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Basketball Prospectus

Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Baseball Prospectus

WIDE RECEIVERS 2007

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 12/31/2007

Wide receivers are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. This number represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level WR in the same game situations. DPAR (and its cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

DPAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch % represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.

  • We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
  • These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
  • "Points scored due to plays" is based on a larger model of how yards are translated into points, and is not a measurement strictly of touchdown passes.
  • All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

The simple version: DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.

RECEIVING: Minimum 50 passes, 87 players ranked

Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
81-R.Moss NE 51.5 1 51.4 1 32.1% 4 32.0% 159 1482 23 62%
81-T.Owens DAL 44.1 2 43.9 3 32.3% 3 32.2% 141 1355 15 57%
87-R.Wayne IND 43.5 3 44.0 2 26.9% 7 27.4% 156 1515 10 67%
83-W.Welker NE 37.1 4 35.7 4 23.9% 10 22.2% 145 1175 9 77%
12-M.Colston NO 34.7 5 34.9 5 20.2% 13 20.4% 144 1202 11 68%
85-C.Johnson CIN 34.0 6 31.8 7 16.3% 19 13.9% 161 1441 9 58%
84-B.Engram SEA 32.0 7 34.0 6 20.0% 14 22.5% 134 1151 6 70%
11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 28.4 8 28.8 8 9.9% 29 10.4% 167 1412 10 60%
81-T.Holt STL 28.0 9 26.9 11 13.2% 25 11.9% 149 1193 8 62%
80-A.Johnson HOU 27.8 10 27.0 10 33.4% 2 31.6% 86 851 8 70%
10-S.Holmes PIT 26.8 11 28.7 9 31.5% 6 35.4% 85 952 8 61%
85-G.Jennings GB 26.4 12 25.3 13 32.0% 5 29.7% 84 920 12 63%
84-T.Houshmandzadeh CIN 25.0 13 23.1 15 7.1% 38 5.2% 170 1150 14 66%
82-D.Bowe KC 23.7 14 25.7 12 15.3% 21 18.3% 117 995 5 60%
80-D.Driver GB 23.1 15 23.2 14 12.5% 26 12.7% 122 1048 3 67%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
81-A.Boldin ARI 22.4 16 22.7 16 18.2% 17 18.9% 100 854 10 71%
89-J.Cotchery NYJ 22.3 17 20.5 20 11.8% 27 9.4% 127 1130 4 65%
11-A.Gonzalez IND 21.7 18 21.9 17 48.9% 1 49.5% 51 576 3 73%
80-K.Curtis PHI 21.2 19 20.0 21 8.5% 34 6.9% 135 1110 6 57%
17-B.Edwards CLE 20.2 20 21.7 18 4.6% 44 6.4% 153 1289 16 52%
84-J.Galloway TB 20.1 21 21.0 19 15.1% 22 16.8% 98 1014 8 58%
14-B.Stokley DEN 19.2 22 18.9 23 26.1% 8 25.2% 71 635 5 56%
15-B.Marshall DEN 18.8 23 20.0 22 1.4% 51 2.6% 169 1308 7 60%
82-A.Randle El WAS 17.7 24 17.9 27 19.8% 15 20.1% 77 728 1 66%
84-P.Crayton DAL 17.7 25 17.0 29 18.6% 16 16.9% 81 697 7 62%
84-R.White ATL 17.7 26 18.5 24 4.1% 47 5.2% 137 1204 6 61%
83-K.Walter HOU 17.0 27 17.9 26 8.6% 33 10.1% 106 800 5 61%
12-J.Gage TEN 16.7 28 18.0 25 13.6% 23 16.3% 85 748 2 65%
81-A.Toomer NYG 16.4 29 15.7 32 8.9% 32 7.6% 104 760 3 57%
84-S.McDonald DET 16.1 30 15.3 33 4.4% 45 3.2% 127 980 6 62%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
18-D.Stallworth NE 15.9 31 16.0 30 16.2% 20 16.5% 74 697 3 62%
11-Re.Williams JAC 15.9 32 15.9 31 24.5% 9 24.7% 60 630 10 63%
86-H.Ward PIT 15.8 33 17.7 28 6.1% 40 9.2% 113 736 7 64%
86-D.Northcutt JAC 15.3 34 14.9 34 17.0% 18 16.1% 73 601 4 60%
