Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

24 Oct 2014

Varsity Numbers: Honing in

by Bill Connelly

Last week, we compared F/+ to reality. It was a useful exercise, and it uncovered a little bit about teams that have been a little bit lucky or unlucky overall.

The day after that exercise, I watched my Mizzou squad go out and secure its third unlikely result of the season; the Tigers beat Florida, 42-13, winning for the second time as a road underdog with a 30 to 40 percent chance of winning. Before those two wins, the Tigers lost at home to Indiana when they had an 80 to 90 percent chance of winning.

Mizzou's F/+ ranking had swayed and veered through the previous six weeks or so. Following a mostly dominant win over UCF, the Tigers moved to 12th, and following a shutout loss to Georgia, they fell to 48th. The win over Florida, dictated mostly by defense and special teams, moved them back to 36th.

This made me a bit curious. At this point, F/+ is zeroing in on a large number of teams for which the F/+ rating hasn't changed much in a while. But it is still struggling to hone in on other teams' levels of quality (or lack thereof). So I thought I'd look at another "F/+ vs. Reality" test.

Below are each team's F/+ ratings for each week of the season, starting with the final preseason projections and working to the present.

I wanted to look at not only the teams that have changed the most since the preseason, but also the teams that have changed the most week to week. On the far right, past the weekly ratings, you'll see three measures: a team's given change from August, the team's average weekly change (in absolute value form), and the team's standard deviation from the last month.

(I'm using ratings instead of rankings for this because I don't want to get distracted by what seem like big jumps/falls in the rankings that happen simply because a ton of teams are bunched together. The drawback for this is that, when we implemented the full per-unit ratings after Week 7, the bad teams' ratings got a lot worse and the good teams' ratings got a lot better. There were lots of jumps after Week 7, which is normal, but it skewed some of the data below.)

