The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
Please note that the Playoff Odds Simulator uses a very simple formula that does not account for specific matchups. The percentages listed below do not necessarily reflect the opinion of any specific Football Outsiders writer about any specific playoff game, and may not agree with FO Premium picks.
|Odds to Win Super Bowl LI|