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Maybe the Bengals are a paper tiger, but are they really that bad in prime time games? Is Peyton Manning struggling in Denver's new offense? We detail the Monday night clash.

26 Oct 2012

Varsity Numbers: Adjusted Points Revisited

by Bill Connelly

I'm nothing if not habits-based. Now that projections have been phased out, the 2012 numbers are standing by themselves, and the opponent adjustments are at least somewhat viable (since everybody has played between six and eight games), it is once again time to revisit the concept of Adjusted Points and the story it can tell.

What are Adjusted Points? Each year I try to explain it well, and each year I find I didn't really do so. Here's what I originally said about it in 2010:

I have always loved the relatability of a lot of baseball stats. WAR (Wins Above Replacement) boils a complicated measure down to, basically, how many wins a player is worth. Measures like EqA (Equivalent Average) give you something more telling and accurate than, say, batting average. But since people know what a good or bad batting average is, they scale it to where it resembles batting average. Something like DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Stats) takes figures more reflective of pitching quality and equates them to an ERA-type measure.

Clearly, FO readers have begun to figure out what good or bad DVOA, F/+, S&P+, etc., ratings look like, but the casual reader still might be a little thrown by it. As I was looking into ways to improve our F/+ performances against the spread, I began to wonder what S&P+ might look like in a different format. What would it tell us if we looked at a single-game S&P+ performance in terms of a point figure? This would give us an opponent-adjusted, tempo-adjusted (since S&P+ is a per-play measure) way to judge offenses, in a more recognizable form.

The idea is simple, really. Take a team's single-game performance in terms of Off. S&P+ and Def. S&P+ and boil it down to a score one might better understand, a number to which one can more easily relate. If you read Varsity Numbers regularly or pay reasonable attention to S&P+, then saying that Alabama's single-game S&P+ scores against Tennessee last Saturday were 133.7 on offense and 151.6 on defense might mean something to you. But saying that 133.7 Off. S&P+ equates to scoring about 40.9 points versus a perfectly average opponent, and that a 151.6 Def. S&P+ score is like allowing 15.7 points to a perfectly average opponent, makes the numbers more accessible by comparing them to the actual score.

In an era where so many teams run at mach speeds, adjusting for both pace and opponent becomes a necessity. It is easy to be wooed by the gaudy stats posted by offenses attempting 100 plays per game (and it can certainly be fun to watch), but if our goal is to truly figure out who is good and who is bad, these adjustments become a must. Take, for instance, West Virginia. The Mountaineers have dominated a good portion of the season's overall narrative, first for their scary offensive performances, then for their absolutely horrific defensive showing. Adj. Scores tell us a story similar to what actual scores tell us, but when you strip pace from the equation and you take into account the level of offenses and defenses West Virginia faces on a week-to-week basis, the extreme aspect of the narrative is removed a bit.

  • Real Score: West Virginia 69, Marshall 34 | Adj. Score: West Virginia 57.2, Average Opponent 22.8
  • Real Score: West Virginia 42, James Madison 12 | Adj. Score: West Virginia 45.7, Average Opponent 27.1
  • Real Score: West Virginia 31, Maryland 21 | Adj. Score: West Virginia 41.3, Average Opponent 35.1
  • Real Score: West Virginia 70, Baylor 63 | Adj. Score: West Virginia 42.8, Average Opponent 33.4
  • Real Score: West Virginia 48, Texas 45 | Adj. Score: West Virginia 34.3, Average Opponent 28.1
  • Real Score: Texas Tech 49, West Virginia 14 | Adj. Score: Average Opponent 36.3, West Virginia 32.1
  • Real Score: Kansas State 55, West Virginia 14 | Adj. Score: Average Opponent 35.4, West Virginia 20.4

In recent weeks, our eyeballs have told us that West Virginia's offense has begun to press when faced with a) smarter defenses like Texas Tech and Kansas State and b) early deficits. The Adj. Score narrative backs that up but fills in another piece of the narrative, too: while the bottom has fallen out in the last two weeks, West Virginia has been getting progressively worse since the start of the season. Here is the Adj. Scoring Margin for each WVU game: plus-34.4, plus-18.6, plus-6.2, plus-9.5, plus-6.1, minus-4.2, and minus-15.0. The offense has gotten worse in all but one game, and the defense has been pretty poor since Week 3. The defense is indeed bad, but opponents have been slowly figuring out ways to slow down Dana Holgorsen's offense for a while.

