Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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2009 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/7/10

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed "close," or competitive. The criteria for being "close" are as follows: a game within 24 points in the first quarter, with 21 points in the second quarter, and within 16 points in the second half.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

RK TEAM RECORD OFF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
OFF.		 RK PASS.
OFF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
1 Cincinnati 12-1 134.5 2 1 134.5 5 140.5 7 127.3 10 156.8 1
2 Virginia Tech 10-3 134.0 3 1 136.3 3 146.9 3 130.7 3 131.6 21
3 Arkansas 8-5 130.1 1 -2 113.4 31 152.8 1 128.9 6 135.8 13
4 TCU 12-1 129.9 5 1 126.6 11 146.0 4 124.9 11 132.6 19
5 Alabama 14-0 129.6 9 4 125.7 13 145.6 5 124.4 13 139.8 11
6 Florida 13-1 129.0 8 2 138.4 2 128.9 15 131.4 2 143.7 8
7 Georgia Tech 11-3 128.2 7 0 135.2 4 127.4 16 129.0 5 148.4 3
8 BYU 11-2 126.2 4 -4 110.7 37 147.2 2 128.4 7 126.5 26
9 Florida State 7-6 126.2 15 6 139.0 1 122.8 20 128.3 8 143.0 10
10 Stanford 8-5 125.9 11 1 132.4 8 130.1 11 132.3 1 130.3 23
11 Oregon 10-3 124.4 14 3 133.3 7 121.9 22 122.9 14 138.2 12
12 Miami-FL 9-4 124.3 10 -2 128.1 9 129.2 14 130.5 4 121.4 32
13 Texas 13-1 124.1 12 -1 127.3 10 129.4 12 120.0 16 151.6 2
14 Tennessee 7-6 123.9 16 2 116.5 27 142.0 6 127.8 9 144.3 6
15 Texas A&M 6-7 123.2 6 -9 133.9 6 120.5 24 113.9 30 145.5 5
16 Houston 10-4 123.2 17 1 124.6 15 124.0 18 117.0 22 143.6 9
17 Penn State 11-2 121.8 13 -4 126.3 12 126.7 17 118.9 17 133.1 17
18 Wisconsin 10-3 119.9 19 1 123.1 17 130.2 10 121.7 15 122.6 30
19 Auburn 8-5 117.7 18 -1 120.8 19 123.5 19 124.6 12 129.3 24
20 Pittsburgh 10-3 115.8 23 3 123.3 16 118.9 26 115.4 25 124.7 29
RK TEAM RECORD OFF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
OFF.		 RK PASS.
OFF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
21 Nevada 8-5 115.0 20 -1 125.4 14 107.4 51 116.8 23 133.0 18
22 Texas Tech 9-4 114.8 24 2 116.6 26 117.5 28 118.5 19 143.9 7
23 Michigan State 6-7 114.6 22 -1 101.4 72 135.6 8 114.3 27 120.5 36
24 Boise State 14-0 114.0 28 4 108.5 44 129.2 13 118.6 18 115.3 43
25 Notre Dame 6-6 112.7 25 0 109.6 38 122.7 21 114.3 28 126.0 27
26 Ohio State 11-2 112.5 29 3 117.2 23 118.3 27 112.2 33 106.9 52
27 Missouri 8-5 111.0 26 -1 108.7 43 119.8 25 114.0 29 104.9 58
28 USC 9-4 110.7 32 4 122.2 18 109.1 47 114.9 26 120.5 37
29 Georgia 8-5 110.7 21 -8 98.8 75 134.1 9 110.0 38 133.6 16
30 LSU 9-4 110.1 40 10 108.8 42 120.9 23 113.6 31 115.1 44
31 Kansas 5-7 110.0 27 -4 106.1 48 115.8 32 117.4 20 131.4 22
32 Michigan 5-7 109.5 30 -2 119.0 21 110.0 44 110.3 36 120.8 34
33 Connecticut 8-5 109.1 31 -2 117.1 24 110.6 42 105.8 53 148.0 4
34 Colorado State 3-9 108.9 35 1 117.0 25 111.2 40 112.8 32 96.6 81
35 Florida Atlantic 5-7 108.7 34 -1 107.6 45 116.6 31 99.0 76 135.3 14
36 Troy 9-4 108.3 39 3 104.8 53 115.1 33 102.0 64 121.3 33
37 Mississippi State 5-7 107.7 36 -1 118.8 22 93.4 85 115.6 24 96.3 83
38 Oregon State 8-5 107.3 33 -5 109.3 40 112.5 37 108.0 48 118.8 39
39 NC State 5-7 107.1 37 -2 102.4 61 116.9 30 106.3 50 132.0 20
40 Baylor 4-8 106.4 41 1 111.0 33 109.2 46 109.5 39 125.0 28
RK TEAM RECORD OFF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
OFF.		 RK PASS.
