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KUBIAK UPDATE
7/22: Adds 2007 red zone target and carry data, solves error in IDP formula for top three linebackers
7/21: Changes DAL RB
Adjusts for Taylor and Shockey trades
7/19: JAC WR, CLE WR
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Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Baseball Prospectus Basketball Prospectus

OFFENSIVE LINES 2006

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 1/2/2007

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

  • Losses: 120% value
  • 0-4 Yards: 100% value
  • 5-10 Yards: 50% value
  • 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, and opponent, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (in 2005, 4.08). These stats are explained further here.

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

  • RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team's running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.
  • 10+ Yards: Percentage of a team's rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.  Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat.
  • Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.  This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
  • Stuffed: Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down.  Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

NFL averages for each stat given in red.

Why are these rankings different from the team offense DVOA ratings for rushing?  Among other reasons, they don't include quarterbacks or fumbles, long runs are truncated, and a different set of adjustments is used, attempting to isolate line play rather than total team offense.

A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.

However, it is important to understand that these ratings only somewhat separate the offensive line from the running backs.  A team with a very good running back will appear higher no matter how bad their line, and a team with a great line with appear lower if the running back is terrible.

Stats in blue represent pass blocking.  Teams are ranked according to adjusted sack rate, which gives sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance.  Pass blocking stats are explained further here. Our sack totals may differ slightly from official NFL totals depending on the league's retroactive statistical adjustments.

RUN BLOCKING PASS PROTECTION
TEAM Adj. Line
Yards 		 RB
Yards		 Power
Success		 Power
Rank		 10+
Yards		 10+
Rank		 Stuffed Stuffed
Rank		 TEAM Sack
Rank		 Sacks Adj.
Sack Rate
1 SD 4.82 5.38 73% 4 29% 1 19% 1 BAL 1 17 3.1%
2 JAC 4.67 5.13 65% 15 23% 5 23% 10 IND 2 15 3.1%
3 PHI 4.61 4.68 62% 21 16% 17 20% 3 GB 3 24 3.5%
4 NYG 4.61 4.99 71% 6 19% 9 25% 23 NO 4 23 3.7%
5 IND 4.56 4.13 60% 22 10% 28 22% 8 CHI 5 25 4.0%
6 STL 4.50 4.36 63% 18 16% 15 22% 9 WAS 6 19 4.1%
7 SF 4.47 4.98 55% 28 26% 2 21% 7 NYG 7 25 4.8%
8 DAL 4.47 4.21 63% 17 15% 20 25% 18 CAR 8 32 5.2%
9 CHI 4.46 4.07 71% 7 12% 27 20% 4 SD 9 28 5.3%
10 CIN 4.43 3.97 72% 5 9% 29 26% 24 TB 10 33 5.3%
11 NE 4.37 4.22 82% 1 16% 13 21% 6 CIN 11 36 5.4%
12 NO 4.37 3.99 54% 30 13% 25 24% 14 TEN 12 30 5.4%
13 ATL 4.30 4.64 59% 23 23% 4 25% 21 NE 13 29 5.4%
14 MIN 4.30 4.20 68% 12 16% 14 25% 19 PHI 14 28 5.4%
15 WAS 4.28 4.41 55% 29 16% 16 24% 13 ARI 15 36 5.6%
16 GB 4.27 4.11 63% 19 15% 19 26% 29 DEN 16 31 5.6%
RUN BLOCKING PASS PROTECTION
TEAM Adj. Line
Yards 		 RB
Yards		 Power
Success		 Power
Rank		 10+
Yards		 10+
Rank		 Stuffed Stuffed
Rank		 TEAM Sack
Rank		 Sacks Adj.
Sack Rate
17 KC 4.25 4.34 74% 2 21% 8 23% 12 NYJ 17 34 6.1%
18 DEN 4.23 4.44 63% 16 21% 7 24% 15 JAC 18 31 6.2%
19 BAL 4.22 3.78 59% 24 14% 24 26% 27 KC 19 41 6.2%
20 MIA 4.20 4.16 70% 9 19% 10 26% 28 MIA 20 41 6.5%
21 HOU 4.18 4.00 71% 8 14% 22 21% 5 STL 21 49 6.6%
22 PIT 4.16 4.38 63% 20 24% 3 25% 16 MIN 22 43 6.6%
23 ARI 4.05 3.34 56% 26 4% 32 27% 31 DAL 23 37 6.9%
24 CAR 4.02 3.98 50% 31 17% 12 25% 22 SF 24 36 7.0%
25 NYJ 3.96 3.40 56% 27 8% 30 19% 2 PIT 25 49 7.4%
26 BUF 3.95 3.74 69% 11 13% 26 25% 20 CLE 26 54 8.0%
27 TEN 3.94 4.31 67% 13 22% 6 25% 17 HOU 27 43 8.2%
28 TB 3.88 3.68 65% 14 14% 21 23% 11 SEA 28 49 8.3%
29 OAK 3.84 3.74 58% 25 15% 18 26% 30 DET 29 63 8.8%
30 SEA 3.81 3.70 70% 10 14% 23 26% 25 BUF 30 47 8.9%
31 CLE 3.71 3.29 74% 3 7% 31 26% 26 ATL 31 47 9.3%
32 DET 3.66 3.62 38% 32 18% 11 29% 32 OAK 32 72 11.6%
x NFL x 4.19 64% x 17% x 24% x NFL x 36 6.2%

