Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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» OFI: SEC Surprises

In an opening week where even the elite teams in college football looked mortal, the SEC had two big surprises in Texas A&M and Georgia defeating their South Carolinian opponents by big scores.

03 Sep 2010

Varsity Numbers: Updated 2010 Win Projections

by Bill Connelly

First things first: Here is the Seventh Day Adventure podcast that was missing from yesterday's SDA column. I discuss the Boise State-Virginia Tech clash with the editors of two great blogs, Gobbler Country and One Bronco Nation Under God. In future weeks that don't include Internet outages, this will be part of SDA.

As with the data tables yesterday, feel free to leave feedback in the comments section regarding this podcast and how we could improve it in the future. As soon as possible, we will get this on iTunes.

F/+ Top 120

I can't stop tinkering. It's in my nature. I'm always looking to tweak things to make them slightly better. That being the case, I was going to feel the need to post an updated version of FO's Projected F/+ even if nobody in the country had gotten injured or suspended since Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 was released. Before we unveil the up-to-date Top 120, I should detail what has changed in the formulas since FOA 2010:

  • A Coach Factor estimate was added in accordance with the recent Varsity Numbers discussion of coaching changes and coaching types.
  • An ABC Index adjustment was added in accordance with last week's Varsity Numbers discussion of late-season improvement.
  • Five-year history was added back into the formulas. For the most part, three- and four-year performance was what made the initial cut, but the correlations for five-year history are quite high, and they were eased into the formulas.
  • A bit more was added to the formulas relating to Draft Points lost and their comparison to what a team typically loses in a given year. (In other words, if you lost more big talent to the draft than what you normally lose, then you are likely to regress at least slightly.) This was already a factor in the formulas; now it is a stronger one.
  • BCS and non-BCS teams were treated as two separate entities. The projection factors have different impacts on teams from major and mid-major conferences, so that was taken into account here.

Few teams made huge moves when all was said and done (at least outside of the 60-90 range, where teams are significantly bunched together), but without further ado, here is your new Projected F/+ list.

