Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 12/23/14, through Week 16.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 11-4 15.7% 11.6 0.0% 22.5% 77.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 22.5% 0.0% 100.0% 13.9%
PHI 9-6 15.3% 9.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -35.3%
NYG 6-9 -4.6% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WAS 4-11 -37.4% 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
GB 11-4 23.6% 11.7 21.6% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.4% 71.6% 71.6% 28.4% 100.0% 7.2%
DET 11-4 2.5% 11.3 7.9% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 71.6% 28.4% 28.4% 71.6% 100.0% 11.1%
MIN 6-9 -5.7% 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CHI 5-10 -20.6% 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ATL 6-9 -1.2% 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.8% 0.0% 0.0% 66.8% 0.0% 0.0% 66.8% 45.8%
CAR 6-8-1 -11.7% 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.2% 0.0% 0.0% 33.2% 0.0% 0.0% 33.2% 19.2%
NO 6-9 0.6% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -65.0%
TB 2-13 -29.0% 2.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
SEA 11-4 29.1% 11.7 69.8% 0.0% 22.5% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 92.3% 69.8% 7.7% 100.0% 3.1%
ARI 11-4 -14.7% 11.3 0.7% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 92.3% 0.0% 7.7% 7.7% 92.3% 100.0% 0.0%
SF 7-8 5.9% 7.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
STL 6-9 6.7% 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 12-3 35.8% 12.7 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
MIA 8-7 7.0% 8.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%
BUF 8-7 8.2% 8.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.4%
NYJ 3-12 -19.5% 3.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 10-5 13.4% 10.7 0.0% 0.0% 69.1% 0.0% 30.9% 0.0% 69.1% 0.0% 30.9% 100.0% 18.5%
CIN 10-4-1 0.9% 10.8 0.0% 3.3% 27.7% 0.0% 69.1% 0.0% 30.9% 3.3% 69.1% 100.0% 21.8%
BAL 9-6 22.0% 9.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54.8% 0.0% 0.0% 54.8% 54.8% -32.8%
CLE 7-8 -11.7% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
IND 10-5 0.7% 10.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
HOU 8-7 -7.0% 8.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 9.0% 6.8%
JAC 3-12 -23.0% 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TEN 2-13 -32.4% 2.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DEN 11-4 24.3% 11.9 0.0% 96.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
SD 9-6 0.2% 9.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.3% 0.0% 0.0% 32.3% 32.3% 22.2%
KC 8-7 9.6% 8.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 3.9% -30.2%
OAK 3-12 -25.6% 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
NE 73.6%45.7%25.9%
SEA 64.1%40.1%20.9%
DEN 67.9%33.0%17.2%
GB 55.4%29.4%14.5%
DAL 33.6%15.0%6.8%
PIT 19.5%8.2%3.7%
DET 24.2%9.2%3.5%
BAL 9.1%4.0%2.0%
IND 14.1%4.2%1.6%
CIN 12.7%4.0%1.5%
ATL 10.8%3.4%1.2%
ARI 8.5%2.0%0.6%
SD 2.2%0.7%0.3%
CAR 3.4%0.8%0.2%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 3 Pick
TB 75.1% 100.0%
TEN 24.9% 100.0%
JAC 0.0% 70.1%
NYJ 0.0% 23.6%
OAK 0.0% 5.9%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups.

Name Teams Chance
Pete Carroll Reunion Special SEA vs NE 18.4%
Super Bowl XXXI rematch GB vs NE 13.3%
Super Bowl XLVIII rematch SEA vs DEN 13.1%
Super Bowl XXXII rematch GB vs DEN 9.9%
DeMarcus Ware Reunion Special DAL vs DEN 4.9%
Super Bowl XL rematch SEA vs PIT 3.3%
Super Bowl XLV rematch GB vs PIT 2.4%
2012 Draft Showdown II SEA vs IND 1.7%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX rematch DAL vs PIT 1.2%
Super Bowl XXXIII rematch ATL vs DEN 1.2%
Jim Caldwell Reunion Special DET vs IND 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch CAR vs NE 0.4%
John Fox Reunion Special CAR vs DEN 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIII rematch ARI vs PIT 0.2%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.2%
Bruce Arians Reunion Special ARI vs IND 0.1%
Carson Palmer Reunion Special ARI vs CIN 0.1%