Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 11/29/16, through Week 12.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

  • The offensive portion of the New England rating used here is based solely on the offensive DVOA since Tom Brady returned from suspension.
  • The defensive portion of the Buffalo rating used here is adjusted to account for the massive outlier performance against an injured Jacoby Brissett in Week 4.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 10-1 23.1% 13.0 82.5% 6.1% 1.5% 0.3% 8.7% 0.7% 90.3% 88.5% 9.5% 99.8% 1.2%
NYG 8-3 5.1% 10.2 5.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 50.0% 19.2% 9.1% 8.2% 69.2% 78.3% 9.2%
WAS 6-4-1 9.7% 9.3 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 29.8% 0.5% 0.5% 55.0% 55.6% -7.0%
PHI 5-6 18.7% 7.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 14.0% -26.6%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DET 7-4 -10.6% 9.0 0.8% 5.2% 14.2% 29.4% 1.4% 5.7% 49.6% 6.0% 7.2% 56.8% 18.2%
MIN 6-5 1.2% 8.8 0.3% 2.1% 7.4% 18.1% 4.2% 8.7% 27.8% 2.3% 13.0% 40.8% -26.0%
GB 5-6 0.9% 7.8 0.0% 0.5% 3.5% 18.6% 0.6% 3.7% 22.6% 0.5% 4.3% 26.9% 18.0%
CHI 2-9 -9.0% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ATL 7-4 21.8% 10.3 4.1% 28.6% 36.1% 13.7% 1.7% 4.3% 82.5% 32.8% 6.0% 88.5% 2.5%
TB 6-5 2.6% 8.3 0.1% 1.4% 5.0% 3.4% 3.6% 10.5% 9.9% 1.4% 14.1% 24.0% 12.6%
NO 5-6 9.0% 7.6 0.0% 0.7% 4.1% 2.5% 0.3% 5.3% 7.4% 0.7% 5.6% 12.9% 2.2%
CAR 4-7 -2.2% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% -1.5%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
SEA 7-3-1 18.5% 10.9 6.1% 52.9% 26.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.2% 98.3% 59.0% 0.3% 98.6% -0.7%
ARI 4-6-1 -3.7% 6.6 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 1.3% 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 2.9% -0.9%
LARM 4-7 -14.4% 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% -0.6%
SF 1-10 -17.2% 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 9-2 27.5% 12.5 57.8% 33.0% 0.8% 0.0% 4.7% 2.7% 91.5% 90.8% 7.4% 98.9% 0.6%
MIA 7-4 12.3% 9.8 1.7% 6.2% 0.4% 0.0% 17.6% 31.4% 8.3% 7.9% 49.0% 57.3% 1.8%
BUF 6-5 3.7% 8.9 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 13.1% 0.2% 0.1% 20.8% 21.0% -1.5%
NYJ 3-8 -26.2% 4.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 6-5 13.4% 9.2 0.0% 3.4% 49.9% 7.2% 0.5% 2.1% 60.6% 3.5% 2.6% 63.1% 5.5%
BAL 6-5 6.4% 8.2 0.2% 1.3% 28.0% 8.3% 0.3% 2.3% 37.7% 1.4% 2.5% 40.2% 5.6%
CIN 3-7-1 -3.4% 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% -8.4%
CLE 0-12 -38.9% 0.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
TEN 6-6 0.2% 8.2 0.0% 0.3% 7.2% 29.5% 0.3% 1.4% 37.0% 0.3% 1.7% 38.6% 22.1%
HOU 6-5 -27.3% 7.9 0.0% 0.3% 7.1% 34.9% 0.0% 0.1% 42.2% 0.3% 0.1% 42.3% -10.9%
IND 5-6 -18.2% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 18.5% 0.0% 0.1% 20.6% 0.0% 0.1% 20.7% -12.8%
JAC 2-9 -20.3% 4.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
OAK 9-2 10.9% 11.7 31.5% 26.2% 1.0% 0.0% 26.2% 9.5% 58.7% 57.7% 35.8% 94.4% 5.0%
KC 8-3 11.7% 10.7 7.2% 27.0% 2.7% 0.3% 31.0% 16.9% 37.2% 34.2% 47.9% 85.2% 22.5%
DEN 7-4 2.4% 9.3 1.6% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 11.3% 17.5% 4.1% 3.8% 28.7% 32.8% -29.4%
SD 5-6 2.6% 7.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 3.4% 0.2%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
NE 70.2%45.4%25.4%
DAL 65.9%40.0%21.3%
SEA 48.7%23.6%11.7%
ATL 37.9%18.9%9.9%
OAK 43.2%19.4%8.9%
KC 32.0%13.4%6.2%
PIT 15.5%6.6%3.2%
MIA 13.5%5.9%2.7%
NYG 13.4%5.3%2.2%
BAL 7.7%3.2%1.4%
WAS 8.1%3.2%1.4%
DEN 5.9%2.2%0.9%
MIN 6.2%2.1%0.8%
TEN 5.5%1.9%0.7%
DET 7.0%2.0%0.6%
PHI 2.5%1.2%0.6%
TB 3.6%1.3%0.5%
GB 3.8%1.3%0.5%
NO 2.4%1.0%0.5%
BUF 2.8%1.0%0.4%
IND 1.5%0.3%0.1%
HOU 1.8%0.3%0.1%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CLE 85.7% 100.0%
SF 11.9% 97.5%
CHI 1.4% 83.0%
JAC 0.8% 75.8%
NYJ 0.1% 68.4%
LARM 0.0% 29.9%
CIN 0.0% 16.7%
CAR 0.0% 12.7%
ARI 0.0% 9.2%
IND 0.0% 4.4%
NO 0.0% 0.5%
SD 0.0% 0.4%
GB 0.0% 0.4%
PHI 0.0% 0.3%
TEN 0.0% 0.2%
BAL 0.0% 0.2%
HOU 0.0% 0.2%
MIN 0.0% 0.1%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
43 States of Hatred DAL vs NE 18.1%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 10.8%
Belichick vs. Spawn of Belichick ATL vs NE 8.6%
The Great '70s Super Bowl That Never Happened DAL vs OAK 7.8%
Lamar Hunt Revenge Bowl DAL vs KC 5.4%
AFC West Classic (version 1) SEA vs OAK 4.5%
Black on Black Bowl ATL vs OAK 3.7%
AFC West Classic (version 2) SEA vs KC 3.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 2.7%
Tony Gonzalez Legacy Bowl ATL vs KC 2.5%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 2.4%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 2.4%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 1.6%
AAFC Stolen Nickname Bowl SEA vs MIA 1.4%
Grit vs. Grits ATL vs PIT 1.2%
I-75 Bowl ATL vs MIA 1.2%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.9%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.6%
Super Bowl XVIIII Rematch WAS vs OAK 0.6%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.6%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.5%
Angry Native American Activists Bowl WAS vs KC 0.4%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch ATL vs DEN 0.4%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.4%
Del Boca Vista Bowl NYG vs MIA 0.3%
The Super Bowl with the Dragon Tattoo NYG vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.3%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.2%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 0.2%
Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch WAS vs MIA 0.2%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.2%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1%
Ndamukong Suh Reunion Special DET vs MIA 0.1%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.1%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch MIN vs MIA 0.1%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.1%
Florida Bowl (South vs. Central) TB vs MIA 0.1%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.1%
2012 Draft Showdown SEA vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.1%
Super Bowl XXII Rematch WAS vs DEN 0.1%