Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2010 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/10/11

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 Auburn 144.3 139.1 1 137.0 1 162.9 2 146.0 1 153.0 1 170.2 1 +0.869 9
2 Boise State 130.5 134.1 2 130.8 4 134.6 3 115.7 20 144.8 3 147.5 6 +1.601 1
3 Stanford 135.0 129.0 4 117.1 13 170.0 1 112.0 30 150.7 2 148.6 3 +1.289 3
4 Alabama 137.5 130.0 3 132.8 2 129.5 10 129.5 3 133.4 6 145.8 7 +1.276 4
5 Arkansas 131.9 127.0 5 131.6 3 130.4 9 120.4 10 134.7 5 148.4 4 +0.303 20
6 Oklahoma 125.5 113.7 20 115.3 21 122.6 22 98.7 74 130.6 8 152.4 2 +0.348 18
7 Virginia Tech 127.8 116.7 15 115.4 20 125.5 19 120.0 12 122.2 15 148.3 5 +0.485 14
8 Oklahoma State 125.3 122.3 8 122.3 7 126.2 18 115.9 18 131.2 7 138.0 8 +0.540 13
9 Nevada 126.4 122.2 9 120.0 10 127.8 16 123.5 7 124.5 12 137.3 10 +1.014 6
10 Wisconsin 126.0 121.4 10 119.7 11 128.0 15 126.0 4 126.9 9 133.6 14 +1.010 7
11 Oregon 117.3 116.8 14 115.5 19 119.3 27 116.0 17 118.4 22 137.8 9 +1.144 5
12 Ohio State 127.8 119.2 13 114.5 23 132.9 6 122.8 9 119.0 21 135.3 12 +0.801 10
13 TCU 127.4 119.4 12 113.6 24 129.2 12 118.2 15 121.0 17 133.8 13 +1.421 2
14 Hawaii 122.1 123.1 7 121.2 8 117.2 29 118.3 14 116.2 28 128.0 19 +0.577 11
15 South Carolina 121.3 115.4 16 112.8 26 132.2 7 112.1 29 126.9 10 135.5 11 +0.066 29
16 Florida State 120.2 115.3 17 114.7 22 133.5 4 124.2 6 122.5 14 131.0 18 +0.365 17
17 Missouri 120.3 113.4 22 110.6 32 129.2 11 119.9 13 113.0 32 132.8 16 +0.390 16
18 Michigan 121.1 126.9 6 129.2 5 133.0 5 134.9 2 136.4 4 119.1 30 -0.529 68
19 Utah 117.7 109.8 29 116.8 14 101.9 58 96.9 81 124.3 13 132.9 15 +0.136 26
20 Baylor 115.3 119.8 11 121.2 9 126.3 17 122.9 8 125.0 11 116.6 33 -0.177 45
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Texas A&M 111.7 104.6 44 111.2 30 104.2 53 111.8 31 107.5 41 131.5 17 +0.285 22
22 Michigan State 116.4 112.9 23 108.7 35 128.1 14 111.1 32 118.0 24 122.9 25 +0.293 21
23 Pittsburgh 118.3 114.5 18 116.6 15 122.4 23 124.4 5 116.9 26 121.4 26 +0.009 33
24 USC 112.9 110.8 27 116.0 17 108.6 42 120.2 11 109.1 37 123.5 24 -0.417 63
25 Iowa 115.3 109.8 30 117.8 12 91.6 82 104.3 51 115.7 29 124.4 22 +0.565 12
26 Oregon State 112.8 106.5 36 110.0 33 123.4 21 111.0 34 119.6 19 126.8 20 -0.883 88
27 Notre Dame 114.1 106.2 39 113.3 25 101.6 60 108.7 40 108.2 39 125.5 21 -0.072 36
28 Miami 113.0 110.5 28 124.1 6 95.3 75 114.8 24 114.5 30 119.7 29 -0.085 38
29 Arizona 110.7 106.3 37 109.0 34 109.9 38 98.7 71 114.2 31 123.6 23 +0.096 27