In other words, it might be a pretty good time for a bye week in Morgantown.

There's one final note regarding Adj. Points and the story they tell, and I'll start with a quote from last year:

One concept I didn't explain very well the first time around is this: for every game that is played, it is not guaranteed that one team will end up with an Adj. Win and one with an Adj. Loss. Both teams' performances are being compared to the opponent's season averages, so if both teams play well, or if both teams play particularly poorly, then there could be two Adj. Wins in a given game or two Adj. Losses.

I once again used the Adj. Scores concept in my 2012 team previews at SB Nation, mostly to look at full-season trends or the impact of a given injury. But I still got quite a few comments and questions regarding the fact that, in a given game, both Team A and Team B got an Adjusted Win or Loss, and how that must be a mistake. It is not. The idea behind Adj. Score is that, in every given week, we are all playing the same opponent. We compare Team A's performance against Team B to the expected performance of teams playing Team B, and we give them a score compared to this baseline. If both teams play particularly well or poorly, they both get an Adjusted Win or Loss.

Example 1. Michigan's 12-10 win over Michigan State on Saturday produced the following Adj. Scores:
Michigan 30.2, Average Opponent 28.4 (an Adj. Win)
Michigan State 27.9, Average Opponent 13.0 (an Adj. Win)

In averaging 5.3 yards per play, Michigan's offense played reasonably well against a strong Michigan State defense (compared to how teams typically move the ball against the Spartans), even if the score remained low because the Wolverines were settling for field goals. Meanwhile, the Michigan defense played about average against a pretty poor Michigan State offense. On the flipside, Michigan State's offense performed about average versus a solid Michigan defense and held the Michigan offense far more in-check than the normal defense does. Both teams played well enough to beat an average opponent, but only one team was actually allowed to win the game.

Example 2. Wake Forest's 16-10 win over Virginia on Saturday produced the following Adj. Scores:
Average Opponent 20.2, Wake Forest 15.1 (an Adj. Loss)
Average Opponent 20.8, Virginia 15.1 (an Adj. Loss)

Both Wake Forest and Virginia produced solid defensive performances, but for both teams, the negatives on offense outweighed the positives on defense.

Below is an enormous table showing you all of the Adj. Scoring averages for the 124 FBS teams. You will see per-game averages for Adj. Points (offense and defense) and scoring margin, along with a team's Adjusted and actual records. I am also including a small visit from Uncle Mo. The final three columns show you each team's weighted Adj. Scoring averages (where more recent games are given more weight), ranking, and "Momentum," which is in this case defined simply by subtracting the full-season averages from the weighted averages. With only six-to-eight data points, no team's weighted averages stray TOO far from full-season averages, but you can certainly see differences in teams like Wisconsin, Kansas State and Boise State (all improving), along with teams like UConn, West Virginia, Florida State and UCLA (all regressing).

