Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 11/25/14, through Week 12.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. (Ties are added in as 0.5 wins.) Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PHI 8-3 13.3% 10.8 12.0% 21.3% 24.1% 0.0% 7.4% 9.7% 57.3% 33.2% 17.1% 74.4% 1.0%
DAL 8-3 8.9% 10.7 15.3% 17.2% 10.2% 0.0% 15.9% 15.4% 42.7% 32.5% 31.3% 73.9% 10.0%
NYG 3-8 -18.1% 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
WAS 3-8 -19.6% 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
GB 8-3 25.4% 11.2 24.4% 27.3% 20.7% 0.0% 8.2% 8.8% 72.4% 51.7% 17.0% 89.4% 4.6%
DET 7-4 3.7% 10.1 4.3% 10.5% 12.7% 0.0% 9.6% 18.3% 27.5% 14.8% 28.0% 55.5% -22.6%
CHI 5-6 -12.7% 7.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 2.4% 0.5%
MIN 4-7 -13.2% 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NO 4-7 2.0% 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.2% 0.0% 0.0% 57.2% 0.0% 0.0% 57.2% -2.0%
ATL 4-7 -9.0% 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% -5.2%
CAR 3-7-1 -20.3% 5.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 7.3%
TB 2-9 -28.5% 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.1%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ARI 9-2 1.0% 11.3 41.0% 14.6% 6.2% 0.0% 24.1% 8.5% 61.8% 55.6% 32.5% 94.3% -2.8%
SF 7-4 8.2% 9.8 1.4% 4.3% 12.2% 0.0% 18.4% 18.7% 17.9% 5.7% 37.1% 55.0% -0.5%
SEA 7-4 16.0% 9.8 1.7% 4.7% 13.8% 0.0% 15.9% 18.7% 20.3% 6.5% 34.6% 54.9% 11.4%
STL 4-7 -13.1% 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -1.1%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 9-2 29.7% 12.0 46.4% 26.1% 13.1% 4.0% 3.3% 2.4% 89.7% 72.6% 5.7% 95.4% 4.9%
MIA 6-5 21.3% 9.3 0.2% 2.2% 3.4% 2.6% 8.3% 14.3% 8.3% 2.4% 22.6% 31.0% -18.8%
BUF 6-5 9.6% 8.4 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 2.1% 4.2% 1.9% 1.1% 6.3% 8.2% 1.2%
NYJ 2-9 -19.9% 3.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
BAL 7-4 23.2% 10.4 9.9% 15.4% 12.4% 2.2% 16.1% 13.0% 39.9% 25.3% 29.1% 69.0% 11.5%
PIT 7-4 7.4% 9.8 1.0% 5.3% 15.0% 9.5% 9.1% 12.6% 30.8% 6.2% 21.7% 52.5% -5.9%
CIN 7-3-1 0.8% 9.3 3.0% 7.3% 9.1% 3.3% 12.5% 12.4% 22.7% 10.3% 24.9% 47.6% 15.5%
CLE 7-4 -4.5% 9.1 1.2% 2.6% 2.4% 0.3% 6.8% 10.3% 6.6% 3.8% 17.2% 23.8% 7.4%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
IND 7-4 6.8% 9.9 2.7% 8.2% 18.8% 66.2% 0.0% 0.0% 95.9% 11.0% 0.0% 95.9% 7.8%
HOU 5-6 -9.2% 7.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.7% 0.2% 0.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.9% 5.0% -11.4%
TEN 2-9 -21.2% 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%
JAC 1-10 -27.7% 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DEN 8-3 35.0% 11.3 30.8% 24.3% 15.4% 2.0% 13.6% 6.4% 72.5% 55.1% 20.0% 92.5% 6.8%
KC 7-4 14.2% 9.9 4.2% 7.3% 8.2% 5.0% 22.8% 16.3% 24.8% 11.5% 39.1% 63.9% -23.7%
SD 7-4 0.2% 8.7 0.2% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 5.0% 7.5% 2.7% 0.7% 12.5% 15.3% 4.6%
OAK 1-10 -17.1% 2.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
NE 56.8%32.2%18.7%
DEN 50.1%28.5%17.0%
GB 46.7%28.6%14.5%
PHI 31.1%16.2%7.4%
BAL 25.1%12.5%7.0%
ARI 39.8%18.4%6.9%
DAL 28.5%14.1%5.9%
IND 20.1%7.5%3.6%
KC 15.2%6.9%3.6%
SEA 14.0%6.7%3.2%
DET 14.5%6.5%2.6%
SF 11.7%5.0%2.1%
PIT 9.8%3.8%1.8%
MIA 7.0%3.1%1.8%
CIN 9.1%3.3%1.4%
NO 9.6%3.4%1.3%
CLE 3.4%1.1%0.4%
ATL 3.1%0.8%0.3%
BUF 1.5%0.6%0.3%
SD 1.6%0.5%0.2%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 3 Pick
OAK 46.2% 83.8%
JAC 24.2% 68.0%
NYJ 13.3% 54.1%
TB 9.7% 45.3%
TEN 4.9% 25.6%
WAS 0.8% 9.7%
NYG 0.7% 8.4%
CAR 0.1% 2.8%
STL 0.0% 0.7%
MIN 0.0% 0.7%
ATL 0.0% 0.6%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups.

Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl XXXI rematch GB vs NE 9.0%
Super Bowl XXXII rematch GB vs DEN 8.2%
Super Bowl XXXIX rematch PHI vs NE 5.2%
DeMarcus Ware Reunion Special DAL vs DEN 3.9%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special I SEA vs NE 2.3%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 2.0%
Super Bowl I rematch GB vs KC 2.0%
Super Bowl XLVIII rematch SEA vs DEN 1.9%
Bruce Arians Reunion Special ARI vs IND 1.4%
Super Bowl XXIV rematch SF vs DEN 1.4%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 1.1%
Super Bowl XLV rematch GB vs PIT 1.1%
Peyton vs. Payton II NO vs DEN 0.9%
Super Bowl XLIII rematch ARI vs PIT 0.8%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.6%
Carson Palmer Reunion Special ARI vs CIN 0.6%
Harbaugh Bowl II SF vs BAL 0.6%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX rematch DAL vs PIT 0.5%
Jim Caldwell Reunion Special DET vs IND 0.5%
2012 Draft Showdown II SEA vs IND 0.5%
Super Bowl VI rematch DAL vs MIA 0.5%
Alex Smith Reunion Special SF vs KC 0.4%
Super Bowl XLIV rematch NO vs IND 0.3%
Super Bowl XL rematch SEA vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXIII rematch ATL vs DEN 0.2%
Super Bowl XIX rematch SF vs MIA 0.2%
Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl SF vs CIN 0.2%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.1%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.1%
Ultra College-Coach Showdown PHI vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII rematch DAL vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch CAR vs NE 0.1%
John Fox Reunion Special CAR vs DEN 0.1%