Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2012 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, OFFENSE

through games of 1/7/13

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

DNP stands for Difference in Net Points. This is a raw average of the points an offense scores on a given drive compared to the points it would be expected to score based on starting field position.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
1 Texas A&M 138.1 128.4 4 123.1 10 159.9 1 155.6 1 120.8 19 160.1 1 +1.339 2
2 Oregon 129.2 133.7 1 137.3 2 131.1 9 141.2 2 133.2 4 153.3 3 +1.100 3
3 Georgia 134.6 132.3 2 137.7 1 135.9 6 123.1 11 148.9 1 152.9 4 +0.834 8
4 Alabama 147.7 130.4 3 124.8 9 154.1 3 137.4 4 132.0 6 153.6 2 +1.454 1
5 Clemson 128.3 125.0 6 116.6 18 159.3 2 112.7 26 146.2 2 140.4 7 +0.701 11
6 Oklahoma 125.3 114.1 25 106.9 43 135.4 7 105.9 53 117.6 28 147.4 5 +0.685 12
7 Notre Dame 125.9 118.6 13 126.8 7 125.9 13 124.2 9 133.2 5 141.7 6 +0.854 7
8 Nebraska 124.2 124.2 7 129.9 4 125.1 15 139.2 3 121.9 15 135.6 9 +0.303 25
9 Michigan 124.0 115.8 18 121.2 13 121.0 20 118.5 14 127.7 11 138.5 8 +0.261 28
10 Florida State 123.9 125.6 5 128.9 5 118.9 23 132.3 5 120.4 21 128.1 22 +1.040 4
11 Baylor 122.8 120.2 11 115.5 20 145.2 5 122.0 12 126.1 12 131.7 17 -0.040 46
12 Arizona 121.6 116.4 17 107.2 42 151.4 4 118.1 16 121.1 18 135.5 11 -0.111 52
13 Georgia Tech 119.4 116.8 15 121.6 12 116.2 30 125.7 7 124.6 13 132.7 15 +0.158 34
14 Oklahoma State 118.8 115.7 19 119.4 16 104.3 59 111.2 36 119.5 23 133.2 14 +0.740 9
15 West Virginia 118.3 120.2 12 118.6 17 131.5 8 112.2 30 128.5 10 126.7 25 -0.194 57
16 Ohio State 119.5 117.0 14 125.5 8 108.0 49 125.7 6 115.6 33 129.7 20 +0.651 13
17 Ole Miss 115.3 112.7 27 113.4 27 125.7 14 111.9 32 124.3 14 133.3 13 +0.202 29
18 Oregon State 119.8 110.1 35 115.3 21 113.4 38 105.6 54 121.5 17 135.6 9 +0.380 19
19 Tennessee 118.9 123.0 8 128.8 6 124.4 16 120.0 13 131.1 7 119.8 29 -0.375 69
20 USC 116.1 121.2 10 120.8 14 130.6 10 116.4 17 128.6 9 120.7 27 -0.089 51
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
21 Arkansas 117.0 122.6 9 133.0 3 122.7 17 116.0 20 136.4 3 119.0 33 -0.601 79
22 Arkansas State 119.4 112.0 30 111.0 31 114.6 33 109.0 41 115.3 34 129.1 21 +0.707 10
23 Kansas State 116.8 110.4 34 105.6 46 128.8 12 107.3 46 120.5 20 130.6 19 +0.149 36
24 Texas 113.3 110.7 33 110.9 32 116.1 31 114.1 23 114.2 35 127.2 24 +0.050 39
25 South Carolina 114.5 103.5 47 94.5 83 130.0 11 100.1 65 111.4 38 134.1 12 +0.496 17
26 Wisconsin 115.7 106.8 41 109.4 37 117.2 28 110.2 39 117.6 27 130.6 18 +0.276 27
27 Louisiana Tech 118.4 116.6 16 120.5 15 101.2 67 112.6 27 119.3 24 119.5 31 +0.165 33