OFF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
41 Arizona 8-5 106.4 43 2 108.9 41 110.8 41 109.2 41 115.5 42
42 Utah 10-3 104.7 46 4 106.0 49 112.4 38 108.7 44 100.8 67
43 Kentucky 7-6 104.5 44 1 114.1 30 97.5 75 108.2 46 110.7 48
44 California 8-5 104.3 52 8 104.7 54 112.5 36 117.3 21 88.0 98
45 West Virginia 9-4 104.3 42 -3 120.5 20 96.6 79 108.7 43 101.1 66
46 Fresno State 8-5 104.0 47 1 110.9 35 110.0 43 101.8 65 107.9 50
47 Idaho 7-6 103.6 56 9 98.7 76 117.1 29 104.4 57 127.4 25
48 Clemson 9-5 103.4 53 5 111.5 32 103.3 60 110.8 35 105.6 55
49 South Carolina 7-6 103.4 38 -11 102.1 65 112.6 35 104.3 58 114.7 45
50 Iowa State 7-6 103.3 54 4 105.3 50 108.9 48 110.1 37 95.1 84
51 Indiana 4-8 103.1 51 0 103.3 58 111.4 39 104.1 59 119.6 38
52 Ole Miss 9-4 102.9 48 -4 110.8 36 101.8 63 108.5 45 111.3 47
53 Purdue 5-7 102.2 50 -3 104.1 56 105.6 58 108.8 42 100.7 68
54 Central Michigan 12-2 102.1 55 1 101.6 71 109.2 45 107.7 49 99.2 70
55 UAB 5-7 102.0 57 2 115.4 29 99.5 72 104.4 56 113.5 46
56 Oklahoma 8-5 101.9 45 -11 94.3 88 114.6 34 101.3 67 134.3 15
57 Hawaii 6-7 101.1 59 2 116.5 28 100.2 70 100.0 73 101.9 61
58 Wake Forest 5-7 101.0 62 4 99.8 74 106.9 54 99.2 75 116.6 41
59 Oklahoma State 9-4 100.4 49 -10 102.3 63 108.5 50 106.0 52 101.8 62
60 Toledo 5-7 100.1 58 -2 101.8 68 106.4 57 101.4 66 120.8 35
RK TEAM RECORD OFF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
OFF.		 RK PASS.
OFF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
61 Bowling Green 7-6 100.0 61 0 93.4 91 107.1 53 96.2 82 121.7 31
62 Southern Miss 7-6 99.2 72 10 101.7 70 106.7 55 106.2 51 101.4 64
63 North Texas 2-10 99.0 66 3 110.9 34 93.7 83 109.3 40 83.0 106
64 Illinois 3-9 99.0 60 -4 104.9 52 101.1 67 111.8 34 93.1 90
65 Syracuse 4-8 98.9 63 -2 102.3 62 102.8 61 108.1 47 81.2 108
66 Navy 10-4 98.7 70 4 106.5 47 101.6 65 105.7 54 96.4 82
67 UNLV 5-7 98.4 67 0 101.9 66 101.2 66 100.2 72 108.1 49
68 East Carolina 9-5 98.1 64 -4 109.4 39 97.1 76 102.0 63 99.1 71
69 Washington 5-7 98.0 65 -4 102.3 64 100.3 69 105.4 55 118.2 40
70 UTEP 4-8 97.9 68 -2 107.0 46 96.7 77 102.9 61 96.8 80
71 South Florida 8-5 96.4 69 -2 102.5 60 99.4 73 98.4 78 105.0 57
72 Tulsa 5-7 95.8 73 1 95.8 82 101.8 62 94.5 84 99.0 72
73 Temple 9-4 95.7 76 3 102.8 59 93.4 84 99.5 74 97.8 76
74 Northwestern 8-5 95.4 75 1 88.0 101 108.6 49 93.0 91 106.1 53
75 Buffalo 5-7 94.6 71 -4 95.1 84 101.6 64 100.9 68 90.5 92
76 Air Force 8-5 93.9 80 4 100.7 73 92.0 87 98.7 77 85.0 103
77 Iowa 11-2 93.8 74 -3 95.6 83 100.5 68 100.4 70 97.6 77
78 Utah State 4-8 93.5 79 1 96.5 80 98.6 74 94.6 83 107.9 51
79 Northern Illinois 7-6 91.9 78 -1 95.1 85 99.5 71 93.9 90 98.5 74
80 Marshall 7-6 91.9 77 -3 101.9 67 90.3 90 92.5 94 89.7 94
RK TEAM RECORD OFF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
OFF.		 RK PASS.