30 Cincinnati 113.9 113.6 21 115.7 18 120.7 25 117.6 16 116.8 27 116.1 34 -0.315 57
31 Northern Illinois 116.7 113.8 19 107.6 40 115.4 31 115.0 23 107.5 40 115.7 35 +0.956 8
32 Georgia 115.4 112.8 24 111.8 28 117.4 28 111.0 33 118.1 23 115.0 38 -0.117 41
33 Nebraska 109.6 105.0 41 111.2 31 92.9 81 112.3 28 95.7 79 121.1 28 +0.319 19
34 San Diego State 111.9 111.9 25 101.1 60 131.8 8 95.8 86 119.7 18 113.1 44 +0.455 15
35 LSU 110.3 102.4 53 111.7 29 95.8 74 115.8 19 101.7 61 121.2 27 -0.406 62
36 Washington 108.5 109.7 31 116.1 16 116.6 30 113.0 26 119.2 20 113.7 42 -0.936 90
37 Texas Tech 107.5 103.5 50 102.1 57 112.5 33 96.1 84 109.0 38 118.3 31 -0.254 51
38 Arizona State 109.4 103.0 51 101.3 59 109.8 39 97.6 76 106.8 46 117.6 32 -0.070 35
39 Air Force 106.4 104.8 43 102.4 54 106.5 47 106.3 43 122.2 16 114.4 40 +0.256 24
40 Navy 108.0 108.5 34 102.3 56 120.1 26 109.9 36 116.9 25 110.0 50 +0.061 30
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 Tulsa 110.1 109.6 32 106.0 44 111.0 35 112.6 27 101.3 62 108.9 52 +0.014 32
42 North Carolina 106.3 104.2 47 108.1 38 99.3 65 98.7 72 109.2 36 113.5 43 -0.039 34
43 N.C. State 109.4 101.8 55 101.1 62 112.4 34 104.8 48 103.5 55 115.7 35 -0.238 50
44 Kentucky 108.2 109.3 33 112.6 27 104.8 50 110.3 35 111.0 33 107.6 55 -0.372 61
45 East Carolina 110.4 111.3 26 106.2 43 128.8 13 115.0 22 110.0 34 105.3 61 -0.971 92
46 Illinois 105.9 101.1 57 98.0 74 108.8 41 108.8 39 95.5 80 115.2 37 -0.123 42
47 Tennessee 105.0 101.0 58 107.9 39 94.9 76 96.0 85 106.1 47 114.8 39 -0.191 46
48 West Virginia 110.7 102.9 52 105.0 47 103.1 57 100.8 62 107.2 44 111.7 46 +0.262 23
49 Kansas State 107.4 104.1 48 105.0 48 107.3 45 108.3 41 107.4 42 109.7 51 -0.315 58
50 Florida 104.2 99.5 65 101.1 61 110.9 36 109.2 37 98.4 70 114.1 41 -0.260 52
51 Louisville 109.6 106.3 38 108.5 37 105.5 49 114.4 25 101.2 63 107.1 58 -0.145 43
52 Houston 107.4 107.0 35 96.8 77 124.7 20 104.6 50 105.2 50 105.6 60 +0.066 28
53 Penn State 104.1 99.5 64 104.8 49 96.0 71 101.2 59 103.9 53 112.1 45 -0.310 55
54 Central Florida 109.9 105.4 40 108.6 36 91.4 83 104.8 49 109.6 35 104.6 62 +0.206 25
55 Ole Miss 102.7 102.1 54 94.7 84 122.4 24 101.7 58 107.4 43 108.0 54 -0.776 85
56 Mississippi State 101.1 98.3 71 103.6 50 89.6 89 101.1 60 101.8 59 111.2 47 -0.085 37
57 Clemson 103.8 98.4 70 99.8 68 103.6 55 102.3 56 102.3 57 110.9 48 -0.282 53
58 SMU 103.0 104.6 45 103.5 51 104.3 52 105.5 46 102.2 58 104.6 62 +0.026 31
59 Troy 106.0 104.9 42 103.3 52 104.7 51 98.7 73 103.9 54 104.4 64 -0.219 47
