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14 Feb 2012

Under the Cap: AFC East Cap Overview

by Brian McIntyre

Over the next two weeks, Football Outsiders will take a look a division-by-division look at the salary cap situations of all 32 NFL teams. We'll look at estimated cap space -– since cap situations are fluid and actual adjusted cap figures for 2012 remain unknown -– restricted free agents, unrestricted free agents, which players are candidates for the franchise tag and which players are headed towards the chopping block.

We start with the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills

Estimated Cap Space: $30-$35 million

Unrestricted Free Agents (13): Demetrius Bell, Scott Chandler, Tashard Choice, Reggie Corner, Andra Davis, Derek Hagan, Steve Johnson, Ruvell Martin, Kirk Morrison, Roscoe Parrish, Dave Rayner, Bryan Scott, Reggie Torbor

Restricted Free Agents (2): Chad Rinehart, Kraig Urbik

Rinehart (12) and Urbik (13) combined to start 25 games in 2011. Unless they receive "upgraded tenders" to the first ($2.742 million) or second round ($1.927 million) level, both of these former third-round picks should receive an "original round" restricted free agent tenders worth $1.26 million.

Franchise Tag Candidate: Steve Johnson has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, scored 17 touchdowns and has ranked among the top-30 receivers in DYAR over the last two seasons. Johnson's production dipped slightly in 2011, and his celebratory antics may be growing tiresome to some in Western New York, but he's the closest the Bills have to a No. 1 receiver. After making a considerable financial investment in quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, and with ample cap space, a marker projected to be worth nearly $9.5 million in 2012 may spur talks towards a long-term deal that works for both sides.

Potential Cap Casualties/Restructures: Outside linebacker Shawne Merriman produced one quarterback sack in five games before returning to his familiar place on injured reserve. Merriman is scheduled to earn $5.25 million in total compensation, including a $4 million base salary that has a $3 million guarantee on it for skill and cap. Cornerback Terrence McGee has the team's highest cap number, has missed 22 of 48 games over the last three seasons, two of which were finished on injured reserve and he turns 32 in October. Releasing him would clear $2.1 million of cap space.

Miami Dolphins

Estimated Cap Space: Around $16 million

Unrestricted Free Agents (11): Ikaika Alama-Francis, Will Allen, Vernon Carey, Marc Colombo, Chad Henne, Kendall Langford, J.P. Losman, Marvin Mitchell, Steve Slaton, Paul Soliai, Jason Taylor (retired)

Restricted Free Agents (4): Ryan Baker, Lex Hilliard, Philip Merling, Lydon Murtha

Merling was a second-round pick in 2008 who missed out an accrued season when he began 2010 on the "Non-Football Injury" list with an Achilles' injury. Had Merling been activated one week earlier that season, he would be eligible for unrestricted free agency. A "second round" tender would be worth $1.927 million in non-guaranteed base salary in 2012. Merling has started just five of the 47 games he's been active in the NFL, which could make the nearly $2 million price tag a bit steep. An "original round" tender would come with a $1.26 million base salary. Baker, Hilliard and Murtha are late-round picks or undrafted free agents who are unlikely to receive a tender offer higher than the "original round/right of first refusal" level.

Franchise Tag Candidate: The Dolphins used the franchise tag on nose tackle Paul Soliai in 2011, which was worth $12.476 million. The 2012 tender for defensive tackles is projected to be worth over $4 million less in 2012, but to franchise Soliai a second time would cost the Dolphins 120 percent of his 2011 salary, or $14.971 million in fully guaranteed base salary, absorbing nearly all of their available cap space. The Dolphins improved from 24th in run defense DVOA in 2009 to fourth in 2010 and 12th in 2011 and are reportedly transitioning to a hybrid 3-4/4-3 system under new defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle, making them unlikely to commit $15 million in 2012 to a nose tackle.

Potential Cap Casualties/Restructures: Left tackle Jake Long, wide receiver Brandon Marshall and inside linebacker Karlos Dansby are scheduled to earn over $9 million in cash compensation with cap numbers north of $11 million. A long-term extension for Long, and short-term restructures for Marshall and Dansby, could clear a few million dollars off the Dolphins' cap. Safety Yeremiah Bell lead the Dolphins in tackles in 2011, but is getting a bit long in the tooth. Bell will turn 34 on March 3 and is due $4.3 million in base salary in the final year of his contract. Bell's release would clear $4.35 million of cap space.