Team Preseason 1 Wk 2 Wks 3 Wks 4 Wks 5 Wks 6 Wks 7 Wks 8 Wks Chg from Aug Avg Chg Rk Std Dev
(last 4)
Rk
Air Force -13.5% -10.5% -12.5% -13.1% -11.1% -4.9% 1.9% 3.6% 3.3% 16.8% 2.8% 54 4.0% 67
Akron -14.3% -10.6% -12.0% -10.5% -14.2% -5.1% -3.4% -5.2% -5.1% 9.2% 2.9% 50 0.9% 124
Alabama 30.2% 26.7% 26.1% 27.4% 27.1% 25.1% 21.4% 25.4% 31.8% 1.6% 2.7% 64 4.3% 54
Appalachian State -21.0% -29.2% -25.3% -25.0% -22.1% -22.2% -20.6% -39.4% -36.9% -15.9% 4.8% 1 9.7% 2
Arizona 8.9% 11.1% 9.7% 10.2% 7.6% 6.1% 13.0% 16.2% 16.8% 7.9% 2.4% 87 4.9% 37
Arizona State 14.8% 15.7% 15.3% 13.1% 14.5% 2.9% 8.7% 16.0% 23.1% 8.4% 4.6% 2 8.8% 4
Arkansas -0.2% -1.9% 3.8% 7.4% 10.4% 12.4% 9.4% 9.8% 5.7% 5.9% 2.9% 43 2.8% 95
Arkansas State -8.1% -5.3% -5.8% -10.7% -10.7% -8.1% -6.2% -2.1% -1.6% 6.5% 2.2% 99 3.2% 86
Army -11.4% -11.8% -10.7% -14.3% -11.6% -11.4% -10.8% -22.0% -25.5% -14.1% 2.9% 47 7.5% 9
Auburn 18.8% 18.5% 20.8% 21.5% 21.6% 21.9% 21.4% 29.7% 29.3% 10.6% 1.6% 121 4.5% 47
Ball State -4.4% -2.2% -3.5% -5.7% -10.0% -10.8% -11.3% -17.9% -16.8% -12.4% 2.4% 89 3.7% 76
Baylor 17.0% 18.7% 18.3% 19.3% 24.2% 21.3% 18.2% 26.6% 23.0% 6.0% 3.3% 30 3.5% 77
Boise State 10.5% 5.5% 7.3% 9.2% 10.3% 7.4% 9.5% 8.1% 7.9% -2.7% 2.1% 102 0.9% 123
Boston College -3.3% -1.6% -1.9% 3.1% 4.9% 3.3% 5.2% 14.1% 16.2% 19.5% 2.9% 45 6.4% 19
Bowling Green 2.4% -0.5% -0.5% 0.1% -7.0% -10.9% -12.9% -23.5% -21.3% -23.7% 3.6% 18 6.2% 23
Buffalo -9.2% -9.0% -10.3% -13.8% -11.6% -12.2% -10.9% -22.5% -23.6% -14.4% 2.7% 66 6.7% 13
BYU 10.6% 11.6% 14.6% 12.7% 12.6% 11.5% 5.7% 14.0% 14.5% 3.9% 2.7% 68 4.0% 66
California -6.2% -3.4% -2.3% 0.9% 2.6% 3.2% 10.2% 12.0% 8.1% 14.3% 2.8% 62 3.8% 72
Central Florida 12.2% 9.7% 10.8% 4.5% 2.8% 1.6% -1.0% 2.3% 5.0% -7.2% 2.7% 70 2.5% 99
Central Michigan -11.1% -10.2% -8.2% -11.2% -11.5% -11.5% -9.0% -13.9% -10.9% 0.2% 2.1% 101 2.0% 107
Cincinnati 3.0% 2.6% 4.0% 4.5% 2.1% 1.3% -3.6% -10.4% -8.7% -11.7% 2.4% 90 5.3% 31
Clemson 16.6% 12.9% 14.6% 13.9% 14.6% 13.4% 13.0% 24.2% 26.0% 9.4% 2.7% 69 6.9% 12
Colorado -10.4% -11.8% -14.1% -9.1% -8.5% -6.3% -1.5% -1.8% -7.0% 3.4% 2.7% 65 2.9% 93
Colorado State -5.8% -6.0% -7.5% -3.4% -2.4% 0.0% 4.7% 12.7% 13.6% 19.4% 2.8% 53 6.5% 14
Connecticut -5.3% -8.3% -7.7% -7.9% -9.7% -12.7% -12.2% -17.9% -17.6% -12.3% 1.9% 110 3.1% 89
Team Preseason 1 Wk 2 Wks 3 Wks 4 Wks 5 Wks 6 Wks 7 Wks 8 Wks Chg from Aug Avg Chg Rk Std Dev
(last 4)
Rk