60 Maryland 103.0 100.1 61 102.3 55 101.2 62 95.8 87 106.9 45 108.2 53 -0.091 39
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 Georgia Tech 104.2 104.4 46 107.1 41 99.1 66 115.1 21 82.2 103 103.1 66 -0.433 65
62 Colorado 100.2 96.7 76 93.6 86 110.7 37 93.0 91 106.0 48 110.6 49 -0.650 73
63 Fresno State 100.8 97.7 73 99.8 69 93.0 80 97.2 78 101.1 64 107.6 55 -0.718 76
64 Florida International 103.1 103.6 49 101.0 64 107.3 44 103.1 54 102.4 56 98.5 75 -0.719 77
65 BYU 100.0 92.6 85 90.2 98 99.0 67 99.3 69 88.3 94 107.3 57 -0.224 49
66 Indiana 99.8 100.1 62 95.6 82 114.9 32 86.4 104 105.9 49 99.7 74 -0.757 84
67 Minnesota 97.4 97.5 74 99.3 71 106.6 46 99.9 67 104.1 52 102.0 68 -0.960 91
68 Virginia 99.4 101.5 56 105.1 46 94.3 78 105.2 47 97.5 73 97.5 76 -0.535 69
69 Toledo 98.0 97.4 75 101.8 58 90.2 88 96.5 82 100.5 65 100.2 73 -0.647 72
70 Southern Miss 102.1 100.3 60 100.1 66 96.0 72 100.4 65 98.5 69 96.9 78 -0.331 60
71 South Florida 98.8 95.6 79 96.0 79 103.8 54 102.5 55 97.1 74 101.5 69 -0.417 64
72 Louisiana Tech 96.2 94.6 81 91.6 92 107.8 43 99.3 70 92.7 88 101.4 70 -1.004 94
73 Northwestern 97.6 99.5 66 101.0 63 97.4 70 104.0 53 98.8 68 95.5 83 -0.754 83
74 Western Michigan 102.3 98.9 68 95.9 80 95.8 73 97.0 80 93.1 87 95.9 82 -0.095 40
75 Temple 100.2 99.8 63 105.2 45 83.6 105 106.2 44 91.9 89 95.0 85 -0.174 44
76 Arkansas State 95.9 98.7 69 91.3 94 109.1 40 97.1 79 94.2 82 95.1 84 -0.520 67
77 Duke 97.8 99.2 67 98.7 72 106.4 48 93.1 90 104.8 51 94.2 88 -1.119 99
78 UCLA 95.1 92.4 86 106.3 42 74.0 113 107.8 42 79.1 109 101.0 72 -1.041 96
79 California 95.8 90.7 94 88.6 102 101.3 61 104.0 52 79.4 108 102.6 67 -0.323 59
80 Idaho 95.0 89.4 98 87.9 105 94.2 79 76.1 115 93.4 84 103.9 65 -0.290 54
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 Connecticut 97.4 95.5 80 95.8 81 103.4 56 108.9 38 87.2 97 97.4 77 -0.690 74
82 Ohio 98.6 98.0 72 96.5 78 97.8 68 96.2 83 101.8 60 94.6 86 -0.313 56
83 Iowa State 92.1 90.8 93 97.0 75 90.8 85 100.5 64 91.7 91 101.0 71 -1.114 98
84 UAB 95.8 100.5 59 98.4 73 101.7 59 101.8 57 98.0 72 91.2 92 -0.750 82
85 Utah State 92.7 84.0 110 84.6 110 89.6 90 85.5 107 88.1 95 107.0 59 -0.935 89
86 Wyoming 91.5 91.2 90 99.9 67 86.0 102 97.4 77 93.9 83 96.7 79 -1.261 104
87 Syracuse 95.7 91.6 89 93.5 87 89.1 93 105.7 45 82.0 105 96.0 80 -0.220 48
88 Texas 91.8 89.3 99 92.4 90 88.9 94 98.1 75 85.6 98 96.0 81 -0.463 66
89 Washington State 88.0 90.2 95 91.5 93 100.1 63 87.0 103 99.8 67 93.0 89 -1.321 107
90 Wake Forest 89.3 89.6 97 102.5 53 71.6 117 101.0 61 83.9 101 92.7 90 -1.278 105