2010 Updated F/+ Projections
Rk Team Proj.
F/+
Proj.
Mean Wins
Proj. Mean
Conf. Wins
Proj. SOS SOS
Rk
1 Florida 250.5 10.5 6.8 0.218 10
2 Alabama 246.9 10.0 6.3 0.207 7
3 Texas 240.5 10.4 6.5 0.422 48
4 Ohio State 239.4 10.3 6.5 0.412 45
5 Virginia Tech 238.9 10.2 6.6 0.438 51
6 Oklahoma 235.9 9.6 6.3 0.365 37
7 TCU 235.7 11.3 7.5 0.779 107
8 Penn State 233.6 9.2 6.1 0.200 5
9 Oregon 232.5 9.7 7.2 0.467 56
10 LSU 229.6 8.1 4.7 0.134 2
11 Miami-FL 228.7 8.0 5.4 0.218 11
12 USC 226.2 9.8 6.6 0.493 62
13 Iowa 226.1 8.8 5.3 0.440 52
14 Clemson 226.0 8.5 5.3 0.391 39
15 Nebraska 225.8 9.6 5.8 0.586 80
16 Boise State 225.1 10.6 7.6 0.638 86
17 Arkansas 224.0 7.9 4.3 0.314 29
18 Texas Tech 223.6 8.9 5.1 0.421 47
19 Wisconsin 223.0 8.7 4.9 0.462 54
20 Tennessee 223.0 7.3 3.9 0.209 8
Rk Team Proj.
F/+
Proj.
Mean Wins
Proj. Mean
Conf. Wins
Proj. SOS SOS
Rk
21 Auburn 222.6 7.9 4.4 0.222 12
22 Pittsburgh 221.8 8.2 4.7 0.482 58
23 Georgia Tech 221.7 7.6 4.6 0.289 23
24 Cincinnati 221.2 8.7 4.8 0.547 74
25 Georgia 221.0 7.6 4.2 0.259 16
26 Florida State 220.8 7.2 5.1 0.231 14
27 West Virginia 220.7 8.7 4.8 0.503 67
28 South Carolina 218.9 6.7 3.7 0.139 3
29 BYU 217.6 8.9 6.0 0.502 65
30 North Carolina 217.5 6.8 4.0 0.311 28
31 Ole Miss 217.5 7.4 3.6 0.205 6
32 Notre Dame 216.2 7.9 0.482 59
33 Boston College 215.3 7.8 4.5 0.509 70
34 Oklahoma State 214.7 7.5 3.9 0.324 30
35 Oregon State 214.3 6.3 5.0 0.300 25
36 Michigan State 213.8 7.5 4.1 0.395 42
37 Stanford 213.6 7.0 4.9 0.420 46
38 Arizona 213.0 7.4 5.2 0.430 50
39 Michigan 212.9 6.5 3.6 0.261 18
40 Connecticut 211.1 7.4 3.5 0.624 84
Rk Team Proj.
F/+
Proj.
Mean Wins
Proj. Mean
Conf. Wins
Proj. SOS SOS
Rk
41 Missouri 210.8 7.4 3.9 0.475 57
42 Texas A&M 210.3 6.2 3.1 0.278 20
43 California 210.1 7.1 4.7 0.493 61
44 Utah 209.8 7.8 5.5 0.582 78
45 Mississippi State 209.6 6.0 2.7 0.099 1
46 Purdue 209.6 7.0 4.0 0.400 44
47 South Florida 207.5 6.5 3.4 0.191 4
48 Virginia 207.0 6.1 3.0 0.278 21
49 UCLA 205.9 5.3 4.0 0.282 22
50 Wake Forest 205.9 5.8 3.2 0.358 35
51 Kansas 204.8 6.9 4.1 0.602 82
52 Minnesota 204.6 5.2 2.5 0.356 34
53 Kentucky 204.6 5.9 2.5 0.211 9
54 Rutgers 203.5 6.9 2.8 0.504 68
55 Arizona State 202.5 5.5 3.4 0.390 38
56 Air Force 202.4 7.6 4.9 0.392 40
57 Northwestern 201.6 6.0 2.9 0.444 53
58 Washington 201.2 4.6 3.5 0.326 32
59 Houston 201.2 8.0 6.1 0.730 99
60 Colorado 199.1 5.0 3.0 0.363 36
Rk Team Proj.
F/+
Proj.
Mean Wins