Duke 4.2% 6.9% 4.6% 7.5% 5.9% 2.0% -0.6% 14.4% 19.2% 14.9% 4.5% 3 9.6% 3
East Carolina 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 4.4% 7.7% 7.3% 6.1% 9.0% 10.7% 10.6% 1.9% 112 2.0% 110
Eastern Michigan -22.1% -21.5% -25.1% -24.9% -26.1% -24.4% -24.5% -31.1% -32.7% -10.6% 2.0% 108 4.3% 53
Florida 10.1% 9.7% 10.1% 9.2% 5.1% 7.2% 4.9% 9.1% 1.0% -9.1% 2.8% 58 3.5% 80
Florida Atlantic -9.1% -15.0% -18.3% -11.3% -13.2% -9.9% -11.8% -17.5% -14.5% -5.5% 4.0% 8 3.3% 82
Florida International -17.8% -16.9% -16.8% -17.8% -16.4% -11.6% -6.8% -5.0% -7.7% 10.1% 2.2% 97 2.8% 94
Florida State 33.8% 30.7% 31.2% 32.7% 26.6% 22.6% 15.7% 23.0% 26.9% -6.8% 4.2% 6 4.7% 41
Fresno State 1.6% -3.7% -7.3% -10.5% -11.7% -11.7% -11.1% -20.9% -16.0% -17.6% 3.6% 19 4.5% 48
Georgia 18.0% 19.6% 21.2% 18.7% 18.2% 15.0% 12.5% 25.7% 27.9% 9.9% 3.4% 24 7.7% 8
Georgia Southern -21.7% -20.6% -16.4% -12.1% -5.9% -2.4% -1.2% -1.7% -0.4% 21.3% 2.8% 59 0.8% 125
Georgia State -22.2% -20.6% -22.6% -23.0% -22.6% -19.5% -13.8% -20.6% -18.1% 4.0% 2.8% 56 3.0% 90
Georgia Tech 5.9% 6.3% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 6.7% 9.6% 19.0% 17.9% 12.0% 2.0% 106 6.1% 24
Hawaii -11.0% -9.0% -7.9% -8.0% -8.9% -9.4% -7.8% -6.8% -11.4% -0.4% 1.5% 125 2.0% 108
Houston 8.3% 3.7% 3.2% -0.3% -1.6% -3.2% -6.3% -8.4% -5.6% -14.0% 2.4% 83 2.1% 105
Idaho -17.9% -18.1% -16.9% -19.3% -19.4% -18.1% -15.8% -22.0% -21.4% -3.5% 1.8% 115 2.9% 92
Illinois -4.5% -3.3% -1.7% -4.0% -4.9% -4.4% -5.6% -8.7% -11.4% -7.0% 1.7% 118 3.2% 87
Indiana 3.3% 4.3% 2.9% 6.4% 8.7% 0.4% -1.6% -8.6% -7.7% -11.1% 3.3% 28 4.4% 50
Iowa 10.5% 8.7% 9.2% 8.9% 7.1% 2.9% 3.3% 5.2% 6.7% -3.8% 1.6% 122 1.8% 114
Iowa State -3.1% -5.3% -5.0% -0.2% -1.4% 1.2% -2.6% 0.7% -0.5% 2.5% 2.4% 82 1.7% 117
Kansas -11.1% -11.4% -9.6% -13.0% -10.9% -10.6% -11.9% -16.9% -17.1% -6.0% 1.8% 114 3.4% 81
Kansas State 11.0% 11.6% 9.3% 12.5% 12.1% 11.4% 9.1% 15.3% 19.6% 8.5% 2.5% 81 4.6% 46
Kent State -10.0% -11.2% -11.0% -15.8% -18.9% -17.2% -13.9% -26.2% -21.9% -11.9% 3.8% 12 5.4% 29
Kentucky -5.1% -0.9% -1.4% -2.9% -4.5% -3.3% 0.5% 3.0% -5.3% -0.2% 2.9% 44 3.7% 74
Louisiana Tech -12.5% -18.8% -9.1% -7.2% -5.2% -6.0% -3.1% -7.9% -5.8% 6.8% 3.8% 14 2.0% 109
Louisville 14.8% 16.0% 18.3% 17.1% 19.0% 15.8% 14.0% 24.1% 22.4% 7.6% 2.9% 48 4.9% 36
Team Preseason 1 Wk 2 Wks 3 Wks 4 Wks 5 Wks 6 Wks 7 Wks 8 Wks Chg from Aug Avg Chg Rk Std Dev
(last 4)
Rk
