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Basketball Prospectus

Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Baseball Prospectus

WIDE RECEIVERS 2006

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 1/1/2007

Wide receivers are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. This number represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level WR in the same game situations. DPAR (and its cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

DPAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch % represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.

  • We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
  • These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
  • "Points scored due to plays" is based on a larger model of how yards are translated into points, and is not a measurement strictly of touchdown passes.
  • All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

The simple version: DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.

RECEIVING: Minimum 50 passes, 82 players ranked

Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
87-R.Wayne IND 46.0 1 44.2 1 35.0% 3 32.7% 137 1314 9 63%
88-M.Harrison IND 44.3 2 43.3 2 28.9% 5 27.8% 148 1366 12 64%
83-L.Evans BUF 34.4 3 31.8 3 23.3% 8 20.0% 137 1292 8 60%
84-T.Houshmandzadeh CIN 31.4 4 31.2 4 20.7% 10 20.4% 132 1081 9 68%
85-C.Johnson CIN 31.4 5 31.1 5 15.5% 17 15.2% 152 1375 7 57%
11-Ro.Williams DET 29.0 6 27.8 9 14.1% 21 12.7% 151 1310 7 54%
11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 27.6 7 28.9 6 22.3% 9 24.3% 111 946 6 62%
81-T.Owens DAL 27.4 8 28.6 7 12.2% 28 13.5% 152 1180 13 56%
83-T.Glenn DAL 26.6 9 28.3 8 20.4% 11 23.0% 110 1047 6 64%
87-M.Furrey DET 25.8 10 24.3 12 12.5% 27 10.6% 146 1086 6 67%
12-M.Colston NO 25.4 11 27.2 10 17.3% 16 19.9% 115 1038 8 61%
80-I.Bruce STL 24.9 12 24.4 11 13.9% 23 13.3% 126 1098 3 59%
89-J.Cotchery NYJ 23.5 13 22.1 16 13.0% 25 11.0% 125 960 6 66%
89-S.Smith CAR 22.4 14 23.2 13 8.9% 34 9.8% 139 1166 8 60%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
18-D.Hackett SEA 22.0 15 23.1 14 35.7% 2 38.6% 67 610 4 67%
84-J.Walker DEN 21.0 16 21.8 17 10.0% 30 11.2% 126 1084 8 55%
19-D.Henderson NO 20.2 17 22.2 15 39.7% 1 46.2% 54 745 5 59%
87-J.Horn NO 19.7 18 20.7 19 31.7% 4 34.4% 61 679 4 61%
10-S.Holmes PIT 19.6 19 20.6 20 18.3% 15 20.3% 86 824 2 57%
88-E.Parker SD 19.2 20 20.8 18 26.5% 7 30.7% 70 659 0 69%
81-A.Boldin ARI 18.8 21 18.5 22 3.9% 39 3.6% 152 1203 4 55%
86-R.Brown PHI 18.6 22 18.8 21 15.4% 18 15.8% 91 816 8 51%
87-E.Kennison KC 18.6 23 18.0 24 13.0% 26 11.9% 101 860 5 52%
82-D.Jackson SEA 17.7 24 18.0 25 9.1% 33 9.6% 112 968 10 56%
89-R.Curry OAK 17.1 25 18.3 23 14.2% 20 16.6% 89 727 1 70%
86-M.Booker MIA 16.9 26 16.5 26 13.9% 22 13.1% 90 747 6 61%
80-Bry.Johnson ARI 16.5 27 15.9 27 19.9% 13 18.4% 75 740 4 53%
80-A.Johnson HOU 16.4 28 14.5 32 0.0% 48 -1.9% 164 1155 5 63%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
83-K.Curtis STL 16.1 29 15.5 29 27.4% 6 25.5% 57 479 4 70%
86-H.Ward PIT 16.0 30 15.5 28 3.8% 40 3.2% 127 996 6 59%
18-S.Parker KC 15.7 31 15.0 31 19.9% 12 18.0% 68 561 1 60%
87-R.Caldwell NE 15.7 32 12.7 37 9.4% 32 4.1% 102 767 4 60%