Proj. Mean
Conf. Wins
Proj. SOS SOS
Rk
61 Illinois 198.8 5.1 2.5 0.397 43
62 Maryland 198.6 5.3 2.8 0.393 41
63 NC State 198.4 4.0 1.9 0.354 33
64 Navy 197.7 7.1 0.814 112
65 Baylor 197.2 5.0 2.4 0.236 15
66 East Carolina 196.9 6.8 5.4 0.526 71
67 Syracuse 196.6 5.3 2.0 0.527 72
68 Louisville 196.6 5.3 2.0 0.550 76
69 Southern Miss 196.4 7.3 5.2 0.807 111
70 Central Michigan 195.9 7.5 5.9 0.585 79
71 Nevada 195.4 8.0 5.1 0.720 95
72 Kansas State 194.7 4.9 2.1 0.550 75
73 Troy 194.6 7.8 6.2 0.749 102
74 Indiana 194.1 5.1 1.7 0.301 26
75 Iowa State 193.0 4.0 1.9 0.226 13
76 Fresno State 192.7 6.9 5.1 0.627 85
77 Duke 191.5 3.6 1.5 0.263 19
78 Central Florida 191.4 7.1 4.8 0.930 120
79 Vanderbilt 191.4 2.9 1.0 0.260 17
80 Tulsa 190.7 6.6 4.7 0.758 103
Rk Team Proj.
F/+
Proj.
Mean Wins
Proj. Mean
Conf. Wins
Proj. SOS SOS
Rk
81 Middle Tennessee 190.0 8.1 6.0 0.790 108
82 Marshall 187.8 5.5 4.3 0.539 73
83 Bowling Green 187.3 5.9 4.6 0.867 116
84 Northern Illinois 186.7 6.6 5.0 0.908 118
85 Ohio 186.2 7.2 5.1 0.589 81
86 Temple 185.8 6.3 4.4 0.645 88
87 Colorado State 185.7 4.9 3.0 0.664 89
88 Louisiana Tech 185.4 6.3 4.4 0.723 97
89 Hawaii 183.2 6.6 4.1 0.676 91
90 UAB 183.0 5.1 3.8 0.742 101
91 SMU 182.7 5.0 3.9 0.641 87
92 Buffalo 181.6 5.9 4.2 0.883 117
93 UTEP 180.8 6.1 3.9 0.769 105
94 Toledo 178.8 4.7 3.8 0.688 93
95 Wyoming 178.6 3.7 2.4 0.294 24
96 Utah State 178.2 4.9 3.5 0.487 60
97 UNLV 178.1 3.5 2.3 0.497 64
98 New Mexico 177.6 3.5 2.2 0.426 49
99 Ball State 177.4 5.8 3.8 0.721 96
100 Western Michigan 177.3 5.5 3.7 0.776 106
Rk Team Proj.
F/+
Proj.
Mean Wins
Proj. Mean
Conf. Wins
Proj. SOS SOS
Rk
101 San Diego State 176.8 4.5 2.2 0.508 69
102 Memphis 176.4 2.9 2.2 0.799 110
103 Akron 175.1 4.8 3.4 0.916 119
104 Florida Atlantic 174.2 4.3 3.9 0.496 63
105 Kent State 174.0 4.9 3.2 0.608 83
106 Miami-OH 174.0 3.7 3.2 0.310 27
107 Idaho 173.7 4.8 2.7 0.682 92
108 UL-Monroe 172.6 4.7 3.7 0.502 66
109 Arkansas State 172.1 4.1 3.6 0.792 109
110 North Texas 171.8 5.0 3.6 0.758 104
111 UL-Lafayette 170.1 3.5 3.2 0.676 90
112 Florida International 170.0 3.6 3.3 0.732 100
113 Army 169.2 4.0 0.836 114
114 San Jose State 167.7 4.0 2.1 0.325 31
115 Washington State 167.0 1.6 0.4 0.465 55
116 Rice 166.8 2.4 1.8 0.728 98
117 Tulane 166.2 3.5 1.9 0.846 115
118 Western Kentucky 163.7 2.8 2.5 0.702 94
119 Eastern Michigan 161.3 2.3 1.7 0.561 77
120 New Mexico State 160.0 2.3 1.5 0.817 113

