Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Innovative Statistics

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2009 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/7/10

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed "close," or competitive. The criteria for being "close" are as follows: a game within 24 points in the first quarter, with 21 points in the second quarter, and within 16 points in the second half.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Offense Off. S&P+
 Rk Success
Rate+		 Rk PPP+ Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk
Cincinnati 137.2 1 123.6 5 161.2 3 135.8 3 139.4 7 127.3 10 156.8 1
TCU 128.4 2 125.8 3 141.7 11 124.6 13 144.1 4 124.9 11 132.6 19
Houston 128.1 3 124.1 4 135.1 21 124.5 14 125.0 20 117.0 22 143.6 9
Florida 128.0 4 122.9 7 147.1 7 137.2 2 128.2 17 131.4 2 143.7 8
Stanford 127.8 5 122.0 8 144.0 8 131.5 7 133.1 10 132.3 1 130.3 23
BYU 127.2 6 126.0 2 136.6 16 113.2 32 144.3 3 128.4 7 126.5 26
Arkansas 127.0 7 111.6 26 169.9 1 112.1 36 154.1 1 128.9 6 135.8 13
Virginia Tech 126.7 8 114.6 20 168.4 2 133.2 6 143.6 5 130.7 3 131.6 21
Georgia Tech 125.9 9 120.1 11 153.5 5 135.5 4 130.6 14 129.0 5 148.4 3
Florida State 125.1 10 127.3 1 136.3 17 140.2 1 121.5 23 128.3 8 143.0 10
Penn State 124.9 11 119.6 13 143.2 9 125.6 12 131.5 13 118.9 17 133.1 17
Nevada 124.5 12 114.4 21 125.4 27 126.8 10 105.5 55 116.8 23 133.0 18
Oregon 124.0 13 117.0 15 150.7 6 133.3 5 126.4 18 122.9 14 138.2 12
Alabama 123.9 14 117.6 14 154.1 4 121.2 18 147.1 2 124.4 13 139.8 11
Miami 122.3 15 121.3 9 140.4 12 128.1 9 129.5 15 130.5 4 121.4 32
Wisconsin 121.2 16 123.0 6 128.8 23 122.9 16 131.9 12 121.7 15 122.6 30
Boise State 120.6 17 115.7 18 122.5 33 109.5 40 129.4 16 118.6 18 115.3 43
Texas 119.9 18 120.2 10 142.4 10 124.3 15 132.4 11 120.0 16 151.6 2
Texas A&M 119.9 19 116.3 16 135.4 20 130.6 8 116.6 32 113.9 30 145.5 5
Tennessee 118.7 20 119.6 12 139.3 13 115.6 27 141.4 6 127.8 9 144.3 6
Offense Off. S&P+
 Rk Success
Rate+		 Rk PPP+ Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk
Notre Dame 118.5 21 116.2 17 123.5 31 110.6 37 126.3 19 114.3 28 126.0 27
Auburn 117.5 22 115.2 19 137.1 14 125.9 11 122.2 21 124.6 12 129.3 24
Pittsburgh 117.1 23 106.1 45 136.2 18 120.5 19 118.2 28 115.4 25 124.7 29
Texas Tech 116.4 24 112.7 25 128.1 24 115.7 26 117.6 29 118.5 19 143.9 7
Troy 114.1 25 107.4 34 119.3 37 105.6 55 114.7 33 102.0 64 121.3 33
Michigan State 113.9 26 105.9 46 137.0 15 101.8 70 134.2 9 114.3 27 120.5 36
Kansas 113.7 27 114.1 22 124.2 29 109.4 41 120.3 25 117.4 20 131.4 22
Missouri 112.3 28 107.6 32 126.9 25 107.7 47 120.2 26 114.0 29 104.9 58
Florida Atlantic 111.9 29 108.1 31 116.7 39 105.7 53 116.7 31 99.0 76 135.3 14
Michigan 111.8 30 113.4 24 119.8 36 120.1 20 112.8 36 110.3 36 120.8 34
USC 111.5 31 106.8 38 126.7 26 122.2 17 109.4 43 114.9 26 120.5 37
UAB 111.5 32 104.2 53 116.4 42 117.8 23 104.5 58 104.4 56 113.5 46
Ohio State 111.2 33 107.4 33 131.6 22 116.3 25 120.7 24 112.2 33 106.9 52
Oregon State 110.8 34 106.3 41 116.6 40 108.3 43 112.7 37 108.0 48 118.8 39
Idaho 110.2 35 103.6 58 111.1 49 97.8 76 117.1 30 104.4 57 127.4 25
Georgia 109.9 36 102.8 62 135.5 19 99.9 75 135.7 8 110.0 38 133.6 16
