Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 10/17/17, through Week 6.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

The DAVE ratings used in the simulation are adjusted as follows:

  • Arizona rating goes up 8.0% with David Johnson returning Week 12 in 12 percent of simulations; in Week 14 in 24 percent of simulations; and in Week 16 in 60 percent of simulations. In 40 percent of simulations, David Johnson does not return this season.
  • Dallas rating is reduced 7.0% for Weeks 7-12 in 40 percent of simulations to reflect Ezekiel Elliott suspension; we gave a 60 percent chance of the suspension being further postponed by the appellate process.
  • Green Bay DAVE on stats pages now incorporates a projection with Brett Hundley, not Aaron Rodgers, at quarterback. For the playoff odds, we re-calculated DAVE with Rodgers playing the rest of the year, then gave the Packers a DVOA penalty of 16.7%.
  • Indianapolis base DAVE is based on backup quarterbacks, not Andrew Luck. Indianapolis rating goes up 20.0% due to Andrew Luck return in Week 7 in 20 percent of simulations. Chance of return goes up 20 percent each week and is 80 percent for Week 10, then 92 percent from Week 11 onwards.

 

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PHI 5-1 20.7% 11.5 41.6% 19.3% 11.1% 6.3% 9.1% 4.7% 78.3% 60.9% 13.8% 92.1% 12.2%
WAS 3-2 13.5% 9.3 7.0% 4.5% 3.3% 2.0% 21.4% 13.5% 16.8% 11.5% 34.9% 51.7% 2.5%
DAL 2-3 1.7% or -5.3% 7.0 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 3.0% 4.4% 4.7% 1.6% 7.3% 12.0% -2.5%
NYG 1-5 -12.5% 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
MIN 4-2 13.8% 9.9 10.2% 14.0% 13.7% 13.1% 8.2% 9.0% 50.9% 24.2% 17.2% 68.2% 28.3%
DET 3-3 9.3% 9.0 1.9% 6.0% 11.1% 14.6% 5.2% 8.1% 33.7% 8.0% 13.3% 47.0% -2.5%
GB 4-2 -11.0% 8.3 1.5% 3.2% 4.7% 5.1% 5.5% 7.9% 14.6% 4.7% 13.5% 28.0% -41.6%
CHI 2-4 -22.8% 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CAR 4-2 5.7% 9.7 5.7% 11.2% 10.3% 7.2% 10.6% 11.4% 34.3% 16.9% 22.1% 56.4% -5.4%
NO 3-2 11.4% 9.5 7.4% 10.7% 10.8% 9.5% 8.6% 9.7% 38.4% 18.1% 18.3% 56.7% 26.8%
ATL 3-2 5.1% 8.6 4.4% 6.6% 5.8% 4.7% 9.8% 10.3% 21.6% 11.1% 20.1% 41.7% -16.1%
TB 2-3 -8.6% 6.8 0.3% 1.1% 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 3.5% 5.7% 1.3% 5.1% 10.8% -10.3%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LARM 4-2 17.9% 10.1 11.6% 13.0% 13.7% 14.6% 8.6% 7.8% 52.9% 24.6% 16.3% 69.3% 14.3%
SEA 3-2 11.3% 9.3 7.8% 8.9% 10.8% 14.3% 7.3% 7.6% 41.7% 16.6% 14.9% 56.6% -9.6%
ARI 3-3 -18.3% or -10.3% 6.6 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 3.7% 0.7% 1.5% 5.3% 0.5% 2.1% 7.4% 3.1%
SF 0-6 -19.5% 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% -0.1%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 4-2 11.3% 10.0 7.8% 17.6% 18.5% 12.1% 10.1% 8.1% 56.0% 25.4% 18.2% 74.3% 17.6%
BUF 3-2 5.9% 9.2 5.7% 8.8% 12.6% 10.1% 10.6% 10.1% 37.2% 14.5% 20.7% 57.9% -2.2%
MIA 3-2 -22.7% 6.8 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% 3.1% 4.2% 4.6% 1.1% 7.2% 11.8% 3.2%
NYJ 3-3 -20.6% 6.6 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 2.3% 3.5% 2.2% 0.5% 5.9% 8.0% -7.9%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 4-2 22.8% 10.6 20.7% 22.5% 16.2% 13.3% 8.0% 5.8% 72.7% 43.2% 13.8% 86.5% 15.8%
BAL 3-3 8.6% 8.7 2.1% 5.0% 4.6% 4.6% 17.1% 14.0% 16.4% 7.2% 31.1% 47.5% -7.1%
CIN 2-3 6.8% 7.9 1.1% 2.9% 3.3% 3.5% 8.6% 9.3% 10.8% 4.0% 17.9% 28.8% -0.2%
