Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics


ArmchairGM -- All Sports, All You

WIDE RECEIVERS 2004

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 8/18/2008

Wide receivers are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

True Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more True Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer True Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. True Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.

DYAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch Rate represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.

  • We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
  • These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
  • All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

The simple version: DYAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.

RECEIVING: Minimum 50 passes, 86 players ranked

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
87-R.Wayne IND 496 1 501 1 38.0% 1 38.4% 115 1210 1,530 12 67%
87-M.Muhammad CAR 419 2 432 2 20.5% 16 21.5% 160 1407 1,649 16 58%
80-M.Clayton TB 417 3 389 5 29.0% 7 26.2% 122 1196 1,431 8 66%
83-B.Stokley IND 401 4 393 4 37.7% 3 36.6% 102 1081 1,241 10 67%
87-J.Horn NO 400 5 430 3 20.6% 15 23.1% 153 1399 1,569 11 61%
84-J.Walker GB 353 6 358 6 18.5% 21 18.9% 144 1386 1,443 13 62%
81-N.Burleson MIN 352 7 350 8 30.1% 6 29.9% 102 1006 1,188 9 67%
81-T.Holt STL 331 8 350 7 18.9% 20 20.7% 136 1371 1,342 10 69%
84-T.Houshmandzadeh CIN 328 9 295 16 26.2% 9 22.3% 109 978 1,172 7 67%
84-R.Moss MIN 327 10 311 11 31.8% 5 29.7% 86 769 1,080 13 57%
81-T.Owens PHI 326 11 308 12 19.6% 19 17.8% 127 1202 1,305 14 61%
86-H.Ward PIT 325 12 315 9 24.4% 12 23.2% 109 1010 1,193 4 75%
85-A.Lelie DEN 310 13 303 13 25.2% 11 24.3% 101 1084 1,125 7 53%
88-M.Harrison IND 299 14 299 14 13.9% 29 13.9% 139 1113 1,357 15 62%
80-D.Driver GB 294 15 313 10 14.4% 28 16.1% 137 1208 1,321 9 61%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
83-L.Evans BUF 294 16 298 15 37.7% 2 38.5% 75 843 908 9 64%
87-E.Kennison KC 276 17 280 17 19.9% 18 20.3% 106 1086 1,098 8 58%
83-D.Bennett TEN 264 18 257 18 9.6% 35 9.1% 143 1244 1,350 11 56%
83-S.Moss NYJ 263 19 241 19 28.5% 8 25.0% 78 838 909 5 58%
85-D.Mason TEN 234 20 240 20 5.1% 40 5.6% 158 1168 1,420 8 61%
19-K.Johnson DAL 232 21 205 26 11.0% 33 8.3% 124 976 1,140 8 56%
80-P.Burress PIT 226 22 224 22 35.7% 4 35.3% 60 698 714 5 58%
80-R.Smith DEN 222 23 234 21 8.1% 36 9.2% 136 1144 1,197 8 58%
80-I.Bruce STL 221 24 223 23 6.6% 37 6.7% 148 1302 1,261 7 60%
80-J.Morton KC 209 25 213 24 22.5% 14 23.2% 79 795 791 3 70%
85-C.Johnson CIN 202 26 177 31 2.4% 43 0.5% 169 1274 1,392 10 56%
89-R.Curry OAK 197 27 210 25 23.4% 13 25.7% 70 679 736 6 71%
82-D.Jackson SEA 185 28 188 28 2.0% 44 2.2% 155 1199 1,299 7 56%
86-D.Patten NE 185 29 180 30 13.0% 30 12.3% 95 800 858 7 46%
87-D.Givens NE 179 30 164 33 9.9% 34 8.1% 106 874 899 3 53%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
81-J.McCareins NYJ 176 31 170 32 11.9% 32 11.2% 90 772 840 4 62%
80-A.Johnson HOU 170 32 198 27 3.2% 42 5.9% 137 1151 1,118 7 58%
88-E.Parker SD 169 33 186 29 17.9% 23 21.0% 71 690 699 4 66%
87-M.Robinson MIN 160 34 161 35 12.0% 31 12.1% 79 657 767 8 59%
86-J.Gaffney HOU 157 35 162 34 16.1% 25 17.0% 68 632 676 2 60%
