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» Seventh Day Adventure: Week 13

The biggest game this week is the Iron Bowl, where the playoff hopes of Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia hang in the balance.

27 Jan 2015

Under Pressure: Super Bowl Lines

by J.J. Cooper

There are lot of amazing aspects to the Patriots' extended run of excellence, but one that gets overlooked is just how little the Patriots spend on their offensive line in terms of draft picks.

Josh Kline started four games at guard this season for New England. He yo-yoed on to and off of the Patriots' 53-man roster last season, being released twice as he tried to stick as an undrafted free agent.

Kline shouldn't feel bad about what a few releases means for his long-term future. Dan Connolly was an undrafted free agent signed and cut by the Jaguars. The Patriots claimed him off waivers, then ended up releasing him and sending him to the practice squad. They eventually brought him back, and he has turned into a five-year starter for the club. Ryan Wendell was released twice by the Patriots before he became a three-year starter.

But those stories aren't all that unusual for the Patriots. New England spends money and picks on its tackles. But the rest of the line is pieced together from low-round picks, practice squad finds, and good coaching. Here's a look at how the offensive linemen were acquired.


How New England Built Its Offensive Line
Player
Role
Acquired
Marcus Cannon Swing T/G 2011 fifth-round pick
Dan Connolly Starting LG Undrafted free agent
Jordan Devey Backup G Undrafted free agent
Cameron Fleming Backup G 2014 fourth-round pick
Josh Kline Backup C/G Undrafted free agent
Nate Solder Starting LT 2011 first-round pick
Bryan Stork Starting C 2014 fourth-round pick
Sebastian Vollmer Starting RT 2009 second-round pick
Ryan Wendell Starting RG Undrafted free agent

Of the nine Patriots linemen to start a game this season, four were undrafted free agents. And in the early part of the season, the team completely whiffed on finding the right combination. The Patriots tried to shove Wendell to the bench, only to find that he was better than any of the younger players with whom they were trying to replace him.

Four weeks into the season, the Patriots handed Stork the center job, which also helped solidify things. Realizing Marcus Cannon was better off as a backup tackle than a starting guard helped as well.

As the lineup shuffled week by week and series by series, Brady was sacked 10 times in the first four weeks of the season. Even when he wasn't being sacked, he was often being forced to hurry throws.

But many of those sacks were being allowed by linemen who would end up on the bench. Fleming gave up 1.5 of the sacks, Cannon and Devey each gave up a sack as well. All together, Patriots centers and guards gave up 4.5 of the 10 sacks the Patriots allowed in the first four weeks. Leaky pass protection up the middle made it hard for Brady to step into throws as well.

Those problems were largely fixed by Week 5. From Week 5 to Week 15, the interior three of the Patriots' offensive line allowed one half-sack.

Injuries caused some issues late in the season, as a reshuffled line (with Josh Kline starting for Dan Connolly) gave up four sacks to the Jets in Week 16, and a rotating cast of backups gave up four more to the Bills in Week 17 in a game where starters were rested.

So the Patriots gave up 10 sacks with an unsettled line in the first four games, allowed only eight sacks over the next 10 games with a more settled line, then gave up eight in the final two games of the season. Altogether, the Patriots gave up 26 sacks (and a 4.4 percent sack rate that was second best in the league). But when you see what they did when they had their full starting line together, they were even better than that.

The other key to the Patriots' improvement is the improved play of Solder. The left tackle was beaten consistently, especially with speed rushes, in the first four weeks of the season. He gave up three sacks in those first four weeks, but he has given up only 2.5 sacks since and hasn't allowed a sack in the last five games.

The Patriots have found that they only believe in five of their linemen. When Stork was lost to a knee injury in the second quarter of the divisional playoff game against the Ravens, that's when the Patriots started to mess around with a revolving cast of eligible receivers in eligible spots, sometimes putting only four linemen on the field.

It's not clear yet if Stork will be back from the knee injury that forced him to miss the AFC Championship Game. He is listed as questionable. If he is out, Wendell moves from guard to center and Kline slides in at right guard.

If Stork can't play, or is severely limited, it will make an impact. But if he can play at close to 100 percent, the Patriots have proven over the second half of the season that they can protect Brady.

If there is a weak link in pass protection, it would be Solder. He gave up 5.5 of the Patriots' 26 sacks. But even he has been solid over the second half of the season. The Jets showed some skill at getting free rushers by cleverly disguising overload blitzes, which may provide a model for Seattle. Seattle likes to aggressively blitz as well -- 15 of its 36 regular-season sacks came with at least five pass rushers, and five of its sacks came when a rusher came free untouched.

The Seahawks defense was middle of the pack in Adjusted Sack Rate. Seattle has an exceptional defense, but they do not have an exceptional pass rush. Two of the sacks were gifts from the Mannings. On one, Eli Manning dropped the ball with no one around him; on another, Peyton Manning fell down untouched.