Team Adj. Off.
Pts
Rk Adj. Def.
Pts
Rk Adj.
Margin
Rk Adj.
Record
Actual
Record
Wtd.
Margin
Rk Momentum
Alabama 42.0 1 0.8 1 +41.2 1 7-0 7-0 +39.7 1 -1.5
Florida State 40.0 5 10.5 3 +29.5 2 8-0 7-1 +27.4 2 -2.1
Florida 34.9 24 10.4 2 +24.5 3 7-0 7-0 +25.6 3 +1.1
Oklahoma 38.1 13 15.0 5 +23.1 4 6-0 5-1 +23.5 4 +0.4
Texas Tech 39.0 9 17.0 8 +22.0 5 7-0 6-1 +21.6 5 -0.4
Oregon 40.2 4 22.2 23 +18.1 6 7-0 7-0 +18.0 7 -0.1
Notre Dame 35.5 21 19.0 12 +16.5 7 7-0 7-0 +17.0 8 +0.6
Kansas State 41.3 3 24.9 39 +16.3 8 6-1 7-0 +18.1 6 +1.8
Oklahoma State 39.2 7 24.2 33 +15.0 9 5-1 4-2 +13.8 13 -1.2
Nebraska 38.1 14 23.2 26 +14.9 10 5-2 5-2 +14.8 9 -0.1
Stanford 29.8 55 15.4 6 +14.4 11 6-1 5-2 +14.8 10 +0.4
Michigan 36.2 18 21.9 22 +14.3 12 7-0 5-2 +14.6 11 +0.3
North Carolina 33.5 31 19.4 14 +14.1 13 5-3 5-3 +12.9 15 -1.2
Texas A&M 38.2 12 24.1 31 +14.1 14 7-0 5-2 +13.9 12 -0.2
LSU 31.0 47 17.2 9 +13.8 15 7-1 7-1 +12.3 18 -1.5
BYU 29.4 58 15.8 7 +13.6 16 6-2 4-4 +12.6 16 -0.9
Oregon State 33.8 28 20.8 19 +13.0 17 6-0 6-0 +13.3 14 +0.3
Ohio State 38.0 15 25.1 40 +12.9 18 7-1 8-0 +12.5 17 -0.4
South Carolina 32.2 36 19.8 15 +12.4 19 7-1 6-2 +11.6 19 -0.8
Utah State 32.2 37 20.4 17 +11.8 20 7-1 6-2 +11.4 21 -0.4
Team Adj. Off.
Pts
Rk Adj. Def.
Pts
Rk Adj.
Margin
Rk Adj.
Record
Actual
Record
Wtd.
Margin
Rk Momentum
Arizona 37.7 16 26.0 44 +11.6 21 6-1 4-3 +11.4 20 -0.2
Arizona State 34.6 26 23.3 27 +11.4 22 6-1 5-2 +10.4 22 -1.0
Michigan State 23.6 105 12.4 4 +11.2 23 6-2 4-4 +10.1 23 -1.1
Texas 37.3 17 26.2 45 +11.1 24 5-2 5-2 +9.6 29 -1.6
Tennessee 38.6 11 28.4 65 +10.2 25 6-1 3-4 +10.0 24 -0.2
Georgia 39.5 6 29.4 72 +10.1 26 4-3 6-1 +9.2 31 -0.9
Fresno State 30.5 52 20.5 18 +10.1 27 6-2 5-3 +9.6 28 -0.5
Virginia Tech 30.0 53 20.0 16 +10.0 28 5-3 4-4 +9.7 27 -0.3
USC 36.2 19 26.7 49 +9.5 29 5-2 6-1 +9.9 25 +0.4
Ole Miss 34.8 25 26.2 46 +8.6 30 6-1 4-3 +9.0 33 +0.3
TCU 29.3 59 21.2 21 +8.1 31 5-2 5-2 +7.8 38 -0.4
Clemson 36.1 20 28.0 63 +8.0 32 6-1 6-1 +8.4 35 +0.4
West Virginia 39.1 8 31.2 90 +7.9 33 5-2 5-2 +5.3 42 -2.6
Wisconsin 32.7 34 24.8 37 +7.9 34 7-1 6-2 +9.9 26 +2.0
Baylor 41.6 2 34.2 115 +7.5 35 5-1 3-3 +6.8 40 -0.7
Syracuse 35.0 23 27.6 59 +7.4 36 6-1 3-4 +8.7 34 +1.2
Boise State 28.3 68 20.9 20 +7.4 37 5-2 6-1 +9.1 32 +1.7
San Jose State 33.5 30 26.4 48 +7.1 38 7-0 5-2 +7.7 39 +0.7
Penn State 31.6 43 24.8 36 +6.8 39 5-2 5-2 +8.0 36 +1.2
Mississippi State 32.0 41 25.3 41 +6.7 40 3-4 7-0 +7.8 37 +1.1
Team Adj. Off.
Pts
Rk Adj. Def.
Pts
Rk Adj.
Margin
Rk Adj.
Record
Actual
Record
Wtd.
Margin
Rk Momentum
Iowa State 25.4 89 19.2 13 +6.1 41 5-2 4-3 +5.3 43 -0.8