85-N.Washington PIT 15.1 33 15.2 30 19.9% 14 20.1% 69 624 4 51%
87-L.Coles NYJ 14.8 34 12.4 40 -0.1% 49 -2.9% 151 1080 6 60%
87-M.Muhammad CHI 13.0 35 12.9 36 1.6% 43 1.4% 117 863 5 51%
17-P.Burress NYG 13.0 36 11.8 41 1.3% 44 -0.4% 121 988 10 52%
80-D.Driver GB 12.7 37 9.9 47 -3.6% 54 -6.4% 173 1270 8 53%
83-A.Battle SF 12.4 38 12.5 39 6.9% 36 7.0% 86 692 3 70%
18-D.Stallworth PHI 12.3 39 13.6 33 7.4% 35 10.4% 78 725 5 49%
89-M.Clayton BAL 12.1 40 13.2 34 1.0% 45 2.7% 113 938 5 59%
84-J.Jurevicius CLE 11.9 41 12.7 38 12.1% 29 14.2% 65 495 3 62%
81-T.Holt STL 11.6 42 12.9 35 -5.6% 58 -4.3% 179 1192 10 52%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
19-B.Wade TEN 11.1 43 10.7 43 14.9% 19 13.4% 58 461 2 57%
84-E.Moulds HOU 10.8 44 9.5 49 6.3% 37 3.2% 77 557 1 74%
85-D.Mason BAL 9.9 45 11.1 42 -1.9% 51 0.1% 112 750 2 61%
83-W.Welker MIA 9.6 46 8.9 52 0.1% 47 -1.2% 100 687 1 67%
87-K.McCardell SD 9.5 47 9.5 48 13.1% 24 13.0% 51 437 0 71%
15-C.Henry CIN 9.1 48 10.1 45 3.5% 41 5.8% 75 605 9 48%
89-S.Moss WAS 8.9 49 10.3 44 -2.0% 52 0.5% 100 767 6 54%
81-A.Toomer NYG 8.6 50 9.0 51 9.8% 31 11.0% 50 360 3 64%
89-T.Taylor MIN 8.6 51 5.9 57 0.6% 46 -4.9% 86 647 3 65%
83-D.Branch SEA 8.2 52 8.7 53 -3.0% 53 -2.0% 101 725 4 52%
18-M.Jones JAC 7.5 53 10.1 46 -1.5% 50 4.3% 76 643 4 54%
83-V.Jackson SD 7.5 54 7.8 55 5.5% 38 6.7% 56 453 6 48%
19-K.Johnson CAR 6.7 55 9.1 50 -7.6% 60 -4.3% 128 821 4 55%
83-D.Bennett TEN 6.6 56 5.6 58 -4.5% 56 -6.1% 97 737 3 47%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
81-B.Jones TEN 6.4 57 6.3 56 2.8% 42 2.7% 55 384 4 49%
81-A.Bryant SF 6.2 58 5.6 59 -4.6% 57 -5.7% 91 733 3 44%
84-J.Galloway TB 5.7 59 8.0 54 -9.4% 61 -6.5% 141 1057 7 44%
80-C.Wilson PIT 4.8 60 3.8 61 -4.4% 55 -6.8% 69 504 1 54%
80-T.Brown NE 4.2 61 3.1 65 -6.3% 59 -9.0% 76 386 4 58%
11-Re.Williams JAC 3.3 62 4.6 60 -9.9% 62 -7.3% 91 616 4 57%
19-E.Wilford JAC 2.3 63 3.1 64 -10.7% 63 -8.8% 74 524 2 49%
18-D.Carter CAR 1.7 64 3.7 62 -10.9% 64 -3.9% 51 357 3 55%
17-B.Edwards CLE 1.7 65 3.5 63 -13.3% 65 -10.7% 123 879 6 49%
80-B.Berrian CHI 1.1 66 1.4 66 -13.5% 67 -13.0% 102 775 6 50%
18-R.Moss OAK 0.8 67 0.8 68 -13.8% 68 -13.7% 97 553 3 43%
81-P.Price BUF 0.4 68 -1.6 73 -13.5% 66 -18.1% 78 399 3 64%
87-M.Robinson MIN -0.2 69 -0.3 70 -15.5% 69 -15.8% 58 384 4 50%
19-I.Hilliard TB -0.4 70 1.1 67 -17.0% 72 -11.9% 55 339 2 62%
Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
84-R.White ATL -0.5 71 -0.3 69 -16.5% 71 -15.7% 64 509 0 47%
82-T.Williamson MIN -0.9 72 -2.6 77 -16.1% 70 -20.0% 76 455 0 49%
87-A.Lelie ATL -1.4 73 -1.5 72 -17.9% 74 -18.3% 68 430 1 41%
12-M.Jenkins ATL -1.4 74 -1.1 71 -17.7% 73 -17.1% 83 436 7 47%
81-R.Davis CHI -1.8 75 -2.4 75 -19.9% 75 -21.7% 56 303 2 39%
82-A.Randle El WAS -2.6 76 -2.4 76 -21.1% 76 -20.8% 63 351 3 51%
80-M.Clayton TB -3.8 77 -3.3 78 -24.0% 79 -22.5% 65 360 1 51%
80-R.Smith DEN -4.1 78 -2.1 74 -22.1% 77 -18.4% 94 512 3 55%
85-B.Lloyd WAS -4.1 79 -3.8 79 -26.0% 80 -25.1% 58 388 0 41%
85-G.Jennings GB -6.4 80 -7.0 80 -24.0% 78 -25.0% 105 632 3 43%
87-A.Whitted OAK -8.9 81 -8.3 81 -36.8% 82 -35.2% 63 303 0 43%
84-C.Chambers MIA -19.8 82 -21.9 82 -33.6% 81 -36.0% 153 677 4 39%