Central Michigan 109.5 37 109.1 30 104.6 63 104.6 56 108.9 44 107.7 49 99.2 70
Connecticut 108.9 38 107.3 35 120.3 35 118.1 22 108.3 47 105.8 53 148.0 4
N.C. State 108.5 39 106.9 37 117.2 38 100.2 73 119.0 27 106.3 50 132.0 20
Fresno State 108.3 40 101.3 64 111.6 48 109.2 42 107.2 52 101.8 65 107.9 50
Offense Off. S&P+
 Rk Success
Rate+		 Rk PPP+ Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk
LSU 108.2 41 110.0 28 122.9 32 110.2 39 121.7 22 113.6 31 115.1 44
Arizona 107.8 42 106.1 43 120.6 34 110.5 38 111.9 39 109.2 41 115.5 42
California 107.7 43 99.8 67 124.4 28 108.2 44 113.5 35 117.3 21 88.0 98
Colorado State 107.5 44 111.0 27 108.3 54 115.2 29 106.7 53 112.8 32 96.6 81
Wake Forest 107.4 45 106.5 39 108.0 55 104.3 57 107.5 51 99.2 75 116.6 41
Toledo 106.6 46 103.9 55 108.4 53 102.6 64 108.8 45 101.4 66 120.8 35
Utah 106.5 47 105.8 47 109.4 52 107.6 48 108.0 49 108.7 44 100.8 67
West Virginia 106.2 48 102.8 61 113.9 45 119.4 21 96.3 79 108.7 43 101.1 66
Hawaii 106.1 49 106.4 40 97.1 77 115.6 28 96.3 78 100.0 73 101.9 61
Southern Miss 105.8 50 102.9 60 104.7 62 101.9 69 108.5 46 106.2 51 101.4 64
Ole Miss 105.7 51 105.2 49 113.8 46 112.3 35 104.4 59 108.5 45 111.3 47
Purdue 105.6 52 104.2 52 113.2 47 107.8 46 106.4 54 108.8 42 100.7 68
Baylor 105.3 53 104.2 51 123.7 30 113.2 33 110.1 42 109.5 39 125.0 28
UTEP 105.3 54 99.7 68 103.9 66 107.1 49 96.7 76 102.9 61 96.8 80
Clemson 105.1 55 101.2 66 116.6 41 113.6 30 103.2 61 110.8 35 105.6 55
Mississippi State 105.0 56 113.9 23 107.9 57 116.6 24 96.5 77 115.6 24 96.3 83
North Texas 104.0 57 107.0 36 99.4 69 113.3 31 93.5 85 109.3 40 83.0 106
Washington 103.5 58 102.6 63 109.8 51 106.5 51 104.3 60 105.4 55 118.2 40
Iowa State 103.4 59 109.6 29 104.4 65 105.8 52 108.1 48 110.1 37 95.1 84
Bowling Green 103.3 60 99.5 69 107.9 56 94.5 86 105.5 56 96.2 82 121.7 31
Offense Off. S&P+
 Rk Success
Rate+		 Rk PPP+ Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk
Kentucky 103.2 61 103.9 57 115.1 44 112.7 34 99.1 71 108.2 46 110.7 48
Oklahoma State 102.9 62 104.1 54 107.4 59 102.9 62 110.2 41 106.0 52 101.8 62
Navy 102.7 63 99.1 70 107.4 60 107.0 50 101.1 64 105.7 54 96.4 82
South Carolina 101.6 64 106.1 44 111.1 50 102.0 68 114.3 34 104.3 58 114.7 45
UNLV 101.6 65 106.3 42 97.3 76 103.1 61 100.6 66 100.2 72 108.1 49
Indiana 101.5 66 105.5 48 107.8 58 102.1 66 110.2 40 104.1 59 119.6 38
Illinois 100.4 67 102.9 59 101.4 68 103.9 58 100.2 69 111.8 34 93.1 90
East Carolina 100.4 68 103.9 56 98.8 71 107.8 45 98.6 73 102.0 63 99.1 71
South Florida 100.0 69 95.0 87 104.6 64 102.0 67 98.5 74 98.4 78 105.0 57
Tulsa 99.9 70 96.8 78 98.5 72 93.6 91 100.2 68 94.5 84 99.0 72
Oklahoma 99.9 71 97.7 72 115.4 43 94.4 87 112.5 38 101.3 67 134.3 15
Temple 99.0 72 93.3 92 106.8 61 101.7 71 94.9 81 99.5 74 97.8 76
Utah State 98.2 73 95.5 83 97.1 78 95.8 80 98.0 75 94.6 83 107.9 51
Buffalo 98.1 74 97.2 74 98.0 75 95.3 83 100.1 70 100.9 68 90.5 92
Northern Illinois 97.3 75 93.5 91 95.6 79 94.3 88 98.8 72 93.9 90 98.5 74
Syracuse 97.3 76 101.3 65 99.2 70 100.9 72 100.2 67 108.1 47 81.2 108
Northwestern 97.1 77 104.2 50 91.8 86 87.9 102 108.0 50 93.0 91 106.1 53
Middle Tennessee 97.0 78 91.7 100 94.1 84 95.3 82 88.8 94 88.7 99 94.8 86