We have a new No. 1! With each tweak of the formula, Florida and Alabama traded the top spot back and forth. In the end, the Gators got the nod, but a likely SEC championship game between the two schools is still projected as almost completely dead even.

Biggest Movers

As mentioned, a handful of teams did move significantly.

Kansas State: +16 (88th to 72nd). The addition of that fifth year of historical play (2005) helped the Wildcats' cause slightly, as did the fact that coaches entering their second year with a team typically see improvement (and for technical purposes, Bill Snyder is entering his "second" season). Plus, teams ranked between 70 and 90 were extremely close together. This does not have a significant impact on their projected wins and losses, however.

Iowa State: +14 (89th to 75th). Iowa State almost won the Big 12 North in 2005, so the fifth year helps them as well. Plus, like Kansas State, their head coach is entering his second year.

Utah State: +10 (106th to 96th). The Aggies also have a second-year coach, plus the ABC Index helps them. They were a much better team at the end of 2009 than they were at the beginning.

Rutgers: +9 (63rd to 54th). The Scarlet Knights did not lose a ton to the draft, and they were aided by a strong late-season performance. ABC Index is their friend.

Syracuse: +9 (76th to 67th). They fall into the same department as Kansas State and Iowa State. The fifth year helps, as does the magical second year for Doug Marrone.

These teams saw the most significant rises in the rankings, but three Top 25 teams improved their standing as well.

Auburn. Again, five-year history combined with Gene Chizik's second season helped Auburn rise from 27th to 21st.

Nebraska. Always be closing. Nebraska's late-season improvement, combined with the fifth year of historical data and Bo Pelini's third season (usually another good one for a coach) resulted in Nebraska jumping from 21st to 15th.

Georgia Tech. Same as Nebraska. ABC Index + coach entering third season = good things. In this case, "good things" is moving from 28th to 23rd.

Rankings, of course, are a zero-sum game. If some rise, some must fall. Here are the teams who took the biggest tumbles:

  • Temple: -12 (74th to 86th)
  • Kent State: -10 (95th to 105th)
  • Navy: -10 (54th to 64th)
  • SMU: -9 (82nd to 91st)
  • Houston: -9 (50th to 59th)

All five of these teams were hurt by the five-year history addition. Plus, Kent State has a coach entering his seventh season in a stagnant situation (usually, you are what you are at that point), and SMU was dinged at least a hair by losing just their second draft pick in the last five seasons.

Here are some of the higher-ranked teams who fell:

Ole Miss (25th to 31st). The addition of the fifth year hurt, as did the loss of four draft picks.

Georgia (19th to 25th). ABC Index did Georgia no favors. They did not finish 2009 tremendously strong.

South Carolina (23rd to 28th). The Gamecocks have lost more talent than they were accustomed to in the last two years (not necessarily a bad thing), and Steve Spurrier is in a bit of a stagnant situation entering his sixth season. It is harder to make big breakthroughs after you have been at a school for more than one recruiting cycle. That said, they sure did look great last night.

North Carolina. Five-year history obviously did not help the Heels, but they fell primarily because of the estimated impact of the upcoming defensive suspensions they are likely to suffer.

Again, nobody's win expectations changed drastically, and I don't want to overstate the impact the five-year history factor had -- most of the time, if a team rose or fell a few spots, it was as much because they were bunched together with other teams. Only four teams are now projected to win at least 1.0 more games: Kansas State (1.3), Iowa State (1.2), Syracuse (1.1) and Mississippi State (1.0). Meanwhile, only two teams are projected to win at least 1.0 fewer games: Boston College (-1.1) and USC (-1.3).

Bowl Projections

Obviously with the amount of politics that goes into bowl selections, it is a fool's errand to predict who is going to which bowls. But when did I ever say I wasn't a complete fool?

First, here are your conference title game matchups.

Conference Championships

  • SEC: Florida def. Alabama
  • Big 12: Texas def. Nebraska
  • ACC: Virginia Tech def. Clemson
  • Conference USA: Houston def. East Carolina
  • MAC: Central Michigan def. Ohio

Now, here are the bowls.

