Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/19/17, through Week 2.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

The DVOA ratings used in the simulation are adjusted as follows:

  • Arizona rating goes up 8.0% with David Johnson returning Week 12 in 12 percent of simulations; in Week 14 in 24 percent of simulations; and in Week 16 in 60 percent of simulations. In 40 percent of simulations, David Johnson does not return this season.
  • In all simulations, Indianapolis rating is -16.0% lower in Week 3 due to Andrew Luck injury. Luck returns in Week 4 in 20 percent of simulations, and his odds of returning increase 20 percent each week until Week 7. In 92 percent of simulations, Luck has returned by Week 8. In the other simulations, he does not return all season.
  • Minnesota rating is -13.0% lower in 60 percent of Week 3 simulations and 20 percent of Week 4 and Week 5 simulations due to Sam Bradford injury.

 

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 1-1 9.1% 8.6 6.6% 8.4% 9.5% 12.9% 5.0% 6.1% 37.4% 15.0% 11.0% 48.4% -17.1%
PHI 1-1 3.0% 8.3 4.8% 6.7% 8.1% 12.0% 4.7% 6.0% 31.6% 11.5% 10.8% 42.4% -4.4%
WAS 1-1 1.1% 8.0 3.0% 5.2% 6.2% 8.4% 5.0% 6.4% 22.8% 8.2% 11.4% 34.2% 16.7%
NYG 0-2 -5.4% 6.3 0.4% 1.2% 2.2% 4.3% 1.4% 2.5% 8.2% 1.6% 3.9% 12.1% -11.8%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DET 2-0 11.4% 9.9 18.0% 13.9% 11.6% 6.9% 10.0% 8.1% 50.4% 31.9% 18.1% 68.5% 22.1%
GB 1-1 12.4% 9.0 7.8% 9.4% 9.4% 6.8% 9.2% 9.0% 33.4% 17.1% 18.2% 51.6% -13.4%
MIN 1-1 -4.0% or -17.0% 7.4 2.2% 3.0% 3.6% 3.4% 5.1% 6.1% 12.2% 5.2% 11.2% 23.3% -9.3%
CHI 0-2 -11.0% 5.9 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 4.1% 0.9% 3.1% 7.2% -6.8%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CAR 2-0 9.4% 9.9 17.0% 10.7% 7.7% 4.6% 14.8% 10.3% 40.1% 27.7% 25.1% 65.2% 6.6%
ATL 2-0 8.6% 9.8 15.6% 10.5% 7.5% 4.3% 15.2% 10.6% 37.9% 26.1% 25.8% 63.8% 11.7%
TB 1-0 -0.5% 8.5 6.4% 5.2% 4.4% 3.0% 10.7% 9.5% 19.1% 11.6% 20.2% 39.3% 12.9%
NO 0-2 -12.2% 5.9 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 2.7% 2.9% 1.1% 4.6% 7.5% -4.9%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
SEA 1-1 12.9% 9.5 10.0% 12.7% 12.9% 13.3% 5.5% 6.5% 49.0% 22.7% 12.0% 61.0% 10.1%
LARM 1-1 7.3% 8.8 5.4% 7.8% 8.8% 9.6% 6.1% 7.4% 31.6% 13.2% 13.4% 45.0% -17.7%
ARI 1-1 -7.8% or 0.2% 7.7 2.0% 3.5% 5.0% 6.3% 3.6% 5.5% 16.8% 5.5% 9.1% 25.9% 7.5%
SF 0-2 -20.9% 5.4 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 1.3% 2.6% 0.5% 2.0% 4.6% -2.3%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 1-1 16.3% 9.7 7.7% 14.0% 21.7% 17.7% 2.8% 4.6% 61.1% 21.7% 7.3% 68.4% -0.5%
BUF 1-1 -5.2% 7.7 1.4% 3.8% 7.0% 7.5% 3.3% 6.2% 19.7% 5.2% 9.5% 29.2% -10.1%
MIA 1-0 -9.5% 7.5 1.4% 3.3% 6.1% 6.3% 3.1% 5.6% 17.2% 4.7% 8.7% 25.9% 1.7%
NYJ 0-2 -27.0% 4.9 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.8% 2.0% 0.2% 1.1% 3.1% -3.1%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 2-0 29.0% 11.6 34.8% 16.2% 7.3% 2.9% 18.5% 8.4% 61.3% 51.0% 26.9% 88.2% 2.7%
BAL 2-0 17.8% 10.6 18.8% 10.7% 5.4% 2.4% 26.9% 13.3% 37.4% 29.6% 40.2% 77.7% 9.8%
CIN 0-2 -7.4% 6.2 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.6% 5.5% 6.6% -6.8%
CLE 0-2 -27.2% 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 1.5% -4.2%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
TEN 1-1 6.0% 9.1 4.5% 9.4% 17.9% 29.1% 1.2% 2.7% 60.9% 13.9% 3.9% 64.8% 23.1%
JAC 1-1 -10.2% 7.5 0.9% 2.5% 5.9% 11.3% 2.2% 4.4% 20.7% 3.5% 6.5% 27.3% -23.8%
HOU 1-1 -13.0% 6.9 0.6% 1.4% 3.8% 8.2% 1.3% 2.9% 13.9% 2.0% 4.2% 18.2% 4.0%
IND 0-2 -20.2% or -36.2% 5.0 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 3.1% 0.3% 1.0% 4.5% 0.3% 1.4% 5.8% -6.7%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 2-0 12.6% 10.1 13.9% 15.4% 8.1% 3.3% 12.8% 13.2% 40.7% 29.3% 26.0% 66.7% 7.6%
OAK 2-0 13.4% 9.8 11.3% 13.6% 7.9% 2.9% 13.2% 13.8% 35.6% 24.8% 27.0% 62.6% 6.6%