New England Patriots

Estimated Cap Space: Around $20 million

Unrestricted Free Agents (17): Mark Anderson, Deion Branch, Andre Carter, Dan Connolly, Shaun Ellis, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Gary Guyton, James Ihedigbo, Nate Jones, Dan Koppen, Niko Koutouvides, Antwaun Molden, Matt Slater, Gerard Warren, Wes Welker, Tracy White

Restricted Free Agents (2): Brian Hoyer, Bret Lockett

Undrafted out of Michigan State in 2009, Hoyer has spent the last three seasons as Tom Brady's understudy. Though Ryan Mallett was added in the third round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the Patriots are unlikely to let Hoyer get away for nothing. A "first round" tender worth $2.742 million in non-guaranteed base salary would not be surprising as the Patriots listen to trade offers.

Franchise Tag Candidate: Wes Welker led the NFL in receptions (122), ranked second in receiving yards (1,569) and ranked third in receiving DYAR (475) in 2011. Though he's on the wrong side of 30, it would be a stunning development if the Patriots allowed Welker to test the free agent market when using the franchise tag between February 20 and March 5 would cost a projected $9.5 million to retain negotiating rights through the off-season.

Potential Cap Casualties/Restructures: Cap space is not a pressing issue for the Patriots, but if the need were to arise to clear additional cap space -– perhaps to make a run at Mario Williams to improve the pass rush or Brandon Lloyd to give the offense a downfield receiving threat –- space could be found by restructuring the contract of Tom Brady, who is scheduled to receive $5.75 million in base salary and a $6 million roster bonus. Brady's 2012 cap number is $15.2 million next season, which could be reduced by $4 million if his roster bonus, which has already been deferred to February 15, 2013, were converted to a signing bonus and prorated over the remaining three seasons. The Patriots could reduce Brady's cap number even further, to as low as $6.54 million, by reducing his base salary to the league minimum ($925,000) and converting the remaining base salary and roster bonus into a signing bonus prorated over five seasons (tacking two seasons onto his contract). $1.4 million in additional cap space could be found by releasing Chad Ochocinco, who is due a $3 million base salary.

New York Jets

Estimated Cap Space: Less than $2 million

Unrestricted Free Agents (11): Mark Brunell, Plaxico Burress, Nick Folk, Jim Leonhard, Kevin O'Connell, Brodney Pool, Sione Pouha, Donald Strickland, Bryan Thomas, LaDainian Tomlinson, Robert Turner

Restricted Free Agents (4): Marquice Cole, Aaron Maybin, Matthew Mulligan, Jamaal Westerman

After two seasons establishing himself as the biggest bust in a 2009 NFL Draft full of first-round disappointments, the light above Aaron Maybin's head turned on in his first season with the Jets. Maybin led Gang Green with six quarterback sacks and four forced fumbles, while earning $432,352.94 in base salary (14 weeks at the league minimum rate of $525,000). Maybin, who won't turn 24 until April, figures to get a substantial increase, possibly even to the $2.742 million "first round" tender level. Also earning $525,000 last season was Westerman, a former undrafted free agent who has been a core special teams player. He flashed some pass rush ability as well with 3.5 quarterback sacks. Westerman will likely receive an "original round" tender worth $1.26 million in 2012.

Franchise Tag Candidate: Retaining nose tackle Sione Pouha is a top priority for the Jets, but even if they had the space to do so, the club is unlikely to use the franchise tender, which is projected to be worth around $8 million, on the 33-year-old.

Potential Cap Casualties/Restructures: Six Jets are scheduled to receive over $7 million in total compensation in 2012 with cap numbers over $8 million. Three of those six -– Mark Sanchez, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie -– have seven-figure roster bonuses that could be combined with leftover amounts of reduced base salaries and converted to signing bonuses that would clear several million in cap room. Left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson is signed through 2017 and is scheduled to receive a $9.985 million base salary, which is fully guaranteed. Reducing his base salary to $700,000 and converting the $9.285 million into a signing bonus prorated over five seasons would reduce his cap number to $4.223 million, a savings of $7.428 million. The downside to that drastic a restructure on Ferguson is that it would add $1.857 million to his 2013-16 cap figures which are already at $8.917 million (2013), $8.617 million (2014), $9.717 million (2015) and $11.225 million (2016).

Posted by: Brian McIntyre on 14 Feb 2012

14 comments, Last at 18 Feb 2012, 10:40pm by mschuttke

Comments

1
by dedkrikit :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:59pm

Minor quibble:
Starting this up just after "Four Downs" with the AFC East in both kinda sucks for fans of teams in other divisions. Granted, each division will have the same amount of time devoted to it, with the same amount of "white space" around... but it'd be nice to start these (and future article series?) on different rotations.

Thank you all the same, though!