91 Army 95.3 93.4 84 96.9 76 81.1 107 99.9 68 91.1 92 88.7 93 -0.999 93
92 Miami (Ohio) 92.5 96.6 78 95.4 83 94.9 77 92.9 92 93.3 86 83.9 103 -0.695 75
93 Colorado State 87.6 92.2 88 92.3 91 97.6 69 89.2 98 96.1 76 88.3 94 -1.565 113
94 Boston College 91.0 86.0 104 92.7 89 80.2 108 92.7 93 84.7 100 94.3 87 -0.720 78
95 Marshall 87.2 87.3 103 90.7 96 84.6 104 74.5 118 96.8 75 92.4 91 -0.722 79
96 North Texas 91.8 93.6 83 93.0 88 88.4 95 100.0 66 80.4 107 85.6 99 -0.744 81
97 Central Michigan 91.7 94.2 82 93.8 85 86.8 100 84.4 108 93.3 85 85.0 102 -0.602 71
98 Eastern Michigan 91.9 96.7 77 99.4 70 90.5 86 100.6 63 96.1 77 82.0 108 -1.996 119
99 San Jose State 85.6 90.8 92 100.4 65 75.5 110 85.6 106 94.8 81 86.0 97 -1.452 111
100 UTEP 90.9 91.2 91 88.9 101 89.1 92 93.3 89 84.8 99 85.1 101 -0.723 80
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 Rice 89.4 92.2 87 88.2 104 99.6 64 88.3 102 95.8 78 83.0 107 -1.343 108
102 Florida Atlantic 86.7 88.7 100 90.4 97 87.8 97 74.6 117 100.2 66 85.8 98 -1.031 95
103 Tulane 88.2 87.4 102 86.6 108 87.4 98 90.9 96 82.2 104 86.0 96 -0.872 87
104 UL-Lafayette 85.4 87.4 101 86.9 106 86.9 99 76.9 113 90.1 93 83.7 104 -1.366 109
105 Purdue 83.7 83.6 111 81.6 112 90.4 87 91.1 95 78.5 110 86.9 95 -1.180 100
106 UL-Monroe 83.6 84.8 108 81.1 113 91.0 84 74.7 116 91.7 90 85.5 100 -1.058 97
107 Middle Tennessee 88.4 89.9 96 86.7 107 85.0 103 89.2 99 80.8 106 79.7 112 -0.564 70
108 Rutgers 85.7 85.0 107 89.5 100 82.8 106 85.9 105 88.1 96 83.3 106 -1.289 106
109 UNLV 80.6 85.3 106 91.0 95 86.7 101 82.4 110 98.2 71 82.0 108 -1.970 118
110 Kent State 84.9 86.0 105 88.6 103 77.7 109 91.8 94 77.8 112 77.7 113 -0.795 86
111 Vanderbilt 80.7 81.6 112 89.5 99 72.1 116 94.3 88 71.6 116 81.6 110 -1.220 102
112 Western Kentucky 82.4 81.5 113 85.4 109 75.0 111 88.6 101 71.0 117 81.0 111 -1.421 110
113 Kansas 76.8 74.9 118 80.8 114 67.0 118 83.5 109 68.9 118 83.4 105 -1.543 112
114 Ball State 81.4 84.4 109 79.6 117 88.1 96 88.9 100 78.0 111 72.8 117 -1.200 101
115 Bowling Green 76.4 77.8 116 80.7 115 73.7 114 79.7 112 75.0 113 74.4 115 -1.583 114
116 New Mexico State 72.9 72.0 120 77.5 119 66.2 119 70.7 120 73.8 115 76.0 114 -1.949 116
117 Buffalo 74.2 75.9 117 64.9 120 89.3 91 71.4 119 74.3 114 70.5 118 -1.244 103
118 Akron 74.5 78.4 115 79.9 116 74.2 112 89.8 97 68.0 120 67.8 119 -1.847 115
119 Memphis 72.8 78.8 114 83.5 111 73.5 115 76.4 114 82.6 102 67.1 120 -1.956 117
120 New Mexico 71.0 72.1 119 79.3 118 62.0 120 79.8 111 68.1 119 73.7 116 -2.080 120