Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2009 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/7/10

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 Alabama 142.3 140.9 6 124.5 4 124.0 20 118.9 14 134.2 6 148.0 2 +0.630 6
2 Boise State 140.1 157.9 1 114.3 24 112.5 42 106.0 43 121.8 18 119.4 31 +0.822 2
3 Houston 140.0 153.5 2 120.3 14 136.8 4 118.2 17 121.2 19 121.1 28 +0.426 13
4 Texas 129.7 113.8 32 114.5 23 139.4 3 116.3 19 127.0 13 153.2 1 +0.705 4
5 Cincinnati 132.0 135.9 10 125.5 3 146.2 1 125.6 9 132.6 8 128.9 13 +0.457 12
6 Stanford 131.6 134.7 12 123.6 9 125.2 18 121.7 12 133.1 7 126.2 19 +0.042 27
7 Wake Forest 125.4 143.6 5 99.0 69 115.3 36 101.0 66 104.8 54 116.1 39 -0.104 40
8 Florida State 126.3 135.1 11 122.5 11 135.3 5 128.0 3 124.6 15 124.2 22 -0.609 79
9 Florida 126.7 115.6 28 129.7 1 112.8 40 131.9 1 123.4 16 141.8 3 +1.043 1
10 Oregon State 128.9 139.2 7 101.5 62 118.7 28 104.2 53 108.3 41 113.8 46 -0.044 38
11 TCU 130.8 118.4 24 124.2 7 131.4 9 121.2 13 138.9 3 134.5 7 +0.709 3
12 Bowling Green 125.2 146.9 3 97.3 77 115.5 34 91.1 98 103.8 56 104.6 59 -0.551 75
13 Utah 124.7 138.1 8 105.2 45 107.7 54 105.1 49 107.6 47 111.5 50 +0.017 33
14 Pittsburgh 126.1 125.3 16 115.0 22 108.4 52 117.4 18 113.3 29 123.9 23 +0.281 20
15 Wisconsin 122.5 121.5 20 117.6 16 120.7 26 116.1 20 129.6 10 126.1 20 +0.155 23
16 UNLV 122.8 146.4 4 97.9 72 108.7 50 98.9 76 101.2 66 100.7 68 -0.868 97
17 Notre Dame 120.8 125.0 17 113.8 26 119.8 27 109.9 35 121.1 20 121.5 27 -0.022 35
18 Ohio State 124.5 115.9 26 111.9 28 114.3 39 115.2 24 113.8 27 130.0 11 +0.425 14
19 Kansas 119.3 128.1 14 107.5 37 127.9 13 102.5 58 116.7 24 117.2 35 -0.167 47
20 Virginia Tech 120.1 102.6 60 124.3 5 134.4 6 125.8 6 140.4 2 141.8 4 +0.486 11
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Georgia Tech 119.0 113.8 33 123.9 8 125.5 16 127.7 4 134.5 5 128.5 14 +0.075 26
22 Arkansas 115.2 105.0 54 126.3 2 125.6 15 103.9 54 140.8 1 136.8 6 +0.135 25
23 Colorado State 118.0 137.3 9 116.4 19 89.5 96 112.8 27 107.5 48 103.9 62 -0.679 86
24 Connecticut 120.5 128.8 13 100.5 63 124.3 19 110.9 33 108.1 42 111.3 51 -0.275 57
25 Miami 116.0 114.3 30 122.6 10 115.2 37 115.4 22 123.3 17 123.8 25 +0.028 31
26 Central Michigan 117.7 118.4 23 104.6 48 106.8 57 101.4 63 106.9 50 119.0 32 +0.610 8
27 Georgia 112.8 106.8 49 108.3 35 126.3 14 100.1 72 128.7 11 130.6 9 +0.242 21
28 Oregon 111.8 98.2 67 124.3 6 123.2 22 130.9 2 119.1 21 139.0 5 +0.350 18
29 Texas Tech 115.1 103.8 57 111.0 29 129.4 12 108.1 39 115.3 25 131.4 8 +0.549 9