2
by tuluse :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 1:06pm

On the other hand doesn't it make sense to match the schedule so all the relevant information is posted around the same time?

3
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 1:34pm

Agreed. In general, more, faster, now!

12
by zlionsfan :: Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:04am

That's how I'd prefer to read it. Scaling up, I tend to read FOA team-by-team rather than topic-by-topic ... the same is generally true here. I'd prefer to get more offseason information about a team at one time, even if it means that teams that are of greater interest to me don't show up for a week or two.

4
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 2:04pm

Great stuff, a couple of queries. How much is the veteran minimum or to put it another way how much does it cost to sign a player to fill your roster? For example, the Pats have seventeen UFAs, how much cop room would be eaten by signing scrubs to get up to the roster limit.

Secondly, are the Jets are screwed cap wise or if they can carry out the necessary salary gymnastics, are they going to be screwed in the future?

OK, a third question; how does reducing Ferguson's cap figure of $9.985m to $4.223m give a cap saving of $7.428m and not $5.762m?

5
by tuluse :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 2:26pm

The minimum increases the longer a player has been in the league. I think the highest it gets is around 700-800k.

6
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 3:13pm

I thought that amount was offset for veterans under the last CBA, now I have no idea.

11
by zlionsfan :: Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:00am

A post on Steelers Depot shows the following for 2012:

$390K rookie minimum
$465K with one year experience
$540K with two years
$615K with three years
$700K with 4-6 years
$825K with 7-9 years
$925K with 10+ years

All minimums increase $15K per year through 2014.

7
by mschuttke :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 3:17pm

@Cuba: His base salary is the figure you listed, not his cap number. By reducing that salary via a pro-rated signing bonus, Ferguson would make the same amount of money but he would make less under the salary cap.

The Jets look to be in serious trouble from a cap health standpoint assuming they go down this restructuring path. Perhaps it is a matter of degree and being sure they restructure the right contracts though (i.e. players who are proven performers who will most likely still be productive in the years their cap number escalates). What I see though is that team has been constructed for a run in the 2009-2011 era and now roster holes are being exposed. In a way, it is a situation similar to the Redskins but the Jets are not blowing early round selections in the draft. That may be the problem though. They are lacking depth throughout the roster and have not had a ton of lower round draft choices that net some quality (and cheap) reserves in recent years.

I do not view this as a super dire situation yet and think some general retooling versus a total overhaul is needed. However, they stand on a cusp similar to the team I liked while growing up faced. The late 90's era 49ers were refusing to get younger and continually restructured contracts to save cap space. All that roster decay and mortgaging came due in the early part of the 2000's (after a brief spike in team performance). In that sense, the situation could more so become serious trouble if a more prudent, long-term roster construction plan is not followed this off-season in my humble opinion.

10
by tuluse :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 3:51pm

The late 90's era 49ers were refusing to get younger and continually restructured contracts to save cap space. All that roster decay and mortgaging came due in the early part of the 2000's

I think this is probably backwards. I doubt any team refuses to get younger, it's a byproduct of not being able to find young players to replace the older ones.

14
by mschuttke :: Sat, 02/18/2012 - 10:40pm

Good point. In this case though, draft choices were often spent on non-essential areas of the team as compared to the units that were aging and declining in performance.

8
by mschuttke :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 3:22pm

Although...thinking about my 'not blowing early round picks" comment in hindsight here...Sanchez is not looking to be that great of a pick (although not much was given up to move up to get him I would say) and we all know how Gholston turned out. Then I would add the jury is still out on Wilson and Wilkerson.

9
by Biebs :: Tue, 02/14/2012 - 3:35pm

Wilson and Wilkerson played pretty well, considering their position in the draft (#29),

but Sanchez (as of now) is a huge miss for two reasons
1. Missing on a franchise QB is almost always going to set a team back significantly

2. Missing on a top 6 pick (to throw Gholston in) in the old CBA is deadly. To miss 2 in a row is a costs a lot of money to fix.

However, I'm curious if the cap includes the leftover 2011, I know the reports were that the Jets had about $8.5M in leftover 2011 money that's counted towards 2011 cap (Obviously, they aren't the only ones)

The Jets were in the position of resigning 4 top-level players on their 2nd contract (Brick, Mangold, Harris, and Revis), they also signed Holmes to a very big deal that combined with Sanchez and Gholston has really hamstrung them because they probably have as many "top tier" contracts over the last 3 years as any team in the NFL.

13
by big_jgke :: Wed, 02/15/2012 - 3:07pm

Great freaking job by the Bills to kepp Shawne Merriman this year rather than giving Aaron Maybin a single chance to play the rush end position he was clearly meant for.