87-M.Furrey DET 14.7 35 14.4 36 9.2% 30 8.5% 91 664 2 67%
19-B.Wade MIN 14.2 36 14.6 35 11.0% 28 11.9% 83 655 3 65%
81-C.Johnson DET 14.1 37 13.0 42 8.2% 35 6.1% 93 756 4 52%
17-P.Burress NYG 13.6 38 12.3 49 -0.8% 58 -2.4% 141 1025 12 50%
81-D.Patten NO 13.5 39 13.8 38 7.6% 36 8.2% 88 792 4 61%
19-I.Hilliard TB 13.1 40 13.6 39 7.5% 37 8.6% 86 724 1 72%
10-J.Gaffney NE 13.0 41 12.9 45 23.2% 11 22.9% 50 449 5 72%
86-Royd.Williams TEN 12.8 42 14.3 37 5.2% 42 7.9% 93 719 4 59%
85-N.Washington PIT 12.8 43 13.3 40 21.3% 12 23.0% 55 450 5 53%
89-C.Chambers MIA 12.7 44 12.8 46 0.0% 55 0.1% 129 970 4 51%
87-L.Coles NYJ 12.3 45 12.7 48 5.1% 43 6.0% 89 646 7 62%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
80-I.Bruce STL 12.2 46 10.7 51 3.7% 49 1.0% 101 733 4 54%
83-D.Branch SEA 11.9 47 12.9 44 5.7% 41 7.7% 85 661 4 58%
19-E.Wilford JAC 11.9 48 13.0 43 9.1% 31 11.7% 74 518 4 61%
84-J.Jurevicius CLE 11.7 49 12.8 47 6.4% 39 8.6% 81 614 4 62%
85-D.Mason BAL 11.2 50 10.6 53 -4.7% 65 -5.3% 164 1087 6 63%
44-D.Clark IND 11.1 51 11.6 50 1.0% 53 1.8% 101 616 11 57%
81-N.Burleson SEA 10.8 52 13.1 41 1.4% 50 5.6% 95 694 9 53%
80-B.Berrian CHI 10.3 53 10.7 52 -3.0% 63 -2.5% 127 948 5 55%
83-V.Jackson SD 10.2 54 9.8 55 4.4% 46 3.4% 81 623 4 51%
18-S.Rice MIN 9.9 55 8.9 58 13.5% 24 10.4% 53 396 4 58%
89-R.Curry OAK 9.8 56 10.1 54 -0.2% 57 0.5% 97 717 4 57%
11-Ro.Williams DET 9.4 57 9.1 57 -1.4% 60 -1.8% 104 838 5 61%
12-M.Jenkins ATL 8.4 58 9.2 56 -0.2% 56 1.4% 85 532 8 62%
86-R.Brown PHI 7.6 59 5.6 64 -4.6% 64 -7.7% 111 780 4 55%
87-M.Muhammad CHI 7.2 60 7.1 61 -1.7% 61 -1.9% 81 570 4 49%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
82-J.Reed BUF 7.1 61 7.1 60 -2.5% 62 -2.4% 87 578 1 59%
89-S.Moss WAS 6.8 62 5.9 62 -6.0% 67 -7.4% 115 808 3 53%
11-A.Davis HOU 6.6 63 7.7 59 0.2% 54 3.5% 63 583 3 52%
16-L.Moore NO 6.2 64 5.4 66 3.7% 48 1.0% 50 302 3 64%
83-E.Moulds TEN 5.7 65 5.9 63 1.4% 52 1.8% 52 342 0 62%
18-D.Carter CAR 5.1 66 4.9 67 -5.0% 66 -5.5% 75 517 4 51%
83-L.Evans BUF 5.1 67 5.6 65 -8.3% 70 -7.6% 113 849 6 49%
82-D.Hagan MIA 5.1 68 4.5 68 -1.0% 59 -2.8% 58 373 2 50%
89-J.Jones GB 4.4 69 4.5 69 -6.7% 68 -6.7% 80 676 2 59%
84-J.Porter OAK 4.1 70 4.2 70 -8.9% 72 -8.7% 102 705 6 43%
80-Bry.Johnson ARI 3.6 71 2.9 71 -8.7% 71 -10.2% 88 528 3 52%
18-M.Jones JAC 2.4 72 2.6 72 -7.8% 69 -7.0% 50 317 4 48%
89-S.Smith CAR 2.0 73 1.9 73 -13.0% 73 -13.0% 148 1002 7 58%
11-R.Parrish BUF 0.1 74 -1.1 75 -14.1% 74 -17.9% 58 352 1 60%
89-M.Clayton BAL -1.1 75 -0.8 74 -17.0% 75 -16.3% 89 531 0 54%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
89-R.Ferguson MIN -1.2 76 -2.2 76 -17.5% 76 -20.2% 62 391 1 52%
19-T.Ginn MIA -3.2 77 -2.9 77 -22.1% 79 -21.2% 71 420 2 48%
83-D.Bennett STL -3.3 78 -4.6 81 -21.5% 77 -24.7% 73 375 4 45%
87-J.Horn ATL -3.8 79 -3.6 79 -26.0% 81 -25.6% 52 243 1 52%
16-B.Smith NYJ -4.0 80 -5.9 82 -23.3% 80 -28.4% 67 325 3 48%
86-M.Booker MIA -4.5 81 -3.9 80 -21.6% 78 -20.6% 105 556 1 48%
84-J.Walker DEN -5.3 82 -3.5 78 -32.5% 84 -26.0% 50 287 1 52%
83-A.Battle SF -7.7 83 -6.8 83 -26.5% 82 -24.9% 104 600 5 48%
80-J.Webb KC -9.1 84 -8.2 84 -39.7% 87 -36.9% 58 313 1 48%
82-D.Jackson SF -9.6 85 -9.5 85 -28.4% 83 -28.2% 104 495 5 44%
19-L.Robinson ATL -9.9 86 -9.6 86 -36.0% 85 -35.2% 74 437 1 50%
83-K.Colbert CAR -10.6 87 -9.9 87 -38.3% 86 -36.5% 69 332 0 46%