30 BYU 114.9 107.2 46 120.7 13 130.2 11 106.1 42 137.2 4 128.0 15 +0.513 10
31 Tennessee 114.4 110.8 38 117.6 17 125.2 17 110.9 32 130.1 9 123.8 24 -0.186 49
32 Missouri 115.6 113.1 35 117.3 18 101.8 66 105.7 45 118.2 22 121.0 29 -0.043 37
33 Texas A&M 112.9 106.8 48 107.9 36 141.4 2 123.4 11 112.8 31 126.9 18 -0.206 52
34 Michigan State 112.6 110.0 39 116.0 21 115.4 35 100.7 69 128.3 12 123.2 26 -0.155 45
35 Penn State 119.8 105.0 53 120.7 12 131.5 8 124.3 10 124.8 14 127.6 16 +0.690 5
36 California 114.9 124.3 19 114.2 25 95.7 76 105.8 44 111.7 33 108.2 56 -0.142 44
37 Clemson 114.5 115.1 29 105.8 43 103.2 58 111.6 29 100.9 67 116.9 36 -0.133 41
38 Auburn 111.7 102.3 61 119.0 15 118.1 30 125.7 8 114.2 26 129.3 12 -0.026 36
39 Idaho 114.4 124.5 18 103.2 54 116.6 32 96.4 83 117.2 23 101.4 66 -0.454 68
40 Florida Atlantic 114.5 125.6 15 99.5 67 133.2 7 105.1 50 111.9 32 99.7 71 -0.722 88
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 Navy 110.0 106.3 51 100.1 65 91.8 88 104.5 51 101.8 60 118.1 33 +0.422 15
42 Iowa State 111.0 120.7 21 109.8 32 96.6 73 105.4 48 106.8 51 102.5 63 -0.490 70
43 Iowa 114.0 107.6 44 97.5 76 100.6 69 93.8 91 103.3 57 114.8 42 +0.001 34
44 Ole Miss 112.7 107.3 45 104.0 52 118.4 29 112.0 28 105.8 52 113.6 47 +0.304 19
45 LSU 103.6 93.5 79 106.5 40 111.9 44 107.3 40 111.2 35 127.1 17 +0.019 32
46 Fresno State 110.5 109.4 41 104.4 51 110.7 48 110.0 34 108.0 43 110.8 52 +0.154 24
47 West Virginia 107.3 112.2 37 103.1 55 111.3 47 115.8 21 98.6 72 107.7 58 -0.140 43
48 Purdue 107.0 106.4 50 110.2 31 100.9 67 106.7 41 105.5 53 113.0 48 -0.492 71
49 Arizona 108.6 103.1 59 107.5 38 108.6 51 108.5 37 107.1 49 115.6 40 -0.307 62
50 Troy 109.4 104.4 55 106.1 42 120.9 25 100.5 71 113.1 30 113.0 48 -0.296 59
51 Oklahoma State 104.7 96.3 69 98.8 70 111.9 43 101.6 62 107.8 46 120.4 30 +0.036 28
52 Buffalo 106.7 109.1 43 105.2 46 87.0 101 98.7 78 100.7 68 104.3 61 -0.099 39
53 Temple 109.4 112.4 36 99.1 68 92.5 87 99.0 75 95.8 82 101.0 67 -0.302 60
54 Wyoming 102.6 117.1 25 82.4 113 97.1 72 94.3 88 79.7 111 95.9 81 -1.028 106
55 USC 106.4 98.3 66 116.2 20 108.3 53 118.8 15 110.5 38 114.6 44 -0.137 42
56 East Carolina 110.1 115.8 27 100.3 64 93.4 86 102.3 61 98.0 74 94.9 85 -0.675 85
57 South Carolina 104.1 95.1 74 102.8 56 111.7 46 102.5 59 107.9 44 115.4 41 -0.453 67
58 Nevada 105.9 95.1 73 110.7 30 130.4 10 127.4 5 98.4 73 114.8 43 +0.629 7
59 Utah State 107.4 118.8 22 94.5 88 102.7 61 98.3 79 97.5 76 91.0 97 -0.814 95
