Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2007 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/7/08

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 Florida 140.7 142.8 1 146.2 1 147.4 1 132.6 5 169.1 1 151.8 3 +0.639 5
2 Missouri 130.2 118.8 10 114.9 18 138.1 2 115.6 20 126.1 7 155.0 1 +0.633 6
3 Ohio State 129.1 109.1 34 113.5 21 101.8 59 109.0 39 113.1 27 131.9 10 +0.710 4
4 Oregon 128.5 122.5 4 129.8 2 127.0 14 149.2 1 114.5 26 153.2 2 +0.449 10
5 West Virginia 128.4 123.1 3 124.9 4 127.4 13 132.6 4 123.3 11 146.2 5 +0.570 8
6 LSU 126.0 117.4 12 126.9 3 116.1 29 130.4 7 120.4 15 148.7 4 +0.601 7
7 Oklahoma State 125.6 123.9 2 124.0 6 129.8 10 125.9 8 131.9 3 135.7 8 +0.011 29
8 Louisville 125.0 122.0 5 123.5 7 130.7 8 105.6 49 142.4 2 133.0 9 +0.141 24
9 Texas Tech 121.6 119.8 7 115.1 16 131.7 6 106.3 48 115.4 21 131.7 11 +0.493 9
10 USC 121.5 112.0 23 118.6 9 104.5 50 122.7 10 109.8 32 131.2 15 +0.394 13
11 Texas 120.0 111.8 24 116.5 13 104.4 51 111.5 28 114.8 24 131.6 13 +0.276 19
12 BYU 119.7 115.7 14 113.5 22 131.6 7 110.8 30 125.0 8 119.9 28 +0.278 18
13 Illinois 119.3 113.3 17 116.0 15 118.7 24 130.4 6 105.4 42 128.1 17 +0.334 14
14 Boston College 118.6 112.8 19 117.6 10 114.9 30 101.1 63 124.2 9 122.2 25 +0.078 26
15 Oklahoma 118.5 113.5 16 112.9 24 114.8 31 111.2 29 121.3 13 143.2 6 +0.802 2
16 Navy 117.7 119.8 8 122.5 8 105.0 49 120.2 12 129.2 4 108.1 50 -0.385 56
17 Kentucky 117.6 111.1 27 108.5 35 126.7 15 114.9 22 112.2 28 131.4 14 -0.135 36
18 Tennessee 117.6 111.3 26 110.6 28 124.6 18 98.7 69 127.4 5 135.8 7 -0.045 31
19 Tulsa 117.3 115.8 13 108.9 32 126.1 16 101.7 61 123.9 10 125.9 18 +0.195 21
20 Virginia Tech 116.5 105.9 39 107.7 37 112.9 35 122.7 9 104.5 47 125.4 21 -0.115 35
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Clemson 116.4 108.9 35 111.2 25 110.4 38 117.7 14 109.7 34 122.0 26 +0.302 16
22 Rutgers 116.4 113.6 15 111.2 26 117.1 27 106.3 47 121.6 12 125.4 20 +0.320 15
23 Penn State 116.2 110.8 28 116.5 12 112.7 36 116.6 17 115.8 20 118.1 32 +0.202 20
24 California 115.6 119.5 9 124.3 5 124.2 19 135.0 3 118.5 17 125.0 22 -0.150 37
25 Hawaii 115.5 121.3 6 113.9 20 122.7 21 93.4 86 120.9 14 115.0 36 +0.725 3
26 Boise State 114.7 112.7 21 103.3 54 129.8 9 106.3 46 116.3 19 113.9 40 +0.419 12
27 Wisconsin 114.1 112.9 18 108.9 33 133.3 5 115.6 19 120.3 16 112.8 46 -0.248 43
28 Cincinnati 114.0 107.4 36 107.9 36 110.1 40 97.1 74 114.8 23 118.3 31 +0.283 17
29 Nebraska 113.9 117.8 11 117.6 11 134.1 4 117.9 13 126.4 6 115.2 35 -0.649 71
