Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

1987 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, playoffs and strike games not included

Revised as of 3/8/2017

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 1987, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

Official 1987 Football Outsiders stats do not include Week 4-6 strikebreaker games. Those games are listed separately in another table at the bottom of the page, without any opponent adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 SF 47.2% 45.2% 10-2 23.3% 1 -22.4% 1 1.5% 10
2 NO 27.1% 26.0% 10-2 7.8% 6 -10.5% 6 8.8% 1
3 CLE1 24.4% 24.8% 8-4 22.7% 3 -4.9% 12 -3.1% 23
4 DEN 18.1% 19.8% 8-3-1 11.5% 5 -4.8% 13 1.8% 7
5 CHI 17.0% 7.1% 9-3 5.2% 10 -6.3% 11 5.5% 3
6 IND 9.6% 14.3% 7-5 -4.1% 14 -8.5% 9 5.1% 4
7 NYG 8.2% 2.8% 6-6 -6.8% 21 -20.8% 2 -5.7% 28
8 BUF 8.0% 5.8% 6-6 4.3% 11 -2.5% 14 1.1% 11
9 LARD 7.9% 8.2% 4-8 0.2% 13 -8.6% 8 -0.8% 16
10 WAS 6.9% 6.2% 8-4 7.6% 7 -0.6% 15 -1.3% 18
11 PHI 4.6% 3.9% 7-5 -4.3% 17 -12.0% 5 -3.1% 22
12 MIN 1.4% 10.5% 8-4 -4.2% 15 -8.9% 7 -3.4% 25
13 STLC 1.2% 3.4% 6-6 12.1% 4 11.2% 21 0.3% 13
14 DAL 0.1% 2.4% 5-7 -4.5% 18 0.5% 17 5.1% 5
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
15 NE -1.8% -6.0% 6-6 -9.7% 23 -12.5% 3 -4.7% 27
16 NYJ -1.9% -7.2% 5-7 3.3% 12 11.5% 22 6.4% 2
17 MIA -2.8% -3.6% 7-5 23.1% 2 24.4% 28 -1.5% 19
18 CIN -3.2% -3.9% 3-9 7.6% 8 10.5% 20 -0.3% 14
19 HOIL -5.0% -3.6% 7-5 -5.2% 20 0.3% 16 0.5% 12
20 LARM -6.7% -9.1% 5-7 -4.3% 16 3.9% 19 1.5% 9
21 PIT -7.1% -8.3% 6-6 -21.3% 27 -12.3% 4 1.8% 8
22 GB -7.3% -13.8% 3-8-1 -11.9% 24 -7.9% 10 -3.3% 24
23 SEA -9.6% -7.2% 7-5 6.0% 9 13.8% 25 -1.8% 20
24 KC -12.8% -9.0% 4-8 -4.7% 19 12.0% 24 3.8% 6
25 SD -19.6% -22.1% 5-7 -12.0% 25 3.1% 18 -4.5% 26
26 DET -26.1% -20.9% 3-9 -13.3% 26 11.6% 23 -1.1% 17
27 TB -28.6% -30.7% 2-10 -9.2% 22 16.9% 26 -2.5% 21
28 ATL -45.7% -45.9% 2-10 -27.8% 28 17.6% 27 -0.4% 15
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. In 1987, this number is based on a 12-game season.
  • WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
  • 1987 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#28, most negative).
  • PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed. In 1987, this number is based on a 12-game season.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#28, highest variance).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L ESTIM.
WINS
RANK WEI.
DVOA
RANK 1987
SCHED
RANK PYTH
WINS
RANK VAR. RANK
1 SF 47.2% 10-2 11.3 1 54.4% 1 -1.2% 18 10.0 1 15.1% 18
2 NO 27.1% 10-2 9.8 2 27.2% 2 2.3% 12 8.8 3 10.9% 10
3 CLE1 24.4% 8-4 8.5 3 24.3% 3 -0.8% 17 8.9 2 10.2% 9
4 DEN 18.1% 8-3-1 7.8 5 18.8% 4 -6.0% 26 8.5 4 9.1% 7
5 CHI 17.0% 9-3 7.9 4 12.0% 7 -3.1% 20 6.7 9 21.9% 24
6 IND 9.6% 7-5 7.6 6 15.1% 5 -4.6% 22 6.9 8 33.0% 28
7 NYG 8.2% 6-6 6.7 8 13.7% 6 3.7% 7 6.5 10 8.8% 4
8 BUF 8.0% 6-6 6.0 12 11.2% 8 4.6% 5 6.3 14 29.0% 26
9 LARD 7.9% 4-8 7.1 7 5.8% 9 -1.5% 19 6.5 11 8.5% 3
10 WAS 6.9% 8-4 6.4 10 5.4% 10 -4.6% 23 7.5 5 13.1% 16
11 PHI 4.6% 7-5 6.0 13 2.7% 12 5.1% 3 6.4 13 12.2% 13
12 MIN 1.4% 8-4 6.7 9 2.3% 14 -8.3% 28 7.0 6 4.9% 1
13 STLC 1.2% 6-6 5.6 17 3.2% 11 -8.0% 27 6.1 15 9.6% 8
14 DAL 0.1% 5-7 5.6 16 2.5% 13 -4.9% 24 5.0 20 12.0% 12
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L ESTIM.
WINS
RANK WEI.
DVOA
RANK 1987
SCHED
RANK PYTH
WINS
RANK VAR. RANK
15 NE -1.8% 6-6 5.3 18 1.7% 15 4.7% 4 6.4 12 11.0% 11
16 NYJ -1.9% 5-7 6.1 11 -5.3% 18 1.1% 15 5.7 17 8.8% 5
17 MIA -2.8% 7-5 6.0 14 -5.5% 19 2.6% 11 5.9 16 23.0% 25
18 CIN -3.2% 3-9 5.8 15 -9.5% 22 1.7% 14 4.5 23 6.6% 2
19 HOIL -5.0% 7-5 5.2 19 -8.6% 21 2.0% 13 5.4 19 29.6% 27
20 LARM -6.7% 5-7 5.0 21 -5.2% 16 4.2% 6 5.4 18 12.9% 15
21 PIT -7.1% 6-6 5.1 20 -6.4% 20 5.2% 2 5.0 21 20.9% 23
22 GB -7.3% 3-8-1 4.7 23 -5.2% 17 5.6% 1 4.3 24 8.9% 6
23 SEA -9.6% 7-5 4.7 22 -12.5% 24 0.7% 16 7.0 7 16.9% 20
24 KC -12.8% 4-8 4.4 24 -9.6% 23 -5.1% 25 4.7 22 14.4% 17
25 SD -19.6% 5-7 4.2 25 -21.3% 25 3.5% 8 3.8 25 15.9% 19
26 DET -26.1% 3-9 2.6 26 -25.7% 26 -4.0% 21 3.5 27 12.2% 14
27 TB -28.6% 2-10 2.4 27 -32.6% 27 3.0% 10 3.7 26 17.8% 22
28 ATL -45.7% 2-10 1.9 28 -44.3% 28 3.2% 9 1.3 28 17.5% 21

