Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, through Week 7

Revised as of 10/21/2014

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Opponent adjustments are currently at 70 percent strength and will increase gradually each week until after Week 10.

DAVE is our formula that combines in-season performance with preseason projections early in the season to get a more accurate look at how good teams are likely to be long-term. The projection is currently 19 percent of DAVE for teams with six games played and 8.5 percent of DAVE for teams with seven games played.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 DEN 48.7% 1 44.2% 1 5-1 31.4% 1 -18.2% 2 -0.9% 20
2 BAL 28.5% 2 26.1% 2 5-2 16.2% 4 -8.8% 6 3.5% 8
3 GB 26.1% 4 25.6% 3 5-2 19.9% 2 -4.4% 10 1.8% 14
4 SEA 22.7% 3 21.0% 4 3-3 15.5% 6 -8.1% 7 -0.9% 21
5 IND 19.4% 13 18.1% 5 5-2 8.7% 8 -5.6% 9 5.1% 4
6 PHI 14.5% 6 12.6% 7 5-1 -2.9% 18 -6.3% 8 11.1% 1
7 DAL 13.7% 10 12.2% 8 6-1 16.5% 3 1.3% 19 -1.6% 22
8 SD 13.2% 8 13.2% 6 5-2 15.7% 5 4.7% 23 2.1% 11
9 KC 9.9% 14 7.2% 9 3-3 6.6% 10 -1.4% 14 2.0% 13
10 MIA 6.8% 17 4.8% 11 3-3 5.6% 11 -11.1% 3 -9.9% 32
11 NE 5.7% 11 6.2% 10 5-2 1.8% 16 0.1% 16 3.9% 6
12 DET 5.2% 7 4.0% 12 5-2 -11.3% 26 -24.9% 1 -8.4% 31
13 CIN 2.7% 5 2.2% 13 3-2-1 1.9% 15 1.7% 20 2.5% 10
14 PIT 2.2% 20 2.0% 14 4-3 5.6% 12 7.4% 26 4.0% 5
15 ARI 0.6% 19 -0.5% 15 5-1 -11.2% 25 -10.0% 5 1.8% 15
16 BUF -0.4% 18 -1.0% 16 4-3 -16.5% 29 -10.5% 4 5.5% 3
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 CLE -0.9% 9 -3.4% 20 3-3 5.4% 13 5.8% 25 -0.5% 18
18 ATL -1.8% 12 -2.6% 19 2-5 7.6% 9 16.0% 31 6.6% 2
19 CHI -1.9% 16 -1.4% 17 3-4 1.5% 17 -1.8% 12 -5.2% 28
20 SF -4.5% 15 -3.4% 21 4-3 -3.2% 21 -3.4% 11 -4.7% 27
21 NO -4.6% 25 -1.5% 18 2-4 11.8% 7 17.7% 32 1.3% 16
22 NYG -5.6% 21 -5.3% 22 3-4 -2.9% 19 1.0% 18 -1.7% 23
23 HOU -9.2% 24 -9.1% 23 3-4 -4.9% 23 -0.3% 15 -4.7% 26
24 WAS -10.3% 23 -10.7% 24 2-5 -3.0% 20 0.3% 17 -7.1% 29
25 CAR -12.4% 22 -11.4% 25 3-3-1 2.3% 14 14.0% 29 -0.7% 19
26 TEN -14.1% 26 -13.3% 27 2-5 -5.2% 24 5.3% 24 -3.6% 25
27 NYJ -14.7% 28 -13.7% 28 1-6 -16.2% 28 2.3% 21 3.9% 7