28 Florida 117.9 107.1 40 108.9 39 120.5 21 124.1 10 101.2 58 127.5 23 -0.031 45
29 Stanford 113.4 102.3 57 99.4 65 118.6 24 103.9 57 107.6 43 131.8 16 +0.155 35
30 Utah State 117.5 115.2 21 109.1 38 122.4 18 113.6 24 111.7 37 118.9 34 +0.907 5
31 San Jose State 117.6 114.7 22 113.9 25 118.4 26 93.1 88 130.1 8 119.4 32 +0.545 15
32 Fresno State 116.9 112.6 28 113.4 26 108.2 48 106.8 48 112.1 36 119.5 30 +0.377 20
33 Texas Tech 113.0 114.4 24 112.7 28 121.6 19 105.9 52 117.0 30 117.0 36 +0.165 32
34 UL-Lafayette 115.5 115.3 20 114.0 24 113.9 37 112.5 28 117.7 26 115.4 39 +0.329 23
35 Syracuse 113.1 112.0 31 115.8 19 108.3 47 112.1 31 116.7 31 117.4 35 +0.114 37
36 Louisville 115.8 112.1 29 112.3 29 118.5 25 101.0 60 121.6 16 115.7 38 +0.182 31
37 LSU 113.6 104.9 45 110.0 35 108.6 46 124.3 8 99.2 65 122.1 26 -0.009 43
38 North Carolina 113.4 114.5 23 115.0 22 110.2 41 108.7 42 117.1 29 112.0 47 +0.326 24
39 Central Florida 112.6 108.6 37 107.8 40 114.3 35 116.2 19 104.6 48 116.1 37 +0.463 18
40 Boise State 117.2 111.3 32 114.9 23 107.7 51 106.2 51 119.6 22 113.0 45 +0.357 21
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
41 Miami 110.4 113.0 26 122.1 11 105.4 55 112.3 29 118.3 25 110.7 51 -0.419 71
42 UCLA 109.7 109.7 36 110.8 33 114.2 36 110.1 40 116.2 32 111.4 49 -0.234 62
43 Northern Illinois 112.3 106.8 42 101.6 55 107.0 52 107.5 45 100.8 61 114.2 42 +0.860 6
44 BYU 113.1 100.9 62 101.9 54 109.4 44 102.2 59 104.5 49 120.0 28 +0.498 16
45 San Diego State 109.9 106.6 43 109.9 36 101.7 65 113.3 25 101.5 56 112.5 46 +0.187 30
46 Arizona State 110.0 105.4 44 100.8 58 114.4 34 101.0 61 109.9 39 113.4 44 +0.065 38
47 Northwestern 109.7 103.2 51 107.8 41 103.3 60 111.2 35 101.8 55 114.9 40 -0.023 44
48 Penn State 108.9 101.4 60 100.2 61 105.3 56 97.9 71 103.2 53 114.8 41 +0.346 22
49 Cincinnati 110.6 108.3 38 106.0 44 106.5 53 107.8 44 104.1 51 107.1 56 +0.551 14
50 Pittsburgh 104.7 102.5 56 100.0 62 116.7 29 99.9 66 108.9 41 111.8 48 -0.130 53
51 Mississippi State 104.3 103.4 48 99.7 64 119.6 22 107.3 47 103.9 52 108.2 53 +0.001 42
52 Nevada 107.1 107.5 39 105.7 45 109.5 43 110.3 38 106.2 46 103.8 61 +0.004 41
53 Duke 105.2 102.5 55 102.1 53 115.6 32 100.8 62 108.2 42 107.8 55 -0.551 78
54 Indiana 104.4 103.0 52 103.2 51 108.9 45 93.4 86 109.4 40 105.1 60 -0.503 74
55 Tulsa 102.9 98.4 70 97.0 74 100.8 69 103.8 58 93.0 84 109.0 52 +0.295 26
56 Marshall 107.2 102.1 58 95.1 82 109.5 42 93.9 85 101.5 57 105.3 59 -0.222 60
57 Toledo 103.6 103.3 49 102.2 52 102.1 62 105.2 55 99.5 64 103.1 64 -0.158 55
58 California 100.7 102.5 54 111.4 30 95.1 82 114.5 22 101.0 59 103.7 62 -0.993 107
59 Michigan State 104.1 91.7 90 91.7 95 104.6 58 98.4 69 92.3 85 113.8 43 -0.068 49
60 Ball State 104.7 101.2 61 101.6 57 86.1 101 96.9 74 98.8 68 102.4 67 -0.357 66
