Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2008 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/8/09

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 Florida 149.9 140.4 1 144.6 1 145.7 4 144.2 1 153.6 3 173.8 2 +1.302 3
2 USC 148.2 136.0 3 134.8 2 150.8 2 128.7 4 151.4 4 152.4 4 +1.464 1
3 Penn State 136.5 132.4 4 133.5 4 149.3 3 138.1 3 140.0 5 145.4 6 +1.128 4
4 Oklahoma 133.6 137.1 2 133.0 5 161.1 1 124.5 11 157.4 1 177.5 1 +1.099 5
5 Texas 133.4 120.3 11 113.7 25 141.8 7 110.0 39 131.8 10 171.5 3 +1.424 2
6 Georgia 129.3 131.1 5 133.5 3 144.2 5 116.3 21 154.6 2 135.4 11 +0.248 22
7 Alabama 128.0 117.4 15 124.4 9 120.5 20 128.6 5 119.7 16 135.4 11 +0.456 13
8 Boise State 127.4 117.4 14 109.8 34 137.0 9 99.1 72 135.1 7 127.2 17 +0.989 6
9 Missouri 127.4 123.3 7 125.7 8 116.5 24 113.6 29 128.1 12 140.9 7 +0.448 14
10 Oklahoma State 127.1 125.7 6 124.3 10 133.6 10 123.3 12 137.1 6 140.5 8 +0.255 21
11 Ohio State 126.6 114.3 19 114.4 21 133.2 12 126.0 8 116.0 21 139.3 9 +0.333 17
12 Ole Miss 126.4 117.4 16 111.1 29 142.4 6 110.8 37 132.1 9 137.3 10 +0.197 24
13 Texas Tech 124.2 120.3 10 115.0 19 133.0 13 125.3 9 114.1 25 148.1 5 +0.900 8
14 Oregon 120.9 122.9 8 127.1 6 123.0 16 138.3 2 111.1 30 135.0 13 +0.255 20
15 Nebraska 120.4 117.9 13 123.5 11 114.2 30 105.2 57 134.5 8 131.9 14 +0.032 25
16 BYU 120.3 122.7 9 126.4 7 118.4 23 113.9 26 128.9 11 116.2 31 +0.222 23
17 Tulsa 120.1 118.2 12 108.4 39 128.5 14 109.6 42 121.3 13 126.6 18 +0.925 7
18 TCU 120.0 102.0 51 102.4 59 103.5 57 104.6 59 101.9 52 128.6 16 +0.790 9
19 Utah 119.1 111.7 29 118.0 14 106.7 47 111.6 33 115.7 22 125.6 20 +0.627 11
20 Arizona 118.9 112.6 24 110.2 32 122.6 18 111.3 35 115.1 24 126.5 19 +0.378 15
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Iowa 118.0 113.6 20 120.2 12 104.6 54 125.0 10 109.3 34 119.7 25 +0.458 12
22 Oregon State 116.5 111.9 28 110.0 33 133.3 11 115.0 22 119.2 18 125.2 21 -0.307 51
23 Rice 116.4 115.8 17 115.4 18 106.1 48 110.0 40 113.8 26 119.1 27 -0.155 39
24 Kansas 115.5 113.3 21 115.6 16 114.2 32 109.8 41 116.4 20 122.6 22 -0.223 45
25 Ball State 115.5 112.2 26 106.9 44 102.0 63 103.0 61 106.4 42 115.7 34 +0.785 10
26 LSU 115.3 109.6 33 114.8 20 106.8 46 120.7 16 106.3 43 118.8 28 -0.268 50
27 Rutgers 114.2 111.6 30 118.1 13 98.5 73 99.7 69 120.7 14 117.6 29 +0.343 16
28 Florida State 113.7 107.3 39 106.3 47 114.2 31 117.6 19 100.4 58 121.4 23 +0.322 18
29 West Virginia 113.4 111.4 32 111.5 27 121.1 19 126.1 7 105.0 47 112.8 37 +0.003 27
