Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2011 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 7/11/2012

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2011, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 2010 rank.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
YEAR
NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 GB 27.0% 4 27.4% 15-1 33.8% 1 8.6% 25 1.8% 8
2 NO 23.8% 10 25.5% 13-3 33.0% 2 10.2% 28 1.0% 12
3 NE 22.8% 1 24.3% 13-3 31.9% 3 13.2% 30 4.1% 5
4 PIT 22.6% 2 22.9% 12-4 11.4% 6 -9.4% 7 1.7% 9
5 HOU 18.6% 13 24.8% 10-6 8.4% 9 -9.5% 6 0.7% 13
6 SF 18.6% 24 22.1% 13-3 -3.9% 18 -14.6% 3 7.8% 2
7 BAL 14.5% 5 13.9% 12-4 2.9% 13 -17.1% 1 -5.6% 30
8 ATL 13.9% 7 12.8% 10-6 6.1% 11 -9.1% 8 -1.3% 22
9 PHI 13.5% 3 13.4% 8-8 9.8% 8 -3.7% 11 0.0% 17
10 NYJ 13.5% 6 11.8% 8-8 -8.3% 21 -16.1% 2 5.6% 4
11 DET 10.1% 18 12.9% 10-6 7.1% 10 -8.1% 9 -5.1% 29
12 NYG 8.5% 9 4.1% 9-7 10.5% 7 2.4% 19 0.3% 15
13 TEN 6.6% 11 10.9% 9-7 0.6% 15 0.3% 15 6.3% 3
14 DAL 3.5% 23 5.7% 8-8 5.9% 12 0.4% 16 -2.1% 25
15 CHI 1.3% 14 1.4% 8-8 -21.4% 30 -14.2% 4 8.5% 1
16 SD 0.7% 8 4.7% 8-8 13.0% 5 10.8% 29 -1.6% 23
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
YEAR
NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 CIN 0.1% 19 3.8% 9-7 -1.4% 17 0.8% 17 2.3% 7
18 MIA -1.3% 15 -3.1% 6-10 -7.5% 20 -3.7% 12 2.5% 6
19 SEA -1.5% 30 -1.7% 7-9 -8.7% 22 -7.1% 10 0.2% 16
20 CAR -4.1% 31 -4.7% 6-10 18.2% 4 15.8% 32 -6.5% 32
21 WAS -7.0% 28 -14.6% 5-11 -7.0% 19 -1.2% 14 -1.2% 21
22 OAK -8.0% 21 -4.3% 8-8 2.6% 14 9.6% 27 -1.0% 20
23 BUF -9.7% 29 -9.4% 6-10 0.3% 16 8.3% 24 -1.7% 24
24 DEN -11.8% 26 -9.7% 8-8 -9.9% 23 1.6% 18 -0.2% 18
25 CLE -14.2% 20 -10.5% 4-12 -11.2% 25 4.2% 22 1.3% 10
26 KC -16.9% 17 -18.7% 7-9 -19.3% 29 -3.2% 13 -0.9% 19
27 JAC -17.4% 22 -15.2% 5-11 -26.5% 31 -11.3% 5 -2.2% 26
28 ARI -19.7% 32 -15.4% 8-8 -18.4% 28 2.4% 20 1.2% 11
29 MIN -22.2% 25 -22.3% 3-13 -10.2% 24 8.0% 23 -4.1% 27
30 TB -25.1% 12 -31.3% 4-12 -11.5% 26 14.2% 31 0.6% 14
31 IND -32.8% 16 -36.1% 2-14 -17.2% 27 9.3% 26 -6.2% 31
32 STL -35.4% 27 -42.2% 2-14 -27.2% 32 3.4% 21 -4.8% 28
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
  • WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
  • 2011 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
  • PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L ESTIM.