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
61 Vanderbilt 101.3 95.1 80 93.7 89 100.6 70 91.9 93 100.9 60 108.1 54 +0.034 40
62 N.C. State 101.1 100.1 63 103.4 49 99.4 72 89.4 100 107.5 44 102.6 66 -0.227 61
63 Troy 102.1 103.7 46 98.4 71 107.9 50 99.6 67 100.0 62 97.9 72 -0.045 47
64 TCU 99.9 93.7 83 96.1 78 96.2 81 91.9 94 102.9 54 106.9 57 -0.246 63
65 Iowa State 96.0 89.2 102 89.7 102 97.1 76 95.6 78 89.9 94 110.8 50 -0.376 70
66 South Florida 98.5 98.3 71 98.5 70 105.7 54 106.5 50 96.3 75 101.3 69 -0.626 84
67 Washington 99.2 98.1 72 103.6 48 100.5 71 111.7 33 95.6 80 101.4 68 -0.839 94
68 Virginia Tech 96.5 91.5 93 93.6 90 90.3 91 90.5 96 94.6 83 106.5 58 -0.181 56
69 Kent State 100.8 98.4 69 101.6 56 84.2 106 110.7 37 80.8 113 99.0 70 -0.365 67
70 Missouri 97.0 92.5 87 92.2 93 110.9 40 100.2 64 97.2 74 103.1 63 -1.065 112
71 Temple 98.1 97.6 75 100.0 63 98.2 75 114.9 21 84.9 108 97.3 75 -0.941 100
72 Purdue 96.8 96.1 78 95.6 81 102.1 63 95.4 79 98.5 69 98.6 71 -0.612 80
73 Auburn 92.4 91.3 96 100.8 59 86.5 99 116.2 18 76.6 120 102.8 65 -0.923 99
74 Houston 97.4 96.8 76 91.5 96 101.1 68 94.7 82 90.6 93 97.1 76 -0.294 65
75 Navy 97.5 101.6 59 103.4 50 91.7 90 106.6 49 96.0 76 91.7 89 -0.437 73
76 Western Michigan 96.7 99.7 64 96.3 77 101.7 64 96.4 76 96.0 77 93.2 84 -0.202 58
77 East Carolina 98.4 97.7 74 96.6 75 94.0 85 88.1 103 98.2 70 95.1 81 -0.367 68
78 Western Kentucky 97.4 99.4 66 100.5 60 90.1 92 97.4 73 98.9 67 92.7 86 -0.283 64
79 UL-Monroe 97.0 93.3 84 88.5 107 97.1 77 91.4 95 87.8 101 97.9 72 -0.080 50
80 Army 98.3 103.3 50 110.3 34 82.1 111 118.4 15 79.1 116 87.4 102 -1.043 111
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
81 Middle Tennessee 97.2 102.8 53 105.5 47 93.3 87 97.9 72 107.3 45 87.4 102 -0.877 96
82 Virginia 93.7 92.9 85 89.4 104 103.1 61 90.3 98 95.4 81 96.3 78 -0.649 85
83 Minnesota 93.0 92.1 88 94.1 87 96.5 79 94.6 83 97.8 71 96.1 79 -0.684 89
84 Kentucky 91.6 91.3 94 99.1 67 88.8 94 111.6 34 83.1 111 96.3 77 -1.304 117
85 Miami (Ohio) 96.3 96.4 77 86.2 113 118.0 27 84.2 109 99.5 63 91.2 91 -0.990 106
86 UAB 94.4 98.6 68 99.0 68 96.6 78 95.1 80 99.0 66 88.9 96 -0.954 102
87 Wyoming 94.4 94.5 82 83.9 117 112.8 39 81.3 117 104.3 50 93.0 85 -0.966 103
88 Ohio 98.3 94.8 81 94.4 85 86.1 102 87.4 104 97.4 73 92.6 87 -0.054 48
89 Air Force 95.3 98.9 67 97.8 73 86.3 100 98.1 70 105.9 47 87.9 101 -0.428 72
90 Boston College 90.4 91.6 91 94.4 84 95.0 83 87.3 105 95.8 78 94.8 82 -0.912 97
91 Central Michigan 96.3 99.5 65 96.5 76 96.2 80 96.8 75 95.1 82 86.7 108 -0.507 75
92 Iowa 90.8 88.5 105 92.9 92 88.6 95 94.8 81 88.4 98 97.5 74 -0.681 88
93 Utah 92.7 89.1 103 87.2 111 101.7 66 88.2 102 95.8 79 95.7 80 -0.663 86