2010-11 Bowl Schedule and Projections
Date Bowl Proj. Matchup
Dec. 18 New Mexico Bowl Louisiana Tech vs Temple
Dec. 18 UDrove Humanitarian Bowl Fresno State vs Northern Illinois
Dec. 18 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Tulsa vs Troy
Dec. 21 Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl Central Florida vs South Florida
Dec. 22 Maaco Bowl Las Vegas Oregon State vs Utah
Dec. 23 SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs BYU
Dec. 24 Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Hawaii vs UTEP
Dec. 26 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Northwestern vs Central Michigan
Dec. 27 Advocare V100 Independence Bowl North Carolina vs Air Force
Dec. 28 Champs Sports Bowl Notre Dame vs Miami-FL
Dec. 28 Insight Bowl Oklahoma State vs Michigan State
Dec. 29 EagleBank Bowl Virginia vs East Carolina
Dec. 29 Texas Bowl Texas A&M vs Purdue
Dec. 29 Valero Alamo Bowl Arizona vs Texas Tech
Dec. 30 Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl Southern Miss vs Wake Forest
Dec. 30 New Era Pinstripe Bowl Kansas vs Pittsburgh
Dec. 30 Franklin Music City Bowl Ole Miss vs Boston College
Dec. 30 Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl California vs Missouri
Dec. 31 Meineke Car Care Bowl Georgia Tech vs West Virginia
Dec. 31 Hyundai Sun Bowl Florida State vs Stanford
Dec. 31 AutoZone Liberty Bowl Houston vs South Carolina
Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Bowl Clemson vs Tennessee
Jan. 1 Dallas Football Classic Rutgers vs Michigan
Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Iowa vs Auburn
Jan. 1 Capital One Bowl Georgia vs Penn State
Jan. 1 Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Wisconsin vs Arkansas
Jan. 6 GMAC Bowl Ohio vs Middle Tennesseee
Jan. 7 AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic Nebraska vs LSU
Jan. 8 Birmingham Bowl Mississippi State vs Connecticut
Jan. 9 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Kentucky vs Nevada
2010-11 BCS Bowl Schedule and Projections
Jan. 1 Rose Bowl Game Ohio State vs Oregon
Jan. 1 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma vs Boise State
Jan. 3 Discover Orange Bowl Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati
Jan. 4 Allstate Sugar Bowl Alabama vs TCU
Jan. 10 2011 Tostitos BCS National Championship Game Florida vs Texas

It appears your primary BCS Championship candidates for 2010 are rather unsurprising: 1) the winner of the second Alabama-Florida matchup (i.e. the SEC Championship), 2) Texas, 3) Ohio State, 4) TCU (if they can get to 12 wins instead of 11), and 5) Boise State (if they beat Virginia Tech).

Here are the next ten major conference teams in terms of projected mean wins. In theory, these are teams who have the best chance of crashing the BCS party. This list does not include USC, which is banned from the postseason.

  • Virginia Tech (10.2)
  • Oregon (9.7)
  • Oklahoma (9.6)
  • Nebraska (9.6)
  • Penn State (9.2)
  • Texas Tech (8.9)
  • Iowa (8.8)
  • Wisconsin (8.7)
  • Cincinnati (8.7)
  • West Virginia (8.7)

Random Golf Clap

To Joe Paterno, for figuring out another "first" to check off the list. It appears that when Penn State opens its season against Chronic Fatigue University (OK, Youngstown State), they will be doing so with true freshman Robert Bolden behind center. He is the first true freshman ever to start the season as No. 1 quarterback and the first true freshman to start a game for JoePa since 1992. When you have worked at the same place since John Snyder was the Secretary of the Treasury and I Love Lucy was still in pre-production, it is difficult to find ways to spice things up. Difficult, but apparently not impossible.

Random Mini-Rant

You know what? No rants this week. College football is back. Life is good.

Random Reasons to Love College Football

The pockets of passion this sport produces are hard to match. College football led to large, happy gatherings of fans in places like Ames, Winston-Salem, and Piscataway last night. Meanwhile, good-sized crowds in places like Murfreesboro and Birmingham went home sad. It's hard for any other sport to match those pockets of passion.

Random Playlist

In honor of the current mood of most college football lovers.

"Happy," by Jenny Lewis & the Watson Twins
"Happy," by the Rolling Stones
"Happy Jack," by The Who
"I Hope You're Happy Now," by Elvis Costello
"It's Not the Only Way to Feel Happy," by Field Music
"Lovely Cruise," by Jimmy Buffett
"Wonderful," by The Beta Band
"Wonderful," by Pat McGee Band
"Wonderful Place," by N*E*R*D
"You've Made Me So Very Happy," by Blood, Sweat & Tears

Upset Watch

East Carolina over Tulsa. Spread: ECU +8.5 | F/+ Projection: ECU by 8.2. I have no idea why Tulsa is favored by eight points on the road against the defending Conference USA champion, but they are. And therefore, this qualifies as an upset.

