AMERICA'S BEST-SELLING
PRO FOOTBALL BOOK!

PFP 2008

Click here for more info.

ROTOWORLD.COM
DRAFT GUIDE 2008

Rotoworld Draft Guide 2008

The perfect complement
to PFP 2008

Help with KUBIAK and Premium

KUBIAK UPDATE
8/27: ADDS KICK AND PUNT RETURN YARDAGE!
8/26: Changes PHI WR, NYG DT, SD DT
8/25: Changes ARI QB, ATL QB/WR/TE, HOU RB, MIA RB, NYG DL
Download here.

Get notified when new Outsider Ramblings are posted:


||

Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
Play texas
holdem poker on Launchpoker.com


Baseball Prospectus Basketball Prospectus

OFFENSIVE LINES 2003

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 6/26/2005

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

  • Losses: 120% value
  • 0-4 Yards: 100% value
  • 5-10 Yards: 50% value
  • 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, and opponent, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (in 2003, 4.18). These stats are explained further here.

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

  • RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team's running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.
  • 10+ Yards: Percentage of a team's rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.  Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat.
  • Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.  This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
  • Stuffed: Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down.  Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

NFL averages for each stat given in red.

Why are these rankings different from the team offense DVOA ratings for rushing? Among other reasons, they don't include quarterbacks or fumbles, long runs are truncated, and a different set of adjustments is used, attempting to isolate line play rather than total team offense.

A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.

However, it is important to understand that these ratings only somewhat separate the offensive line from the running backs. A team with a very good running back will appear higher no matter how bad their line, and a team with a great line with appear lower if the running back is terrible.

Stats in blue represent pass blocking. Teams are ranked according to adjusted sack rate, which gives sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance. Pass blocking stats are explained further here. Our sack totals may differ slightly from official NFL totals depending on the league's retroactive statistical adjustments.

TEAM Adj. Line
Yards 
RB
Yards
Power
Success
Power
Rank
10+
Yards
10+
Rank
Stuffed Stuffed
Rank
TEAM Sack
Rank
Sacks Adj.
Sack Rate
1 MIN 4.60 4.65 86% 1 17% 11 20% 3 DET 1 14 2.6%
2 GB 4.55 5.30 78% 3 27% 3 20% 2 IND 2 20 3.6%
3 KC 4.49 4.34 67% 14 14% 22 23% 13 TB 3 23 3.8%
4 PHI 4.41 4.72 73% 5 19% 8 23% 9 KC 4 20 4.1%
5 SF 4.40 4.56 58% 26 19% 9 25% 21 GB 5 19 4.3%
6 BAL 4.39 5.11 59% 24 27% 2 23% 8 JAC 6 27 4.7%
7 IND 4.39 3.90 52% 30 10% 30 23% 12 TEN 7 25 4.9%
8 JAC 4.37 4.39 69% 11 17% 12 21% 5 SD 8 28 5.3%
9 OAK 4.36 4.27 71% 7 16% 13 19% 1 SF 9 29 5.4%
10 DEN 4.35 4.76 65% 17 25% 5 21% 4 CAR 10 26 5.4%
11 SEA 4.31 4.55 69% 10 21% 7 24% 18 DEN 11 25 5.4%
12 WAS 4.30 3.98 63% 21 11% 28 23% 11 NE 12 32 5.4%
13 CAR 4.23 4.31 64% 19 16% 14 23% 14 NYJ 13 30 5.5%
14 NYJ 4.23 4.06 65% 18 13% 24 24% 17 DAL 14 34 5.8%
15 NO 4.22 4.67 71% 6 25% 4 22% 6 NYG 15 42 6.1%
16 SD 4.21 5.04 70% 9 28% 1 24% 16 NO 16 37 6.4%
TEAM Adj. Line
Yards 
RB
Yards
Power
Success
Power
Rank
10+
Yards
10+
Rank
Stuffed Stuffed
Rank
TEAM Sack
Rank
Sacks Adj.
Sack Rate
17 TB 4.20 4.05 59% 25 13% 23 22% 7 MIA 17 32 6.5%
18 ATL 4.16 4.48 78% 2 22% 6 24% 19 CIN 18 38 6.6%
19 CLE 4.11 4.07 45% 32 15% 17 26% 24 ARI 19 42 6.9%
20 CIN 4.08 4.07 58% 28 18% 10 24% 15 STL 20 44 6.9%
21 BUF 4.07 3.95 67% 15 12% 26 24% 20 CLE 21 40 7.0%
22 CHI 4.01 3.98 68% 12 16% 16 28% 26 WAS 22 43 7.0%
23 NE 4.01 3.62 60% 23 10% 31 23% 10 PIT 23 43 7.1%
24 NYG 3.99 4.08 58% 27 14% 21 26% 22 ATL 24 36 7.2%
25 DAL 3.83 3.83 63% 20 14% 20 27% 25 HOU 25 35 7.3%
26 PIT 3.82 3.30 62% 22 5% 32 28% 27 CHI 26 41 7.5%
27 STL 3.80 3.73 68% 13 15% 18 30% 29 OAK 27 42 7.6%
28 MIA 3.76 3.61 71% 8 13% 25 26% 23 SEA 28 43 7.7%
29 HOU 3.68 3.73 66% 16 16% 15 30% 30 PHI 29 42 7.7%
30 TEN 3.64 3.38 46% 31 11% 29 32% 32 MIN 30 43 8.1%
31 DET 3.53 3.45 75% 4 14% 19 29% 28 BAL 31 41 8.6%
32 ARI 3.52 3.43 53% 29 11% 27 30% 31 BUF 32 51 8.8%
  NFL   4.18 65%   17%   24%   NFL   34.0 6.1%

