Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/27/16, through Week 3.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

This preseason simulation accounts for the following major injuries and suspensions:

  • Dallas rating is reduced by 5.5% in Weeks 4-6 due to the injury to Tony Romo. In 25 percent of simulations, Romo returns in Week 8. In 25 percent of simulations, Romo returns in Week 10. In 25 percent of simulations, Romo returns in Week 12. And in 25 percent of simulations, Romo does not return all season.
  • Kansas City rating is reduced by 2.0% in Weeks 4-6 due to Justin Houston starting the season on PUP.
  • New England rating is reduced by 23.0% in Week 4 due to suspension of Tom Brady and the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo.
  • Pittsburgh rating is increased slightly to account for the return of Le'Veon Bell.

 

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PHI 3-0 10.7% 10.0 17.5% 15.0% 13.6% 6.5% 8.3% 7.9% 52.7% 32.6% 16.2% 69.0% 19.9%
DAL 2-1 1.2% or 6.7% 8.8 6.0% 6.9% 8.0% 3.9% 10.2% 10.0% 24.8% 12.9% 20.3% 45.0% 5.2%
NYG 2-1 -3.3% 8.2 3.7% 4.8% 5.7% 3.2% 8.0% 9.2% 17.4% 8.5% 17.2% 34.6% -15.8%
WAS 1-2 -9.2% 6.6 0.8% 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 2.9% 4.3% 5.1% 1.9% 7.2% 12.3% 3.0%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
MIN 3-0 6.2% 10.3 20.5% 14.6% 11.2% 4.3% 13.3% 9.0% 50.6% 35.0% 22.3% 72.9% 21.7%
GB 2-1 12.0% 9.7 12.9% 10.4% 8.5% 4.5% 16.5% 10.6% 36.3% 23.3% 27.2% 63.4% 13.2%
DET 1-2 -0.1% 7.8 2.5% 3.2% 3.4% 2.1% 7.7% 8.6% 11.2% 5.8% 16.3% 27.5% -18.1%
CHI 0-3 -16.7% 5.4 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 1.4% 1.9% 0.4% 2.1% 4.1% -7.0%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ATL 2-1 -0.3% 8.1 3.1% 5.5% 9.0% 19.6% 2.1% 3.5% 37.2% 8.6% 5.7% 42.9% 20.2%
CAR 1-2 5.8% 7.8 1.8% 4.5% 8.4% 21.0% 1.3% 2.8% 35.7% 6.3% 4.1% 39.7% -19.0%
TB 1-2 -7.3% 6.8 0.6% 1.7% 3.9% 12.9% 0.8% 1.8% 19.1% 2.3% 2.6% 21.7% -3.5%
NO 0-3 -5.3% 5.7 0.2% 0.6% 1.6% 5.6% 0.5% 1.2% 8.0% 0.8% 1.8% 9.8% -8.1%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
SEA 2-1 26.6% 10.4 22.2% 19.3% 13.2% 6.8% 8.4% 7.4% 61.5% 41.5% 15.8% 77.3% 10.8%
ARI 1-2 13.2% 8.6 5.5% 7.6% 6.3% 4.0% 10.3% 10.6% 23.3% 13.1% 20.8% 44.2% -21.0%
LARM 2-1 -5.1% 7.9 2.3% 3.7% 3.8% 2.3% 7.0% 8.5% 12.1% 6.0% 15.5% 27.6% 5.1%
SF 1-2 -15.7% 6.2 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 3.1% 3.1% 1.0% 4.8% 8.0% -6.6%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 3-0 -4.6% or 18.4% 10.9 29.1% 21.0% 19.7% 7.3% 3.6% 3.9% 77.2% 50.2% 7.5% 84.6% 9.8%
BUF 1-2 -2.7% 7.5 1.1% 2.3% 4.6% 2.9% 4.3% 6.1% 11.0% 3.5% 10.4% 21.4% 6.6%
MIA 1-2 -10.8% 6.7 0.6% 1.0% 1.9% 1.4% 3.3% 4.5% 4.9% 1.6% 7.8% 12.7% 4.9%
NYJ 1-2 -10.5% 6.6 0.5% 1.2% 3.0% 2.2% 1.9% 3.4% 6.9% 1.8% 5.3% 12.2% -15.5%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
BAL 3-0 10.3% 10.4 19.4% 16.5% 13.7% 3.9% 12.1% 9.2% 53.5% 35.9% 21.3% 74.8% 9.5%
PIT 2-1 7.9% 9.4 9.7% 10.1% 9.1% 4.0% 12.9% 10.9% 32.9% 19.8% 23.8% 56.8% -21.4%
CIN 1-2 4.3% 8.1 2.3% 4.0% 4.7% 2.3% 6.6% 9.2% 13.3% 6.3% 15.8% 29.1% -13.1%
CLE 0-3 -28.1% 4.1 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% -0.9%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
HOU 2-1 -12.8% 7.6 1.4% 3.2% 7.0% 21.9% 1.2% 2.4% 33.4% 4.6% 3.6% 37.0% -13.4%
IND 1-2 -6.5% 7.3 1.0% 2.7% 6.5% 19.1% 1.1% 2.3% 29.4% 3.8% 3.3% 32.7% 10.5%
TEN 1-2 -8.8% 7.2 0.8% 2.2% 5.4% 18.8% 1.0% 2.0% 27.3% 3.1% 2.9% 30.2% -5.9%
JAC 0-3 -13.6% 5.5 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 8.1% 0.2% 0.7% 9.9% 0.4% 0.9% 10.8% -0.6%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 2-1 18.8% or 20.8% 10.1 15.2% 15.1% 9.9% 3.5% 15.4% 11.2% 43.7% 30.3% 26.6% 70.2% 16.7%
DEN 3-0 5.9% 9.8 13.0% 11.2% 6.3% 1.9% 17.4% 12.9% 32.3% 24.2% 30.3% 62.6% 11.2%