94 New Mexico 95.1 95.8 79 98.6 69 81.9 112 100.4 63 74.7 121 88.3 99 -0.749 92
95 Texas State 94.2 97.7 73 99.3 66 86.9 98 108.3 43 83.3 110 86.3 109 -0.966 103
96 SMU 92.1 89.8 100 89.4 103 98.3 74 99.5 68 85.4 106 94.2 83 -0.613 81
97 Rice 95.8 92.5 86 89.8 101 94.4 84 96.0 77 88.3 99 91.2 90 -0.520 76
98 Bowling Green 93.9 91.1 97 93.9 88 85.6 104 94.2 84 86.7 104 91.1 93 -0.222 59
99 UTEP 89.1 91.6 92 98.2 72 84.4 105 90.1 99 97.7 72 90.4 95 -0.847 95
100 Washington State 88.0 87.4 108 86.2 114 104.7 57 83.2 111 89.6 95 92.4 88 -0.974 105
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
101 UNLV 89.8 91.3 95 92.0 94 88.5 97 92.3 92 87.7 102 88.2 100 -0.676 87
102 Buffalo 88.8 88.3 106 91.4 97 81.4 114 92.9 89 84.3 109 91.0 94 -0.522 77
103 Florida International 89.2 91.8 89 88.1 108 92.9 89 88.5 101 90.9 91 86.8 107 -0.747 91
104 Rutgers 93.1 86.7 112 87.5 109 84.0 108 78.8 118 91.3 89 91.2 91 -0.136 54
105 Tulane 87.7 88.3 107 90.5 100 88.6 96 71.7 124 92.1 87 88.5 98 -1.161 113
106 UTSA 91.3 90.8 98 82.8 118 99.3 73 84.0 110 91.3 88 85.7 110 -0.621 82
107 Kansas 84.8 88.7 104 95.9 79 82.5 109 104.6 56 76.6 119 86.9 105 -1.480 119
108 Akron 87.3 90.5 99 90.8 99 82.2 110 85.4 107 87.1 103 83.5 114 -0.700 90
109 Illinois 83.9 87.0 110 94.3 86 75.0 120 92.6 91 85.9 105 86.9 105 -1.276 115
110 Eastern Michigan 87.0 89.5 101 90.9 98 89.1 93 93.3 87 88.6 97 83.5 115 -1.288 116
111 North Texas 85.9 87.2 109 84.7 115 93.9 86 86.5 106 89.1 96 85.0 111 -0.762 93
112 Connecticut 87.6 83.2 117 78.6 121 93.1 88 71.8 123 90.7 92 88.8 97 -0.623 83
113 Wake Forest 84.2 83.9 116 89.4 105 79.1 116 84.8 108 85.2 107 87.0 104 -1.173 114
114 Colorado State 84.2 87.0 111 95.7 80 72.5 122 82.4 115 92.2 86 82.1 116 -1.002 108
115 Florida Atlantic 83.9 86.6 113 86.5 112 85.8 103 81.9 116 88.0 100 81.3 117 -1.008 109
116 Southern Miss 83.0 85.7 115 89.4 106 84.1 107 92.8 90 80.8 112 81.3 117 -1.600 120
117 Memphis 82.1 82.9 118 82.7 119 74.5 121 83.0 112 78.2 118 81.3 119 -0.921 98
118 Colorado 78.2 79.8 120 87.3 110 77.8 118 90.3 97 79.4 115 83.8 113 -1.820 122
119 Idaho 79.3 86.3 114 93.2 91 80.1 115 82.5 114 91.1 90 72.1 121 -1.914 123
120 Maryland 77.6 73.9 123 78.3 122 70.0 123 72.9 122 78.6 117 84.0 112 -0.951 101
Rk Offense Off.
S&P+
Play
Eff.
Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Rushing
S&P+
Rk Passing
S&P+
Rk Drive
Eff.
Rk DNP
Rk
121 New Mexico State 77.0 82.0 119 84.4 116 75.0 119 83.0 113 79.4 114 75.5 120 -1.323 118
122 Hawaii 73.9 75.1 122 81.7 120 66.3 124 77.3 120 73.5 122 68.8 122 -1.717 121
123 Massachusetts 70.0 75.2 121 72.7 123 81.8 113 77.4 119 73.0 123 66.0 124 -2.014 124
124 South Alabama 72.1 73.7 124 69.8 124 77.9 117 73.0 121 70.6 124 67.2 123 -1.022 110