30 Georgia 113.9 107.3 37 103.2 55 121.2 23 110.2 32 111.3 30 129.2 16 +0.162 22
31 Michigan State 113.5 112.7 20 113.3 23 128.3 12 121.0 11 118.0 18 115.0 36 -0.266 46
32 Kansas 112.7 109.5 31 110.0 31 101.3 60 114.7 23 101.7 63 118.7 30 +1.037 1
33 Air Force 112.6 109.4 32 106.2 41 118.5 25 113.0 25 107.6 40 117.9 33 +0.432 11
34 South Florida 112.2 104.5 42 104.9 46 112.9 34 110.1 33 104.8 45 131.7 11 -0.170 38
35 Auburn 111.6 101.6 55 105.2 45 106.3 45 109.9 34 104.2 49 125.7 19 -0.174 39
36 Arkansas 111.6 110.1 30 114.8 19 102.8 55 117.5 15 103.8 51 121.6 27 +0.126 25
37 Washington 111.1 112.0 22 115.0 17 129.1 11 136.4 2 103.7 52 122.5 24 -0.692 74
38 Washington State 109.2 110.5 29 105.3 44 135.3 3 106.6 45 115.3 22 113.8 41 -0.536 62
39 Central Michigan 109.1 111.4 25 104.1 51 125.1 17 116.8 16 104.1 50 103.5 62 -0.683 73
40 Fresno State 108.5 109.2 33 103.8 53 117.8 26 112.9 26 108.2 38 103.9 61 -0.272 47
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 Texas A&M 108.4 102.9 52 110.2 29 93.3 83 114.2 24 96.8 83 119.3 29 -0.383 54
42 Maryland 108.4 104.8 41 116.1 14 97.2 71 115.3 21 109.3 35 113.5 44 -0.265 45
43 Georgia Tech 108.1 103.5 48 110.2 30 98.1 66 109.2 38 103.4 57 108.2 49 -0.401 57
44 Arizona State 108.0 101.7 54 107.2 38 100.2 62 103.3 53 108.2 39 122.8 23 +0.158 23
45 Connecticut 107.3 99.5 64 103.0 56 98.1 65 102.4 60 101.8 61 117.9 33 +0.024 28
46 Arizona 107.3 103.5 49 105.5 43 113.6 33 99.3 66 108.6 36 113.7 43 -0.506 60
47 Nevada 106.8 106.9 38 96.3 79 123.8 20 104.1 51 108.3 37 104.3 58 -0.104 34
48 South Carolina 106.2 104.0 44 106.7 40 108.5 43 101.4 62 111.3 29 114.7 38 -0.427 59
49 Utah 105.2 99.5 63 104.8 49 92.6 85 107.1 41 97.1 78 105.1 55 -0.241 41
50 Kansas State 105.1 103.8 46 106.1 42 101.9 56 103.1 56 104.6 46 107.0 53 -0.413 58
51 Michigan 105.1 100.7 59 102.7 58 104.1 52 103.8 52 103.6 53 113.8 42 -0.295 50
52 East Carolina 105.0 103.7 47 104.1 52 105.9 46 107.7 40 102.4 59 107.8 51 -0.586 64
53 Central Florida 104.3 104.3 43 100.7 65 110.4 39 109.3 36 99.8 68 114.5 39 +0.069 27
54 Alabama 104.2 98.0 71 102.9 57 96.5 73 107.0 44 98.5 73 113.5 44 -0.366 52
55 Purdue 103.9 105.1 40 111.0 27 97.2 70 112.2 27 100.3 67 107.1 52 -0.058 32
56 Marshall 102.2 102.5 53 102.1 60 105.3 47 98.5 70 104.9 43 104.8 57 -0.950 94
57 Houston 102.1 103.8 45 95.4 82 109.4 42 97.9 72 103.6 54 98.4 70 +0.008 30
58 Virginia 102.0 97.8 73 101.8 62 101.8 58 103.2 55 100.8 66 110.2 47 -0.200 40