82-J.Smith JAC 156 36 154 37 2.0% 45 1.7% 137 1179 1,102 6 54%
82-A.Randle El PIT 154 37 151 38 18.3% 22 17.8% 62 590 630 4 68%
83-D.Branch NE 149 38 156 36 25.6% 10 27.4% 51 454 537 4 69%
87-T.Pinkston PHI 143 39 138 39 15.8% 26 14.7% 63 676 620 1 57%
84-J.Galloway TB 141 40 136 40 20.0% 17 18.9% 53 416 559 5 62%
84-B.Engram SEA 126 41 123 41 16.9% 24 16.3% 53 499 532 2 68%
84-C.Wilson SF 122 42 102 43 6.4% 38 3.3% 85 641 702 5 55%
81-A.Hakim DET 122 43 113 42 14.4% 27 12.4% 57 533 546 3 54%
81-A.Bryant CLE 100 44 95 45 0.8% 47 0.2% 99 813 746 4 59%
83-K.Colbert CAR 97 45 101 44 0.9% 46 1.6% 92 754 720 6 51%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
80-E.Moulds BUF 78 46 75 47 -6.1% 52 -6.3% 152 1048 1,082 5 58%
84-C.Chambers MIA 70 47 58 50 -6.1% 53 -7.2% 138 878 980 10 50%
87-K.Washington CIN 69 48 75 48 5.9% 39 7.4% 50 377 405 3 64%
83-K.Curtis STL 67 49 81 46 4.9% 41 8.6% 50 421 408 2 64%
84-J.Porter OAK 54 50 45 54 -7.6% 59 -8.4% 136 998 950 10 47%
83-D.Stallworth NO 44 51 69 49 -7.3% 57 -4.1% 106 767 724 5 55%
85-B.Lloyd SF 40 52 27 57 -6.9% 56 -8.7% 89 565 617 7 48%
80-W.Chrebet NYJ 39 53 49 52 -3.2% 48 -0.7% 54 397 389 1 57%
80-J.Rice OAK 38 54 32 55 -4.7% 49 -6.1% 63 429 449 4 48%
86-D.Northcutt CLE 37 55 26 58 -7.5% 58 -9.0% 94 806 638 2 59%
80-J.Pathon NO 34 56 55 51 -5.9% 51 -1.7% 66 581 463 1 52%
11-Ro.Williams DET 34 57 12 64 -9.0% 63 -11.4% 118 817 812 8 46%
83-D.Terrell CHI 34 58 49 53 -7.7% 60 -5.6% 90 699 614 1 47%
81-K.Robinson SEA 31 59 19 61 -6.7% 54 -9.0% 67 495 475 2 46%
84-S.McDonald STL 31 60 26 59 -6.8% 55 -7.8% 68 495 479 3 54%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
80-R.Hymes BAL 28 61 28 56 -5.4% 50 -5.4% 48 323 360 2 54%
89-R.Ferguson GB 19 62 18 62 -7.7% 61 -8.1% 49 367 343 1 49%
85-C.Bradford HOU 19 63 21 60 -8.3% 62 -7.8% 54 399 374 3 50%
17-D.Watts DEN 13 64 12 65 -9.6% 64 -9.8% 53 385 356 1 58%
81-A.Toomer NYG 10 65 -31 73 -11.5% 66 -16.3% 107 747 699 0 48%
86-K.McCardell SD 9 66 17 63 -10.8% 65 -9.0% 58 393 393 1 53%
85-D.Gabriel OAK 5 67 3 67 -11.9% 67 -12.2% 79 551 516 2 42%
89-D.White ATL -6 68 -7 70 -14.0% 69 -14.4% 56 370 340 2 54%
87-R.Gardner WAS -8 69 -6 69 -13.6% 68 -13.4% 106 650 651 6 48%
81-R.Proehl CAR -9 70 6 66 -14.3% 70 -11.5% 70 497 426 1 49%
89-C.Conway SF -22 71 -37 74 -16.4% 72 -19.0% 75 403 442 3 51%
11-L.Fitzgerald ARI -31 72 -3 68 -16.1% 71 -13.0% 116 784 694 8 51%
85-K.Johnson BAL -34 73 -30 72 -19.7% 76 -19.0% 61 373 342 1 57%
81-Q.Morgan CLE -36 74 -45 76 -19.2% 73 -21.0% 68 404 390 4 46%
16-T.Edwards JAC -40 75 -30 71 -19.5% 75 -17.8% 80 533 413 1 63%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
84-C.Moore BAL -49 76 -57 78 -23.3% 79 -25.2% 58 293 299 4 41%
86-M.Booker MIA -54 77 -54 77 -19.3% 74 -19.3% 105 638 583 1 48%
84-T.Streets DET -67 78 -72 79 -27.5% 81 -28.6% 56 260 270 2 50%
11-Re.Williams JAC -71 79 -74 80 -29.2% 82 -29.8% 54 268 246 1 50%
81-A.Boldin ARI -74 80 -37 75 -21.8% 77 -17.2% 104 623 554 1 54%
88-I.Hilliard NYG -105 81 -121 82 -29.5% 83 -32.2% 81 441 351 0 60%
80-B.Johnson ARI -113 82 -100 81 -26.7% 80 -25.0% 101 538 490 1 49%
89-T.Taylor BAL -136 83 -129 84 -34.4% 85 -33.4% 80 421 308 0 43%
80-L.Coles WAS -138 84 -122 83 -23.3% 78 -22.0% 168 950 856 1 54%
81-P.Price ATL -143 85 -136 85 -30.3% 84 -29.4% 106 575 450 3 42%
84-B.Wade CHI -190 86 -170 86 -41.3% 86 -38.3% 89 481 259 1 47%

