Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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2011 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/9/12

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+		 Play
Eff.		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Drive
Eff.		 Rk DNP
 Rk
1 Wisconsin 151.6 141.4 1 134.5 2 179.0 1 134.9 3 162.6 1 161.7 1 +1.395 3
2 Oklahoma State 139.4 131.9 2 133.0 3 141.3 6 147.5 1 126.3 11 147.0 5 +0.680 11
3 Alabama 139.1 130.0 4 146.2 1 117.7 23 132.9 5 142.4 2 148.2 3 +1.395 2
4 Houston 138.6 130.2 3 128.6 5 132.0 8 116.7 19 134.6 5 147.1 4 +1.510 1
5 Baylor 137.1 129.1 5 126.3 6 145.0 3 126.2 7 140.1 4 145.0 7 +0.350 22
6 LSU 136.3 121.6 9 120.5 11 149.4 2 125.9 8 140.5 3 150.9 2 +0.894 6
7 Oregon 134.2 127.1 6 132.3 4 119.2 21 138.0 2 122.1 16 141.3 8 +0.976 5
8 Stanford 133.2 121.0 10 123.0 7 117.0 28 117.3 18 126.5 10 145.5 6 +1.168 4
9 Boise State 129.3 119.3 11 115.2 17 127.3 13 105.2 48 126.7 9 139.4 9 +0.797 9
10 Arkansas 128.5 122.3 7 120.7 10 144.5 4 119.3 13 130.1 7 134.6 11 +0.553 14
11 Michigan 128.4 121.8 8 120.0 12 141.4 5 134.3 4 123.8 13 135.0 10 +0.826 8
12 USC 123.6 116.7 15 122.1 8 113.1 32 113.8 23 123.5 14 130.4 13 +0.710 10
13 TCU 122.4 117.0 14 111.9 26 128.8 10 118.1 17 118.4 22 127.9 14 +0.842 7
14 West Virginia 122.3 117.3 12 112.1 25 138.2 7 113.2 26 120.2 19 127.3 15 +0.218 26
15 Georgia Tech 121.4 117.3 13 110.7 34 130.4 9 122.3 10 126.2 12 125.5 16 +0.464 17
16 Texas A&M 120.4 110.3 23 107.7 41 123.1 16 120.2 11 105.3 51 130.5 12 +0.406 19
17 Toledo 118.4 113.1 17 114.7 19 110.2 41 113.6 25 114.3 28 123.6 19 -0.012 36
18 Northern Illinois 118.2 111.1 22 111.8 28 96.9 75 113.0 28 105.9 47 125.3 17 +0.124 32
19 Western Michigan 116.9 113.0 18 111.3 31 112.3 35 98.8 73 110.8 35 120.8 21 -0.187 53
20 Notre Dame 116.8 113.7 16 118.1 14 114.8 30 126.3 6 110.0 39 119.9 23 +0.267 25
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+		 Play
Eff.		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Drive
Eff.		 Rk DNP
 Rk
21 Tulsa 116.2 108.8 31 112.2 24 111.4 36 109.8 35 114.5 27 123.6 20 -0.132 48
22 Oklahoma 115.7 112.7 20 112.9 21 125.1 15 113.2 27 114.9 26 118.6 24 +0.403 20
23 Miami 115.0 112.8 19 114.2 20 117.1 27 110.4 31 119.6 21 117.2 27 +0.491 16
24 Clemson 115.0 112.7 21 112.9 22 120.9 17 109.3 37 121.8 17 117.3 26 -0.287 61
25 Georgia 114.7 109.4 27 118.4 13 108.8 43 97.7 76 133.2 6 120.1 22 +0.070 33
26 Navy 114.7 105.3 49 117.0 16 84.7 104 115.2 21 95.8 76 124.0 18 -0.321 65
27 Texas Tech 112.0 105.9 47 104.3 51 119.7 19 102.4 61 108.2 42 118.0 25 -0.464 75
28 Northwestern 111.8 108.4 33 111.1 33 112.5 34 107.7 40 115.4 24 115.2 33 -0.107 44