Cincinnati over Fresno State. Spread: Cincy +3 | F/+ Projection: Cincy by 17.9. The projection itself might be a little strong and the trip itself a little long, but Cincinnati still has plenty of riches on the offensive side of the ball, and they should be able to overcome the host Bulldogs.

Virginia Tech over Boise State. Spread: Va. Tech +2 | F/+ Projection: Va. Tech by 10.4. This is another projection that is a bit too far in the underdog's favor, but Virginia Tech is a very, very strong team. Boise State has the clear experience advantage, and as our friend from Gobbler Country referenced in the SDA podcast, playing in the first game of the season favors the Broncos. But the F/+ projections love the Hokies. Consider this an early test of both two Top 10 teams and the projections themselves.

Louisville over Kentucky. Spread: Kentucky -3 | F/+ Projection: Kentucky by 2.5. Kentucky is projected to hold on for the win here, but it could be, as Lee Corso is fond of saying, closer than the experts think (to the extent that 'experts' are thinking about this game, anyway). Teams under first-year coaches are a bit of a crapshoot, but if Charlie Strong can push the right buttons, Louisville does still have some semblance of talent and athleticism that was misplaced and misguided in the Steve Kragthorpe era.

For full F/+ projections, go here.

Closing Thoughts

Honestly, every college football fan and non-fan should read and re-read Spencer Hall's wonderful "Football Season Is Over, Football Season Has Begun" post at EDSBS. It highlights everything that makes this sport so special, and I struggle to even describe how good it is. Just read it, and get ready for an exhilarating four months of college football.

Posted by: Bill Connelly on 03 Sep 2010

15 comments, Last at 06 Sep 2010, 2:54am by Brendan Scolari

Comments

1
by Jeff Fogle :: Fri, 09/03/2010 - 2:56pm

My guess at the market's thoughts on East Carolina/Tulsa:

*Tulsa returns 9 starters on offense (using Athlon for returning starter stuff, so that may not be fresh), including QB CJ Kinne.

*Tulsa's offense ranked 35th nationally last year in total offense (using raw stats, not S+P adjustments...figuring the market is looking at raw stats)

*East Carolina returns only 2 starters on defense

*East Carolina ranked 71th nationally in total defense last year.

Tulsa will be in position to do what they want on offense. East Carolina has a new quarterback and only 4 starters back on offense...meaning they may have trouble playing catch up.

*Ruffin McNeill is the new EC coach, and he may be seen as a guy who's in over his head as a program leader.

*If you're into revenge, Tulsa has revenge off a 44-17 home loss last year that came the week after the 46-45 heartbreaker to Houston that was being replayed again yesterday on CBSC or whatever that channel is.

In market terms, it's meaningful that the line has stayed above a TD. There's not sharp sentiment on the home dog. They would have jumped in at a price that high because it's not like the public is going to drive the line up any higher in a CUSA game they're not going to watch.

Would have to say the market is seeing East Carolina as one of the biggest collapses of the year, with the transition from Skip Holtz to Ruffin McNeill, the loss of Pinkney at QB, and the general loss of starters from last year.

You may not have the time...but if you do, what's the case for EC by 8.2, which is what the F+ projection is?

2
by cfn_ms :: Fri, 09/03/2010 - 5:23pm

My sense is that they pay a lot more attention to "standard program performance" than they do returning starters. I'm guessing that an extreme outlier situation like ECU having less than 10 starters returning on offense/defense combined probably isn't getting the correct weight in the model.