RECEIVING, OTHERS: 10-49 passes

Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
84-P.Crayton DAL 16.5 17.3 37.4% 40.4% 48 519 4 75%
83-G.Lewis PHI 8.4 9.8 19.8% 27.1% 37 348 2 65%
82-J.Reed BUF 8.4 8.2 12.5% 11.7% 48 410 2 71%
16-M.Bradley CHI 7.9 8.0 38.9% 39.4% 23 282 3 61%
84-B.Engram SEA 7.3 7.6 16.1% 17.5% 36 290 1 67%
84-H.Baskett PHI 7.3 7.9 10.2% 12.6% 43 464 2 51%
82-R.Martin GB 7.3 6.0 11.6% 6.4% 43 358 1 49%
87-D.Williams BAL 5.3 6.0 3.2% 5.9% 45 396 2 49%
18-T.Copper NO 5.3 6.3 2.9% 6.8% 42 388 3 55%
12-B.McMullen MIN 5.1 4.6 4.5% 2.4% 42 306 2 57%
81-J.McCareins NYJ 5.0 4.5 4.2% 1.9% 39 345 1 59%
17-C.Jackson NE 4.9 4.2 23.5% 17.1% 19 152 3 68%
86-T.Walters ARI 4.7 4.0 6.3% 2.7% 34 209 2 68%
Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
87-K.Washington CIN 4.3 4.6 36.6% 40.9% 12 115 1 75%
85-D.Gabriel NE 4.1 2.9 -1.2% -5.7% 47 344 3 53%
89-J.Jones NO 3.6 3.6 42.5% 42.3% 10 108 1 60%
10-J.Gaffney NE 3.1 2.6 8.5% 4.3% 20 142 1 55%
83-J.Thrash WAS 3.1 3.6 6.5% 11.3% 20 151 1 60%
82-D.Hagan MIA 2.7 1.6 -3.0% -8.6% 37 221 1 57%
18-C.Holiday GB 2.5 2.1 11.7% 6.6% 15 126 0 60%
85-K.Walter HOU 2.4 2.4 2.5% 2.6% 21 160 0 81%
15-B.Marshall DEN 2.3 2.8 -6.1% -3.6% 37 309 2 54%
83-B.Stokley IND 2.2 2.5 17.6% 22.3% 11 85 1 73%
17-T.Dwight NYJ 2.2 1.8 2.5% -1.0% 19 112 0 84%
82-D.Hall KC 2.1 1.9 -6.9% -7.7% 40 204 2 65%
85-M.Stovall TB 1.7 1.7 5.6% 5.6% 13 102 0 54%
Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
85-D.Tyree NYG 1.4 0.3 -7.7% -13.6% 33 197 2 58%
81-Be.Johnson MIN 1.4 0.9 -3.7% -7.9% 19 156 0 47%
81-K.Robinson GB 0.6 0.7 -8.9% -7.9% 16 89 0 44%
80-M.Floyd SD 0.2 0.8 -14.4% -11.5% 32 210 3 47%
17-S.Hurd DAL 0.2 0.5 -12.7% -7.6% 11 75 0 45%
17-C.Bradford DET 0.2 0.3 -13.8% -13.3% 25 166 0 56%
85-J.Madsen OAK 0.2 0.7 -14.1% -9.0% 19 146 1 58%
84-S.McDonald STL 0.2 0.3 -13.9% -12.6% 19 136 1 68%
81-N.Burleson SEA 0.1 -0.1 -14.3% -15.3% 37 192 2 49%
11-R.Parrish BUF 0.0 -0.8 -14.5% -17.9% 40 320 2 58%
86-Royd.Williams TEN -0.1 -0.1 -16.1% -16.0% 20 121 0 40%
85-A.Moorehead IND -0.2 -0.3 -17.2% -18.0% 16 82 1 50%
83-A.Hakim DET -0.6 -0.6 -18.3% -18.4% 27 147 0 63%
Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
87-D.Kircus DEN -0.7 -0.3 -19.6% -16.7% 27 187 0 33%
16-B.Smith NYJ -0.8 -1.1 -23.3% -26.9% 14 64 0 64%
88-M.Williams DET -0.9 -1.3 -21.8% -26.4% 18 99 1 44%
85-C.Hankton JAC -0.9 -0.7 -28.6% -25.3% 11 48 0 45%
87-D.Givens TEN -2.3 -2.3 -32.5% -32.5% 20 104 0 40%
83-K.Colbert CAR -2.3 -1.7 -46.0% -36.1% 12 56 0 42%
88-T.Jacobs SF -2.5 -3.3 -44.4% -56.2% 12 29 0 33%
16-J.Cribbs CLE -2.8 -2.8 -43.8% -44.1% 15 91 0 67%
81-J.Avant PHI -2.8 -2.4 -45.7% -40.7% 15 68 1 47%
89-R.Ferguson GB -3.0 -3.3 -49.7% -53.7% 13 31 1 38%
18-E.Drummond DET -3.2 -3.5 -64.9% -69.7% 10 10 0 20%
83-S.Moss NYG -3.5 -3.7 -59.5% -62.5% 11 25 0 45%
19-J.Morant OAK -4.3 -4.2 -68.7% -66.5% 12 70 0 58%
Player Team DPAR PAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards TD Catch
%
86-D.Northcutt CLE -4.8 -4.3 -31.4% -29.5% 45 228 0 49%
84-T.Carter NYG -5.2 -4.4 -31.6% -28.4% 49 253 2 45%
84-B.Gilmore SF -7.2 -8.0 -49.4% -53.7% 31 150 1 26%