WINS
RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK 2011
SCHED
RANK PYTH
WINS
RANK VAR. RANK
1 GB 27.0% 15-1 13.3 1 24.8% 4 -4.8% 31 12.2 3 6.7% 3
2 NO 23.8% 13-3 12.0 3 30.0% 1 -4.1% 30 12.4 1 14.1% 17
3 NE 22.8% 13-3 12.2 2 25.3% 3 -1.4% 23 11.9 4 8.6% 6
4 PIT 22.6% 12-4 11.3 4 28.7% 2 -3.5% 28 11.1 6 13.4% 14
5 HOU 18.6% 10-6 10.0 8 15.9% 7 -4.1% 29 10.9 7 16.4% 23
6 SF 18.6% 13-3 10.8 5 15.1% 8 -5.4% 32 12.3 2 6.8% 4
7 BAL 14.5% 12-4 10.6 6 12.2% 10 -2.0% 24 11.2 5 23.5% 31
8 ATL 13.9% 10-6 10.2 7 18.1% 6 -0.5% 18 9.4 10 5.2% 1
9 PHI 13.5% 8-8 9.0 11 21.3% 5 0.8% 10 9.8 9 16.1% 22
10 NYJ 13.5% 8-8 8.4 13 9.5% 11 0.2% 13 8.4 15 18.2% 25
11 DET 10.1% 10-6 9.4 9 12.7% 9 0.4% 12 10.1 8 9.9% 11
12 NYG 8.5% 9-7 9.1 10 6.0% 14 3.6% 4 7.8 19 15.0% 20
13 TEN 6.6% 9-7 8.3 15 5.2% 15 -3.3% 27 8.2 17 15.9% 21
14 DAL 3.5% 8-8 8.4 14 2.9% 17 0.1% 14 8.6 13 11.9% 13
15 CHI 1.3% 8-8 7.3 19 -0.4% 19 0.9% 9 8.3 16 14.0% 16
16 SD 0.7% 8-8 7.4 18 6.1% 13 -2.2% 25 8.7 11 20.8% 28
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L ESTIM.
WINS
RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK 2011
SCHED
RANK PYTH
WINS
RANK VAR. RANK
17 CIN 0.1% 9-7 8.5 12 0.3% 18 -2.4% 26 8.6 12 7.0% 5
18 MIA -1.3% 6-10 7.7 17 5.0% 16 2.5% 6 8.5 14 9.7% 10
19 SEA -1.5% 7-9 8.1 16 8.7% 12 -1.0% 21 8.2 18 18.1% 24
20 CAR -4.1% 6-10 6.9 23 -1.1% 20 -0.6% 20 7.4 20 19.8% 26
21 WAS -7.0% 5-11 6.3 25 -8.0% 21 0.7% 11 5.7 25 11.1% 12
22 OAK -8.0% 8-8 7.3 20 -11.8% 25 -0.6% 19 6.1 23 19.9% 27
23 BUF -9.7% 6-10 7.1 21 -26.9% 28 3.7% 3 6.4 22 28.3% 32
24 DEN -11.8% 8-8 7.0 22 -9.8% 22 0.0% 16 5.8 24 9.5% 9
25 CLE -14.2% 4-12 5.5 26 -11.3% 24 0.1% 15 5.0 28 6.2% 2
26 KC -16.9% 7-9 6.3 24 -9.8% 23 -0.4% 17 4.1 29 20.9% 29
27 JAC -17.4% 5-11 5.5 28 -14.1% 26 1.9% 7 5.3 26 14.3% 18
28 ARI -19.7% 8-8 4.9 29 -16.8% 27 -1.3% 22 6.9 21 8.7% 7
29 MIN -22.2% 3-13 4.6 30 -34.1% 31 1.4% 8 5.3 27 14.6% 19
30 TB -25.1% 4-12 5.5 27 -39.1% 32 5.0% 2 3.2 30 22.4% 30
31 IND -32.8% 2-14 3.0 31 -31.3% 29 3.3% 5 3.2 31 13.7% 15
32 STL -35.4% 2-14 2.2 32 -34.0% 30 5.4% 1 2.3 32 9.4% 8