RECEIVING, OTHERS: 10-49 passes

Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
88-D.Armstrong HOU 136 154 34.6% 40.8% 39 415 435 1 74%
87-A.Davis CLE 125 115 36.8% 32.8% 33 416 389 2 48%
83-T.Glenn DAL 120 122 28.6% 29.3% 37 380 414 2 65%
16-K.Campbell MIN 107 106 27.2% 26.8% 32 364 377 1 59%
83-J.Jurevicius TB 100 110 21.1% 24.6% 37 333 388 2 73%
86-B.Finneran ATL 69 70 12.3% 12.6% 33 258 327 2 70%
84-F.Mitchell PHI 63 57 4.9% 3.2% 44 377 386 2 50%
88-D.Thompson MIA 62 64 5.9% 6.4% 47 359 364 4 49%
84-T.Carter NYG 60 56 28.9% 26.0% 18 182 207 1 67%
84-J.Carter NYJ 59 58 34.6% 33.2% 16 173 190 1 63%
81-K.Osgood SD 58 59 11.0% 11.5% 33 308 284 2 45%
11-B.Schroeder TB 54 57 48.3% 52.4% 11 156 151 1 64%
19-F.Jackson CLE 52 46 24.5% 19.9% 19 168 192 0 68%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
19-E.Wilford JAC 52 68 6.9% 12.6% 35 271 294 3 54%
83-J.Thrash WAS 50 53 18.6% 20.6% 21 203 203 0 81%
18-S.Parker KC 49 49 34.0% 34.2% 13 137 156 1 69%
82-R.Caldwell SD 47 54 9.5% 12.8% 29 310 241 3 62%
84-P.Crayton DAL 43 44 27.2% 27.4% 14 132 152 1 79%
87-A.Whitted OAK 41 37 8.4% 6.5% 25 227 219 2 36%
84-M.Lewis NO 37 38 26.3% 26.7% 13 127 133 0 62%
82-C.Lee TB 37 38 9.3% 9.6% 22 207 192 0 68%
85-D.Tyree NYG 34 38 11.8% 15.3% 17 155 161 1 59%
82-D.Hall KC 31 29 -2.4% -2.9% 38 230 291 0 66%
88-R.Swinton DET 30 19 -0.3% -5.0% 31 213 243 1 58%
83-A.Battle SF 29 19 11.0% 2.7% 15 143 144 0 53%
81-C.Horn KC 24 15 -0.9% -5.2% 27 178 200 1 56%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
80-P.Warrick CIN 24 28 6.3% 10.0% 17 127 137 0 65%
80-T.Brown NE 23 20 -2.1% -3.6% 29 184 214 1 59%
81-B.Johnson NE 22 36 1.3% 10.6% 21 174 159 2 48%
86-J.Taylor NYG 17 19 0.0% 1.5% 17 146 132 0 35%
82-E.Berlin TEN 14 22 -8.1% -5.6% 41 278 275 1 49%
14-N.Jackson DEN 9 6 -0.6% -4.9% 11 73 78 0 73%
89-S.Aiken BUF 9 1 -6.6% -11.9% 18 148 131 0 61%
86-K.Williams ARI 1 1 -12.2% -12.3% 30 197 191 0 60%
89-J.Cotchery NYJ 1 -3 -11.9% -15.8% 11 60 77 0 55%
87-D.Kircus DET -3 -4 -16.4% -18.7% 10 68 56 1 30%
18-T.Copper DAL -6 -16 -16.4% -23.4% 20 84 116 1 35%
81-R.Woods SF -7 -18 -16.7% -22.6% 23 160 136 2 30%
84-T.Jacobs WAS -7 -9 -16.0% -17.0% 27 178 166 0 59%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True