RUSHING BY WIDE RECEIVERS: Minimum 4 carries

Player Team DPAR DPAR
Rank		 PAR PAR
Rank		 DVOA DVOA
Rank		 VOA Runs Yards TD FUM
16-B.Smith NYJ 4.8 1 5.3 1 11.9% 4 15.9% 18 103 0 0
84-J.Walker DEN 4.5 2 4.3 2 52.7% 1 49.9% 9 123 1 0
84-C.Chambers MIA 3.4 3 3.6 3 35.7% 2 39.8% 8 95 0 0
84-B.Gilmore SF 2.3 4 2.7 4 19.6% 3 27.9% 7 94 0 1
82-A.Randle El WAS 1.7 5 1.6 5 -12.1% 6 -12.6% 19 118 0 0
89-S.Smith CAR 0.7 6 0.8 6 -8.4% 5 -7.3% 8 61 1 1
89-S.Moss WAS 0.7 7 0.3 8 -13.2% 7 -21.2% 7 82 0 1
89-J.Cotchery NYJ 0.3 8 0.4 7 -15.2% 8 -14.4% 5 25 0 0
81-P.Price BUF -0.5 9 -0.4 9 -44.2% 10 -40.6% 5 18 0 0
85-C.Johnson CIN -0.6 10 -0.4 10 -39.9% 9 -36.7% 6 24 0 0
81-A.Boldin ARI -0.7 11 -0.8 12 -56.5% 12 -60.8% 5 28 0 1
80-M.Clayton TB -0.9 12 -0.7 11 -50.9% 11 -46.4% 5 41 0 1
11-Re.Williams JAC -1.5 13 -1.4 13 -60.6% 14 -58.0% 7 33 0 1
80-D.Driver GB -1.8 14 -1.8 14 -57.0% 13 -56.9% 7 16 0 0
89-M.Clayton BAL -5.5 15 -5.5 15 -149.6% 15 -148.2% 7 -30 0 0