by Bill Connelly

A week ago, I wrote this:

[I]f Colt McCoy wins the Heisman this year, you can thank the constantly successful tightrope act of thriving on passing downs. Yet again, Texas was better on passing downs than non-passing downs, and while you have to worry that the magic could suddenly, violently disappear (it did for Chase Daniel for about six quarters, long enough to kill his Heisman chances and his team's title chances), who knows, it might not. In that regard, the Texas Tech game is the biggest challenge remaining on the regular season schedule. Every time Texas faces a third-and-8 or third-and-10, Jones AT&T Stadium will be three shades of crazy, and that, combined with the fact that the Red Raider pass rush really is not too shabby, could spell trouble.

As you'll see in the Varsity Numbers Box Score of UT-Tech below, the magic did indeed "suddenly, violently disappear."

In the end, there were three main reasons Texas lost in Lubbock Saturday night:

• Texas Tech came out aflame, and Texas came out tired. Texas started looking tired at the end of the Oklahoma State game, and the murderer's row of four straight marquee games against top teams seemed to have finally caught up to them. Power to them for keeping it close (you look at the overall EqPts numbers, and you realize Texas was lucky to get as close as they were), but the flat start put them in a deep hole.
• Texas Tech was much better in the trenches than just about anybody thought they would be. The Red Raider offensive line is not only gigantic but very experienced. They protected Graham Harrell against Texas' stout line better than anybody else has; of course, it helps that Brian Orakpo got hurt. Meanwhile, Texas Tech's defensive line was amped and active. Sophomore Colby Whitlock has improved by leaps and bounds this season.
• Passing downs absolutely murdered Texas. There is no other way to put it. In Texas' first four conference games, their passing downs S&P was better than their non-passing downs S&P three times.

As the Rolling Stones (or Lil Wayne) might say, play with fire (enough times), you get burned.

Disproportionality

With this in mind, it might behoove us to take a look at the other teams at the top of the BCS rankings, which ones seem to be having disproportionate success on passing downs, and what that could mean for the rest of their schedules.

(And once again, the data is only complete for BCS teams, so for now we're going to skip over No. 8 Utah and No. 10 Boise State. And by the way, I love that there are four non-BCS teams in the Top 15.)

Now let's look at these teams' remaining opponents. Opponents in bold have allowed sub-.500 S&P on passing downs:

Alabama

• at LSU (Passing downs S&P allowed: 0.684)
• Mississippi State (0.591)
• Auburn (0.533)

Texas Tech

• Oklahoma State (0.562)
• at Oklahoma (0.468)
• Baylor (0.706)

Penn State

• at Iowa (0.385)
• Indiana (0.612)
• Michigan State (0.603)

Texas

• Baylor (0.706)
• at Kansas (0.665)
• Texas A&M (0.707)

Florida

• at Vanderbilt (0.552)
• South Carolina (0.461)
• The Citadel (N/A)
• at Florida State (0.405)

Oklahoma

• at Texas A&M (0.707)
• Texas Tech (0.455)
• at Oklahoma State (0.562)

USC

• California (0.486)
• at Stanford (0.708)
• Notre Dame (0.556)
• at UCLA (0.639)

Oklahoma State

• at Texas Tech (0.455)
• at Colorado (0.623)
• Oklahoma (0.468)

Iowa's defense is the second best among BCS teams in terms of shutting down teams on passing downs. Meanwhile, Penn State has a rather high ratio of passing downs success to non-passing downs success (the national ratio is 0.802). And they're hosting Penn State this weekend. Consider that an upset alert.

Summary

The list of teams with the highest proportion of passing downs success to non-passing downs success includes some with awful offenses (Wake Forest, Arkansas, Auburn, Syracuse) who have high proportions only because neither S&P number is very good; however, the list also includes a lot of teams who simply have good offenses and good quarterbacks (Texas, USC, Texas Tech, Penn State). Having a high proportion here does not necessarily mean something bad. It just means that you probably cannot count on passing downs success for all 12 (or 13, or 14) games of a given season. At some point the magic will run out, at least temporarily, and you will find yards and points a lot harder to come by.

It also means that both teams playing in Lubbock Saturday night (Texas Tech and Oklahoma State) have outstanding passing downs defenses, and whoever can convert on second-and-9 or third-and-7 is going to win the game.

Posted by: Bill Connelly on 07 Nov 2008

4 comments, Last at 10 Nov 2008, 9:55am by Rover