30 Houston 113.1 115.1 18 107.9 40 118.8 22 112.5 31 107.2 37 112.3 39 +0.265 19
31 Stanford 113.0 113.3 22 115.6 17 137.3 8 126.6 6 120.1 15 115.7 33 -0.594 69
32 South Florida 112.4 112.3 25 108.7 38 126.9 15 109.0 43 119.2 17 110.6 44 +0.007 26
33 Illinois 111.8 111.9 27 114.4 23 116.2 25 114.8 24 115.4 23 115.2 35 -0.141 37
34 Nevada 110.8 112.6 23 109.2 36 114.7 29 122.6 13 99.2 65 110.0 49 -0.021 29
35 Baylor 110.8 103.8 47 106.9 43 102.3 62 112.3 32 99.9 61 130.6 15 -0.259 48
36 Pittsburgh 110.8 104.1 46 104.5 50 113.1 34 111.3 36 105.4 45 119.4 26 -0.337 53
37 Navy 110.8 108.2 35 111.1 28 104.4 55 115.0 23 118.0 19 108.7 51 -0.147 38
38 Cincinnati 109.6 107.9 37 105.4 49 118.8 21 105.7 53 110.9 31 116.7 30 -0.039 33
39 Clemson 109.3 101.3 56 103.0 56 101.3 66 99.2 71 104.2 49 112.9 36 -0.026 31
40 California 109.2 105.8 43 107.9 41 105.7 50 118.2 18 98.2 69 112.7 38 -0.033 32
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 Georgia Tech 109.1 111.6 31 115.9 15 102.9 59 122.6 14 97.1 75 109.8 50 -0.190 43
42 Wisconsin 108.8 109.6 34 114.4 22 107.6 42 121.6 15 104.1 50 111.3 42 -0.323 52
43 Colorado State 108.5 108.2 36 112.3 26 108.6 39 114.7 25 107.4 35 111.8 40 -0.403 57
44 North Carolina 108.3 105.7 44 107.9 42 104.0 56 102.2 63 111.4 29 110.3 45 -0.438 58
45 Arkansas 107.3 107.8 38 110.4 30 115.4 26 113.9 27 109.4 32 120.8 24 -0.676 74
46 Maryland 106.9 106.4 42 114.0 24 97.1 75 113.6 28 105.1 46 106.6 54 -0.625 70
47 Southern Miss 106.6 102.6 50 102.9 57 107.4 43 110.6 38 99.4 64 110.7 43 -0.176 41
48 UL-Lafayette 105.5 107.1 40 109.3 35 93.4 85 108.9 44 99.1 67 101.9 67 -0.338 54
49 Central Michigan 105.4 103.6 48 96.8 74 113.6 33 89.5 98 109.4 33 103.9 64 -0.455 59
50 Michigan State 105.2 98.1 70 101.0 65 105.7 51 97.0 80 111.7 28 115.8 32 -0.483 61
51 Connecticut 105.1 101.7 53 110.4 31 86.5 101 120.4 17 85.8 100 107.7 52 -0.108 35
52 N.C. State 105.1 103.0 49 96.1 77 122.7 17 113.0 30 99.6 63 110.2 46 -0.765 81
53 Boston College 104.4 98.3 68 101.5 63 99.5 70 105.5 56 96.1 77 110.2 46 -0.130 36
54 Fresno State 103.5 106.6 41 106.4 46 105.9 49 107.4 47 107.4 36 98.6 76 -0.638 72
55 Northwestern 103.0 99.5 64 102.2 60 102.0 64 97.8 77 106.6 41 105.7 58 -0.188 42
56 UTEP 102.5 101.0 58 100.7 66 100.2 69 89.6 97 106.7 40 103.1 65 -0.947 100
57 Bowling Green 102.4 100.5 60 96.1 78 111.0 36 100.6 67 97.3 73 105.0 60 -0.108 34
58 Memphis 102.2 99.7 63 102.8 58 92.4 90 108.0 46 92.6 84 100.5 71 -0.191 44
59 Miami 102.1 96.6 73 102.1 62 93.5 84 106.0 50 92.5 85 111.8 40 -0.366 56