29 Cincinnati 111.7 107.0 40 99.9 63 119.4 20 118.1 16 98.0 71 116.4 30 +0.049 35
30 Air Force 111.6 106.2 44 111.5 30 84.8 102 109.1 38 111.4 34 117.0 28 +0.416 18
31 South Carolina 111.2 107.2 38 107.4 42 110.2 39 112.9 29 104.6 54 115.2 32 +0.496 15
32 Temple 111.2 106.0 46 106.3 46 97.9 71 107.3 43 106.6 45 116.4 29 +0.680 12
33 Florida 110.9 107.3 37 121.7 9 102.4 60 109.9 34 122.2 15 114.6 34 -0.261 59
34 Southern Miss 110.8 107.8 34 99.7 65 120.1 18 105.0 49 105.4 50 113.8 35 +0.213 27
35 Washington 110.0 107.6 35 108.6 38 112.8 33 106.0 46 112.9 31 112.3 36 -0.663 84
36 Utah State 109.9 109.4 26 103.2 53 117.2 26 115.2 20 99.2 67 110.3 38 +0.571 13
37 Nebraska 109.5 102.7 56 106.3 45 99.7 65 103.5 56 109.3 41 116.3 31 -0.243 58
38 Arizona 109.4 107.0 41 105.8 49 115.0 29 88.8 101 115.2 25 111.8 37 -0.485 76
39 South Florida 108.9 109.1 29 115.1 18 92.6 92 123.2 9 100.3 64 108.6 42 -0.109 46
40 Auburn 108.5 107.0 39 108.8 37 125.6 14 118.9 14 109.9 40 110.0 39 -0.890 90
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+		 Play
Eff.		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Drive
Eff.		 Rk DNP
 Rk
41 Nevada 108.4 109.4 25 112.5 23 101.9 61 110.2 32 112.9 30 107.5 47 +0.325 23
42 Missouri 108.1 108.6 32 117.7 15 93.5 90 120.2 12 105.5 49 107.7 45 +0.197 30
43 Michigan State 108.0 106.6 43 105.9 47 107.9 46 94.7 87 113.8 29 109.4 40 +0.315 24
44 Arizona State 107.7 108.9 30 110.6 35 118.8 22 109.4 36 111.8 33 106.5 50 -0.398 67
45 Virginia Tech 107.5 106.2 45 106.8 44 103.7 56 102.1 62 112.4 32 108.8 41 +0.062 34
46 Iowa 106.9 105.1 50 108.2 39 107.4 48 107.3 44 107.7 43 108.6 44 -0.017 37
47 Tennessee 106.3 107.3 36 109.4 36 128.7 11 95.8 85 129.5 8 105.4 52 -0.571 80
48 Florida State 105.5 104.4 53 103.3 52 107.7 47 99.3 71 105.6 48 106.7 49 +0.377 21
49 SMU 105.2 109.5 24 105.0 50 117.6 24 108.9 39 106.2 46 100.9 61 -0.147 50
50 Vanderbilt 104.9 101.3 58 95.4 83 128.3 12 118.3 15 95.3 78 108.6 43 -0.209 56
51 Central Florida 104.8 104.8 52 108.0 40 97.2 74 102.1 63 110.3 37 104.7 53 +0.207 28
52 Arkansas State 104.5 103.5 54 105.8 48 95.5 82 101.0 66 102.1 58 105.5 51 +0.176 31
53 BYU 104.3 101.0 60 99.8 64 108.5 44 104.7 52 101.0 61 107.7 46 +0.197 29
54 North Carolina 103.6 109.3 28 107.1 43 117.3 25 97.5 77 119.9 20 98.0 67 -0.109 45
55 Fresno State 103.6 104.8 51 111.2 32 98.5 69 94.3 90 116.1 23 102.3 58 -0.696 85
56 Ohio 103.5 105.8 48 100.7 61 110.2 40 99.7 69 106.9 44 101.3 59 -0.098 43
57 UCLA 103.5 106.6 42 111.9 27 110.8 38 110.0 33 120.2 18 100.3 62 -0.833 89
58 California 103.0 99.1 64 99.5 66 101.2 62 98.7 74 102.8 57 106.9 48 -0.050 39
59 Bowling Green 100.8 103.0 55 101.4 59 103.4 58 93.5 93 104.1 55 98.7 65 -0.626 82