Bowling Green 24.0 103 17.9 11 +6.1 42 5-3 5-3 +9.5 30 +3.5
UCLA 31.6 44 25.9 43 +5.7 43 4-3 5-2 +3.6 48 -2.1
Louisiana Tech 38.9 10 33.4 111 +5.5 44 6-1 6-1 +5.8 41 +0.2
Georgia Tech 35.3 22 30.3 82 +5.1 45 3-4 3-4 +4.1 47 -1.0
Arkansas State 33.6 29 29.0 69 +4.7 46 5-2 4-3 +4.7 44 +0.0
South Florida 31.8 42 27.4 56 +4.5 47 4-3 2-5 +3.4 50 -1.0
Connecticut 21.3 114 17.7 10 +3.5 48 3-5 3-5 +0.7 64 -2.8
Vanderbilt 26.0 81 22.8 24 +3.1 49 2-5 3-4 +2.5 52 -0.6
Arkansas 33.4 32 30.5 85 +2.9 50 4-3 3-4 +4.3 46 +1.4
Pittsburgh 30.9 49 28.2 64 +2.7 51 4-3 3-4 +2.5 55 -0.2
Northern Illinois 28.9 65 26.3 47 +2.6 52 5-3 7-1 +4.6 45 +2.0
San Diego State 32.5 35 30.1 80 +2.3 53 6-2 5-3 +2.5 53 +0.2
Western Kentucky 29.5 57 27.2 52 +2.3 54 4-3 5-2 +2.5 54 +0.2
Troy 30.8 50 28.5 66 +2.3 55 5-2 4-3 +1.6 62 -0.7
Washington 26.3 78 24.1 30 +2.2 56 5-2 3-4 +2.1 56 -0.1
Rutgers 25.2 92 23.0 25 +2.2 57 3-4 7-0 +3.6 49 +1.4
Northwestern 29.7 56 27.7 60 +2.0 58 6-2 6-2 +1.7 60 -0.3
California 29.1 63 27.0 50 +2.0 59 5-3 3-5 +1.8 59 -0.2
N.C. State 29.1 62 27.3 53 +1.8 60 3-4 5-2 +2.7 51 +0.9
Team Adj. Off.
Pts
Rk Adj. Def.
Pts
Rk Adj.
Margin
Rk Adj.
Record
Actual
Record
Wtd.
Margin
Rk Momentum
Nevada 33.9 27 32.1 98 +1.8 61 5-3 6-2 +2.0 58 +0.1
Central Florida 31.0 48 29.4 74 +1.6 62 3-4 5-2 +1.0 63 -0.6
Louisville 33.4 33 32.3 100 +1.2 63 3-4 7-0 +2.1 57 +0.9
Purdue 25.4 88 24.5 34 +0.9 64 4-3 3-4 -0.8 70 -1.6
UL-Monroe 28.5 67 27.8 61 +0.7 65 2-5 5-2 +1.7 61 +1.0
UL-Lafayette 27.6 71 27.4 57 +0.2 66 4-2 4-2 0.0 68 -0.2
Iowa 24.7 96 24.6 35 +0.1 67 2-5 4-3 -1.1 73 -1.2
Toledo 32.0 40 32.0 96 +0.0 68 3-5 7-1 +0.5 65 +0.5
Cincinnati 28.9 66 29.4 75 -0.6 69 4-2 5-1 -0.8 71 -0.2
Indiana 32.1 39 32.9 108 -0.8 70 2-5 2-5 -0.2 69 +0.6
Miami 30.0 54 31.0 89 -1.0 71 4-4 4-4 +0.0 67 +1.1
Tulsa 27.7 70 28.9 68 -1.2 72 3-5 7-1 -1.3 75 -0.1
Minnesota 26.1 80 27.3 55 -1.3 73 4-3 4-3 -2.5 80 -1.2
Missouri 24.2 102 25.5 42 -1.3 74 3-4 3-4 -2.6 81 -1.3
Ball State 31.0 46 32.4 102 -1.4 75 4-4 5-3 -1.0 72 +0.3
Marshall 31.2 45 32.7 105 -1.5 76 4-3 3-4 +0.2 66 +1.7
Utah 23.1 107 24.9 38 -1.7 77 2-5 2-5 -2.9 82 -1.2
Kansas 26.9 75 28.7 67 -1.9 78 2-5 1-6 -1.6 77 +0.3
UAB 27.3 73 29.6 77 -2.3 79 2-5 1-6 -1.2 74 +1.0
Virginia 24.9 93 27.3 54 -2.4 80 3-5 2-6 -2.0 78 +0.4
Team Adj. Off.
Pts
Rk Adj. Def.
Pts
Rk Adj.
Margin
Rk Adj.
Record
Actual
Record
Wtd.
Margin
Rk Momentum
Duke 29.0 64 31.5 93 -2.4 81 3-5 6-2 -1.5 76 +0.9
Illinois 21.5 112 24.0 29 -2.4 82 2-5 2-5 -4.4 91 -2.0
Wake Forest 24.4 100 27.2 51 -2.8 83 3-4 4-3 -3.0 83 -0.2
