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The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw
assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will
be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA
ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins
for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each
playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye
week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents
odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
AFC East
Team
Rec
WEI DVOA
Mean Wins
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
DIV
BYE
WC
TOT
CHANGE
NYJ
8-4
6.1%
10.5
0.6%
8.9%
54.3%
9.9%
0.9%
1.9%
73.7%
9.5%
2.8%
76.5%
-15.2%
MIA
7-5
0.9%
9.1
0.0%
0.3%
15.3%
0.8%
0.4%
2.2%
16.4%
0.3%
2.6%
19.0%
8.8%
NE
7-5
-4.5%
8.9
0.0%
0.1%
8.3%
0.6%
1.5%
2.7%
9.1%
0.1%
4.2%
13.3%
-21.9%
BUF
6-6
-14.6%
7.6
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
0.9%
0.0%
0.8%
1.7%
-3.3%
AFC North
Team
Rec
WEI DVOA
Mean Wins
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
DIV
BYE
WC
TOT
CHANGE
PIT
9-3
21.2%
11.3
12.1%
49.1%
5.2%
0.1%
11.3%
20.7%
66.5%
61.2%
31.9%
98.4%
11.0%
BAL
8-4
30.6%
10.7
0.3%
30.1%
3.1%
0.1%
22.6%
38.4%
33.5%
30.4%
60.9%
94.4%
12.5%
CIN
1-10-1
-28.0%
3.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
CLE
4-8
-6.9%
5.4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
AFC South
Team
Rec
WEI DVOA
Mean Wins
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
DIV
BYE
WC
TOT
CHANGE
TEN
11-1
31.6%
13.5
86.4%
11.1%
1.7%
0.0%
0.5%
0.2%
99.3%
97.6%
0.7%
100.0%
0.0%
IND
8-4
13.6%
10.9
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
62.7%
33.3%
0.7%
0.7%
96.0%
96.7%
8.2%
JAC
4-8
-9.6%
5.4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
HOU
5-7
-3.7%
6.7
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
AFC West
Team
Rec
WEI DVOA
Mean Wins
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
DIV
BYE
WC
TOT
CHANGE
DEN
7-5
-5.6%
9.0
0.0%
0.2%
11.3%
84.9%
0.0%
0.0%
96.3%
0.2%
0.0%
96.3%
25.1%
SD
4-8
-1.8%
6.1
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
3.6%
-23.2%
OAK
3-9
-18.5%
4.5
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
-1.8%
KC
2-10
-29.8%
3.5
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
NFC East
Team
Rec
WEI DVOA
Mean Wins
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
DIV
BYE
WC
TOT
CHANGE
NYG
11-1
39.0%
13.5
85.4%
14.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
99.8%
0.0%
100.0%
0.2%
DAL
8-4
-2.7%
9.2
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6.0%
14.8%
0.1%
0.1%
20.9%
20.9%
4.2%
WAS
7-5
6.6%
8.9
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.4%
13.3%
0.0%
0.0%
17.7%
17.7%
-23.5%
PHI
6-5-1
29.3%
9.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.8%
10.5%
0.0%
0.0%
13.3%
13.3%
1.8%
NFC North
Team
Rec
WEI DVOA
Mean Wins
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
DIV
BYE
WC
TOT
CHANGE
MIN
7-5
5.6%
8.8
0.1%
0.7%
24.1%
28.9%
0.0%
0.5%
53.8%
0.7%
0.5%
54.3%
31.6%
GB
5-7
14.0%
7.7
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
23.7%
0.0%
0.0%
24.7%
0.0%
0.0%
24.7%
-13.0%
CHI
6-6
-1.5%
8.1
0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
16.9%
0.1%
0.5%
21.6%
0.0%
0.6%
22.2%
-21.8%
DET
0-12
-50.5%
1.1
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
NFC South
Team
Rec
WEI DVOA
Mean Wins
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
DIV
BYE
WC
TOT
CHANGE
TB
9-3
21.0%
11.4
6.9%
52.6%
1.5%
0.0%
19.6%
13.5%
60.9%
59.4%
33.1%
94.0%
10.4%
CAR
9-3
16.1%
11.1
7.4%
17.4%
0.3%
0.0%
42.3%
16.7%
25.1%
24.8%
58.9%
84.0%
15.5%
ATL
8-4
13.8%
10.4
0.3%
12.6%
1.2%
0.0%
23.6%
27.1%
14.1%
12.8%
50.7%
64.7%
8.6%
NO
6-6
12.5%
8.2
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
3.1%
0.0%
0.0%
4.3%
4.3%
-14.0%
NFC West
Team
Rec
WEI DVOA
Mean Wins
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
DIV
BYE
WC
TOT
CHANGE
ARI
7-5
7.2%
9.9
0.0%
2.4%
67.1%
30.5%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
2.4%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
STL
2-10
-48.3%
3.4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
SEA
2-10
-22.8%
3.5
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
SF
4-8
-21.9%
5.5
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
Reaching the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Super Bowl
Team
Conf App
Conf Win
SB Win
16-0
15-1
NYG
69.3%
46.7%
27.0%
15.7%
TEN
67.1%
40.9%
21.9%
14.7%
PIT
49.8%
24.2%
11.4%
TB
49.0%
21.7%
10.6%
BAL
33.9%
17.3%
9.0%
CAR
30.8%
13.1%
5.8%
IND
20.0%
7.6%
3.2%
ATL
17.2%
6.5%
3.0%
ARI
20.7%
7.4%
2.9%
NYJ
20.7%
7.3%
2.7%
MIN
7.5%
2.6%
0.9%
MIA
4.2%
1.4%
0.5%
PHI
1.2%
0.5%
0.3%
DAL
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
DEN
2.3%
0.6%
0.2%
NE
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
WAS
1.1%
0.4%
0.2%
CHI
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
NO
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
GB
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
BUF
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
ON THE CLOCK
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall
draft pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.