60 Oklahoma 109.7 78.2 106 97.8 73 114.7 38 90.4 102 110.7 37 130.6 9 +0.377 16
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 Marshall 107.1 113.9 31 95.1 85 93.4 85 100.0 73 91.2 90 94.6 86 -0.665 83
62 UTEP 104.5 109.8 40 102.6 57 103.0 59 105.5 47 98.7 71 98.0 77 -0.390 64
63 Kentucky 102.2 90.8 84 104.5 50 102.9 60 111.1 30 95.5 84 116.1 38 -0.448 66
64 Nebraska 110.6 82.1 100 96.4 79 91.0 92 93.6 92 95.8 81 124.3 21 +0.370 17
65 Boston College 100.2 88.8 90 93.3 92 96.3 75 89.3 103 101.4 64 116.4 37 +0.034 29
66 Northwestern 102.7 103.2 58 94.7 86 106.9 56 85.1 109 107.8 45 102.0 64 -0.271 55
67 Baylor 97.6 94.3 75 109.7 33 116.0 33 111.1 31 111.0 36 110.6 53 -0.765 91
68 Washington 99.6 96.3 70 102.3 60 111.7 45 108.3 38 102.8 58 108.1 57 -0.399 65
69 South Florida 102.3 99.6 63 97.8 74 101.9 65 103.5 55 97.4 77 104.5 60 +0.029 30
70 N.C. State 99.0 83.5 98 99.7 66 121.9 23 98.8 77 111.5 34 117.5 34 -0.158 46
71 Mississippi State 99.0 92.2 80 112.9 27 100.7 68 118.4 16 97.8 75 108.7 54 -0.845 96
72 Michigan 98.0 91.2 82 106.4 41 117.7 31 114.2 25 109.0 40 108.7 55 -0.305 61
73 Air Force 102.1 85.3 96 95.1 84 91.3 91 101.0 65 92.5 89 114.4 45 +0.239 22
74 UCLA 101.7 106.1 52 97.7 75 84.2 105 91.3 96 93.0 88 93.5 88 -0.542 74
75 Toledo 99.7 100.6 62 101.7 61 123.5 21 101.0 64 113.3 28 97.5 79 -0.757 90
76 Ohio 99.8 106.9 47 86.4 109 91.5 90 83.4 111 90.9 91 90.6 98 -0.574 76
77 Memphis 99.1 113.5 34 93.4 91 94.1 83 100.8 68 89.0 96 83.8 107 -1.158 109
78 Hawaii 98.8 109.3 42 103.3 53 110.6 49 115.2 23 99.3 69 86.9 104 -0.989 105
79 Duke 97.9 96.0 72 89.2 103 102.5 62 67.6 120 104.1 55 98.9 74 -0.769 92
80 North Texas 98.3 104.1 56 108.9 34 94.7 79 112.9 26 96.7 80 89.8 100 -0.964 104
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 Minnesota 95.2 98.3 65 93.3 93 96.3 74 93.9 90 94.6 85 95.5 83 -0.898 99
82 Southern Miss 99.0 96.2 71 102.5 58 99.0 71 104.3 52 101.5 63 95.6 82 -0.274 56
83 Colorado 92.8 88.8 91 88.2 106 93.9 84 94.1 89 84.9 102 101.6 65 -0.738 89
84 Vanderbilt 92.3 96.6 68 88.7 105 85.0 103 97.5 81 75.3 113 92.0 94 -0.936 103
85 Syracuse 92.5 87.5 94 105.1 47 88.6 98 100.6 70 101.7 62 98.2 76 -0.718 87
86 Rutgers 96.8 93.5 78 95.4 83 72.1 115 91.1 97 84.5 103 92.1 93 -0.281 58
87 Indiana 93.9 91.4 81 104.6 49 112.7 41 100.9 67 110.4 39 94.1 87 -1.077 108
88 Louisville 90.7 90.0 87 96.2 80 94.9 78 103.0 56 90.9 92 95.3 84 -0.928 102
89 Middle Tennessee 92.7 90.9 83 90.4 98 102.1 64 99.3 74 87.2 98 92.6 90 -0.190 51
90 North Carolina 92.6 82.0 101 89.4 102 87.9 100 93.4 93 85.7 100 100.6 69 -0.255 54
