Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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2006 Team Efficiency Ratings

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 8/8/2008

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league averaged based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 2005 rank.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
YEAR 		NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
1 BAL 31.8% 19 35.1% 13-3 2.6% 15 -25.8% 1 3.5% 4
2 SD 29.9% 6 36.0% 14-2 24.0% 2 -1.5% 14 4.4% 3
3 PHI 24.3% 18 20.2% 10-6 19.8% 3 -6.4% 11 -1.9% 22
4 CHI 24.0% 14 30.4% 13-3 -4.2% 18 -20.6% 2 7.6% 1
5 NE 23.2% 12 25.9% 12-4 12.3% 6 -8.4% 9 2.5% 8
6 JAC 22.0% 10 19.2% 8-8 4.3% 12 -17.9% 3 -0.2% 19
7 IND 19.5% 1 16.9% 12-4 33.7% 1 11.3% 27 -2.9% 25
8 NYG 11.1% 8 7.3% 8-8 8.6% 9 -2.1% 13 0.4% 16
9 NO 11.0% 30 12.0% 10-6 13.4% 5 3.2% 19 0.7% 14
10 DAL 9.7% 15 10.3% 9-7 9.9% 8 -0.1% 16 -0.2% 20
11 CIN 8.8% 9 5.6% 8-8 14.6% 4 7.1% 25 1.3% 12
12 PIT 7.5% 3 4.0% 8-8 5.2% 10 -6.5% 10 -4.2% 30
13 KC 3.4% 4 3.8% 9-7 4.8% 11 2.8% 18 1.3% 13
14 CAR 2.9% 11 1.1% 8-8 -4.3% 19 -10.0% 5 -2.8% 24
15 GB -0.6% 23 -2.8% 8-8 -5.9% 20 -9.3% 6 -3.9% 29
16 BUF -2.1% 28 -8.1% 7-9 -8.7% 24 -0.7% 15 5.9% 2
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
YEAR 		NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
17 MIA -3.9% 13 -0.6% 6-10 -12.2% 28 -8.9% 7 -0.7% 21
18 DEN -3.9% 2 -3.1% 9-7 -8.3% 23 -3.7% 12 0.7% 15
19 NYJ -4.3% 27 -1.7% 10-6 2.8% 14 10.3% 26 3.2% 5
20 STL -5.0% 29 3.7% 8-8 12.3% 7 12.9% 29 -4.4% 31
21 ATL -8.3% 17 -3.4% 7-9 -2.1% 16 2.4% 17 -3.8% 28
22 MIN -9.0% 21 -5.2% 6-10 -15.9% 29 -10.6% 4 -3.6% 27
23 WAS -11.6% 7 -15.0% 5-11 4.2% 13 17.6% 32 1.7% 11
24 TEN -13.0% 25 -16.1% 8-8 -9.3% 26 6.2% 24 2.4% 9
25 SEA -13.1% 5 -9.3% 9-7 -11.7% 27 4.1% 20 2.6% 7
26 ARI -17.6% 22 -10.7% 5-11 -7.5% 21 5.4% 23 -4.8% 32
27 SF -19.8% 32 -19.9% 7-9 -7.8% 22 12.1% 28 0.1% 18
28 HOU -20.1% 31 -18.8% 6-10 -2.5% 17 15.5% 31 -2.1% 23
29 DET -20.6% 26 -20.5% 3-13 -9.2% 25 14.2% 30 2.8% 6
30 CLE -21.3% 24 -25.9% 4-12 -18.5% 31 5.0% 21 2.3% 10
31 TB -23.0% 16 -29.5% 4-12 -18.0% 30 5.1% 22 0.1% 17
32 OAK -30.0% 20 -36.1% 2-14 -35.6% 32 -8.6% 8 -3.0% 26

