1.465 1
6 Ohio State 134.3 123.7 6 118.1 13 149.6 3 129.6 4 131.5 7 141.3 5 +1.051 5
7 Florida 128.8 116.4 15 121.7 7 117.1 27 110.9 31 129.1 11 144.9 3 +0.688 9
8 South Carolina 128.3 120.5 7 119.8 10 128.9 10 117.5 17 128.3 12 139.5 8 +0.626 11
9 Tennessee 127.9 113.7 23 108.6 34 135.1 7 94.3 87 130.5 9 140.4 6 +0.403 17
10 Boise State 124.8 120.4 8 117.8 14 120.0 22 124.8 9 118.0 19 124.4 18 +0.902 6
11 Michigan 124.7 109.9 27 108.3 35 120.4 18 113.3 26 115.9 24 132.1 11 +0.103 28
12 USC 123.9 114.9 20 115.4 19 128.1 11 106.8 43 131.0 8 134.9 10 +0.498 15
13 Notre Dame 122.3 117.9 13 116.4 18 134.1 8 116.2 18 124.9 14 130.0 13 +0.255 23
14 Texas 121.1 114.6 22 116.9 16 110.1 41 115.5 20 115.5 26 124.9 17 +0.354 19
15 California 121.0 119.4 10 115.3 21 133.3 9 118.4 15 122.3 15 125.6 16 +0.567 12
16 Auburn 120.5 109.7 29 112.2 23 118.5 25 110.6 32 121.9 16 126.7 15 +0.178 25
17 Arkansas 119.1 115.4 17 116.7 17 122.7 13 125.9 6 112.2 34 130.2 12 +0.034 31
18 Clemson 119.1 114.6 21 112.0 25 118.9 24 125.5 7 104.5 51 122.0 21 +0.557 13
19 Pittsburgh 118.0 120.1 9 126.2 5 115.9 30 103.4 56 135.9 3 118.2 27 -0.059 37
20 Texas Tech 117.7 119.1 11 124.8 6 108.2 48 125.1 8 110.8 35 122.2 20 +0.503 14
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Oklahoma State 117.0 115.8 16 119.9 9 109.3 44 119.7 13 117.6 21 120.7 22 +0.062 30
22 Minnesota 116.9 118.1 12 119.0 12 126.4 12 115.0 22 130.0 10 118.2 27 -0.309 54
23 Texas A&M 116.6 109.8 28 106.5 43 117.5 26 123.7 11 101.6 59 119.5 24 +0.207 24
24 Kentucky 116.6 115.1 18 116.9 15 120.5 17 102.5 61 127.1 13 123.3 19 -0.699 80
25 Virginia Tech 116.5 103.5 47 106.9 40 108.4 47 107.7 39 108.6 39 120.2 23 +0.380 18
26 Oklahoma 116.1 107.0 37 111.5 28 101.1 58 105.4 47 118.2 18 128.7 14 +0.350 20
27 Missouri 115.3 111.1 24 110.3 31 116.5 28 102.5 62 118.9 17 117.8 29 +0.482 16
28 Rutgers 115.2 108.4 32 106.8 41 112.5 39 108.4 37 113.0 30 115.7 31 +0.106 27
29 Utah 114.4 110.2 25 110.3 30 113.9 33 111.7 30 112.3 33 113.5 37 -0.189 43
30 TCU 113.7 105.3 40 103.3 52 103.8 55 104.2 51 104.9 50 112.5 39 +0.707 8
31 Wisconsin 113.6 103.6 46 98.4 69 112.7 38 99.7 74 110.1 37 113.9 34 +0.679 10
32 Boston College 113.3 108.8 31 111.6 27 106.5 51 104.6 49 110.8 36 115.7 30 -0.020 35
33 Nebraska 113.1 106.9 38 105.1 46 116.2 29 105.5 46 112.6 32 119.1 25 +0.300 21
34 Houston 113.0 116.8 14 112.0 24 122.2 14 114.5 24 115.6 25 113.6 36 +0.159 26