LSU 19.6% 19.2% 20.4% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4% 11.2% 13.7% 17.1% -2.4% 2.2% 98 4.0% 64
Marshall 0.8% 1.6% 2.5% 5.3% 9.7% 10.1% 14.8% 19.9% 22.0% 21.1% 2.6% 72 5.3% 30
Maryland 2.4% 2.8% 2.9% 2.6% 5.2% 7.9% 3.6% 8.2% 14.2% 11.8% 2.6% 74 4.4% 52
Massachusetts -24.2% -26.3% -23.0% -19.7% -21.0% -17.2% -13.7% -18.9% -18.9% 5.3% 2.8% 57 2.4% 100
Memphis -6.4% -3.2% -5.0% -5.8% -2.2% 2.9% 5.7% 4.4% 6.2% 12.6% 2.6% 77 1.5% 119
Miami 8.0% 6.9% 10.4% 11.3% 9.8% 11.0% 6.6% 16.4% 17.8% 9.8% 3.0% 39 5.2% 33
Miami (Ohio) -22.5% -23.5% -20.0% -20.7% -15.5% -12.2% -11.4% -14.8% -16.3% 6.2% 2.4% 84 2.3% 103
Michigan 11.0% 16.2% 11.8% 9.6% 11.5% 4.6% 2.8% 4.9% 3.0% -8.0% 3.3% 25 1.1% 122
Michigan State 18.4% 21.3% 19.3% 20.8% 19.4% 16.1% 15.1% 20.1% 21.6% 3.2% 2.3% 93 3.1% 88
Middle Tennessee -10.1% -5.0% -10.3% -8.8% -11.9% -7.5% -7.6% -8.4% -7.2% 2.8% 2.7% 71 0.5% 128
Minnesota -2.1% -1.6% -0.3% -0.9% 0.2% 7.2% 6.5% 12.5% 11.3% 13.3% 2.3% 95 3.0% 91
Mississippi State 11.1% 14.4% 12.2% 16.8% 20.8% 22.0% 22.8% 33.3% 29.3% 18.2% 3.8% 13 5.4% 28
Missouri 14.1% 13.7% 17.1% 19.1% 14.5% 11.3% 9.1% 8.1% 13.7% -0.4% 2.8% 55 2.5% 97
N.C. State -2.8% -5.5% -4.5% 2.5% 5.2% 4.8% -1.3% -2.6% 0.4% 3.2% 3.0% 37 3.2% 84
Navy 0.7% -0.5% 1.7% 2.5% 4.1% 4.5% 4.7% 3.8% -0.4% -1.1% 1.4% 126 2.4% 101
Nebraska 6.6% 11.6% 7.9% 12.3% 11.6% 11.1% 9.7% 18.9% 21.7% 15.1% 3.5% 23 5.9% 25
Nevada -1.9% -1.2% -2.2% -1.3% -2.5% -1.6% 2.8% 1.2% 4.4% 6.2% 1.7% 116 2.5% 96
New Mexico -15.6% -16.8% -16.1% -15.6% -13.4% -15.4% -10.3% -13.8% -10.7% 4.9% 2.3% 94 2.5% 98
New Mexico State -26.2% -23.6% -24.5% -25.1% -22.7% -20.5% -15.3% -24.0% -23.9% 2.3% 2.9% 51 4.1% 62
North Carolina 8.6% 8.0% 7.7% 8.8% 0.4% -1.4% -3.4% -6.4% -1.3% -9.9% 2.8% 61 2.4% 102
North Texas -5.1% -9.0% -9.1% -14.2% -15.4% -16.8% -17.9% -28.4% -28.4% -23.3% 2.9% 46 6.4% 20
Northern Illinois 2.5% 2.0% 3.4% 3.1% -1.9% 0.1% -3.3% -15.7% -12.4% -14.9% 3.5% 21 7.4% 10
Northwestern 4.6% 1.9% 0.2% 1.5% -1.8% 3.2% 5.7% 4.9% 1.3% -3.3% 2.6% 75 2.0% 111
Notre Dame 12.7% 15.8% 18.4% 17.2% 17.6% 13.6% 15.7% 23.2% 20.8% 8.1% 2.9% 49 4.4% 51
Ohio -13.3% -12.6% -11.4% -16.1% -16.3% -14.5% -13.1% -27.2% -25.3% -12.0% 3.2% 31 7.3% 11
Team Preseason 1 Wk 2 Wks 3 Wks 4 Wks 5 Wks 6 Wks 7 Wks 8 Wks Chg from Aug Avg Chg Rk Std Dev
(last 4)
Rk
Ohio State 17.9% 18.0% 16.4% 16.1% 17.1% 14.4% 15.1% 21.1% 28.4% 10.6% 2.5% 80 6.5% 15