59 Florida State 101.7 98.6 69 100.1 67 103.1 54 96.3 79 105.4 41 104.1 60 -0.695 75
60 Troy 101.3 101.4 56 100.7 64 96.1 75 110.6 31 92.0 89 101.6 67 -0.242 42
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 Indiana 100.7 96.8 75 88.4 106 109.4 41 92.0 88 98.2 76 102.0 66 -0.334 51
62 Colorado State 100.5 103.4 50 101.9 61 114.4 32 107.0 43 110.8 31 98.3 71 -0.828 85
63 Bowling Green 100.1 101.3 57 100.2 66 94.3 82 97.3 73 96.9 81 94.6 79 -0.641 69
64 Northwestern 100.1 100.5 60 95.9 80 116.2 28 96.5 78 103.2 58 98.5 69 -0.601 66
65 UTEP 99.7 100.8 58 99.9 68 97.4 67 99.8 65 97.0 80 97.5 73 -0.645 70
66 Southern Miss 99.4 93.2 88 99.0 72 75.3 115 102.9 57 80.5 111 102.5 65 -0.094 33
67 UCLA 99.2 95.6 78 104.9 47 94.8 80 107.1 42 99.6 70 105.5 54 -0.813 83
68 Oregon State 98.9 97.9 72 104.4 50 92.4 86 116.4 18 87.4 97 104.9 56 -0.535 61
69 New Mexico 98.9 94.2 83 91.5 98 100.2 63 84.6 110 103.5 56 97.5 74 -0.255 44
70 Toledo 98.8 99.0 67 96.4 78 96.5 74 94.7 82 98.5 74 92.1 88 -0.823 84
71 Minnesota 98.6 103.0 51 99.9 69 122.1 22 102.6 59 109.7 33 94.1 81 -1.097 106
72 North Carolina 98.3 100.2 61 106.8 39 97.1 72 93.5 85 114.6 25 93.5 84 -0.899 89
73 Colorado 97.6 95.5 79 91.9 96 112.2 37 90.7 91 104.5 48 104.2 59 -0.977 95
74 TCU 97.2 95.5 80 93.6 90 105.1 48 96.1 80 98.5 75 97.9 72 -0.288 48
75 San Diego State 96.8 98.8 68 102.6 59 99.5 64 96.6 77 103.6 55 94.5 80 -1.016 98
76 Wake Forest 96.6 96.0 76 99.8 70 89.3 91 96.1 81 99.6 69 94.9 78 -0.636 68
77 Ball State 96.5 97.4 74 95.7 81 89.8 89 82.8 111 101.7 62 94.1 82 -0.289 49
78 Ole Miss 96.2 98.6 70 108.9 34 93.2 84 109.9 35 96.8 82 103.4 63 -1.038 99
79 New Mexico State 96.2 99.1 66 98.9 73 97.3 69 86.7 104 101.0 64 93.0 86 -0.905 90
80 SMU 95.8 100.1 62 101.1 63 95.7 76 100.9 64 98.6 72 87.3 100 -1.154 108
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 N.C. State 95.4 95.4 81 98.7 74 97.4 68 97.1 75 96.8 84 102.6 64 -0.887 88
82 Florida Atlantic 95.0 95.9 77 88.8 105 101.9 57 78.8 116 102.2 60 95.5 77 -0.626 67
83 Stanford 95.0 92.9 90 104.8 48 89.8 90 109.3 37 92.5 88 100.9 68 -1.070 103
84 UL-Lafayette 95.0 99.4 65 94.9 85 107.7 44 105.4 50 86.3 103 90.2 96 -0.743 79
85 Memphis 94.4 92.0 92 89.0 104 90.1 88 78.8 117 96.2 85 91.3 90 -0.383 55
86 Mississippi State 93.0 86.6 106 91.3 100 88.6 94 93.2 87 86.7 102 108.6 48 -0.702 77
87 Western Michigan 92.9 94.2 82 91.8 97 94.8 79 86.0 106 97.0 79 89.1 97 -0.883 87
88 Middle Tennessee 92.4 93.4 86 93.9 88 89.2 92 87.3 101 97.6 77 90.6 94 -0.680 72