CLE 0-6 -42.1% 2.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
JAC 3-3 8.1% 9.2 4.0% 9.7% 13.8% 16.5% 8.7% 9.1% 44.0% 13.7% 17.8% 61.8% -16.4%
HOU 3-3 12.7% 8.7 1.2% 5.0% 9.1% 15.9% 6.3% 8.7% 31.2% 6.3% 15.0% 46.2% 9.9%
TEN 3-3 -0.4% 8.1 0.7% 2.9% 6.3% 13.5% 3.8% 6.1% 23.3% 3.5% 9.9% 33.2% 9.0%
IND 2-4 -36.4% or -16.4% 5.2 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.6% 1.2% 1.6% 0.2% 1.8% 3.4% -1.4%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 5-1 25.7% 12.1 54.1% 21.8% 10.3% 4.6% 3.7% 2.1% 90.7% 75.9% 5.8% 96.6% -0.3%
DEN 3-2 -2.3% 8.0 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.4% 12.0% 10.7% 7.2% 3.8% 22.7% 29.9% -13.8%
LACH 2-4 -7.0% 6.6 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 2.9% 4.0% 0.8% 0.3% 6.9% 7.7% 4.0%
OAK 2-4 -5.5% 6.3 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 5.1% 6.4% -10.2%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
KC 60.9%37.5%21.6%
PHI 49.7%29.3%15.1%
PIT 42.6%23.0%12.7%
LARM 27.3%14.1%7.0%
MIN 24.5%12.0%5.5%
NE 24.6%10.8%5.3%
SEA 18.0%8.7%4.0%
NO 18.3%8.8%4.0%
WAS 14.4%7.3%3.5%
JAC 16.0%6.5%3.1%
CAR 15.8%6.8%2.9%
BUF 14.8%6.0%2.7%
HOU 11.7%5.1%2.6%
DET 12.3%5.5%2.5%
BAL 10.6%4.4%2.1%
ATL 10.7%4.5%1.8%
CIN 5.9%2.4%1.1%
TEN 5.6%1.9%0.7%
DEN 4.5%1.7%0.7%
GB 4.1%1.3%0.4%
DAL 2.3%0.9%0.4%
TB 1.6%0.5%0.2%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CLE 70.2% 97.9%
SF 17.8% 82.3%
IND 2.9% 55.6%
NYG 4.4% 53.7%
CHI 1.9% 40.4%
ARI 0.5% 22.8%
LACH 0.6% 21.4%
OAK 0.5% 21.1%
NYJ 0.2% 20.3%
TB 0.3% 16.0%
DAL 0.3% 14.5%
MIA 0.1% 13.5%
CIN 0.1% 7.6%
TEN 0.2% 7.0%
DEN 0.1% 5.8%
BAL 0.0% 3.3%
GB 0.0% 2.6%
HOU 0.0% 2.3%
JAC 0.0% 2.2%
ATL 0.0% 2.0%
SEA 0.0% 1.9%
DET 0.0% 1.8%
BUF 0.0% 1.3%
WAS 0.0% 1.1%
NO 0.0% 0.6%
CAR 0.0% 0.3%
LARM 0.0% 0.3%
MIN 0.0% 0.2%
NE 0.0% 0.2%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 11.0%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 6.6%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 4.4%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LARM vs PIT 3.3%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 3.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 2.9%
Angry Native American Activists Bowl WAS vs KC 2.7%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 2.0%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LARM vs NE 1.6%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 1.3%
Brandin Cooks Reunion Special NO vs NE 0.9%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.9%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.7%
Fifth Time's the Charm MIN vs BUF 0.7%
Romney Bowl DET vs NE 0.6%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 0.5%
Super Bowl XXVI Rematch WAS vs BUF 0.4%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 0.4%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.3%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.3%
Mike Zimmer Reunion Special MIN vs CIN 0.3%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.2%
Queen City Challenge CAR vs CIN 0.2%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XXII Rematch WAS vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl L Rematch CAR vs DEN 0.1%
Hobnail Boot Bowl ATL vs TEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch ATL vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.1%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.1%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 0.1%