28 STL -15.7% 27 -12.9% 26 2-4 -4.6% 22 12.2% 28 1.1% 17
29 OAK -22.3% 29 -21.4% 29 0-6 -16.0% 27 8.4% 27 2.0% 12
30 MIN -29.2% 30 -23.7% 30 2-5 -29.8% 32 2.8% 22 3.3% 9
31 JAC -29.8% 31 -27.9% 31 1-6 -28.7% 31 -1.4% 13 -2.4% 24
32 TB -49.0% 32 -39.3% 32 1-5 -25.8% 30 15.0% 30 -8.2% 30
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 DEN 48.7% 5-1 46.2% 6.6 1 5.6% 6 -0.9% 15 7.9% 6
2 BAL 28.5% 5-2 33.1% 4.6 5 -5.7% 26 -3.7% 22 9.4% 8
3 GB 26.1% 5-2 26.3% 5.2 2 -3.4% 22 -6.8% 32 11.2% 11
4 SEA 22.7% 3-3 11.9% 4.5 7 12.6% 1 -3.9% 23 20.4% 23
5 IND 19.4% 5-2 19.5% 5.1 3 5.9% 5 -5.4% 28 14.9% 16
6 PHI 14.5% 5-1 14.7% 4.7 4 -7.8% 29 2.5% 9 11.3% 12
7 DAL 13.7% 6-1 12.6% 4.6 6 -4.4% 23 -1.0% 16 17.8% 20
8 SD 13.2% 5-2 24.6% 4.4 8 -4.9% 24 11.8% 2 6.3% 4
9 KC 9.9% 3-3 6.6% 4.3 9 9.3% 4 1.2% 11 26.1% 27
10 MIA 6.8% 3-3 13.2% 4.2 10 2.9% 10 1.2% 10 10.1% 9
11 NE 5.7% 5-2 12.8% 3.4 19 -6.8% 28 11.4% 3 19.0% 21
12 DET 5.2% 5-2 15.3% 3.7 11 -5.8% 27 -4.9% 26 12.1% 13
13 CIN 2.7% 3-2-1 2.4% 3.5 15 4.2% 7 -1.3% 17 26.4% 29
14 PIT 2.2% 4-3 6.0% 3.5 16 -10.5% 32 3.1% 8 14.5% 15
15 ARI 0.6% 5-1 2.3% 3.5 13 3.2% 9 5.1% 5 5.8% 3
16 BUF -0.4% 4-3 0.0% 3.2 22 -1.4% 19 5.0% 6 7.2% 5
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
17 CLE -0.9% 3-3 3.6% 3.6 12 -2.6% 20 -4.2% 24 12.2% 14
18 ATL -1.8% 2-5 2.7% 3.4 17 -8.5% 30 -5.0% 27 26.1% 28
19 CHI -1.9% 3-4 -3.0% 3.5 14 -0.1% 16 -6.2% 31 10.1% 10
20 SF -4.5% 4-3 -5.1% 3.2 21 10.0% 3 0.1% 12 15.4% 17
21 NO -4.6% 2-4 0.0% 2.7 23 -10.3% 31 -2.2% 19 15.5% 18
22 NYG -5.6% 3-4 -10.1% 3.2 20 1.8% 13 -0.5% 14 31.1% 31
23 HOU -9.2% 3-4 -8.1% 2.4 27 -0.5% 17 -2.6% 20 1.6% 1
24 WAS -10.3% 2-5 -12.3% 2.6 26 -3.0% 21 -4.8% 25 21.8% 24
25 CAR -12.4% 3-3-1 -15.0% 3.4 18 2.0% 12 -6.1% 30 15.6% 19
26 TEN -14.1% 2-5 -9.3% 2.6 25 0.7% 14 -0.4% 13 21.9% 25
27 NYJ -14.7% 1-6 -16.0% 2.7 24 10.7% 2 -1.4% 18 8.7% 7
28 STL -15.7% 2-4 -11.7% 2.3 28 -5.3% 25 5.3% 4 19.7% 22
29 OAK -22.3% 0-6 -24.9% 1.7 30 0.4% 15 13.2% 1 4.2% 2
30 MIN -29.2% 2-5 -27.3% 2.1 29 2.1% 11 -5.8% 29 22.9% 26
31 JAC -29.8% 1-6 -26.0% 1.7 31 3.4% 8 3.7% 7 27.1% 30
32 TB -49.0% 1-5 -43.6% 1.5 32 -0.6% 18 -2.7% 21 36.3% 32