Oklahoma 19.3% 19.7% 24.9% 22.0% 24.7% 24.0% 21.5% 29.6% 32.2% 12.9% 3.1% 34 4.9% 35
Oklahoma State 16.0% 14.3% 14.6% 18.5% 16.3% 12.3% 7.6% 14.8% 8.0% -8.0% 3.9% 10 3.5% 78
Old Dominion -19.1% -19.3% -19.4% -20.7% -19.2% -14.0% -14.0% -16.7% -17.6% 1.5% 1.5% 124 1.9% 112
Ole Miss 12.0% 14.6% 16.7% 21.6% 21.9% 22.9% 23.5% 36.2% 37.6% 25.5% 3.2% 32 7.9% 6
Oregon 25.0% 26.3% 26.3% 28.5% 26.2% 24.4% 18.4% 28.8% 29.2% 4.2% 3.1% 36 5.0% 34
Oregon State 8.3% 8.0% 7.6% 11.9% 9.8% 3.1% 2.4% 1.9% 1.6% -6.8% 1.9% 111 0.7% 126
Penn State 5.4% 8.6% 9.2% 9.3% 11.2% 6.9% 9.4% 12.1% 8.5% 3.2% 2.4% 88 2.2% 104
Pittsburgh 5.4% 9.4% 10.6% 10.3% 11.7% 5.4% 7.8% 12.6% 16.1% 10.6% 2.9% 42 4.8% 40
Purdue -12.3% -13.6% -15.7% -11.0% -11.5% -9.6% -5.5% -2.2% -1.2% 11.1% 2.4% 92 3.8% 71
Rice -6.8% -11.6% -10.1% -9.7% -11.7% -9.6% -8.6% -12.7% -17.0% -10.2% 2.5% 78 3.8% 70
Rutgers -2.5% -0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 4.7% 5.8% 7.7% 16.8% 6.2% 8.7% 3.8% 15 5.2% 32
San Diego State -5.6% -3.2% -3.4% -4.6% -5.7% -7.6% -8.8% -12.6% -9.8% -4.2% 1.8% 113 2.1% 106
San Jose State -5.9% -2.9% -8.2% -8.1% -10.9% -8.5% -7.0% -16.3% -15.1% -9.2% 3.1% 33 4.6% 44
SMU -5.6% -10.3% -13.3% -14.9% -19.6% -18.4% -18.7% -32.3% -38.0% -32.4% 4.4% 4 9.9% 1
South Alabama -6.8% -6.9% -5.3% -7.1% -12.0% -8.2% -5.3% -13.9% -13.3% -6.5% 3.1% 35 4.2% 59
South Carolina 20.5% 15.8% 15.9% 16.0% 14.8% 11.7% 9.1% 11.5% 9.3% -11.3% 2.1% 104 1.4% 120
South Florida -6.2% -6.3% -7.8% -13.6% -14.3% -13.3% -15.6% -23.3% -20.9% -14.7% 2.7% 67 4.6% 43
Southern Miss -15.1% -20.2% -19.8% -18.5% -21.9% -19.7% -17.2% -25.5% -25.0% -9.8% 3.0% 41 4.0% 65
Stanford 22.4% 24.3% 21.8% 22.4% 23.8% 24.0% 18.2% 26.0% 16.8% -5.6% 3.7% 17 4.4% 49
Syracuse -1.0% -1.7% -2.8% 2.4% 0.2% -0.5% -1.7% -6.8% -6.3% -5.3% 2.1% 100 3.2% 85
TCU 8.1% 10.0% 8.9% 12.7% 16.9% 14.3% 18.2% 28.9% 31.2% 23.2% 3.8% 11 8.2% 5
Temple -5.6% -1.5% -7.1% -6.0% -6.1% -3.2% -1.8% -12.2% -14.6% -9.0% 3.5% 22 6.4% 18
Tennessee -1.3% 1.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 4.8% 5.7% 14.4% 12.7% 14.0% 2.6% 73 4.9% 38
Texas 8.8% 9.9% 3.9% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1% 0.4% -1.0% -0.1% -8.9% 1.6% 119 1.8% 116
Team Preseason 1 Wk 2 Wks 3 Wks 4 Wks 5 Wks 6 Wks 7 Wks 8 Wks Chg from Aug Avg Chg Rk Std Dev
(last 4)
Rk
Texas A&M 16.7% 19.5% 20.8% 20.8% 24.3% 19.4% 14.0% 13.1% 0.8% -15.9% 3.9% 9 7.8% 7