35 Oregon 111.7 114.9 19 119.0 11 119.0 23 137.7 3 107.2 44 115.5 33 -0.270 53
36 Maryland 111.5 110.1 26 114.9 22 112.7 37 115.9 19 117.9 20 111.3 44 -0.500 65
37 Arizona State 110.7 108.2 33 115.4 20 102.5 57 120.3 12 104.9 49 112.4 41 -0.359 58
38 Georgia Tech 110.1 104.0 44 103.0 54 111.7 40 115.3 21 97.5 67 115.5 32 -0.038 36
39 Oregon State 109.2 108.8 30 111.6 26 108.8 45 106.7 44 116.6 23 112.5 40 -0.244 48
40 Cincinnati 108.3 102.7 50 106.6 42 107.2 49 100.7 69 116.8 22 113.7 35 -0.421 61
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 Florida State 108.2 102.2 54 98.2 72 120.1 21 98.9 75 106.9 46 118.8 26 +0.016 33
42 Wake Forest 108.2 102.7 51 100.5 62 115.0 31 102.1 63 113.4 29 112.1 42 -0.082 38
43 Navy 108.1 107.6 34 102.9 55 113.2 35 119.7 14 77.0 111 104.3 57 -0.004 34
44 Tulsa 107.6 104.4 42 94.3 86 120.4 19 101.2 67 103.2 55 111.4 43 +0.282 22
45 Alabama 107.4 102.4 53 109.1 33 100.4 63 104.2 52 108.1 41 113.1 38 -0.412 60
46 Iowa 106.7 107.0 35 102.9 56 121.4 16 110.4 33 107.6 42 110.3 46 -0.174 41
47 South Florida 106.2 102.1 55 101.5 61 106.5 50 95.0 86 114.1 27 110.0 47 +0.027 32
48 Central Michigan 106.2 104.3 43 97.0 77 110.0 42 98.3 77 101.7 58 103.3 59 -0.259 51
49 Georgia 106.1 100.7 60 98.3 71 114.3 32 101.2 66 105.5 48 108.2 50 -0.188 42
50 Nevada 105.7 99.1 63 97.6 75 97.4 69 102.8 58 94.5 72 107.0 51 +0.078 29
51 Air Force 105.0 102.0 56 98.4 70 121.8 15 112.7 29 103.8 54 104.8 56 -0.664 76
52 Penn State 104.8 96.6 74 102.7 58 87.7 93 108.8 36 89.7 88 105.9 53 -0.207 45
53 Miami 104.3 98.3 66 103.7 49 97.4 70 97.1 80 107.3 43 111.0 45 -0.227 46
54 Washington State 103.9 103.5 48 103.0 53 112.8 36 92.7 92 114.1 28 109.3 48 -0.239 47
55 Northern Illinois 103.4 101.4 58 105.5 45 87.9 91 104.6 50 94.2 76 100.0 67 -0.383 59
56 Purdue 103.4 107.0 36 107.2 39 101.0 59 107.6 40 101.3 60 105.1 55 -0.318 55
57 Southern Miss 103.2 98.3 67 98.8 67 100.5 61 103.5 55 96.1 69 105.2 54 -0.167 40
58 Vanderbilt 102.3 105.4 39 103.6 50 113.3 34 104.0 54 108.6 40 102.4 61 -0.483 64
59 UCLA 102.0 94.1 79 99.3 64 90.9 81 96.3 81 96.7 68 108.9 49 -0.266 52
60 Kansas 101.4 102.5 52 108.3 36 93.2 75 112.8 27 92.8 81 96.0 80 -0.513 66
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 UL-Monroe 101.3 103.2 49 110.5 29 87.0 96 100.5 70 104.0 53 95.2 84 -0.574 67
