Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 11/14/17, through Week 10.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

The Weighted DVOA ratings used in the simulation are adjusted as follows:

  • In Weeks 11-15, Dallas rating drops -8.0% due to Ezekiel Elliott suspension.
  • Arizona rating goes up 8.0% with David Johnson returning Week 14 in 20 percent of simulations; in the other 80 percent of simulations, Johnson does not return this season. Arizona rating is also adjusted (-6.4%) for Drew Stanton replacing Carson Palmer.
  • Green Bay rating is adjusted (-10.5%) for Brett Hundley replacing Aaron Rodgers. In 10 percent of simulations, Rodgers returns with Green Bay getting a 20.0% DVOA bonus from Week 15 onwards.
  • Houston rating is adjusted (-13.6%) for Tom Savage replacing Deshaun Watson. (The adjustment is larger than the one for Green Bay because the current Houston rating includes more Watson games than the Green Bay rating includes Rodgers games.)
  • Tampa Bay rating is adjusted (-13.0%) for Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Jameis Winston in Week 11. Winston returns in Week 12 in one-third of simulations, in Week 13 in one-third of simulations, and in Week 14 in one-third of simulations.

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PHI 8-1 30.3% 12.7 39.9% 27.3% 18.3% 9.6% 2.0% 1.4% 95.0% 67.2% 3.4% 98.5% 0.4%
DAL 5-4 11.4% 8.6 0.1% 0.5% 1.6% 2.7% 5.9% 9.7% 4.8% 0.6% 15.6% 20.4% -22.7%
WAS 4-5 4.9% 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.1% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 8.8% 9.0% -13.9%
NYG 1-8 -26.5% 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
MIN 7-2 24.1% 11.2 13.0% 17.6% 20.1% 24.1% 5.8% 6.4% 74.7% 30.6% 12.2% 86.9% 8.1%
DET 5-4 10.8% 9.1 0.1% 0.9% 4.3% 14.6% 6.3% 11.7% 19.9% 1.0% 18.0% 37.9% -2.7%
GB 5-4 0.0% 8.3 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 3.9% 4.5% 7.6% 5.3% 0.2% 12.0% 17.3% 7.3%
CHI 3-6 -16.8% 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.6%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NO 7-2 35.5% 12.0 21.8% 23.6% 22.0% 14.6% 9.1% 4.4% 82.0% 45.4% 13.6% 95.6% 7.0%
CAR 7-3 13.0% 10.3 0.9% 4.2% 6.1% 4.0% 28.7% 20.9% 15.3% 5.2% 49.6% 64.8% 6.8%
ATL 5-4 1.4% 8.2 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% 10.7% 2.7% 0.7% 18.7% 21.4% 6.4%
TB 3-6 -18.7% 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LARM 7-2 38.4% 11.8 22.3% 21.4% 19.3% 15.8% 9.7% 5.4% 78.8% 43.7% 15.1% 93.9% 3.7%
SEA 6-3 12.5% 9.8 1.7% 3.7% 6.2% 9.5% 16.8% 15.5% 21.1% 5.4% 32.4% 53.4% 0.5%
ARI 4-5 -24.4% 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% -0.4%
SF 1-9 -24.2% 2.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 7-2 17.7% 11.8 30.8% 24.4% 21.0% 15.1% 4.7% 2.4% 91.3% 55.2% 7.1% 98.4% 9.7%
BUF 5-4 -8.3% 8.4 0.5% 1.5% 2.7% 3.5% 18.4% 19.3% 8.2% 2.0% 37.7% 45.9% -15.0%
MIA 4-5 -35.9% 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0% 3.9% 4.3% -2.8%
NYJ 4-6 -17.4% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 3.7% -4.2%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 7-2 25.3% 12.0 44.3% 24.8% 18.7% 9.5% 1.2% 0.9% 97.3% 69.1% 2.1% 99.4% 0.5%
BAL 4-5 5.8% 8.0 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 18.3% 24.3% 2.6% 0.5% 42.5% 45.2% 3.8%
CIN 3-6 -7.6% 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% -3.8%
CLE 0-9 -30.6% 2.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
JAC 6-3 19.4% 11.0 14.7% 25.5% 22.8% 14.1% 16.8% 4.0% 77.2% 40.2% 20.8% 98.0% 2.2%
TEN 6-3 -7.8% 9.1 1.0% 3.1% 6.8% 11.2% 27.1% 18.5% 22.1% 4.2% 45.6% 67.7% 11.0%
HOU 3-6 -11.2% 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.7% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0% 5.3% 5.9% 0.3%
IND 3-7 -25.4% 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.6% 0.6%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 6-3 10.6% 10.8 8.6% 20.0% 25.8% 37.5% 1.5% 1.9% 91.9% 28.6% 3.4% 95.3% 2.0%
OAK 4-5 -7.9% 7.1 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 3.7% 3.2% 7.0% 4.5% 0.2% 10.3% 14.8% 1.0%
LACH 3-6 -3.2% 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4% 2.2% 5.5% 2.6% 0.0% 7.6% 10.2% 2.5%
DEN 3-6 -20.7% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0% 3.8% 4.8% -7.8%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
LARM 46.7%26.4%16.7%
PIT 59.5%35.4%16.3%
PHI 52.1%27.2%15.7%
NO 45.3%24.7%14.8%
NE 47.9%24.2%10.0%
JAC 41.6%20.9%8.8%
MIN 29.5%13.1%7.1%
KC 30.8%13.1%4.9%
CAR 8.5%2.9%1.4%
SEA 8.1%2.9%1.3%
DET 4.4%1.4%0.7%
BAL 5.7%2.1%0.7%
TEN 7.0%2.2%0.5%
DAL 2.1%0.7%0.3%
BUF 4.1%1.2%0.3%
ATL 1.5%0.4%0.1%
GB 1.1%0.3%0.1%
OAK 1.3%0.4%0.1%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CLE 68.1% 98.8%
SF 17.4% 93.5%
NYG 13.0% 87.4%
IND 0.6% 50.2%
TB 0.1% 28.4%
DEN 0.3% 26.3%
CIN 0.2% 20.9%
CHI 0.2% 20.6%
NYJ 0.0% 15.1%
ARI 0.0% 14.8%
HOU 0.1% 14.5%
LACH 0.1% 11.2%
MIA 0.0% 10.3%
OAK 0.0% 4.3%
BAL 0.0% 2.1%
WAS 0.0% 0.6%
BUF 0.0% 0.3%
DAL 0.0% 0.3%
DET 0.0% 0.1%
GB 0.0% 0.1%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 9.6%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LARM vs PIT 9.4%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 6.7%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LARM vs NE 6.3%
Brandin Cooks Reunion Special NO vs NE 6.0%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 4.6%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 3.5%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LARM vs KC 3.4%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 1.8%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 1.1%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.7%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.7%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 0.6%
Romney Bowl DET vs NE 0.3%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
Fifth Time's the Charm MIN vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.1%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.1%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LACH 0.1%
Battle for Los Angeles LARM vs LACH 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.1%