I would be quite curious to hear about how their projections have done on the Thursday games. I don't think they've had a history of looking back at last week's projections in a Tuesday short column, but if they ever started something like that up, I'd find that to be extremely interesting.

13
by aa7596 (not verified) :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 7:08pm

Why would McNeill be "seen as a guy who's in over his head?" (Not saying the original poster believes that; just wondering why that opinion might be out there.)

14
by Jeff Fogle :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 9:09pm

My read anyway:

*The market is generally skeptical of new head coaches.

*When there's an exception, it's more in the direction of a young hotshot who's climbing the ladder quickly (think of Urban Meyer as he was climbing the ladder), rather than a guy who's been at the same place for a long time (McNeill spent the last 10 years at Tech as an assistant).

*McNeill doesn't have head coaching experience at the college level.

*McNeill worked on the defense for Tech, which was generally considered a weakness during his tenure (which is a bit unfair because his offense was creating fast break games).

*Tech had first crack at McNeill after he was the interim coach in their bowl game. They went in another direction.

*East Carolina had preferred Rick Stockstill of Middle Tennessee, but Stockstill decided to stay put. The market is likely to be pessimistic about a "second" choice (or lower).

*McNeill was hired as a "returning son" head coach, meaning he went to EC as a student, now he's come back to coach. The "climbing the ladder" guys get more respect than the "well, maybe having an alumnus will work out" strategy.

My read is that the market starts out skeptical with a few occasional exceptions...then they let results determine their future perceptions. The fact that the market priced in a BIG drop for EC this year based on last year's standard at least suggests skepticism about the new head coach.

Some information from above came from this article from ESPN at the time of the hiring:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4849823

3
by kpickles :: Fri, 09/03/2010 - 8:15pm

any chance of an off/def breakdown?

4
by escoot :: Sat, 09/04/2010 - 12:41am

Even if its all relative, why the change in the F+ ratings where 200 is about the mean now versus using positive and negative values previously in FOA 2010 Almanac?

6
by Bill Connelly :: Sat, 09/04/2010 - 11:54pm

My mistake. It's always based on 200 = average, but I forgot to change it to the +/- % before posting.

5
by cfn_ms :: Sat, 09/04/2010 - 5:21pm

is Florida still #1? That showing agianst a bad MiamiOH team was AWFUL IMO.

9
by Brendan Scolari :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 3:33pm

Agreed, their offensive performance was ridiculous.

7
by Jeff Fogle :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 12:11am

Hopefully your computer doesn't blow a gasket with:

#1 in a yardage dead heat at home with #106
#6 in a yardage dead heat at home with #96
#12 getting outgained by more than 60 by #89

Mine might...

10
by Brendan Scolari :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 3:39pm

That USC line is a little misleading, they only ran 62 offensive plays to Hawaii's 79 (and Hawaii had 22 more pass attempts). USC actually gained 8.5 yards per play to Hawaii's 7.4 yards per play so they did outplay them. However, I hope that USC's atrocious pass defense can be mostly attributed to the uniqueness of Hawaii's spread, otherwise it's likely going to be a long season.

11
by Jeff Fogle :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 4:22pm

Yup, and Florida was at 3.8 to 3.1 in YPP by my count.

Was expecting more on defense from USC given how much work they had to do after betting blistered by teams like Oregon and Stanford last year. Should have been a point of emphasis in the offseason. Hawaii's spread shouldn't be so unique that they pop 588 yards on somebody like USC.

Great offensive performance from USC though...extremely sharp.

15
by Brendan Scolari :: Mon, 09/06/2010 - 2:54am

Agreed on all counts.

8
by FireOmarTomlin :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 9:42am

I think Floriduh just set the outlier of all outliers. LOL.

---------------
Men are more ready to repay an injury than a benefit because gratitude is a burden and revenge a pleasure.

12
by Orton's secret shirt pocket (not verified) :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 7:04pm

Suggestions for the podcast? Get Spencer Hall / Orson Swindle on early and often.