Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 12/12/17, through Week 14.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

Weighted DVOA ratings used in the simulation are adjusted as follows:

  • Dallas rating is adjusted downward -2.5% in Week 15 and then upward 2.5% in Weeks 16-17 (and playoffs, if necessary) due to Ezekiel Elliott suspension.
  • Green Bay rating uses offensive DVOA based on what offensive DAVE was after Week 5 when Aaron Rodgers last played a full game.
  • Houston rating only uses offensive DVOA since Deshaun Watson was injured.
  • Philadelphia rating is adjusted (-15.0%) for Nick Foles replacing Carson Wentz.
  • Arizona rating is no longer adjusted because offensive DVOA without Carson Palmer has been similar to offensive DVOA with Carson Palmer.

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PHI 11-2 18.9% 13.1 90.7% 6.7% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
DAL 7-6 15.8% 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 10.5% 3.4%
WAS 5-8 -10.3% 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5%
NYG 2-11 -26.2% 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
MIN 10-3 20.4% 11.9 8.3% 65.3% 14.8% 10.1% 0.3% 1.0% 98.5% 73.6% 1.3% 99.8% -0.1%
DET 7-6 -1.5% 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 10.2% 0.6% 0.0% 11.5% 12.2% 2.2%
GB 7-6 16.8% 8.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 3.6% 11.0% 0.9% 0.0% 14.6% 15.4% 4.3%
CHI 4-9 -9.1% 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NO 9-4 35.7% 11.4 0.3% 9.1% 31.4% 38.4% 14.3% 4.1% 79.2% 9.4% 18.4% 97.7% -1.1%
CAR 9-4 14.4% 10.8 0.1% 4.2% 3.5% 5.6% 52.5% 15.2% 13.5% 4.4% 67.7% 81.2% 11.7%
ATL 8-5 1.8% 9.3 0.0% 0.9% 2.9% 3.5% 16.1% 27.6% 7.3% 1.0% 43.7% 51.0% 15.2%
TB 4-9 -18.1% 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LARM 9-4 40.0% 11.3 0.4% 13.2% 42.1% 26.6% 7.6% 5.9% 82.3% 13.6% 13.5% 95.8% -2.7%
SEA 8-5 10.6% 9.5 0.0% 0.5% 3.8% 13.4% 2.8% 16.0% 17.7% 0.5% 18.7% 36.4% -32.4%
ARI 6-7 -6.5% 7.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%
SF 3-10 -19.8% 3.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 10-3 22.7% 12.0 30.7% 33.7% 34.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 99.2% 64.4% 0.7% 99.9% -0.1%
BUF 7-6 -16.7% 8.2 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 7.3% 16.6% 0.8% 0.1% 24.0% 24.8% 12.6%
MIA 6-7 -21.3% 7.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 12.2% 10.3%
NYJ 5-8 -13.6% 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -1.6%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 11-2 22.6% 13.2 66.4% 26.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
BAL 7-6 24.7% 9.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.4% 36.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80.3% 80.3% -7.8%
CIN 5-8 -8.0% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% -1.5%
CLE 0-13 -21.9% 0.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
JAC 9-4 19.6% 11.2 2.9% 39.1% 44.8% 0.3% 11.9% 0.9% 87.1% 42.0% 12.8% 99.9% 1.3%
TEN 8-5 -13.4% 9.1 0.0% 0.2% 10.7% 2.1% 30.8% 24.1% 12.9% 0.2% 54.9% 67.8% -20.8%
HOU 4-9 -28.0% 4.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%
IND 3-10 -20.8% 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LACH 7-6 12.6% 8.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 37.1% 0.8% 7.5% 37.5% 0.0% 8.3% 45.7% 12.1%
KC 7-6 -0.5% 8.8 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 58.5% 1.7% 3.9% 61.0% 0.0% 5.7% 66.7% 9.8%
OAK 6-7 -9.7% 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.9% 2.5% -14.3%
DEN 4-9 -32.0% 5.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
PIT 65.2%36.7%17.4%
PHI 56.4%29.0%14.3%
LARM 39.5%23.0%14.2%
NE 54.2%28.8%13.7%
NO 34.9%18.2%10.8%
MIN 44.7%21.1%10.6%
JAC 40.5%19.2%8.7%
BAL 17.5%8.1%3.9%
CAR 11.6%4.4%2.0%
LACH 8.8%3.4%1.3%
KC 8.6%2.7%0.9%
SEA 5.0%1.8%0.8%
ATL 4.1%1.2%0.5%
GB 1.9%0.7%0.3%
TEN 3.7%0.9%0.2%
DAL 1.3%0.4%0.2%
BUF 1.1%0.2%0.1%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CLE 97.1% 100.0%
NYG 2.7% 97.3%
SF 0.1% 84.3%
IND 0.1% 74.5%
DEN 0.0% 49.9%
HOU 0.0% 47.5%
TB 0.0% 24.7%
CHI 0.0% 11.8%
CIN 0.0% 7.7%
NYJ 0.0% 1.9%
WAS 0.0% 0.3%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 10.7%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LARM vs PIT 8.5%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 8.3%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 7.8%
Stop Trying to Make Fetch Happen NO vs PIT 6.6%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LARM vs NE 6.4%
Brandin Cooks Reunion Special NO vs NE 5.4%
London Bowl LARM vs JAC 4.5%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 2.3%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 1.3%
1995 Expansion Challenge CAR vs JAC 0.8%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.8%
Battle for Los Angeles LARM vs LACH 0.8%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LACH 0.7%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.6%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LARM vs KC 0.6%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.5%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 0.4%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.1%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.1%
Romney Bowl DET vs NE 0.1%