60 Wake Forest 100.8 97.6 70 97.2 79 106.9 49 94.7 88 101.9 59 104.0 54 -0.502 77
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+		 Play
Eff.		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Drive
Eff.		 Rk DNP
 Rk
61 UL-Lafayette 100.8 101.3 59 103.0 54 96.0 78 86.4 107 110.3 36 100.2 63 -0.409 69
62 East Carolina 99.7 96.8 73 92.6 90 108.0 45 87.2 105 103.2 56 102.7 56 -0.443 73
63 Mississippi State 99.7 102.3 57 111.6 29 95.6 81 107.5 42 110.1 38 97.0 69 -0.033 38
64 Ball State 99.3 97.7 69 96.6 80 100.1 64 97.0 82 95.4 77 100.9 60 -0.936 94
65 Ohio State 99.1 94.3 82 98.4 72 95.2 83 113.6 24 75.6 114 103.8 55 -0.182 52
66 UTEP 98.5 100.3 61 97.5 77 105.6 52 103.2 57 96.5 74 96.8 70 -0.557 79
67 UAB 97.9 100.1 62 98.0 74 109.0 42 102.7 59 99.3 65 95.8 75 -1.229 109
68 Hawaii 97.9 99.4 63 102.5 56 86.6 100 104.3 54 90.5 86 96.3 71 -0.070 41
69 Kansas State 97.7 92.8 91 98.1 73 91.8 95 104.4 53 89.1 90 102.5 57 -0.460 74
70 Duke 97.3 98.9 65 99.4 68 106.6 50 91.5 97 104.8 53 95.7 76 -1.246 110
71 San Diego State 96.7 95.9 75 95.4 82 89.1 97 97.2 79 88.2 94 97.6 68 -0.140 49
72 Washington State 96.4 94.3 81 101.7 57 82.6 108 75.8 119 105.0 52 98.5 66 -0.203 54
73 Army 96.3 97.2 72 99.5 67 88.7 98 107.0 45 79.2 110 95.3 77 -0.095 42
74 Purdue 96.1 92.6 93 92.6 89 94.7 86 94.5 89 91.4 84 99.5 64 -0.405 68
75 Pittsburgh 95.9 95.9 74 101.6 58 96.4 77 114.2 22 89.4 89 95.9 74 -0.540 78
76 Louisville 95.8 97.9 67 97.5 76 104.2 54 101.6 64 101.3 60 93.6 78 -0.436 71
77 Syracuse 95.6 95.1 79 97.3 78 95.9 80 102.6 60 93.7 81 96.1 72 -0.588 81
78 Maryland 95.4 97.3 71 99.3 69 103.6 57 112.3 30 88.5 93 93.5 79 -1.095 104
79 Minnesota 93.6 94.3 83 97.6 75 98.1 70 99.5 70 99.0 68 92.9 82 -1.131 105
80 Virginia 93.5 97.8 68 99.3 70 96.4 76 98.2 75 98.2 70 89.1 88 -0.063 40
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+		 Play
Eff.		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Drive
Eff.		 Rk DNP
 Rk
81 Central Michigan 93.3 98.1 66 101.1 60 91.6 96 87.5 104 99.2 66 88.4 90 -0.892 92
82 UL-Monroe 93.1 93.0 89 90.8 97 97.5 73 104.9 50 84.5 102 93.2 81 -0.172 51
83 Louisiana Tech 93.0 93.2 87 92.6 91 93.4 91 97.0 81 88.7 92 92.8 83 -0.294 62
84 Texas 93.0 92.5 94 100.7 62 83.9 105 104.2 55 88.0 96 93.4 80 -0.207 55
85 Indiana 92.8 89.6 101 96.0 81 87.6 99 102.9 58 82.7 107 96.0 73 -1.324 113
86 Buffalo 92.0 93.4 85 90.0 100 99.2 68 101.2 65 85.1 99 90.6 85 -0.912 93
87 New Mexico State 92.0 95.8 76 94.7 84 99.3 67 88.0 103 100.7 63 88.1 92 -1.000 97
88 Miami (Ohio) 91.7 94.7 80 90.8 96 106.1 51 81.5 115 97.9 72 88.6 89 -0.303 63
89 Florida International 91.6 95.4 78 98.4 71 82.3 110 97.4 78 91.4 85 87.8 94 -0.227 57
90 Colorado 91.4 92.8 92 91.3 94 103.1 59 93.1 95 96.1 75 89.9 86 -1.259 111