Texas State -16.0% -10.0% -10.0% -16.2% -13.9% -12.4% -13.1% -19.9% -26.1% -10.1% 3.7% 16 6.5% 17
Texas Tech 5.8% 5.8% 4.3% 1.5% 1.8% -0.5% -4.5% -3.9% -3.1% -8.9% 1.6% 123 1.8% 115
Toledo 1.9% 2.8% 1.7% -0.7% -0.6% -2.4% -3.1% -5.3% -4.0% -5.9% 1.3% 128 1.3% 121
Troy -14.6% -19.6% -18.4% -17.8% -23.1% -20.2% -19.0% -26.5% -31.0% -16.5% 3.5% 20 5.6% 27
Tulane -7.6% -7.1% -9.4% -9.5% -9.9% -11.5% -10.1% -18.2% -16.8% -9.3% 2.0% 107 3.9% 68
Tulsa -3.2% -5.2% -7.3% -13.0% -13.8% -12.8% -14.7% -19.7% -21.9% -18.7% 2.6% 76 4.2% 55
UAB -16.8% -13.9% -11.6% -12.1% -9.6% -9.7% -3.9% 0.3% -3.7% 13.1% 2.7% 63 4.1% 63
UCLA 16.4% 16.0% 13.6% 11.7% 14.9% 15.8% 15.8% 22.7% 23.5% 7.0% 2.1% 103 4.2% 56
UL-Lafayette -3.7% -1.4% -9.3% -14.0% -16.1% -14.2% -12.3% -21.1% -17.4% -13.7% 4.2% 7 3.9% 69
UL-Monroe -13.1% -13.3% -12.5% -15.7% -14.4% -16.2% -17.3% -23.0% -24.7% -11.6% 2.0% 109 4.2% 57
UNLV -12.0% -15.8% -15.7% -15.1% -18.3% -17.2% -16.5% -28.6% -26.4% -14.4% 3.0% 40 6.2% 22
USC 18.1% 20.9% 20.0% 15.5% 15.9% 16.2% 11.6% 20.3% 20.2% 2.1% 2.8% 60 4.1% 60
Utah 5.7% 7.9% 8.3% 8.6% 14.9% 7.1% 9.6% 16.0% 16.2% 10.5% 3.3% 29 4.6% 45
Utah State 2.2% -3.5% -2.5% -6.4% -5.5% -7.1% -1.7% 2.0% 3.8% 1.6% 3.0% 38 4.8% 39
UTEP -17.0% -18.4% -16.0% -14.5% -11.6% -13.8% -14.9% -21.7% -21.1% -4.1% 2.4% 91 4.1% 61
UTSA -3.3% -0.2% 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% -3.3% -3.6% -2.7% 0.6% 1.7% 117 1.8% 113
Vanderbilt 1.0% -2.0% -8.9% -10.3% -12.2% -11.2% -10.6% -21.2% -22.1% -23.2% 3.3% 26 6.2% 21
Virginia -0.8% -0.1% 0.2% 2.9% 5.0% 5.4% 6.7% 18.0% 16.5% 17.3% 2.5% 79 6.5% 16
Virginia Tech 11.9% 12.0% 15.6% 11.9% 12.8% 12.9% 13.1% 20.2% 20.4% 8.5% 2.0% 105 4.2% 58
Wake Forest -8.2% -10.7% -9.9% -13.4% -12.3% -10.6% -10.4% -10.4% -11.5% -3.3% 1.4% 127 0.5% 127
Washington 12.3% 9.7% 8.6% 9.7% 5.2% 4.8% 2.1% 8.0% -0.1% -12.3% 3.3% 27 3.5% 79
Washington State 1.4% 0.0% -0.7% -0.1% 1.4% 6.8% 8.2% 3.2% 0.0% -1.4% 2.4% 86 3.7% 75
West Virginia 0.1% -1.0% 2.4% 2.7% 7.2% 13.5% 8.5% 7.5% 20.2% 20.0% 4.3% 5 5.8% 26
Western Kentucky -6.9% -3.2% -3.7% -2.3% -4.8% -1.2% -0.9% -3.2% -8.1% -1.2% 2.4% 85 3.3% 83
Western Michigan -15.1% -14.3% -13.6% -8.3% -6.9% -6.9% -3.2% -3.9% -4.0% 11.1% 1.6% 120 1.6% 118
Wisconsin 15.3% 13.5% 15.0% 13.0% 18.0% 13.6% 6.1% 6.4% 5.9% -9.4% 2.8% 52 3.7% 73
Wyoming -11.5% -10.7% -12.5% -16.0% -15.2% -12.4% -12.3% -20.4% -20.4% -8.9% 2.2% 96 4.7% 42