OFF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
81 Boston College 8-5 91.4 83 2 86.7 103 104.4 59 94.4 87 101.7 63
82 Louisiana Tech 4-8 90.8 82 0 97.3 78 91.9 88 91.1 98 93.9 88
83 Maryland 2-10 90.2 81 -2 90.2 100 96.6 78 94.4 85 98.9 73
84 Middle Tennessee 10-3 89.7 95 11 97.7 77 86.8 96 88.7 99 94.8 86
85 Kansas State 6-6 89.5 86 1 94.5 87 89.8 92 100.3 71 94.9 85
86 Minnesota 6-7 89.4 84 -2 92.0 96 94.5 80 97.3 80 93.9 87
87 Nebraska 10-4 89.4 88 1 92.8 93 92.7 86 100.8 69 103.4 60
88 Duke 5-7 89.0 90 2 64.4 120 107.3 52 88.0 101 105.2 56
89 Louisville 4-8 89.0 85 -4 101.7 69 85.5 99 94.0 89 104.6 59
90 San Diego State 4-8 88.4 93 3 69.2 118 106.7 56 86.0 107 105.9 54
91 UL-Monroe 6-6 88.4 87 -4 93.2 92 90.9 89 91.5 96 101.3 65
92 Virginia 3-9 87.9 91 -1 105.2 51 79.1 111 103.8 60 72.5 115
93 New Mexico 1-11 87.9 94 1 94.9 86 88.3 94 91.4 97 81.4 107
94 Wyoming 7-6 87.7 89 -5 94.0 89 88.4 93 85.4 109 97.2 78
95 Memphis 2-10 87.7 92 -3 103.4 57 81.5 104 102.3 62 89.2 96
96 Central Florida 8-5 86.6 99 3 92.2 94 87.6 95 92.8 92 85.8 101
97 North Carolina 8-5 86.3 101 4 96.1 81 84.4 103 87.2 103 86.7 99
98 UL-Lafayette 6-6 85.6 98 0 84.2 109 94.0 81 86.0 108 90.4 93
99 SMU 8-5 85.3 107 8 91.2 98 85.4 101 97.2 81 73.3 114
100 UCLA 7-6 85.3 96 -4 86.2 105 90.0 91 94.4 86 84.9 104
RK TEAM RECORD OFF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
OFF.		 RK PASS.
OFF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
101 Rutgers 9-4 84.7 111 10 96.8 79 81.4 105 97.5 79 68.5 117
102 Western Michigan 5-7 83.6 100 -2 86.8 102 85.2 102 87.2 102 88.2 97
103 Tulane 3-9 82.9 105 2 86.6 104 85.5 100 87.0 104 77.4 109
104 Western Kentucky 0-12 82.8 104 0 104.5 55 65.0 116 88.2 100 86.5 100
105 Colorado 3-9 82.6 102 -3 91.1 99 81.1 107 86.2 106 99.9 69
106 Akron 3-9 82.3 103 -3 92.0 95 79.5 110 92.6 93 84.3 105
107 Vanderbilt 2-10 82.1 106 -1 93.9 90 75.0 113 86.4 105 89.7 95
108 Ohio 9-5 82.0 97 -11 76.6 114 93.8 82 80.7 114 97.9 75
109 Arkansas State 4-8 81.7 108 -1 82.7 110 85.8 98 94.3 88 76.7 110
110 Miami-OH 1-11 80.3 109 -1 85.9 106 81.1 106 84.8 110 93.8 89
111 Florida International 3-9 80.3 110 -1 78.8 112 86.2 97 84.4 112 96.8 79
112 Arizona State 4-8 76.6 112 0 84.5 108 76.0 112 91.5 95 74.6 111
113 Eastern Michigan 1-11 76.5 113 0 91.7 97 66.0 115 80.5 115 85.4 102
114 San Jose State 2-10 75.4 114 0 76.0 115 79.8 108 77.3 117 73.8 112
115 Kent State 5-7 72.8 115 0 70.7 116 79.7 109 82.6 113 69.4 116
116 Ball State 2-10 71.8 116 0 84.7 107 62.5 118 74.5 119 93.0 91
117 Rice 2-10 70.6 117 0 82.3 111 66.1 114 84.7 111 73.4 113
118 Army 4-8 68.3 118 0 76.8 113 62.6 117 74.8 118 59.5 118
119 New Mexico State 4-9 56.7 119 0 69.6 117 43.3 120 67.5 120 47.2 120
120 Washington State 1-11 50.6 120 0 66.4 119 43.4 119 78.4 116 47.8 119