Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, through Week 15

Revised as of 12/16/2014

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 DEN 33.2% 1 30.0% 2 11-3 23.4% 2 -13.6% 3 -3.7% 26
2 NE 27.2% 2 35.1% 1 11-3 16.6% 4 -5.3% 9 5.3% 5
3 SEA 25.4% 3 23.1% 4 10-4 14.8% 6 -11.9% 4 -1.3% 18
4 BAL 25.1% 5 28.6% 3 9-5 14.6% 7 -3.0% 12 7.5% 2
5 GB 21.7% 4 22.2% 5 10-4 24.5% 1 0.7% 17 -2.1% 21
6 KC 13.2% 8 19.9% 6 8-6 8.2% 11 1.4% 18 6.3% 4
7 PHI 12.3% 7 14.9% 7 9-5 -2.2% 16 -5.4% 8 9.0% 1
8 BUF 11.5% 10 14.0% 8 8-6 -11.9% 26 -16.6% 1 6.8% 3
9 PIT 9.0% 12 10.4% 9 9-5 22.3% 3 13.1% 31 -0.2% 15
10 IND 9.0% 11 8.9% 11 10-4 2.7% 13 -2.1% 13 4.1% 7
11 MIA 8.3% 6 7.0% 13 7-7 7.0% 12 -4.9% 10 -3.6% 25
12 DET 6.9% 9 4.3% 14 10-4 -3.9% 17 -15.6% 2 -4.8% 30
13 DAL 6.7% 13 8.9% 10 10-4 14.9% 5 9.2% 26 1.0% 11
14 SD 3.9% 15 3.6% 16 8-6 10.0% 10 4.4% 23 -1.7% 19
15 CIN 3.7% 16 -1.9% 19 9-4-1 -1.7% 15 -0.2% 15 5.2% 6
16 SF 2.3% 14 1.1% 17 7-7 -5.2% 19 -11.6% 5 -4.1% 29
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 NO 2.2% 18 3.8% 15 6-8 14.3% 8 12.7% 30 0.6% 13
18 ARI -1.1% 20 -1.5% 18 11-3 -10.1% 23 -11.5% 6 -2.5% 23
19 STL -1.5% 17 7.2% 12 6-8 -10.6% 24 -6.2% 7 2.9% 9
20 ATL -2.6% 19 -6.7% 23 5-9 11.3% 9 17.4% 32 3.4% 8
21 HOU -7.3% 22 -3.7% 20 7-7 -4.3% 18 -0.8% 14 -3.8% 27
22 CLE -7.4% 21 -11.3% 24 7-7 -10.6% 25 -3.2% 11 0.0% 14
23 NYG -7.4% 24 -5.3% 21 5-9 -6.3% 20 1.9% 20 0.7% 12
24 MIN -9.3% 23 -5.7% 22 6-8 -8.8% 22 2.2% 21 1.7% 10
25 CHI -13.9% 25 -22.9% 27 5-9 1.1% 14 11.7% 29 -3.3% 24
26 CAR -14.5% 26 -16.7% 25 5-8-1 -7.1% 21 1.7% 19 -5.7% 31
27 NYJ -20.2% 27 -22.3% 26 3-11 -14.4% 28 4.7% 24 -1.2% 17
28 OAK -27.1% 28 -28.2% 30 2-12 -20.6% 30 5.4% 25 -1.0% 16
29 WAS -27.5% 29 -36.4% 32 3-11 -12.2% 27 9.3% 27 -6.0% 32
30 TEN -30.1% 32 -35.9% 31 2-12 -17.1% 29 11.0% 28 -2.0% 20
31 JAC -30.5% 30 -26.1% 29 2-12 -26.3% 32 0.1% 16 -4.0% 28
32 TB -31.1% 31 -24.6% 28 2-12 -25.0% 31 3.7% 22 -2.3% 22
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 DEN 33.2% 11-3 30.2% 12.3 1 4.9% 4 -11.7% 26 8.6% 6
2 NE 27.2% 11-3 22.9% 9.8 4 3.5% 6 -4.4% 20 17.7% 19
3 SEA 25.4% 10-4 21.4% 10.2 3 1.2% 13 -1.3% 17 13.7% 12
4 BAL 25.1% 9-5 28.8% 10.5 2 -4.8% 28 -7.3% 23 8.2% 5
5 GB 21.7% 10-4 22.4% 9.2 5 0.7% 14 -12.1% 28 12.5% 10
6 KC 13.2% 8-6 11.4% 8.5 7 2.7% 9 6.5% 10 21.8% 28
7 PHI 12.3% 9-5 10.1% 8.5 6 -3.4% 25 -17.5% 31 15.8% 16
8 BUF 11.5% 8-6 9.3% 8.4 8 3.2% 7 0.1% 15 5.2% 2
9 PIT 9.0% 9-5 9.8% 7.8 13 -6.1% 31 8.5% 8 15.0% 13
10 IND 9.0% 10-4 11.6% 8.2 11 -2.7% 21 -11.7% 27 10.3% 7
11 MIA 8.3% 7-7 9.1% 8.3 9 6.4% 2 -14.8% 29 18.4% 21
12 DET 6.9% 10-4 11.0% 8.0 12 -2.8% 22 3.9% 13 7.5% 4
13 DAL 6.7% 10-4 8.8% 8.2 10 -5.1% 30 -9.3% 24 18.6% 22
14 SD 3.9% 8-6 2.8% 7.6 14 5.0% 3 7.8% 9 16.1% 18
15 CIN 3.7% 9-4-1 5.4% 7.6 15 -2.4% 20 21.1% 2 23.9% 31
16 SF 2.3% 7-7 -1.6% 7.1 17 2.8% 8 1.4% 14 15.1% 15
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
17 NO 2.2% 6-8 0.4% 7.0 18 -1.3% 18 -16.8% 30 22.4% 29
18 ARI -1.1% 11-3 1.3% 7.3 16 2.6% 10 13.9% 4 6.7% 3
19 STL -1.5% 6-8 -1.4% 5.9 22 0.2% 16 9.0% 7 29.8% 32
20 ATL -2.6% 5-9 0.2% 6.4 19 -3.4% 24 -6.1% 22 12.4% 9
21 HOU -7.3% 7-7 2.4% 5.5 26 -7.1% 32 -2.7% 18 5.0% 1
22 CLE -7.4% 7-7 -2.3% 6.4 20 -3.9% 26 5.3% 12 21.2% 26
23 NYG -7.4% 5-9 -9.9% 5.8 25 -4.1% 27 5.4% 11 18.8% 23
24 MIN -9.3% 6-8 -7.7% 6.3 21 -0.9% 17 -2.8% 19 12.7% 11
25 CHI -13.9% 5-9 -17.4% 5.8 24 2.2% 11 -1.2% 16 10.5% 8
26 CAR -14.5% 5-8-1 -16.8% 5.9 23 1.5% 12 -5.0% 21 15.0% 14
27 NYJ -20.2% 3-11 -23.3% 4.6 27 4.7% 5 17.8% 3 15.8% 17
28 OAK -27.1% 2-12 -35.1% 4.0 28 6.7% 1 22.4% 1 19.1% 24
29 WAS -27.5% 3-11 -23.9% 3.5 30 -5.0% 29 9.5% 6 23.7% 30
30 TEN -30.1% 2-12 -25.8% 3.6 29 -2.0% 19 -10.7% 25 21.3% 27
31 JAC -30.5% 2-12 -28.7% 2.4 32 0.5% 15 -18.7% 32 18.4% 20
32 TB -31.1% 2-12 -24.9% 3.3 31 -3.3% 23 11.9% 5 20.0% 25