Teams that change the most

1. Appalachian State (4.8 percent per week)
2. Arizona State (4.6 percent)
3. Duke (4.5 percent)
4. SMU (4.4 percent)
5. West Virginia (4.3 percent)
6. Florida State (4.2 percent)
7. UL-Lafayette (4.2 percent)
8. Florida Atlantic (4.0 percent)
9. Texas A&M (3.9 percent)
10. Oklahoma State (3.9 percent)
11. TCU (3.8 percent)
12. Kent State (3.8 percent)
13. Mississippi State (3.8 percent)
14. Louisiana Tech (3.8 percent)
15. Rutgers (3.8 percent)

This is a nice mix of surprisingly great teams (Mississippi State, TCU), surprisingly terrible teams (SMU, Appalachian State, Kent State), and teams whose seasons have taken a few twists and turns (Arizona State, Duke, West Virginia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Louisiana Tech, Rutgers).

Missouri, by the way, is smack in the middle of this list. The Tigers moved down 4.6 percentage points after their loss to Indiana and moved up 5.6 points after their win over Florida, but haven't actually moved all that much.

Teams that change the least

1. Toledo (1.3 percent per week)
2. Wake Forest (1.4 percent)
3. Navy (1.4 percent)
4. Hawaii (1.5 percent)
5. Old Dominion (1.5 percent)
6. Texas Tech (1.6 percent)
7. Iowa (1.6 percent)
8. Auburn (1.6 percent)
9. Western Michigan (1.6 percent)
10. Texas (1.6 percent)
11. Illinois (1.7 percent)
12. UTSA (1.7 percent)
13. Nevada (1.7 percent)
14. Idaho (1.8 percent)
15. Kansas (1.8 percent)

Here are lots of teams that are what they are, for better (Auburn), worse (Wake Forest, Hawaii, Illinois, Idaho, Kansas), or in between (Toledo, Navy, ODU).

Teams with a small recent standard deviation

1. Middle Tennessee (0.5 percent standard deviation)
2. Wake Forest (0.5 percent)
3. Oregon State (0.7 percent)
4. Georgia Southern (0.8 percent)
5. Akron (0.9 percent)
6. Boise State (0.9 percent)
7. Michigan (1.1 percent)
8. Toledo (1.3 percent)
9. South Carolina (1.4 percent)
10. Memphis (1.5 percent)

Sorry, Michigan and South Carolina. Apparently you are what the numbers say you are (which is to say you're rather disappointing).

Teams with a large recent standard deviation

1. SMU (9.9 percent standard deviation)
2. Appalachian State (9.7 percent)
3. Duke (9.6 percent)
4. Arizona State (8.8 percent)
5. TCU (8.2 percent)
6. Ole Miss (7.9 percent)
7. Texas A&M (7.8 percent)
8. Georgia (7.7 percent)
9. Army (7.5 percent)
10. NIU (7.4 percent)

Some of these teams were either beneficiaries (TCU, Ole Miss) or victims (SMU, Appalachian State, Army) of the seven-week bump. Others have either surged (Georgia, Duke, Arizona State) or plummeted (Texas A&M, NIU) in the last couple of weeks.

This week at SB Nation

MONDAY
Chaos leaves Kansas State and TCU as Big 12's best hopes

TUESDAY
The Numerical, Week 8: Don't forget about Ohio State
Week 8 advanced box scores
Missouri 42, Florida 13: Beyond the box score

WEDNESDAY
Projecting the ACC's 2014 conference race using advanced stats
Updated SEC projections through 8 weeks
Updated Big Ten projections through 8 weeks
Updated Big 12 projections through 8 weeks
Updated Pac-12 projections through 8 weeks

THURSDAY
If Kentucky beats No. 1 Mississippi State, here's why
Week 9 F/+ picks

FRIDAY
Miami is finally getting somewhere. Virginia Tech is not.
The numbers hate Michigan State as 2 big rivalries await
Vanderbilt at Missouri preview: Can Tigers find offensive groove against young 'Dores?

Posted by: Bill Connelly on 24 Oct 2014

2 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2016, 5:02pm by Julian Revell

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