AMERICA'S BEST-SELLING
PRO FOOTBALL BOOK!

PFP 2008

Click here for more info.

ROTOWORLD.COM
DRAFT GUIDE 2008

Rotoworld Draft Guide 2008

The perfect complement
to PFP 2008

Help with KUBIAK and Premium

KUBIAK UPDATE
8/27: ADDS KICK AND PUNT RETURN YARDAGE!
8/26: Changes PHI WR, NYG DT, SD DT
8/25: Changes ARI QB, ATL QB/WR/TE, HOU RB, MIA RB, NYG DL
Download here.

Get notified when new Outsider Ramblings are posted:


||

Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
Play texas holdem poker on Launchpoker.com


Baseball Prospectus Basketball Prospectus

TIGHT ENDS 2006

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 8/26/2008

Tight ends are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this TE caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level TE in the same game situations and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average TE in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

True Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more True Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer True Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. True Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.

DYAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch Rate represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.

  • We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
  • These statistics measure only passes thrown to the tight end, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
  • All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

The simple version: DYAR means a tight end with more total value. DVOA means a tight end with more value per play.

RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 44 players ranked

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
88-T.Gonzalez KC 233 1 236 1 28.7% 2 29.2% 104 900 1,052 5 70%
82-J.Witten DAL 154 2 166 2 20.6% 3 22.9% 91 754 798 2 70%
85-A.Gates SD 137 3 125 4 10.0% 11 8.4% 120 924 967 9 59%
80-K.Winslow CLE 118 4 111 5 7.9% 12 6.9% 120 875 914 3 76%
88-D.Clark CHI 117 5 135 3 14.4% 7 17.6% 80 626 712 8 56%
86-T.Heap BAL 92 6 91 6 5.0% 16 4.8% 116 765 833 6 63%
89-D.Campbell DET 81 7 79 7 30.2% 1 29.4% 32 308 359 4 66%
81-O.Daniels HOU 75 8 73 8 15.1% 6 14.5% 51 352 443 5 67%
81-R.McMichael MIA 70 9 62 10 4.8% 18 3.4% 96 640 644 4 66%
82-L.Smith PHI 64 10 71 9 5.7% 14 7.0% 80 611 559 5 63%
86-B.Utecht IND 60 11 60 11 12.0% 8 12.1% 53 377 393 0 70%
86-C.Baker NYJ 53 12 47 15 10.6% 9 8.4% 45 300 368 4 67%
82-R.Kelly CIN 51 13 42 17 15.7% 5 11.6% 33 254 296 1 64%
82-D.Graham NE 42 14 49 14 10.5% 10 13.5% 34 235 288 2 62%
83-H.Miller PIT 42 15 38 19 4.9% 17 3.9% 55 393 377 5 62%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
88-T.Scheffler DEN 39 16 50 13 7.5% 13 11.5% 37 286 308 4 49%
80-J.Shockey NYG 39 17 54 12 -1.8% 21 0.3% 115 623 680 7 57%
81-B.Fletcher IND 37 18 35 20 16.3% 4 15.2% 25 202 213 2 68%
83-A.Crumpler ATL 34 19 44 16 -2.4% 23 -1.0% 103 780 658 8 51%
47-C.Cooley WAS 27 20 42 18 -2.6% 24 -0.2% 95 734 553 7 57%
82-J.Klopfenstein STL 27 21 27 21 5.2% 15 5.3% 34 226 239 1 62%
82-S.Heiden CLE 24 22 27 22 0.7% 19 1.5% 46 249 306 2 80%
84-R.Royal BUF 20 23 19 23 0.7% 20 0.2% 39 233 255 3 59%
84-B.Watson NE 14 24 0 31 -4.9% 27 -7.2% 91 643 519 3 54%
87-D.Martin GB 13 25 11 25 -1.9% 22 -3.0% 36 198 240 2 58%
83-C.Anderson OAK 9 26 11 24 -3.7% 25 -2.9% 43 285 239 2 58%
44-D.Clark IND 9 27 2 28 -4.8% 26 -6.8% 57 367 336 4 53%
87-G.Wrighster JAC 5 28 1 29 -6.1% 28 -7.1% 63 353 347 3 63%
85-J.Wiggins MIN 4 29 8 26 -6.3% 29 -5.5% 67 390 368 1 70%
80-B.Scaife TEN -1 30 2 27 -7.5% 30 -6.6% 56 371 280 2 55%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
82-E.Johnson SF -3 31 -8 34 -8.3% 31 -9.9% 49 292 251 2 69%
83-D.Wilcox BAL -6 32 -5 32 -10.8% 32 -10.2% 27 166 142 3 74%
80-M.Campbell NO -9 33 1 30 -12.4% 33 -6.9% 29 164 132 0 62%
84-M.Gaines CAR -11 34 -7 33 -13.2% 34 -11.0% 28 146 132 0 57%
82-S.Alexander DEN -22 35 -26 37 -16.5% 35 -18.4% 35 160 150 3 51%
86-K.Mangum CAR -25 36 -19 35 -18.1% 36 -15.7% 33 170 137 1 64%
80-A.Fasano DAL -25 37 -22 36 -23.7% 39 -22.2% 24 126 73 0 58%
84-B.Troupe TEN -28 38 -30 38 -23.1% 37 -24.6% 29 150 87 3 45%
88-A.Becht TB -50 39 -52 41 -37.9% 44 -38.9% 26 115 29 1 69%
81-A.Smith TB -55 40 -61 42 -23.3% 38 -25.2% 53 250 168 3 66%
86-J.Stevens SEA -59 41 -51 40 -26.7% 41 -24.1% 48 231 127 4 48%
86-Ran.Williams OAK -61 42 -73 43 -25.0% 40 -28.6% 57 293 156 0 51%
85-V.Davis SF -61 43 -47 39 -30.4% 42 -25.1% 42 265 89 3 48%
88-B.Franks GB -87 44 -98 44 -33.8% 43 -37.2% 53 234 86 0 47%