But Seattle does have plenty of speed coming off the edge with Bruce Irvin, Michael Bennett, O'Brien Schofield, and Cliff Avril. They don't get as much interior push, so the matchup to watch is Solder vs. the Seahawks' edge rushers.

Big Runs Come With A Few Sacks

New England does not have a sack in the playoffs yet. That will likely change in the Super Bowl. The Patriots will get opportunities to pressure Russell Wilson because of Wilson's speed. Wilson's mobility buys time, creates opportunities for big plays, and sometimes turns into big yardage on the ground. But it also means that occasionally he holds the ball too long and gets sacked.

If you have a mobile quarterback, that's a tradeoff teams have to expect. The more mobile the quarterback, the more likely he is to be sacked.

Using Pro Football Reference's play index, we looked at the 16 quarterbacks who finished a season with 600 or more rushing yards since the 1970 merger, and compared them to the 51 quarterbacks who finished a season with 10 or more starts and negative rushing yardage.

The quarterbacks with negative rushing yardage in a season were just as immobile as you would expect: Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, late-career Ken Stabler, Dan Fouts, late-career Kurt Warner, and late-career Steve DeBerg are among the quarterbacks in the study.

The mobile quarterbacks in the study are many of the best running quarterbacks of the past 40-plus years: Michael Vick, Randall Cunningham, Bobby Douglass, Cam Newton, Steve McNair, and Tim Tebow.

What quickly jumps out is how sacks are part of the package with running quarterbacks. The average sack rate for running quarterbacks was 8.6 percent. The sack rate for the immobile quarterbacks was 4.4 percent. The sack rate for the running quarterbacks was 6.9 percent or higher in 16 of the 17 seasons in the study (94 percent), and the lowest sack rate was Cam Newton's 6.3 percent in 2011. For the lead-footed quarterbacks, only eight of the 51 seasons in the study (15.7 percent) had sack rates of 6.9 percent or higher, and 41 of the 51 seasons had a lower sack rate than the lowest sack rate among the speedy quarterbacks.

Back in 2012, the Patriots didn't really revamp their defense to try to slow down Wilson's rushing ability, and they didn't really need to -- he rushed for 17 yards on five carries. Wilson's rushing is a much bigger part of the Seahawks' offense this year (his 284 DYAR on rushes is a Football Outsiders record and nearly twice as much as any other quarterback in the league). If the Patriots do decide to put a spy on Wilson at times this week, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower have the size and speed to do a credible job.

But Collins and Hightower should have an additional role in the passing game. They are a key part of a pretty mediocre Patriots pass rush. Rob Ninkovich led the Patriots with eight sacks, but three of his sacks came when he was left unblocked; a fourth came when he was the closest to Andrew Luck when the quarterback ran out of bounds eight seconds after the snap; and a fifth came after Kyle Orton held the ball in the pocket for more than four seconds. In other words, Ninkovich is not an edge rusher who wins lots of one-on-ones, but he does have an excellent motor.

The Patriots' other edge rusher, Chandler Jones, had a disappointing six sacks this year, and one of those came when Matt Cassel scrambled into him nearly five seconds after the snap.

Some of New England's best pressure comes when it sends Hightower or Collins on a blitz. Hightower finished the regular season with six sacks, and Collins added another four. Hightower has shown the ability to run through running backs. Collins showed similar power and a knack for making A-gap blitzes work.

For the Seahawks in pass protection, the weak links are on the right side in tackle Justin Britt and guard J.R. Sweezy. Britt missed the NFC Championship Game with a knee injury but is expected back for the Super Bowl. Britt gave up 6.5 sacks this season, worst on the team, so he's someone the Patriots will likely target, especially as he has to prove he's not limited by his knee injury.

No other Seahawks lineman gave up four sacks this year. The Seahawks line was responsible for only 15 sacks all season overall, so the protection generally was solid. Wilson was sacked five times on coverage sacks when he held the ball for 3.7 seconds or longer. Another two sacks came when he just dropped the ball. Seven more came when he tried to run and was caught before the line of scrimmage, and another five came when a rusher was left untouched.

Posted by: J.J. Cooper on 27 Jan 2015

23 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2015, 5:36am by Insancipitory

Comments

1
by jeffd :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 4:28pm

The claims about Seattle's line in pass protection do not pass my sniff test. I watched the Seahawks in every game this year and my impression is that they were terrible in pass blocking, but Wilson was very good about getting rid of the ball / scrambling / avoiding sacks.

Is there any charting data available that might back up the impression of my eyes? How many times was Wilson hit or hurried?

3
by Perfundle :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 5:04pm

A better QB doesn't need to scramble or avoid sacks because the ball is already out by then, even if it's an intentional throwaway. Wilson is definitely responsible for a large number of the pressures, hits and sacks.

4
by jeffd :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 5:43pm

That may be the case, but I'd like to see actual evidence. One thing that might be interesting is if you could measure the time between the snap and the time before Wilson has to move to evade pressure.