62 East Carolina 99.9 96.8 73 93.6 88 105.2 54 92.2 93 100.6 62 101.0 65 -0.446 62
63 Ball State 99.8 97.6 69 92.3 92 100.2 64 80.1 110 102.7 56 98.4 68 -0.191 44
64 Marshall 99.8 103.7 45 98.8 68 108.8 46 105.1 48 100.7 61 95.6 81 -0.859 90
65 North Carolina 98.0 104.8 41 107.3 38 120.1 20 112.8 27 112.9 31 97.5 73 -1.274 107
66 Northwestern 97.9 100.8 59 109.5 32 96.6 71 109.9 34 104.1 52 102.1 63 -1.003 100
67 Illinois 97.6 97.1 70 106.2 44 89.7 84 123.9 10 76.7 112 106.6 52 -0.246 50
68 Central Florida 97.4 101.7 57 102.3 59 99.7 65 95.4 85 109.4 38 92.7 93 -1.167 105
69 Rice 97.2 97.7 68 97.4 76 99.7 66 108.8 35 90.5 85 98.4 68 -0.737 83
70 San Jose State 97.2 96.9 72 94.7 82 91.8 79 93.4 91 98.2 65 97.1 76 -0.147 39
71 UTEP 96.2 99.2 62 90.0 101 109.7 43 65.5 119 107.0 45 93.6 90 -0.662 75
72 New Mexico State 96.0 98.8 64 94.5 85 97.6 68 75.4 116 98.7 64 91.1 97 -0.245 49
73 Akron 95.9 98.6 65 103.5 51 90.4 82 86.4 99 106.4 47 90.8 98 -0.607 70
74 Michigan State 95.8 97.0 71 97.9 73 100.5 62 107.5 42 90.9 84 98.2 72 -0.645 72
75 Washington 95.2 96.2 75 107.4 37 89.0 88 100.1 72 102.3 57 98.3 71 -0.970 96
76 Iowa State 95.1 100.1 61 104.2 48 106.2 52 114.1 25 97.9 66 94.9 85 -1.142 103
77 Syracuse 95.1 93.0 83 104.5 47 88.9 89 107.5 41 93.7 77 103.1 60 -1.155 104
78 Western Michigan 94.9 92.5 87 92.4 91 88.5 90 88.3 97 93.2 79 94.5 87 -0.323 56
79 Indiana 94.2 93.3 82 97.0 78 95.5 73 95.8 83 94.7 71 101.1 64 -0.916 95
80 Baylor 94.1 93.6 81 94.7 83 103.5 56 85.7 101 94.4 74 97.4 74 -0.852 89
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 Troy 94.0 93.7 80 88.2 103 100.9 60 100.2 71 85.7 94 90.3 100 -0.657 74
82 Kansas State 94.0 91.6 89 102.8 57 77.8 113 95.6 84 92.8 82 95.6 81 -0.734 82
83 New Mexico 93.7 90.3 97 90.0 100 97.9 67 97.2 79 86.5 92 95.4 83 -0.749 84
84 Virginia 93.6 91.1 91 102.1 60 82.1 100 104.1 53 89.2 89 96.2 79 -0.580 68
85 UL-Lafayette 93.5 92.9 84 90.8 96 92.8 78 102.7 59 77.7 109 94.1 88 -0.771 85
86 N.C. State 93.4 94.1 78 92.9 90 106.1 53 101.1 68 94.3 75 100.2 66 -0.670 77
87 Fresno State 93.3 91.3 90 90.5 99 95.7 72 101.6 64 82.6 100 96.9 78 -0.909 94
88 Ohio 93.0 90.8 93 94.6 84 81.1 104 100.0 73 79.2 108 88.7 102 -0.699 79
89 Wyoming 92.8 88.3 102 90.7 97 89.4 86 101.4 65 80.5 106 98.4 70 -0.327 57
90 Connecticut 92.7 90.0 99 91.3 94 92.9 77 102.7 60 80.8 105 102.2 62 -0.716 81