OAK 2-1 1.5% 8.4 4.1% 5.4% 3.9% 1.4% 10.8% 11.3% 14.9% 9.6% 22.1% 37.0% 13.0%
SD 1-2 2.7% 8.0 1.7% 3.4% 2.9% 1.2% 8.1% 9.7% 9.1% 5.1% 17.8% 26.9% -11.5%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-0
SEA 43.2%27.8%16.4%0.0%
NE 44.9%25.9%13.9%0.4%
KC 32.9%18.8%10.3%0.0%
BAL 31.5%15.9%7.8%0.1%
PHI 28.0%14.2%7.0%0.1%
MIN 27.6%12.9%6.1%0.1%
GB 23.6%11.6%6.0%0.0%
DEN 21.3%10.3%4.7%0.1%
PIT 19.4%9.3%4.3%0.0%
ARI 15.4%8.1%4.3%0.0%
DAL 12.3%5.2%2.2%0.0%
CAR 10.5%4.6%2.1%0.0%
ATL 10.4%4.4%2.0%0.0%
OAK 9.7%4.2%1.9%0.0%
CIN 7.5%3.4%1.5%0.0%
NYG 8.0%3.2%1.3%0.0%
SD 6.4%2.8%1.2%0.0%
DET 6.4%2.6%1.1%0.0%
LARM 5.7%2.3%0.9%0.0%
IND 5.8%2.2%0.8%0.0%
BUF 4.5%1.8%0.8%0.0%
HOU 5.7%1.9%0.7%0.0%
TEN 5.0%1.7%0.6%0.0%
TB 3.7%1.4%0.5%0.0%
WAS 2.1%0.7%0.3%0.0%
NYJ 2.0%0.7%0.2%0.0%
NO 1.6%0.6%0.2%0.0%
MIA 1.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%
JAC 1.3%0.4%0.2%0.0%
SF 1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 3 Pick
CLE 29.4% 57.2%
CHI 13.7% 35.2%
JAC 11.2% 30.2%
NO 9.5% 27.4%
SF 6.5% 21.7%
TB 3.8% 14.3%
MIA 3.5% 13.9%
NYJ 3.3% 12.6%
WAS 3.0% 12.3%
TEN 3.2% 12.2%
IND 2.6% 9.6%
BUF 1.6% 7.3%
DET 1.5% 6.1%
HOU 1.0% 5.6%
CAR 1.2% 5.6%
SD 1.1% 5.4%
LARM 0.8% 4.8%
CIN 0.6% 3.4%
ATL 0.5% 3.2%
NYG 0.5% 2.9%
ARI 0.5% 2.4%
OAK 0.3% 2.1%
DAL 0.2% 1.7%
PIT 0.1% 0.8%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 7.1%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 3.7%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 3.0%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 2.9%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 2.7%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 2.5%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 2.4%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 2.3%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 2.2%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 1.4%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 1.2%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 1.2%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 1.2%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 1.0%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 0.9%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 0.8%
Steve Smith Reunion Special CAR vs BAL 0.7%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.7%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LARM vs NE 0.6%
Super Bowl V Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.6%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.6%
DeMarcus Ware Reunion Special DAL vs DEN 0.6%
2012 Draft Showdown SEA vs IND 0.6%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 0.6%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.5%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.5%
Super Bowl L Rematch CAR vs DEN 0.5%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.5%
Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch ATL vs DEN 0.4%
Mike Zimmer Reunion Special MIN vs CIN 0.4%
Carson Palmer Reunion Special ARI vs CIN 0.3%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LARM vs PIT 0.2%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special SEA vs NYJ 0.2%
Queen City Challenge CAR vs CIN 0.2%
Bruce Arians Reunion Special ARI vs IND 0.1%
Gus Bradley Reunion Special SEA vs JAC 0.1%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch MIN vs MIA 0.1%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.1%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.1%
Jersey Shore Bowl PHI vs NYJ 0.1%
Jim Caldwell Reunion Special DET vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl XXII Rematch WAS vs DEN 0.1%
Alex Smith Reunion Special SF vs KC 0.1%
Super Bowl XXV Rematch NYG vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 0.1%
Jeff Fisher Reunion Special LARM vs TEN 0.1%