DEN 2-0 -1.6% 8.8 3.9% 7.1% 5.1% 2.5% 8.9% 12.4% 18.6% 11.0% 21.4% 39.9% 9.2%
LACH 0-2 0.4% 7.0 0.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 2.9% 6.1% 5.1% 2.2% 9.1% 14.2% -9.5%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-0
PIT 49.5%32.4%20.3%0.9%
BAL 29.4%16.0%9.0%0.2%
DET 28.8%15.7%7.2%0.1%
NE 25.8%12.4%6.9%0.0%
KC 25.4%11.9%6.4%0.1%
SEA 24.3%12.9%5.9%0.0%
OAK 23.4%10.7%5.8%0.1%
CAR 25.0%13.0%5.7%0.1%
ATL 23.7%12.3%5.5%0.1%
GB 19.0%10.0%4.7%0.0%
DAL 16.8%8.4%3.9%0.0%
TEN 16.9%7.0%3.4%0.0%
LARM 14.8%7.2%3.2%0.0%
PHI 12.4%5.7%2.4%0.0%
TB 10.5%4.7%1.9%0.0%
WAS 8.9%3.9%1.6%0.0%
DEN 9.3%3.2%1.4%0.0%
MIN 5.2%2.2%0.9%0.0%
ARI 5.4%2.0%0.8%0.0%
BUF 5.4%1.9%0.7%0.0%
MIA 4.4%1.4%0.6%0.0%
JAC 3.8%1.1%0.5%0.0%
LACH 2.7%1.0%0.5%0.0%
NYG 2.3%0.9%0.3%0.0%
HOU 2.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%
CHI 1.2%0.4%0.2%0.0%
NO 1.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CLE 18.2% 58.4%
IND 17.3% 56.9%
NYJ 16.3% 56.8%
SF 12.1% 48.2%
CHI 5.9% 34.0%
NO 5.9% 33.2%
CIN 4.7% 29.0%
NYG 4.0% 26.0%
HOU 2.6% 20.8%
LACH 2.3% 18.0%
JAC 2.4% 17.2%
ARI 1.2% 12.6%
BUF 1.2% 12.6%
MIN 1.1% 12.1%
MIA 1.1% 11.4%
WAS 0.7% 8.9%
PHI 0.5% 6.6%
TB 0.5% 6.3%
LARM 0.5% 6.0%
DAL 0.3% 4.6%
DEN 0.3% 4.4%
TEN 0.4% 4.0%
GB 0.2% 2.6%
SEA 0.1% 2.3%
NE 0.1% 1.4%
CAR 0.0% 1.3%
ATL 0.0% 1.2%
DET 0.1% 1.2%
OAK 0.0% 0.9%
KC 0.0% 0.8%
BAL 0.0% 0.5%
PIT 0.0% 0.1%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 4.3%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 3.3%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 2.7%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LARM vs PIT 2.4%
Romney Bowl DET vs NE 2.0%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 2.0%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 1.8%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 1.7%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 1.5%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 1.5%
Marshawn Lynch Reunion Special SEA vs OAK 1.4%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 1.2%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 1.2%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 1.1%
Hobnail Boot Bowl ATL vs TEN 0.9%
The Great '70s Super Bowl That Never Happened DAL vs OAK 0.9%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 0.9%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LARM vs NE 0.9%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.7%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 0.7%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.7%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 0.7%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.7%
DeMarco Murray Reunion Special DAL vs TEN 0.6%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.6%
Super Bowl L Rematch CAR vs DEN 0.5%
Angry Native American Activists Bowl WAS vs KC 0.4%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.4%
Super Bowl XVIIII Rematch WAS vs OAK 0.4%
2015 Draft Showdown TB vs TEN 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch ATL vs DEN 0.3%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.3%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 0.3%
The Super Bowl with the Dragon Tattoo NYG vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.3%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.2%
Ndamukong Suh Reunion Special DET vs MIA 0.2%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowl XXII Rematch WAS vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 0.1%
Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch WAS vs MIA 0.1%
Battle for Los Angeles LARM vs LACH 0.1%
Florida Bowl (South vs. Central) TB vs MIA 0.1%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 0.1%
Florida Bowl (North vs. Central) TB vs JAC 0.1%
Brandin Cooks Reunion Special NO vs NE 0.1%