91 SMU 92.2 90.1 86 95.5 82 78.8 111 88.5 105 87.8 97 92.2 92 -0.187 50
92 Kansas State 92.1 89.6 89 96.0 81 94.2 82 97.4 82 94.0 86 91.7 95 -0.906 100
93 UAB 90.8 81.7 102 106.6 39 121.8 24 125.7 7 101.7 61 99.4 72 -0.517 73
94 UL-Lafayette 89.9 94.1 77 87.5 107 89.1 97 85.0 110 93.5 87 86.9 104 -0.585 78
95 Maryland 87.1 83.4 99 90.4 100 100.4 70 91.1 99 95.6 83 96.5 80 -0.921 101
96 Western Michigan 92.9 98.4 64 89.2 104 90.9 93 90.6 100 85.0 101 80.8 113 -0.775 93
97 New Mexico 86.6 90.5 85 96.7 78 84.4 104 102.3 60 84.1 105 88.5 102 -1.410 112
98 Central Florida 92.2 88.7 92 93.6 90 82.5 108 89.1 104 89.8 94 89.6 101 -0.654 82
99 Northern Illinois 92.6 79.6 104 94.0 89 95.5 77 95.2 87 98.8 70 97.5 78 -0.171 48
100 UL-Monroe 89.2 87.5 93 97.9 71 91.7 89 96.1 85 97.3 78 88.2 103 -0.362 63
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 Louisiana Tech 86.9 75.1 111 90.3 101 94.5 81 97.7 80 86.4 99 100.5 70 -0.240 53
102 Tulsa 90.8 83.9 97 93.1 94 107.4 55 95.5 86 97.2 79 91.6 96 -0.459 69
103 Illinois 86.0 76.1 109 105.5 44 94.6 80 105.5 46 101.9 59 99.1 73 -0.650 81
104 Virginia 86.1 75.7 110 102.4 59 64.3 117 102.6 57 77.8 112 98.3 75 -0.897 98
105 Kent State 87.1 94.2 76 83.7 111 79.5 110 75.8 117 83.5 106 78.0 115 -0.666 84
106 Akron 85.2 89.9 88 92.0 95 78.2 112 93.1 94 82.5 108 81.2 110 -1.179 111
107 San Diego State 84.1 77.5 107 85.5 110 102.3 63 71.7 118 101.4 65 92.3 91 -0.584 77
108 Arizona State 84.9 78.2 105 91.3 97 73.9 114 92.8 95 80.9 110 90.1 99 -0.501 72
109 Ball State 84.1 86.2 95 77.0 117 83.3 107 90.6 101 66.0 117 80.9 111 -1.066 107
110 Miami (Ohio) 79.5 72.5 113 86.8 108 89.7 95 87.3 107 83.4 107 93.0 89 -1.158 110
111 Western Kentucky 82.6 80.8 103 90.4 99 87.9 99 109.2 36 68.0 115 81.5 109 -1.628 116
112 Arkansas State 79.9 71.5 117 94.6 87 77.8 113 86.2 108 90.5 93 84.0 106 -0.646 80
113 Tulane 76.2 72.2 115 91.7 96 82.2 109 88.4 106 89.2 95 82.8 108 -1.555 115
114 San Jose State 73.4 72.3 114 80.0 114 83.7 106 78.6 115 80.9 109 78.8 114 -1.426 114
115 Eastern Michigan 74.7 77.0 108 82.6 112 85.6 102 96.3 84 72.2 114 71.1 119 -2.143 120
116 Florida International 74.3 66.7 118 79.5 116 90.2 94 80.3 114 84.2 104 80.9 111 -1.410 113
117 Army 75.0 71.6 116 79.7 115 60.2 118 82.1 112 64.2 118 74.7 117 -0.785 94
118 Rice 68.1 61.7 119 76.0 118 71.6 116 82.1 113 67.8 116 74.8 116 -1.865 119
119 New Mexico State 67.2 74.7 112 69.8 120 59.0 119 77.0 116 53.1 120 60.3 120 -1.760 117
120 Washington State 55.3 42.1 120 73.1 119 49.0 120 71.5 119 57.8 119 74.6 118 -1.795 118