  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close.  It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.  It is based on the number of games a team has played so far, so teams which have not had their bye will appear higher.
  • WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.
  • 2006 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
  • PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent the number of wins projected from the team's points scored and allowed, as described in this article.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance.  Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, Minnesota) to least consistent (#32, Jacksonville).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK 2006
SCHED 		RANK PYTH
WINS 		RANK VAR. RANK
1 BAL 31.8% 13-3 12.0 2 36.0% 1 -2.7% 26 12.7 1 17.5% 17
2 SD 29.9% 14-2 12.0 1 25.7% 3 -6.6% 30 12.1 4 9.2% 4
3 PHI 24.3% 10-6 11.6 3 17.4% 6 -0.7% 18 9.8 8 13.9% 12
4 CHI 24.0% 13-3 10.8 5 12.2% 7 -7.2% 31 12.4 2 29.9% 31
5 NE 23.2% 12-4 11.0 4 27.4% 2 -0.9% 20 12.2 3 19.7% 25
6 JAC 22.0% 8-8 9.6 7 19.2% 5 1.9% 11 10.8 5 32.1% 32
7 IND 19.5% 12-4 10.6 6 21.8% 4 1.8% 12 9.6 9 18.2% 22
8 NYG 11.1% 8-8 9.0 9 5.9% 14 2.9% 8 7.8 16 13.0% 9
9 NO 11.0% 10-6 9.1 8 11.4% 8 -1.0% 22 10.3 6 17.7% 19
10 DAL 9.7% 9-7 8.6 11 7.8% 10 0.0% 17 9.8 7 18.6% 23
11 CIN 8.8% 8-8 8.6 10 7.7% 11 3.8% 5 9.1 10 10.2% 7
12 PIT 7.5% 8-8 8.5 12 8.5% 9 2.4% 10 9.1 11 18.6% 24
13 KC 3.4% 9-7 8.4 13 1.4% 16 -1.2% 24 8.5 13 20.6% 28
14 CAR 2.9% 8-8 7.9 14 7.5% 12 0.4% 14 6.9 21 14.4% 13
15 GB -0.6% 8-8 7.7 17 6.5% 13 -1.2% 23 6.2 23 24.4% 30
16 BUF -2.1% 7-9 7.9 16 0.9% 17 5.9% 2 7.7 17 16.5% 16
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK 2006
SCHED 		RANK PYTH
WINS 		RANK VAR. RANK
17 MIA -3.9% 6-10 7.1 21 0.2% 19 2.9% 9 7.2 19 13.9% 11
18 DEN -3.9% 9-7 7.0 22 -10.2% 21 1.3% 13 8.4 14 17.8% 20
19 NYJ -4.3% 10-6 7.7 18 0.9% 18 -0.9% 21 8.7 12 16.2% 15
20 STL -5.0% 8-8 7.4 20 -11.4% 23 -7.3% 32 7.6 18 17.6% 18
21 ATL -8.3% 7-9 7.4 19 -11.5% 24 0.2% 16 6.9 20 19.7% 26
22 MIN -9.0% 6-10 7.9 15 -11.1% 22 -2.9% 27 6.6 22 8.2% 1
23 WAS -11.6% 5-11 6.8 23 -16.5% 27 4.2% 4 6.1 24 10.2% 6
24 TEN -13.0% 8-8 6.8 24 2.4% 15 9.4% 1 6.0 25 17.9% 21
25 SEA -13.1% 9-7 6.3 25 -13.9% 26 -6.5% 29 7.8 15 11.3% 8
26 ARI -17.6% 5-11 6.2 27 -7.0% 20 -5.1% 28 6.0 26 20.5% 27
27 SF -19.8% 7-9 6.2 26 -17.3% 28 -2.7% 25 5.1 29 21.3% 29
28 HOU -20.1% 6-10 5.8 28 -13.5% 25 3.3% 7 5.1 28 14.7% 14
29 DET -20.6% 3-13 5.6 29 -17.6% 29 -0.8% 19 5.6 27 8.4% 2
30 CLE -21.3% 4-12 4.8 31 -25.7% 32 3.4% 6 4.4 30 13.8% 10
31 TB -23.0% 4-12 5.1 30 -23.0% 30 4.6% 3 3.6 31 8.5% 3
32 OAK -30.0% 2-14 3.9 32 -25.4% 31 0.3% 15 2.7 32 10.1% 5

DVOA version: 5.0