The second table lists each team's Adjusted Line Yards in each direction listed in official NFL play-by-play, along with rank among the 32 teams. Only five directions are listed because research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard. It's early in the season, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

    LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
  TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
1 SD 6.07 1 5.02 4 4.38 16 4.48 6 5.56 1
2 JAC 4.59 6 5.21 3 4.72 4 3.93 26 4.43 10
3 PHI 4.57 8 4.24 19 4.72 3 4.26 14 5.33 4
4 NYG 5.27 3 3.68 29 4.45 12 4.65 4 5.46 2
5 IND 4.55 10 5.62 1 4.72 5 4.39 10 3.64 21
6 STL 2.44 31 4.34 15 4.77 2 4.11 21 5.34 3
7 SF 6.00 2 4.29 17 4.40 15 4.05 23 4.34 12
8 DAL 3.66 21 5.58 2 4.37 17 4.10 22 4.78 7
9 CHI 3.66 22 4.71 8 4.80 1 4.11 20 4.29 13
10 CIN 4.19 16 4.45 13 4.34 18 5.29 1 3.89 18
11 NE 5.05 4 4.23 20 4.55 9 3.96 24 2.34 32
12 NO 4.38 12 4.12 21 4.55 10 3.91 28 4.42 11
13 ATL 4.53 11 3.72 28 4.50 11 4.27 12 4.66 9
14 MIN 3.01 27 4.85 6 4.33 19 4.54 5 5.14 5
15 WAS 4.05 18 4.95 5 4.58 7 3.94 25 3.85 19
16 GB 4.61 5 4.83 7 4.02 26 4.30 11 3.43 26
    LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
  TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
17 KC 3.53 24 4.58 12 4.58 8 2.57 32 4.71 8
18 DEN 2.64 30 4.04 25 4.64 6 4.47 7 3.46 24
19 BAL 3.09 26 4.69 9 4.33 20 4.12 19 4.01 17
20 MIA 3.43 25 4.64 10 4.04 24 4.76 2 4.91 6
21 HOU 4.23 15 2.65 32 4.41 14 4.25 15 4.20 14
22 PIT 4.02 19 4.06 24 4.43 13 3.66 31 4.05 16
23 ARI 4.08 17 3.96 26 4.25 21 3.78 30 3.45 25
24 CAR 4.59 7 4.32 16 4.12 22 4.41 8 2.42 31
25 NYJ 2.78 29 4.64 11 3.94 27 4.72 3 3.77 20
26 BUF 4.57 9 4.36 14 3.73 30 3.92 27 3.43 27
27 TEN 3.82 20 3.37 31 4.08 23 4.24 16 3.60 23
28 TB 2.97 28 4.06 23 4.03 25 4.14 18 4.10 15
29 OAK 4.37 13 3.66 30 3.87 28 4.39 9 2.92 29
30 SEA 4.29 14 4.09 22 3.66 31 3.81 29 2.97 28
31 CLE 0.06 32 4.28 18 3.54 32 4.26 13 3.61 22
32 DET 3.58 23 3.89 27 3.82 29 4.18 17 2.90 30
x NFL 4.12 x 4.37 x 4.32 x 4.21 x 4.05 x

The third table lists how often each team runs in each direction. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to carries listed without direction.

Team RB Carries LEFT
END		 LEFT
TACKLE		 MID/
GUARD		 RIGHT
TACKLE		 RIGHT
END
1 CHI 471 13% 15% 44% 19% 9%
2 KC 471 12% 11% 55% 10% 11%
3 SD 461 12% 19% 46% 13% 9%
4 SEA 449 14% 24% 36% 16% 10%
5 NE 432 16% 15% 49% 14% 6%
6 JAC 430 6% 11% 67% 9% 7%
7 NO 427 11% 16% 51% 12% 10%
8 WAS 427 24% 13% 33% 12% 17%
9 DAL 426 11% 14% 50% 14% 11%
10 DEN 426 10% 18% 49% 18% 5%
11 NYG 426 16% 16% 36% 19% 12%
12 NYJ 426 10% 9% 63% 11% 7%
13 IND 416 17% 13% 42% 11% 18%
14 PIT 415 13% 13% 48% 15% 10%
15 ATL 405 8% 21% 38% 23% 9%
16 BAL 401 6% 12% 67% 10% 4%
Team RB Carries LEFT
END		 LEFT
TACKLE		 MID/
GUARD		 RIGHT
TACKLE		 RIGHT
END
17 GB 396 18% 19% 34% 17% 11%
18 STL 396 8% 14% 57% 12% 9%
19 CIN 393 13% 13% 52% 15% 6%
20 MIN 393 15% 17% 51% 9% 7%
21 CAR 389 8% 10% 59% 10% 12%
22 SF 382 8% 13% 57% 9% 12%
23 TEN 379 6% 12% 47% 18% 16%
24 ARI 378 15% 20% 46% 12% 8%
25 BUF 368 11% 22% 51% 9% 8%
26 HOU 365 7% 10% 62% 14% 6%
27 MIA 359 8% 10% 50% 18% 12%
28 PHI 354 12% 13% 45% 17% 12%
29 OAK 352 14% 10% 46% 16% 13%
30 TB 345 10% 14% 63% 7% 5%
31 CLE 312 3% 14% 60% 17% 5%
32 DET 264 18% 16% 27% 17% 21%
x NFL x 12% 15% 49% 14% 10%