UL-Monroe 96.2 79 95.2 85 89.8 91 93.4 93 93.0 87 91.5 96 101.3 65
Louisiana Tech 95.7 80 95.3 84 91.5 87 97.1 78 90.4 90 91.1 98 93.9 88
Offense Off. S&P+
 Rk Success
Rate+		 Rk PPP+ Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk
Air Force 95.6 81 98.7 71 93.7 85 100.1 74 93.1 86 98.7 77 85.0 103
Iowa 95.0 82 95.0 86 103.8 67 97.4 77 101.1 65 100.4 70 97.6 77
Marshall 94.9 83 96.0 81 94.5 83 102.5 65 90.2 91 92.5 94 89.7 94
Kansas State 94.1 84 96.3 79 94.9 82 96.7 79 91.8 89 100.3 71 94.9 85
SMU 93.4 85 90.7 102 86.2 97 90.0 100 86.1 99 97.2 81 73.3 114
Boston College 93.3 86 92.7 96 98.4 73 89.8 101 101.7 63 94.4 87 101.7 63
Memphis 92.1 87 96.2 80 88.3 94 103.2 60 85.0 101 102.3 62 89.2 96
Louisville 91.8 88 96.9 77 89.9 90 102.9 63 87.2 97 94.0 89 104.6 59
UL-Lafayette 91.6 89 95.5 82 82.9 101 85.5 107 94.1 82 86.0 108 90.4 93
Central Florida 91.6 90 89.5 105 90.6 89 91.1 98 88.8 93 92.8 92 85.8 101
Duke 91.4 91 92.8 95 89.7 92 64.8 119 105.5 57 88.0 101 105.2 56
Western Michigan 90.6 92 97.1 75 72.9 112 86.8 104 84.5 102 87.2 102 88.2 97
Nebraska 90.1 93 90.8 101 98.3 74 93.9 89 93.6 84 100.8 69 103.4 60
San Diego State 90.0 94 87.9 108 91.3 88 68.8 118 102.3 62 86.0 107 105.9 54
Maryland 89.6 95 97.4 73 88.2 95 90.8 99 96.2 80 94.4 85 98.9 73
Minnesota 89.1 96 92.6 97 95.6 80 93.5 92 94.1 83 97.3 80 93.9 87
Rutgers 88.2 97 80.8 115 95.4 81 95.8 81 81.3 106 97.5 79 68.5 117
Arkansas State 88.0 98 90.5 103 81.9 104 83.5 110 87.6 96 94.3 88 76.7 110
North Carolina 87.5 99 92.9 94 82.1 103 94.9 85 82.9 104 87.2 103 86.7 99
Tulane 87.5 100 94.1 89 76.5 108 84.9 109 87.7 95 87.0 104 77.4 109
Offense Off. S&P+
 Rk Success
Rate+		 Rk PPP+ Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk
UCLA 86.7 101 92.1 99 83.0 100 86.4 105 89.8 92 94.4 86 84.9 104
Western Kentucky 86.4 102 87.8 109 82.3 102 103.3 59 64.9 116 88.2 100 86.5 100
Virginia 86.4 103 97.1 76 83.2 98 105.6 54 79.1 108 103.8 60 72.5 115
New Mexico 86.1 104 94.7 88 83.1 99 95.0 84 85.8 100 91.4 97 81.4 107
Wyoming 85.4 105 92.5 98 81.1 105 92.3 95 82.5 105 85.4 109 97.2 78
Akron 85.3 106 93.2 93 74.7 109 92.1 97 78.6 109 92.6 93 84.3 105
Ohio 85.1 107 81.0 114 89.4 93 77.8 113 92.0 88 80.7 114 97.9 75
Colorado 84.5 108 87.8 110 87.3 96 92.6 94 83.3 103 86.2 106 99.9 69
Florida International 83.3 109 89.7 104 77.2 107 79.7 112 86.5 98 84.4 112 96.8 79
Arizona State 82.9 110 87.3 111 73.0 111 87.8 103 76.6 112 91.5 95 74.6 111
Vanderbilt 82.1 111 89.4 106 77.9 106 92.1 96 74.7 113 86.4 105 89.7 95
Miami (Ohio)
 81.5 112 93.5 90 68.2 114 86.0 106 80.1 107 84.8 110 93.8 89
Eastern Michigan 81.4 113 89.1 107 70.4 113 93.8 90 67.1 115 80.5 115 85.4 102
Kent State 78.8 114 77.8 117 73.5 110 73.4 116 77.2 111 82.6 113 69.4 116
San Jose State 77.6 115 86.1 112 66.0 115 75.5 115 77.7 110 77.3 117 73.8 112
Ball State 75.6 116 81.7 113 64.5 117 85.1 108 61.4 118 74.5 119 93.0 91
Rice 73.7 117 80.0 116 65.7 116 82.4 111 67.5 114 84.7 111 73.4 113
Army 72.7 118 76.4 118 62.5 118 76.4 114 62.0 117 74.8 118 59.5 118
New Mexico State 62.0 119 73.8 119 42.8 119 71.0 117 43.3 120 67.5 120 47.2 120
Washington State 56.2 120 67.9 120 42.2 120 63.4 120 53.1 119 78.4 116 47.8 119