RECEIVING, OTHERS: 8-49 passes

Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
85-J.Urban ARI 9.9 9.1 25.6% 21.6% 38 329 3 58%
80-K.McCardell WAS 9.6 8.9 32.1% 28.0% 31 256 1 71%
81-J.Avant PHI 8.5 7.5 24.3% 18.8% 33 267 2 70%
83-G.Lewis PHI 8.4 8.6 40.1% 41.4% 23 265 3 57%
18-D.Hackett SEA 8.2 8.5 10.0% 11.3% 47 384 3 68%
19-D.Henderson NO 7.8 7.5 12.3% 11.1% 42 409 3 48%
17-S.Hurd DAL 7.0 6.9 12.6% 12.3% 37 314 1 51%
83-G.Camarillo MIA 6.5 6.8 87.2% 93.2% 10 160 2 80%
82-R.Martin GB 6.3 7.0 17.2% 21.3% 28 242 4 57%
81-D.Darling BAL 6.2 6.7 9.0% 11.1% 39 326 3 46%
18-S.Parker KC 6.0 6.4 9.0% 10.9% 39 272 2 62%
15-C.Henry CIN 5.8 6.2 7.2% 9.5% 38 343 2 55%
88-M.Harrison IND 5.7 5.4 11.0% 9.7% 32 247 1 63%
Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
80-C.Wilson PIT 5.6 6.2 14.1% 17.5% 30 207 1 60%
89-D.Anderson HOU 4.5 4.7 24.0% 26.0% 17 131 1 71%
17-T.Walters DET 4.1 3.9 44.8% 41.3% 10 101 1 90%
17-G.Martinez DEN 3.6 3.2 8.2% 4.9% 25 182 0 60%
10-B.Middleton DET 3.1 3.0 30.7% 29.4% 10 70 1 80%
81-B.Jones TEN 2.6 2.6 -3.9% -4.0% 34 248 2 62%
16-G.Holt CIN 2.6 3.2 0.3% 4.4% 23 143 1 70%
18-T.Copper NO 2.2 2.2 -0.4% -0.3% 22 126 2 68%
84-H.Baskett PHI 2.0 1.2 -0.4% -6.6% 22 142 1 73%
85-M.Stovall TB 1.9 1.9 7.7% 7.9% 13 86 1 77%
17-T.Dwight OAK 1.6 1.8 1.3% 3.9% 15 98 2 40%
84-C.Davis SD 1.5 1.6 -8.3% -7.7% 34 188 1 59%
86-R.Caldwell WAS 1.4 1.0 -5.4% -8.7% 22 141 0 68%
Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
80-M.Floyd SD 1.3 1.3 0.8% 0.4% 13 97 1 54%
15-M.Hagans STL 1.3 1.5 -1.7% 0.4% 15 101 0 53%
81-K.Robinson GB 0.9 1.8 -11.4% -7.0% 34 241 1 62%
19-M.Austin DAL 0.9 0.3 1.3% -10.2% 10 76 0 50%
80-M.Clayton TB 0.7 0.9 -12.4% -11.5% 40 301 0 55%
83-J.Thrash WAS 0.7 0.9 -9.6% -7.4% 18 107 2 50%
15-J.Broussard JAC 0.6 0.8 -8.2% -5.4% 12 126 1 33%
82-T.Williamson MIN 0.4 0.0 -13.3% -14.9% 38 236 1 47%
15-W.Wright NYJ 0.4 0.4 -10.2% -9.6% 11 87 0 55%
83-A.Chatman CIN 0.3 0.2 -13.1% -14.1% 29 149 1 66%
15-S.Breaston ARI 0.3 -0.1 -11.6% -16.5% 14 92 0 57%
12-J.Jones HOU 0.2 -0.1 -13.6% -15.4% 24 147 0 63%
23-D.Hester CHI 0.1 -0.3 -14.5% -16.0% 38 299 2 53%
Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
81-P.Price BUF 0.0 -0.5 -13.8% -20.6% 13 68 0 54%
88-T.Jacobs SF 0.0 -0.6 -14.1% -26.0% 9 40 2 33%
87-B.Obomanu SEA -0.3 0.2 -16.7% -14.2% 29 180 1 41%
12-S.Smith NYG -0.5 -1.3 -18.5% -28.1% 14 63 0 57%
15-J.Higgins OAK -0.5 -0.3 -26.2% -21.8% 8 47 0 75%
10-R.Robinson CAR -0.6 -0.5 -27.3% -24.3% 8 35 0 50%
81-B.Gilmore SF -0.6 -0.3 -20.3% -17.6% 19 111 0 37%
80-D.Aromashodu IND -0.9 -0.5 -23.5% -19.5% 17 96 0 41%
87-S.Morey ARI -1.3 -1.6 -26.7% -29.9% 17 131 0 47%
83-S.Moss NYG -1.3 -2.1 -20.1% -23.8% 37 225 0 57%
86-T.Carter CLE -1.5 -1.6 -24.6% -25.4% 22 117 2 36%
81-R.Davis CHI -1.5 -2.1 -22.2% -25.6% 31 165 0 55%
80-D.Jarrett CAR -1.7 -1.6 -36.5% -34.8% 13 73 0 46%
Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
15-C.Thorpe IND -2.0 -1.9 -30.8% -29.3% 20 70 1 60%
81-J.McCareins NYJ -2.3 -4.2 -21.5% -29.1% 46 232 0 41%
84-A.Allison MIN -2.5 -2.8 -35.8% -38.1% 18 113 0 44%
87-D.Williams BAL -2.8 -1.7 -24.4% -20.3% 47 290 0 43%
82-D.Hall STL -2.9 -3.1 -52.3% -56.3% 12 27 0 42%
89-D.Looker STL -3.3 -3.9 -49.4% -57.6% 14 38 1 43%
87-E.Kennison KC -3.7 -4.2 -35.2% -38.8% 26 101 0 50%
16-M.Bradley CHI -3.7 -3.0 -48.9% -41.0% 17 71 1 35%
85-A.Moorehead IND -4.1 -4.7 -43.1% -48.7% 22 65 0 36%
17-Ch.Davis TEN -4.4 -4.1 -89.2% -82.8% 9 39 0 56%
85-B.Lloyd WAS -4.9 -4.4 -85.2% -76.9% 11 14 0 18%
18-A.Lelie SF -7.4 -7.3 -56.6% -56.4% 26 115 0 38%
18-M.Williams OAK -7.7 -7.7 -69.4% -69.8% 23 90 0 30%