North Texas 26.8 76 29.8 78 -2.9 84 3-4 3-4 -2.4 79 +0.5
Ohio 27.1 74 30.2 81 -3.1 85 2-5 7-0 -4.4 92 -1.3
Florida International 27.8 69 30.9 87 -3.2 86 2-6 1-7 -3.1 85 +0.1
Houston 25.8 82 29.4 76 -3.6 87 2-5 3-4 -3.1 84 +0.5
SMU 20.1 116 24.0 28 -3.9 88 3-4 3-4 -3.3 86 +0.7
Air Force 32.2 38 36.5 122 -4.4 89 1-6 4-3 -4.0 89 +0.4
Boston College 24.6 97 29.1 70 -4.5 90 1-6 1-6 -4.7 94 -0.3
East Carolina 25.6 84 30.3 83 -4.7 91 3-5 5-3 -3.6 87 +1.1
Texas State 26.2 79 31.0 88 -4.7 92 2-4 3-3 -5.3 96 -0.5
Middle Tennessee 30.5 51 35.4 118 -4.9 93 3-4 5-2 -4.8 95 +0.1
Kent State 24.5 99 29.4 73 -4.9 94 2-5 6-1 -3.8 88 +1.1
Western Michigan 26.5 77 31.5 94 -5.0 95 1-7 3-5 -4.5 93 +0.5
New Mexico 27.4 72 32.7 107 -5.4 96 2-6 4-4 -4.0 90 +1.4
Auburn 22.2 110 28.0 62 -5.8 97 2-5 1-6 -6.1 99 -0.3
Southern Miss 25.4 87 31.3 91 -5.9 98 1-6 0-7 -5.9 98 0.0
Maryland 18.2 120 24.2 32 -6.1 99 1-6 4-3 -5.6 97 +0.5
Kentucky 25.4 86 31.5 95 -6.1 100 2-6 1-7 -7.4 107 -1.3
Team Adj. Off.
Pts
Rk Adj. Def.
Pts
Rk Adj.
Margin
Rk Adj.
Record
Actual
Record
Wtd.
Margin
Rk Momentum
Buffalo 24.9 94 31.3 92 -6.4 101 1-6 1-6 -6.6 101 -0.1
Central Michigan 29.1 61 36.0 121 -6.9 102 1-6 2-5 -6.4 100 +0.5
Wyoming 23.3 106 30.4 84 -7.1 103 1-6 1-6 -7.0 103 +0.1
Navy 25.7 83 32.9 109 -7.3 104 0-7 4-3 -6.9 102 +0.4
Akron 24.7 95 32.0 97 -7.3 105 2-6 1-7 -7.0 104 +0.3
Temple 25.3 91 32.7 106 -7.5 106 1-5 3-3 -7.4 105 +0.1
Rice 24.3 101 32.6 103 -8.2 107 1-7 2-6 -7.4 106 +0.8
South Alabama 19.1 119 27.5 58 -8.3 108 1-6 2-5 -9.3 112 -1.0
Army 29.1 60 37.7 124 -8.6 109 1-6 1-6 -8.7 110 -0.1
UTSA 25.3 90 34.0 113 -8.6 110 1-4 3-2 -8.7 109 0.0
UNLV 23.6 104 32.4 101 -8.7 111 1-7 1-7 -8.4 108 +0.3
Colorado State 21.8 111 30.9 86 -9.1 112 1-6 1-6 -8.9 111 +0.2
UTEP 22.6 109 32.6 104 -10.0 113 1-7 2-6 -10.5 113 -0.5
New Mexico State 24.5 98 35.3 117 -10.7 114 1-6 1-6 -10.9 114 -0.2
Memphis 18.1 121 29.3 71 -11.2 115 1-6 1-6 -10.9 115 +0.3
Miami (Ohio) 25.4 85 37.1 123 -11.7 116 0-7 3-4 -11.4 117 +0.3
Hawaii 17.9 122 29.9 79 -12.0 117 1-5 1-5 -12.8 120 -0.8
Florida Atlantic 19.9 117 32.2 99 -12.3 118 0-7 1-6 -11.4 116 +0.9
Washington State 20.5 115 33.1 110 -12.6 119 1-6 2-5 -12.4 119 +0.2
Eastern Michigan 22.7 108 35.4 119 -12.7 120 1-6 1-6 -11.7 118 +1.1
Team Adj. Off.
Pts
Rk Adj. Def.
Pts
Rk Adj.
Margin
Rk Adj.
Record
Actual
Record
Wtd.
Margin
Rk Momentum
Colorado 21.4 113 35.8 120 -14.5 121 0-7 1-6 -14.6 121 -0.1
Idaho 19.2 118 34.2 116 -15.1 122 1-7 1-7 -15.4 122 -0.3
Tulane 16.5 123 33.8 112 -17.4 123 0-7 1-6 -16.7 123 +0.7
Massachusetts 15.0 124 34.0 114 -19.0 124 1-6 0-7 -18.4 124 +0.6