91 Penn State 90.1 95.5 77 93.4 87 113.2 31 105.5 47 93.5 82 84.7 103 -0.441 72
92 N.C. State 90.0 88.6 104 83.5 115 100.9 63 81.7 113 92.2 83 91.4 84 -0.352 66
93 Wyoming 90.0 93.1 88 92.1 92 95.9 79 96.5 83 88.0 97 86.8 98 -0.309 64
94 Kansas 89.9 90.5 99 89.4 102 104.0 55 97.1 80 95.0 79 89.3 87 -1.755 117
95 Marshall 89.8 91.3 97 93.0 88 92.6 93 83.7 109 100.9 62 88.3 91 -0.997 96
96 San Jose State 89.5 92.1 95 90.3 99 97.6 72 78.8 117 98.6 69 86.9 97 -1.065 100
97 Western Kentucky 89.4 92.9 90 94.4 85 94.0 89 100.1 68 90.1 87 86.0 99 -0.814 88
98 Oregon State 89.0 93.3 86 93.8 86 99.5 66 93.6 92 94.4 80 84.8 102 -1.091 102
99 North Texas 88.6 94.0 84 102.5 55 84.7 103 98.9 72 97.2 73 83.2 104 -1.028 98
100 Ole Miss 88.6 89.8 100 91.9 93 111.0 37 107.6 41 88.9 91 87.3 96 -1.298 112
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+		 Play
Eff.		 Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
 Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+		 Rk Rushing
S&P+		 Rk Passing
S&P+		 Rk Drive
Eff.		 Rk DNP
 Rk
101 Iowa State 87.1 89.2 102 86.8 109 104.8 53 104.7 51 84.1 103 85.1 101 -0.768 86
102 Connecticut 86.7 85.4 109 87.9 105 84.9 101 90.4 98 83.8 105 88.0 93 -0.629 83
103 Rice 86.4 85.4 108 89.8 101 81.4 111 95.7 86 80.4 109 87.4 95 -1.207 108
104 Illinois 85.9 88.8 103 85.5 112 95.0 84 89.0 100 88.2 95 83.0 105 -0.119 47
105 Rutgers 85.4 85.6 107 80.0 116 94.9 85 83.5 111 84.8 100 85.2 100 -0.286 60
106 Boston College 84.9 87.3 106 86.5 110 94.5 87 90.4 99 86.1 98 82.6 106 -0.891 91
107 Troy 84.6 91.5 96 88.2 104 92.4 94 83.5 110 89.9 88 77.7 110 -1.191 107
108 Eastern Michigan 83.6 88.1 105 87.3 107 82.8 107 92.7 96 83.9 104 79.1 109 -0.770 87
109 Middle Tennessee 82.4 90.7 98 88.6 103 94.2 88 96.1 84 84.7 101 74.0 112 -1.191 106
110 Utah 81.8 84.3 111 91.3 95 72.5 114 86.9 106 83.6 106 79.4 108 -0.414 70
111 Kentucky 80.7 80.9 113 87.3 108 82.6 109 100.3 67 72.4 115 80.5 107 -0.987 95
112 Colorado State 79.1 83.2 112 90.7 98 65.0 119 93.3 94 70.7 117 74.9 111 -1.067 101
113 Tulane 77.7 84.5 110 86.1 111 73.3 113 81.0 116 81.2 108 70.9 115 -1.560 115
114 UNLV 75.1 76.6 117 84.7 113 58.4 120 88.6 102 62.2 120 73.5 113 -1.869 119
115 Idaho 75.0 78.9 115 79.7 117 83.9 106 81.5 114 78.4 113 71.0 114 -1.031 99
116 Kent State 71.9 75.3 119 76.7 119 79.1 112 82.8 112 71.8 116 68.6 116 -1.094 103
117 Akron 71.8 80.1 114 87.5 106 71.4 115 93.8 91 70.0 118 63.4 117 -1.762 118
118 New Mexico 68.6 78.4 116 84.6 114 67.2 118 76.9 118 78.4 112 58.8 120 -2.262 120
119 Memphis 68.1 75.5 118 79.7 118 67.4 117 69.6 120 79.1 111 60.7 118 -1.503 114
120 Florida Atlantic 66.2 72.5 120 75.2 120 69.9 116 85.7 108 62.7 119 59.9 119 -1.641 116