RECEIVING, OTHERS: 10-24 passes

Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
86-D.Thomas NE 37 37 31.9% 31.3% 16 159 162 1 69%
86-B.Manumaleuna SD 30 27 21.2% 18.6% 17 91 152 3 82%
87-J.Peelle MIA 24 21 13.7% 11.1% 18 116 147 1 94%
87-M.Bruener HOU 22 21 27.0% 25.2% 10 62 104 2 90%
89-M.Schobel PHI 22 27 7.4% 10.3% 22 214 175 2 64%
89-M.Lewis JAC 20 15 6.9% 3.7% 21 126 160 2 62%
82-C.Fitzsimmons DET 14 12 15.7% 12.4% 10 71 84 0 70%
86-T.Stewart CIN 7 4 -1.9% -4.2% 18 120 118 1 78%
88-J.Putzier HOU 3 2 -4.7% -5.7% 22 125 120 0 59%
85-J.Madsen OAK 0 2 -6.9% -5.5% 19 146 94 1 58%
82-V.Shiancoe NYG -4 -7 -12.5% -15.3% 14 81 61 0 85%
82-L.Pope ARI -6 0 -11.0% -7.0% 23 161 115 0 70%
81-M.Pollard DET -7 -6 -13.2% -11.8% 17 100 87 0 71%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
85-E.Conwell NO -9 -5 -16.9% -13.2% 13 57 58 1 62%
85-J.Gilmore CHI -9 -10 -18.0% -18.7% 12 38 51 2 50%
89-J.Dunn KC -9 -11 -21.6% -24.5% 10 40 34 0 40%
86-D.Lee GB -14 -12 -16.9% -15.6% 21 150 90 0 48%
83-J.Dugan MIN -26 -23 -35.9% -31.9% 13 40 20 1 54%
82-G.Reid CHI -31 -26 -54.3% -46.5% 10 37 -12 0 40%
83-B.Miller NO -33 -27 -30.5% -26.2% 22 129 48 0 55%
85-D.Blakley ATL -40 -36 -46.5% -42.2% 14 76 -1 0 43%
88-I.Mili SEA -41 -34 -41.4% -35.9% 18 69 12 0 56%
40-J.Kleinsasser MIN -42 -43 -48.5% -49.2% 16 47 -6 0 44%
47-B.Hartsock TEN -44 -44 -50.6% -51.1% 15 68 -10 0 33%
89-A.Bergen ARI -55 -53 -43.8% -41.9% 24 111 7 1 63%

Any tight end rushing numbers are listed on the wide receiver page for that particular year.