This Week at SB Nation

Posted by: Bill Connelly on 26 Oct 2012

8 comments, Last at 30 Oct 2012, 8:50pm by EaglesFan

Comments

1
by ChrisH :: Fri, 10/26/2012 - 12:02pm

Under the adjusted scores, Oregon is undefeated, Oregon State is undefeated, and Arizona is 6-1. Given that Arizona played both Oregon and Oregon State, how does this happen?

2
by Bill Connelly :: Fri, 10/26/2012 - 12:15pm

I once again used the Adj. Scores concept in my 2012 team previews at SB Nation, mostly to look at full-season trends or the impact of a given injury. But I still got quite a few comments and questions regarding the fact that, in a given game, both Team A and Team B got an Adjusted Win or Loss, and how that must be a mistake. It is not. The idea behind Adj. Score is that, in every given week, we are all playing the same opponent. We compare Team A's performance against Team B to the expected performance of teams playing Team B, and we give them a score compared to this baseline. If both teams play particularly well or poorly, they both get an Adjusted Win or Loss.

3
by KK Probs (not verified) :: Fri, 10/26/2012 - 12:21pm

In real life games, the results must produce one team getting one win and one team getting one loss; there is not other possible win-loss distribution.

This metric is designed to see how teams would have done against an AVERAGE team in any given game. As explained in the article, the record listed in the table is how each team would have done (Win or Loss) against an AVERAGE team that week, NOT against the team they actually played.

Therefore, it is possible, in any given game, that both teams would have lost against and average team, or that both teams would have won against an average team. But, because they actually played each other in real life that week, the real life game had to result in one win for one team and one loss for the other team.

For example, if Alabama and Oregon played, we would expect both teams to play at a level where they would beat an average team even though only one can get a win in the actual standings.

I appreciate this effort. I have tried to get the college metrics here into a real world score before, and this is a good shot at it.

4
by Kal :: Fri, 10/26/2012 - 1:26pm

Speaking of Oregon - how is it that their adjusted defensive points are so high? I would have thought that they would be significantly lower given how good they are in S+P currently; compare to Alabama's, which is .1. How was that figured?

5
by Bill Connelly :: Fri, 10/26/2012 - 3:35pm

I can't remember when/where I talked about this, but I ended up making the decision to use FULL-GAME S&P+ (including garbage time) for Adj. Points. With the number of garbage-time points Oregon has allowed, that would explain most of the difference.

6
by Kal :: Fri, 10/26/2012 - 5:59pm

Heh. Yeah, that would do it this season; I think Oregon's given up something like 90 points in garbage time this year. Natural when garbage time starts in the second quarter, but yikes. I wonder what Oregon's differential would look like without that adjustment.

7
by Scott Rucarean (not verified) :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 3:38pm

Great work Bill. Will these figures be posted each week? Hopefully yes.
Thanks.

8
by EaglesFan (not verified) :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 8:50pm

I think I remember seeing this a while back, but if you look at the S&P+ of two opponenets, how would that equate to an expected point differential? For example, the S&P+ of Ohio is 170.5 and Eastern Michigan is 160.4 So the delta is 10.4. Do you divide by something like 3 (plus home field adv.) to get an anticipated spread? How about FEI and F/+?