 

1987 STRIKEBREAKER GAMES: WEEKS 4-6

Revised as of 3/8/2017

OFFENSE and DEFENSE VOA are not adjusted for opponents but do consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Normalization for 1987 strikebreaker games uses the regular baselines from 1987, so the league average is below 0% for all three units as well as total VOA.

REGULAR GAMES RANK lists the team's Total DVOA rank during Weeks 1-2 and 7-16, from the table above.

TEAM TOTAL
VOA
REG.
GAMES
RANK
W-L OFFENSE
VOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
VOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 SF 38.6% 1 3-0 38.1% 1 -15.0% 12 -14.5% 24
2 IND 29.0% 6 2-1 -1.9% 10 -39.9% 4 -9.0% 17
3 CLE1 26.5% 3 2-1 -11.4% 15 -42.9% 1 -5.0% 11
4 DAL 26.1% 14 2-1 13.5% 2 -18.4% 10 -5.9% 14
5 NO 23.7% 2 2-1 -0.8% 8 -40.4% 3 -15.9% 25
6 WAS 22.7% 10 3-0 11.0% 3 -11.0% 16 0.7% 5
7 CHI 19.1% 5 2-1 -18.4% 17 -41.0% 2 -3.5% 8
8 HOIL 17.8% 19 2-1 -9.4% 14 -18.8% 9 8.3% 1
9 PIT 13.2% 21 2-1 -0.3% 7 -24.7% 6 -11.2% 20
10 MIA 12.0% 17 1-2 3.2% 5 -5.7% 19 3.1% 3
11 SD 6.4% 25 3-0 -7.2% 13 -21.4% 7 -7.7% 16
12 GB 3.0% 22 2-1 -14.2% 16 -14.1% 13 3.2% 2
13 DEN 1.0% 4 2-1 0.6% 6 -13.9% 15 -13.5% 22
14 TB -5.7% 27 2-1 -37.6% 24 -32.9% 5 -1.1% 7
TEAM TOTAL
VOA
REG.
GAMES
RANK
W-L OFFENSE
VOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
VOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
15 LARD -6.8% 9 1-2 -1.1% 9 1.1% 23 -4.6% 10
16 LARM -15.4% 20 1-2 -4.1% 12 -2.8% 21 -14.1% 23
17 NYJ -17.3% 16 1-2 -26.0% 19 -14.0% 14 -5.4% 12
18 NE -19.2% 15 2-1 -19.8% 18 -20.0% 8 -19.4% 27
19 SEA -20.6% 23 2-1 -3.6% 11 10.7% 25 -6.4% 15
20 CIN -24.5% 18 1-2 -29.2% 21 -10.3% 17 -5.6% 13
21 DET -29.6% 26 1-2 -36.1% 23 -17.0% 11 -10.4% 19
22 STLC -33.4% 13 1-2 3.7% 4 27.0% 27 -10.1% 18
23 ATL -47.3% 28 1-2 -39.0% 25 8.8% 24 0.6% 6
24 MIN -55.6% 12 0-3 -44.4% 26 -6.4% 18 -17.6% 26
25 KC -57.9% 24 0-3 -26.9% 20 32.9% 28 1.9% 4
26 BUF -61.4% 8 1-2 -61.4% 28 -4.1% 20 -4.0% 9
27 PHI -66.8% 11 0-3 -35.3% 22 19.6% 26 -11.9% 21
28 NYG -67.2% 7 0-3 -45.3% 27 -1.6% 22 -23.5% 28