89 Miami 92.3 91.2 94 89.7 101 100.7 61 96.8 76 93.5 87 95.6 76 -0.998 96
90 Ohio 92.1 93.7 84 95.0 83 86.2 101 90.5 93 91.5 91 84.5 104 -0.699 76
91 UL-Monroe 91.8 90.0 97 85.8 110 95.7 77 87.8 100 91.7 90 93.1 85 -0.373 53
92 Arkansas State 91.3 92.5 91 92.4 95 88.8 93 103.3 54 81.1 110 88.4 98 -0.567 63
93 Kent State 90.0 93.6 85 92.9 93 94.7 81 102.9 58 81.2 109 83.1 108 -0.912 91
94 Pittsburgh 89.7 85.7 107 89.1 103 80.7 108 90.3 94 83.1 105 96.9 75 -0.801 80
95 Vanderbilt 89.0 88.9 101 91.4 99 90.2 87 88.2 99 94.8 86 90.7 93 -0.929 93
96 Buffalo 89.0 89.1 100 92.4 94 77.1 112 86.2 105 87.5 96 86.0 103 -0.811 82
97 Tulane 88.5 90.4 96 94.8 86 78.5 111 98.7 68 77.9 116 82.4 109 -0.879 86
98 Wyoming 88.2 84.9 111 93.2 91 76.1 114 90.2 95 84.6 104 91.2 91 -0.713 78
99 Eastern Michigan 87.7 89.1 99 84.9 112 95.4 78 88.6 98 87.2 100 83.4 106 -1.044 101
100 UNLV 87.7 88.3 102 93.8 89 83.4 103 89.7 96 91.0 92 91.1 92 -0.925 92
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 San Jose State 87.6 91.6 93 85.9 109 103.2 53 72.3 120 100.9 65 84.1 105 -1.088 105
102 Syracuse 87.3 90.4 95 99.5 71 87.1 98 79.3 115 104.9 44 92.5 87 -1.728 118
103 Louisiana Tech 87.1 86.9 105 85.6 111 86.8 100 90.8 90 81.8 108 88.4 98 -1.046 102
104 Akron 87.0 87.3 104 89.5 102 87.0 99 89.3 97 87.2 99 83.4 106 -1.071 104
105 Iowa 86.5 85.0 110 94.7 87 66.0 120 98.2 71 74.0 118 87.0 101 -0.597 65
106 Rice 86.2 93.4 87 97.6 75 80.0 109 94.1 83 87.9 95 74.7 115 -1.477 115
107 North Texas 86.1 93.0 89 96.5 76 82.8 104 99.3 67 86.9 101 76.4 114 -1.414 114
108 Duke 85.7 87.4 103 96.4 77 81.2 107 78.0 118 99.1 71 91.4 89 -1.241 109
109 Iowa State 85.4 82.7 115 84.6 113 88.3 96 81.8 113 90.4 93 94.0 83 -1.044 100
110 Baylor 85.0 89.6 98 94.9 84 86.1 102 94.0 84 87.3 98 86.7 102 -1.389 113
111 Miami (Ohio) 84.8 85.6 108 83.4 114 82.7 105 86.8 103 79.4 113 78.9 111 -0.806 81
112 UAB 82.7 84.9 112 81.7 117 88.5 95 85.9 107 82.0 107 77.4 113 -1.594 117
113 Temple 82.5 84.4 114 88.3 107 73.9 117 81.2 114 82.3 106 78.8 112 -1.015 97
114 Northern Illinois 81.9 84.8 113 83.0 115 76.9 113 85.3 109 77.2 117 74.6 116 -1.141 107
115 Utah State 80.2 81.7 116 85.9 108 79.6 110 82.4 112 88.7 94 80.3 110 -1.779 119
116 Idaho 79.3 85.1 109 93.1 92 69.8 119 90.7 92 80.1 112 71.8 117 -1.380 112
117 Notre Dame 77.6 71.9 119 76.8 119 75.2 116 91.6 89 64.3 120 90.4 95 -1.263 110
118 Florida International 74.0 80.8 117 79.9 118 87.8 97 85.7 108 78.3 115 69.3 119 -2.003 120
119 Army 72.4 74.5 118 74.0 120 71.9 118 75.3 119 72.1 119 70.9 118 -1.529 116