60 Virginia Tech 102.1 95.2 77 95.8 81 100.7 68 105.7 54 90.6 91 106.1 55 -0.347 55
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 Akron 101.9 104.8 45 103.3 55 107.1 44 103.9 60 104.4 48 97.5 79 -0.715 77
62 Notre Dame 101.8 101.5 54 103.8 53 101.9 65 88.3 101 111.8 27 101.4 68 -0.744 79
63 Buffalo 101.0 99.8 62 95.2 84 115.1 27 93.4 85 106.2 44 105.0 60 -0.591 68
64 South Carolina 100.7 96.5 74 93.8 87 115.0 28 101.9 65 100.6 57 105.6 59 -0.790 83
65 Florida Atlantic 100.5 101.7 52 97.9 69 104.9 53 96.5 82 101.9 53 95.6 83 -0.477 60
66 Western Michigan 100.1 99.9 61 93.4 88 102.8 60 86.5 105 98.1 70 100.0 72 -0.226 46
67 UNLV 100.1 101.0 59 109.1 37 96.5 76 102.0 64 107.2 38 99.4 73 -0.792 84
68 Troy 99.6 98.2 69 96.2 76 93.6 83 99.2 70 92.2 87 95.0 84 -0.013 28
69 UAB 99.1 101.3 57 98.4 67 110.5 37 108.3 45 95.5 78 88.5 99 -1.099 107
70 Kansas State 98.8 97.3 72 97.8 70 92.9 88 92.5 88 97.9 71 104.5 63 -0.684 75
71 Purdue 98.4 93.0 85 92.7 93 102.9 58 101.6 66 92.7 83 104.9 62 -0.505 63
72 Air Force 97.6 92.4 86 94.6 85 91.8 91 102.2 62 100.3 59 102.6 66 -0.166 40
73 Vanderbilt 97.6 88.6 103 96.1 79 88.4 97 105.9 51 80.7 107 110.1 48 -0.521 64
74 Northern Illinois 97.4 92.2 87 87.0 103 95.8 77 97.9 76 82.1 104 94.1 88 -0.025 30
75 Virginia 97.1 92.0 89 104.1 52 86.7 99 98.3 74 95.3 80 107.3 53 -0.585 67
76 Minnesota 96.6 97.4 71 96.9 73 108.5 40 93.2 86 106.9 39 98.8 75 -0.564 66
77 East Carolina 95.7 93.5 84 86.0 105 107.0 45 87.9 104 99.1 66 98.0 77 -0.262 49
78 Hawaii 95.6 101.3 55 105.9 48 94.4 81 104.7 58 103.8 51 90.0 95 -0.850 92
79 Wake Forest 95.6 91.5 94 88.8 100 98.8 72 88.0 102 96.7 76 97.7 78 -0.886 95
80 Tennessee 95.5 91.3 95 104.4 51 80.2 109 105.9 52 85.6 102 101.4 68 -0.535 65
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 Louisville 95.4 98.9 66 101.3 64 95.4 80 105.7 55 95.0 81 91.9 92 -0.670 73
82 Arkansas State 95.2 95.6 76 94.0 86 88.6 96 97.9 75 86.9 99 91.7 93 -0.243 47
83 Texas A&M 95.1 94.1 81 90.3 99 111.9 35 91.9 89 100.1 60 106.0 56 -1.085 104
84 Indiana 94.8 99.1 65 103.4 54 95.5 79 111.5 34 91.4 88 94.1 86 -1.355 110
85 Arizona State 94.6 89.1 100 91.0 97 90.0 94 78.1 114 99.6 62 100.9 70 -0.636 71
86 Syracuse 94.3 93.8 83 92.2 94 108.4 41 116.8 20 77.5 114 97.4 80 -1.398 111
87 Duke 94.1 92.2 88 92.9 92 95.8 78 85.3 107 100.7 56 96.3 81 -0.808 88
88 Toledo 93.5 94.4 80 97.7 71 84.8 106 95.6 83 91.3 89 94.5 85 -0.949 101
89 Ohio 92.7 98.5 67 98.1 68 94.3 82 91.0 94 100.7 55 85.4 105 -0.924 98
90 Kent State 92.4 96.2 75 96.7 75 90.9 93 106.5 49 79.6 109 88.2 100 -0.746 80