RUSHING BY WIDE RECEIVERS: Minimum 4 carries

Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Runs Yards TD FUM
15-B.Marshall DEN 3.0 1 2.6 2 47.4% 2 38.6% 5 57 0 0
89-S.Smith CAR 2.7 2 2.9 1 26.6% 5 31.4% 9 66 0 0
86-D.Northcutt JAC 2.1 3 1.9 4 67.2% 1 60.5% 6 27 0 0
86-R.Brown PHI 2.0 4 1.8 5 43.3% 3 35.8% 5 36 0 0
89-J.Cotchery NYJ 1.9 5 2.0 3 40.6% 4 45.2% 5 38 0 0
85-C.Johnson CIN 1.3 6 1.3 6 3.9% 6 5.8% 6 47 0 0
83-K.Walter HOU 0.8 7 1.0 7 -5.3% 7 -2.5% 5 30 0 0
16-J.Cribbs CLE 0.7 8 0.7 8 -13.7% 8 -13.3% 8 50 0 0
80-M.Clayton TB 0.3 9 0.4 9 -15.5% 9 -14.1% 5 22 0 0
10-S.Holmes PIT -2.8 10 -2.8 11 -102.9% 11 -102.2% 5 17 0 1
16-B.Smith NYJ -3.2 11 -2.4 10 -75.9% 10 -63.5% 12 39 0 1
23-D.Hester CHI -3.5 12 -3.8 12 -113.0% 12 -120.8% 7 -10 0 0