14
by Roch Bear :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 8:43pm

I'd luv to see that too. It should, I think, be THE measure of OL pass protection.

5
by pablohoney :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 5:53pm

I think the discrepancy is because the article is only using sacks to measure pressure. I just checked Pro Football Focus which tracks hurries/hits and ignores sacks that they attributed to QB or coverage, and according to their (unofficial) stats, Seattle's line ranked 26th in pass blocking efficiency. I agree with the article that Wilson causes a lot of his own sacks by holding onto the ball too long or scrambling into defenders, but at the same time I believe PFF's metric that Seattle's o-line gives up a lot of pressures.

6
by Perfundle :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 6:20pm

However, PFF has them ranked 18th in pass blocking efficiency here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/01/08/2014-pff-offensive-line...

I'm not sure if they're measuring different things, but that's a pretty large discrepancy.

11
by pablohoney :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 7:07pm

That list is their "offensive line rankings" which includes run blocking and penalty ratings. I was looking at their "pass blocking efficiency" page which is one of their (subscription) stats and measures the ratio of passing plays to sacks/hits/hurries.

12
by Perfundle :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 7:36pm

19. Seattle Seahawks (27th)

Pass Block Ranking: 18th, Run Blocking Ranking: 17th, Penalties Ranking: 30th

You said the pass blocking efficiency ranking ignores sacks that are the QB's fault. Does it ignore hurries and hits that are the QB's fault too? Because if it doesn't that would explain it, because Wilson is responsible for a lot of those as well.

13
by pablohoney :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 7:46pm

Oh, right. That ranking must be based on cumulative o-line pass grade (Seattle currently ranks 17th now but that includes playoff games). Since their grades allegedly take into account how quickly pressure comes, that would seem to be another indicator that Wilson bears significant blame for their poor raw pressure numbers.

2
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 4:43pm

GB had luck dropping a bunch of spies to keep Wilson from running, but that plan involved Matthews spying and Peppers creating pressure on a 3 or 4-man rush.

Does NE have the front 7 talent to copy that?

9
by duh :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 6:55pm

My guess is that the guy they would most want to spy with (Collins) is also the guy they want to use in coverage. Hightower seems to be a liability in coverage but I suspect he isn't quite quick agile enough to spy Wilson. I think that is the real dilemma for the pats D.

15
by dryheat :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 10:22pm

We'll, Jonathan Casillas is the third LB when they use three. He seems to be the type to spy Wilson, but that takes a DB off the field. Tavon Wilson might be another option.

7
by jacobk :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 6:38pm

"Seattle likes to blitz" -- how often do the Seahawks send pressure compared to the league average?

8
by Perfundle :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 6:42pm

They don't like to blitz much, but I think they're near the top of the league at being successful at it, especially against Kaepernick.

10
by duh :: Tue, 01/27/2015 - 7:00pm

Regarding Chandler Jones, he missed 6 games due to injury and was spotted the first week back so he only started 9 games So while the total number of sacks was disappointing some context would be helpful.

17
by PaddyPat :: Wed, 01/28/2015 - 1:51am

He also seemed limited at times, even when he did play.

16
by hawkwind :: Wed, 01/28/2015 - 1:02am

"Seattle likes to aggressively blitz as well -- 15 of its 36 regular-season sacks came with at least five pass rushers, and five of its sacks came when a rusher came free untouched."

Just out of curiosity, is this a lot?

18
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 01/28/2015 - 10:30am

Is NWE's line makeup disproportionate?

Their tackles are a 1st, a 2nd, and a 5th. Their center is a 4th. Their guards were undrafted, which is nifty, but which doesn't seem surprising, given it's the most fungible position on the line, and often made up of failed tackles.

19
by bingo762 :: Wed, 01/28/2015 - 12:54pm

If FO is gonna post an article about O-Lines, why isn't Muth writing it?

21
by dryheat :: Wed, 01/28/2015 - 2:20pm

Yeah....while cognizant of the time and effort involved (and also not dismissing this author's appreciated effort), with a two-week span between games, I would have loved it if Ben couldv've watched two games of each team and given us some thoughts. It likely would have been the most intelligent NFL-related thing I read between games.

23
by Insancipitory :: Thu, 01/29/2015 - 5:36am

Requisite 3 days of mourning after seeing rivals logo painted on his homefield.

20
by mehllageman56 :: Wed, 01/28/2015 - 1:02pm

One thing about the Jets and Bills: they have great interior pass rushers, The Jets with Richardson and Wilkerson, and the Bills with both Williamses. That's not something Seattle can match.

22
by CaffeineMan :: Wed, 01/28/2015 - 3:27pm

Yes, I'm surprised more people aren't mentioning this, although I think Andy Benoit did. The speed rushers aren't as much of a problem for the Pats as the rush up the middle. I think the biggest issue won't be whether Brady has time to throw, it's whether anyone will be open.