Yards		 TD Catch

Rate
89-N.Poole ARI -10 -10 -25.1% -25.4% 11 70 49 0 45%
89-D.Looker STL -23 -33 -24.7% -29.5% 26 183 124 0 50%
83-A.Chatman GB -24 -14 -19.6% -16.7% 45 246 247 1 49%
82-B.Gilmore MIA -26 -31 -22.4% -24.1% 34 206 181 1 44%
89-L.Mays PIT -29 -29 -28.6% -28.5% 23 137 106 0 39%
83-G.Lewis PHI -32 -40 -24.6% -27.5% 36 183 174 0 47%
81-B.Shaw BUF -33 -31 -49.3% -47.1% 13 59 24 0 38%
81-T.Brown TB -41 -44 -29.5% -30.6% 31 200 138 1 77%
12-M.Jenkins ATL -47 -45 -41.6% -40.2% 20 119 63 0 35%
82-J.Reed BUF -52 -60 -31.7% -34.6% 36 153 147 0 44%
87-J.Gage CHI -52 -43 -37.6% -32.9% 28 156 94 0 43%
80-B.McMullen PHI -94 -101 -78.9% -84.0% 17 24 -23 0 18%
80-B.Berrian CHI -99 -89 -42.1% -39.1% 44 225 128 2 34%

RUSHING BY WIDE RECEIVERS: Minimum 5 carries

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Rk Runs Yards True

Yards		 Rk TD FUM
84-B.Wade CHI 49 1 52 1 63.2% 4 69.9% 3 12 76 119 1 0 0
81-N.Burleson MIN 48 2 47 3 60.5% 5 58.5% 5 6 49 116 2 0 0
83-L.Evans BUF 47 3 49 2 146.9% 1 155.5% 1 5 85 110 3 0 0
84-T.Houshmandzadeh CIN 35 4 34 4 73.5% 2 72.0% 2 6 51 83 4 0 0
82-D.Hall KC 32 5 33 5 27.9% 8 29.2% 8 8 56 80 5 0 0
84-C.Chambers MIA 27 6 29 6 29.6% 7 33.4% 7 9 66 67 6 0 1
17-D.Watts DEN 27 7 27 7 63.2% 3 64.5% 4 5 33 65 7 0 0
80-R.Smith DEN 19 8 20 8 7.9% 9 10.2% 10 5 33 49 8 0 0
83-D.Stallworth NO 19 9 20 9 35.9% 6 36.6% 6 6 37 48 9 0 0
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Rk Runs Yards True

Yards		 Rk TD FUM
80-M.Clayton TB 17 10 19 10 6.8% 10 11.8% 9 5 30 43 10 0 0
82-A.Randle El PIT 10 11 8 12 -16.1% 13 -20.6% 13 8 34 28 11 0 0
86-H.Ward PIT 8 12 12 11 -8.9% 12 2.8% 11 5 19 22 12 1 0
80-E.Moulds BUF 7 13 6 13 -7.8% 11 -9.5% 12 5 19 18 13 0 0
80-J.Morton KC 3 14 5 14 -29.0% 14 -24.7% 14 7 43 12 14 0 1
86-D.Northcutt CLE 1 15 0 15 -36.2% 15 -38.2% 16 8 19 8 15 0 0
80-B.Berrian CHI -4 16 0 16 -49.5% 16 -38.1% 15 8 28 -5 16 0 0
11-L.Fitzgerald ARI -5 17 -5 17 -52.6% 17 -52.1% 17 7 10 -8 17 0 0
83-S.Moss NYJ -6 18 -7 18 -53.4% 18 -54.5% 18 6 23 -10 18 0 1