91 Utah State 91.9 91.9 91 93.0 91 92.9 86 96.9 81 92.4 86 93.5 89 -0.892 96
92 Michigan 91.9 85.9 108 95.3 83 80.1 110 97.8 78 79.5 110 106.0 57 -0.699 76
93 Kentucky 91.3 88.8 102 97.5 72 81.9 107 95.3 84 89.3 93 93.2 90 -0.838 91
94 Auburn 90.6 87.0 105 82.8 112 101.2 67 91.5 92 87.9 96 96.0 82 -0.803 86
95 New Mexico 90.4 87.6 104 93.2 90 81.5 108 97.5 79 79.1 112 94.1 86 -0.793 85
96 Marshall 90.2 89.9 97 92.2 95 85.0 105 93.1 87 87.0 98 89.7 96 -1.049 103
97 Louisiana Tech 90.1 93.9 82 96.0 80 86.7 100 107.0 48 79.2 111 79.7 112 -0.804 87
98 UCLA 89.5 85.8 109 91.2 96 87.5 98 80.9 111 95.4 79 98.9 74 -0.882 94
99 Middle Tennessee 89.4 89.3 98 86.8 104 91.1 92 75.8 117 98.4 68 85.1 106 -0.497 62
100 Florida International 89.3 91.8 92 83.9 110 105.5 52 78.8 113 101.4 54 86.3 103 -0.743 78
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 Temple 87.7 84.7 112 79.2 115 92.6 89 76.0 116 88.1 95 89.1 97 -0.768 82
102 UL-Monroe 87.6 90.8 96 87.3 102 92.9 87 91.8 90 85.7 101 83.8 107 -0.874 93
103 San Diego State 87.3 89.0 101 102.1 61 72.5 115 90.7 96 89.6 92 86.1 104 -1.405 112
104 SMU 87.2 95.2 78 106.7 45 75.0 114 82.2 110 97.2 74 79.9 111 -1.824 117
105 Iowa State 86.8 91.6 93 93.2 89 85.1 104 89.2 99 90.6 90 80.4 110 -1.535 114
106 Mississippi State 86.3 85.6 110 84.5 109 97.3 74 100.2 68 79.8 108 93.2 90 -0.813 89
107 New Mexico State 86.1 89.2 99 77.4 118 110.3 38 62.3 120 97.4 72 81.1 109 -1.098 106
108 Miami (Ohio) 84.3 85.3 111 85.2 107 89.3 95 82.8 108 87.2 97 79.2 113 -1.668 115
109 Wyoming 83.2 85.9 107 95.4 82 78.1 113 99.0 73 81.3 105 86.6 102 -1.022 102
110 Tulane 82.7 86.6 106 85.3 106 86.4 102 88.0 103 82.4 103 82.2 108 -1.420 113
111 North Texas 81.7 92.0 90 87.6 101 99.2 71 91.4 93 89.1 94 69.0 119 -1.842 118
112 Eastern Michigan 81.1 94.9 79 90.7 98 102.7 61 90.8 95 92.9 82 91.7 93 -0.898 97
113 Idaho 79.6 81.5 113 81.7 114 79.5 112 88.7 100 73.5 115 75.2 117 -1.699 116
114 San Jose State 79.0 75.8 116 78.4 116 65.6 117 67.3 119 78.5 113 75.6 116 -0.823 90
115 Washington 78.5 78.1 114 82.8 111 85.3 103 86.0 106 81.1 106 88.6 98 -2.132 119
116 Western Kentucky 77.3 76.5 115 82.1 113 65.9 116 91.7 91 61.5 117 76.4 115 -1.253 108
117 Army 75.8 72.5 117 77.5 117 52.6 119 82.3 109 47.9 120 77.7 114 -0.939 99
118 Colorado 74.1 65.3 119 60.0 120 79.8 111 73.8 118 61.2 118 87.5 101 -1.091 105
119 Central Florida 70.5 64.8 120 73.4 119 50.7 120 76.4 115 53.9 119 72.7 118 -1.266 109
120 Washington State 68.2 71.7 118 84.5 108 57.7 118 80.5 112 68.8 116 65.6 120 -2.472 120