Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

01 Oct 2008

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Here's what is included in Football Outsiders Premium:

The historical DVOA database, which can be viewed in a variety of formats. These include: DVOA by down, area of field, or current score gap; the development of one team's DVOA over a 25-year span; and one team's weekly DVOA for all 16 games of the regular season. It also includes Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate for past seasons. Right now the database goes from 1989 through 2013, and it will be updated regularly on Tuesdays during the 2014 season. (ALY/ASR go back to 1995 only.)

Historical access to the new Football Outsiders player pages. All readers can see the last three years of data and the last year of game charting data, but Premium users can see all data back to 1989 and all game charting data back to 2005, as well as an archive of all articles on FO relating to each player since we launched in 2003. For all current players, you also get lists giving the ten most similar players over one-, two-, and three-year spans. Please note that the database does not yet include playoff performance or game-by-game logs for players, just season stats.

Premium access also includes the Football Outsiders weekly picks. These picks come in two flavors -- spread, and straight-up -- and use a formula that incorporates particular splits of DVOA as well as injury and weather data. Here is the record of FO regular-season picks over the past four years:

PICKS VS. SPREAD:

  • 2010 Regular season: 141-108-7, .561
  • 2011 Regular season: 127-117-12, .520
  • 2012 Regular season: 144-104-8, .578
  • 2013 Regular season: 119-130-7, .479

STRAIGHT-UP PICKS

  • 2010 Regular season: 165-91, .641
  • 2011 Regular season: 164-92, .642
  • 2012 Regular season: 171-84-1, .670
  • 2013 Regular season: 171-84-1, .670

A note about 2013: Yes, that record against the spread is pretty bad. It was a very strange first few weeks. Read this article about how most stats-based sites had terrible picks earlier in the season. Things returned to normal after Week 6; not a great year against the spread, but not terrible either. In Weeks 7-17, the FO picks were 84-75-5 against the spread (.527) and 113-50-1 straight up (.692).

Finally, Premium access includes the Fantasy Football Answering Service, with a response to fantasy football lineup and trade questions within 24 hours. Check out these Emanski-esque testimonials for the service from Premium members who used the service in the recent past:

Jason: I have been using the Football Outsiders Fantasy Football Answering Service since December 2008 and would recommend it to anyone playing fantasy football looking to gain an edge over their competition. Bill Barnwell's quick, timely, and well researched responses to my fantasy questions were instrumental in clinching my league in 2008, and finishing third last year despite a horrible 0-and-3 start.

Dean: The FO answering service gave me the specific week to week advice I needed to win back to back league championships! I picked up Jerome Harrison in a PPR league championship week but talked myself out of starting him. The guys at FO reminded me that he was guaranteed to get passing targets given the offensive scheme, especially against a weak pass D vs. RBs. I put him back in the lineup, won the league, and the rest is history.

Erin: Football Outsiders' Premium Service is awesome! Lightning-fast answers to my emails were full of quality advice, which gave me confidence in my decisions. Draft, trade and start advice was excellent. There were periods last year when I just didn't have the time to do enough research for my weekly cap league, and this service was a gold mine. I highly recommend FO!!!

Click here to see a free sample of the Premium database, featuring 2011 DVOA data.

There are three ways to buy access to the Premium DVOA Database:

  • $44 for a one-year subscription to Premium
  • $54 for a one-year subscription to Premium plus the PDF version of Football Outsiders Almanac 2014 (a.k.a. "The Fantasy Football Haters Package").
  • $64 for the MEGA PACKAGE deal that includes a one-year subscription to Premium, the 2014 KUBIAK fantasy football projections download, and the PDF version of Football Outsiders Almanac 2014.

IMPORTANT!

Sometimes there is a delay between purchasing Premium Access and getting access to the Premium section. This delay can be up to a few hours, depending on payment processor traffic, but is usually less than that. Please do not send Help emails if you have just purchased Premium but can't get access; if after a few hours you still don't have access, then please send a help request to mailbag-at-footballoutsiders-dot-com, with "PREMIUM ACCESS" in the subject header. Please include the date/time of purchase and the email address you used to purchase it.

ALSO IMPORTANT: If you pay by PayPal eCheck (as opposed to credit card or by direct transfer from PayPal funds), you may not be able to access FO Premium for a few days. This is because PayPal takes a few days to verify funds (just like sending a real check), and is completely out of our control. Please take this fact into account before purchasing the projections. PRETTY PLEASE. We have problems with this every year from people who don't understand how their PayPal account is drawing funds.

Football Outsiders reserves the right to cancel Premium subscriptions if a Premium subscriber is posting our weekly picks for free public consumption prior to Sunday's games.

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Posted by: holman on 01 Oct 2008

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