91 Middle Tennessee 92.4 90.3 98 93.7 87 81.6 103 91.5 94 87.2 91 97.0 77 -0.450 63
92 UAB 92.3 92.8 85 100.4 63 79.0 108 93.4 90 94.4 73 93.0 92 -0.804 86
93 SMU 92.2 90.4 96 90.6 98 80.9 105 79.6 111 93.4 78 91.2 96 -0.652 73
94 Colorado 91.9 91.0 92 97.9 74 84.6 99 106.4 45 77.4 110 91.7 94 -0.897 92
95 Bowling Green 91.8 94.2 77 96.3 79 91.4 80 96.0 82 91.1 83 88.7 103 -0.811 87
96 Memphis 91.6 90.7 94 91.0 95 85.6 98 82.7 106 93.1 80 91.7 95 -0.861 91
97 Tulane 91.6 95.3 76 99.1 66 90.2 83 86.1 100 100.6 63 94.7 86 -0.903 93
98 Ole Miss 91.2 87.0 104 95.0 81 76.0 115 94.1 88 84.3 97 97.2 75 -1.184 106
99 Colorado State 91.0 88.5 101 88.5 102 95.4 74 81.6 108 95.2 70 93.8 89 -0.637 71
100 Arizona 88.0 78.9 114 84.3 107 78.9 109 77.2 114 85.7 93 103.4 58 -0.602 69
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 Arkansas State 87.9 92.7 86 99.1 65 77.9 112 108.3 38 72.7 115 83.7 107 -0.998 98
102 Kent State 85.5 90.7 95 84.9 106 93.1 76 84.7 102 90.2 86 79.1 111 -0.829 88
103 Miami (Ohio) 84.9 87.5 103 85.8 105 85.8 97 82.2 107 84.6 96 83.2 108 -1.016 102
104 Toledo 84.8 84.1 108 81.7 113 80.3 106 97.7 78 67.5 118 84.2 105 -0.674 78
105 UNLV 84.1 88.8 100 91.4 93 87.8 92 93.8 89 87.6 90 83.9 106 -1.320 108
106 Louisiana Tech 83.0 92.1 88 96.1 80 81.9 101 103.4 57 81.5 102 73.0 117 -2.092 118
107 Mississippi State 82.8 79.8 112 78.5 116 87.4 94 81.1 109 81.2 103 93.4 91 -1.002 99
108 San Diego State 82.7 81.6 110 83.0 109 89.4 87 89.7 95 82.9 99 90.4 99 -1.003 101
109 Florida Atlantic 82.2 84.8 106 80.8 115 89.7 85 77.6 112 90.0 87 84.3 104 -0.981 97
110 Idaho 81.7 84.8 107 82.0 112 87.3 95 86.8 98 81.0 104 80.7 110 -1.441 109
111 Duke 79.6 85.4 105 93.5 89 81.6 102 98.6 76 83.7 98 78.8 112 -1.782 115
112 Eastern Michigan 79.4 82.8 109 87.5 104 69.7 117 88.7 96 74.9 114 75.1 113 -1.579 112
113 Stanford 78.2 77.8 116 83.0 108 78.1 111 82.9 105 79.3 107 90.2 101 -1.617 113
114 Buffalo 77.5 80.8 111 82.6 110 78.4 110 77.4 113 85.0 95 74.2 114 -1.884 116
115 Army 75.5 78.2 115 81.0 114 70.2 116 84.1 104 70.1 117 73.9 115 -1.441 110
116 Utah State 74.8 79.0 113 82.0 111 80.3 107 84.2 103 82.0 101 81.3 109 -1.934 117
117 North Texas 73.8 74.2 117 71.5 119 77.8 114 75.8 115 75.4 113 73.6 116 -1.667 114
118 Florida International 70.1 72.0 118 75.8 118 66.8 118 69.7 118 70.1 116 72.8 118 -1.489 111
119 Temple 60.0 59.9 119 77.1 117 35.1 119 70.6 117 49.5 119 63.5 119 -2.685 119