This second table lists each team's Adjusted Line Yards in each direction listed in official NFL play-by-play, along with rank among the 32 teams. Only five directions are listed because research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard:

    LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
  TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
1 MIN 5.03 2 4.30 14 4.82 2 4.00 21 4.06 16
2 GB 4.20 13 4.88 7 4.69 3 4.90 3 4.44 8
3 KC 5.01 3 5.02 4 4.36 10 4.67 7 4.11 13
4 PHI 3.95 16 4.55 11 4.96 1 3.67 26 4.44 7
5 SF 4.91 4 5.14 3 4.25 14 4.48 9 4.39 9
6 BAL 3.90 19 4.53 13 4.67 4 4.34 14 3.18 21
7 IND 4.80 7 4.91 6 4.12 18 4.29 16 4.50 6
8 JAC 3.38 30 4.11 18 4.46 6 4.34 13 4.97 2
9 OAK 3.75 23 5.32 1 4.57 5 4.25 17 2.81 27
10 DEN 4.37 12 4.01 21 4.32 13 4.32 15 5.29 1
11 SEA 4.81 6 4.92 5 4.36 9 4.46 10 2.74 28
12 WAS 5.54 1 4.26 15 4.11 19 2.35 32 4.38 10
13 CAR 4.14 14 3.80 26 4.34 11 3.45 29 4.78 3
14 NYJ 4.59 9 4.57 10 3.83 25 4.69 4 4.68 5
15 NO 3.76 21 3.92 23 4.42 7 3.72 24 4.37 11
16 SD 4.38 11 3.89 24 4.40 8 3.65 27 3.13 24
    LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
  TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
17 TB 3.92 17 5.27 2 4.33 12 3.52 28 3.70 19
18 ATL 3.60 26 4.06 20 4.22 15 4.69 5 4.03 17
19 CLE 3.45 27 4.66 9 4.06 21 4.36 11 4.16 12
20 CIN 3.72 24 4.10 19 4.15 17 4.19 19 4.08 14
21 BUF 3.91 18 3.97 22 4.08 20 4.67 6 3.13 23
22 CHI 4.14 15 4.19 16 3.95 22 4.35 12 3.49 20
23 NE 3.76 22 3.76 28 4.18 16 4.64 8 3.06 26
24 NYG 4.40 10 3.64 31 3.59 32 5.19 2 4.07 15
25 DAL 3.63 25 4.69 8 3.82 26 3.93 22 2.06 31
26 PIT 4.71 8 3.79 27 3.68 29 4.24 18 2.59 30
27 STL 3.41 29 4.18 17 3.94 23 5.34 1 2.60 29
28 MIA 2.73 32 3.25 32 3.87 24 3.69 25 4.73 4
29 HOU 3.89 20 3.70 29 3.60 31 4.04 20 3.80 18
30 TEN 3.44 28 3.82 25 3.61 30 3.86 23 3.15 22
31 DET 3.30 31 4.53 12 3.82 27 3.09 30 0.92 32
32 ARI 4.87 5 3.67 30 3.69 28 2.64 31 3.08 25
  NFL 4.20   4.24   4.16   4.17   3.84